Leaderboard

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and major private infrastructure will begin a daily briefing cycle as of tomorrow. To revisit previous post, latest MR output (MOG) resolving to further mute ‘breakdown’ scenario; with continental blocking signal reinforcing through well into March. Atlantic incursions are expected with southerly deflection; considerable potential for extensive and disruptive snowfall as these air masses interact. Short term, ECM:UKMO evolution favoured and considered likeliest; corresponds well with other products and illustrates fair consistency. Small ramp. Next week = mega. SB

Just had to talk to the wife for an entire hour!! Please don’t let that happen again ECM mean looked very good, here’s the graph, op on the cold side from D7 -10 Anyone got the UKMO D7?

Hi TEITS, i work for local government and more to the point work with the homeless in our local authority area. We do have an emergency contingency plan known as SWEP (Severe weather emergency plan). We are bringing this in to effect from 7pm this sunday where it will then be reviewed on a daily basis. So in addition to paying the street-homeless a visit offering food and hot beverages (daily soup run) we will be offering them emergency accommodation via the hostel system and safesleep at the salvation army. ?

i showed this chart to my Land Rover and a little bit of engine wee came out.

I have to say when I suggested at the start of the month that the Strat was setting us up for a great cold spell, I thought that the potential was good but never envisaged this good. Again enjoy!

Not to get too carried away with at this stage, but EPS has an implicit snow threat from the south in one weeks time. Similar in evolution to ICON. Little upper level steering at that stage, so any system likely to meander.....

WOW Just another Amazing run from the ECM this time. Deep cold, Bitter winds. Multiple snow chances. Iberian low. It has it all! My salt must have tripled in price!

An ode.... The charts they have shown from long, long away That the SSW would hold immense sway Some urged caution, some said doubt They said 'la la la, we're not listening, our faith is devout'. Their ideas they have shown with chart after chart Their belief, their knowledge, it came from the heart I always reckon, credit where credit's due So take it from me, an enormous 'thank you' I can't read the charts, they're blob after blob I rely on you all doing a fantastic job So the beasterly's coming, inching closer each day The temperature's dropping, the rain's gone away What wonders await? Well no one can say But I do know one thing, I'm polishing my sleigh Pondering starts, what can it be Surely it means '91, maybe '63? With charts such as these, manna from heaven Sure can mean just one thing, another'47 The cold, it's a coming, we all know that Wrap up warm folks and remember your hat Will we get an inversion or plenty of snow? Or that mythical beast, a channel low? Our dreams they've been busted many times in the past The cold came and it went, it just didn't last This time it is different, our boffins of gold Foresaw and predicted and then we were told Look up to the sky, high over the cloud Stratosphere it said 'yes' and it said it loud So when it comes, go out to play Sure check the charts but then step away Synoptics like these, well we know that they're rare Ski, skate, slip and slide, sledge without care Dear Mods I may be a tad off topic But charts such as these, by god, they're epic Please forgive me I beg, the rule, I don't mock it But such weather porn made this lass poetic

Nice perspective from WRF. Tomorrow's run likely to become a popular screensaver...

High resolution 00z NMM to Monday night (temp 850 hpa)

Christ. Had to actually talk to the missus. Wife: You have been glued to that phone lately, you looking at porn or something? Me: Yes, yes I am... Wife: You dirty b****** what exactly are you looking at? Me: The ECM 12z Wife: What? *snatches phone* Wife: FGS you are the only bloke in the world that would rather have a five knuckle shuffle over a poxy weather chart, than Mila Kunis Me: Well it would take an absolute 10/10 bird to get me away from the charts right now. Wife: Goodnight, enjoy the sofa. Me: Oh well, peace and quiet. Bring on the 18z’s Wife: W*****

Staring in utter disbelief at the ukmo 144 chart. Lump in throat,tears welling. Better feeling than Having my kids,I won't lie. If I have a drink tonight,I will at some point burst into tears? Overwhelmed or what,sh*t a brick.

Well since the dawn of the internet the UK snow nuts have chased the 510 Line to the UK 1987 was temporarily 496 DAM in Dover- ECM is close @144 @~ 504 DAM- It will be like a constant fan of mahoosive STELLA DENTRITES !!

As per comments on yesterday’s ECM.....it had it nailed. The cold is coming right AT US with disturbances in the flow bringing heavy snow. This is an extreme event and those that worried of it sinking too far south this and that....the theme has not changed only interruns, but the theme is.......major hit! And it will be a real ‘spell’....I do not want to read or hear ‘cold snap’ anywhere. Ukmo - really bitter with snow GFS - loads of snow and really cold ECM - bitter bitter cold with Glacier commencing snow backend GEM - different but bitter cold and lots and lots of snow Theme- incredible runs BFTP

I think we may need to add some new colours to the scale on these maps!

