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Yes that is right, the GSDM is essentially a diagnostic tool to both assist and check the NWP interpretation of global wind-flow (the jet-stream) as measured in both the tropics and extra tropics. As a checking mechanism, it is used in a direct practical reality - and is therefore much more than mere theory I think that separating the tropical element (MJO) and extra tropical element (GWO) as a means to try to debunk the rationale shows an inherent lack of understanding of the actual purpose of the GSDM itself. The GWO, as the extra tropical element of the GSDM takes account of the momentum transport of frictional eddies in the jet stream caused by changes in direction, convergence, speed and velocity of wind-flows, and then the subsequent propagation of these frictional eddies via mountain torques leads into rossby wave dispersion in the extra tropics - that links global >regional scale circulation anomalies. Putting all this into less presentational and simpler terms, it becomes possible from this process to match up the identified circulatory anomaly framework from the diagnostic approach (global and/or regional anomalies) with the one identified by the commonly recognised numerical modelling systems. Hence some extra insight into NWP performance and accuracy. The purpose of the GSDM is not in any way to replace numerical modelling but it is a highly important diagnostic supplement to it. Such a circulation anomaly as above, is a sum of all its parts. With such a critical link in mind, discounting the influence of upstream signals in the Pacific as only having any influence on the US and not the Atlantic /European pattern appears to pre-suppose that the jet-stream ribbon (as measured by GSDM diagnostic) gets off a train at Myrtle Beach and boards a disconnected line somewhere off the Eastern seaboard of the US Its also clear that accuracy and correlation will not be obtained alone through the use of MJO composites, because this is just one element of the GSDM and leaves out extra tropical responses as described above. Rossby wave dispersion from tropical convective activity propagates to the extra tropics according to its wavelength - (i.e how far east and at what amplitude it propagates within its usual 30 to 45 day periodicity cycle) and as "a mini-cycle" in itself that is where the ENSO link is made as determined to where the base standing wave signal exists which the low frequency MJO signal attaches itself to. The relevance to this particular summer is the slow transition that has been underway from La Nina base state towards, of late, a very weak fledgling El Nino state and how the ocean>atmosphere link would evolve according to this. As you correctly say @Singularity much of the focus has been around how fast the transition between Nina towards Nino would occur, but again to re-state, the talk here is not about the base state per say - but about how would the atmospheric relationship to the ocean base state play out in terms of the tropical/extra tropical interactions as described above to link global and regional circulation anomalies. And we think of the Atlantic and European regional circulation anomaly as being as much linked as the Pacific/US regional circulation anomaly is to the global circulation as a whole 'Teleconnections' has become a very overused and over applied word. The diagnostic process of the non numerical model is much more than mere indices teleconnection play-matching. The GWO composites, as a mere end product of that diagnostic process, are made up of the tropical and extra tropical element aggregate of global wind-flow according to the ocean/atmosphere relationship relative to the base state. Whilst its true that these composites can be used more reliably towards a pattern guide than any MJO composite - for the reasons clearly given the emphasis remains firmly on diagnosis rather than pattern match and theory. Certainly for someone like me who isn't at all interested in being any competitive forecaster, but simply looking at what might supplement/influence the direction of NWP and making suggestions according to this. Interpretation is required according to any given number of variables that might be present at a given time - and as such any rolling assessment of a given pattern or change in pattern is taken on its own merits rather than relying on any analogue. Less theory and more reality. I think that any emphasis on this type of model approach being theory rather than having any direct practical approach can be behind the attempts for a few, usually the same few, thinking (wrongly) it is easy to discredit. But, hopefully that is the very last time, any of that needs to be repeated... ….To the present day modelling: The last post on Friday GSDM raw data identified the GWO in Phase 4. Phase 4 of the GWO identifies westerly wind bursts being added to the global wind-flow circulation which start increasing momentum flow across the Pacific and a split-flow occurring downstream of this energy which separates a downstream trough and subsequent ridge. The amount of amplification of this ridge is determined by the degree of split of the flow coming from upstream that determines sharpness of the pattern. In this type of scenario, according to the current seasonal wavelength, increased upstream amplification (lower AAM) will produce greater amounts of directed polar jet flow downstream and provide initiative to the trough and produce a flatter ridge response further downstream from that. The converse holds true. Subsequent update of that raw GWO data (two days + consolidated) has identified the initial calculation as too progressive in upstream momentum (and hence too much downstream split-flow amplification) and the GWO has remained at a lower amplitude and more indiscernible signal Phase 0 than initial raw data suggested. We can only work with the date we are supplied with - that is the same for any computer supplied data. Working ahead from this changed starting data to assess ahead, this will account for the apparent continuing stubbornness of NWP to not amplify the ridging more than seemed logical from the former data The present GWO amplitude is also reflective of the fact that the tropical cycle in late July was the first one to engage the newly developing Nino footprint in the Pacific and it served mostly to wipe out the greater excesses of easterly wind inertia accrued through two years of La Nina lag which has been taking its time to be eradicated completely from the global atmospheric circulation.This is accordingly set against total global atmospheric angular momentum levels which are reflective of the GWO orbit position and has been hovering either side of parity. The GWO vs GLAAM position at any time is an excellent barometer to gauge perspective of how much the tropical cycle may serve to change and evolve the global vs regional anomaly patterns (linked to above discussion) Relative angular momentum tendency has recently stayed buoyed up through the persistence of tropical activity in the Pacific (non low frequency signal). This has been keeping angular momentum in a holding position till the next low frequency tropical cycle arrives as catalyst to boost the extra tropical circulation via another surge of poleward momentum transport and boost amplification of the pattern. Further poleward momentum being a signal for another rise in both relative and total angular momentum and reflecting greater advance of the atmosphere in embracing the growing El Nino signal in the Pacific. A fly in the ointment over the coming 10 days is the passage of a convectively coupled Kelvin Wave traversing the tropical Atlantic (dampening the Pacific storm signal temporarily and providing a window for Atlantic developments) at the same time as the low frequency MJO signal is ending latest cycle in readiness for the next. This will possibly see a short phase of greater trade winds keeping the lid on angular momentum briefly(and facilitating Atlantic tropical storm development before suppression occurs once more). This also means the broad-scale downstream pattern is unlikely to amplify sufficiently in this time to shift the Jetstream further north to encompass the greater part of the UK. It seems this is also combatting a greater temperature gradient relative to late summer polar vs summertime tropical cell Taking all into consideration, not too bad an outlook overall at all further south bar a few days, but something of a frustrating spell for those further north with support for the flatter changeable pattern and the north/south split into the last third of August, It looks to me as if the ensemble data continues oscillating around the position of the jet relative to the restricted amplification equation (for the time being) within a narrow upside/downside pendulum. The 12z giveth and the 0z taketh away etc. . But the lack of faith in NWP picking up signals coherently with poor guidance and continuity in extended data (and professional extended forecasts flip-flopping accordingly), the lack of pay cheque involved in making any suggestions ahead of time (whatever they they may be), and just the plain old devils advocate in me still clearly sees the potential magnitude of the next tropical signal cycle into the Pacific (echoing the synoptic passage of late July) and setting up an end of season plume scenario as discussed in the last post

