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Almost a week on, and against the efforts of the models to progressively remove the signal as described in the caption extract, the signals have been fighting back. It remains sensible to view NWP from outside the inner circle. Cluster and ensemble data also hampered by inconsistency and erratic perceptions. Current steer from the Global Wind Oscillation is a slow low amplitude orbit underway circa Phase 8/0 which acknowledges the degree of re-amplification there has been upstream in the Pacific (as outlined in the most recent post ) through this week and injected just enough energy into the polar jet downstream to edge the heat into the nearby continent. But the models have been blind-sided by the tropical activity in the Pacific that flares up in addition to any low frequency signal - and which they are often slow to respond to. Hence the out and out trough solution suggested in recent days for the weekend ahead of an amplified Atlantic ridge, has been watered down and greater downstream ridge persists instead. This in turn has altered the apparent evolution for that once depicted upstream ridge to move eastwards and try to settle things down into next week. However, this is far from the end of the story. Worth taking a look again at the implementing standing wave pattern in the Pacific and seeing how the July pattern started to adopt to that in terms of position of tropical forcing. Which @Singularityhas already alluded to. The outlook remains focussed around the difficulties NWP is having related to this regime - in the short term, the flare-ups of more micro-scale cyclonic forcing in the Eastern Pacific which adds positive wind momentum upstream and cancels out this weeks attempting amplification (upstream). This activity is superimposed onto the moving on of the cyclical low frequency MJO signal before re-starting its new timeline eastward cycle. The Hovmollers wind anomaly cross section also depicts this positive momentum in the Pacific clearly close to 180W This means that resolving troughs and ridges downstream within an apparent upper westerly flow into the medium term is not straightforward and subject to further amendment within closing timescales. Then into the medium and longer term itself the re-engagement of the low frequency signal itself with the Nino standing wave which is highly likely to repeat the sequence of late July once again. The re-entry point heading east from Maritimes within last third of August. There is little point in posting deterministic modelling of this that far out at this stage - as progress of developments with the usual 5 days, let alone beyond it have not been reliable. This ultimate destination of the low frequency tropical convection signal in later month involves, downstream, the re-implementation of a substantive ridge to the NE, likely overspreading an amplified upper trough that is perhaps more likely to dig southwards and become slow moving to the SW as opposed to the more progressive west>east solution in late July. The ramifications of this are highly interesting indeed for those of us who want summer extension to take us through to conclusion and beyond : More settled, but most especially the further north once heads and always a good chance of mid level convection and thundery potential showing up due to destabilisation c/o of the stalling trough to the SW spiralling up some embedded features in the humid airflow from the south to keep folk entertained with some light shows in the darker mid evenings - and still plenty warm enough for many to keep sitting outside and enjoying themselves In that sense, it could well be the summer officially finishes not too dissimilar to how as it was ushered in during late May. There is credible evidence and reason to support such a scenario, which also is not also unnoticed by the professionals in the extended outlook over and above any weather enthusiasts of this site - so on the basis that none of us are paid to make suggestions or predictions, then what the heck, lets have some fun and see how it unfolds Finally to complete the post and in relation to the continued process that underpins its logic and conclusions: I think, yet again, some further repeated correction needs to be given to a few posts made since the one under update consideration - in respect of the El Nino (standing wave) and its alleged lack of effect on our downstream pattern in summer, or at any time. The emphasis of this continues not to be the base state itself as I see repeatedly still keeps being incorrectly misrepresented regarding these summaries, but the changing relationship the atmosphere is adopting to on-going slow shifts in base state and which do impact on synoptic changes from upstream. One cannot deny that changes in jet stream profile upstream in the Pacific will not impact on the downstream pattern - and in this sense it is not wise to take NWP at face value where there are complicated and sometimes contradictory signals occurring upstream. This principle applies such as it does currently in summer as much as it does in autumn, winter and Spring. This atmosphere/ocean relationship is not linear as this year has proved so emphatically - with the east based La Nina providing a very different winter (also relative also to the stratospheric state prevailing back then) than commonly seen under "traditional" La Nina's where the tropical signal is much less eastward. than it was. Similarly there are a-typical El Nino's where the most common atmospheric responses expected are altered in state. But the point is we can take each on its own merits and then identify how the atmospheric relationship may, or may not be altered from this state and then see how other factors may also augment or detract from them The whole purpose of this kind of GSDM analysis is to widen the parameters and hence open minds to possibilities within NWP, not straight-jacket them into x+y= *one size fits all boxes* based on any given base state supposition

