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As if by magic, the green snot uk trough has vanished, the Ecm 00z looks a lot more pleasant now..and that also goes for beyond T+240 hours.

Yesterday’s storm didn’t come to anything, just seen one flash of lightning and heard a few rumbles. I was in the Lake District last weekend, here are some pics I took. The sunset was beautiful!

Had a meaty storm here this afternoon in the Charente (after a small one this morning) This picture taken as it was arriving and left about two hours later. Formed in about 30 minutes from two discrete cells which merged into a bit of a beast leaving everywhere flooded and a lot of lightning damage.

This evening could provide some interesting developments. Huge storms just the other side of the channel, very high temps here in Surrey, plus really clear air and the cumulus have a very defined edge to them. An upgrade (of sorts) to CW this afternoon putting pretty much the whole of southern England in the picture for a (admittedly very low) chance of something electrical. Nevertheless it’s a good reason to keep one wary eye on the radar for the next couple of hours... these slack flow conditions can be rather unpredictable

In spite of nightly drizzle the ground is getting dryer by the day and we are only about two weeks away from permenant drought crop damage especially on the sandy soils nearer the coast. The problem with wishing for rain is that when it comes it forgets to stop. According to Mrs Northernlights when the school holidays arrive the rain will start. Currently dull and misty and 17c

There was some disagreement on last evening’s det. runs on if, and when, energy tracking east south of the Canadian/NE North America/southern Greenland trough complex will slowly erode the European/Azores block and introduce Atlantic systems into the mix over France and the UK. The short term anomalies do not provide an answer but they give a good overview, imo, of the problem In addition to the aforementioned trough complex the main players are the main vortex lobe in the eastern Arctic and associated east European trough underpinned by the European high pressure ridging into Greenland. And to complete the mix, the Azores high/Iberian trough combo to the south. Currently the energy exiting N. America is diverging in mid Atlantic as it encounters the block, leaving the eastern Atlantic and the UK in a slack pressure area with high pressure to the north and low to the south which would portend temps still above average and the probability of mainly dry weather during the this period. Which is where we came in. Will the energy eventually create a conduit, via the trough in the west, through the block and forge another link to the Iberian trough? We shall see what today brings forth. Back to the here and now. The persistent rain still over central and southern Scotland will continue for a while before slowly petering out this morning. Elsewhere a mainly clear start to the day, but not so humid as of late, continuing on to give a warm and sunny day in many places, which could well trigger some storms in Scotland and east/southern parts of England. These may continue to pop up during the evening before dying out. Through Monday night and through the day cooler air is introduced behind the decaying fronts slipping south and this will initiate quite a marked west/east split on Monday and in the warmer and sunnier west showers again could well pop up whilst the east suffers some more from low cloud and mist from the onshore wind. The overview on Tuesday sees the Azores ridging north east whilst getting a gentle nudge from the trough to the west with the Iberian upper low still in situ. Which on the surface translates to a fine dry day but again with a west to east bias with a continuation of the light onshore winds. Wednesday sees no significant change over the UK so again dry and warm/caveat east coast, but the trough over northern France is creeping closer, and to the west the trough has made some progress in splitting the ridge. By Thursday the trough is still sitting to the west with the UK remaining under a very slack gradient which portends another warm and dry day but with the possibility of it being cloudier in the south with some thundery outbreaks as the aforementioned trough takes closer order. And so the battle continues with nothing particularly sinister lurking in the woodshed according to the gfs.

