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March 20th- straight northerly, -10c uppers, nationwide snow and in other news...

Drip drip drip, the sound of retreat ! Still amazed at the snow we got .. and have added photos of the crazy drifts at the river Clyde

I just want to say: this really did happen (-: amazing things happen & chaos theory proves it.

Quite a change in this mornings UKMO, gone is the much deeper low which goes against the other models and overall it looks very messy across the board . The ECM drops its height rise to the nw and now is more interested in a rise to the ne. The GFS is more interested in higher pressure to the nw. For coldies at this time of year a northerly or ne is the better source of air unless the mini beast turns up! Some of the GEFS do show a more wintry set up with low pressure tracking quite south .If a height rise to the nw is the correct solution still issues with getting the pattern sufficiently se . Overall you can make a case for several things this morning , could be more white than wet later but equally the UK could be more on the wrong side of the jet with a milder flow from the south. So I think confused sums it up.

Snow event somewhere from this channel runner at D9 None of that powdery nonsense either!

Although there is a southerly tracking jet stream across the Atlantic, crossing the Azores, Iberia and on east into the Mediterranean, the flow is very zonal so there is little in the way of ridging in the mid to high latitudes to prevent slow-moving areas of low pressure wallowing around western and northern Britain, with little upper flow to move them until later in the week, which keeps a mild and showery flow across the UK. However, looks like some momentum gathering in the upper flow by the end week and through the weekend southern UK, which could see a deepening low over the Atlantic head towards or just south of the UK. 12z UKMO showing quite a deep low heading in towards the south on Sunday, 12z GFS has a deep low to the SW but it fills to become a weaker low across the south on Sunday – 00z EC had a similar idea to GFS Upstream there are signs from the models of anti-cyclonic wave breaking in the North Pacific, probably being driven by an east Asian mountain torque event, which results in amplifying the downstream trough south of Alaska which in turn develops a +PNA ridge. This more amplified flow feeding through to the N Atlantic next week, but because of the short wave-lengths, may favour an amplifying / slow-moving trough to the west of the UK initially – which is not ideal to get cold back south – but into low res 12z GFS does get the trough east with a cold Nly. And with absence of a TPV over Greenland or NE Canada, we could see blocking develop easily over the NW Atlantic – with help of expected amplification upstream

A very busy bird feeder today, cold brings out an appetite!

Well well.

Here are a couple of drifts just outside Dundee at Muirhead courtesy of S Finn. Any roads with fields to their East must have caught the drifts.

This is quite impressive; down near coldstream. There were some real monster drifts up Soutra; 2 m behemoths.

GFS is showing several marginal (but perhaps very heavy) snow events across central UK in the mid range. The ironic thing is that these have the potential to put down more disruptive, albeit brief, snow accumulations for some parts than the E'ly just gone.

Can't believe it's so quiet .Models want a amplified pattern .we might be cold within 10 days .

Nice to see some cold potential later on the Ecm 12z and Gfs 12z with winter returning, the Gfs FI cold snap looks pretty impressive with plenty of snow around..hopefully the models will keep coldies interested through the rest of march!

All my lovely snaw is melting. Rain and 1.7 C. Which is ok tae be honest, as I'm missing quite a few parcels which I need for... the snaw in La Plagne!

snow for my location on the 16th? could happen, but so could a sharknado. even chance of either i think...

I tried that once too, but I must have planted them the wrong way up...

Enjoyed the late snow. Not so much the wind chill. But it was impressive to behold. We now appear to be in a period of weather that does not interest me. Until we start hitting temps in the 18C plus range towards April, I prefer the snow and cold to wind and rain, like many on here. But when will we record an 18C? I would definitely be hoping to achieve this in March here in Coventry, but not sure this year.

Aye, you've got more rabbit than Sainsbury's!

Just wanted to say a huge thanks guys for the entertainment this winter. I don't post much as my forecasting skills consist of opening the window and seeing which way the clouds are moving but I love the fact that most of the crazy people on this site share the same dream against all odds of it ever coming true, until now!!! Outsiders just really don't get it. Anyway, I hope you all managed to get what you wanted and that it'll give you renewed enthusiasm for next winter. Love the photos by the way.

Ec 46 maintains low heights and low slp around nw Europe. Presumably the se euro heights won’t allow things to progress east to allow us to get onto the cold side in a sustained fashion. Of course with downwelling due, these patterns may need to be retrogressed from their current locales. As has been the mantra for a while now, little sign of spring save the odd day or so as the wind swings southerly ahead of the occasional depression taking a more northerly track or the Atlantic trough digs south to our west. The eps extended are still keen to have low heights and slp to our s/se so I wonder if we might see space for a wedge or flabby ridge to establish just to our north or northeast.

i like night time banging

oh no. can't beat a bit of banging.

