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Had to move/hide some posts. Please can we keep this to model discussion, as oppose to a circling pit of blame where those who like heat are given a hard time, and those who prefer the cold are shouted down? It is extremely hard to keep the balance in here, in fact it's been like it all year since we had the significant cold snap. I don't think anyone here wishes the ill effect of the weather on anyone, and it's a bit poor that people feel the need to infer that if someone is talking excitedly about an extreme, then they are wishing harm on people. I am one of those who is interested in the extremes for sure, but. I don't for one second wish that anyone ends up squashed flat by an EF5 tornado. Does this make me a terrible person also? No. It makes me a weather enthusiast. If there isn't already (and I'm sure there is) then may I suggest that if there's the burning desire to debate the impacts of incoming heat/storms/whatever, then someone opens a thread for it. Thanks, please continue.

In general the model output has trended towards more comfortable levels of warmth with high pressure likely to build and settle right over the UK with temperatures close to 30c in the south by the end of the week. Now the question is whether the high displaces eastwards to pull an exceptionally large and intense area of hot air forming to our south. If this happens with enough forcing from an Atlantic trough or cut off low to our south west then i think we could have another go at approaching some quite exceptional levels of heat.

ECM day 5 - The 12c line pushing into the SW approaches which will see temps up to 27/28c - Heading upwards post that- The initial heat could be more centred on the SW which makes a change ! But the sunny weather will be mor widespread in the south...

The outlook over the next few days Is certainly different to what we have been used to recently with the cyclonic influence becoming paramount and thus bouts of wind and rain with temps much cooler Currently the storms of yesterday evening are still effecting the north east and will continue over eastern Scotland as the cold front clears into the North Sea. With the center of the low pressure adjacent to western Scotland frequent heavy showers will be the order of the day, particularly in N. Ireland and western areas, in the brisk south westerly wind with temps much nearer average. But away to the south west the next wave with associated fronts is winging it's way north east and more concentrated cloud and rain will effect the south west by evening. Overnight and through Sunday the low will track NNE across the UK to be north of Scotland 994mb by 00 Monday so Sunday will be a wet and windy day, with gales in some areas, for virtually everyone by Monday the UK and the eastern Atlantic are dominated by low pressure centred to the west and north west of Ireland with fronts just clearing east into the North Sea so the UK in a brisk south westerly wind with frequent showers, mainly concentrated in the north and west. A not dissimilar day on Tuesday with temps perhaps even a little below average Wednesday sees high pressure starting to ridge NE into the south so a tad warmer but systems still swinging NNE bringing some cloud and rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland And the NH profile at T120

ECM actually manages to drop the trough down in the mid-N. Atlantic on the 12z, but for some reason the low then moves due east, while south of the main ridging zone, a behaviour I can't recall ever witnessing with LP systems... except in the case of tropical disturbances. Surely that's not what the model just developed?! There's also an extraordinary persistence of 20*C+ 850 hPa temps over the eastern N. Atlantic to the west of Europe. I've also never seen anything on that scale and intensity there! Incredible to think about what would probably transpire down the line from there given that another ridge would likely to move across the UK from the SW - the huge heat plume would head north and then make its way over to us from the west. Some moderation would obviously occur, but SSTs are high enough that the uppers could conceivably still be in the upper teens. We're at total fantasy range here though! The model does do some really strange things these days and that east-moving disturbance is one of the finest examples I've seen this season. I do believe that an update early this year has led to some losses the Atlantic-Europe sector by way of exchange for verification gains when it comes to modelling the globe as a whole. Regardless, one trend is inescapable - the model runs are producing higher SLP over Scandinavia. It's a stuttering process and pretty slow as well, but it's there, and ties in nicely with the Nino forcing background being picked up on. From a continuation of this trend along with increased persistence of a digging trough out in the N. Atlantic... need I say more?

From T96 the ecm starts the process of deconstructing the trough in mid Atlantic which initiates northward ridging of high pressure from Iberia into the southern half of the UK and thus more settled conditions and temps warming. The 0600 geostationary, Some hefty showers around and a couple of passing brief thunderstorms down here earlier.