Blown away as always by Tamara's ability to put so much detail together coherently in a single post . That CCKW has been causing headaches but (due to a Tamara post I read last winter I think) I wasn't expecting that to be strong enough to cause much trouble for getting at least a bit more amplification to the flow next week, indeed it seems like the models have been overplaying it - but by the wording of this latest post, I'm inclined to be more cautious now as opposed to expecting the Nino standing wave to essentially 'drown it out'. With a small tropical disturbance having been added to the weekend mix (as if we didn't have enough complications already!), minuscule adjustments to how flat or not the jet stream is will make a big difference to what we experience Sun-Mon. For the south that's mostly how wet or dry it is, while further north it also separates warm from cool. Compare the 06z GFS with the 00z GFS or ECM and you can really see what I mean. Then for the rest of next week, it comes down to CCKW v. Nino standing wave and how fast the next MJO cycle gets going. Ensemble spreads suggest that last player could get going as soon as next Monday, but that has to be seen as an optimistic outlook if it's used. Regardless of next week's timings, though, the prospects for an unusually warm/hot final act to the month are indeed in evidence. 10 days from now - the most delayed scenario in terms of the positive AAM surge - puts us with a week left for August to redeem itself in the eyes of heat lovers. It's been a difficult month, and lately it's been down for most of us, but odds are it's not out for the count.

