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So I have 20 mins spare to try & tap as fast as possible- I think theres probably a lot of people out there really scratching their heads on this one trying to make head / tails of whats going on- We have for some time known about the warming & the approx date where it bottomed out- within that though what the response would be from the troposhere - I do subscribe to background signals leading up to & supporting the warming - however post warming I believe whatever the background state whether that be neutral or nina based that signal in itself would be totally neutralised against the reverse zonal flow that develops as a result- So for once things are stacked towards colder blocking synoptics & within that more significanltly is reduced easterly movement of the jet - Now the warming has landed we are now at the business end of the evolution- & thats still very much up for grabs in the models - In terms of loose general trends the models show 2 distinct transitional times 1) around 96-144 With a high building NE out of the azores 2) High pressure in situ 'somewhere' close to NW europe retrograding & 'expanding' Northwards allowing for a larger parcel of Cold air to cascade underneath it. All models have diagreements on how evolution 1 works which then net impacts the exact location of the retrograde high ( or in the ECM Op no retrograde )- To trigger or not? Before we decide what we believe from the models we should recognise that the SSW of this magnitude & its influence are rarely modelled- maybe once a decade & so each model is going to respond differently depending on its resolution & if its a 'high' top model - Whatever the case is though- it clear the form book for whether a model is usually great or average isnt to be taken as gospel for this scenario- So the SSW has been a bit of a leveller there- In my mind We then try to break down what models could be correct / wrong with the shortwave trigger & with such a 50/50 split you can only rely on historic performance in that the GFS doesnt do well with energy moving south / South east - It always likes to go North East. Based on that & the fact that consistency wise GEM / IKON & somewhat the UKMO have generally been on that page then I am calling the GFS wrong & ECM- with a note that the middle ground could be the landing zone - which is the NW atlantic being slightly further East like ECM - but not to go as far as to say that the trigger shortwave & easterlies would start to encroach the UK at day 6-7... So my shout would be a watered down easterly flow initially, more favourable in the south - but becoming mor influential day 6-8 (144-192 ) as the high retrogrades- Something like the 00z GEM is my super ensemble mean today. moving onto the second phase - The profile of the high indicates that a natural burst of WAA to the pole is the order of the day, the ECM alligns that NNE & theres the problem being positive in the tilt means winds would at best be SE flow- However all the cold runs allign the high more Northwards or with a hint of NW - that then allowing for an undercut- Again due to the SSW conditiona favour less pos tilt & mor neutralness which is fine... Models discounted:' ECM OP- Winter 17/18 performance blighted by over progressive runs about day 4-6 out from Blocking scenarios from the NE- ECM appears to throw to much energy east at day 5 onwards- The model has also backtracked ovrnight to th expected outlook--- GFS OP 06z No trigger shortwave - Historic bias shows the model cannot move energy South... IKON / UK / NAVGEM UKMO occasionally has the bias of to much energy in the southern arm on the split scenario so while models like this winter have moved to the UKMO the UKMO model has backtracked slightly as well this winter back to the less amplified / extreme progressive scenarios which are todays 'cold in early' cluster. That leaves me with the GEM 00z which is my forecast evolution > Cold through the mid term from the watered down trigger low - but not especially cold as the initial easterly isnt deep enough- but post that the retrograde is in peak position to undercut the block similar to what the meto updates have been saying-.... Best S

ECM 144 in a Easterly wind I actually give up....

Just for once in a lifetime be correct.... @That ECM

Never mind trying to get two models to converge , we can’t get two posters to agree on the same output .. doomed we are !

So just back from work and am catching up. UKMO - Brilliant 0z, Awful 12z GFS - Awful 0z, Awful 12z ECM - Awful 0z, Very good 12z ICON - Brilliant 0z, Brilliant 12z Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new king in town. All hail the ICON 240 ECM and we have a massive easterly incoming... This is without doubt the most ludicrous hobby ever *rolls eyes and closes laptop until 9.30pm*

saved by the indian model! goodness gracious me!!