ECM maxes for end of week (mainly but not exclusively in the SE) - taking the raw data plus the usual 2C - are 28C or 29C each day from Wednesday to Saturday. In most years we'd accept that as a heatwave, I think. The way this year's going, I can see this being upgraded further. (yes, you can see I've ditched my half empty glass for a half full one again )

The models have of late become keen to kick off a new MJO propagation from the Indian Ocean in about 10 days time... but this is counter-intuitive, as the Nino state favours a more eastward point of initiation, across the Maritime continent. There's been a slight trend in the modelling toward that, but not yet enough for the models to start capturing the onset of the next Nino-type AAM cycle that occurs as the MJO moves east from that region. Given the dominance of warm SSTs in the C and E Pacific, I'm inclined to believe that the overall average MJO diagnosis in the H-W plots will actually follow a path very similar to its previous cycle (red line in the plot below), starting from where that cycle was on 6th or 7th July. So longer-term modelling is in the 'highly suspect' bin for the time being. Before that - in the 4-10 day range - we look to be in a state of modelling chaos as a result of tropical cyclone activity in the Central and East Pacific which is supplying extra convective forcing and nudging the pattern toward a more Nino-like state by an amount that is fraught with uncertainty. This has exceeded model estimations, hence the models slowing down the approach of the weekend trough, and doing so in a pretty inconsistent manner. This does mean that the timing and path of LP systems next week is totally up in the air. Best to just focus on the weekend details while waiting for the models to get a better handle on things, if you can afford to.

Take a look at the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are obviously not surface but will give you an idea on what direction the upper flow is, basically is it a cold or warm flow! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html not a 'warm' flow for sure and more trough dominated than ridge. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php less marked troughing but little sign of any ridging or even heights building that is in the 6-10 day period. The 8-14 also a similar sort of chart. No sign though of the Atlantic winding up.This does leave probabilities for a day or two at a time with surface ridging but none of the charts shown really gives any solid idea where this might occur. Possibly one over or very close by the UK, maybe the near continent but that is really straw clutching rather than scientific. No constant deluges and no return in this period to our 'summer'.

Outlook - changeable and generally cooler than it's been of late. Current NH profile The storms of last night have moved away to the east so generally a fine, fresher, start to the day which will continue in many places in the east but the key player today, and as it happens tomorrow, is the occlusion lying along western coasts. This well track slowly east and frequent heavy showers will be generated in it's wake mainly concentrated in northern and western areas. The sooth east will stay dry and pleasantly warm. The occlusion continues to move slowly south east thus still showers behind it but the complications arise in the baroclinic zone to the south east as a wave develops on the front and tracks north east. The system itself will pass to the east of the UK so how much the of the heavy thundery rain will effect the south east is still not certain but, according to the Icon, that area can expect some showery outbreaks. By Friday the low and heavy rain has tracked into Scandinavia leaving the UK in a brisk north westerly airstream with frequent showers and a relatively cool day But by Saturday the depression out in the Atlantic has become more organized and is 995mb south of Iceland with the associated fronts bringing strengthening winds and rain, heavy in places, to the north of the UK. On Sunday the cloud and rain has slipped a bit further south but as the upper trough has also extended further south some warmer air has been advected into East Anglia. The NH profile at T120