Until if and when we see the MJO head on through the Pacific, we are effectively riding our luck in the low momentum environment, hoping that none of the disrupting troughs deposit a low right over us. Its intriguing that we’re seeing ECM suddenly lurch toward the undesirable outcome with the disruption at 5 days range; the exact same thing happened with respect to the low for last Wed-Fri. That time it proved to be a rouge run, though the low never adjusted as far back the other way as it had been, and the south has suffered from that. Perhaps the same will occur with respect to Wed-Fri next week? As much as it displeases me to type those words, I fully accept that even great summers usually have some more unsettled spells. Those which don’t are the rarest of the rare and not for the sane of mind to reasonably anticipate, no matter what the background signals - some degree of fluke comes into such a summer. Like, a tropical cyclone moving in the right way at the right time. As far as I see it, there’s true scope for a changeable spell during the second week of June, perhaps fresher too with Atlantic sourced air in the mix (but not necessarily!), but no reason to expect that to persist beyond that week unless the MJO forcing and upward GLAAM tendency is derailed. Fingers thoroughly crossed on that one!

Whilst there remains the probability that nw Europe becomes troughy in the 6/10 day period, the overnight runs remind us that the broad status quo default pattern is also on the table. should the latter verify, it will be a remarkably stable pattern that has ruled the roost for two months or maybe even more. should be noted that even if the less pleasant extended eps pattern that is referred in an earlier post verifies, sceuro area remains above average with upper ridge and the trough across nw Europe (rather than Iberia or France) is pretty much a variation on a theme

Thanks as ever to Roger for helping me run this. Monthly Figures SteveB was 0.1c with Polar Gael and Radiating Dendrite 0.2c out. However, Radiating Dendrite very unlucky with the figure being rounded down to 13.2c Top 10 Seasonal Man with Beard stayed in a comfortable first place, with Radiating Dendrite 2nd and Godber 1 in 3rd. If the CET figure for the month was 13.3c, Man with Beard would still have won but by a lower margin from Radiating Dendrite. Overall No change at the top with Man with Beard still well in the lead. Don up one place to 2nd and Norrance up 1 place to 3rd. This month's winner SteveB up 12 places 10th (from 22nd) Excel Format May 2018 CET.xlsx

Picked the last of the stones off the neep drills today.We have about 80% emergence and the rest should come when we get significant rain. The pigeons are already attacking the tiny neep plants so got the scarecrows refurbished and into the field. Boris and Donald are on the job keeping the pigeons at bay. Currently overcast very misty and 16c .

Remember this mean chart from the ECM ensembles yesterday T240: Here's the chart from the GEFS ensemble mean for the same time T216: I think the horror show has been averted! The GEFS chart consistent with other 12z output and the change to a westerly over a ridging Azores high will actually give decent weather to more of the country so I'm all for it.

Ukmo is looking good this evening with a more south easterly influence over Wednesday and Thursday

The GEFS 6z mean shows a change to cooler more changeable / unsettled atlantic weather towards mid june with lowering heights to the NW and the azores high / ridge retreating back home..further n / nw looks most affected whereas the s /se could escape the worst of it but according to this it would be fairly short-lived with the azores high ridging towards the uk by or soon after mid month with at least southern uk becoming more settled and warmer again.

Thankfully there was no thunder storm here KW, but could here thunder to the North East towards Kinross. We did get a few spots of the wet stuff about 6-7 pm and some light showers over night, but not too much! As NL mentioned in a recent post, the trouble we in Scotland have is when the wet stuff starts it can forget to stop!!! Cloudy misty overcast here today with the Sun occasionally trying to break through. Big waiting patiently Innes

As above i was expecting a lot worse this morning. ECM is lovely and warm out to day 10, although the behaviour of the Atlantic trough is still not 100% nailed i wouldn't have thought.

The ECM 12z spells hope whereas yesterday's warned of the danger of opening a Pandora's box of hellish weather. Yes the Scandi blocking is on the decline, but today's runs are all supportive to an extent of a ridge from the Azores taking hold. This thread all about the longer term prospects, so here's ECM at T168: T240 showing battle with high pressure from the south and a low pressure system to the northwest at T240, high pressure likely to win this one. I think:

yes as a summer lover im very happy with EC and UKM this evening, the temps will be warm for most with some storms with a bit of luck. It does look like the Atlantic will begin to push towards day 9 onwards and thats a trend that cant be ignored but no complaints from me so far, its been a fabulous May and likely first week of June.