If anything, these timescales may have come forward a touch on overnight data. Much more movement of tropical indices towards the Indian Ocean, favouring GWO phase 1 response. However, here's where I'm constrained by calendar monthly analysis. Composite for GWO Feb phase 1: Composite for GWO March phase 1: Surely it couldn't be that simple ? The compromise between the two would best fit - amalgamating both Feb and March dates gives: Not particularly helpful, but does suggest Euro trough is the key factor here. Model with best fit on this seems to be the GEM operational.

No sign of spring till after Easter .......

Sure sign of incoming doom, Summer Sun ramping a cold run

The UKMO latest model run develops the Easterly very quickly early next week. Even the latest 84h fax chart shows heights building over Scandinavia and lowering over Western mainland Europe . So the 96h fax when it is next updated will be crucial to see if the raw output has the trigger shortwave on its charts. If that the case , I would back UKMO at that shorter time scale. Fingers crossed for you guys ! C

This Easterly has been at day 10 + for ...around 10 days now! At this rate we might get a white Christmas I suppose ?

ECM 120- You have to laugh as the ECM alligns with the IKON.. Lol what a merry go round.... Wheres that computer smash GIF

So, before I sign off for the evening, a few stats. Today, there have been over 50 posts reported, all in the model thread, which the team have checked and in most cases acted upon. We've hidden or moved around 100 posts from the model thread in total today as well. That's a lot..... The reason I'm sharing this is a. For those people who seem to think that it's only their posts which have been moderated. And b. To show the workload involved in deal with those who just don't want to moderate themselves in here. The odd off topic post is something which happens - we don't catch them all, and in some cases it's just a small topic drift and ok. Unfortunately in others, 1 off topic post can lead to 20 in the blink of an eye, hence the reason we try to act speedily. So, please - can we all work together to keep this thread about the models (which is what virtually everyone wants). We don't want to remove posts, and the ultimate power is with everyone who makes a post, as if they're on topic/within the guidelines then we don't have to. Obviously, this is an off topic post, please don't follow it up with any more - if you want to discuss the above, you're welcome to pm me or any other member of the team. Paul

Underlined bit above still applies. I genuinely can’t believe how many people, good rational people, experienced posters, have thrown the towel in at some point this week. Like after the GFS/UKMO 12Zs this evening for instance. At what point were people expecting this week, in terms of chart output, to be anything other than what has ended up occurring? The models are just not used to coping with a warming and reversal of this magnitude. Normal rules do not apply. Don’t give up yet on the quick Easterly next week just yet, still very much an option on the table. This I found strange. View the GFS OP as it moves from its flabby meandering lost puppy mess of hi res into low res. It’s like a switch is clicked and the charts start looking more ‘normal’. Same happened on a couple of earlier runs. It’s sort of back to front to how you might expect it to be. Read into it how you will..

All today has confirmed is that the models are really struggling with developments next week. Watching people's knee jerk reactions to each run of each model is making it more entertaining.

