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Indeed we are just as we were a few days before the winter of 1962/63.

EC clusters this morning are a monumental headache between D10-D15. Clusters 1 and 6 on the cusp of something very cold. And ... looking through the individual ensembles on weather.us, there are already a few ensemble members with cold pools developing to the east - one member even with uppers below minus 22C into Eastern Europe by 15th November, with the cold on a trajectory towards the UK - a bona fide "Beast From The East" before winter has even begun!! However, clusters 2 and 4 possibly very mild, though cluster 4 with potential to develop into a cool continental There's blocking going north somewhere, but where? Is that low really going to hold out to the west (surely not for too long)? I'd be very suspicious of ensemble means right now. They are masking extreme scenarios!!

Two words to some up the 18z GEFS - NORTHERN BLOCKING

Ecm is a little like strategically placing you'e chess pieces before the final attack blocking prevalent and at 240h heights edging towards the pole like chess patience is key

P1 brings back memories of 2010 P3 P4 P7 P9 P16

I agree with your 'extreme' flag ups.. However as you know MWB- The ens will be the overall decipher in mixing out options... And given the current stats-situs...somethings about to fall off the cliff.... And the nxt 7 days will note 1 extreme or other. I think my bets are placed well

Some mouth watering ens - i love these ttypes of setups i do - these are the ones that have a chance of ending up with record breaking upper cold pooling as the fetch of air into the continent can be so long in the end. EDIT : and right on cue - would surely be a jan 87 if it went 72 hours further Or a Feb / March 18 of course!

Not saying it will happen, but the ECM evolution today has shades of mid Nov 2010, when we saw the trough anchor on a negative tilt, becoming a cut off low feature, with heights quickly wrapping in behind over the atlantic, and with heights strong to the NE both quickly joined forces, combined with heights building out of russia, and we know what happened next. Whilst the models are showing the atlantic ruling the roost in the days ahead, it isn't in normal fashion - far from the zonal onslaught at a time when it should be nearing its peak.

P9 P7 P11 P12 P13 P15

Outlook – remaining changeable with temps slowly on the up The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Today starts with quite a widespread frost in many areas with fog patches but warming a tad in the west where cloud from the front(s) has encroached with patchy rain into NW/W areas.This rain will make slow inroads east during the day but not getting that far so temps in the east much better than yesterday. During the evening and overnight the band of rain will continue to track east and another band will also move north across the south east associated with another frontal system So through Thursday cloud and rain will continue to effect central and eastern England with clearer weather and showers elsewhere. By Friday the fronts and rain have cleared to be replaced by a transient ridge thus a dry and fairly sunny day, albeit the temps no great shakes. But out to west the deep low has arrived on the scene tracking north east and strengthening wind and rain from the associated front will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland by Friday evening. By midday Saturday the low is 959mb NW of Ireland with the cold front across eastern Scotland and down the Irish Sea, It's fair to say the track and timing of this low has been a bit of a headache. Thus quite strong south westerly winds across the UK but stronger in the NW/W which is where much of the rain is also concentrated. And the south westerly airflow has introduced warmer air across the UK And by Sunday we are back in familiar territory with the low now away to the north east. Amplification of the high pressure to the west, in combination with the block to the east, once again forcing the next trough south east leaving the UK generally unsettled with patchy rain around with temps around average, perhaps a tad above. And the NH profile at T120

Bear in mind at this time of the year uppers may not represent surface temperatures so well due to the potential for temperature inversions. Cut off the humid Atlantic flow, temperatures could struggle. Warm uppers mean may not mean that much if the continent is cooling and temperatures are allowed to drop at night. Though in this run some genuinely warm air does come along for mid November. Plenty of cold pooling to our east on the OP but you just have to go east of Europe to find it......

There’s definitely something of note for cold lovers considering that block is forcing the jet south, nice building blocks but no cold imminent which is okay! I’d rather have a few weeks transition if it means a long lasting, severe cold spell ?️

Like-or loathe...its that atlantic energy formats...in the trough/troughs...that will further aid-advancing WAA into large scale eastern euro/scandinavia...then more deeply into the pole as we gain. Bringing more favourable synops-later into november.... That all without the mention of other parameters at 'certain geographical points'-@northern hem. Its a very good all round evolving pattern....and at the correct time placements... Cross ensembles will be of upmost decipher as the above mentioned begins the play-out process !!! Id expect a strong signal of this even in mid term ens rather soon...with a note of decline.....

