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Just seen this funnel cloud heading south on the A591 near a place called Sizergh just south-east of the Lake District National Park! We virtually drove under the funnel but there was no wind. Never seen anything like it!

Morning all - the ECM raw data this morning has maxes at 27 on Tuesday, 28 on Wednesday, and then between 25 and 27 between Saturday and next Monday. We've found during the summer we can add 2C to these raw values in optimum conditions, so pushing the high 20s or even 30C mark at the extreme. If we get 4 more days in excess of 30C this summer, that will be 30 times - a clear record. I'm feeling quite optimistic about a good weekend (except maybe far north) coming up as all clusters last night had the 582dam line at 500mb into the south or along the south coast- a good indicator of continental style summery weather.

Pressure build across the UK during next weekend - check. Retention of a trough west of Europe with the ridge orientating to bring a continental rather than westerly flow - still in the works! The latest model output appears to be heading more Nino-like during the weekend in response to the ongoing Pacific tropical activity, but then more Nina-like as they continue to show it decaying away. If they're right, a more changeable regime most likely continues into the following week, just with more ridging than in the week ahead. BUT if recent trends to keep the MJO more active continue instead, then we most likely see high pressure sticking around with warmth advancing across from the near continent. Have a great Sunday everyone (whatever the weather...).

Your use of the NAO puzzles me; troughs come and go in the vicinity of Iceland with weak ridging in between and this causes the NAO to oscillate within the phase it’s in. That can happen just as much with a jet stream path through the UK from the northwest as with a path running SW-NE and passing NW of the UK. Generally, as Tamara’s reflective posts have shown over the past few months, the drifts into less solidly settled conditions and then recoveries from them have fit well to the cycles of AAM observed, in terms of timing. The fact that the later summer would start to run into trouble without a shift to a Nino standing wave in the atmosphere was well advertised based on GSDM theory back in the early summer. The standing wave taking as long to develop as it has, we’ve seen that trouble arrive, and are now looking to the standing wave to set in motion MJO behaviour that will put that trouble to bed for at least a time. Increasingly there are signs in the modelling of this taking place within the next 7-10 days. I could go on... but it’s late on a Sunday and in any case I expect some will continue to question the theory no matter what I say. That, though, is a key aspect of developing sciences. There’s no one ultimate solution, just a variety of approaches that each have their strengths and weaknesses .

There was a beautiful sky in the wake of that storm. Let’s just hope that it’s broken the storm drought of 2018.

I think on the whole a return to summer is looking more and more likely especially in the south. Tuesday /Wednesday already promise to be good days, bit of a blip Thursday /Friday but thereafter it looks like an excellent weekend and then probably Monday /Tuesday as well. A further interruption possible, but actually not inevitable - in the north it will be hard to stay settled for long, but I think an equal chance of it staying good in the south all week (20-24 Aug).

Morning runs continue the trend of the last few days for the week ahead. Changeable weather - warmest and driest in the south/SE, wettest and coolest in the N/NW. some rain for all on Monday and Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and warm in the SE/E Anglia with temperatures possibly up to 26/27c in some spots. More unsettled for all on Thursday with a cold front sweeping down the country. Then breezy on Friday with more rain in the north. Things settling down again on the weekend, particularly in the south, but pressure starting to build further north too.

Outlook: Remaining unsettled but with the airstream periodically sourced from the south west, some warmer weather infiltrates the south. The current NH profile. Needless to say it has been a wet and breezy night in many areas thanks to a filling low over Ireland and the associated fronts traversing the country. And if you want an example of what a sounding profile looks like in such a scenario look no further than the Camborne 00 sounding. Te main band of rain from the warm front is currently straddling the north and the the cold front passed through here quite recently The main rain today over England, with some heavy outbursts, will come from the latter as it moves east with the added complication of a wave forming on it. As the front passels it will clear in the west but in the very moist atmosphere a little heating could well set off some quite intense thundery showers. The thundery showers will continue through the evening but dissipating overnight and through Monday portending quite a pleasant day in the west, although showers will continue to effect N. Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere the frontal rain will be quite slow to clear the east and it's not until the early afternoon that the shallow low is in the North Sea. The next couple of days are a reasonable example of the opening comment of the post And on Tuesday with the ridge influencing the south some dry and warm weather here as frontal systems, with cloud and patchy rain , running around the northern flank and effecting N. Ireland and Scotland. It's not a dissimilar scenario on Wednesday But the next major upper low is arriving on the scene exerting pressure on the ridge and the surface fronts associated with this are bringing cloud and rain, along with a freshening wind to the north western half of the country. The aforementioned fronts will track south east on Thursday bringing patchy rain and cooler conditions to all. And so to the NH profile at T120

