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I am sure that 1976 was a year with no spring....... just saying 30th March 30th April 30th May Flaming JUNE It did get a tad warmer thereafter

To keep coldies happy I'll post this mornings ICON which has flipped back to the colder option GEM also shows some colder air later next week for the south this could ease by Saturday (but still below average )whereas further north it holds on longer

With Easter being over a week away i wouldn't dismiss a return of wintry weather somewhere over the UK just yet. The trough disruption across our latitude for next week means a small movement north or south will shift the boundary of cold and mild and at this stage the northern third at least looks to be still in the game as they say. The main 3 at t144hrs show agreement is still to be reached. If we get a continental draw ahead of any fronts then snow can fall with quite modest uppers. The cold pool just to our ne is quite impressive this late and I would certainly give it a few days yet as the pattern wouldn't need much adjustment to bring that cold further south.

The latest ECMWF weekly forecasts show ongoing below average temperatures over the next 4 weeks (26th March - 22nd April): https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

The Gem 12z has a happy ending..for coldies!!❄❄

Whilst it remains so complex, i’ve not bothered to be analysing in any depth. Pretty well pointless at the moment. It will be really cold somewhere in the uk and it will snow somewhere in the uk in the run up to Easter (away from elevation). that’s about it at the moment .

ECM ensembles for T144: Very complicated over the UK. The link-up between the small low to the east and the growing low to the west represents the dividing line between "Beast 3" and something warmer to the south. As one would expect, the ensembles play around with positioning and intensity of these lows a lot. Every possibility imaginable is out there: lows north, lows south, low to the west stays shallow, low to the west enlarges (brining milder air eventually to the south), or the two lows merge together over the UK. This means certainty over the ECM op is not yet there. While it does have enough support from the ensembles to not be an outlier (and indeed many members go much further in terms of depths of cold), it's a very tight thing between cold south, cold north, or even no cold at all. We may need to get to T96 on this before we can get reasonable confidence on some sort of "beast" for some parts. If that happens, probably T24 to see exactly where the boundary between cold/mild will be!! But one thing's for sure - the deep cold is most definitely going to be available if the wind swings east.

Potential for a good dump of snow over the south on Good Friday (ICON 0z) We need a correction S/SE from the other models and some more trough disruption to bring everybody into the game. Not an unexpected scenario in the current regime !

Well some great charts again this afternoon/evening and i am quiet gobsmacked by the latest gfs 18z and from 192 the midlands north could get quiet a good dumping of snow,not being IMBY and i would like the rest of us to join in too, then in FL,this for the 7th April,my goodness the latest cpc anomoly 8-14 day chart from NOAA is an upgrade from last nights,blocked!,blocked!,blocked! shift that latest AO tanking too. this could be another memorable spell of cold if the charts prove right and i would like a good summer with storms afterwoods please

Despite some models showing hardly anything cold further south next week..I've just seen a forecast showing cold air winning and a risk of heavy snow across most of southern uk through the second half of next week!..let the games begin!❄❄❄❄❄

Just looking at the Gem 12z in more detail, really turning wintry across the north / north east during next midweek with rain turning to snow and then the colder air spreading south to the rest of the uk with ppn turning more wintry and frosts / ice becoming more widespread..very cold nationwide early april!