Still a bit baffled with what's going on but can't be denied - a good majority of runs have it hot for England and Wales at the end of next week, like the GFS So if someone put a gun to my head today and said "forecast next week to me!" I'd say a bit up and down at the start of the week, hot for 2/3 days SE at the end (north stays changeable), then a front passing through making it fresher for all. A more traditional UK summer: 3 hot days and a thunderstorm

Yes GFS still has the high pressure influence next Friday T204: GEM looks the pick if a return to fine and settled is your thing, ridge building back in at T228 in a way that looks like it will last for longer: ICON meanwhile at the end of the run T180 still looks westerly dominated: So still quite a bit of uncertainty, given the background signals I still favour a return to warm and settled, the question is how long it takes.

Great summer??!!!? Boiling, sweating, stinking, disgusting, energy sapping, sleep destroying, sticky, exhaustion inducing, burning, opressive, god awful heat is not my idea of a "great summer". Autumn cannot get here soon enough...

Thank you Knocker , for your superb, "ramp" free synopsis, during the past few months. Regards, Tom.

Yep it’s a cracking GFS run from Tuesday onwards for a of portion of the UK. High pressure dominated for the southern half of the UK, extending northwards at times too. GEM also excellent.

Well there's some cracking weather developing next week and well into the following week on the Gfs 12z operational further s / e...very warm / hot with reloading high pressure..temps into the high 20's / low 30's celsius..yet again!☺..add to this the fantastic extended outlook from exeter and there could be plenty more hot sunny high pressure in the weeks to come!!

Enough is enough. If you like the heat, great. If you don't like it, that's great too. It's not a competition. This consistent butting of heads trying somehow to prove one point of view is right or wrong is getting tiring and all a bit pathetic really. As mentioned above, it's subjective, there are no rights and wrongs here. Someone who does or doesn't like a weather type doesn't need to be guilt tripped and called selfish with stories of how certain weather conditions create problems, since frankly no-one can control what the weather is going to do. And whether it be hot, cold, wet, or dry, the weather can and does create issues for people, nature, business etc. So, any more of this stuff, please report it. And those consistently harping on and on about it, please stop now before we end up having to stop you taking part in these discussions. (PS - the raft of posts on this subject from this afternoon have been deleted)

Super combining day with clouds of dust off the combine and still only the 7th of August and about a quarter done. Fairly breezy , low humidity with sunny periods and up to 17c in the afternoon

But you stated matter of fact that the end of September 1969 saw a mini heatwave, and then quoted the stat that it was in the 70's. You only mentioned subjective experience and 'stats being irrelevant' afterwards when people suggested otherwise. If that's how we do things I may as well say it was 36C yesterday because I was doing physical work outside and felt pretty hot.

Looking at the models over the last several weeks you can clearly see the Atlantic is waking up. I think any very warm spells from now on will be fleeting events of between 1 - 3 days or so. Definitely the tell tail signs are there that a change is starting to happen. 1 or 2 more warm spells wouldn't go a miss before the autumn properly sets in.

Updated fax for tomorrow and the ecm And the weekend

Well what a difference, this morning. We still had to have the fan on, in our "sauna" of a bedroom, last night. But actually woke up with, cold feeling legs. Actually had to resort to putting on, long pyjama bottoms rather than shorts, to come downstairs. Something I havn't done in weeks. So to the chappy on the MOD thread who suggested that this interminable heat, was a "win win" situation, for everybody. Today, for me anyway, is a "win win" situation. Have really struggled with health issues, during this spell, culminating with an appearance at a hospital, in Sidcup. Wife frantic with worry that BP had gone through the roof and I was about to have another stroke!! Fortunately, BP was fine and doctor suggested I was suffering from heat exhaustion. One individual even had the temerity to suggest I was "laying down a guilt trip". NO, laying of guilt trips here, just offering balance to some over zealous ramping, in other parts of the forum!! Regards, Tom.

