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Been looking at Februaries with a weak La Nina and MJO motoring into colder phases and only a few which match since 1980 as far back as MJO plots go: Feb 2006 probably the best match, -0.4 on the Nino index, MJO orbit through 7 and into 8 early Feb at decent amplitude, maybe what we could be headed towards. Feb 2012 was weak La Nina, MJO into 7/8/1 in Feb, a cold and snowy first half, but very anticyclonic Feb 1993 was neutral ENSO with MJO making it into phase 7 at decent amplitude early Feb before heading to COD, MLB bringing a dry month for the UK. Feb 1986, early '86 was pulling out of La Nina into neutral, so Feb was -0.2 on the index, MJO through 7 and 8 at low amplitude with some COD in Feb though, extremely cold month. The models today seem keen to build a ridge N to the west over the N Atlantic next week and by early Feb, in response to the trop PV over Hudson being forced south by the developing -EPO/+PNA upstream. However, it seems the operationals and ensemble means are not hinting at the mid-Atlantic ridge being more than a MLB and morphing into a HLB or Scandi/Greenland high yet, but we may have to wait until the lagged effect of MJO through 8/1 ... which tend to be more favourable for HLB than 7, so could be a longer wait into February for this. There is a concern that intense cold vortex shifting back to eastern N America will crank up the jet too much and supress ridging over Atlantic to build north more than just transitory in nature, and this seems to be played out by the operationals this evening, but will have to see if both MJO and also strat-trop interactions over Altantic/Europe can provide some help, particularly as the strat PV looks like being displaced off the pole again via wave 1 induced by MJO wave. Certainly not overly concerned by the underwhelming model guidance for now, as they may not have the best handle how the likely pattern change into early Feb will affect the upper wave patterns over Atlantic and Europe, despite better confidence of guidance over N America.

When MJO experts are quoting eastward movement in the MJO then one tends to take notice. When MJO experts are citing CFS analogs within other variables, given the credence of CFS on here then one really does take notice, lots of noise in the Wheeler and Hendon plots, this looks legit. The Matthews site shows solid progression, and many other tweets tease the 7-8-1 progression in the offing.. blocks manifest very, very quickly in this regime. We get hints from the modelling, then they are dropped, GFS has a fight with the ramplified ECM and UKMO steadies the ship. ECM to my eye is 1.5 - 2 days quicker with MJO passage than GFS and subesquent transference to NWP, think this is to do with not the GFS bias but ECM parameterization ( may be wrong) think they were using drones a couple of years back to get into the guts of the MJO and improve performance. Point being we have the vortex heading into a potentially 'vulnerable' period if the lagged MJO p2/3 manifests vs MJO now active and seeking to mix it up across the pacific = much model interest for month end. My watch is not only for the strat precursors, but the solid MJO activity circa week one Jan and it's downwelling artefact / imposition on upper echelons of the vortex. If we can be lucky and benefit from 781 then great doubles the chances of vortex perturbation, If not it may be weakened enough to see MJO manifest more readily. Time will tell, just a week or so away now to test the p2/3 MJO eventual downwelling vortex impacts theory. The Italian site with the Nina / Nada / Nino analogs favour the limpet MA block, Nino esque favours the NNE, classical for the NNW by way of blocks. Too early to tell yet, based on today and wishing some further coherence vs CFS and the slant that the US experts are telgraphing their arctic hammer set up, we need to wait a little longer and see the nuanced play out of blocking in our locale.

Sorry to have to post this - but lots of winter over posts this eve, these should be put into the bin box - it makes for very irritating reading. I actually think we are in the best position all season so far of seeing a more pronounced non atlantic colder set up; not saying it will happen, but the pacific height development nosing into the Pole coinciding with a weakened PV and atlantic, and propensity of mid atlantic height development is a good foundation point. Traditionally February sees a weakening of the jetstream and we are more likely to see northerly and easterly airstreams take hold especially the further we go into the month - history shows this.