Morning all Plenty of interest in the model output yesterday with signs of colder air as early as next Wednesday from both GFS 06Z OP and ECM 12Z. The scenario and evolutions were and remain complex with, to be honest, a lot needing to go right for the coldest air to be drawn through the British Isles so while the north was likely to see colder conditions for the south it was much less certain. Anyway, this morning's medium term analysis takes us up to and including Sunday April 2nd or Easter Day if you prefer: Kicking off as always with ECM 00Z at T+240: A complex trough covers north west Europe and the British isles stretching from the Canaries through southern Britain to Scandinavia. This sits between weak heights over the central Mediterranean and to the NW of the British Isles. Uppers are by this time negative across the British isles with a light NNE'ly flow for most parts. Rain or showers for southern parts with snow likely for hills to the north and perhaps to lower ground as well. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Not too dissimilar to yesterday's run if memory serves. LP over northern France and heights to the NW and NE leave the British Isles in an ESE'ly flow. The coldest air is to the north while the south is in milder air by this time. However, it's likely to be wet in the south with possibly heavy rain and showers while the north sees drier conditions. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Far and away the most progressive of the morning output. While the other models keep the trough in situ, GFS OP is clearing it off to the east leaving the British Isles in a slack but chilly NE'ly air flow. It's worth noting GFS didn't sink the trough to the south or south west but kept it close to or over the British Isles so plenty of rain in the run up and start to Easter. With uppers widely from -4 to -8 if not lower, this would be a cold chart but increasingly settled especially in the west with fine weather by day but a likelihood of some sharp night frosts. Further into FI and heights build to the north of the British isles re-establishing an E'ly flow across the south before at the very end of FI retrogression hints at a more NE'ly flow. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: It looks as though the Atlantic is returning with new LP coming from the west and no mid-Atlantic build of heights. The British Isles is under a weak ridge so a fine and warmer day for most. Further into FI and a real hint of spring with pressure building from the south and the jet heading back north so a steady improvement for all. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 I have to say the Control looks on its own with little support, Most Members keep the LP close to or just east of the British Isles with pressure building either in mid Atlantic or SE from Greenland to maintain a N'ly or E'ly component to the wind flow. It will be interesting to see if the Control has picked up a new signal or is a classic GFS "default" to Atlantic westerlies. In conclusion, those hoping for a sunny and warm Easter look right out of luck this morning. ECM and especially GEM keep it unsettled and often wet and especially so for southern areas. Head to the Hebrides if you want to stay drier if not warmer seems the message. GFS is its usual progressive self and has moved the whole trough to the east by Easter Day. That leaves a residual cold air mass over the British Isles but the OP and Control go in very different directions. The OP is an excellent run for cold fans but drier for us all as heights build to the north while Control brings back the Atlantic and eventually ushers in spring or something spring like. I have to say Control looks on its own for now while the OP is perhaps at the other end of the spectrum. Whether we can or will see renewed or continued Northern Blocking into April seems the big question this morning.

Whilst ec disagrees with the other models and the other models disagree with themselves, the modelling continues to be of restricted assistance re the Easter period and indeed even the middle part of next week! some part of the ec run will not be correct -Southern coldies hoping that it’s the low digging too far sw and not getting east at a low enough latitude to continue CAA. anyway, whilst the direction of travel in the 5/10 day period remains elusive re surface detail, the ec 46 continues to show that spring temps remain unlikely throughout Europe in April - below average out to spring bank holiday on that model. with large parts of the states also showing similar, perhaps 2018 will be remembered as the year without a spring..........

Morning all, Up early , with a cuppa and a Belgian chocolate cereal bar ( keeping the talk of nutty bars, going ). Agree with JennyJane, yesterday, still felt cold ( keeping it weather related!! ) and despite heating being on, couldn't get warm, in our lounge. Probably due to builder ( doing bathroom, adaptation ), unavoidably, in and out of the front door, fetching tools and materials, from his van. Very noisy yesterday, lots of drilling and banging, with a couple of "sparkies" connecting up electrics, for shower unit. Colette and I have chosen tiles and flooring, for Wet Room now, which should be completed, in just over a week. Managing " bathroom arrangements" at night, ok. Does remind me of those "dark days", when I first came out of hospital, 2 years ago. Need to get some more of those cardboard bottles, today, @ 65p a throw, this toileting business, isn't cheap!! Still trying to keep it "weather related", most overnight model runs, paint an unsettled. coldish picture, as we head towards, Easter weekend. With height rises to our W and NW and trough diving SE, across UK. Can us "coldies", squeeze out a white "Good Friday" or Easter weekend? One last hurrah, perhaps?? Hope you all enjoy, your day. Regards, Tom.

This was the end of the sunset that kept ducking in and out of my mirrors this eveing as I got towards home. Eventually I stopped and got the camera out, possible a minute or few on the late side.

As we approach April, the models perhaps not very surprisingly showing the first sustained northerly of the year - April and May are renowned for them. Strong heights to the NW, locked in trough digging into Europe. What is perhaps more surprising is the depth of cold shown by the models still lurking to the north, every chance low level snowfall, and severe frosts over easter - if the ECM comes off. Very cold charts shown this evening and this is a recurring trend now..