Although we still had to have a fan on in our "sauna" of a bedroom last night, woke up with cold legs and had to resort to putting long, pyjama bottoms on, rather than shorts, to come downstairs and take BP medication. Bloody marvellous , havn't had to do that in weeks!! Still feels humid and clammy in lounge though, so have put fan on. So thundery breakdown, ended up being a mainly east of meridian event but mainly just for the south of the region. Thought EURO4 performed best of the models, in that regard. Regards, Tom.

Perfect day today for getting about and working without pi##ing with sweat. Why anyone would want it any hotter than this is beyond me. More of the same please weather gods

There is but unfortunately nobody seems to use it. For those thinking that the hot spell coming to a temporary end marks the 'waste' of all that hot, humid build up of air then fear not. SST's are higher than normal and the prolonged dry, hot spell means that the ground is still dry even if it does rain. Add to this the hot weather is never going to be that far away. I expect the hot air will be back (met office long range forecast hints at this) and it would not take much to rebuild the heat and humidity again. Hot summer's can lead to very thundery autumns, and I expect this year to follow suit with storms well into Autumn.

Wow the Ecm 00z goes for another heatwave later next week with +15 T850's meaning temps potentially into the 30's celsius yet again!

hmm.... begining to move in the right direction, the gradual evolution this far suggests pressure ridging to our east, troughing to our west?... we arent there yet but IF the current evolution progresses there could be tangible signs of more heat

I’d like it warmer than today, simply because I love hot weather and it makes me feel good. Nothing wrong with that in the slightest. Others prefer cooler weather, nothing wrong with that, either. Our wants are irrelevant to the actual weather. I’m glad many found today comfortable, looks like we will see a bit more variation in temperatures for the next week or two.

Looks pretty good to me, especially but not exclusively further s / se...☺

A lot of uncertainty remains tonight, over when (not, in my opinion, if) the warmer settled weather takes hold again. GFS parallel, FV3 keeps the westerly flow right through to the end of next week, the this at T264:

Plenty of very warm / hot weather on the Ecm 12z after the next couple of days with uppers generally in the +10 to +15 850's range, at least across most of england and wales!☺

So much more i've found. Stats don't take individuals perception or view of weather into account. Memories are far far more important i believe. At that specific time at that specific place the feel and tone of the weather can be vastly different to what the stats portray. Stats have their place but are of limited use in many occasions,they can distort what actually is happening with regard to how the weather actually feels on the ground.

Looking through the GEFS 12z there's good support for high pressure to build in next week, there's some beauties in there which bring back fine and very warm / hot weather.☺

Knocker... What a fantastic job you do on here. If the above happens it sure will prove the variability of our weather for once and all. Just look at the chart above... If it comes off then Spain and particular N Africa are now amongst the cooler areas. The same applies to Scandinavia. The heat does continue in Central Europe, but to the SE and particularly in the Middle East it is looking distinctly chilly for the time of year. No wonder we can become enthralled in our changing climate.

Amazing, it looked really dark to our East - I imagined you would have had a good soaking in the Purbecks. I was up in N Dorset walking on the Downs last night and saw some young badgers foraging - they look very small and thin for their age but at least they are alive. I imagine they will be raiding blackberries for moisture now and will have had a good feed of worms in the rain a fortnight ago which will have helped bolster them. Hard times for many creatures but insects and their predators probably doing alright. We live quite near the watermeadows and are seeing an abnormally large number of bats in the garden (four different species), I am wondering if they might have moved away from drier areas. We also have a little owl visiting which I have not seen before (occasional tawny owl in the past but not little owl ). It visits both at dusk and at 4.30 am!

Don’t think we even got a drop of rain. However, breeze this morning is most welcome.

This morning is what summer should be like,comfortable,easy to live with.

