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Evidence keeps growing through this early summer period that fine warm weather patterns may defy previous years - and rather than vanish off the map, instead increase in frequency and duration as time progresses 1) A convectively coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) is actively core punching the La Nina trades in the eastern Pacific with signs of westerlies also replacing La Nina trade easterlies at the dateline 2) Active MJO activity has persisted for some considerable time and is looking set to return quickly to the Indian Ocean for another eastward orbit - very much on the accelerated periodicity (timeline recurrence) side of the envelope. I wouldn't be taking amplitude and progression from the Wheeler and Hendon plots too literally at face value this early on because the deterministic models become quite unreliable in terms of "seeing" eastward propagation of tropical convection and tend to undercook it the further out in time. There is the ultimate suggestion of eastward progression back to the Pacific into July anyway which implies rising AAM. Edit: Two plots have not appeared for some reason.. The absence of lack of future activity suggests a reduced time for atmospheric angular momentum to fall back in the "lull phase" that is just starting - and in addition to the trades in the Pacific apprehended (as above) implies further westerly winds to be added in due course across the tropics, with jet extension into the Pacific from Asia promoting further programmes of downstream anti-cyclonic rossby wave breaking 3) The CFSvs 2 receives some dubious feedback for its NWP projections, but in terms of atmospheric signalling in my experience it proves a valuable trends ahead model. It has been consistently advertising the now occurring downturn and next uptick in relative angular momentum tendency to centre somewhere around 23rd June - maybe a day or two later. This fits the next referenced MJO tropical cycle activity and it also acknowledges the consistent warming of the Equatorial Pacific as assisted by the current surge in convective/cyclonic activity linked to both the concluding MJO wave and especially the CCKW east of the dateline 4) Furthermore, a latest CFSvs2 forecast is for a reversal of atmospheric state from La Nina to a more El Nino like circulation through July. Whilst the timing of any future El Nino state is open to question, the general atmospheric trend suggested is given credence reflecting the shifting sands occurring in the Equatorial Pacific and also fits the next expected upward trend in AAM tendency starting later this month increasingly into July. Synoptically this supports extended NWP ensemble data and increasing hopes for further ridging across UK and rest of Western Europe. Assuming this trend, then natural seasonal wavelength changes into the heart of summer would fully augment this atmospheric trend with potential for increasingly very warm/hot spells The shorter/medium term lull endorses the more unsettled/split pattern with the Azores High influence mostly restricted further south and, based on lower angular momentum lag, best not to be surprised by any modelling showing reluctance for the ridge to migrate too far east as initially suggested. However, far from a bad outlook and the further time progresses, then the greater the percentages increase for ridging to gain proper eastward and northward ascendancy for the greater part of the UK. As often stated, making suggestions for possible outcomes is much better suited to me than making forecasts, but based on steady continuing supplies of evidence, its not unreasonable to be quite optimistic most especially for July prospects to build on the extended spell of fine weather that is currently breaking down, at least just for the time being anyway.

Yes mike it's great to see an Ecm operational looking much better towards the end, looking forward to the mean which has been looking more settled than the ops recently..there's lots to like about this evening's run after this week..at least for england and wales..next tuesday looks potentially very warm across southern uk.

ECM looks like it finally makes the grade. Last few runs have disappointed in the final couple of frames, but this one pushes the high over the UK at T216: Power to add at T240, just a little increase in optimism from me tonight!

GFS ensembles well on board with this ridge from the Azores, here the mean at T240: Summer '18 is going to happen, I think

Now this is what we want to see: Doubling down on that, here at T252, I want to see more charts like this showing on subsequent runs, but this is an outstanding chart!

1030mb approaching the south, my marker of confidence in high pressure location. Starting to look quite good for the end of the month!

EC looking really good this morning- infact the azores high is gaining strength with each passing run it seems. I suspect that run would be producing some decent temps across southern parts- mid 20s?

