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What else might it be blue? Turning to the 6-10 day outlook with the usual 3 500 mb anomaly charts as guide. This is a copy of my notes having studied them this morning. Sunday 13 may Ec-gfs shows ec more trough, little signal for ridging anywhere near uk; gfs still has ridging as its main feature over/close to e of uk Noaa also is trough orientated in uk area for 6-10 although the signal is less definite than ec. Indeed the 8-14 has just a suggestion of a bit more ridging being possible. Hard to know if this is a trend or not Overall the 6-10 day upper flow looks to be from a fairly strong atlantic flow into a much less strong south of west flow over the UK. Thus more unsettled than settled in this period but not a wash out by a long way. Looking like the oft seen NW-SE split, best the further SE one lives? and the charts, see below http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Quite a clear start to the day in western and central areas but the slow moving front that was the cause of the cloud and rain in the yesterday is still very adjacent to the east coast and will remain so for the rest of the day. So although most of the UK will have a relatively sunny day with broken cloud, with the odd shower around in the west, particularly in N. Ireland, patchy rain will hang around in the north east and east Clear periods for most areas overnight but the front is still hanging around the east coast so still cloudy with some patchy light rain in places and another front has pushed into western Ireland bringing more cloud there. This will move a tad further east during Monday bringing some light rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland whilst to the east still cloudy with some showery rain caused by remnants of the front. Elsewhere with a ridge building a warm and pleasant day with temps gradually rising. Taking a step back at 00 Tuesday to get a quick fix on the overall pattern we have the Canadian vortex lobe starting to wander with the associated trough stretching south east into the Atlanti, strong blocking over Scandinavia with the Azores ridging north east towards it and low pressure over Europe. The corresponding surface analysis finds a wave forming on the front dividing the airmasses which tracks north east to be just north west of the Hebrides, as the earlier front decays, by 1200 Tuesday with the cold front aligned western Scotland/Ireland with light rain in these areas. Elsewhere it will be dry and sunny with temps still climbing and now above average. The front and rain will track south east during the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday leaving cooler air in it's wake whilst high pressure consolidates just to the west. The decaying front slides into Europe Thursday leaving the high cell ensconced over the UK thus light winds and quite a pleasant day but the temps are tending to dip a bit overnight with ground frost on the cards and even perhaps a touch of air frost in susceptible areas

I think most will agree tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is showing a predominantly pleasant outlook for much of the uk with sunny spells and it's only really the far w / nw which are occasionally a bit more unsettled but for the majority it looks pretty decent for late spring with plenty of high pressure / ridging influence.

It's a pretty good week coming up with plenty of sunshine and warm tomorrow and especially tuesday when temps will be into the low 20's celsius across southern uk. The midweek period wed / thurs will be cooler but still largely fine with sunny spells but a few cold nights with mist / fog patches and a risk of slight rural frosts but then warming up again through fri and even warmer next weekend with temps back into the 20's celsius, this is based on the Gfs 12z but I should say the icon 12z looks great towards and during next weekend too.

Early doors on the 12s and the models look really great for developing an anticyclonic spell for the UK. The weather not that shabby at the moment for most, but the high taking hold by about Thursday. No explosive heat yet, but it's good to see in advance of the summer months. ICON done so here's the GIF, nice run this: GFS at T114: GEM at T132: UKMO at T144:

The ecm 2-6 anomaly covers the short term evolution but beware the vortex drifting east. The expected drop of temps mid week but remaining dry and quite pleasant. Much of that rainfall will be today.

Some heavy rain overnight clearing just after dawn to leave a lovely day - max of 17C, mainly sunny with light winds. Weather changing now, lot of cloud now moving in from the south and the southerly wind is starting to pick up. Deeside is looking stunning just now with all the fresh green growth and a backdrop of the mountains still with some big patches of snow visible - Scotland's scenery at its best.

