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OMG. What a time to be a weather enthusiast! After some of the most eventful weather conditions to come our way in recent years showing up in just the last nine months alone, we now have the following charts on view in the pretty reliable short term - and it's not even November yet!! UKMO ECM GFS GEM. . Surely this is the stuff of deep mid-winter? No, it's just 144 hours away. But the best thing is, it's brought back all the old NW Coldies to move this thread along at three pages a day and more. Fantastic reading, hours of fun, informative, educational and sometime hilarious posts galore. You just can't buy this stuff with money. Thanks to everyone out there taking the trouble to make their thoughts known to us all - and helping me to understand a little more about this wonderful, chaotic, unpredictable thing we call WEATHER!

I see meteo france are going for a cold winter for the UK with euro troughing a plenty!!

Some early cloud here but that soon cleared, it’s now a gorgeous Autumn day with loads of sunshine and blue sky. Went for a long walk in Windsor Great Park, lovely part of the world.

EC clusters continue to favour anomalous heights somewhere to our north for early November (clusters 1/2, 69% of ensembles)

It looked good at the start then i think it got something in it's eye lol but like i said,look no further(as we all know)FL is less than 144 we get the northerly and easterly of sorts,what follows is crytal ball time... me:-mystic meg what is on the table? mystic meg:-a cup of tea,bird seed or left over bits from your daughter's tea me:-what should we be looking at this winter? mystic meg:-maybe getting out and about instead of looking at your monitor 24/7 me:-why? mystic meg:-because that is why you have got dry eye syndrome me:- and what causes that? mystic meg:-by concentrating too much and looking at the monitor me:-i am going to keep on looking at the monitor cos the synoptics are looking good mystic meg:-you will get synoptic eye syndrome me:-

If we run the averaged height anomalies through from day 8-16 we can see that there is an exchange between Scandi-E Canada in terms of where the most significant height anomalies are placed Day 8... Day 16... The upshot of this? Well with luck we'll see heights transfer once again across to Scandi. As long as we keep anomalous heights N of the UK, we're laughing for longer.

It's great to see the building blocks slowly falling into place...but, as the other cliche goes, let's get the cold in first and the snow will surely follow...?

Today marks the last day before the transition to another regime and much colder air gets underway in earnest as can be seen below. The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight As can be seen everything is already in place for the upcoming transition with the upper trough in position over Greenland with the surface low and cold front in the Denmark Strait and south of Iceland. Meanwhile nearer home the high pressure is still in charge but due to the orientation of the high cell and the proximity of another front it will still be quite windy over Scotland today with some patchy rain/drizzle which may also occur in western regions further south during the day. But elsewhere, and where the cloud breaks, not a bad day and fairly mild. But by 1800 the aforementioned low has tracked west of Norway and the waving cold front is over the Hebrides By midnight the front has nudged south with some patchy rain into western Scotland and still quite breezy. By midday Thursday the waving front is straddled across northern Scotland and heavier and more persistent rain will effect most of Scotland and the north west of England by evening. But further south where there will be less cloud and lighter winds still a not bad day with temps around average or a tad above. Overnight and through Friday the developing wave will track east to southern Sweden whilst the cold front tracks south east accompanied by patchy rain and with colder air in it's wake, clearing the south coast by midday. But in the now strong northerly airstream there are other fronts/troughs tracking south in the circulation and these will bring wintry showers with them, snow on the hills in the north, and even colder air. The very cold air is well established by Saturday with widespread frosts and a nasty wind chill in the strong winds, Plus some very heft showers which will be concentrated more in the north and around the coasts with a mixture of snow. hail and thunder But by Sunday the ridge that has amplified to the west has come under pressure from a new upper trough tracking east and has ridged north east across the UK thus negating the northerly flow and though still a cold day, a tad warmer in the south east with much of the wintry shower activity confined to eastern coasts and the south east And this is the state of play at T120

Oooof! *drools profusely*

To summarize Frédérick Decker goes for a less cold November than anticipated. December is forecast to be cold and snowy in the UK, January very cold and dry in the UK and very snowy in France with the cold even reaching Spain. In February the cold should relax somewhat.

I must disagree, I always look forward to a very cold guy fawkes night where you can see your own breath.

