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Showing most liked content on 09/08/18 in Posts

  1. 9 likes
    The more eastern main Atlantic trough solutions continue to seem more suspect to me than the more western ones, based on the models moving the tropical setup further away from the Nino configuration than seems reasonable. Ex-Bertha adds uncertainty in that it may interact with the main Atlantic trough in a way that brings about a 'trail' of lower SLP down near the Azores, displacing high pressure across us by late next week in the manner of the GFS 06z, but equally, it could remain independent of the Atlantic trough, allowing that feature to be much flatter in shape. Even in that flatter scenario, though, I'd be surprised to see the main trough move as far east as the ECM 00z takes it. I'm of the impression that we'll have a fair bit of tropical maritime air coming our way next week, but with LP close enough by to wring some spells of rain out of that, particularly in the northwest where it could be very wet overall. Mild to very mild nights, but away from the south, near to below average daytime highs keeping indoor temperatures comfortable for those who don't like it hot. Then for the final third of the month, we move into 'Nino-forcing proper', with a good chance of exchanging westerlies for a continental flow (for more than just the odd day). Models still need to adapt their tropical outlooks a bit for that to start being represented better.
  2. 6 likes
    That’s great. like you I love hot weather, just not the oppressive heat we’ve had recently. If everyone liked the same thing this forum would be boring
  3. 3 likes
    Reading your post yesterday about the MJO coming out in phase 2 and seeing the westerly wind burst currently underway near the dateline as a result of the Nino static wave it seems to me that we might expect a higher amplitude MJO in phases 4-6 (assuming events persist) which would fit with some of the things spoken about.
  4. 3 likes
    Lovely day,and im serious,so nice to have a decent drop of rain,been a fantastic summer so far,but I am glad its cooler
  5. 3 likes
    Now that we finally have got some weather, it has confused the weather forecasters last night's forecast contained possibly maybe perhaps, 3 months of predictable weather has caught them on the hop
  6. 3 likes
    The rain started early this morning approx 7 am. The rain is quite light but persistent and for some strange reason my cat Simba wants to go out in the back garden and get wet. He keeps on meowing at me and then doing a little dance by walking in circles. I hope the rain will get heavier today and it such a relief to have cooler weather. I hope it will stay for two weeks so as to replenish the gardens etc. It will also be good for wildlife and I will not to water the garden plants today, which will be a relief.
  7. 3 likes
    After enduring a period where i could have probably slept on the covers, last night was certainly the coolest in a while since i woke up actually feeling a little chilly.
  8. 3 likes
    Drizzly rain this morning, was actually nice and cooling for me as I walked the dogs, looks to be some real rain on the radar, not sure it won’t be more drizzle by the time it reaches here though.
  9. 3 likes
    0z GFS and I’m still not seeing any return of the Heat wave we’ve just seen. Temperatures maxing out at 24-25 degrees which is perfect with variable cloud & rain and maybe the odd storm. Perfect.