Agronomist who I have known since Aberdeen college days was in today saying that he is rushed off his feet as crops rush through the growth stages in their efforts to produce seed before the lack of water kills them. No fungal disease just now though but protecting them stll worthwhile if the weather suddenly changes to wet. As Scottish Skier says the lack of water makes them short too so straw for bedding will be scarce and expensive again this winter. We have gone from plant growth being two weeks behind in mid April to plant growth being two weeks ahead now . Very surreal As an aside was asked by someone if I was worried by Brexit on the farm and I said the politicians may think they have problems with it just wait till the weather impacts on global food supplies in the not so distant future. Seems at least one other farmer has the same view as me according to a neighbour. Witness the daily increasing price of grain on the futures markets. Most of the major grain producing areas in the world are experiencing extreme weather. On a cheerful note we had our first outside strawberries yesterday

ECM 12z ensemble mean is supporting the op run, seemingly quite emphatically. So we've high pressure building on op runs and ensembles, a very favourable Met Office contingency planners forecast, optimism from @Tamara earlier on the background signals. Slam dunk!

Wouldn’t worry too much, the 6z and 18z are pretty much ignored by met professionals due to the lack of data compared with the 00z and 12z runs.

Morning all A return for the morning medium term analysis from me. After a synoptically fascinating late winter and spring with the latter starting with an incredibly cold spell and ending with one of the warmest and sunniest May months for decades, where does summer go from here ? It's actually quite cool and uninspiring in London Town this evening but where will we be on or around Midsummer (at least in solstice terms) ?: ECM 00Z at T+240 (Friday June 22nd): A typical summer chart for NW Europe with the Azores HP ridging strongly NE and a weak jet held well to the north. Decent conditions - warm but not hot with a gentle NW'ly flow and always the risk of damper and murkier conditions on western coasts and hills. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Much more solidly anticyclonic with the ridge over Ireland and NW Britain so a cooling NE'ly breeze for southern and eastern areas meaning it's pleasant rather than oppressively hot. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: The Azores ridge has a more easterly tilt so crosses southern parts with most of the British Isles covered by a balmy WSW'ly flow. Fine and warm especially in the south but cloudier and mistier to western coasts and hills. GFS 00Z Parallel at the same time: Not hugely different from the OP. GFS Control at the same time: Closer to the GEM. In summary, it's quite settled vs very settled as we move to the end of next week and those attending the last couple of days of Ascot should be fine in their finery (so to speak) with comfortable to warm temperatures but nothing excessively hot or humid on offer. Dry for many if not most but western coasts always vulnerable to a muggier Atlantic and some drizzle and low cloud at times, It's not very interesting synoptically in all honesty but it's summer weather - beyond that the question is whether the ridge relaxes back SW or cuts away to the NE and that might be of much more interest.

Just to wander off piste a moment but the EPS anomalies are certainly trending in the right direction this morning. In the medium term they lose the N. American ridge and realigned the vortex and trough over N. Canada which is good as it lessens the trough influence in the Atlantic and allows the Azores to ridge north east.whilst building heights over Europe. It needs to kick on from this position

A quick look at last evening’s EPS short range 500mb anomaly shows strong ridging over North America with a large , somewhat diffuse, vortex/upper trough over Greenland and the north west Atlantic resulting in a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic into the UK. This will portend a change to more unsettled weather with temps nearer average than of late. Back to the detail A dry night last night but still quite humid in the south and cloud did infiltrate eastern and more central areas and this may linger in many places though the day. Further to the west it will be sunnier and showers could well pop up in the NW, Wales, west Midlands and the south west. Temps not as high as yesterday with a much cooler and fresher feel as on the northerly drift as the ridge nudges east. After a dry evening and night Wednesday will be another generally fine day with hit and miss showers popping up here and there but cloud and rain with an increasing south westerly wind, associated with the developing low and complex frontal structure to the west, will start to impact N. Ireland and western Scotland by midday and then move slowly east. Temps not too bad and certainly clearer weather in eastern coastal regions in the south westerly. By 00 Thursday we have this quite complex scenario with the wave deepening on the strong jet and wet and windy with gales, perhaps severe, in the north The front will traverse the country through Thursday leaving a fresh westerly in it's wake and a more showery regime. Friday a continuation of sunshine and showers but these more confined to the north associated with an occlusion and quite warm in the south as the Azores temporarily ridges north east. By saturday a rather shallow low has moved over the UK and this portends instability and a fair bit of convective activity with some heavy thundery showers in places Temps near average but with quite a regional spread.