Today confirms reason why I rate May over any other month in terms of superb feeling.. yes temps only maxed out around 14-15 degrees, something we often see in October even, but when combined with almost wall to wall blue skies and only the lightest and refreshing of breezes - well you can't get much better in my book. The air has a slight chill to it, but unlike mid summer it is devoid of any haze, and therefore the views are crystal clear - this is par excellence conditions for hill walking in the Lakes. A cool comfortable night for sleeping as well. Tomorrow should bring similiar conditions but will be a bit warmer. The weekend has been very good in that we had heavy rain Friday night and also last night, but daylight periods have been dry.. perfect growing weather. Its days like to day I year for in the depths of a dreary dank winter.

Mick taking temps are becoming the norm in UK. Your better off migrating to Yakutsk in Russia if you don't like heat, although pretty much your cup of tea in winter but summers are generally chilled too around 15 to 20C.

Not really surprising when you're early on in the month it's quite easy to get quick drops/rises while towards the end of the month it's harder to do so. Try it on your calculator and you'll see what I mean.

Although Nina does support a stronger than normal sub-tropical high it's definitely not the norm to cool the Atlantic as a result so i suspect what usually happens is that once we get to early summer and everything shifts north, any enhanced trades during winter/early spring also shift and so by August-October the MDR is nice and warm albeit the impact of shear vs SST's is interesting. As i posted in the hurricane season thread the North Tropical Atlantic values are consistent with developing Nino seasons in 2014, 2015, 2012 and 2009 although of course, two of those flopped.

Well then in some ways then there will be a bonus to what is becoming increasingly likely across our north this summer? Somewhere inside I always knew it would take an unmistakable impact from AGW before the planet would be allowed to grasp just how dire our situation was and it looks ever more likely that it is to be this year and it will be arctic Sea ice loss that brings it. The potential for rapid Antarctic change is mechanical and so is harder to pin down but again, if we believe the Science, can occur at any time now that the Shelfs are primed for it. One wrong swell under tidal max's and Thwaites could begin its retreat. Of course the climate chaos we face from sudden Arctic Sea ice collapse will not stay in the Northern Hemisphere so this year could also form the forcing for the domino collapse of a number of current 'primed' climate forcings with CH4 from Yamal/East Siberian Shelf Sea being top of the list if the Arctic does see a high temp/high ice loss year. We are well past the period of 'waiting' for climate change to show impact. Those who still insist we have nothing to worry about, or worse that some unexpected ice age is set to descend, will have a few questions to answer come August if we do see a continuation of current conditions into summer this year in the Arctic.

According to Weathercast....9.2mm for Heathrow. http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3772.htm. It ended up being better than I expected down here on the coast for much of the day, the heavier rain not arriving until around 4pm and even then not amounting to much. Just 9mm at Herstmonceux

00z UKMO is another great run for settled weather

no Mr Wolf , I am not aware of what you speak of , I am only aware of the scientific research that is going on , here on this planet , as we speak ,,, the things you are talking about are alien to me , they do not reflect the current state of scientific understanding of the world we live in , I have provided many paper on the current level of understanding of the global systems that govern our wold ,,, but you will not be swayed , buy reason , or science the world is not going to end if a fiery ball any time soon , and very soon , a different set of circumstances will present themselves , and the ones that reposted untruths , will have blood on their hands the one's that propagated lies , will be the villains , but their arrogance will save them from any feeling of guilt

You are aware that everything changed in 2013 as reflected in sea ice numbers over ther following years? A human induced tweak on the Antarctic climate is now waning and the AGW forcings are playing catch up for over 30 yrs lost influence. Sadly time's up. Changes across the north, over the coming months, will see such a string signal evolve that even Antarctica will not escape it and with the threads some of the major shelfs halting the ocean terminating Glaciers advances are seen to be hanging by the impacts there will not be inconsequential.

Overall i'm pleased with the Ecm 12z and indeed the models generally which have continued to improve our weather prospects during the last few days for next week and further ahead..could be plenty of pleasant weather to look forward to as we approach the end of the meteorological spring..a few cold nights later next week but apart from that it's looking very decent for most of the time.

