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Surprised how flat it is in here considering the great bank holiday weekend weather that's on the way, at least for england and wales..tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks an absolute peach in the reliable timeframe..looking forward to another early taste of summer!

Interestingly April was an above average month in terms of temperature overall. That said a lot of the cooler spells during that month also came with a lot of cloud so when we saw temperatres of 6/7C by day the night time temperatures were not really any lower than this, then add a couple of very warm days and we got an overall above average month (skew likely by well above average minima). So after some more settled and warmer weather this weekend it looks like we will see a battle develop between a rdige building to our east and a trough trying to push eastwards through the UK. A set up like this to me usually points to towards temperatures being on the warm side of average as cooler air from the north west really struggles to push towards us, you can also see the real possibility of developing drier and potential very warm weather if that ridge gains more influence on our weather.

Don't forget the coldest March day on record as well. As much as I'd like a repeat of 1976, I'd be happy if we managed to even scrape average sunshine this summer. If the year ends average it'll be a miracle.

Bright breezy sunny this morningand currently 15c .The cows have smiles on their faces as they lie in the sun ,even the grumpy old farmer had a smile on his face as he went round them this morning, got the timing spot on for putting them out.

1) Hottest April day for 70 years 2) Hottest London marathon on record 3) Models showing possibility of hottest ever May Day bank holiday..... ECM for 07/05/2018 UKMO for 07/05/2018 Am I sensing a trend here, or is it wishful thinking? Could even more temperature records be broken this summer? Maybe we could even coin a name for this phenomenon - something like 'world heating' perhaps. Or is there already a name for it?

Yes Frosty, amazing how people will sometimes ignore what's under their nose and instead focus on unsettled weather in FI. This was the reason for my previous post expressing frustration at certain posters for emphasising 'cold and wet' conditions for the next week. This can be misleading for new members who may have no idea there is a lovely warm spell coming this weekend. Low to mid 20s quite widely on Monday which looks to be the pick of the days for most. From then on it depends whether you believe the ECM or GFS as to the scale of any breakdown. The GFS continues to back a more unsettled solution (it has backed down somewhat from a couple of days ago though) while the ECM suggests a rebuild of high pressure in FI.

On the basis of the weekends forecasts we have put the cattle out this evening in spite of a dull windy day with odd showers and a maximum of 11c which still felt cool. The dung is nearly over their troughs so they have more space outside. They will still be getting silage and minerals to augment the slow growing grass. Still masses of snow drifts on the hills to the NW of the Firth and the grass in the fields has the purple tipping resulting from the cold frosty nights of the past week .In fact the last sown field of barley has still not emerged since it has been colder since it was sown 10 days ago.

Today a west/east split south of the Scottish border In the west a dying front is lingering so tending to cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle/ rain and some low cloud around the coasts. To the east more in the way of sunshine although some cloud may encroach during the day. N. Ireland cloudy with some drizzle maybe brighter later whilst the west of Scotland will probably get the worst of the rain. But the north east will be quite warm. I suspect these temps may be under cooked for Aberdeenshire as the METO are suggesting 20C. So on to the bank Holiday. There is a grave danger of repetition here so will try to keep this brief. Overall about as good as would could expect but there is still very much a NW/SW drift with the evolving analysis with the clearer skies and warmer temps in the south and east compared to the north west where patchy rain and drizzle may linger, and to some extent the west which could well see more cloud. But overall not bad. Saturday The active front lying just west of the Western Isles Sunday The front still lingering over north west Scotland as the wave on it moves north east. The rest of the Uk in the ridge stretching from the high in the north east. Monday Some changes are afoot by now with another upper trough ejected from the Canadian/Greenland trough complex and by midday the surface low associated with this and associated fronts are tracking east in mid Atlantic whilst at the same time the old front is lingering over Scotland. It has been noted on previous anomaly charts that westerly upper flow will tend to back rather abruptly in the vicinity of the UK courtesy of the block to the east and thus systems tracking east will tend to do the same and turn north east and this appears to be the case on Tuesday with out Atlantic low, albeit the fronts do affect the WN/W of the UK illustrating a clear case of the split.