ECM T216: The important thing at this stage is the degree of northern blocking, conditions for the UK are not really relevant, we are looking at building conditions for winter weather down the line, not now, it's still October, well for a few hours! And ECM T240 is well blocked:

Not one foggy night or day this October IMBY be lucky to even see sleet if the OFI is accurate, let's hope it's about as accurate as the OPI

Another belter from the express UK weather forecast: European SNOW CLOUD to chill UK with FREEZING winds THE UK is in the grips of a cold snap, and now a European snow cloud is poised to hit Britain with freezing winds. "This week temperatures will struggle to reach above 10C as winter well and truly sets in" https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1038484/UK-weather-forecast-European-snow-cloud-snow-radar-forecast-met-office-long-range

11.0 to the 30th 0.3 above the 61 to 90 average 0.3 above the 81 to 10 average  __________________________________ Current low this month 9.8 to the 1st Current high this month 13.4 to the 5th & 13th

That is one big block . Something is brewing my cold hunters .

What's the ecm up to here much better run at 168h

Cold start but warmed up a bit - had late breakfast in Cobham, sat outside and it was a strange procession of either people in shorts and capped sleeved tops looking sporty, or fur trimmed hats and coats with people thinking it was winter. Lovely late afternoon walk on Esher Common.

Or indeed the FLW. Front Loaded Winter.... Grrrrrrr.

The (adjusted) index can't really drop below 65 because that's the background radio emission from the Sun.

A lovely crisp, frosty morning here with no cloud and not even a hint of breeze. Finally a decent frost too with air temps down to -0.2C, so lawn and roofs white and bird bath frozen over. Here's how the minimums look across the Region: Chart courtesy of @danholley_. Weatherquest.

This quite chilly spell looks like ending at the weekend as the approach of ex-ts Oscar heads towards the north west of the UK turning the winds to south westerly. Fax for T72hrs shows the expected picture by Friday, The blocking Euro ridge thereafter helping to maintain the milder conditions going into next week as the Atlantic lows slow to our west. ECM mean at Day 8 By this point we are on the warmer side of the pattern which looks to become slow moving for a while so we can expect fronts becoming slow moving as they come up against the block with rain affecting particularly the western side of the UK at times. It's not unusual to see a Euro ridge and Atlantic trough disruption at this time of year.The current eastern block though can flatter to deceive as it is unlikely to get cold from the east with this sort of alignment of the main players especially with the Atlantic trough fairly close by pushing those south westerlies in.

I would imagine this link being useful to some of you ski mad nuts! https://www.ski-lifts.com/blog/european-ski-season-dates-2017-18/ I''l be in my usual place 2 days after the Lauberhorn downhill, but walking only, time to hang up the boots and skis sadly, not bad I did ski up to being 78, very gently latterly mind you. For those who might look in here and wonder about trying, you will either be hooked within 2 or 3 days or never do it again. Give it a try it really is great.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN GUYS????

Good to be back for the silly season, solar min i'm excited, here's one of my recent time lapses from the Swansea Valley, some nice inversions in there....

Loving this ecm 12z run... For highlight of both divergence...and miss -interp. The momentum- and forcing is a classic... I'll ellaborate @runs end....

Bought a nice pumpkin for £3 - did a minimalistic design and used one of my red led fishing rod tip lights.

Just looked at gfs 12z, can see why theres no comments on that!

That cold end to November has moved from a regular probably below average to likely to be cold today. Are the signals strengthening?

Well i must confess i was a bit underwhelmed wirh EC 00 det,but Exeter putting a bit more stock in the colder drier high pressure scenario for mid November onwards so thats good news, if you like these conditions of course.

No signal of any northern blocking there. Looks like a euro high will take up residence for early part of winter. Quite mild, misty and generally uneventful. Usual fayre to be honest.

Couple of colder options from the ensembles. However, most go for high pressure to build near or over the UK leaving us on the much drier, colder, crisp side.

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018: Further changeable weather is likely at first, although this may continue to become confined to the north and northwest allowing many areas to continue to turn drier and more settled. This will bring some fine weather by day, but with an increased chance of frost and fog overnight, which may be slow to clear through the mornings. After a milder start, the second half of November is likely to turn colder with temperatures becoming below average, with any milder interludes generally becoming short-lived. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Still a lot of mild air flowing through Europe

Gorgeous clear morning, sunny skies, light winds and with a chilly start but the temperature has already reached 9C here. The sunlight is showing off the autumn colours nicely.

