Leaderboard

Surprised that it's so dead in here this morning- there's been an improvement in the op runs this morning, particularly the ECM 00z, which shows high pressure building from midweek onwards, especially for the south, and eventually nationwide. The end of the run also shows heat building again: It's not too late for another hot spell, even though autumn seems to be in the air right now. Still plenty of time for more warmth and even heat.

Today is day 1 of 2018 Winter vortex.!!! Positive 0.1M/S - An early start for the PV. Im quite excited this winter as the prospect of something very tasty coming along- Sea ice anomalies in the 2 key regions very significant in terms of worse than usual & the CFS modelling of the stratosphere showing that as we start to hit the colder months through Autumn so the strat may run much lower than usual.. Still about 6 weeks to go before we see the reality - but early excitement builds.. Great work @Mattias Todays CFS runs see a SSW mid November - similar to 1962..

Wowzers..look at these uppers on the Ecm 12z into september!?️

At midnight, in this transition to a more fluid pattern, the upper trough to the north is stretching down over the UK with a strong north westerly upper flow across the UK This portends a very cool and showery day for all of the UK now that the fronts are clear to the south. The showers will often be heavy with hail and thunder in the mix and initially far more frequent in the north west but spreading south (and inland) during the day so by evening the heavy concentration will be in the south west and south. In comparison with recent temperatures it will feel quite cool with temps below average, significantly so in places. The heavy showers will slowly clear the south and east during the evening as a ridge builds from the south west overnight and through Saturday. Thus much lighter winds and just a few showers mainly confined to the north west. Temps still below average and with the light winds a possibility of a ground frost in the usual likely spots up north. But the ridge is very transitional and out in mid Atlantic a low pressure system is getting organized and tracking east and cloud and rain from the associated fronts will effect western regions by 0600 on Sunday. The plethora of fronts ( courtesy the senior chappy at Exeter) and the band of moderate rain will then proceed across the country clearing the east coast by midnight. By Monday the low is over southern Norway and the, by now, amalgamated fronts well clear to the east, so a relatively quiet day with perhaps a few odd showers in the north west. But more changes are afoot and the next approaching upper trough stretches south, assisted by the ridging high pressure in the western Atlantic, and activates the low pressure area west of Iberia. Thus on the surface a rather complex scenario of a quiet start to Tuesday but later frontal rain will effect the north west and by late evening rain will track into the south, along with some warmer air, courtesy of the activated low moving north east across France The NH profile at T120

For God's sake grow up guys. This pathetic points scoring from both sides needs to stop, if not, we'll have to stop you ourselves.

Nobody is stupid on here don't forget,they may just have a different opinion to yours.

In for the New season...

What on earth was the point in that? (BIB). Why can't certain posters on this forum understand that every person has and is entitled to differing opinions and tastes, without having to put up with utter drivel posted like that!

Much better output on the 12s so far, with the settled spell now coming into the reliable. UKMO at T144: Might take a second surge to really deliver from here. GFS, GEM at same time: Going on with GFS, here T216 and T240, looks great and with power to add with the next high in the wings.

Lovely Autumnal feel today,really feel so much more invigorated,energy levels up,mood up. I'll be making the most of this weather!

The GEFS 12z mean is great longer term, even better than the 6z with very strong support for an increasingly anticyclonic extended outlook with warm surface conditions by day although with the lengthening nights and under clear skies, temps may dip into single digits celsius but overall once we are through this cool unsettled spell it's looking really promising for the majority on here who enjoy fine warm weather.☺

Ironic there's so few people on here tonight as this seems to be when the resurgence of summer weather is resolved. Comment on ECM in a minute but first here's the FV3 at T180: This model in my opinion has been the most consistent in building the ridge right across the UK. ECM coming on board, here T192 and T216:

Traveling abroad is always a good way to gain a different perspective on the British climate. Nobody ever has anything good to say about it, not least all the expats living in places like Spain and France. It's just lousy, plain and simple. I remember the first time I went on holiday to Spain as a kid - I didn't want to go home at all, and my sadness was further accentuated as we left the sunny, warm Costa Blanca and arrived back at a dull and cold Manchester.