  10. 3 likes
    ECM maxes for end of week (mainly but not exclusively in the SE) - taking the raw data plus the usual 2C - are 28C or 29C each day from Wednesday to Saturday. In most years we'd accept that as a heatwave, I think. The way this year's going, I can see this being upgraded further. (yes, you can see I've ditched my half empty glass for a half full one again )
  11. 3 likes
    Almost a week on, and against the efforts of the models to progressively remove the signal as described in the caption extract, the signals have been fighting back. It remains sensible to view NWP from outside the inner circle. Cluster and ensemble data also hampered by inconsistency and erratic perceptions. Current steer from the Global Wind Oscillation is a slow low amplitude orbit underway circa Phase 8/0 which acknowledges the degree of re-amplification there has been upstream in the Pacific (as outlined in the most recent post ) through this week and injected just enough energy into the polar jet downstream to edge the heat into the nearby continent. But the models have been blind-sided by the tropical activity in the Pacific that flares up in addition to any low frequency signal - and which they are often slow to respond to. Hence the out and out trough solution suggested in recent days for the weekend ahead of an amplified Atlantic ridge, has been watered down and greater downstream ridge persists instead. This in turn has altered the apparent evolution for that once depicted upstream ridge to move eastwards and try to settle things down into next week. However, this is far from the end of the story. Worth taking a look again at the implementing standing wave pattern in the Pacific and seeing how the July pattern started to adopt to that in terms of position of tropical forcing. Which @Singularityhas already alluded to. The outlook remains focussed around the difficulties NWP is having related to this regime - in the short term, the flare-ups of more micro-scale cyclonic forcing in the Eastern Pacific which adds positive wind momentum upstream and cancels out this weeks attempting amplification (upstream). This activity is superimposed onto the moving on of the cyclical low frequency MJO signal before re-starting its new timeline eastward cycle. The Hovmollers wind anomaly cross section also depicts this positive momentum in the Pacific clearly close to 180W This means that resolving troughs and ridges downstream within an apparent upper westerly flow into the medium term is not straightforward and subject to further amendment within closing timescales. Then into the medium and longer term itself the re-engagement of the low frequency signal itself with the Nino standing wave which is highly likely to repeat the sequence of late July once again. The re-entry point heading east from Maritimes within last third of August. There is little point in posting deterministic modelling of this that far out at this stage - as progress of developments with the usual 5 days, let alone beyond it have not been reliable. This ultimate destination of the low frequency tropical convection signal in later month involves, downstream, the re-implementation of a substantive ridge to the NE, likely overspreading an amplified upper trough that is perhaps more likely to dig southwards and become slow moving to the SW as opposed to the more progressive west>east solution in late July. The ramifications of this are highly interesting indeed for those of us who want summer extension to take us through to conclusion and beyond : More settled, but most especially the further north once heads and always a good chance of mid level convection and thundery potential showing up due to destabilisation c/o of the stalling trough to the SW spiralling up some embedded features in the humid airflow from the south to keep folk entertained with some light shows in the darker mid evenings - and still plenty warm enough for many to keep sitting outside and enjoying themselves In that sense, it could well be the summer officially finishes not too dissimilar to how as it was ushered in during late May. There is credible evidence and reason to support such a scenario, which also is not also unnoticed by the professionals in the extended outlook over and above any weather enthusiasts of this site - so on the basis that none of us are paid to make suggestions or predictions, then what the heck, lets have some fun and see how it unfolds Finally to complete the post and in relation to the continued process that underpins its logic and conclusions: I think, yet again, some further repeated correction needs to be given to a few posts made since the one under update consideration - in respect of the El Nino (standing wave) and its alleged lack of effect on our downstream pattern in summer, or at any time. The emphasis of this continues not to be the base state itself as I see repeatedly still keeps being incorrectly misrepresented regarding these summaries, but the changing relationship the atmosphere is adopting to on-going slow shifts in base state and which do impact on synoptic changes from upstream. One cannot deny that changes in jet stream profile upstream in the Pacific will not impact on the downstream pattern - and in this sense it is not wise to take NWP at face value where there are complicated and sometimes contradictory signals occurring upstream. This principle applies such as it does currently in summer as much as it does in autumn, winter and Spring. This atmosphere/ocean relationship is not linear as this year has proved so emphatically - with the east based La Nina providing a very different winter (also relative also to the stratospheric state prevailing back then) than commonly seen under "traditional" La Nina's where the tropical signal is much less eastward. than it was. Similarly there are a-typical El Nino's where the most common atmospheric responses expected are altered in state. But the point is we can take each on its own merits and then identify how the atmospheric relationship may, or may not be altered from this state and then see how other factors may also augment or detract from them The whole purpose of this kind of GSDM analysis is to widen the parameters and hence open minds to possibilities within NWP, not straight-jacket them into x+y= *one size fits all boxes* based on any given base state supposition
  12. 2 likes
    Storm and a half that Got a few vids to upload later.
  13. 2 likes
    I don't think any of us were expecting those storms today well certainly not to that extent... Greast suprise! I think there may be a few more over the next few days..