This morning's runs have edged the jet slightly south and run low pressures slightly faster through the pattern. It may be that these runs are too progressive when compared to yesterday's but, as I think I commented a week ago, this does seem to be "thing" with the models at this time of year - when they try to promote ridging from a flat position, it tends to default back to a flatter pattern by about D5. However, I'm thinking the lift in the pattern will remain sufficient to give southern areas as much as four decent days between Friday and Monday, with temperatures again exceeding 80F on some days. Added to a decent Tuesday and Wednesday, it all adds up to a fairly good week in these parts. Further north, the jet really has taken its aim and the next inclement burst will never be far away. Daring to look further ahead, more and more ensemble runs push heights even further south between D10-D15, so not really inspiring confidence from the middle of next week onwards, but likewise there are options for a continuation of something similar to this coming week, so will need to wait a bit to call the bank holiday period.

Your use of the NAO puzzles me; troughs come and go in the vicinity of Iceland with weak ridging in between and this causes the NAO to oscillate within the phase it’s in. That can happen just as much with a jet stream path through the UK from the northwest as with a path running SW-NE and passing NW of the UK. Generally, as Tamara’s reflective posts have shown over the past few months, the drifts into less solidly settled conditions and then recoveries from them have fit well to the cycles of AAM observed, in terms of timing. The fact that the later summer would start to run into trouble without a shift to a Nino standing wave in the atmosphere was well advertised based on GSDM theory back in the early summer. The standing wave taking as long to develop as it has, we’ve seen that trouble arrive, and are now looking to the standing wave to set in motion MJO behaviour that will put that trouble to bed for at least a time. Increasingly there are signs in the modelling of this taking place within the next 7-10 days. I could go on... but it’s late on a Sunday and in any case I expect some will continue to question the theory no matter what I say. That, though, is a key aspect of developing sciences. There’s no one ultimate solution, just a variety of approaches that each have their strengths and weaknesses .

WEDGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND! BACK UP, BACK UP!

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-13 05:48:04 Valid: 13/08/2018 00z to 14/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MONDAY 13TH AUG 2018 Synopsis Upper trough towards the eastern side of the UK this morning will drift away eastwards into the Low Countries this afternoon, weak ridge building across the west, shallow surface low situated over south North Sea at noon, with associated wrap around occlusion close to east coast of England, the low deepening a little as it moves east across Denmark by midnight. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms likely to develop across eastern England this afternoon. ... E ENGLAND ... Models indicate surface breeze convergence / moisture pooling not far inland of east coast of England this afternoon, steeper lapse rates towards the east closer to colder air aloft of exiting upper trough and scope for some surface heating will generate sufficient instability combined with lift of convergence to support heavy showers and increasingly into the afternoon a few thunderstorms too. Steering flow towards eastern UK will be fairly slack, so main threat will be slow-moving showers/storms bringing a risk of localised flooding. Issued by: Nick Finnis

There was a beautiful sky in the wake of that storm. Let’s just hope that it’s broken the storm drought of 2018.

Rapid developement's to my east. this ones heading for Lincoln.

Had a night of gentle rain and its still falling. Currently 14c Watched the swallows this morning circling the trees outside the window about six inches off the ground feeding on insects out of the rain and then up to six at a time landed on the dried out brown grasss and started feeding on insects on the ground. Don"t see that very often.