So your posting up a Chart for T132 that shows a 12 hour window for the north to see some wintry ness Not exactly compelling evidence— Noones looking for an ‘easterly’ every time - just commenting on the evolution which indicated something could come from the East - You can’t categorically say nothing from the east this year as you will look as stupid as the same people like IB who said the same thing in 2009/2010/2013 & so on- so the option needs to be on the table - S

Every morning ecm sends us off to work with a nice looking day 10 chart. We are not having it anymore until they start moving to day 9,8,7 etc

Thought I would lighten up the mood in here a bit ?. If the GFS 12z in FI comes of we would be digging are selfs out ?. Obviously this is JFF and I thought I'd post these charts because FROSTY seems to of gone missing ?.

There are quite a few moving parts that need to come right to get that ridge sufficiently north and east to advect the cold into the UK. But we are seeing closer agreement re the upstream pattern. You can see if you follow the NH perspective the deepish low crossing Arctic Canada around T162hrs and its effect on the PV, because this runs east on an amplified wave it attaches to the PV and helps to pull that nw it also helps to sharpen up the pattern in the Atlantic which helps to pull the ridge further ne. Overall the trend is good and lets hope this continues this evening.

Ian?

I can understand your frustration but you know sometimes colder synoptics do verify. I know at times it seems that everything that can go wrong does but occasionally even the UKs forcefield against cold can’t hold out!

But Ice Man surely you can see the irony in talking about the ‘reliable’ and then writing off the next 6 weeks?

Steve Murr sausage a la 06z, the SE that's missed out on the cold recently gets a turn late next week with -10C T850s, pity it's unlikely to verify at t+216!

Morning all Another day, another named storm it would appear but it did look as though we were heading into a more settled spell with the change in the month so where are we this morning ? ECM 00Z at T+240 (February 3rd): A cracking chart for cold and snow fans to start the day. Rain and snow in abundance to the east and south east and the Azores HP trying to ridge north into Greenland. I expect the T+264 chart wouldn't show that but it's a fine chart for fans of winter. GEM 00Z OP at the same time: Very different as might be expected. In comparison to yesterday's GEM, a shade more amplified but with a 960MB LP off the Norwegian coast, a strong cold NW'ly flow across the British Isles with the best of any dry weather to the south west and possibly blizzard conditions in any snow showers to Scottish hills and mountains. GEM has a much stronger Atlantic profile than ECM so no prospect of any HLB but note the small LP in mid-Atlantic and the sense each new HP cell coming off the CONUS is angled further north than its predecessor. It's not a chart without interest or the "p" word. GFS 00Z OP at the same time: Strong HP just to the SW of the British Isles and fairly benign conditions for most on a mild W or WSW'ly airflow. The Atlantic profile, while not as vigorous as GEM, means there is enough strength in the northern arm of the jet to prevent the HP ridging N or NE at this time. Further into FI, the PV becomes very powerful trapping a very large pool of very cold air and creating cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic keeping a strong WSW'ly airflow going and the British Isles in mild and fairly benign conditions. GFS 00Z Control at the same time: Not too dissimilar to the OP at this stage but further into FI the HP staggers across the meridian and ends up over or just to the east of the British Isles with another attempt to ridge into Greenland under way at T+384. Looking at the GEFS at T+240: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240 I'd say the OP and Control are fairly representative. The theme is MLB but the exact location and orientation are far from resolved. A position to the west or SW of the British Isles looks favoured this morning but other options are on the table. Further on, as you'd expect, the spread becomes considerable but that's not to say there aren't a lot of cold options on the table and, I'd argue, more cold than mild at this stage. In summary. the three main models at T+240 all have their own evolutions which suggests huge buckets of uncertainty. ECM is dramatic for cold fans and perhaps less lonely than it was yesterday. GEM has amplified slightly while GFS loves its HP cells in the SW approaches. I suspect after the short colder blip on Thursday we'll see a return of milder conditions for a few days but the evolution from early next week remains far from clear.