Another lovely day here, although a tad chilly in the wind when the sun went behind the clouds when I was out cycling in a t-shirt earlier. Borders are turning that deep, rich green of late spring/early summer. My favourite time of year after winter. Phone snap from a previously unexplored route up onto the southern upland way. Light and camera both a bit crap! EDIT. Also shot looking south to Black Hill. Gorse in full, fragrant bloom.

Hi folks, nice evening here, very warm in the sunshine. This is the view from the park round the back of my house. You get a great view of the campsies from here.

Got some cool Bamboo solar power lanterns for the garden today in Homebase. I'll send a picture when they are on tonight.

Got very tanned in the garden yesterday - was a stunning day. Hoping for the same today.

Nice wet morning here too crops were really needing a drink (We need an inch of rain a week just now to balance the evapotranspiration rates of rapidly growing plants)and everything is really looking green this morning . Probably going out to garden now to do some transplanting in the rain.Currently 9c.

Looking at the 00z central Europe is going to see a lot of rain over the next 10 days whilst the UK gets lucky and sees very little

They’re either nasty, selfish chavs, or dead I’m curious to know how much rain Heathrow received yesterday. Would anyone here know? Quite nice morning here, sunshine and some clouds but looks like conditions improving as the day progresses. Currently a cool 12C with barely any wind.

Lots of sunny, warm weather on the way for the UK this week, we will have a front bringing some rain, moving through on Tuesday and Wednesday though. Read the full update here

Some more from 2017 this day brought us to Amarillo - you can see the city lights under the storm

Not wishing to be outdone here are a few images from 2017 chase trip - This chap not just high in mountains but high as well Obviously Chick George enjoys a good chase. We pulled up in lay bay for a fag and attracted a couple more cars of the same ilk , spooky. Yes that is me in mid June in the snow , in shorts - an afternoon trip into the mountains. Tom

Went down to Gala to visit the daughter - and she was frozen, wearing a wool jumper lol

Quiet times at the moment - I've not been paying much attention to the models in recent days, no expectation of anything especially notable on the cards in terms of cold, warm, or wetness or dryness. Just very typical May weather, which usually means generally very pleasant and on the drier side of the yearly norm - given the atlantic is now firmly in its annual deep sleep stage. So not surprising to see signal for heights to build over the UK in the days ahead, with temporary interruption from the NW mid week and perhaps becoming warm for all by next weekend again (high teens - mid 20's maxes). There is a suggestion the atlantic trough will sharpen quite a bit next week, how this then interacts with projected height development over and to our NE will determine fortunes for the second half of the month - will it be forced to go under and we then see heights transfer to our north and north west - quite normal for May, or will it split with energy going north and south under what would be a blocking high - again quite normal for May. Either way I'm foreseeing quite a lengthy pleasant dry period ahead, with any precipitation on the light shortlived side. If this was July and August, I wouldn't be so certain.. but given its May then the odds are much higher - given the suppressed state of the jet at this time of year.

Opposite here, I was happily pottering in the garden in shorts and a t-shirt. Same as @ciel at 17c, a couple of degrees above the met app forecast.

We're at 13.0C to the 12th, which is 2.8C above the running 1981-2010 average. The mean max is particularly notable at 19.0C, 4.9C above average. The warmest May here since 1980 was last year at 13.2C, so if we manage another warm spell in the second half we should beat that comfortably.

Raining here since approximately 1pm, some heavier bursts have fallen and there are plenty of big puddles forming. Looking at the radar, there’s a big area of heavy rain moving up towards the W half of our region. Forecast a bit off, as it was the E that was meant to be wettest. Feeling chilly at just 13C, though I’m happy it’s raining as it’ll make digging the garden a lot easier.

Interesting that an anomalously strong subtropical high reflects La Nina forcing, yet La Nina years are known to support active hurricane seasons. This implies to me that the lower wind shear associated with La Nina is the dominant factor of the two, though perhaps with the location of disturbances favoured to be more Caribbean/GOM /western Subtropical N. Atlantic relative to Cape Verde/Main Development Region. A year like this one that's on the way out of La Nina could therefore prove a recipe for a suppressed hurricane season, as you get the cooling SSTs but not the lower wind shear. On the other hand, unless an El Nino develops sooner than expected, wind shear is unlikely to be anomalously high either - no probably not a particularly quiet season favoured, just not particularly active either. Just speculation, mind! I have seen forecasts based solely on these factors fall flat on their face before; there's more to consider (but I risk giving too much away then!).