I am really liking the 18z run with the jet a lot further north in the latter stages conpared to the 12z heralding another fine spell of weather courtesy of the azores high bring it on

FABULOUS EC and EC mean this evening.. The azores high is on the move, pretty much as Tamara suggested a few days ago.

Your local soil must be proper clay, that holds water and gets boggy if it rains a lot. Here, it’s more silty and dries out quickly, despite all the rain we had earlier this year. I don’t think anyone on the forum wants endless rain and floods. Just some useful rain from time to time to naturally water crops on allotments and gardens, interspersed with warm sunshine. Watering with a hose or can is fine up to a point, but a good rainfall works wonders and the plants prefer it.

Great looking ecm, high generally centred out to the west, but pretty settled and feeling nice in any sun. One to bank in the decent category!

A John Major day with just a few glimpses of the sun. Quite a stiff breeze at times, a warm up for the main wind event later in the week (that we could do without as the plants are stressed enough as it is). The last few days may have been overcast but the ground is still drying out at a fair old rate - beds watered thoroughly last Friday already dry down to 4cm depth. Out with the sprinkler again and thank goodness we don't have water meters! Birds seem to be stressed with the weather as well. Normally the bird feeders are ignored by this time of year but this year they are emptying them in a day.

ECM seemingly playing the usual game during times of Pacific tropical forcing; underestimating the downstream impact on the patterns around the UK and having to correct slowly but surely toward the other models as a result. I say seemingly as I’ve known the models to play tricks on me before .

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is another step in the right direction towards a warmer more settled spell returning..very nice trend.

I wouldn't worry about finer details at this range....only a couple of days ago it appeared low pressure would be more dominant and we would have to wait for any high pressure influence. If that can quickly change, then charts at D8-10 aren't going to be accurate at all. I always say get the high pressure build in first, then worry about that later.

The good news this morning is the unsettled spell looks relatively short lived

I am quite looking forward to a pattern change if i am honnest,get rid of this stagnent few weeks that we have had with claginess coming in off the north sea at times to be replaced by a SWl'y or westerly,don't get me wrong,it has been lovely and dry most of the time with temps well above the average but i do fancy a change,reset the pattern and get the azores high in then enjoy some propper summer weather with the added bonus of plumes coming up from the south that's more like it.

Probably some model runs to go before we firm up on what happens after the brief unsettled spell, but the 12z FIM9 is going great guns at T240: And the pub run not looking too shabby at T162, obviously this has a while to run yet, but all looks promising to me! Go summer '18

You have to say it correctly like the papers do: ”Britain set to bask in a RECORD-BREAKING THREE MONTH HEAT NIGHTMARE the met office say. Their supercomputers have PROVED we will see APOCALYPTIC HEATWAVES as hot weather sweeps the country MELTING HOSPITALS and probably causing the ELDERLY to EXPLODE... and... ...THE EARTH WILL BE DESTROYED! (Turn to page 3 for a more detailed outlook)”