What a stunning summers morning. What with the cool down brilliant sun blue sky and fresher too but temps climbing to mid twenties today perfect

Another most agreeable day weatherwise. Overcast for pretty much the whole day with a few bright interludes but feeling lovely with a maximum temperature of 21C. Light to occasionally fresh westerly wind and dry. Rather spiffing sunset this evening.

Waste of time even writing this, but what a s**t place to live for thunderstorms

ICON 18z keen on super Saturday, T84, for the southeast at least! Miles away from what was showing on the models over the last few days, I've still got in mind that Met Office contingency planners forecast of 55% likelihood of the hottest category going into Autumn. Brave person to bet against it after tonight's output - after all, for some this was the point that summer ended , if that can now be counted out that probability of 55% just increases! big time.

Snow lovers might want to book a holiday to Australia http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5973275/Pictures-Australias-ski-fields-blanketed-snow-Perisher-Resort.html

Yes it was https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/7-day/24348~Rotherham

Nice sunny and warm here, in fact with the lovely breeze and no humidity, it's perfect. More of this would be nice.

Sorry, but stats are irrelevant to me as when I post about the weather it's my SUBJECTIVE experience. Some people don't seem able to understand the difference. This is the Moans, Ramps and Chat thread not one of the formal threads, where I avoid posting.

Sadly just a 'blip' until satin's bottom weather returns...I just wish it would do one, we've had months of it.

ECM showing the potential for further heat later next week A long way off yet but one to watch

Looking ahead to Autumn and winter and the ENSO state i looked for first year Nino events that never got past weak because i don't think we reach moderate as things stand (we won't see 0.5 until at least September if not October for a monthly value and it's rare to keep strengthening through the winter) and also because i am still not 100% convinced that don't just see warm-neutral. Those years were.. 1953 1976 1979 2004 2006 Now in the Autumn they are mostly mild fests with persistent blocking to our east and low pressure to our north and west (a beauty of a pattern for the eastern US though) however the Jan-March period is a cracker with the blocking to our north east stretching to Greenland and largely showing the same thing for three months. It should probably be noted though that if we were looking on CET grounds then 07 was a stinker (beaten only by 2014 in my lifetime), 05 though not wet was largely mild until the second half of Feb, 1980 was episodic with a warm Feb between the cold Jan and March. 1977 had a cold start but went mild in Feb and so our hopes really rest on 1954 which was pretty cold through Q1.

"So thundery breakdown, ended up being a mainly east of meridian event and mainly just for the south of the region. Thought EURO4 performed best of the models, in that regard." Have to also give some praise to METEO GROUP via the BBC. Their graphics looked pretty spot on, through the day, yesterday. Line of thundery showers, stretching up from the south cosat NNE, just to the east of London. Had I not had the fans on in the lounge, late evening, would no doubt have also heard the rumbles of thunder, here in Lee, that Leeanne (Snow Raven), reported hearing from Bexleyheath. Meteociel Dew Point maps, tell the tale, lovely greens flooding into our area, bliss!! Ahh, breathe. http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/point-de-rosee.php Regards, Tom.

As was expected - nothing, zilch, nada!

*insert rude joke here*

Is this one of those moments where should just bin the lot of them? On the one hand, the ECM gives a surprise blast of heat followed by worst case scenario low. The GEFS on the other hand has members thinking of 2003. It's really all over the place. The wife wants to know when a good couple of days for camping will be next week, I haven't got a clue.

Yes, thanks, got me thinking - there are a number of other possibilities of course: Fancy a steak and kidney? - Piegate Wondering about the meaning of life - WhyohWhygate MI5 move into town - Spygate Infestation of flying insects - Flygate Outbreak of public grief - Crygate Nosing into your neighbour's business - Prygate Porcine farmer sets up shop next door - Stygate and so on! But back to the weather, it's still Drygate

The Icon appears to be taking the wave on the elongated front associated with the low pressure over Norway a tad further west on Thursday than this morning's fax chart. Need to await this evening's update.