-1.8.c this morning according to my unreliable window thermometer, lovely crisp morning. Those low temps are kicking off a leaf fall despite no breeze, it's a beautiful autumn morning. We complete on our flat today and by tonight we'll be renters in our former home as we sold to an investor and are now his first tenants until we find somewhere new. This process started in the 30.c heat of July, now look at it! While I'm looking forward living in a house and to a weather station, barbeque and not hauling the shopping up 3 flights of stairs, unless I win the lottery tomorrow, I very much doubt I'll be living amongst the tall trees and sweeping lawn of the communal garden of the former hotel these flats are built on. It's been a privilege to watch the leave fall and the squirrels building nests and I mill miss that enormously. It's November tomorrow - winter weather watching - yay! But I don't know whether to follow the main model thread...or the hunt for cold thread!!

Yes, little sign of any cold yet.

My low of the season so far with an overnight -3.1C I think it is my 3rd frost with one at +0.1C. Good start to the year.. MIA

The latest snow chart.

Hit -4.9C here, lovely frosty morning!

13 day's blank, 179 day's for 2018 59% Solar flux 68

Seems to be a feature this year February 21st: 3.8 ends 2.9 April 24th: 10.3 ends 9.8 August 22nd: 17.8C ends 16.6C September 20th: 15.3C ends 13.8C October 25th ~12.2C might end sub 11.0C

Thank you for such kind comments. I will enjoy reading about your ski holidays and the other folk, so long as you send photos!

Surprisingly, i'm down to -0.7°C now. I've just had a look back on previous data and that looks to be the coldest October temp I have recorded since 2011.

We were at Garsons Farm too yesterday, enjoying the Christmas displays and buying pumpkins from the farm shop rather than picking them! As you say, it's all starting to look quite bare over there. It was a beautiful autumn day to walk through the woodlands; the recent blue skies and sunshine weather has been great. Autumn proper is here:)

Love this time of year as Winter approaches and the anticipation grows from a coldies pov.Am always in awe of the knowledge and reading of the models by our senior members(they know who they are) which helps the less knowledgble like myself to keep on learning.I think having read quite a bit on this coming winter we are in a much more favourable position for some cold spells before xmas this year.With a weak/moderate El Nino(maybe Modoki),low sun activity bordering on dormant,a possible SSW in the making, a fairly weak Atlantic at the moment finding it difficult to make inroads against the Huge High to the East which has been there for months it seems and i think statistically we are in pretty good shape.No guarantees of course as i believe there are no such things when it comes to the weather but i do get the feeling we could be in business in terms of cold and snow this year.With that will come the usual meltdown in the forums if this occurs but remember if we miss out in terms of cold and snow lets keep it civil in here guys.WE have the next 5 months to look forward to and lets hope come the end of March we will be looking back at a memorable winter if snow is your thing

Lots of Twitter activity these past few days on the potential (or not) of some disruption to the Strat PV (SPV) as we move into November. A couple more tweets to add to those above: Simon Lee 29 Oct: Jason Furtado 30 Oct: The stratosphere and troposphere are currently decoupled and this morning's Berlin output suggests that in the forecast period it's not the stratosphere's zonal westerly winds descending, but rather the influence of the troposphere pattern pushing up into the lower stratosphere: 20 Oct 03 Nov 08 Nov The ECM forecast blocking pattern is looking favourable for Wave 1 disruption to the SPV with suggestions of elongation and displacement off the Pole towards the Siberian side late in the forecast. ECM 500Hpa 09 Nov 10hPa Geo + Temp 08 Nov 30th Oct GFS forecast Wave activity and amplitude: Wave charts: http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-wave-series/ Further info in the paper Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events. Illustrative charts: Displacement v Split blocking patterns: Displacement v Split Wave activity: Link to paper via: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/959-blocking-precursors-to-stratospheric-sudden-warming-events/

Most amusing automated Met Office update on my phone this morning! Sadly I jumped out of bed in anticipation: Unsurprisingly it wasn't snowing!! Still a bit of frost but considerably milder than yesterday morning.