Fortunately, the ever-reliable FIM rides to the rescue of cold fans as it did in previous cold snaps when some of the so-called "big" models wobbled. The LP drifts NE and fills leaving the British Isles under an increasingly cold NE'ly flow by Easter Monday. This may be more an issue of timing than trend - a delay of 24-48 hours as the LP sits to the SW and then shifts NE to align with the main SCEuro trough.

Unlike ECM JMA hasn't backed down yet...

GFS flailing around - looking miles off the Euros today- Complicated set up but ECM \ UKMO blend always favoured-

The Gfs 18z shows a lot of snow in the north next week and extending further south later in the Easter holiday so cold air wins!

Actually a coming together of the models at T144 with that low west of Ireland. It looks hard for the south to go particularly cold on that, and in fact if that low stalls somewhat then temperatures might be closer to the teens on the south coast by the Easter weekend. For the north, it would depend on how much cold jumped over the North Sea before the SW low blows up. A frontal snow event still quite possible if enough cold gets in ahead of any fronts moving up from the south. But I don't think we're done with the threat of cold in the south after that. At T216, we have what appears a west-based -NAO, but I've noted over the years how these often drift east as T0 gets closer: And with what I've seen from the ensembles recently, I think the first 10 days of April look very vulnerable to a cold northerly blast - and look at all the cold still up there:

As we await the ECM. It is interesting to note that all the outputs are really just small geographical variations (in global terms) on the same theme.Namely a cold air/milder air boundary somewhere across the uk during the easter weekend. Will the low to the southwest blow up as much as the gfs suggests? We now that it has a bias for overblowing areas of low pressure. So lots to ponder. Of course the small variations in global terms make a massive difference as to who gets snow on our small island. Still way too early to call it yet.

I think there was an volcanic eruption in peckham

If you press the @ key and immediately start typing the name of the character you want to flame/quote/whatever, the message board software starts to guess who it is... it's easier than it sounds, just try it @ciel then you click on the chap/chappess and away you go. (I have to be one of the world's worst explainers!)

Hill snow only next week looks to be the current prognosis, at least until we get to unreliable la-la land next weekend. Has anyone else noticed the massive spike in Snowdrop flowering this year? I've never seen so many, in so many places I don't recall seeing them, and flowering for so long.

So what is this cooling down term mean? It's not got warm yet, and looking at the models this morning ,significant cold at some place over the Easter period but as to exactly where and when people will see more of the white stuff still remains a long way off in forecasting terms

My goodness!!!,take two i give you the control

As with most trilogies, the final installment is always filled with more twists and turns than a ball of belly fluff. Unfortunately as we seem to be leaving the Twilight zone behind, it looks like we are back to business as usual with lots of nail biting ahead over the weekend. Give me a good old easterly which appears to have much smoother run ins, barring that failed one we don't discuss anymore. One thing to take away from the beauty that is the beast is that in future, we can possibly expect them to correct North and also hit earlier than expected. Something to remember for 2049 maybe, unless we truly are entering a Maunder-like period. One thing is for certain, I won't be moaning about them being dry and useless as long as I live. This Winter has been my most memorable possibly due to my location compared to where I lived in the eighties. I do hope we can squeeze one last hurrah in April to take us to having 6 continuous months of snow falling. The latest 18z certainly gives everyone a chance from the GFS charts ❄❄

Nathan Rao I think it was the BBC forecast at 10? It mentioned that the ECM was preferred with a potentially of snowier weather and it was Darren Bett haha!

That’s incorrect.The last two cold spells the models upgraded the cold as it got into the reliable timeframe,maybe the same will happen this time ,when the cold spell gets into the reliable timeframe,which it isn’t yet. Wouldnt take much of a change in current pattern to bring bitterly cold air over all the U.K.,much to the annoyance of the mild rampers in the forum

For all the coldies in the north (especially scotland) the Ecm 12z shows winter returning next week with snow, ice and frosts..and further south, it's not game over, this is a complex set-up and a few minor tweaks here and there could see a nationwide cold spell later next week including easter!❄❄❄

Is that where the spring came from, with the glow in the dark water.

Yes, a less cold ICON with the problematic low to the southwest. The gfs up to 165 hours is an improvement for the north and it has a nice Atlantic block but sadly the low gets anchored to the southwest so central and southern areas just get rain. The UKMO has the cold licking the east at 144 hours and like the gfs it has a nice Atlantic block but still with that horrible low to the southwest.