How about you all stop moaning already,As far as i can see it's better than having lows barrelling through with constant rain and said 'Easterly' winds that certain individuals were moaning about so how about people be more positive for once like Frosty or take a fairly balanced stance like MWB or Singularity then maybe people would pay more attention to what you say instead of looking for the worst things you can find and having a little moan about it. Also thanks to @Djdazzle for backing up my point. To keep this on topic i'll also add on my favourite chart from the UKMO which looks pleasant enough in my eyes with most of the country fairly settled with pressure above 1020mbars across the country and 1025 in the West. To be subjective i'll also post the GFS chart at 144hrs which is arguably the worst of the bunch if you are looking for settled weather but is by no means bad with the LP system further south meaning less influence from the AH with maybe some unsettled weather and a bit more cloud just about breaching into the far N and NW. Although later in the run it does improve with more influence from the AH although the pattern does look flatter. The ECM is in the middle and looks good throughout until a low infringes in from the NW at 240hrs but that is a long way off and will probably change. The GEM is closest to the UKMO at 144hrs and looks good like the ECM run and stays settled throughout. All in all the four runs are quite similar at 144hrs which shows reasonable confidence in these solutions which is promising for those who are looking for some decent weather with the unsettled spell only really lasting a few days in the South with the north remaining unsettled a little longer. It also shows the GFS' tendency to overblow LP systems with the central pressure of the system to the NW at 985mbars on the GFS run with the ECM,GEM and UKMO at around 1000-995 mbars in that case allowing for it's bias assuming it is incorrect then it would trend more towards the other models. As some of the others have suggested the ECM has changed massively compared to yesterdays run if you compare the two : As you can tell the ECM run handles the LP system over the weekend differently compared to previous runs and the upshot is more HP influence from the AH. @Mike Poole Comparing charts i'd say around 192/216 hrs otherwise they all look fairly similar they seem to diverge at this point with the ECM increasing LP influence and the GEM continuing with it's theme of HP dominance throughout next week. Although i'm no expert so don't take my word as gospel lol. Finally before anyone laughs at me for using the GEM have a look at it's verification stats then come back and you'll see why i'm using it. I know people like @Singularity have already done some excellent analysis but i thought i'd add some of mine in and all in all to round off my post i'd say things look positive if you want to see more spells of decent weather over the next couple of weeks. This took 20 minutes to type so i hope people appreciate my analysis

Well, I don't know what the weather is like at Fort SS, but here in Oslo it's crackin. Norwegians have obviously been enjoying what we have so far this summer. And... Update on Mrs. Blackbird's bairns in the shed at home courtesy of mini miss SS.

Cloudy but warm this morning on the allotment, turned cooler by lunchtime, now the sky has gone a bit darker and getting light drizzle. If it's going to rain can it please get on with it - I'm fed up with watering the allotment

I couldn't agree more, Mike. IMO, the 'Pub Run' argument is barely more credible than the Xmas-New Year lack-of-balloon-data hypothesis...In that, should one filter out the run-to-run amateur dramatics, the overall model-trends tend to 'overwrite' much of the short-term variations, anyway?

This claim is often made on here but whenever I check the verification statistics, it never seems to be really borne out. The differences between the 4 runs at day 5 are not statistically significant, I would suggest.

The Gfs 6z operational is probably best described as a changeable run with a mix of settled / unsettled spells, the settled spells mostly across southern uk where it also looks pleasantly warm for most of the time with temperatures into the low 20's celsius range.

In theory the frequency should increase the further we go into the year. If we are running at over 50% now, it's not a stretch to push that.

The METO has the low deepening to 968mb as it passes Scotland Worth noting it developed in a very baroclinic zone. (fuelled by SST anomalies, tight thermal gradient) https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=baroclinic zone

