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For those who place emphasis on pacific cycles that rise and fall in approx. 10-15 day phases it is no surprise to see the blocked pattern come under a bit of pressure. Calculated overall tendency of AAM has fallen after the October rise that brought blocking - but the steepness of that fall has been a bit of a surprise (to me at least) The collapse in atmospheric momentum you can see clearly has been steep. This is mirrored in the decline of mountain torque in the same period. The result in the atlantic is a move towards a flatter profile and no doubt storm Oscar has help invigorate the atlantic trough to the point where mild SW winds are now forecast. However the overall pattern globally is anything but flat. Note the resilience of the Euro block (continuing to aid in potential future vortex stress) My call of blocking through to mid month now appears a bit optimistic as this ridge is likely to wane from here, a few days early. But what of the end of November and into December? Note the fairly strong state of the current MJO cycle using Ventrice's useful graphic, and an MJO signal passing through phases 7 - 8 - 1 (remember Snowy Hibbo's call of this being a feature through the season) aiding in retention of a signal for blocking. Returning to the cyclical nature of the pacific we can be sure that the steep decline in relative tendency will bounce back up fairly soon as frictional and then mountain torques reengage. The question is - just how high will momentum bounce up? Given the resilience of the Euro block, and ongoing weakness of the trop vortex, I would guess that even a moderate rise in GLAAM tendency will be sufficient to reinvigorate the blocking pattern given usual lag. I am a lot less confident about picking the exact location of where the block may reemerge, but given the arrival of the east US trough that was discussed a while back I'll take a stab at a retrogressing signal that pulls heights back west from the current European zone, leaving us on the colder side of the block. So I don't think the warm atlantic trough is going to be here for long given the current state of atmospheric momentum and the pacific cycle. Latter third of November to be blocked and chilly once again. And December? The biggest player for me longer term will be the stratospheric vortex and its ability, or not, to descend and tie the troposphere to it. GFS forecasts for substantial invigoration towards month's end are in place - but frankly the sudden transformation of stratospheric forecasts last winter leaves me very suspicious of any attempt to predict vortex impact at a month's range. Personally the longer the Euro high that many on here are irritated at hangs around the better for me, because it increases the chances of distressing the vortex in the longer term via warm air advection into the pole and vertically into the stratosphere. By the start of December we are sure to be seeing the impact of the next drop in GLAAM tendency (back to the pacific cycle again....) but in a Nino year if the vortex remains decoupled and we don't get another Oscar thrown into the mix then there is every chance of the block holding on. Can it remain high enough in latitude to bring sufficient cold for lowland snow? My gut feeling is that we will need to see one more rinse and repeat pacific cycle before this happens....so I'd guess at a return of some atlantic influence into the start of December but in a context that is still rather blocked. So temperatures moderating but not raging zonality. Having said that, atlantic energy in December with blocking around can lead to stalling systems.....and rainfall totals in this scenario can be high as we have seen already this autumn in mid/south Wales. Lots of interest in snow cover, QBO influence, ENSO profile, upper/lower vortex development, MJO strength and phase still to come as we approach winter proper. For sure, however, there is enough potential in the background signals at the moment for all hunting for cold to be optimistic. Great to be entering 3-4 months of core winter wonderland hunting once again.

This is going to be a longgggggggg winter if people keep reacting to every single OP run as if it were gospel. Model confidence is incredibly low right now, I’d say it’s probably not worth paying much attention beyond days 5-7. The time period of interest for me is days 15-20 and given the 00z showed blocking right at the end of the run and the 06z shows wet and windy weather shows you just how pointless it is relying on models that far out. Short term - No cold Long term - Cold likely