3 successive runs from the GFS where the wave height@192 is insufficient to cover the ground needed to get the ridge to Scandi - being that it gets cut off over the North Sea- not to much to be excited about ATM - although some time left for change. Its interesting people are still hanging their hats on the modelling of the MJO when the GFS can’t even get it right at day 1-2... s

Indeed, we may not see any impacts from the amplification of the MJO wave on the tropospheric wave patterns as it moves into the Western Pacific until well into February, given the lag, the wave seems to be slowing on recent EC forecasts and we only get into phase 7 as February starts, 7 more of a transitions too to phase to 8/1 which tend to produce blocking and HLBs. The models still agreeing on amplification over the Atlantic days 8-10, but this is likely a result of greater amplitude in the upper wave patterns upstream created by the -EPO block that has formed from anti-cyclonic wave-breaking downstream of the Siberian Low and possibly downwelling form the strat too. So the Atlantic ridge building N signal around the start of Feb is not likely a manifestation of the 'colder' phases of the MJO moving into the western Pacific, so unlikely to form a high lat block from there, but if we can squeeze some cold and wintry weather out of the this amplification later next week, before the pattern possibly flattens out from the NW again, the that would be a bonus! But there are nagging doubts over how much the MJO will have an impact for NW Europe as it moves towards and into the more favourable P8, if it makes it at decent amplitude, and possibly 1. As Chino mentioned recently, the low GLAAM and GWO orbit may act against ridging building sufficiently north to build HLB to bring us a worthwhile more protracted and deep cold spell nationwide. There also the matter of strat-trop interactions too to bear in mind that can influence the trop patterns, as although we are seeing decent wave 1 hits over the coming days, which will help dislodge and weaken the SPV again, probably towards Europe, wave 2 amplification is appearing rather elusive this winter, which doesn't bode well for a SSW and may mean the SPV bounces back again to the pole and re-strengthens. Anyway, in the meantime, lets hope we can pull off a half decent cold snap to start February from the possible Atlantic amplification the models are keen on showing for later next week.

WOW . No comments this morning ?? I thought the ECM was petty good for cold and especially the the T240 . That would be quite a bit of snow would it not ??

Yeah, my thoughts too. Seems like winter's over for now but more to come. We hit 7C today, which we did briefly a couple of weeks ago, otherwise not since the first week of last month. Locally it's been very cold and snowier so far than for a few years - winter 10/11 - but it's bad news when the warmth kicks in like this after a cold spell. I've had some good fun with the Yeti on the snow lately, including some on minor roads in Caithness last week. Like the Black Isle, Caithness was cold and snowy for several weeks. This picture was Saturday last week at Plodda Falls, up beyond Tomich. Like Lapland.

Another all knowing sage ....? Anyway, putting aside the wind up winter’s over tosh. We continue to sit, wait and watch. Still a whole week to go before Feb, the month which historically is the best month to produce down south, even gets started... The MJO trundling along nicely thank you very much, amplification hopefully the name of the game. The vortex has seen better days and a strat warming likely to add to the fun (and the uncertainty). Yes we need the dominoes to fall for us but Feb week 2 definitely up for grabs and thereafter, who knows. I don’t and nor does anybody else on this forum.

yup- While we can never say never im afraid those purples and blues have never looked like leaving their winter home- Virtually every single person i speak to from work mates to taxi drivers all say the same thing, what on earth has happened to our winters, and dont get me started on the summers, an utterly depressing climate in my locale. 100% no doubt in my mind the northern blocking will come in mid march to april which is as much use as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine - I used to be like some in the MO thread- hoping and hoping and hoping. Fraid we ar stuck in a rut of absolute tripe as far as winter is concerned (and summer for that matter altho the south obv will still do OK)- Could all change come Nov/Dec (altho i doubt it), but for this 'winter', forget it.