I shall say it now the UKMO is probably the best run I have seen since I joined this forum many years ago. Everything is perfect, the position and orientation of the high, strength of the E,ly flow, sheer depth of the cold pool to our E. On a different note I really hope our local councils take some action in helping the homeless next week.

I didn't believe the runs that showed the mild air getting north into the country by the end of next week. This is far more in line with what I would expect given the rare synoptics. Likely to be some very disruptive weather. Salt value gone up another notch.

Looks like another perfect synoptic evolution with the Iberian low moving NE giving an increased risk of snowfall to southern regions whilst driving snowbands in off the North Sea for more northern areas whilst keeping everywhere sub -10ºC 850s. I'll take that.

Absolutely incredible charts. On a serious note, I urge people to think of the people and animals who will find this a very difficult time. When you are stocking up at the supermarket buy some birdfood. We can all help out and enjoy the freezing weather at the same time.

I dont need to comment on the UKMO - all I can see is steam coming off the net weather servers - shes gonna blow captain!!! I thought the UKMO uppers won the ? of the day but its been pipped by the GEM The -20 line is inching closer

OMG! The UKMO is absolutely stunning , with a stronger cleaner flow than the GFS and the purple blob about to hit at T144 hrs. One of the greatest charts ever to grace this thread!

yesss UKMO IS textbook beasterly - Model allignment is great now - just need the ECM to complete the hatrick this morning-

The curvature & isolines on the IKON are such now that I believe we have lost the little bulge of higher pressure over southern scandi infact its probably as perfect a flow as could be- as a result I am looking for a slightly accelerated start to the cold (6-12 hrs )

This is the sort of synoptic I would be looking for around the t300 mark. That's around the time our second downwelling pulse should be making itself felt. Not what those of us hoping to be going to Cheltenham the following week will be wanting.

I think it's good to start giving more detail on next week's snow risk based on current model output and parameters.. When? - Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Where? - Anywhere. To what levels? - All Levels. Hopefully that narrows it down a bit.

Further to the above we have just been issued with our mountain temperature projections for next Tuesday morning & Wednesday, -23c at 2000m and -29c at 3000m, that's a incredible depth of cold air . The minimum in the sink hole of the Rauris valley under the Gross Glockner Massif where I will be could go as low as -27c ! If that's the case, will be the coldest temp I have witnessed andt would beat my experience spent in British Columbia. C

The uppers are misleading, fear not. Such is the extent of the surface cold it's snow for the majority. Deep snow at that. Wow.

just caught up with 30 odd pages of model posts....jeez!.....It's not often that I'm lost for words (just ask the wife) but blimey what a gobsmackingly ramptastic set of runs we've had the past 24 hours.....How many times have we ever been able to say that a 'beasterly' is locked in?.....Sounds good doesn't it?....lol....deep cold arriving at T96 and the ECM?....wow, blizzard machine with a channel(ish) low a bit further down the road.....Yes, for the latter, a pinch of salt is needed as it's still bordering on the edge of FI, but let's face it, with that much snow potentially, a thousand truck loads of salt still wouldn't melt it....lol...................................One thing though, it's very rare we get this kind of weather pattern occuring so let's all take time to savour it and not look for the end of it, otherwise the famous NetWeather winter quote will have to changed to "Get the cold in first, and the inevitable plank posting about a breakdown will follow".....lol In closing, I asked for an expert second opinion of this upcoming spell of weather, and the great news is that Olaf says ......

Clusters finally out but what's this! The numbers do not add up to 51!! Have ECM censored some of them for being too cold? Or too mild??? Anyway this is what we have at T168 3 insanely cold clusters and 1 cluster (the one with 9 runs) that sees the cold pool hitting the southeast but high pressure dominated for the NW. So the "spoiler" cluster of the morning isn't repeated on the clusters we can see tonight. But what of the missing clusters... EDIT: Just seen that the T156 is complete: And you can see that the missing cluster is the most ridge dominated for the UK, similar to cluster 2 this morning. But only 8 members in it - the numbers considerably less than this morning's similar cluster. The trend is towards a direct hit from the cold pool, not away from it.

Phwaor! UKMO 144 is a humdinger

Chart of my lifetime. The UKMO from 96 to 144 is simply Incredible. If anyone is wondering why the sudden upgrade, my boiler broke this morning so you can thank me for that.

ECM just as good as UKMO, if not better

Oh haaaaai We've been very liberal with the topic drift this eve, there's obviously a LOT of excitement in here tonight, can I just ask that before the pub run rolls and everyone goes bananas that general winter commentary/IMBY etc goes in the appropriate thread........ Ta!