A better day today, dry and a maximum temperature of 18C and light winds. Not much in the way of sunshine though with a lot of low cloud, especially from late afternoon. Still some green to be seen in the cereal crops around us so no harvesting of that yet - focus seems to be on getting the oilseed rape in.

The models are so resistant to shutting down the westerlies - but they're weaker when comparing the 12z ECM with the preceding 00z ECM, and my eye is drawn to all that heat building to the south. If the models are as wrong as I suspect they might be to replace the trough to our west with a ridge early next week... need I say more? Almost like clockwork, this; observed convective signal defying model projections and remaining really quite active instead of starting to decay, longer-term projections for the next MJO cycle initiation point shifting more into phase 5 instead of 4. Note how the bias-adjusted version on the right is more toward the western Pacific phases (5/6) than the unadjusted version. The model charts we mostly look at use the unadjusted, likely even more wrong projections. I've actually been impressed by the persistence of the convective signal at such high amplitude lately. It seems that the atmospheric Nino base state is more developed than I had thought across the C Pacific; it's strongly attracted the climatological enhanced convection to that region while we wait for the next actual MJO cycle to get going again. The historical composites for MJO phase 7 indicate Atlantic troughs digging down west of Europe, so if the convection continues to remain active in that phase instead of decline, that has the potential to help the anticipated pattern shift get going sooner rather than later. Something to keep an eye on, as persistent enhanced convection in a given MJO phase region can have similar impacts to the actual MJO moving through, albeit not usually as pronounced.

Heavy rain now started, just heard a distant boom of thunder. Starting to electrify.

some folk are never satisfied, I know its the moans thread but really, yes grotty day here as well but more days of heat and sun than for many years.

Very good signs from the Ecm 00z ensemble mean from later in the week ahead onwards as the azores high ridges in strongly across most of the uk, ergo, becoming more settled and warmer, especially across the southern half of the uk.☺

Important not to get weather and climate mixed up. I'd not consider an isolated one or two exceptional months to mean much, but here for example, my location has seen top 5% mean temperature months for each of April, May and June, followed by a record-hot July. That's beyond what can be reasonably explained by natural variability. Cold months, even record cold ones, will remain possible so long as snow falls across northern Asia and Scandinavia Nov-Mar, which thanks to the polar night, should always be the case. In fact, snowfall is likely to become deeper in those regions as a result of increased moisture availability from the warmer oceans. This could even lead to 3+ consecutive exceptionally cold winter/spring months one year soon... the warming global climate necessarily mean that the UK will share in that trend all year round.

Interesting sky

The El Niño base state is developming more in the atmosphere rather than ocean, though the ocean should follow suit at least a little (mainly C PAC) in the next week or so. This lead by the atmosphere is, I believe, one of the reasons why the models are struggling so much to show any consistent changes. It also lends much uncertainty to the timing of events as far as practitioners of the teleconnection theory are concerned. Hence a weekend timing to the transition stage is at about 70% confidence in my mind, which is far from a secure outlook. Hopefully August isn’t going to be as much of a pain as possible and take until early-mid next week to start a sustained pattern shift, but it’s on the table, sadly enough (though things could be worse - under a Nina regime we’d have little prospect of improvements this month and even a chance it turned more ‘vigorously’ unsettled!).

Friday easily best day of this horrid Summer, cool fresh air and some exciting heavy thundery hail showers in the afternoon followed by a lovely cool night. Now back to horrible humid nothingness all week, yuck.

As you mention yourself, this is the moans thread - if you don't want to see people moaning about the weather then just don't click on it. Simple, no? I think all heat lovers are perfectly satisfied with the summer we've had but that doesn't mean we are not entitled to have a whinge about days like today. If it was the opposite and today was a hot sunny day after a rainy/cloudy summer then the heat haters would be doing the same thing. What exactly do you expect? And if anything, this summer has just made heat lovers even more sensitive to cloudy/damp days like today, because it reminds us of how crap our climate usually is and how much better the weather is in other countries. I believe stainesbloke is moving to Czechia soon anyway so he'll finally be rid of our wretched maritime climate. Hopefully I can leave eventually too.