November is one of my favourite months when it comes to chart etc watching. It’s the anticipation of a brand new winter ahead as opposed to realistically expecting to see anything notably cold in the offing. Soooo much more relaxing than by mid February in here, or at least, it ought to be. I’m just looking forward to another set of unique Synoptics and what transpires as we head towards and through the coming winter. As always, taking chart outputs as they roll out at face value only, as an indicator of the longer term prospects, is of no use at all. Ensembles, at the very very least, need to be viewed in conjunction with the myriad of daily charts that are being churned out, to help glean a feel of where we might be heading. Regards the snow prospects early winter, unless you live high up on a northern hill, snow before December is a rarity, so there should be no expectations to the contrary. Reference European mountain snow (away from the higher resorts). I don’t see the point in being too concerned early November as, unless we are talking monumental dumpings, it isn’t likely to contribute to the forthcoming winter snow levels. It is only early December onwards when the real nail biting commences for people like me who have gambled on a Christmas break in the Western Alps at just 1,100M Bring on Winter 18/19. I remain hopeful that it will get off to a decent start, as we head through next month

The overall strength of the vortex is being tested by the amount of warmth & flux hitting the pole & moving upwards- The ECM today 12z has moved away from the positive AO scenario it went for at day 10 on the 00z 00z Now 12z There is a lot more waves seen now at day 10 with the main vortex lobe held in situ over Eastern Russia - However the overwhelming interest in terms of cold is for the lobe in situ over russia & then through the central parts of Canada & the mid part of the US- With that in mind & the time of the year ie pre december it would indicate that these areas in the mid term will retain the cold- For the UK - ongoing continued great signs however nothing cold in the immediate future unless we can get undercutting & more of a retrograde high like the GEM... - lowish probability ATM... S

For me The idea of the cold pattern trying to take hold as per the model variation is good....it won’t imo be as quick as GEM unless that passes through as an attempt....but its looking good. Late Nov real cold digging in (E/NE feed) and snow for low level south Uk by months’ end....the switch will be pretty quick when it steps in. BFTP

Well nature can amaze us sometimes 'cause look what happened following that chart @Ed Stone showed from November 1978, this was the end of the month. I can't imagine the forum surviving a month like December 1978 with the amount of toys being thrown out of the pram. Patience is a virtue people. About November 1946 which I mentioned the other day too in an evaluation post on why it's far too early to be getting disappointed, according to this reconstruction of the QBO, 1946-47 was a westerly QBO Winter yet it was also solar maximum. Make of that what you will. Reconstructing_the_Quasi-Biennial_oscillation_back.pdf Another example from history: Early November 1962 (note the blocking to the east of Europe and a displaced Azores High) November 1919, incredible blocking. December 1919, no blocking to be seen and ended up a mild, wet and cloudy Winter following a very cold November. Was a complete write off from a cold perspective, similar to the 1998 example @Weather-history gave above, except 1919 had a November with cold extremes. GFS 06z is not bad, I've seen far worse (millions actually). ECM 0z was not great short term but the displaced Azores High should be noted, like in 1962 ^.

And here's the chart from November 4 1978...Make of it what you will, but I don't see much indication of what followed. Don't write winter off just yet?

Do you have any charts to back this up? Or, is it just saying things people want to hear? It's familiar story at the moment, so a few charts and some explanations would be helpful to the majority of viewers on here.

Agreed - Which is why I have explained my reasoning behind my thoughts on a cold end to the month in a previous post yesterday. Are people forgetting this is the "hunt for cold" thread?

We have to wait, all autumnal types next couple of weeks with increased storminess and hints of southerly tracking LPs / sub LPs ....then ‘I believe’ the switch last 3rd towards a cold dominating theme. Personally I’m ok with what I’m seeing at the moment. BFTP

This is what it was like here on this day in 2012, don't remember it leading to much of a winter. 1946 on the other hand, and the exceptionally warm November......who knew what was just around the corner. Far too early to get despondent at the lack of cold, plenty of time yet for things to improve.

Come on man, it's early November, what do ya expect like seriously? It's not what happens now that matters, it's the prospects of what could happen in a few weeks from now. Wouldn't mind a proper cold, wintry January for a change! Just had a look at the GFS 0z myself, reminds me of November 2009 again. Not your usual zonal pattern, fronts struggling to push west to east.