Dropping a few pointers into the mix... Mlb looks quite defined if you put into context a mix of runs-suites of past-present data and evolvement.... The lack of cold pooling which failed us preety much all winter(thus far) is now building with vigor!... Anyone suggesting a few pertubations/gefs or otherwise saying they are of minimal suggest needs to understand...with evolvement and block forming...along with mjo-forcing( more on that later)..is laugable for north easterly/easterly incur..are 'mistaken'!!. Data is by way of format inclined for as humans way of recognise....and in such circumstance, small but consistant signals are perhaps more worthy..for latter prognosis than not..... Its certainly getting very interesting as with step into feb-and i give you pertubate 12...gefs) Which with high cell switching of late(through data)...isn' nt completely laughable... Momentum and guide alignment is gaining solid format...and my bet is the coldest part of winter-uk- may soon be upon us....

Garbage output continues unabaited. Unless 24 hour topplers are your thing. Cant see any reason to change the thoughts that winter 17/18 is a write off, in fact it never really got started for the majority..

Yep nothing interesting at all this side of the 192 hour charts Steve Unless There will be no Easterly this year! save your self the trouble of looking for one all the time.

South east England get snow this time that's if gfs is on the money..

A wee bit blown out there this morning ... a few photos from last night before the storm blew in

Anyone who is a long standing member on this site will remember this tosh being stated in the late noughties time and time again.... However it is not that HLB's favourable for the UK are over, moreso that the conditions haven't aligned to provide them for a while. This year we are battling low GLAAM, and any strat or trop atmospheric response will have to overcome this. With low solar conditions coming for the next few years, there will certainly be chances. Traditionally, La Nina febs don't produce cold for us here, but we still would be foolish to write anything off with the MJO forecasts battling against the low GLAAM and the strat becoming more conducive to a possible SSW. That is the real reality.

The spread on the eps still say that anything and everything is possible

Good point, some consistency in recent runs has been shown in brutal cold into Europe. A reason to be optimistic because at least it is there to be tapped into.

I will only start to BELIEVE it when the countdown gets down to 1 hour away ?

SNOW!! Ok, well, rain with a little bit of very wet sleet... Unlike this from a few days ago...

Been up in Emburra today and the wind was hellish. Went up to get the hair done, spent a bomb - and 1 second after coming oot of the hairdressers I looked like Daphne Broon.

So whilst people are wondering what will happen in the Pacific in a weeks time the GFS is throwing out a rather potent but short lived cold spell with the potential for some white stuff even in the South East A feature of this winter is low to track over the UK form the North West. Also of note is that by day 5 the cold air is back in Scotland and working its way south. Must be having a good skiing season up there

Because ecm never verifies when it shows cold in fl.the model is a complete waste of time after t+144 if your looking for cold trends from it,in the winter months Not that any other model is much better,looking forward to end of feb,when we usually see northern blocking more likely to actually verify ,when we are not in the winter months anymore when was the last we saw one of the really cold gfs ensemble members verify ,like this one from today.like never ever

Bunch of posts related to winter being over or not (yawn!), which is obviously not model discussion have been moved to the relevant thread.

Gfs fi interesting to me as it isn’t so far from the pattern we saw in first half December - Azores ridge attempting to get north, only to be flattened by the next Canadian vortex pulse. Recent modelling had indicated to me that upstream troughing in the states could well see a broad replication of the downstream pattern. Wedges !!

A downgrade on the 12z for GFS around the mid term 192hrs, too much energy going in the northern arm unfortunately

But it’s at day 9/10 ! Spreads on the eps uppers and heights by day 10 show that there really isn’t much point trying to make a strong prediction for week 2 at the moment. Give it a day or two to settle down.