Well last a few days I posted this, worth taking stock of again... Why are we seeing cold spells fail to materialise? Background So, first some context…. The UK winter is moderated by the Gulf Stream, warm ocean currents move north from the tropics and help prevent the UK from being as cold as somewhere like Moscow. The diagram below shows a picture of the ocean currents. Warm air directed to the UK from Gulf stream Now interestingly there is evidence to suggest this is slowing down which generally should mean a negative feedback in the northern hemisphere due to a decrease in heat transport. Just one problem… the strengthening of mid latitude highs and deepening of polar lows means the Eurasian continent has warmed substantially during the winter months. Trends in SLP since the 1950s (Gillett et al 2005) So where is affected by this negative feedback?, well the below diagram clearly shows one place. The central North Atlantic. Looking at warming trends in the figure below we can see that this region has actually got cooler over time, in stark contrast to almost everywhere else. IPCC, global temperature trend from 1900-2012, spot an anomaly? This is now referred to as the North Atlantic cold blob and I believe it hurts our chances of cold winters. Look at the last 4 winters. These have been dominated by more frequent then usual westerlies and the North Atlantic SST profiles are seen below. 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 February 2018 - See a pattern developing here? To get a cold anomaly in this region it requires cold air from NE Canada to pour into the North Atlantic…. And how is that possible? Yup with a polar vortex camped to the west of Greenland. So with a slightly weaker AMOC and an intensification of mid-latitude highs we have a pretty poor combination of factors for UK cold whereas in the US it ain’t so bad. That is why the US still sees these big cold air outbreaks from time to time. So how can we break this sequence? Well other factors also influence our climate, extreme MJO phases, low solar activity or a dramatic slowdown of the AMOC can do it. In December 2009 this is precisely what happened. With the increased warmth nowadays, if this is directed to the arctic it can really shunt the PV for long periods of time. Just look at the anomalous arctic warmth in 2010. December 2009 - Bullseye Indeed this pattern persisted until January 2011 but a very strong La Nina signal prevailed for that winter later on. Other alternatives are extreme MJO phases (the phase 7 signal recently helped build Scandi highs to our east, though they weren’t that strong) and deep cold pooling just to our east. However the warming arctic and more intense mid latitude highs makes this more difficult. Just look at the last 4 Februaries + this January and their temperature anomalies. Continental cold can stop the Atlantic in its tracks. In 2013 we got lucky and February the arctic was actually colder then normal. This cold air spilled into Scandi and in combination with the SSW event, this was allowed to stem the Atlantic tide and as a result we got a very cold March. Battleground in the model output So where does this lead? Well its of my opinion that we are seeing a more volatile NAO because positive phases are amplified by trends in mid latitude highs. Negative phases are amplified by increased warmth heading to the arctic. Just look at the NAO values for each winter since 2006. 2006/07 + 1.81 2007/08 + 1.34 2008/09 - 0.31 2009/10 - 2.71 2010/11 - 0.84 2011/12 + 2.08 2012/13 - 0.58 2013/14 +2.05 2014/15 + 2.04 2015/16 + 1.84 2016/17 +1.12 Bear in mind any mean value over one is considered extreme Will the organised polar vortex drown out the SSW again? Was the last question I left. Seems like the answer is yes bar some spectacular turnaround in the models. I've learnt from the last few years that unless you have blocking to the NW or a really strong Scandi high the chances of a cold spell verifying are far smaller thanks to the North Atlantic cold pool. Less cold to our east to fight advancing Atlantic depressions. December had its moments but only for a short time. I think we have to get the perfect combination of factors to get cold now or a slowdown of the AMOC like it did in 2010/2012. If we don't see many more slowdowns then we are going to have a hard time getting the cold our way. It looks like its the cold blob in the north Atlantic is slowly re-emerging again looking at the latest SST maps like it has done for the past 4 years. Watch the ECM deliver a cold easterly now

Can you please justify calling what I said 'absolute nonsense'. I completely disagree. It may not come to pass but there ARE some springlike charts on show this morning. Here is an example, and this is for Sunday which is well inside the reliable: Monday: The temperatures for many parts of England and Wales are well above average for the time of year, and would certainly be in the 'springlike' category in my book. Any chance you could post some proper cold charts in the reliable time frame? If you're in the Scottish Highlands then I stand corrected. If you think my view is 'nonsense' then please post some charts to back up your point.

Things still coming along nicely now - IKON > UKMO has now followed to a suitable scenario - Can the ECM make it a full house? Far to many lemmings on here last night jumping off the cliff !

EPS shows 6 clusters as early as day 5 By the 24th, good support for block to the N or NE Still some fuel left in the tank for a much colder pattern to evolve ...