  14. 2 likes
    Can't beat an unexpected storm . Although this one seems to have died somewhat. Looking forward to a cool, comfortable night's sleep later
  15. 2 likes
    Totally unexpected as its cool. Enjoying the intra cloud lightning a few rumbles and my windows are open loving the rain hittimg the windows heaven after dry for so long @snow raven just down the road from you
  16. 2 likes
    As with the Ecm 12z operational, tonight's ensemble mean ends encouragingly with the azores ridge building in closer, as it also did with the 00z mean.☺
  17. 2 likes
    Storm has arrived at surbiton 4 flashes of lightning and loud thunder so far and it’s hammering down . Oh and a rainbow to boot , the rain is my easy excuse to dive in to the pub for a quick beer . Nice red sky too ahead of the storm.
  18. 2 likes
  19. 2 likes
    Fantastic day work wise,fresh,nice breeze,ability to cool down exiting sites,no headache. Very nice indeed,very happy chap
  20. 2 likes
    I could definitely feel & see signs of autumn today. The swifts that have been flying high and screeching all summer seemed to have headed back on their long journey to Africa with their young. Also last night I saw several Daddy long legs in the garden and it was pretty much dark by 830 Next thing I’ll be looking for are spider webs on the bushes in the morning, always a sure sign. Bring it on
  21. 2 likes
    Exactly. With SST’s so high, we could see similar albeit more watered down activity as what happens in the Mediterranean during the autumn months, a lot of water based convection and storms!
  22. 2 likes
    Yes, it would be boring, we’re all different and have our own likes/dislikes. I probably like it hotter than most in here but anything over 32C isn’t pleasant in the UK, unless you have a pool or aircon (sadly, I don’t yet, but I do the lottery every week so am working on it).
  23. 2 likes
    A wet and blustery weekend to come as shown by the Net-Wx MR Model.
  24. 2 likes
    Nice moderate rain here in sw london this morning,heavier stuff on way. Fresh at 17c. The cool down is complete. Could be a rather unsettled spell coming up looking at met fax charts. Nice change.
  25. 2 likes
    That Biscay storm system looks like it could get nasty across the channel later tomorrow. Wide variance in what the models are suggesting, the track seems set but the deepening is quick on ECM leading to 80mph gusts over the Netherlands. Let's hope they do have the track right. A shift 100 miles NW from this developing system could bring gales and torrential rain to the SE fringes of our region.
  26. 1 like
    What a cam! Wow. Some epic flashes seen already.
  27. 1 like
    It was a still from a video so cheating a bit. It was never really overhead here, just rumbled to the south west and then the north east! Best storm we have had though (we have had one night with three loud rumbles of thunder all summer).
  28. 1 like
    There are a few sites that hold data on UK temperatures. Offhand Trevor Harley weather has annual and monthly highs and lows. Can’t remember if this is the site that also has daily records also? Torro also has daily records at least for cold.
  29. 1 like
    Yes!! Second storm about to let rip here in SW19,very loud thunder,huge raindrops,not too heavy yet! Good CC lightning now too....today been a weather watchers dream.
  30. 1 like
    Se some more showers and storms entering th me Region now , it was bizarre looking at the radar earlier as the storm we had earlier seemed to go in a completely different direction to the main rain band but went right through it too , never seen that before . Even now the a shower is very close to the main rain band is is moving in a completely different direction.
  31. 1 like
    Yet the same model was showing high temperatures yesterday! Struggling big time.
  32. 1 like
    With such big differences between ECM and GFS at 144, that shows that the models don't yet have a handle on what's happening next
  33. 1 like
  34. 1 like
    We do need occasional rain even in the summer just to survive, ask the Australians. Unfortunately rain brings cloud and Lower temperatures but it’s still plesent outside and the forecast looks variable with a bit of sun some rain and unfortunately some cloud ️ still decent weather in my book.
  35. 1 like
    i did have a thunderstorm, it has just cleared
  36. 1 like
  37. 1 like
    Also did you know that the painted Lady and Red Admiral butterflies actually migrate in Autumn back to Africa I find that amazing.