What a storm in East Lothian. super lightning show, some rain finally, gusty winds. And I watched it approaching on the radar so could leave the pub just in time to get home

Given that the post I'm quoting was as much of a ramp than an objective analysis, I trust that my cool ramping response will be treated as leniently by the moderators. I think the poster might be surprised to learn that there are some down here in the south and east who are more likely to despair at the ECM 00z showing 20+C 850hPa temperatures than the 06z GFS indicating a merely hot spell of weather rather than daytime mazima of 39-40C which will undoubtedly cause an increase in hospital admissions.

Fit to teleconnections out of 10 for today's 00z runs: ECM 6/10; while the local positioning of the ridge brings about higher temperatures on this run, there's still more digging of a trough down in the mid-N. Atlantic needed, and the model continues to lower pressure to our near-NE at a time when it ought to be heading the other way. The two are linked; the trough into Scandinavia gets there because of how flat the N. Atlantic jet pattern is. EPS Mean 6/10: The trough-ridge pattern is hinted at, but not very well defined, particularly days 9-10, and the ridge doesn't reach into Scandinavia much. UKMO 6/10; a slump toward ECM from this model as it loses the mid-Atlantic trough on day 6 and moves part of the remnants over to Scandinavia. This score may be a little harsh though; the run could recover on days 7-8 as a trough moves S of Greenland and that could feasibly dig south toward the Azores. GFS 9/10; a dramatic rise to the top spot, as the Atlantic trough digs down well, and days 8-10 see the downstream ridge in a position that matches the teleconnection signal very well. GEFS Mean 6/10; some suggestion of the mid-Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge pattern days 6-9, but it could do with being better defined, and there's then more of an Atlantic ridge on day 10 so something's clearly amiss there! GEM 7/10; although it arrives at a major plume situation with a high becoming slow-moving with its axis to the E and NE, the main Atlantic trough is very weak and loses shape by day 9. This will be the last set of ratings; this is actually a fun little experiment - will check back in a week's time to see how close my best-rated model runs fit to the actual outcome. Funny how it's just the GFS run that really stands out this morning, having been the poorest of the 12z set yesterday. Somehow the run keeps resolving the signals better every now and then, only to drop the ball again within a run or two.

Taken by a pal Hunstanton

Said it wouldn't make me popular!! But to hear the comments about the wind today, seriously!! You'd think a hurricane, was blowing!! It was so nice to open my front door this morning and feel a fresh BREEZE, blowing in !! It's been like a b....y millpond, for weeks!! We live at the western edge of a huge landmass, with the vast Atlantic to our west, where our prevailing wind, emanates from, what do you expect, the DOLDRUMS!! Regards, Tom.

Picturesque cloudscapes here as the showers have passed through. Only one direct hit though with a few rumbles earlier on.

May be she should see a doctor!

Thunderstorm just moments before it hit Greatstone yesterday evening, it was certainly very wild for a while. Very strong south-westerly wind as I type although dry and sunny to go with it.

After the ECM ensembles it looks like the form horse is very much the re-ridging from the Azores that we saw for much of early summer, so lots of glorious summer weather, ECM mean at T240: FIM9 at T228 has a similar idea My expectations are that this type of scenario (which is lovely summer weather ) will continue to be shown by model output, as will the high temperature plume scenarios. Who knows which will win, but both are a long way from the Atlantic dominated summers of recent years!

Won't make me popular, on here but really hope the heavier ppn, makes it further S.E., tomorrow!! Regards, Tom.

Yes, I agree, I think the next plume if it happens will impinge the SW first, because of the build up of heat that might be advected towards the UK from that direction. GFS 12z shows this too, T216: It's quite impressive how far into the Atlantic the models are regularly predicting the very hot air will get further south. Having said that most runs I've seen run the hot air across Southern England to the SE pretty quickly even if they enter the SW first. No guarantee there is going to be another plume yet, although it looks likely.

UKMO 12z seems to suggest any plume will be further west than the recent example. While I don't wish to inflict a heatwave on those in the west and south-west who do not want it, surely it's only reasonable for more areas to enjoy/endure plumes this summer?

I guess we’re the opposite then! Living down here in the SE we probably are closest to having what you would call a continental style climate that you could get in the UK. If we could see hot summers like this and cold winter weather as we had in March every year I’d be a happy man!