It would appear that Georgina hasn't as yet developed into an individual enclosed system and is not as deep as the models were predicting. Still looking at strong winds and gales in many places and moderate/heavy rain, currently over Scotland and N. England, moving south east during the day clearing the south east by 1800, Behind the front a strong westerly wind and squally showers which is already the name of the game in N. Ireland. This continues overnight but by midday tomorrow the much mentioned amplification is underway with the twin HP systems, the Bermuda and Azores, surging north and north east respectively whilst the upper trough over north west Europe begins to deconstruct. But the UK is still under he influence of low pressure as a filling low drifts east so still showery and windy The trough continues to deconstruct as the Atlantic ridge continues to nudge east over the UK thus Friday becomes the best day for a while as the winds and showers abate But the ridge is somewhat transient as it comes under pressure from the quite intense upstream energy and the analysis at 1200 on Saturday epitomizes the forthcoming evolution in the medium term. We now have a cut off upper low in the Mediterranean as the result of the deconstruction and the Azores high pressure attempting to push north/north east but coming under constant pressure from the twin energy flows emerging from Canada and the southern States that are tending to merge in the western Atlantic. This tends to result in a compromise as can be seen on Saturday with weak fronts pushing through thus changeable conditions but very much tending to a N/S split and quite wet and windy in the north. A characteristic of this pattern This can be summed up quite neatly by looking at this morning's GEFS 5-10 anomaly.

Core of low pressure (storm Georgina) about to hit southern Hebrides and Skye, fairly narrow band of very strong winds could gust to 140 km/hr. Will be more like 100-110 km/hr further south except in a few areas well exposed to westerly winds. Estimated arrival time 0600h South Uist and 0700h Skye, nearby areas of mainland western Scotland. If north of the track of this low, expect 50-80 km/hr east backing northeast to north then 80-120 km/hr northwest.

Let's hope so Daniel. To be fair anything modelled has been very transient to my eyes in terms of what we have actually seen here in Kent. Yes, there's been a few snow flakes but nothing of any note. I agreeee, something worthwhile now please hoping the experts are onto something. February can be an excellent month to deliver cold. Proper cold

Change is coming! Give it a few days as the MJO does look like bringing a change upstream. Central USA troughing If it verifies is likely to deliver Euro troughing downstream. The bit in the middle is the likely more uncertain aspect, a flow from the ne can’t be ruled out.

Mmm the models don't look quite right this evening, especially ECM,how can you have a very strong high pressure out to our west but also a flat jet for days on end.. with precursor for low heights to drop through on a more NW-SE aligned jet. My own view is we will see some form of strong mid atlantic block to herald Feb with low pressure anchoring down from the NW, chilly rather than mild, but the key feature to keep an eye on is the pacific ridge set to build northwards into the Pole, this is likely to put a squeeze on the PV and enable cold pooling to the NE, somethign we haven't really seen so far this season, and with I suspect a weaker atlantic, the colder dense air to the NE could eventually edge out the atlantic influence - but may not be until well into the second week of Feb allowing the omni-ever present heights to our west to build NE...

Unfortunately the US and the south east mediterranean steals the cold on the ecm. Conclusion? This run will probably be near the mark as this sort of scenario nearly always proves to be correct.

Well I hope your right there tight, I guess more runs needed, certainly not without some potential. No point in worrying about the SSW, bit late in the day for that I'd say would just produce a cold spring now.

Yes a lot flatter and day 9 is rubbish ? And day 10 even worse . I did try lighting the mood earlier but the ECM has just took the P**S . So the mood in here dimmed back down ?

this ecm run looks flatter with less waa upstream

I'm sure if was a chart at 132 showing wintry ness for the South it wouldn't be treated with such disdain lol

There might be further down the line, and when there is brutal cold near by as well.

Round two at 240z

Looks like quite a defined SW-NE ridge axis from Azores to Scandi (over UK) looking at the day 12-13 EPS H500 mean, that pattern would be indicative of WAA north across the GIN corridor ahead of PV over Canada and cold into Europe + S and E UK as suggested by EPS T850 mean. However, given recent ensemble spread from day 10, difficult to assume too much from the ensemble means unfortunately.

Because it’s at T+240. It’ll never happen like that.

That is a highly encouraging MJO update shared by Nick S I was fearful La Niña would act as destructive interference if the experts are right this doesn’t appear to be the case. Best not to dissect too much from NWP at this stage. Potentially for the first time in the winter, we may be in for a shout of a properly wintry pattern.