Don't shoot the messenger! It was merely based on yesterdays output as well as viewing the BBC extended forecast (https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44344408) which was broadly similar. I'd be very happy if we didn't get any sort of low parked over the UK, they can take ages to shift.

Despite appearing to be in the epicentre of all the action over the last 48 hours, shuggee still not seen lightning or heard any thunder. Moan moan put me in a home.

Just as too much faith shouldn’t be placed in the 12z from yesterday, neither should it be in the 00z from today. However, given what we’ve seen thus far this spring, you would tend to lean closer to the 00z having more right than the12z’s

.....and breathe...

Your post was clearly reliant on one op run. I was asking about the longer term evolution. X

Echo the above, let's hope that disastrous set of runs from last night are kicked to the kerb as it were. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=144&lid=PANEL&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref A quick look at the postage stamps shows that a few runs do still have a trough, but nothing like yesterdays shambles. Perhaps slightly more unsettled, though not especially so. http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018060300/240-777UK.GIF?03-0 The 10 day ppn charts don't show anything too alarming....a little wetter over Northern Ireland and NW Scotland, trending drier the further south you go.

Yep, remarkable on ECM how dead the Atlantic is ...some places will be looking at water shortages if the dry spell goes out to mid june

I just watch BBC weather forecast the week ahead and it's the same weather pattern as last week and as that if feels muggy when we get into Wednesday a front comes back up from France bring in humid and muggy are and getting heavy downpours like thunderstorms and thundery showers again but Monday and Tuesday is dry and pressure pushes back the high pressure next Wednesday and next Thursday and into next weekend but it seemed hasn't moved it's still in same place

It should also be noted that both May's 2017 and 2018 are the only two May's in the CET record to have a mean of 13.2 c. So quite remarkable that they were both in immediate succession.

13.2 has now been confirmed in all the tables so I guess they rounded down, must have been like 13.249 or something. This is the first time May has had consecutive similar CET values (2017, 2018) since 2003-04 both hit 12.1. Before that, it was 1924-25 hitting 11.6. And before that 1846-47 were both 12.3. Then it's all the way back to 1717-18 for twin 11.0, before that more frequent as most of the values are multiples of 0.5 in the Maunder period.

This one's not bad either

Signs this morning from the GEFS anomaly that the trough continues to make headway east

Another stunning barbecue day - been able to use that more in the last fortnight than in the entirety of 2017. Maximum temperature of 25C and light winds. This morning thought there might have been a shower as the clouds bubbled up quickly to the North and West of us with a rumble of thunder in the distance around lunchtime..... But the wind managed to keep the showers away from us, instead exporting them up towards the W/NW like yesterday. Lovely sunset to round off a pretty perfect day...

ECM12z joins the GFS12z with a green snotty trough splattered over the British Isle as early as next Friday - a big flip turn in what we've seen recently and this is within a more reliable time frame and not just in FI. This to me looks like a filthy pattern that could be hard to get out of so I wouldn't get too excited about the MO's end of June forecast, don't forget the end of last July - seven day before and they dropped the idea of a settled nationwide spell being forecast for early August . .

to be fair, the writing has been on the walls for a while now. Certainly if anyone had been paying attention to the ext EPS.

Evening all For many its been a prolonged period of above average temperatures which is set to continue in the near term though we are starting to see some agreement on cooler conditions towards the end of the week. This week also looks pretty settled for the most part with one or two cool nights for midweek but some warm days. The cooler weather unsurprisingly is coming from the west and whilst May is known for its westerly slumber, June can often see them pick back up again. So it wouldn't surprise me if a fair few of the GFS ensemble members verified. However one alternative is that the cooler air makes its way down to the bay of Biscay instead, something that happened during the middle of this week, whereas according to the more progressive GFS, the cooler atlantic air was supposed to make inroads but didn't. The GFS OP kinda goes in this direction with a low to the SW this time next week which has been a familiar pattern in recent times. However this time we have no Scandi high. Cooler air comes from the NE instead bringing in a cool mid June. The GFS ensemble members are more a case of bog standard westerlies. A few members do send a low west of Spain/ in Biscay and as a result warm air if wafted up from the south. The UKMO also seems to be heading in this direction so I wouldn't dismiss anything yet... even if this is a later chart something similar to this could pop up sooner ECM meanwhile is indeed a turd and we may have to go through some cooler Atlantic weather first. The early part of this month has some similarity to June 1982 I feel