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 17.7C to the 24th... +1.0 (12.8: -3.3) 17.5C to the 25th... +0.9 (12.6: -3.2) 17.4C to the 26th... +0.7 (13.3: -2.4) 17.3C to the 27th... +0.7 (14.6: -0.8) 17.2C to the 28th... +0.7 (15.9: +0.8) 17.2C to the 29th... +0.7 (15.3: 0.0) 17.0C to the 30th... +0.5 (12.6: -2.9) 16.9C to the 31st... +0.5 (12.8: -2.4) The big cool down commences, and a finish below 17C after corrections is now the most likely outcome. Not as dramatically cold an end as some previous runs suggested, but well below average nonetheless.

The op is on its own at days 9 and 10 tho . Like I said yesterday that's where they have stayed for some days now . Always at day 9 and 10 . The models are boring at minute, we needs some storms to liven things up .

The 21st of August has seen the first dustings of snow in Siberia And we're off......

Following that superb Ecm 12z operational, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also indicates a late burst of summery weather into early september, especially for southern uk..and who knows, it could set the tone for much of next month!☺

Showery day

What are you talking about? Completely lost me on that one. Sorry.

Lots of lightning and thunder in Stevenage, just north of here. Looks good on the radar too

Being new to the forum I'm very surprised just how much the majority of people on here, evidenced by the numbers of "likes" such posts get, prefer colder than average summer temperatures in what is already one of the coldest summer climates in the entire world. Thought most would find the summers too cold here but it's actually the opposite. I don't have a problem with it (unless people start laughing at others who don't like what they do) but I sure wasn't expecting it! I went to Naples in May and it was below average (18-20°C) and everybody was wearing heavy coats. Today would have been like a typical May day had the sun predominated; but light showers kept bringing temps down a good 4-5 degrees so it felt more like April much of the day. Thankfully it won't be this cold again for a while.

I decided to chase that storm that’s just hit north of Spalding! Big mistake, I thought my car was going to get smashed, hail the size of marbles came down and some magnificent CG lightning! Looks like more incoming for this area too. Heading back southbound now!

Its just the 'classification' of the vortex when the 10mb winds go positive - thats the date the PV has formed- It wont have a bearing on winter just yet as we need to see how the strength builds through October - Nov- The weak sun should impact it in terms of making it weaker- Also over the last decade - areas of low heights over the NH (50-70N) in Autumn have been notably absent- ENSO signal will be very weak & QBO whilst decending Westerly should still be weak Easterly @50HPA through October ( currently around -22 ) so again a low impact weak vortex event... So far so good in the world of the stratosphere...

Loads of posts were removed, both supporting the science and against it. I'm sure if you ask your simple polite question again, making sure it follows the section rules and is in the right thread, someone will answer it.

dreadful isnt it?... but there are gathering signs that markyo will be moaning again by the end of next week as pressures set to rise along with temps lol

Yes I have the same thoughts too . It feels as though suddenly this week autumn has arrived ,decidedly chilly today. We have almost had a continental climate since end of February and I was thinking we might be heading for an early continenatal type winter probably fairly dry so storing up more lack of water problems for next summer. Just one very heavy shower here this morning so far and all trace of it has gone now with dusty surfaces again.

Yes, there are a few left in Caithness too - I was wrong. More on the Black Isle. Looking at the state of the Arctic... are we entering an 8 month autumn now? Blustery showers all day but not as wet as earlier.