  38. 1 like
    Right then just looked in detail at the potential overnight and into tomorrow morning. Looks good. Steering winds are just S of W veering to just N of W by tomorrow afternoon. SST – 850HPa temp difference is 14-15°C. 500HPa temps bottom out around midday tomorrow. CAPE naturally is at it’s greatest at this point. The flow is quite slack and directional sheer is less than 20°; both positive signs in this setup. Let’s wait and see what happens but I’ll be keeping an eye on the Irish sea for some beefy cells and occasional sferics after midnight.
  39. 1 like
    Awful day today in the SE, such a contrast compared to recent weeks. We were up at 32c a couple of days ago. Today is wet and cool.
  40. 1 like
    Haha, I wouldn’t bet on it. 2-3 days like this a month would be ok if the rest was warm and sunny.
  41. 1 like
    75 is in the top ten though sounds about right !?
  42. 1 like
  43. 1 like
    A rare day for this summer, a convective day
  44. 1 like
    Well everyone has their different preferences and we must respect that. However I will never personally consider 30c for a few days with low humidity 'oppressive summer heat' that to me is a perfect summers day, but that is strictly my opinion. Either way this weather today is depressing and a reminder why I usually dislike summers in this country much, predictably no storms like always on Tuesday night but pointless drizzly rain which won't green up the grass much anyway. Looking forward to next week when I can go outside in the evening without being cold and do long hikes in the countryside. Visiting London's parks on Monday was awesome, felt like I was in Madrid with the 32c and yellow grass.
  45. 1 like
    Morning campers! Cauld, raining and downright dreich! I can see the fire being lit today!
  46. 1 like
    I hope so - I have a lot of friends in Holland and they're all a bit worried Thankfully I'm not flying out there until the end of the month, could have been a rather interesting flight....
  47. 1 like
    Looks like there was something interesting off the Welsh coast last night. The ocean effect beginning to kick into gear. We will see more of that sort of thing as we get towards the autumn. With SSTs being so high I expect ocean effect/lake effect convection will be a huge feature well into winter.
  48. 1 like
    I'll just leave this here then https://eastyorkshirehemp.co.uk/
  49. 1 like
    Take a look at the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are obviously not surface but will give you an idea on what direction the upper flow is, basically is it a cold or warm flow! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html not a 'warm' flow for sure and more trough dominated than ridge. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php less marked troughing but little sign of any ridging or even heights building that is in the 6-10 day period. The 8-14 also a similar sort of chart. No sign though of the Atlantic winding up.This does leave probabilities for a day or two at a time with surface ridging but none of the charts shown really gives any solid idea where this might occur. Possibly one over or very close by the UK, maybe the near continent but that is really straw clutching rather than scientific. No constant deluges and no return in this period to our 'summer'.
  50. 1 like
    Global Warming, weak jet stream and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seem to be the culprits in the eyes of the experts Pete. Here's an interesting tweet from meteorologist Simon Lee comparing global temperature anomalies in 1976 versus 2018. He notes that in 1976 the anomaly over the UK stuck out like a sore thumb, whereas in 2018 the positive temp anomalies are widespread around the world. This quote from Professor Tim Osborn, director of research at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, in an interesting article on the Guardian website The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause?, confirms the global warming impact and also notes that the 'baseline' for impact from other factors (such as weak jet stream) is now higher: "However, there is one crucial difference between 1976 and today. The baseline on which these effects operated is very different today. Since 1976 we have had several decades of global warming – caused by rising carbon emissions – which has raised baseline global temperatures significantly. As result, any phenomenon such as the weakening of the jet stream is going to have a more pronounced effect than it did 40 years ago.” Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause According to the Colorado State University index the AMO turned negative in January 2018. This tweet from Phil Klotzbach, Research Director, earlier this month: The impact of the AMO is mentioned by Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, in the Guardian article: Other factors involved in creating the meteorological conditions that have brought such heat to the northern hemisphere include substantial changes to sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. “These are part of a phenomenon known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,” said Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office. “In fact, the situation is very like the one we had in 1976, when we had similar ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and an unchanging jet stream that left great areas of high pressure over many areas for long periods,” said Scaife. Here's a NOAA chart showing the AMO negative in 1976:
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