Good morning, and what an exciting time for weather nerds awaits us as we head through next week. First up, a browse of the 00z EC London T2m ens shows the op goes sub-zero for the max on Thursday 1st March, so a very cold start to Spring in the Big Smoke. Notice also the op is on the mild side of the spread for Saturday 3rd March - when that low it shows drifting N from Biscay pulls in less cold air across SE UK. The models can often be too progressive in removing cold air, and next week the cold will be deep and well entrenched too over northern Europe including UK/Ireland, so not sure I buy the quick removal of cold from the south, particularly as the upper flow looks weaker further north over Europe too, with the jet displaced over SW Europe. Looking at snowfall potential next week, can't really be specific and pinpoint anywhere that will see most snow, other than generally across eastern coastal counties. There is a broad consensus between GFS and EC for shower distribution early next week, albeit can't go into too much detail, so don't take ppn charts below literally. Using the 00z EC, it looks like Monday will see snow showers towards eastern coasts, perhaps most frequent north of E Anglia, flurries possible further south too. Tuesday looks like the beginning of perhaps more widespread heavy snow showers and/or more organised areas of snow moving in from ENE and penetrating well inland, EC op runs a disturbance SW from NE England down toward Wales and the SW. GFS doesn't have this feature as such, but still piles in the snow showers towards eastern areas. Rest of the week really not worth going into detail, suffice to say plenty of snow showers towards eastern areas, perhaps further troughs getting these snow showers further inland at times. EC teases us with the low moving up from western France on Friday, associated fronts would bring heavy snow, to southern and central areas, but low confidence on this, lows could stay over France and snow confined to far south. One final note, it will feel perishing in the wind by the middle of the week

Oh my, look at this for a graph!! THE BEST THIS WINTER BY A COUNTRY MILE Look at the mean, sub zero 2mT, rarer than rocking horse ****

Thankfully Paul just upgraded the server power source: What a stonking mean chart!

A few milder uppers before the cold piles in.

Borderline model related (sorry) but very much related to the amount of snow we can expect from showers (our own version of lake effect snow). If you are worried about snow showers from the East... The German Met Office is expecting >50cm from "lake effect" snow in NE Germany caused by showers kicking off over the Baltic Sea. For reference - the water temp there is about 2 degrees whereas the North Sea to our East is about 6-7 degrees. So extremely good conditions for convective precip.

Significant chance of serious disruption now in place. I wonder how long the media forecasts will stick to "very cold - but snow amounts and location uncertain." They are correct in the strict accuracy of the statement, but are being slightly coy in withholding the truth of the situation. Convective shower activity is going to be extensive such will be the instability over the North Sea from Monday onwards, and small features are certain to crop up. And then we have cross model agreement for significant snowfall next week on Thursday. ECM = heavy snow for the south GFS = heavy snow for the south GEM = heavy snow for the south (slight easterly bias) UKMO looks as though the next frame for Thursday would be heavy snow for the south ICO = heavy snow for the south (slight westerly bias) EPS would agree as would GEFS As this is still a week away there is obviously room for movement, but in reality this is remarkable consistency and fits hand in glove with impact of SSW and ongoing reversal, though by Thursday at 10hpa this will have changed and we will slowly recover our westerly shape in the strat. Not that this will impact significantly on the troposphere within the next 2 weeks... I think our roadmap is becoming clear. Significant shower activity on the near horizon and a full on SW to NE event mid to late week. Warmer air from a moderately well defined system at around 975mb bumping in to the very severe cold in place is going to set off the mother of all blizzards for somewhere.... probably France now I've posted this!!

This now at only T96 on GFS 18z

Turned on the computer and thought, oh no there's only 297 online, must have gone pete tong but what we have is cross model upgrades with a nationwide freeze and enough snow to bring the uk to standstill!!..this is going to be so much fun.!

Here she comes...

192 Reload from the north with an even bigger cold pool lol you couldnt make it up !!

ECM 168 . You dirty little sod . Bloody incredible ?

This place is worse than a catwalk in Milan for trends ! Yesterday the TREND was the cold pool was heading south to Tunisia , today’s TREND is Europe is going into the tropics at day 10 meanwhile the real trend is a cold lovers paradise ! I despair at times I really do !

Blimey, 18z predicting continuous snowfall for many from Thursday evening through Friday week away as a low moving up over France decides to slowly track NW into the UK

So, just on the last 3 pages alone that's 32 posts that have had to be removed for being off-topic. That's despite three warnings from the team asking nicely for people to think before they post. This thread is very busy and people are understandably very excited, but please do us (and everyone) a favour and stick to the models! Thanks

We're now down to T120 on charts like this: Running out of adjectives - don't think I've used PHENOMENAL!! yet For a complete newbie who's just found us today, this chart basically shows Russian winter air heading straight for us - and a lot of it. Get your blinking thermals sorted now and fast!

can we just not enjoy this maybe historic cold spell and not worry when the breakdown is going to happen,which it will eventually anyway

The EC EPS mean 850hPa chart @ 168hrs is something exceptional