It’s shuch fun getting to know ppl on this thread ... today what have we learnt... E17 is bashing his last lollipop stick , lassie had left his goat at home , Donna runs a hotel ( like all us mums ) ... ed likes a bit of spotted dick .... sorry if I miss anyone out this is just so far feel free to add

thunder. 30c and thunderstorms. <3

The quiet period after a cold spell eh? Even up to Friday we were doing 50+ pages a day or close too.. It just goes to show how many people at heart really do love snow! My attention now turns to 3 things, April showers (our first chance at a rumble of thunder or 2) Early warmth, usually by mid March And finally watching the heat slowly build to our south ready to tap into come late May early June.

Always the bearer of good news. Winter in Scotland and spring like temperatures in Southern England although doubt it’ll last. I really can’t see any chance of ‘warmth’ for the foreseeable. Atmosphere has been shaken like a snow globe...

Can you record the launch please

Hi peeps hope you all had a great day ?. Just leaving MK for my commute back to London, absolutely pouring with rain here. There is still some patches of snow left here that had piled up from last week. Anyway just wanted to say hi to you all shall speak soon take care for now. ????

Very heavy rain now after a showery afternoon and fine morning. I keep repositioning the carrot!

here we go again! Mind you I'd imagine that this is a channel type low scenerio with the northern part of the low being the cold bit? Impossible to pinpoint where the sweet spot will be, will be marginal could snow anywhere but elevation helps and it will be big wet flakes none of this powdery snow nonsense

Yes, the rain is not staying on the plain!

After walking the kids to school and nursery I'm staggered at the number of selfish b@st@tds who appear to have spent Sunday afternoon claiming back 'their' on street parking by simply dumping huge piles of snow onto the previously cleared pavements! Kids forced to walk on the roads in places because of these morons

Driven in to the Uni (Bath) this morning along the A36 and I am amazed at how big the drifts still are. On Brassknocker hill there is one point where only 1 car can go at a time as there is a huge drift still there. Amazing spell of weather for me - I loved the long run in - model run tension, including the mini wobble about 5 days out from the arrival of the easterly (as in -'it's all going south to France...'), and the beautiful days of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (sunny with the odd shower making it across. Then walking the dog on Wednesday night with the streamer just reaching us and watching very fine powder snow blowing in the wind at -5.9 deg C. Waking on Thursday to see snow already arrived and still snowing, deciding to work from home, before work actually closed at 1pm. Then the main event hitting, slowly at first, but gradually getting heavier during a 2 hour walk, and then just watching as it never stopped until 11 pm. Fantastic day Friday - temps below freezing all day, so no melting at all, no-one moving anywhere (if they had any sense). A little top up in the afternoon (not as much as some, but who's complaining?). A walk on Saturday through some superb snowdrifts on Cradle Hill (no ufo's were seen...). Scenes just like the 80's. And now its mostly gone, and spring on its way (hopefully!)

Just seen this - possible snow event on 16th March... in the SE.

Sweet peeps logging out now as I am nearly at Euston and will be getting the underground. Will hoppefully be back later take care for now all ????

Is it ? Is it really thou

Sure, free range castrated cockerels are the best, In other words Capons, they are extra big and juicy.

Spotted dick's okay?

I've never tried cocks - have you?

With three legs?

Maybe it was a rabbit all along, Lassie needs to go to Specsavers.

No tales of a three-legged rabbit, then?