Outlook the same as yesterday which is unsettled that doesn't, within the fluid pattern,rule out spells of warmer and more humid weather encroaching the south. Currently the 500mnb analysis has a trough over the UK with the high pressure to the south west A fair bit of cloud around this morning, particularly over Scotland and N. Ireland and still lingering along the north eastern coast of England with some patchy rain. The cloud and patchy rain will persist today over Scotland but the cold front should move away from the east coast leaving much of N. Ireland, Wales and England in a showery regime with sunny spells, probably more of the latter in the south west, but during the afternoon and evening thundery outbreaks will occur in the north east/east of England within the convergence zone. Overnight the showers will die away and the cloud and rain eventually leaving eastern Scotland as a ridge attempts to push in from the south west. So generally a much drier and brighter start to the day on Tuesday with some of warmer air as mentioned earlier creeping into the south but a new frontal system approaching from the west quite quickly brings cloud and patchy rain into north western parts of the UK. A quick overview on Weds does illustrate quite well the fluidity of the pattern with the phasing of the cooler air (trough) and warmer air (HP) and the quite strong jet along the thermal gradient . On the surface the NW/SE split continues with fronts bringing cloud, rain and strengthening winds into the former with the latter remaining dry and quite warm. The cold front will continue to track south east, along with a band of rain, over the country overnight Weds and through Thursday introducing much cooler air to all and a showery regime in it's wake. Friday will start dry but the next quite rapidly developing Atlantic low is tracking north east and is 982mb south east of Iceland by midday and the associated fronts have already brought cloud and rain, along with strengthening winds, into north western parts. And the NH profile at T120

Clouds over Castle Howard

The 'expert' has spoken: torrential rain and almost as dark as night! PS: And T&L!

Saw some rotation on this cell which just passed to my SE with one rumble of thunder i was waiting for it to drop a funnel but it didn't. a nice Cb developing to my NE now but i don't think anything will happen this far west,all the action seems to be in the NE/E/SE of here.

These skies look impressive Edit: Winds suddenly picked up

I have just experienced some of the heaviest rainfall I have ever seen.... biblical! The skies looked like this just beforehand. We also had lightning and thunder overhead.

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg) 18.0C to the 13th... +1.2 (18.3: +2.1) 18.0C to the 14th... +1.2 (17.5: +0.8) 18.1C to the 15th... +1.2 (19.2: +2.4) 18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (16.5: +0.0) 17.8C to the 17th... +1.0 (15.2: -1.3) 17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (18.8: +2.2) 18.0C to the 19th... +1.2 (19.8: +2.9) 18.1C to the 20th... +1.2 (20.5: +3.8) 18.0C to the 21st... +1.3 (16.4: +0.0) 17.9C to the 22nd... +1.1 (15.2: -1.3) The CET looks like remaining in an around 18C, which means remaining slightly above average for the next week to 10 days.

Cool and wet. Lots of surface water about after persistent rain for 24 hours. Yesterday’s max of 14.9C was the lowest since the 14.5C recorded on the 20th June.

The GEFS 00z mean indicates the azores high ridging in later this week, especially during the weekend into next week, ergo, becoming warmer and more settled across southern uk but probably staying more changeable and cooler across northern uk. Thereafer, the usual ebb and flow between the azores high v lower heights to the NW as they battle to gain the upper hand but the general rule of thumb is the further south you are, the better the weather would be although some cooler changeable interludes occur even in the south from time to time. As for this week, the s / se have some warm fine weather towards midweek with temps into the mid 20's celsius, perhaps as high as 27c for parts of east anglia and the southeast and today there could be some potent storms across eastern england..most of the uk is mixed this week but as I said at the beginning, there are signs of a much better spell, at least across southern uk towards the end of this week into next week.☺

as i see them, they are pretty consistent with showing a pretty strong westerly upper flow , perhaps backing a little south of west. but the pressure appears to be on the +ive side of neutral . so whilst its set to remain unsettled and mobile with no dominant trough nor ridge (lasting long) , it shouldnt be too bad for the south with as ever the north getting the coolest/windiest/wettest conditions . pretty much normal, average, conditions then, sunnier warmer spells mixed with cloudier/cooler/wetter ones, but with the better conditions becoming more widespread then the poorer ones. as they are pretty consistent, i do trust them... however, history shows the these expected lengthy spells of a flat jet/upper flow usually dont last long. so it wouldnt surprise me if these charts re-aligned themselves and a more pronounced ridge/trough pattern emerges...

It came a month ago here 16 c drizzle while 200 miles away it's 34 c , glad I'm leaving the UK in the next few years

Finished cutting last of spring barley today after a small shower late last night. A fresh east wind with a few bright intervals in the morning dried up the grain again and we finished at 3.00pm just 20 minutes before the light rain came on. Finished on the 11th of August in 2003 but would need to look up diaries for the date in 1976. In an average year harvest finish would be about the 10th of September so we are a month ahead of average.Note green of barley stubble undersown with grass although it is shrivelled and only about one inch high. Ground is stiil very dry and dust still rises from combine wheels.Currently light rain and 15c

Your emogis are bigger than your melons!

