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-10c breached on a GEFS member for my area for first time this season, -12c for Scotland.

Anyone else think this looks like a torpedo? We have been waiting...

People are getting too hung up again on the 10hPa zonal wind at this early stage - only a month ago it was looking weak and now it's strong. The 12z GFS shows how quickly things could change from above average to below throughout the depth of the atmosphere - Looking longer term strongest wind for October 20th in the MERRA2 dataset was 20/10/1981 - this was followed by the very early SSW on December 4th (and the bitter weather that ensued). And it just so happens, 20/10/1981 is the closest 30-day analogue to 18/10/2018 for 10hPa zonal wind - A couple of days later, the strongest zonal wind for 22nd October was 1998 and is the 3rd closest analogue to 18/10/18 - this year also had an early SSW on 15th December. Not necessarily a prediction for this year but an indication of what can happen.

UKMO 144 is VERY sharp with the amplification & trough Surely the first boom chart of the year !

The 06Z GFS is starting to come out (and it’s true that the ECMWF shows one), but: 0Z GFS (GEFS) Perturbation No. 16! Also, having had a little look at the 00Z GEFS postage stamps, Perturbation No. 1 shows quite a chilly Northerly around a similar sort of time (Tuesday 30th October). While it is far into the run with some varied solutions to be expected, a fair few do show some kind of High Pressure in the Atlantic (some amplified, too) with some keeping the High over the U.K. Not to be taken too seriously at that range, but cool to see.

Updated Accu Forecast, just released. In all seriousness though, their attempts at this are a complete joke. We are either wet or stormy, the one time they opted for something different in 15/16 (cold spells) the winter was the 3rd warmest on record.

Morning all. This picture below taken in the village last season and news today is that the resort will open on 1st December to start the ski-ing season ( subject to decent snow cover of course ) Good news from our Portal Weather Service provider is encouraging for a early cold spell, starting next week ! After weeks of warmth , a abrupt change from Summer to Winter conditions in the mountains by the last week of October. A deep trough over the Arctic Region should eventually move towards Scandinavia early next week. Both the Atlantic ridge and North European trough likely to intensify and should result in the sharpening of the cold front. Cold air advection will follow into parts of Eastern /Central Europe for a time. The model used for snow depth forecasting indicates 30cm of fresh snowfall in our range of mountains by 31st October (40%) probability rate. Most global models in agreement at 144t but variations at 240t shown on ECM /GFS outcome. The view from over here and their own model indicates something more along the lines shown by GFS , but overall its going to get colder and that more than likely includes the UK . To early for the fine mesh model to give precise snow accumulations in resort but one we will be watching with anticipation next Monday/ Tuesday. C

A glancing blow is better than no blow!!Great to see potential for our first Arctic cold snap towards the end of next week on the Gfs 6z operational..a bit more westward correction would put us in the bullseye for a wintry spell..fingers crossed!

Direct hit on tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean..lovely jubbly..or perfick!!..I'm ready for some cold!!!

^^ PTB 20 is about as perfect as you can get with the delicate balance of the atlantic approaching the UK but not breaking down the cold air in situ... If only... Also to add- post next week any cold air into the continent can stay cold in situ & to a point you can get lower 850s from the East in slack air- Our time is coming..

Strongest signal yet from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean for our first of hopefully many arctic incursions during the months ahead!!❄

^^^ Alligned to the UKMO with a nice negative tilt @144 Cold marching south @168.... Snow showers Friday over Scotland dropping to lower levels..

Another successful hunting trip for cold on the Ecm 00z!!!

Nice from the ECM this morning. Hello winter . Good bye summer .

Whilst I appreciate the excitement of the current outlooks. The only real use I can see for them is in cooling the continent down ready for any possible easterlies down the line. Cracking winter synoptics at the beginning of November seem like wasted winter synoptics for the uk to me really Last third of November a la 2010 and I,d be much more excited. I remember a cold and snowy start to November 1980 but it didn't herald anything special at all.

Plenty of the GEFS members going for a cool/cold pattern as we head into November. I like the direction P20 is heading with the high pressure developing into Greenland, if we can get a nice cold pool out to the east we could be in business for some early season snowfall. (Yes its FI but worth keeping an eye on)