Based on the time lag effect of a SSW (10-14 days) (equating to 24-28 Feb), its perhaps no wonder the models currently are not especially convincing yet with the signal of blocking taking over; though the signs are there, given the reliable is always 120-144hr timeframe max, it won't be until probably Saturday at the earliest I suspect they begin to get to grips with its impact, and even then they may still show blocking in different places. Its all making for a rather trying few days model watching, one of those periods to just let them ride out, until a clearer picture emerges. With this in mind perhaps take a break from model watching until Sunday. The projected secondary warming looks prime to hit the fledging PV -breaking it down in earnest and this factor is likely to prolong the blocking theme deep into March. My hunch, is we will see heights build over the UK through the first part of next week, eventually ridging into Scandi, the trigger thereafter to high lattitude blocking will be a combination of WAA through mid atlantic into Greenland, sharpening the ridge and quickly joining forces with the burgeoning heights over the Pole and out of NW Russia. Thereafter with the effects of the secondary warming, heights will quickly retrogress NW to Greenland not before a potent easterly blast. First half of March could be a very cold one indeed. These are just my thoughts.

Looks like we might have to throw the towel in on any decent cold spell to end winter. The UKMO couldn’t even verify at T96 hrs this morning and the GFS brings back a rampant PV in by day 8. Even by some of the easterly debacles this one given the biggest zonal reversal in history re the strat looks like currently delivering zip. Although the models have been very jumpy they now seemed to have jumped onto the worst solution. Barring some miracle on the ECM it looks like the end of the road for this winter.

ECM clusters are out. Just two clusters at 240hrs. OP and Control in the majority cluster going for heights to our North and lows to our South. Theres a smaller (37%) cluster which amplifies the Atlantic trough. By 336hrs we have 5 clusters but 4/5 are just variants on where the Northern blocking sets up. Very good clusters.

The ECM miracle at T144hrs. Confidence in this solution a big fat zero!

Even the stratospheric positioning has adjusted unfavourably for us, with the whole setup rotated a little anticlockwise such that the Asian ridge is further away and the Canadian vortex more across Greenland. So let's just be clear here; we are seeing a quick tropospheric response, but it's not as well positioned as it once looked to be, and there is also more opposition to its effects from tropical forcing than once looked to be the case. Unless the models are wrong about these changes, particularly the more progressive tropospheric cold spill into the N. Atlantic from Canada and lack of much Euro trough action, our cold weather prospects are dependent on the secondary warming taking the Canadian vortex down another few rungs while shoving it back west, and the period of potential is located next weekend onward rather than within the preceding working week. What could possibly turn things back around with respect to the period 20th-23rd? Well, best candidate would be the phase 1 GWO response which ought to support a Euro trough and is the main reason I'm surprised not to see that outcome trended toward this evening. Alternatively, there are signs the MJO might just about hold onto some amplitude through phase 8, but it'd have to do so with greater strength than the current model consensus to force enough added amplitude downstream that the initial attempt at ridging into Scandinavia is not overrun and pushed SE into Europe. More likely it'd help us to get a classic WAA-driven build west of the blocking from Scandinavia during next weekend, which GFS has been toying with and does so again on the 12z: So barring the models mishandling the atmospheric response to the AAM falling into phase 1, the odds aren't looking great for a cold easterly prior to next weekend at the earliest. There is an interesting upside to the slower progression though - well, depending on how you feel about it being unusually cold in the final days of Feb and into March; the way the first warming sets up major blocking over Asia that then sits there before the door opens to a Scandinavian extension and then a reach west to the UK, is perfect for developing the largest, deepest pool of cold air possible to serve as ammunition for an easterly hitting the UK. All that then remains is to get the flow aligned correctly... yes, I know, that really can go to bits too and the 12z GFS is all too happy to illustrate that point! Make no mistake, this has been the most taunting winter I've ever known in terms of presenting opportunities and then snatching them away, but given we're approaching spring, you just know it'll give us January in March by way of cruel irony (quick, everyone pretend it's the most horrible idea in the world - reverse psychology required!) .

just a thought... while everyone is praising/tearing apart the various models over their performance, bear in mind that they operate on the collective physical data that is fed into them. this is collected from weather balloons, satellites, ships, buoys, aircraft, etc etc... its quite possible that during an event such as an SSW, this data will change very quickly over short periods of time, therefore some data could be outdated even before its fed into the computer. if they are trying to assimilate data which is changing rapidly in unusually dynamic atmospheric conditions, it might explain why there is so little coherence in the model output.