@Hairy Celt Hurrah! Ta, HC

I’ve just figured out what’s happening ? My rain gauge has obviously decided to spring back to life, it’s in the back of my car, so when I’ve rocked up on my drive and the kids have moved it, BINGO Rain!! ? on the plus side I know it’s working again

While of course anything is still possible, I had a look at the temperature ensemble for the ECM and I thought it would take a brave person to forecast the deep cold getting south of the Midlands on that:

Afternoon peeps...Say hello to my friend?

Well the models have killed off the prospects of easter snow, so now it's time to look for summer sun, last i heard he was trolling the MOD thread

1976. The endless Summer and, endless drought!

As like last night the ECM London op is on the cold side of the mean later next week it then goes on the warm side into April

I really like the Ecm 00z since it fast tracks the cold next week whereas the Gfs delays it considerably..conclusion..more runs needed!

You can have a "trend" after 8 days though, but this is only the weather so i don't understand why people get so animated or upset over it.

Ha ha nearly spit my tea out laughing

The ecm continues to disagree with GFS on the evolution of the upper pattern between T96 and 120 and in particular the orientation and position of the Atlantic trough and Greenland/Iceland high cell. Thus the ecm interpretation allows the European trough/cold conduit further west and of course at the same time alters the surface analysis in the eastern Atlantic.Thus at T120 it has a front straddling the middle of the country dividing the cold air to the north and warmer further south with a fair amount of snow in northern England. Obviously the detail of all of this is a long way from being decided

And T168 looks good too for cold

At 00 the surface analysis was quite complex with a series of fronts traversing the UK with a low 992mb over south west Ireland. Further to the WSW of Cornwall there is a wave that is about to rapidly develop. The fronts duly clears most of the country by now whilst the low over Ireland tracks north east and as mentioned the wave to the west is intensifying rapidly as it moves east/south east to skirt Cornwall by 1800 today So in a nutshell rain will quickly clear the east this morning whilst rain associated with the low will affect N. Ireland and Scotland clearing by the middle of the afternoon. At about this time rain and strong winds.associated with the developing low will impact the south west During the evening and overnight this rain will spread to south Wales and further east By this time clearer and colder weather is into N. Ireland and Scotland. The sequence Through Saturday the intense low to the south west tracks rapidly south east into the Mediterranean under the auspices of the jet whilst the other low continues it's journey away to the west of Norway. Essentially this leaves England and Wales in a slack gradient and mainly cloudy with light rain which is slow to clear and more concentrated in the south with brighter showery weather further north in a light westerly. Sunday is a fairly quiet day of sunshine and showers as the Azores ridges north east but at this point I think it's worth a look at the bigger picture, particularly upstream where the ridge in eastern North America is starting to intensity and release a fragment of the vortex to track south east as a very influential upper trough. Monday starts off in similar vein to Sunday but the aforementioned upper trough has continued to track east, dare I mention two energy flows?, and the associated surface low and fronts associated with it are bringing rain and strong winds to western areas by 1200. By the time we get to 1200 Tuesday the importance of the upstream ridging becomes more evident as we now have a high cell over eastern Greenland, promoted by the Aleutian and the east N. American ridges, with the elongated vortex trough running south of it and phasing with the trough associated with the main vortex lobe over northern Russia. The latter is the conduit for the very cold air from the Pole so the ingress of the Atlantic trough east is critical to the advection of this colder air into Europe and in particular in the direction of the UK. This is of course according to this morning's GFS as we are all aware last night's ecm had a different interpretation of this key area. As can be seen in this version the surface fronts have swept though on Tuesday leaving the UK in a complex area of low pressure and quite windy with temps just a little below average. It does not take a huge adjustment to the upper pattern to change this surface analysis.

Yeah. Well hopefully the GFS changes for the better, if not we can only conclude there is no snow god afterall, that or you lied about doing the snow dance.Maybe you did it, but forgot to put the bra on your head, did you? Be honest. hehe.

10.5c at Leuchars this afternoon, although was breezy enough to take the edge off the temperature. Start of my Rob Roy Way walk looking okay weather wise at the weekend....will obviously have to keep an eye on what’s happening next week. Will try and keep you updated (phone signal permitting).

Always be yourself, and there I nothing wrong with being nuts. I have done that myself for 28 years. Not a lot of interest weather wise today. Just a lot of cloud and dry.