Very nasty storm here at the moment in Antrim, some of the heaviest rainfall I've ever seen and huge gusts of wind. Lots of thunder too with some hail too. I'm situated directly under the white echos in the attached radar grab

Really interesting to note that the Ecm 00z builds on what it showed at day 10 on the 12z last night with a plume of extremely hot humid air spreading north into southern areas..great continuity..hope it continues!☺

A quick cut down video of the storm near Louth. I have around 8 hours of editing to do, I will be busy! https://www.newsflare.com/video/225731/weather-nature/torrential-rain-and-winds-as-severe-storms-hit-lincolnshire

Just got back home. Following witnessing the storm over Louth I headed back to the east coast just north of Mablethorpe and watched some very infrequent but spectacular lightning out to sea. Things then started to kick off and an absolute corker of a storm moved over just after dark. I was just near to Threddlethorpe. Frequent lightning, CG's, IC's, booming thunder and lots of rain and strong winds. Basically all hell let loose for half an hour. Driving back there was debris everywhere. Incidentally the Louth storm may be responsible for a tree on the road near Fotherby. To think I probably didn't see the most severe of the storms either! Looking forward to reading all the updates tomorrow as I expect there were numerous reports of severe storms. However I have been out since 4am and so now I must go to bed

WOW WOW WOW !!! That storm that has just passed over us (still a few flashes of lightning) was INCREDIBLE the closest lightning I have ever seen definitely a positive cg strike must have been yards away made the hairs on my arm stand up BLINDING FLASH followed by the loudest shotgun thunder I have ever heard, also some crazy intense rain in the middle of the storm, lots of flashes of lightning, cloud-cloud and intra cloud lightning, very gusty winds. I will have videos up tomorrow, and also possibly more storms overnight with more developing in the north sea and the north west of England.

Not much comment about the Ecm 12z but I like it a lot, pressure gradually rising across the uk, becoming generally warm, indeed very warm or hot again across the south and becoming largely settled with plenty of sunshine..☺..just get rid of this cooler atlantic dross and back to the heat asap!..maybe even some more thunderstorms for the south later too?️

I'm not so sure.. A lot of us are avid gardeners and growers of lots of veg and fruit so we need rain

UKMO looking toasty by Friday again...850s over 12c and light winds. We’re going back over 30c by the looks of things.

@Singularity will be pleased by the UKMO efforts with high pressure building through the UK with a trough in the Atlantic with the heat already pushing into southern England by Friday. Certainly back to around 30C or so in the south and it is warm to very warm for near enough everyone with a very slack easterly breeze. GFS A decent effort as well with the Azores high building north east, not quite as warm as the UKMO at this point but not too bad and certaily scope to develop things further with the trough moving east to hopefully displace the ridge eastwards.

UKMO 12z at 144hrs is very anticyclonic

Today is just what the doctor ordered. 21.1C with 44% humidity and a keen breeze so you can have all the windows open and blow that awful stagnant heat of the last two weeks out of the house. Instead of 28C+ inside its now down to 24C already. Lovely!

To a point, I'd argue that rain doesn't affect as many outdoor plans for most people as severely as 33-34C and 45-50% humidity. Obviously, if it's teeming with rain it's difficult, but, with the exception of barbecues, most events that necessitate being outdoors (festivals/gigs for example) aren't completely ruined by rain in summer as it's usually warm enough to prevent people from becoming uncomfortably cold. By contrast, I think most people found doing anything outdoors other than sunbathing in as few clothes as possible/legal over the last 2-3 days here brought them out in a massive sweat, which failed to cool them as the DPs were too high, and left them feeling lethargic/unwell. If you doubt the accuracy of my comments, ask yourself this - why do the authorities in Australia (a nation whose people are used to heat and whose houses are designed to stay cool rather than insulate the occupants in the cold) start issuing heat warnings advising against exercise or strenuous physical effort outside when the daily maxima exceed 35C?

@chrisbell-nottheweatherman If it persists then obviously see a doctor. Don’t over exert yourself, maybe cool water on a cloth on your forehead too to lower body temp. Overheating to the best of my knowledge won’t leave lasting problems. Drink plenty and take it easy.