Ok its 2 days on from the last report. Had a chat this morning with our guys and yes, its a nightmare scenario for Alpine forecasting this weekend and into early part next week. The UKMO fax chart at 84t shows the problem being the Arctic front returning as a warm front. Generally, re-curving fronts bring warmer air mass to the lower layers , whilst higher up the air mass remains unchanged for a longer period ( from its original source Pm/Am in this case ) Also, added complication is the exact limit of the cold front . Snow forecasting with height is going to be very borderline. A two model scenario was used with a frontal boundary difference of 100miles , approx. based on the fax chart below and have produced extreme results . One model showing 100cm of snowfall and the other almost zero. So there lies the problem for our mountain forecasters. Again, short range fine mesh model will not become effective until 48 hours before arrival of the front from the NW. Beyond weekend , looks a forecasting dilemma over the Alpine region as extreme air mass battle ground evolves. The view from over here is for a build of a cold the Scandinavian High ( see 528 dam area forecast chart below ). Where we go from here? Basically the answers is Don't know as is the short term snow forecast for the Alpine Region. All very exciting from a forecasting point of view.

Evening all just a quick one from me as i am suffering an eye problem due to being diagnosed with dry eye syndrome(grittyness in the eyes) and is quiet sore at the mo the latest from cpc looks encouraging this evening both the 6-10 and 8-14 days http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php NAO/AO both of these was forecasted to go neutral to slightly positive last evening but now we have a secondary dip esp the AO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Dutch de-built ens are showing all members going for easterly winds from Saturday through till Monday evening,what happens after that is anyones guess https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim so there we have it,a northerly is cert and the easterly looks cert but beyond that,we will find out going to put some more eyedrops in now?️ and crack open some more beers

two pics that show the current formats !!!.. And compare in view...perfectly !!

CFS looks bang on to me

His background is a map of Europe. Badum tish. Seriously though, there's more here: https://www.lameteo.org/index.php/previsions-meteo/tendances-saisonnieres

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Nov 2018 to Thursday 22 Nov 2018: Confidence through the period is low, but there are weak signals for high pressure to be dominant to the north and east of the UK, bringing largely settled conditions. This may result in below-average temperatures and a greater risk of overnight frost, particularly in longer settled spells. Snow is also possible over higher ground, especially in the north. Milder, wetter spells are likely to be short lived as we move towards the middle of November. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Hopefully we see the zonal wind forecast drop further... The decline is being shown at 30hpa in FI GFS

Hmmmm... I never said "there would be no blocking anywhere" but the models are trending towards an unsettled period of weather, as per my post. The chart above? Low pressure dominating the UK. ECM this morning? Low pressure dominating. UKMO? Low pressure dominating. It'd be hard to argue against the UK seeing an unsettled period beyond the weekends initial Northerly given the consistency.

Here is my updated plot with SSW markers included. The SSW markers on top are colour coded by their respective ENSO phase.

The last hurrah for warm sunshine today I fear, certainly for the next few days at least. Not a bad way to bow out though, blue skies and 19.3c locally, and with barely a breath of wind it felt even warmer. 10/10.

No great confidence in the 500 mb anomaly charts, see their latest below. However they do all 3 show troughing as the main feature in the UK area, albeit EC-GFS having a cut off from the main trough which NOAA does not show. The 8-14 NOAA shows no sign of any ridging with a broad trough centred just WSW of the UK from an Atlantic westerly its main feature. This indicates a diffluent trough so surface features developing in the flow may deepen markedly near to the UK? (diffluent simply means the flow decreases into the trough, confluent means it increases) Fence sitting time for me! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Interesting that she's actually creating a web page for this, but this chart and others were running last winter, I linked them earlier in this thread. Here is the one in the tweet (a bit glitchy for some reason) The updated one is here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/waveUT.gif Temperature wave (anomaly) - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/TwaveAmp.gif - there is also a geopotential version but not working at the moment GEFS timeseries - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/test_GEFSellipse_timeseries.html lliptical diagnostics of the GFS/GEFS - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/GEFSellipseFcast_update.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/realtimeVortex/GFSellipseFcast.html http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/GEFSellipseFcast.html found from noseying around her Uni of Albany directory - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/andrea/webmaps/?C=M;O=D The GEFS ellipse charts show that some members appear to predict a split in the lower strat.

The evolution next week is complex and a long way from being settled. The ecm this morning is similar to last evening in that that the incoming upper trough splits the ridge as it tracks south east, courtesy of ridge amplification in the western Atlantic, which creates the cut off upper cell to the north which then links to the European ridge. It continues south east into Iberia whilst at the same time our current trough swings north into the North Sea along the western flank of the ridge with the UK sitting in the middle of all the action. Thus probably unsettled with temps a tad below normal but the detail will be a nightmare to sort

Bonfire Night is T+300..... far too far away to be worrrying about wind and rain yet.

Getting some impressive drifts in front of my garage already, of leaves. The strong wind of the last 2 days doing a much better job of piling them all up neatly than I could ever achieve. Despite the cold forecast coming up i doubt they'll be replaced by snow drifts. Might see a flurry here, but I'm in Glasgow area at the weekend so sods law is I'll miss it.