Re this block, seen here on ICON 12z at T168: And again T180: I just don't think this block is going to move like some of the earlier model runs might suggest, I think the smart money is in continued blocking, probably nothing cold for the UK in the short term, but later... GFS 12z trickling out...watch the block...

100% agree with this, its far better to at least maintain a buckled Jet and a higher number wave pattern as possible, to the average bloke in the street it makes no difference as the weather can be exactly the same and perhaps even wetter than with rampant zonailty but further down the line the differences can be stark.

Hi, which resort are you going to for Christmas ? Yes, this time last year we already had some snow on the piste and preparation was well on time for the seasonal start. So far, this Autumn heading for one of the warmest ever in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. The longer term charts I have been told over here do indicate a strong Polar front to move through much of Europe towards the last 10 days of this month with the establishment of a more northerly block. Should get an update tomorrow morning when I will push for a bit more information from our resort portal forecast team. Fingers cross ! C

Its the one the MO are more than hinting at but of course you know that anyway

Indeed Pete....and what winter did that lead to folks ? BFTP

Morning all, soggy and warm here. Facebook chose to remind me what was happening on this day in 2012, looking at my garden now, still with summer bedding and roses in flower, it's quite a surreal reminder of what things could be like at this time of year.

Outlook - unsettled but with the UK on the westward periphery of the WAA into Europe The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Staying cloudy with patchy rain/drizzle over much of England today as the waving front, stretching from Norway away to the south west, is stationary across central.southern England whilst breezy with showers across western Scotland. But a wave forms on the said front and tracks north during the day bringing rain, perhaps heavy at times, to the south west and Wales. Temps not too bad The wave continues to track NNW into southern Ireland during the evening and the early hours of Monday, taking the front back again towards the north west and taking the rain belt with it, albeit the heavier patch still over the south west and Wales, before clearing later. Through Monday the front still bringing cloud and patchy rain to the north but now dry further south and with the cloud breaking up quite warm with temps above average. But now a familiar story is starting to unfold with the subtropical high in the western Atlantic amplifying and forcing the Atlantic trough into a negative tilt to the west of the UK on Tuesday and thus we have a complex area of low pressure, with a surface low south of Iceland, pushing our old front back east across the country as a weakening cold front with a new frontal complex following behind. Thus wet conditions in the west but very warm in the flow introduced by these changes During Wednesday the new complex frontal structure struggles east across the country so periods of more sustained rainfall give way to squally showers with temps still above normal in much of the country but cooler air is being introduced in the west Tending to be drier in the eastern half of the country on Thursday but more rain arrives in the west as the upper trough grinds slowly east against the block. Still relatively warm in the south east And the NH profile at T120 gives the overall perspective

No charts, I anticipate they’ll show it. I don’t rely on models longer term. Also I said current charts shown hint at the idea ad I can’t post them. My lrf is out there...look at current charts posted or look at by some or look at curent runs they refer to what I’m explaining. BFTP

And the flipside, those eager for early northerly blocking, look at this chart from the November of 20 years ago Look at the northerly blocking there but the following winter was very mediocre for cold and snow lovers. A month later

Personally speaking, I wish the METO wouldn't make these reports public, and I particularly wish the media didn't report them. I've no problem with them analysing what's happened in the past tense, but as soon as that info gets extrapolated into 'what we can expect in the future' I lose the will to live. The general population just read the headlines and for me, as a gardener, it causes endless headaches. My job is still dealing with the headlines of 'we're going to have Mediterranean summers' 'plant drought resistant plants' nonsense that was issued by the METO in one of these reports. Still to this day explaining to clients why Olive trees and Lavender hedges aren't the best idea if you live in the soggy South West, and still replacing dead planting schemes that they insisted on having, based on these METO reports. A little bit of knowledge rarely pays off, I wish these reports were limited to academic circles.

I got chastised a couple of days ago for suggesting some form of westerlies were the most likely outcome at this stage! Still looking that way for the time being. Any cold chances now firmly pushed into the last third of the month at althe earliest now it would seem.....not that its a bad thing.