Summers in order with the best at the top 1976 3011995 2981983 2782018 277 (up to 23rd August)1955 2771911 2741984 2711959 2691975 2681949 2671989 2621947 2551933 251

I think the basics are that the climate is changing to a warmer climate but the natural cycle still remains that for one area that is above average temperatures wise another area is below average hence the cold weather event the planet will still get despite a warmer climate. The problem is those above average temperatures are getting even more above average and this is especially the case in the Arctic during winter time. Yes, WAA events have always occured in the poles in the past but the issue these days is that the PV over the pole is weaker these days so any WAA event seems to persist for longer and the cold air takes longer to recover. What I do loath to read about is how every single weather event is linked to man made climate change or how wildfires is a sign of a hotter and drier climate. That said we yet again have seen some extremes in the weather this summer like the impressive heatwave over Scandinavia during July, the Siberian heatwave hence temps in the Laptev Sea are quite high. Conversely parts of Alaska would seem to have quite a chilly summer with sea ice(if albeit rather diffuse and a small area) still hanging on near the Alaskan coastline. Back to the current ice, seems like Imo we will finish extent around where last year finished up give or take either way but because of the ice edge being further North than last year it does suguest this year there will be a bit more ice in the Arctic basin itself and the ice itself does seem to be more compact than last year and especially 2016 so some small crumbs of comfort perhaps even if the extent figures show that it' another low year.

No. Ben Nevis is next to Fort William. Could be Cairngorm Mountain or maybe Britain's second highest mountain Ben Macdui. Having been up Ben Nevis in quite a lot of lying snow in June a few years back it's true to say that snow can fall on any day of the year although it's obviously rare in high summer.

Sunny Sheffield at 18.1C +1.7C above normal. We've had some more of this strange wet stuff. Rainfall 14.2mm 21.5% of the monthly average.

18.0 to the 23rd 2.1 above the 61 to 90 average 1.3 above the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

First chilly evening up the allotment yesterday evening, sat there with several gardeners and the odd robin discussing when it's no longer feasable to work on the allotment after work, the general consensus is that time is 4 weeks today. Makes me sad! I'm usually the first one to look forward to those hazy autumn days but this year I'm, dreading the dark evenings. I don't watch TV dramas and going into town is horrible these days so I don't have anything to do on dark evenings...apart from annoy the boyfriend when he's trying to play Elite Dangerous The lengthy heatwave has meant that for those who planted pumpkins at the earliest opportunity are seeing them ripen now. I don't quite know where I'm going to store 8 pumpkins for 8 weeks..especially as I don't know where I'll be living in 8 weeks! The other thing I have noticed is the size of the acorns this year - like acorns on steroids, I'll photograph them tomorrow.

After the humid last few days, this morning we have clear blue skies and sunshine with a nice cool breeze. 11c at 6am for dog walk, now 13c. Now this is my kind of weather Patio doors and windows open with some lovely fresh air

Not of a hit and miss week, cold tonight, car was reading 7c just now. Some big showers rolled through as well. Hoping the weather holds for the weekend as it's the Strathearn Balloon festival.

At times like this when model uncertainty reigns, I'm minded of the often trotted out mantra in winter, of the models smelling the coffee. So instead of trying to interpret the 12z suite meteorologically, here's my take on what they are 'smelling': ICON - Nescafé Gold blend - quick to high to NE, short run though. GFS - Americano - what we used to call 'coffee' pre Costa, Starbucks etc - decent run. UKMO - Espresso - goes in right direction, very short though. GEM - rotting left overs of a doner kebab the next day, with brown lettuce. FV3 - filter coffee with extra cream, great run. ECM - a turpentine and Evo-stick mix - preposterous run. FIM9 - bog standard decent coffee from a Wetherspoons pub, with free refills, decent run. Notwithstanding that it seems the runs favouring the build of high pressure through the UK and then NE look similar, the ones that don't favour this look very different. I'm still going for the settled early September.

To me, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks better than the 00z at day 10 with a stronger ridge covering more of the uk..I will take any positives i can find!