What we are seeing is a move away from the hinting of record warmth to a potential forward moving of attempt after attempt of a cold pattern and reloading wanting to take hold. This for me is what we seek, with a more ‘apparent’ route as we head to deep Nov. Encouraging indeed Welcome to the LIA Footprint.....it is upon us BFTP

Couldn't agree more. October into November is ALL about getting the correct synoptics to force a disorganised trop vortex come December...

Looks like a couple more generally bright and settled days to come, mostly over Southern areas, with models showing High Pressure being invasive over the South-Western areas of the UK. Knocker and some of the others go in great detail regarding the weather for next few days, so will keep it brief. Today does indeed seem to be the warmest day (feels very mild right now), according to the GFS UK Maximum Temperature charts: The warm temperatures reserved for South and Eastern areas of the U.K. Best to make what you can of today and possibly tomorrow, as the very mild temperatures for South and Eastern parts are going to get snatched away. You can see on those 06Z GFS 500mb and Sea Level Pressure charts, lower pressure and lower heights will dig down from the North. This squeezes the Western/South-Western UK High Pressure out further West with it amplifying in the Atlantic. A chillier flow floods down from the Arctic on Friday with sunshine and showers for places. Wintry I suspect over the Northern hills. All the models in brill agreement for this Northerly now and does look certain. This is what the various operational models show for Saturday. 06Z GFS: 00Z ECMWF: 00Z GEM: 06Z ICON: 00Z NAVGEM: All show a cold plunge from the North with the Atlantic High Pressure ridge poking into Eastern Greenland. They do all show very minor differences from one another as you would expect at that sort of time-frame. The Atlantic ridge, for example, seems the most amplified on both 00Z NAVGEM and 00Z ECMWF runs. For some reason, the 00Z UKMO completely disagrees and thinks everywhere could be covered in snow... The UKMO must have had too many drinks at the pub with the 18Z GFS last night and didn’t get a good night’s sleep. Most likeky just a glitch as to how it came out at 72 hours on Wetterzentrale for that particular run. Main thing, however, is support for an Arctic blast looks rock-solid for this weekend with a transformation in the weather; cold nights, frosty mornings, a chilly, blustery, Northerly wind and a chance for some wintry weather in places. Mostly of sleet and snow over high ground, but some heavier showers could drag the sleet and snow line to down lower levels at times. Low level sleet and snow probably most likely just for Northern areas of the UK, which would see the coldest conditions. Away from the showers, it could be bright and sunny at times, particularly over in-land areas of the U.K away from Eastern and Western coastel areas (this Friday, though, would probably see rain and hail showers streaming through the Midlands from the Cheshire Gap via a North-Westerly flow). Be quite a change from what we’ve been used to.

Change the settings and you can get subtitles in English. particularly like this part.

I think the sceuro upper ridge seems pretty secure by day 10 - it would seem that troughing around our longtitude is unavoidable given the Azores ridge to our west is likely to also be more on a N/S axis from the coldies perspective this is a decent evolution with WAA being pumped into the arctic to our NNE - better to have this set up in early November than a wishy washy early season northerly ......

THank you for submitting that video. If that comes off it will be brilliant.

What is interesting is no pattern is sustained. And lows hitting a wall and diving south so eventually in time maybe the vortex will continue to be disrupted. So far things are looking like something is brewing. But this time round not likely to cause winter wonderland. But if we can continue with disrupted vortex then confidence grows, and a winter wonderland could pop up mid November into December. Jet stream is certainly on a better southerly track so far. Will this year be the start of colder run of winters last solar minimum delivered nicely. All very nice to see these charts recently at least it's not boring. So cold rain wind precipitation above average I'd thought temps below going back to normal slightly above in any southerly or southwest flow. But I'd thought some serious rainfall totals especially in the south and southwest.

Yes the winter 2018/19 thread PS I dont speak French but the graphics say it all, easterlies!!

Snow cover is relatively low compared to recent mammoth years. It is not radically behind average. Bear in mind that 2009, 2014 and 2016 had more or less record totals.

I was going to say something about the weather but I am just sooo bored with it I can't be harrised. 12c. I think.....

All looks a bit messy post +144 this morning. ECM and UKMO both in good agreement at D6, GFS not far off. Extended colder spell following the Northerly this weekend, looking very much the outside bet this morning.

bit quite in here this morning,models not showing cold lingering on any more or something? Fl remember starts at about t plus144 not at plus 300 or whatever.