I mean, please, we're into rocking horse territory with the GFS 18z at T228: Well a horses head is what it looks like to me anyway! Big ridge to our east though , maybe see where this leads.

Even on the arpege its quiet a robust high at 114 hours!!could it be possible that we could see a rapid change to colder weather in the models!!its happened before!!

The point is that it's long range. It may or may not happen. I'm not saying it won't, I'm just suggesting the models don't show any signs of that at the moment. Therefore, it is very hard to predict. When people post a chart of one the GEFS members which show an easterly, they go into snow Armageddon mode. I'm just saying expectations need to be kept in check. This is a hunt for cold thread, not plucking cold out of thin air thread. Anyway end of topic.

yes Mate no good especially for low resorts... Anyway the PM runs are mixed in this high entropy phase - GEM getting a wedge of undercutting ( including the ICON ) - UKMO not so keen- FWIW the GFS have edges towards the undercut at 132 V 138 although its still 50/50 12z V 06z further SE with the low Theres also better heights to the north on the 12z ^^ S

Indeed it is and weather changes all the time but I think instead of chasing for the cold, its always the case a trend need to established in the medium term to have any real confidence in it. Theres been high confidence for a while that the start of November will be a mild one and at times quite exceptionally mild but hints are things will be more Atlantic driven with marginally cooler air although temperatures remaining average. I always say, in terms of looking for cold shots, I rather have Northerlies in the first part of winter rather than easterlies.

I'm definitely with the GEM now

NMM shows parts of the south hitting 17c tomorrow and Tuesday Unlikely to break any records (21.1c & 19.8c) but it would be feeling very pleasant for the time of year

Euro heights signal still exists in the day 10 mean .. and the low heights to the north-west and highish heights over Europe continues right through the extended eps (+NAO set-up)

Firstly that's a super crab with claws out pic! Yes, we definitely want low heights into Southern Europe in the start to winter. This is much more important for putting the chess pieces in place than cold in the UK now. GFS 18z at T240: I think this massive block to our NE may have to be taken seriously.

That's what we wanna be seeing low pressure driving SE into Europe. Dosent do anythink of note on this run but that's what we want more off .

Pub run T276: Shades of the FV3 12z run I would suggest. Good signs at the end of the day. I'm sure there's something in my theory of 0z runs being rubbish and afternoon/evening runs being great! Viva la pub run!

That section northern Russia closed in less than a day....I suspect it wasn’t open water as the picture suggests. Canada has been ice bound for ages....this looks pretty impressive Catch-up BFTP

Thanks for so quickly and succinctly reminding me why I can't be bothered with this part of the forum anymore. Express an opinion (stated as a personal opinion) and there's always someone here ready to leap on it, twist it and put their own spin on it and then argue just for the sake of arguing. I'm never entirely sure whether it's an accidental way of responding, or whether it's a determined effort to keep the circle of views in this area as a tiny group, excluding and deterring anyone else who ventures in. Either way, thank you for saving me from wasting my time and reminding me life really is too short.

But one suggested impact of a quiet Sun, the change in UV levels impacting upon the jet stream, leading it to have a tendency towards being more meridional, does seem to be happening.

Massive change on the 00z ecm op run. Much more mobile and unsettled. Either it has picked up on something or the model is struggling with conflicting signals. The 12z run later today should give us some answers. Will it follow the 00z trend or revert back to something more settled in the extended?