Good run from the GFS parallel this morning. Here at T210 has the plume scenario back for next Sunday: This time favouring the SW for the highest uppers, I think this is reasonable given where the heat to the south tends to be setting up on several runs.

I think the upshot of this thread is that there are a variety of reasons, yet we do not know the true cause. The atmosphere is so interconnected that it may take well beyond our lifetimes before we understand how all the players contribute to weather at a more local level. Correlations with sun activity seem to be there. Teleconnections play a part, but what causes the teleconnections to do what they do? The SSW event seems to have also played a part. A generally warming planet has probably (IMHO) had an effect. Looking at it all together, it seems that all the cards fell in just the right place for the summer we have had so far. But, we do not yet know why all the cards fell as they did.

ECM is a scorcher right at the end +21 850's just about clipping the extreme south

The difference a day makes. Today feels and smells so much better. This smell is Petrichor,something chemists have been trying to mimic without success. Everything just feels so much cleaner,the air especially. Gone is that muck we've endured for so long. Thankfully nothing showing that would replicate the last several weeks,first day of a pleasant summer! People won't suffer in these conditions,wildlife will recover,win win.

No hail here but about 23mm from the two lots of storms. Month is now only 10mm below aerage at 63mm This is from our back window looking towards Redcar and Teesside about 15 miles away.

After a few dodgy runs from ECM the 0z is pretty peachy. Just need a jog north-west to keep more of the country happy. What a great start to the weekend. Now going to enjoy this ‘blip’ of fresher weather before the heat gets turned back on after midweek MNR

* Edit Day 6 sees the +15c line pushing into Cornwall = 30c

Much much better GFS this morning and the 0z has a fleeting fly by from the Spanish plume. Pretty much high pressure dominated after early this week. Game on MNR If UKMO went on to 168 I don’t think that would be far off a plume event. Overall a pretty good morning of early runs.

This is my image Paul tried to link to. Shot from somewhere near Flamingo Land looking WSW toward York. The muppet in me forgot I'd had my camera set on medium jpegs rather than RAW as I'd not wanted to confuse my Dad who borrowed it the other day, otherwise I'd probably do something better with the pics

Lovely and fresh this morning. The 'howling' wind is back and very welcome it is too. Respite from the heat and much more comfortable. More days like this are needed.

Finally, we are back to normal summer temperatures (for me anyway). It is so much nicer today and is a pleasure to be up and about without breaking out in a sweat! As for that breeze.... perfick!!

Two spots of rain here about 02:00. (I had to get up to close some windows). Missed the eclipse due to clouds.. So I have now recorded 2.3mms of rain in the last month. (so far) Temperatures back down to 18.5C this morning with sunny intervals and a strong breeze. We need a good drenching for the garden now. MIA

The sun plunges into another deep minima. This year we have had 117 blank days thus far running at 56%, 30 of the last 31 have been blank. This allows more prolonged coronal hole effects on Earth, In turn the jetstream reacts wildly to deepening minimas.......this is a very interesting year indeed. This hot pattern likely to see us into September at least imo. It’s certainly ready to challenge 1976. Interesting though that with this pattern we are not smashing heat records all over the place.....the pattern is ripe but..... See you guys in autumn.... BFTP

Looking at the 'post storm' analysis of strikes from Convective Weather shows overall a very active night for the UK (215,000 strikes) and particularly for our Region. But reading back through the posts of the last few pages there are comments from folk in Worthing, East Sussex and East Norfolk that they largely missed out. I've zoomed in on the strikes chart and you can indeed see two distinct 'fingers' of hardly any activity - particularly the one from the South Coast up through Sussex and into the Dartford/Thurrock area. That's definitely bad luck!

That's a scorcher of an airmass over western Iberian on ECM 0z

Sun out again, after a short spell of rain. So nice to feel fresher again, after the past few weeks. Sorry all you "heat freaks" and Brontophiles, stand aside, most of you, have had your fill!! Let this partial Brontophobe and lover of cooler weather, have his place in the sun!! I'm sure your turn, will come around again, before the end of Summer!! Regards, Tom.