Yes,certainly autumnal feel this evening even here in the south.I ve always had the feeling we would get an early autumn this year.

Not sure if you can see but are these towers in the distance?

Thunder!

Hope we don't end up brewing for someone else which is what tends to happen lol, but latest to my North

So not "barely above 17C by Wednesday" then? Calls of this August being poor are premature. There's only been 11 Augusts above 17.6C in the entire CET series and we're looking to be at around 18C with less than 10 days of it left.

any signs of summer returning .. or can I expect a Wenger return more likely

The GFS 6z continues from other runs this morning what must be quite a dispiriting outlook for northern members looking for a return to sunshine and warmth. Any build of high pressure further north that has been showing into the weekend has been quashed this morning with a new little low pressure that is due to skirt across northern parts Sunday into Monday. The 6z shows high pressure building further north by Tuesday and later into next week where it becomes dominant. However, that is over a week away and has been pushed back from this weekend. Could all change again on the 12z's, so let's hope this morning's runs have placed that low on Sunday/Monday too far south and it trends north. For southern areas, barring Thursday, the picture is one of general improvement from the last 4/5 days of unsettled weather. Today is showery, but from tomorrow things pick up with dry, warm and quite sunny weather. Temperatures should hit the mid 20's. We introduce some slightly cooler air again on Thursday with some rain for most, then pressure builds to the south once again on Friday and into the weekend with temperatures slowly getting back into the mid-20's. Very uncertain still into next week, some runs continue the N/S theme, others such as the GFS 6z wants to build high pressure more widely.

Yes, this is where I am I think. I do believe there's a reasonable chance we are entering a period of low solar activity which is not unusual on the century scale (e.g. the Wolf, Spörer, Maunder minimums), but it won't have a significant effect on the global temperature. However, there is a enough reputable science to suggest a link between, for example, increased Northern blocking during periods of low activity to warrant further attention. Here's an article in Nature from this year on the subject: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0

I don't know what it's like. I just crawled out of bed and I still canny see. Another 9 pots of tea will sort it!

Yes, it's a dreich morning. Low low cloud driving up behind Pencuik - smirry rain. Doesn't smell like autumn though, just yet.

Well yet another thunderstorm warning today...and once again absolutely nothing, not even a drop of drizzle let alone anything decent...still no storm since sept 2016...its literally incredible how we always miss them, incredible.

Try the northwest your climate is good ,went to a wedding at Cambridge uni in deceber 2 years ago and we had temps of 18c and sunny .

The models are so resistant to shutting down the westerlies - but they're weaker when comparing the 12z ECM with the preceding 00z ECM, and my eye is drawn to all that heat building to the south. If the models are as wrong as I suspect they might be to replace the trough to our west with a ridge early next week... need I say more? Almost like clockwork, this; observed convective signal defying model projections and remaining really quite active instead of starting to decay, longer-term projections for the next MJO cycle initiation point shifting more into phase 5 instead of 4. Note how the bias-adjusted version on the right is more toward the western Pacific phases (5/6) than the unadjusted version. The model charts we mostly look at use the unadjusted, likely even more wrong projections. I've actually been impressed by the persistence of the convective signal at such high amplitude lately. It seems that the atmospheric Nino base state is more developed than I had thought across the C Pacific; it's strongly attracted the climatological enhanced convection to that region while we wait for the next actual MJO cycle to get going again. The historical composites for MJO phase 7 indicate Atlantic troughs digging down west of Europe, so if the convection continues to remain active in that phase instead of decline, that has the potential to help the anticipated pattern shift get going sooner rather than later. Something to keep an eye on, as persistent enhanced convection in a given MJO phase region can have similar impacts to the actual MJO moving through, albeit not usually as pronounced.