We holiday in Marmaris every year, love it there. We’re going next month and will be our 14th time since 2008. Back to the weather, overcast and slightly muggy here in my part of Surrey. Can’t wait for the sunshine to come back.

Oh that’s cool, nice one mate! Love the Lakes, just been hiking for a couple of days. Everyone is so friendly too. Back to the boring and overpriced Home Counties now!

Dreich: cloudy, dull and damp with a cool easterly breeze. Been so used to nice weekend weather this comes as a bit of a shock!

Very pleasant afternoon at the Peeblesshire show. Bits of blue sky but mainly cloudy - warm. Bought a mug lol..

Too early to say given that FI can change but with the end of the month coming into view it would appear that here at least we will probably run down the clock on August without breaching 25C again.

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 13 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 14 Aug 2018 ISSUED 19:55 UTC Sun 12 Aug 2018 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper trough axis over eastern England first thing Monday morning will migrate eastwards to the Baltic Sea by Tuesday morning. Cold air aloft atop SSTs and diurnal heating will generate several hundred J/kg CAPE, with subtle forcing aloft and low-level convergence playing a key role in generating scattered showers, some capable of sporadic lightning. These will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, especially over SE England and eastern English Channel - but by the afternoon the main focus will be eastern England. Slight warm nose at 700mb may cause some showers to struggle to maintain sufficient convective depth for lightning. The strongest cells may produce small hail (pea-sized) and wind gusts up to 40mph. Slow storm-motion and elements of shower training may result in some local surface water issues. One or two funnel clouds may also be possible, enhanced by low-level convergence. Most showers will decay during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides and heights rise aloft. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-13

ECM last few frames show the slight margins that affects the UK weather over the next week to 10 days time. Here T192, T216, T240: but all the while promising for high pressure to reassert itself, more runs needed, but signs of a last hurrah for summer are possible, watch this space! And I really like the GFS parallel /FV3 12z at T192, I wouldn't be surprised if this was what actually happened !

The GEFS 12z mean indicates plenty of azores high / ridge influence from next weekend, at least for england and wales so a changeable week coming up but then becoming predominantly fine and warm..not seeing anything hot but I think low to mid 20's celsius and plenty of late summer sunshine would be good enough for most!☺

Keeping quiet at the moment in here, summer doldrum period.. Models in the reliable maintain a broadly westerly flow, always wettest and coolest the further north west you travel, with the SE continuing to see some decent conditions at times, with sunny warm periods. As we enter next weekend, the north west / south east split looks to continue, as we see pressure nose NE behind the frontal feature set to move through the UK on Friday. Question is whether this builds sufficiently north to advect the jet further to the north, or whether it struggles to do so, and we see a flatter option take hold, meaning more rain and cooler weather for the north, and less heat in the south. I'm reading a few posts that keep mentioning the El Nino base state - however, I don't believe we are in an El Nino yet, more a transitional phase, indeed conditions look ENSO neutral at the moment, and perhaps it is this factor which might scupper some of the forecasting going for more pronounced ridge development to the end the month with the trough held far to the west. It remains to be seen. It would be a bonus to record a dry warm sunny August bank holiday - especially given how wonderful the two May Bank Holidays were. However, you look at things, we are far from the base state we were in from late April through until late July, and we are now entering the time of year when hurricane activity can throw spanners in the work (even though 2018 is I believe predicted to be a quiet year hurricane season wise).

It is the moans thread you don’t have to justify your posting in here !!

Quiet here today, ICON looking good for high pressure to reassert itself, T144 and T180: Good 12 s to come, think I said something similar yesterday, it was a bit mixed then, how so today?

Thunder heard

Crap day here with no sun, loads of drizzle, wind and cloud. 18C currently, I mean, really. Waste of a summer weekend. Just over the Channel, sunny and 30C. Grrrrr

Turning into a poor day, temp dropped 3 degrees since midday garden is re greening rapidly - rain splashing onto the pool makes a lovely sound and the coolness of the air means a hint of steam can be seen coming off the top - pool temp is down to 24c - also looks ever so slightly green so will have to up the Chems slightly , I try to use the smallest amount poss that will keep it clear. Unlike the neighbours who have let theirs re wild to an emerald colour and are single handedly responsible for the mosquito explosion in this part of the world !!