Ok,has too be a quick one from me tonight,our lass is ready with the frying pan,and no not for cooking either The ecm mean has been rock solid the last few days and still is,the op on par now too and the CPC still on the same page as yesterday too De-built ens dewpoint/wind direction still looking good OUCH!!!

How predictable that the ECM shows this after the 12z UKMO goes off the idea

Charts of the morning go to UKMO a bitter easterly setting up

ECM ensembles at D10: ECM op has about 10-15% support. Another 30% have a big low to the west of the UK, stalled by a block to the east - probably like GFS, milder air from SE coming The rest (50%-60%) have significantly blocking either to the NE or N

Well, I expected continued crazy model divergence this morning. Safe to say we got it. FI 96 hours. I coincidentally viewed the models in the perfect order of ECM, GFS, GEFS, GEM, ICON, UKMO So it was a bit like coming back from being 3-0 down at halftime to drawing 3-3. Because of the inescapable direness of the ECM and the GEFS backing away from the early Easterly, it didn’t feel like coming away with a win, just a draw. Didnt see the equaliser coming though, a fantastic out of the blue run from the U.K. model. Onwards we go. Truly fascinating stuff.

So then for the haters, The IKON is going to own the GFS here around the s/wave

Well the SSW is certainly causing model mayhem this morning, what really catches my eye, comparing GFS/EC/UKMO, is at t+120 the total absence on GFS of the deep low to the NW of the Azores - while EC and UKMO have it. Also, there are differences close to the east of the UK, as low drops south on the eastern edge of the ridge trying to build NE, UKMO develops an upper low over mainland Europe and high over Scandi - bringing an easterly flow, GFS and EC don't. GFS, EC and UKMO at t+120 Given such large discrepancies at t+120, even at H500 level, would have low confidence beyond this timerframe. UKMO was first to pick up the brief blocking that brought the E/NEly cold snap earlier this month, so perhaps it might again have the best handle, if it keeps it up on subsequent runs, shame there are no UKMO ens to look at!

So after a traumatic early start to the evening the models are now edging towards a colder solution. I don’t think it’s being melodramatic to say this last few days has seen some of the most abysmal NWP performance since we’ve had access to these on the net . Truly shocking continuity and such wild swings that what we normally think of more reliable time frames has been shredded to now having little confidence in outputs at T120hrs hrs even less given the UKMO switch from its morning output . Anyway at least the evening ends on a more positive note for coldies . We await the morning runs!

HIP HIP! HORRAYY! After what feels like 15 years the GFS has the trigger shortwave and it's sending it South.

ECM mean pans out more or less identical to the operational with a better swing to that initial trigger low - The only model to come out unscathed so far is the IKON lol...

So despite the early excitement from the IKON & GFs moving the shortwave early doors its been all down hill from there similar to 2012 the models have picked up a shortwave at 144 that will impede the retrograde North of the High- GFS / UKMO / GEM all now positive in the tilted atlantic- ECM had this last 2 runs- Pretty Pony TBH.