Really nice evening now. Clearest I’ve seen it over the water for a while, although I haven’t been down there much lately

Silence re the 12s, let's put that right. Well it looks like the bank holiday heat will give way to less settled conditions for a while, but what next, a look at T240: ECM bullish about another warm settled spell: Maybe thunder chance in the south on this one. GEM: Maybe the high a little too east but I think the important thing is the amplified pattern. GFS: This one looking less settled. So the picture continues: warm periods, less settled periods, but no really nasty weather. All good and power to build. Edit, charts still won't enlarge when clicked on after software update, irritating, hope you can read them anyway.

As I mentioned yesterday, I'm very interested in the potential for real summery weather in June, with the models, and Met Office update suggesting warm spells interspersed with unsettled spells in May - hot weather with thundery outbreaks looks a natural evolution of this pattern if the average jet stream position moves north. So I'm looking for model evidence of this, and as it's beyond the main models, the CFS into June is relevant. So I'm keeping my eye on this, looking at evidence of this sort of weather, not at any particular date, that can't be predicted this far out, but is the model showing this at any point in the next month or so. Here from the 9 month 6z for the beginning of June: Will provide updates on this if there's interest, as my expectations for summer are very much on the up as things stand.

I'd take a cooler May (say 17c average highs) if it meant that sunshine was 50 hours above average.

It's also been one of coldest April's too overall, I don't think I've ever had heating on as much for time of year. I know we had that mini heatwave but it was very short lived.

I can see your cloud.

Hope we get the 18c and sun forecasted by the Met Office for Monday, dont think we've had anymore than 3 days over 15c, been a very poor spring imby.

First 5 days of May 1990 saw temps hit 26c everyday somewhere in the UK but it cooled a bit for the Bank Holiday Monday which like this year was on the 7th so its not impossible for warmth around the Bank Holiday w/e.The models are coming on leaps and bounds having so far this year shown early, two cold spells,one heatwave and im sure this weekend will be another correct outcome

Some chilly daytime maxes for third week of May on the GFS 12z it was a cold outlier from mid-month with maxes in places dropping to about 7C below average.

Whether this week will be sunny enough to help us have our first sunny (or average) May since 2011 is yet to be seen, but sun hours and temps take a huge hit in the 2nd week, well below average. Long term average sunshine for May is 198.5 hours. May 2017: 164.8 hours May 2016: 192.7 hours May 2015: 189.0 hours May 2014: 178.8 hours May 2013: 163.3 hours May 2012: 166.6 hours May 2011: 218.0 hours

Cracking day yesterday cracking day today.. Absolutely stunning evening for late spring. Summer is still 4 weeks away yet people! Anything now in my eyes is early bonus before the "real heat" chance begins and we hunt the 30+ days... But we are talking about the now and it's pretty good for the start of May if you ask me! 3-4 days ahead of very warm sunshine and clear skies.. For most.. We must remember that this time of year and more so this year thanks to a cooler winter the sea is still cold so immediate coasts much cooler and misty/foggy

Moving back the other way now, clear skies ahoy!

Sunspot number: 0 Spotless Days Current Stretch: 6 days 2018 total: 73 days (59%) The Radio Sun 10.7 cm flux: 67 sfu

Grand day after a damp start ,can chill a bit now after sorting a big contract out ,beer o clock

The kids are off and the wife is asking where should we go on Monday?

Monkey is actually quite nice,had it in Guatemala. Tastes a bit like rabbit. Clouded over here in SW London now. 18c. Not a bad day,not brilliant either.

London is forecast to have just over 45 hours of sunshine from Saturday to Monday that in its self might be close to a record for the early May bank holiday weekend

I meant emojis, sorry. I'm old. Thicker cloud now.

It's the first cloudy day since (probably) October that has felt warm!

Same here, but it has clouded over a wee bit now, though...According to BBC Look East, it'll be at or above (by day) 18C for the whole of next week. With mostly unbroken sunshine, too!

lovely day here.

Lock up your goats, lassie's about!

Sunny here and peasantly warm, so we are having a bbq this evening and and and are on the menu, (joking about the monkey )

9.3 to the 3rd 0.3 below the 61 to 90 average 1.2 below the 81 to 10 average ______________________________________ Current high this month 9.3 to the 2nd & 3rd

he 0900 UTC geostationary

Done... I think.