Yes, but this is wildly, wildly off topic. We will start with the easy bit. When a post is created containing an image, the software takes its own local copy of a scaled down version and serves that up, and links to the full sized one elsewhere on the internet. The image in the post was linked to the "curnow" (that is, most up to date) version of the snow+ice map. The snapshot was taken on the day of the post, while clicking through gets you the actual, current version for right now. To avoid this, the archived version with a datestamp in its name should be preferred. Now the harder to understand bit. In order to ensure the security and authenticity of a website, we use a system called TLS (Transport layer Security), built on a system called Public Key Cryptography. Public Key Cryptography allows us to break keys down into a secret and a non-secret component, which are effectively interchangeable. Anything encrypted using a public (nonsecret) key may be decrypted using the secret key, and anything encrypted using the secret key may be decrypted using the public key. For encryption purposes, you would normally encrypt with the public key, and the recipient would decrypt using their secret (or private) key. However, if you turn this on its head, and encrypt something with your private key, so that ther people can decrypt it with your public key, then you arrive in a situation where the payload is not secret (everyone can decrypt it) but they can be confident that it genuinely came from you, because only you know your secret key, and therefore nobody else could possibly have used it for encryption. HOWEVER, how do you know that the secret key actually belongs to www.natice.noaa.gov? I mean, anybody could create a key pair claiming to be them, and serve up anything. There is no assurance of identity. To solve this problem, we use a system of signed keys, which terminate with a trusted third party, The www.natice.noaa.gov public key is signed by the private key of the certificate issuer. The certificate issuer's public key is then signed by a more "trusted" key, until in the end you arrive at the root key. Now, if everybody trusts this root key (we all do: our web browsers ship with a list of trusted keys), then we can validate each public key in turn from the root right down to www.natice.noaa.gov But, how do we get our hands on that chain of keys? Simple, www.natice.noaa.gov sends them to us. Yep. All of the public keys in that whole chain. This is the only way to be sure that browsers can authenticate the trust relationship and be sure their encrypted traffic really is going to www.natice.noaa.gov.uk. So, what do you think happens if it turns out that NOAA screwed up and are either not serving up this chain, or are serving up the wrong chain? Yep, you guessed it: if your browser doesn't trust the key which signed www.natice.noaa.gov, then it craps out and asks you what you want to do. And that is exactly what is happening here (it looks to me like they aren't serving the chain at all, but I might be wrong; it's gone 1am here ...).

18Z looks pretty awful for bonfire night weekend!! Atlantic wind and rain- YUK!! On a brighter note this coming weekend looks beautiful with cold northerly winds to do away with those horrid wasps!!!

This is looking good at 144 with more WAA into the north(black arrow),more trough disruption(red arrow),better height's to our NE and the Genoa low more to the east(brown circle). but i look no further as it's a mess,but saying that the 144 hr chart is miles different to the 12z anyway so a lot to be resolved still before then.

Just so long as we see things edging away from full-blown zonality, I'm happy, Fred...As you say: it's encouraging.

While we wait for ECM's latest offerings we have what I can only describe as an amazing red sky with the sun setting in the west and the crazy full moon up in the east - and a cool to cold feeling in the air lol

Mad charts!!!! Haven't ever seen it so busy in here in October before, lol!! After a wonderful summer of sun and heat, it's great to be back in here following the search for cold and snow! Thank you to all the knowledgeable people who post so clearly and help people like me understand so much more year on year - and get excited with It!!! Tee hee!!x

Tentative hints from GFS moving towards a milder/warmer outlook for a lot of Europe as we leave October and move into November

2nd run in a row from ECM which shows milder/warmer air flooding north through Europe and towards the UK as we leave October and go into November

This would bring some pretty exceptional warmth to parts of Europe for the time of year if it came off with winds coming up from Africa T-Shirt weather for Halloween

Great to see Knocker posting in a longer term model thread again As this post is not strictly focusing on cold potential, I shall stick it in here. Out to T300 on the clusters - a split. 22 members still trying to maintain some sort of northern blocking especially near to Scandi (not too convincing though) with possibilities for cold being maintained, 16 members stick us between westerly source and SEly (uncertain if cold or mild), and 13 members give the main trough license to move freely to our north, bringing in milder westerlies.

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 12.4C to the 22nd... +1.2 (9.3: -0.6) 12.3C to the 23rd... +1.2 (10.8: +1.2) 12.3C to the 24th... +1.3 (12.4: +3.0) 12.2C to the 25th... +1.2 (9.1: -0.3) 12.0C to the 26th... +1.1 (7.6: -2.0) 11.7C to the 27th... +0.8 (3.6: -6.2) 11.5C to the 28th... +0.6 (5.2: -4.6) 11.2C to the 29th... +0.4 (3.1: -5.8) 11.0C to the 30th... +0.2 (4.9: -4.3) 10.8C to the 31st... +0.1 (6.5: -2.8) The first cool/cold spell of the Autumn now just coming into the reliable time frame, and looks set to bring the CET crashing back to average by months end. No daily records appear under threat currently, so little more than a regular late October cold spell.