So, a pleasing turnaround by the models after that concerning consideration of height rises heading NW from our vicinity and setting up a major blocking system. Here's a brief look at what's behind this change of heart: Day 5 of yesterdays ECM 00z (left) and today's ECM 00z (right). The main points to note are that a compact low is located north of Scandinavia on both runs, and that the 00z of today has the trough in the Atlantic extending down west of the UK quite a bit more than the 00z of yesterday. A day later and what a difference those changes have made! Yesterday's 00z had the low north of Norway stalling out while the Atlantic trough flattened the ridging across the UK - both working against building heights across to Scandinavia - while today's 00z has the low north of Norway getting caught up in the trough complex across Greenland and the extension of the Atlantic trough down west of the UK supporting ridge development across us and toward Scandinavia, rather than inhibiting it. This also has the effect of trapping more in the way of low pressure across central Europe, which further supports UK-Scandinavian height rises going forward. Not only that, but the absorption of the low north of Norway gives the trough complex across Greenland a boost, helping it to stick around and prevent any path opening up for high pressure to head northwest from the UK or Scandinavia. A couple of days further on and the differences are vast with respect to the UK's weather - but in terms of the overall pattern around us, they're not so pronounced - it's just that the earlier changes playing advantage to the Scandinavian height rises have allowed a blocking high to develop that's large and strong enough to keep the Atlantic troughs from reaching the UK. That the trough isn't as crazily intense also helps! As many are aware, it's not just ECM that has turned the leaf since yesterday morning; a comparison using GFS reveals an equally dramatic adjustment to our weather conditions - and with more in the way of changes around us too (just look at the Greenland heights!): p.s. is anyone else finding the automatic link embed feature has stopped working all of a sudden?

Thats quite a drop for Sheffield in 4 days. Still not CET.

I'm really liking the GEFS 6z mean, especially in the mid / longer term which looks increasingly warm and anticyclonic.

Sunny Sheffield at 13.3C +3.8C above normal. Rainfall 10.8mm 18.7% of average

Some posts have had to go, Please report any issues and not discuss in here as to keep the thread informative and readable. Many thanks, Please continue.

Glad we got some rain, the plants do need it!. Yes Dave and a dieing trade to, plenty of plumbers sparkies plasters etc.. But a good carpenter is becoming fewer and fewer. One reason because its not offered at an early stage, school leavers etc..

Hadley haven't updated since the 8th.

I declare high summer has arrived just seen and heard the first swift fly into the eaves of the house. Also the strawberries are in full flower. I know rain and cold will appear now.

mmmm nobody updating ??? Anyway Glorous Sunny Sheffield is at 13.6C +4.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

Very windy here too with lots of dust blowing about. Currently bright and 14c

my guess is that this emoji will be first used in the MOD thread, although i've just used it Sunny and a bit cooler today

The sun is trying to come out but it feels cold out there just now with a strong and gusty southerly wind pegging temperatures down to 14.5C. A new visitor to the bird feeders today, a one-legged Magpie.

Sunny Sheffield basking in the glories of South Yorkshire just outside the cet zone. Average temp 13.9C +4.6C above normal. Rainfall 10.2mm 17.7% of average.

Whisper it quietly, but the output is looking consistently promising for Tour 2...

Sunny Sheffield just outside the cet zone now at 14.1C +4.9C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

Sunny Edmonton is 12.5c to the 8th..which is +1.5c above normal..interestingly max temps have been 4.5c above normal and minimums 1.9c below normal.

I'm a driver, Ed. Will be good to see you again! I think it's Paul M and Rich on T2 as well. I'm booked on a one stopper via Atlanta the day before. £417 return, bargain.