The El Niño base state is developming more in the atmosphere rather than ocean, though the ocean should follow suit at least a little (mainly C PAC) in the next week or so. This lead by the atmosphere is, I believe, one of the reasons why the models are struggling so much to show any consistent changes. It also lends much uncertainty to the timing of events as far as practitioners of the teleconnection theory are concerned. Hence a weekend timing to the transition stage is at about 70% confidence in my mind, which is far from a secure outlook. Hopefully August isn’t going to be as much of a pain as possible and take until early-mid next week to start a sustained pattern shift, but it’s on the table, sadly enough (though things could be worse - under a Nina regime we’d have little prospect of improvements this month and even a chance it turned more ‘vigorously’ unsettled!).

As you mention yourself, this is the moans thread - if you don't want to see people moaning about the weather then just don't click on it. Simple, no? I think all heat lovers are perfectly satisfied with the summer we've had but that doesn't mean we are not entitled to have a whinge about days like today. If it was the opposite and today was a hot sunny day after a rainy/cloudy summer then the heat haters would be doing the same thing. What exactly do you expect? And if anything, this summer has just made heat lovers even more sensitive to cloudy/damp days like today, because it reminds us of how crap our climate usually is and how much better the weather is in other countries. I believe stainesbloke is moving to Czechia soon anyway so he'll finally be rid of our wretched maritime climate. Hopefully I can leave eventually too.

Sunny Sheffield at 18.5C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall 4.8mm 7.3% of the months rainfall

Pretty fair I would suspect, apart from Thursday which looks damp. Temps around low-mid 20's possibility still exists for showers today.

Regarding possible thundery activity in the east later some forecast convective cloud depths and a couple of soundings that would tend to support this.

Don’t blame you at all . This climate does my brains in too.

GFS 18z looking good as early as T144:

Yeah I get that, we have the best weather here in the South East. It’s still foul though. May sound like I’m constantly moaning but there’s nothing positive or nice about this weather at all. Constantly raining, cloudy and windy. Even the short times it is sunny, there’s almost no warmth. I don’t expect constant blue skies and 28c, would just be nice to have something remotely settled. It feels like we’ve been instantly transported into Autumn this week.

This. The Summer has fallen off a cliff. Don’t know why we have to go from one extreme to the other. We went 60 days without rain here and now it’s almost constant. Very annoying and foul indeed.

I think on the whole a return to summer is looking more and more likely especially in the south. Tuesday /Wednesday already promise to be good days, bit of a blip Thursday /Friday but thereafter it looks like an excellent weekend and then probably Monday /Tuesday as well. A further interruption possible, but actually not inevitable - in the north it will be hard to stay settled for long, but I think an equal chance of it staying good in the south all week (20-24 Aug).

Keeping quiet at the moment in here, summer doldrum period.. Models in the reliable maintain a broadly westerly flow, always wettest and coolest the further north west you travel, with the SE continuing to see some decent conditions at times, with sunny warm periods. As we enter next weekend, the north west / south east split looks to continue, as we see pressure nose NE behind the frontal feature set to move through the UK on Friday. Question is whether this builds sufficiently north to advect the jet further to the north, or whether it struggles to do so, and we see a flatter option take hold, meaning more rain and cooler weather for the north, and less heat in the south. I'm reading a few posts that keep mentioning the El Nino base state - however, I don't believe we are in an El Nino yet, more a transitional phase, indeed conditions look ENSO neutral at the moment, and perhaps it is this factor which might scupper some of the forecasting going for more pronounced ridge development to the end the month with the trough held far to the west. It remains to be seen. It would be a bonus to record a dry warm sunny August bank holiday - especially given how wonderful the two May Bank Holidays were. However, you look at things, we are far from the base state we were in from late April through until late July, and we are now entering the time of year when hurricane activity can throw spanners in the work (even though 2018 is I believe predicted to be a quiet year hurricane season wise).

Not a moan, and fine for any who want to moan, this is to say how good this summer has been, so far. Today at 20.7 C, almost no sun is the 2nd coldest day since 17 June, too much heat at times for me, along with the humidity, but that is just my personal feeling, others have enjoyed it. I am not sure how long it is since a summer as dry and warm/hot as this has been, certainly not in my records going back to 1997. I suspect 1976, not in this area but working in Manchester is probably the last time I experienced such prolonged dry weather and heat with it.

The SLP plot is even worse

Latest Glosea5 (august) shows a positive NAO. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Not far off 60%.