Well a Euro trough being favoured by GWO composites is good news considering we're already edging into P1 according to the GEFS-derived plots. Interesting that the bolstered subtropical ridging tends to find its way to the high latitudes more in March. I suppose seasonal wavelength changes are the reason? Fascinating how UKMO, GEM and ICON have been consistently raising heights much more and sooner over Scandinavia than the other models, even when the trigger low is absent. The way it happens so fast and in such a focused region gives me the impression that these models are seeing a regional propagation of anomalies down from the stratosphere. What's not so clear is whether this is only happening because for whatever reason they're already changing the response wavelength for GWO/AAM changes, or because they simply have a stronger propagation that 'overrides' unfavourable forcing from the lowering AAM. Tamara's wise words ring loud in my ears with respect to how much easier a time we would likely have had establishing the HLB where we'd like it if only the SSW had occurred a week sooner, when AAM was still flying high as a lagged response to the MJO activity and would not have been sent downward fast or far enough to pose a problem. Even after this mismatch of timing becaome apparent, we did for a time have GFS/GEFS holding AAM up a bit better as it did not decline the MJO so fast (underestimated SSW impacts?), and this led to a batch of very tasty runs with easterlies by this coming weekend that unfortunately have proved to be in error. So it is that we're seeing one hell of a stratosphere-troposphere battle commencing. Now I do think the ECM operational has persistently been overly strong with La Nina forcing this winter, hence it's poorer performance for our region this past winter. So that could be a source of some optimism, but it's fair to say that the notion of a bit too much westerly momentum - though very likely not by as much as ECM keep showing - could place us in a bit of a no-mans-land for a time if we don't get the fast height rises of UKMO/GEM/ICON. Speaking of ICON, it uses a different grid method specifically designed to handle Arctic patterns better. This has potentially concerning impacts on its ability to handle lower latitudes correctly, but perhaps, just maybe, in a situation where HLB is critical, it might actually be worth paying more attention too? Just a thought.

00Z EC det. a mild outlier for T2m in London between 23rd-25th, big spread after 23rd, with plenty of increasingly cold members there. Leuven in Belgium a mild outlier too at that time scale

Morning all Groundhog Day it would seem with more shattered nerves and thrown toys after the evening runs failed to live up to the expectations and hopes of a number of the more excitable participants. As usual, if the chart wasn't showing storm force easterlies and -20 uppers at T+6, people were "calling time" on the cold spell and having the useful half-baked whinging, whining and moaning which belongs in the other thread. Anyway, before I'm dispatched there, my morning summation of the medium term output which today takes us to Sunday February 25th or T+240 to its friends. Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at this time: A very different evolution from previous days and I'm not sure why. Any attempt to build heights to the NE has been scrubbed and instead the Atlantic is firmly in charge with an LP pushing NE well to the north of the Faeroes and a mild SW'ly between that and heights over Europe. One thing worth noting from the Northern Hemisphere profile is it seems the LP has detached a part of the PV and while that doesn't seem able to encourage mid-Atlantic ridging it would like the residual vortex much weaker. That being said, it's a significant shift away from the modelling of previous days and it will be interesting to see where this sits in the ECM Ensembles. GEM 00Z at T+240: Very different from ECM and much more in line with what we've been seeing of late. A strong very cold ENE'ly airflow covers the British Isles with HP to the north and a classic LP over the Gulf of Genoa. -8 uppers cover the British Isles with -12 uppers approaching the East Coast so you can guess the rest. On then to the GFS 00Z OP at T+240: Yet another evolution. The HP develops over Scandinavia but the orientation isn't quite there at this time to fully advect the very cold air westwards so we have a SE'ly flow across the British Isles and the Atlantic LP systems are clearly slipping SE towards Iberia which would be a welcome sign for cold weather fans. However, that's not what happens in further FI - the Atlantic trough and the Ukrainian trough expand and meet across the British Isles producing some curious synoptics with, I suspect, a lot of rain for the south and snow for the north but the cold wins out and pushes the Atlantic back so by T+384 the cold is firmly in charge. GFS 00Z Control at T+240: Nearer the GEM than its own OP and a very solid chart for the cold weather fans with HP over Scandinavia and the colder air seemingly coming toward us. In further FI, the HP retrogresses to Greenland and the Scandinavian trough comes into play leaving the British Isles in a cold NNE'ly airflow with perhaps the coldest air more to the east but certainly still pretty chilly. The GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 Still looking very solid for the E'ly. If I was being picky, I'd certainly say 3-4 members had more Atlantic influence but no more. GEM Ens at the same time: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=1&mode=1&ech=240 Mean looks solid and while there's more Atlantic influence than on GFS it still looks a solid suite for fans of cold. I don't normally include the UK MetO charts because they go up to T+144 at best - yep. In summary, we are still a long way from cross model agreement though both GFS and GEM have maintained their consistency. ECM's morning output will be a huge concern for cold weather fans and I can't explain it at this time. I glanced through the ECM members last night and found a solid majority backing northern blocking but the OP refuses to come on board and that will be a concern and rightly so. Having GFS and GEM solidly on side is a big plus and this morning's MetO output will have got many quite excited and given its reputation deservedly so. The other point is the cold isn't being pushed back as some claim - as MetO shows the right evolution can get it in earlier but the timescale of the 23rd-25th has always been where I've looked and that remains on course for the majority of output this morning. I do think the longevity of cold has been improved this morning if that's any consolation. I'm not going to dismiss the ECM output even if it is an outlier - it's an important model with solid verification numbers and it may be right. IF it is, it will deserve all the plaudits but this is still a long way from being nailed and I'm afraid for all of us the roller coaster is starting up again. Buckle Up !!