Cheers mike, I try to keep the mood upbeat but you're right of course, I commented on the Ecm before it reached it's dismal conclusion..hopefully it's just a rogue and hopefully the ukmo is right..charts I posted on previous page.

If you want a June 2007 repeat then I agree, it looks fine. Ofher than that, it is a truly vile summer run.

Not much wind and high shower risk in between sunshine. What’s not to like. Much more interesting than a flat zonal flow

I was almost tempted to stand under it. The car was reading 26°C at the time.

ECM 12z is one of the worst summer runs you could ever see. Very unlikely to happen, although it’s a possibility. But it’s a June 2007 repeat!

ECM backs up the gfs ensembles....this has come out of nowhere really, a couple of days ago high pressure looked like ruling the roost. Just shows things can and do change at very short notice. Flabby slow moving Low pressure parked over the U.K. is dire, normally what we end up with in the bad summers. Let’s hope it’s just a blip.

June 2007 I agree

Well lets hope ECM is wrong this evening.. northern blocking and a UK trough.. yuk!!

Ensembles have also also taken a bit of a nose dive, I think this low has shaken the tree as it were. Turning cooler and more unsettled towards mid month is the trend now.

Sorry, but I disagree there. To me I don’t see an Azores high building in any time soon - I personally see a disturbance meandering it’s way towards us in the next 5 days, which will eventually lead to a more unsettled spell - though not greatly so - more or less a continuation of the last fortnight....more unsettled in the south, better in the north closer to higher pressure.

What an amazing sky

I suspect they will go with 13.2 but either way these are the closest forecasts. Steve B has it for 13.2 and Radiating Dendrite for 13.3 ... ties are broken by earlier entries (this list includes the order of entry from the overall field) ... this is just a portion of a larger table over in the other thread. 13.8 _ DANIEL* (58) 13.7 _ 13.6 _ 13.5 _ VIRTUALSPHERE (64*) 13.4 _ RADIATING DENDRITE (12) 13.3 _ 13.2 _ 13.1 _ STEVE B (20) 13.0 _ POLAR GAEL (11) 12.9 _ MAPANTZ (46) 12.8 _ WEATHER26 (6), KIRKCALDY WEATHER (22), DAVEHSUG (59) 12.7 _ MAN WITH BEARD (37), SUMMER BLIZZARD (54), SEASIDE 60 (63*) 12.6 _ PEGG24 (5), SUMMER SUN (23), GODBER.1 (48), MARK BAYLEY (53) ===================== ========================= No sign of any EWP totals yet, would imagine 30-40 mm will do well.

Some spell of weather over the last few weeks, eh? Particularly in the west. In the absence of any profound meteorological observations to share, I thought I’d share a few photos taken out and about during late April and May (the first one being near Scotland’s snow capital - Crail ). Will maybe manage some higher hills during the summer, depending on the weather! Old track, Balcomie, near Crail Old drove road near Broughton Mennock Pass South Queich, Ochil Hills (Lomond Hills in the distance). Old drove road near Skirling Friesian cattle below Loudoun Hill, Ayrshire

Lerwick, currently the no 1 hot spot in the UK at 19.1c. In the same air mass that is likely to provide Olso across the water with its highest ever May temp today. c

Touch and go this morning, here. After a bright sunny start to the day, cloud now trying to push in from the east. I shall remain hopeful that it burns back as the sun rises.

Just popping in outside snow season, absolutely blooming glorious weather, for weeks, weeks!!! what's going on?