Nothing particularly to add to previous brief summations of the outlook. With the center of the high pressure remaining to the SW/W, and at sufficient distance for the period, the quite marked N/S divide will continue as systems can run around to the north of the high cell on the strong upper flow and infiltrate the former. The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and WV image for 0300 As can be seen the cloud associated with the approaching trough/occlusion has already encroached the north thus under this temps have not fallen as far as further south where some mist and fog patches will be around first thing. And following on from this they will clear fairly quickly giving a clear and sunny day for much of England and Wales. But rain associated with the front is already into N. Ireland and western Scotland and this will track slowly south east with the front during the day but tending to fizzle out en route. Overnight the movement of decaying front, which is now just a cloudy feature, more or less ceases but the western section does push back north as the connected next frontal system approaches from the west and thus rain returns to north west Scotland by the early hours. Through Saturday the aforementioned frontal system duly arrives bringing rain and strong winds the N. Ireland. western Scotland and the north west of England. But this south west flow does advect in some quite warm air so elsewhere drier and quite a warm day, including north east Scotland Overnight and through Sunday the rain and strong winds will persist in the north with the rain pushing south east along with the cold front and thus illustrating the N/S divide quite well with much cooler air behind the front Monday and Tuesday are a pretty good illustration of the opening comment with the strong high well to the WSW and a strong flow around it which is slowly veering. Thus patchy rain over N. Ireland and Scotland for a time with some regional variation of temps but overall around average And this is the position at t120 with the trough in the western Atlantic poised

YES

yeah, brings back memories of November 2010 January 2010 December 2009 to name a few. we can get a Greenland high for much if not all the upcoming winter (if not then hopefully a scandi high/retrogression)

^^ Maybe no Greeny ridge however Scandi heights directing traffic S/SE should see an interesting 240 chart- Also rogue areas of vortex lobe over the pole - only usually seen post SSW

GEFS 12z P19 at T192: Cold incoming, direct hit! Nice to see these sorts of charts on offer at the day 8 range, long way to go to land one! Edit, also P12 at T288: A bone crunching Halloween

Always good to have a bit of Autumn buzz in the forum, at this time of year it’s nice to get some frosty crisp sunshine and that certainly looks possible later this month. Who knows what winter will bring, an earlier tweet from Ian F wasn’t promising for early Winter, but at this range I’ll keep my fingers crossed that the METOs thoughts are proved wrong. I do hope we aren’t needing an SSW for a chance of a cold spell, these winters can be a drag for coldies waiting till Feb / March for some white stuff. Another roller coaster awaits!!

ECM brings in a Northerly by day 8 this morning....snow showers for parts of Scotland perhaps?

Lots of Northerlies on the GEFS. First member of the season showing a genuine Arctic or Polar airmass that would have the potential for widespread low level snow.

18z making some nice corrections to the UKMO with more vertical ridging into the pole helping the pattern sharpen up 18z V 12z

Para 12z is a corker as well, look at the intensity of the Scandinavian high.

Rock solid continuity from the ECM 12z from the overnight run.

Interesting last few days in the outputs. A lot of chopping and changing with the high pressure , as ever much of this caused by what happens towards the ne USA. The models have been spilling a bit too much energy east over the high hence we’ve seen the high flattened with the coldest air shunted further east . There is a trend tonight to take less energy over the top but the UKMO is even more bullish in that respect. The GFS and UKMO are in good agreement on the overall pattern at day 6 but if you look at the Europe and Atlantic view rather than the NH one you can clearly see the much more negative tilt to the UKMO low towards Newfoundland with the high more displaced to the nw . This more amplified solution means the cold source is further west . We await the ECM!

Good to see you back @Ali1977 . Not to worry about the tweet from IF/METO . They said about a front loaded winter the year before last and that never happened lol . 5 to 7 days ahead and they have a pretty good idea what weather to expect . From 8 to 16 days it's just about trends . After that its anyones guess . @feb1991blizzard my location gets a blob of -10 850s on p15 as well . The snow row is rising on the GEFS too . Nice .

The 7-day trend is deffinaly a cooling one for the UK some parts of eastern Europe could be well below average

Yes knocks - looks like we need to get used to that mid Atlantic feature for a few weeks to come as it waxes and wanes ......... and likely to go on a trip to Greenland for a week or so .......

Yes the 18z is on full throttle at 180 compared with the 12z 186 -8 knocking on the door in Scotland @192> there has been some cracking output in here today and for once i fealt cold this evening/night

^^^ The JMA 4 weeklies has the negative trough anomalies over Mid / High lattitudes peaking this week only to all but evaporate from week 2 through week 4 being replaced by high pressure- Expect a negative AO & probable -NAO early November - perfect timing if you ask me....

Above average temperature? Year of extended summer/no autumn? Are some on Netweather on drugs? The whole UK was cold in September. So far most of England's October has been warm but Scotland's and the North above Yorkshire have not. So, Scotland and some bits of northern England have had a colder than average Autumn so far and Yorkshire southwards have been about average. I dare say some places down south have been warm but they will probably be the minority. Yes it's warm from noon until 4pm in the lovely sun but I've had numerous chilly morning runs to school before you can feel any sun, my shower heat setting has gone up again this week thanks to colder water, and the boiler is running more than normal to heat the house with the chilly nights. Maybe some posters don't get out of bed before lunch! Topcliffe, N.Yorks. Historic September average 13.2C. This September 14/30 days were above that. Historic October average 9.8C. 13/19 above. Today will make 13/20 (but remember that's early Oct temperatures against mid-Oct historic average and late month temps are more likely to be below mid-month average. That's 27/50 days above average for autumn so far and quite likely to drop to 50% when October ends https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Topcliffe/statistics.html https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03265&ano=2018&mes=10&day=19&hora=16&min=0&ndays=50 I'd just say we've had more clear skies and bigger daily temperature swings. Night shift workers would say it's been cold!