Quite the morning in the highlands again peeps, 10cm overnight and has been hammering down this morn

If you’re trying to console yourself you could think the ECM was the first to go downhill so perhaps it’s picked up a new signal . Alternatively it’s torturing us and leading us on another wild goose chase ! Its very hard to have much faith in its output given all the chopping and changing. The early timeframe is crucial because all the models agree on the PV gathering once again to the nw. You have to have a block in place before that happens. Anyway we should hopefully know in the morning unless that is the models are now going to start disagreeing within T72 hrs!

The problem I have is stage 1 has failed. The shortwave hasn't dropped South and thus, the high just kind of sits over the UK not really doing much. We're now back to square 1 again with looking out into deep FI hoping something materialises for us. Meanwhile, the days are ticking on and we're getting further away from the coldest part of the year. The longer we wait, the better the synoptics have to be to deliver. Everyone is getting fed up of chasing phantom Easterlies, it feels like that's all we've really been doing this winter. The models have been absolutely abysmal this year, worse than previous years it feels.

i would rather be seeing this at day 5- oh look- it IS at day 5!

Seems odd using the crappest run of the day as your tipping point.

Two posts one after the other with two different views, confused.com springs to mind!

Well now, Steve, I would've thought you'd know better than to rely on one run (and I know you do!). Fun is fun and ramping is ramping but UKMO & IKON vs GFS & ECM isn't quids in for cold. And yes, facts and science do matter when predicting the weather (and I know you know that too).

Oh dear! UKMO Fail

According to the 06z we could be having some spring like temperatures at last from late next week. It would suit me and probably millions of other people.

I'm really starting to think that a lot of us have spent a week screaming "cold delayed" "easterly pushed back" when in reality we may have missed it actually getting 24 hours closer every day. I find it quite strange over the last week that Meto have not seemingly taken a usual cards under the table approach and sat on the fence so to speak. The 19th is the date they have stuck to in their updates as has IF. Whichever models it is that have to jump ship as early as t96, i predict a SNW in the next 24 hours (Sudden Netweather Meltdown) and i have this inkling it will be in our favour.

I haven't posted for a few days because to be honest the inconsistency of the output has put me off posting. Anyway here is my opinion of the latest output. If I was honest if it wasn't for the UKMO this morning I would be very dubious of any cold E,ly arriving. This is because the ECM/GFS being at odds with the ensemble means and the operationals continuing to be outliers. When this occurs with support from the lesser models then I tend to lean towards the higher resolution of the operationals. I will add though the ECM & GFS are hardly the same as each other. So based on everything above I would say we have a 35% of a cold, snowy E,ly i.e UKMO/GEM etc, 35% of just a SE,ly bringing nothing but settled conditions, 30% SW,ly like ECM. Lets hope the odds swing more towards the E,ly but at this moment in time only 35% chance for me.