I am fully aware of the contradiction and do not subscribe to it. The interesting part for me was that the cycle was documented. That doesn't happen much these days. The ice amount, extent, area of those charts I provided are not of interest to me, the cycles plotted are though. As far as Arctic ice is concerned over the last 10,000 years there has only been more ice during the LIA. Although your chart is interesting it doesn't really show anything other than the more recent ice melt. To find out if that ice melt is impressive or not we really need to look back to see what ice levels have been over previous years. It is all good and well seeing the top and fall but how far did it reach to get to the top in the first place? I'm sure you get me? Chart dating back 10,000 years. http://notrickszone.com/2017/03/02/new-paper-indicates-there-is-more-arctic-sea-ice-now-than-for-nearly-all-of-the-last-10000-years/ With the AMO expected to turn negative over coming years this is why I am extremely interested in the Arctic Ice Levels this year the last few years and the two or three decades to come. Along with Solar (which I wont get in to here) a lot of the ice melt has a strong chance to be replaced during that 2 to 4 decade period and as you can see on the above 10,000 year ice chart, current melt isn't anything to be alarmed about. Where as yours does kinda look scary lol

It's certainly looking like a good year for the Greenland surface mass balance (SMB). It will be interesting to see how this affects the mass balance of the ice sheet as a whole this year. Might it temporarily offset the long term decline? However, that discussion/speculation is more suited to the Greenland thread. This thread is about the Arctic sea ice.

Another historically great thread. My favourite time of the year is approaching!

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Aug 2018 ISSUED 20:14 UTC Thu 23 Aug 2018 ISSUED BY: null Broad upper trough will cover the British Isles on Friday, the associated cold air aloft atop warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland helping to steepen lapse rates and generate several hundred J/kg CAPE. One trough axis will clear eastern Britain early on Friday morning, leaving elements of upper ridging in its wake over southern Britain for a time during the morning. Numerous showers are likely to develop on Friday morning across central and northern parts of the British Isles, the risk extending farther south during the afternoon and evening hours as stronger forcing associated with a shortwave slides SE-wards - across Northern Ireland during the morning, into Wales/Midlands during the afternoon and S / SE England during the evening. While some isolated / sporadic lightning is possible virtually anywhere given the extensive coverage of showers and marginal instability, the risk of lightning is probably greatest in this zone from Northern Ireland through Wales / Midlands to S / SE England, given an overlap of stronger shear and better forcing allowing some cell organisation to occur. A low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight this potential, with extensions over the North Sea and English Channel where some lightning activity seems likely during the late afternoon / evening hours. In general, profiles are more unstable but with weak shear in the north, and more capped but stronger shear farther south - somewhere in the middle, with an overlap of both shear and instability, would be favoured for the best lightning potential. The strongest cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and wind gusts of 40-50mph locally. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-24

......Now that's funny

These op runs are gradually getting worse from the last two or three days, where it looked for all money we’d see a nice build of high pressure around the turn of the month. Now it’s looking a bit dicey, and we may not see much of a settled spell at all.

What a difference a day makes,spent today jumping in and out of a car,6 calls lugging heavy kit,hardly broke sweat(well nearly),no banging headache,good nights sleep helped. Near perfect weather at this time of year for working,i know many won't agree,but for actually getting out and about so much less draining than even yesterday let alone the Summer we have had. No way i could have done this in June/July. I would have been in trouble health wise. Not the perfect weather i grant otherwise at this time of year if your holidaying or with kids. But for late August in the UK,not to bad to be honest.

However this summer is perceived, it has still been absolutely crap for storms.

As a weather enthusiast I'll gladly take the heavy showers. Love me a bit of convective weather.

Lovely fresh start to the day,single figures(just),bank holiday looking good as well,happy chap this morning!

Surprised how roaky it was overnight - came in about 5pm with drizzle and hill fog then most of the night was complete fogfest right down in the dale. Wind has dropped right out and it soon broke up and cleared this morning. Bit off topic but did this video last Monday at Whitby when it was trying to come in again - you can see low cloud characteristically brushing the top of the Abbey ruin - and a few snippets of quite rough sea. A lot of these rides do a circuit right round the NE area and were at the hoppings. They'll be at Stokesley early September and Yarm a couple of week slater.

Severe weather Europe has been amazing last few days ,supercells, derechos ,giant hail and debris flows ,perfect weather porn , lol