IMO the models are pretty much all over the shop, who thinks that what they show now for next weekend will actually be the weather we get or are they likely to dramatically change by then? I’d say change quite a bit so anybody saying no cold until at least the last third of the month is bonkers. Nobody can say how a whole month will plan out that’s all I’m saying. I pretty confident that huge block to the east will have a much bigger say than is currently showing. enjoy the ups and downs people. Christmas is coming

17 day's blank, 183 for 2018, 60% Solar flux 68

Morning all. Almost tropical like in the mountains this morning. Warmer with height. currently +10C at 2200m asl. Latest fax chart for most of the week indicating much of the same regarding the very mild conditions to persist . The UK not looking good stuck under rinse and spin against the block. By day 7 ,we expect some lower thickness values to seep in from the west, so a slow change to cooler temps in our part of the world. Longer term charts I have been told are similar offerings to UK Met Office forecast for a gradual change to much colder conditions in the last 3rd of the month. However, not privy to view these. So from ski resort preparation point of view its a matter of sit back and wait and see. Certainly not good at the moment in the short to medium term in the hunt for cold and snow. C

20 years ago this morning, wet snow fell down to sea level. Remember it well. First time I had seen falling snow before bonfire night.

Looks like an increasing possibility of an easterly from or soon after mid month !

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9223-met-office-climate-extremes-higher-temperatures-torrential-rain-and-tropical-nights

Is commenting on the rest of us commenting on the models at Day 10 really less stressful than commenting on them directly? meanwhile, 18z dribbling out, here at T102, big polar ridge from Scandi

what the BBC have done in the above article is commonly known as a " Chop-job " , taking sections of the report for dramatic effect , but leaving out any section that are less certain https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/about/state-of-climate the graphs below are from the Met office's own website the BBC state the hottest days are getting hotter it was hot this year ,but it was exceptional , the graph shows that the last 10 years generally are no where near 1975,1976,1990,1995,2003 and 2006 their graphs also show that the number of " Hot " days is declining it also shows that droughts are declining and the very strange statement about " Tropical nights " , nights above 20 degrees , if you look at the Met office map I think it's very likely that they are recording the urban heat island effect , the BBC also don't report sections that talk about dry spells , the 1960's to the 1990's is known to scientists as a " flood poor period " the quote " the longest dry spell of the year for the UK is typically of the order of 20 days , ranging from approximately 17 in the north of Scotland to 24-25 in East England . there is some evidence of a decline of 13 per cent in dry spell duration since the 1980's . however it should be acknowledged that for all the precipitation indices the period 1961 to present is relatively short for diagnosing variability . trends in the UK precipitation are not well represented by a linear trend . the most recent decade has recorded an average longest dry spell for the UK of 18 days compared to the 1981-2010 average of 19.9 days and 20.5 days for the 1961-1990 . in 2017 western areas had shorter dry spells than average , for example 12.7 days for Wales compared to a 1981-2010 average of 19.3 , in contrast some parts of south England coast and central belt of Scotland were above average " I would be careful what I believed from the BBC now their policy has changed towards climate reporting , they can now say anything they like without offering a balanced viewpoint the BBC's recent article on sea level rise is another gem , using Skipsea in North Yorkshire as an example ,,, unfortunately , costal erosion is not sea level rise , so only the hard of thinking would believe that whopper

Hi Pete! The way I see it is if I , a lowly weather nut, can pull up a list of extreme/unusual events across a weather year and see them occur then something predictable must be occurring out there? If it was merely 'random' naturals, year in year out,then it would not be possible but if new forcings were tweaking our atmospheric circulation and leading to a set of responses then all of us would , by looking at recent years , be able to spot the 'new' events that were now a seasonal occurrence? I'm sure you are aware that I used to post quite frequently in the Climate threads ( here and elsewhere) but the changes in 2014 , placing us back into accelerated warming, signalled an end to any thoughts of me 'helping the Lurkers' to better understand what we have facilitated via our polluting. Basically the battle was lost and the climate change deniers won. Now we get to see the kind of world/climate they battled to impose on us for the past two decades? Anyhoos, for me the now 'seasonal' mangling of the trop/strat above the seasonally open waters of the Arctic, is the start of my 'Weather Year'. Forecasts predict the first peturbations of this area of the atmosphere in the coming weeks. It appears that the trop below will surge into the forming Polar Night Jet ( at the 10mba level). The mangling of the circulation will lead to impacts for us all in our hemisphere be it from 'Arctic Plunges' or 'Warm Air Advection'. Let the Games begin!