There's quite a few direct hits on the GEFS 12z with the high further west..really hoping we get a direct cold blast from the arctic rather than a glancing blow..fingers crossed!

The snow wasn’t that heavy in the Home Counties around West London and we could do and deserve proper deep snow for a change

Just reading the NCEP discussion . They’re happy with a more negative tilt to low pressure towards New England , also they talk about a high amplitude pattern over Canada . This does give an opportunity for a cold shot into the UK. Preferably we’d like to see any low pressure deepen in that NE area and with that neg tilt this could help build a better ridge to the nw . Its a bit early for anything of note but mainland Europe can cool rapidly at this time of year so a cold shot and some early snow towards Scandi and Northern Europe could help us down the line .

I wonder why people have started bashing weather companies long range forecasts? Let's be fair here, there's been quite a few members on here who have posted their long range forecasts in the past and have gotten them either partly wrong, or catastrophically wrong. The official Netweather Winter forecasts haven't always gone to plan either.. each individual/group will see things differently and base a forecast on their own knowledge - they won't all come to the same conclusion. There's also a minority in the hardened cold camp who are likely to be the ones to be doing the ridiculing because it doesn't show what they want to see.

ECM showing a second more potent attack from the North next weekend to include the UK. Also, sort up ties in with the UKMO worded forecast that covers this extended period. Will be interesting to see whether the ECM model this evening holds this positioning or whether GFS brings back the North European trough in focus towards the British Isles. Just for good measure our snow accumulation forecasts have been upgraded to 35cm by 31 St October, still in the 40% probability rate which is still high to medium for this time span. C

If you're hunting for cold / snow the GEFS 6z postage stamps will make you smile..especially if you're further north..the signs are good for our first proper cold shot from the North from later next week and potentially into the following week!..everything crossed!

Look at the 850s temp difference on the GFS 6Z over Greenland. The southern half in +5 to +6 uppers and the north down to -30 uppers . That is a huge difference.

Interesting, as I've found accuweather's previous long range forecasts comparatively accurate in recent years (on the whole) - they were fairly close with summer 2018 too. I can see where they are coming from with this with the warming of the Pacific forecast etc, but for me and following the long term trends, heights and sea temps over the North Atlantic I would not at all be surprised if they are a bit out with this one. Famous last words of course - but there is no sign of these 'frequent wind storms' at present, on current runs anyway. We are seeing already that HP is really beasting up over europe/north atlantic with some record heights, sending warm air far further north into the arctic, reminiscent of the 'beast from the east' days. So for me, something tells me this winter isn't going to be our normal run of the mill westerlies - due to our friendly HP throwing curve balls in the jet streams way. But things can and do change... and I'm sure the jet stream will fire up with time. Its definitely an interesting one to watch!!! Never the less I'm going to enjoy the forthcoming cold, crisp days very much and Scotland could well be in for their first snowfalls too!

I Wonder if some places will record some sub zero minima next weekend on the EC 00z?

That heavy snowfall took place 28 Feb into 1 or 2 March so the general public likely viewed it as winter's last gasp in general, I think it's mostly weather forum types who associate seasons with three calendar months as we tend to do, most of the public are more attuned to the older concept of the astronomical seasons and note the passing of the two solstices and equinoxes, so for them (and perhaps some of us) the seasons really run from those dates. I think if we took the average (11th or thereabouts of March, June, September, and December) as the boundaries, it would more exactly align with the seasons as they actually happen. But then again, just because there are four seasons does not mean they have to be one quarter of a year long, I know for a fact that winter in many parts of eastern Canada is about mid November to early April, spring is over by end of May, summer lasts to mid-September and autumn is then mid-September to mid November.

And the jma just keeps on giving! and giving! and giving! just look at this NH view,bonkers!!!

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is also pointing towards colder Pm air longer term..getting the cold air in place would be good news for more widespread frosts if the high builds in again beyond day 10.

I went hunting for cold and found some on the Ecm 12z!

This is the model output looking for cold potential, if you want realism with what the models are showing you could always head over to the general model discussion thread instead?

It wasn't in my neck of the woods ed I wasn't around in the 60s or 80s so I can't really compare but my mother said that the snow we had in March was the most she'd seen since 1978-79, we had over 10 foot drifts in places. Just a shame it didn't last long though.

Cold shots for Russia. Brave call there.