The second half of June 1986 was pretty decent, believe it or not, it was the warmest second half of June for CET since 1976.

This will be my 3rd time of going back but second this year as was there 4 weeks ago ... it is fantastic.. we go to marmaris but this time we are going with 8 of us ( mum , kids and granddaughter) so let’s see if I still like it after this holiday

Ahh bless you thanks ... but I’m old he’s 23 now !! I’m back off to turkey soon so not over bothered but this weather is just yuk

you must have a very long one

To be honest yesterday was the perfect summers day for most areas,nothing to moan about at all regardless of preference. Today,different kettle of fish,damp,humid,not really nice at all. Next week looking fine,good for most activities. Can't complain at all

Arome showing some tasty looking showers breaking out this afternoon too in a similar corridor up through North Wales and NW England. Encouraging that clearance is already taking place. Still overcast here, but shouldn't be long for the clearance here based on your report. Could be an interesting afternoon.

Yesterday was a superb day. Warm and sunny most of the day, clouding in late afternoon. A nice breeze as well. Much more comfortable for doing outdoor activies compared to a few weeks back, whilst still being warm enough to sit around outside. Not looking as nice out today, but some convective interest this afternoon if we can catch some thundery downpours. All part of the wonderful variety of weather we get in this country.

Just finished Good Girls, loved it! Not just the ladies that like that fella Second season of Ozark is out at the end of August, the first season was brilliant

Another dry warm day . Cut some more barley yesterday at 14% my lowest ever moisture off the combine utterly amazing for North of Scotland. I think the current soil moisture deficit is around eight inches and trees and grasses are all turning brown so autumn is here. Feeding cattle on a daily basis with zero grass growth again. My contractor in baling the straw this afternoon in clouds of dust. Currently 14c and overcast but just dry

Ironically, Friday's cooler than it was on the 12z run of yesterday because of the trough being less progressive; the associated tropical maritime air doesn't reach us until overnight into Saturday. GFS was cooler because of less ridging so in this respect ECM is much better as the trend with the trough and ridge is more to the north and east by the weekend. You can really see the adjustment in the track of LP systems take place on this run as the new regime takes shape. GFS 12z did actually come very close to this; it just look a couple of days longer to weaken the upper level westerlies across the UK, which resulted in one of the lows out west taking an (unusual) due-east track across southern parts during the weekend, with the ridge build set back until that had cleared away. Still needs to find more amplification with the mid-Atlantic trough and Euro-UK ridge pattern, and probably about to fluff its lines as that low out west lifts out NE when it should remain near the Azores, but it's a fair bit closer than the 00z. Hoping for a kinder UKMO run tomorrow - this evening's was very aggressive with the eastward advance of main Atlantic trough - and for the ridge build through the UK from the southwest to trend stronger and more resilient for Sat-Mon across the modelling as a whole. These have been tough times, but I can still see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Same again from all the runs this morning for next week - N/S split developing from Tuesday with sunny spells and warmer weather (low to mid 20s) in the south, more unsettled and cool in the north. All alreas could see some rain on Thursday as the jet takes a bit of a dip south (although the UKMO keeps this system slightly further north than other runs). Back to the N/S split again from Friday. So no return to widespread settled conditions or a heatwave over the next week, but much more typical British summer weather with the usual areas seeing the best of the weather (S/SE) and the usual areas seeing the worst (N/NW). Personally, as a heat lover in summer and being down in the SE, I can’t complain after the weather we’ve had. Today is a beautiful sunny day, after two awful wet days. Sunday and Monday look showery again, so from Tuesday I’ll be more than happy with sunny spells and temperature in the low to mid 20s.

Have purchased a wildlife camera recently so will be setting baits this Autumn/Winter and will hopefully snap some elusive critters and birds.

Tuesday looking like a beautiful warm day:

Thanks for the tip will look out for the bloke with tatts in good girls !

Can’t get back into orange is the new black but the good place is fab and so is good girls omg the bloke with the neck tattoos is ermmm hot ( for the attention of the ladies out there )

Catching up with Orange is the new black & Billions !!

And chill

It’s a good evening for Netflix