AO value for May came in at +1.1 which is among the highest since 1950. Looking at other years with +1 May values we get.. 2009 2003 1992 1966 1964 1956 Unfortunately for you summer lovers those summers on the whole (looking at the reanalysis chart) see the settled June followed by a second half horror show. Breaking it down a bit.. 2009 had a relatively average summer with June and August a little warmer and drier than normal while July was cooler and wetter than normal. 2003 was of course among the hottest summers and August breaching the 18C mark (5th hottest). 1992 is the classic example of front loaded with a warm June followed by poor July and August. June is +1.2C vs the 1981-2010 mean, August is -1.1C vs the 1981-2010 mean. 1966 is an extreme front load with June being the warmest month of the summer, departures of +0.9, -1.7, -1.7. 1964 was a little cooler than average from start to finish, a cooler version of 2009 in effect. 1956 was a very cool summer with an August that was -2.9C vs the 1981-2010 average .. It would seem from the above then that you guys are rolling a dice (1 in 6) albeit we can probably discount the later two since we are likely to start the summer with a CET somewhere in the 15C's. .. Looking purely at a statistical base.. June: Equal chances of below average, close to average, above average. CET range of 13.1C to 16.1C. July: 83% chance of a value within 1C of average, 1966 discounted. CET range of 15.8C to 17.6C. August: 50% chance of a value more than 1C below average (~33% of a value within 1C of average), 2003 discounted. CET range of 13.5C to 15.3C. .. If the pattern follows then finishes near the high end of those ranges give us a summer not much different to 2010. If we low ball after June and follow the front loaded pattern then something like 15.5, 16, 15 is possible and would dissapoint.

Well...the Foehn in Geordie land

Decent looking ECM too this morning once that disturbance clears away east into next week. Azores high ridging in, settling things down and warming up. Can't be bad!

Evening all i saw some nice convection today just before i went to work and there was the odd rumble or two of thunder as i stated earlier this Cb was taken around 1:00pm to my east i took my camera to work with me and i am glad that i did because i caught a funnel cloud(pic took by my mate with my camera),ok the pic isn't very good as i was traveling but you can make it out just left of the lamp post,it was def a funnel cloud because it was rotating and finally,a pic of a Cb to the SE on my break at 6pm.

Well, some hope showing on the anomaly charts, 2 out of 3=GFS and tonight NOAA 6-10. That is the ridging from the Azores are with increasing heights, slight on NOAA but more pronounced on GFS, again less so on EC. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Please remember at hte next issue of both sets above they will change from what is shown this evening

The European or June Monsoon is a buzz phrase that we often hear about, and it's back in the media again at the moment with the return of westerly winds, but does it exist? Is there a frequent pattern for late Spring blocking to come to a halt in June with a more Atlantic, westerly based spell of wetter weather setting in? Personally I think there's something to it as we do seem to have frequent westerly incursions around this time of year, but it could be a trick of the memory, as @Jo Farrow says, with it being the start of summer and with plenty of outdoor events on the go. What are your views? @Weather-history - maybe one for you, any stats that could back up the theory?

What a Beaut of a day yesterday was! Certainly feels a lot cooler today, with mainly overcast conditions here. Hope all is well y’all! technical difficulties have resulted in me loosing my temper with my weather station, so it’s gone to weather station heaven (Hell) . Reinvestment imminent!

Certainly one to keep an eye on Knocker.. Net-Wx take..

miles better than a horrible easterly breeze SS

The 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS) The ecm take on the low

7 day's blank, 87 day's for 2018, 53% Solar flux 70

I had to smile at that comment, you should spend a week in this part of the world in early summer. Even your good self might get a touch fed up of what we get while western areas see something yellow in the aky. This morning was the first time with a full sunrise, indeed any sunrise for just over a week. It does get tedious believe me.

Thank you please keep posting with charts and your views. Everyone has the same right of opinion and especially when you talk through charts. Keep it up.

Absolutely, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks even better than this morning's 00z regarding the last third of june..hopefully we will see a return to summery weather during next week, at least across southern uk.

Well an improved ECM this evening, and the mean continues to send the jet stream north , now at 192 hours so fingers crossed the momentum carries on tomorrow. :)

Interesting to note our Thursday storm and front originating on the eastern seaboard at the moment

It's the formation of the second low that may cause the problems as it deepens rapidly over 24 hours. The ecm is indicating 80mph gusts for western Scotland. The 1800 geo. Some nice convection and cloud on the way?