Looks a certainty to me SS. I'd guess we will see a 26c somewhere. Low pressure doesn't look like it will barrel across the country either, perhaps getting stuck out west and veering to the north instead.

Monday could be record-breaking for the right reasons 23.7c or higher will make it the hottest May day bank holiday on record ?️

This above There is a grave danger of repetition here so will try to keep this brief. Overall about as good as would could expect but there is still very much a NW/SW drift with the evolving analysis Should of course read There is a grave danger of repetition here so will try to keep this brief. Overall about as good as would could expect but there is still very much a NW/SE drift with the evolving analysis Won't be long now knocker Onwards and upwards the 0600 geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

Disgusting year so far, already going to be one of the cloudiest years on record after just 4 months. Spring has been exceptionally wet and will be the 2nd cloudiest on record unless May records 170 hours of sun at least (which it won't).

Not current model related, but synoptics and conditions in early-mid June are rarely a barometer for similar likely weather through rest of the summer, it usually takes until after the solstice before we see the northern hemisphere settle into its base summer state.. the position of the jetstream in late June is the best barometer, it can swing wildly through June as the atlantic awakens from its spring sleep. Indeed now until mid June typically sees the atlantic in its quietest annual state, and it is very common to see the type of synoptics currently on offer, with diffluent weak meandering jet struggling against building ridge development. Its more unusual to see a very active jet with the atlantic barrelling in - but this becomes much more normal through second half of summer, its why I call the northern summer at least May-July (i.e. most settled sunniest period of the year, not necessarily warmest, or driest which goes more to April-June period ,but nearly as dry as then) - a warm summer doesn't make a good summer, if it is wet and dull as well, or even just average on the rainfall sunshine stakes.

Well at least we've got a nice bank holiday weekend coming up. Temperatures in low 20's and hopefully some decent sunny spells. Picnic lunch lined up for Sunday afternoon, hope the forecast holds true.

I can't believe there is still such a chill in the air for this time of year!! Fed up of feeling cold, especially as it's May!! I can stand the cold in winter... But this is ridiculous. Come on sun, get that blowtorch fired up. It's about time we had a proper long spell of warmer, brighter weather!!

A few hazy spells of sunshine but generally cloudy today with light winds and a maximum temperature of 15C. Was a dry day until now - steady rain at moment which is wetting everything including the newly painted fence (humph, so much for the Met Office forecast of "a little drizzle over the hills"). Wildlife highlight of the day was a Red Kite flying overhead, always a pleasant sight.

Thank you Karyo for your helpful reply.

06z GFS firming up on the background signals from the EC Weeklies along with other factors promoting a significant US Trough coming through from the 14-18th May. This was the active 2nd half of Tour 1 I was talking about. Cant wait to get the 3 cars set up over the weekend so they are all ready for everyone on Tour 1

Spotless again. 5 consecutive days, 72 for 2018 The solar flux dropped to 67

Will you ever stop moaning?

Absolutely awful . It always seems to be those poor communities which suffer the greatest from these storms . As if life isn’t hard enough they often have to contend with these weather extremes .

We are seeing , I believe, the Pacific side of the Arctic basin undergoing the change our side went through in the noughties. This leads to early warming of the waters entering the basin through the Bering Straights and so provides 'hostile coditions' on the Pacific side of Beaufort come bottom melt end of the melt season? In its turn this allows for the fragmentation of the central basin ice and its transport under wind/current forcings. The other thing to note is that we are now into May and we are still under a HP dominated Basin . We have not seen this since 2012 and should it persist through May will lead to a great deal of melt momentum for the rest of the season. The lack of Freezing Degree Days (FDD's) over the weinter just gone means the ice is less resilient to melt out than in a 'normal year' that has seen frequent deep cold over the ice. The perfect melt storm also has the HP dominance element to it along with low pressures positioned to feed ice into Fram. We have seen central basin ice slowly migrate toward Svalbard but ,as yet, no constant forcing there. should it develop then the 'lift offf' of ice along the Northern shore of Greenland back in Feb will make transport to Fram 'smoother' with no deep ,shore fast ice, to hinder its progress along that section of coast.