this is the SE East Anglia general rabbit thread

Morning all As the recent cold spell fades into history or romanticised nostalgia, thoughts are turning among some on here to spring and a yearning for the first 20c day. Unfortunately, the weather isn't like a light switch and as I noted last week, the model output wasn't showing a quick path to spring-like temperatures as the battle between colder and warmer air-masses continues and with both the jet well to the south and cold air not that far away to the north and north-east, will there be more twists and turns to come this month ? This morning's mid-range analysis takes us to Thursday March 15th and starts as always with the ECM 00z OP at that time: An unsettled outlook. One LP has crossed the British Isles filling from SW to NE and is over Denmark but a new LP is in the southwest approaches with the main LP close to Iceland. A mild SSE'ly covers the British Isles in advance of frontal systems bringing rain slowly from the south west. Residual heights remain over Scandinavia. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: A shallow trough covers the British isles and extends from Scandinavia back into the Atlantic with the jet running to the south. LP centred in the North Sea is drawing in a slack but cold N'ly flow over the British Isles. A secondary shallow LP is approaching from the SW but might only affect southernmost counties and the Channel Islands. Pressure remains high over Greenland with a weak ridge SE. GFS 00Z OP at T+240: The first LP crossed the country from SW to NE over the weekend and is in the Norwegian Sea but a new area of LP is approaching and deepening from the SW and is to the south of Cornwall with strong winds on its western flank. Any drier periods in central areas will be erased by rain moving from the south and south west. The eye is drawn to a developing but weak mid-Atlantic ridge. However, further into FI it gets squeezed out and the jet seems to buckle back north as the Azores HP becomes more influential. GFS 06Z OP at T+234: The evolution is different with the Azores HP much more pronounced and ridging north as the LP moves away to the NNE. A light NW'ly airflow covers the British Isles at this time. Further into FI and a much more zonal evolution develops with the classic sine wave of ridges and troughs. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: A much colder evolution with a NE'ly flow over the British Isles and a more significant mid-Atlantic ridge than on the OP. Further into FI, the cold snap doesn't last but the jet remains well to the south allowing LP to cross the British Isles keeping the weather unsettled with temperatures often below average. GFS 06Z Control at T+240: The 06 GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Plenty of colder options in there to my eye. The exact position and orientation of the LP varies greatly but the possibility of a more N'ly airflow can't be excluded. I don't se much sign of settled HP at this time. To conclude, little has changed since last week. The extreme cold has gone but the transition to what many would regard as spring-like conditions is going to be very slow. Indeed, the immediate future looks very unsettled with plenty of rain in the coming weekend as a vigorous system moves up from the SW and a repeat performance next week is on the cards from GFS next week. Other models keep the trough over the British Isles so with an unsettled and often cold theme especially in the north. GFS further into FI tries to bring the jet back north allowing the warmer air-mass to encroach but there is also a signal for renewed Scandinavian blocking. At the moment this is all speculation - I can't see a ready route to spring warmth and indeed rain (and plenty of it) will be the theme for the next week to ten days.

Well I never! Its turned back to snow and trying to lie on cars etc. Temp back down to 1C.

Ok, who's sick of the white stuff now? Glad we didn't get any of that white sh*te, it's such a pain when you can't get anywhere! Apparently the large Co-op in Portree was completely out of fruit and veg yesterday, someone posted a pic on FB, but the wee co-op in the town centre had enough of most things! I did notice a distinct lack of bread on Friday, but the vultures had been in by then! I'm just off to make bread now to go with the home made soup. Yum! Bread makers are brill! ?

GEFS forecasts for the Zonal Mean Zonal Wind at 10hPa show the strat vortex with a limited recovery following the SSW, but always remaining weaker than the long term average. The vortex is now further weakening, trending back to negative (reversal) by the end of the forecast period. The chart from Hannah E. Attard shows the forecast at 65N and the longer term average (climatology) for final warming dates. Clearly we are well within the time-frame, suggesting the vortex looks to be in terminal decline for this season. The second chart from http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratospheric-forecast-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-10hpa-gefs/ at 60N shows the last 4 GEFS 0z runs with this morning's run (5th March) the most bullish about the zonal winds going negative again around 21st March. Looking at the forecasts for geopotential heights anomaly at 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa and comparing with this morning's GFS 500hPa forecast shows reasonable coupling between stratosphere and troposphere. This shows the main lobe of the strat vortex staying on the Siberia side and as Blue posted above resulting in an "extended prediction of sceuro trough". Not much changing over the forecast period to 12th March. T0 5th March - 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa. Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/nh_strat/nh_stanom.php 500hPa T180 12th March - 10hPa, 50hPa and 100hPa. 500hPa

Today and overnight. Scotland will be quite chilly with outbreaks of snow, sleet and rain depending on location and these will continue through to tomorrow morning. Further south not unpleasant with broken cloud and plenty of sunshine as the temps creep up but showery rain will move into the south west late in the morning and consolidate and move north during the day By morning this will have cleared southern England and Wales and thus much drier. The sat. image is for 0400. Much the same story for Tuesday with Wales and the south remaining dry with sunny spells whilst the north, N. Ireland and Scotland outbreaks of showery snow, sleet and rain will continue, the former restricted to high ground. Still quite a latitudinal temp variation. By midweek low pressure continues to be the controlling influence with the upper trough and associated surface lows dominating the Atlantic and points east. Ergo the unsettled weather with outbreaks of showery rain, perhaps thundery, will continue interspersed by sunny intervals and as the temps creep nearer average albeit still cold at night with ice and patchy fog in the north This scenario continues over Thursday and Friday with low pressure still dominating the eastern Atlantic with the two upstream energy flows coalescing in mid Atlantic. I notice the METO referred to this yesterday as a cyclonic block

Armadale is only 8 miles due North East of me, was definitely a large swathe of this area with snow to that depth or more, West Calder and Mid Calder seemed to get even more. Get the feeling it'll be a good couple of years before we something like that again, especially with how widespread the deep snow and drifts were.

This month's results Monthly Midlands Ice Age got it spot on 2.9c, while nn2013 and Duncan McAlister were each 0.1c out. Seasonal Results (and Yearly to date) All change with Norrance winning and snowray 2nd with stewfox in 3rd. Feb 2018 CET.pdf Feb 2018 CET.xlsx