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Showing content with the highest reputation on 25/10/17 in all areas

  1. garden path? backtrack? misery?.... we have recurring modelling of wave 2 activity, throwing warm air into the arctic, battering the vortex at an important time in its development- and people are worried about missing out on a couple of sleet flurries in the midst of autumn?? reality check - this is great stuff to see. i like my snow in winter. 'deep and crisp and even' etc... and if these patterns keep showing up, we just might get some!
    27 points
  2. Very intriguing question. Firstly I will show the modelling in a different light, compared to the determ models. This is the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) model, which is actually a combo between GEFS and GEPS. Comparing it to EPS, provides a very useful outlook IMO, especially for longer range modelling. First the next 7 days worth of 500mb anomalies. Then the first 7 days of November. Big contrast between the ridge influence in Wk 1 and then the cold snap/trough coming over in Wk 2. Lots of others have pointed this out, but just showing
    22 points
  3. Not without interest how the trop. vortex falls apart days 8-10 of the ECM 12z. Some very, eh, interesting discoveries while working today have got me paying more attention to this winter season at last. Most long-range models still seeing something different dominating the pattern forcing though, and it remains elusive as to what exactly. Anyway - I'd not worry too much about missing out on a few early northerlies, and in any case, we should after the past few winters be very used to the light being at the end of a tunnel that seems capable of suddenly changing length without any wa
    11 points
  4. Vortex sliced in two Some beautiful looking charts on the 6z Then we end up with cold air very close by in Europe not a bad way to start in November
    10 points
  5. I said yesterday developments look ripe for scandi troughing and high pressure through mid atlantic, with coldest shots just to our east, and the models are showing this for next week, meaning hopefully much drier sunnier conditions for all, temps around average for the time of year, slightly below at times, with cold nights, widespread frost for northern parts Sunday night week. Longer term, signs heights will build behind the scandi trough, continuing the drier cold theme. Frost and fog in early November is ideal in my book.
    8 points
  6. If anything,it's seasonal and that's what I want!
    8 points
  7. 'Downgrade' etc.... Its a days worth of suites(mainly 12z.. With theEC 12Z yet to trickle! The main emphasis' should be a focus more on the tropospheric/stratospheric state' being modeled -cross suites-.. If its notable infer your looking for. The potantcy and alignment was always in doubt...and quite frankly 'still is'.... The broader spectrum looks as good as it gets on the doorstep of november!
    6 points
  8. Have our first snowfall forecast amounts from the fine mesh model we use for our location . The period Sun 6pm -Mon 6am... 27cm at 1750 absl, heaviest during this period . Snowfall will become moderate to light during the rest of Monday, more showery with cloud breaking. By Monday morning , freezing level will be at 750m. So looks like piste team will soon get to start on important base preparation with longer term lower temps expected as well which will help the process. Getting excited ! C
    6 points
  9. No charts to post at present , but the synoptic charts are really great for a big cool down over the UK and indeed for most of Europe. A few frosts even for southern Britain before Halloween makes it the first time in a few years that we have some really seasonal weather .! No point quibbling about record cold at this time of year.......I remember October 1997 picticularly the end of the month with record breaking cold frosts then November came along with some sickly mild weather..,..We should be happy with the model output.......
    5 points
  10. 5 points
  11. I think the most important thing here is that whatever model you look at, Europe is about to turn decidedly cold. A problem we've had in the past few winters is that Europe (at least the West) has been rather mild, so whenever we did manage to scrape an Easterly it wasn't particularly cold. Thanks Euro High. If we can get cold air into Europe and increase the snow cover, which it looks like we will, then we could be in a better position with heights being further North across Scandinavia this year. The continuous modelled splitting of the Vortex/Cross Polar flows is encouraging, but
    5 points
  12. For me I just love the dark nights being cold and crisp, as the pas few years it's just been wet and mild. I had a feeling this winter would start different, not that I'm predicting a 62-63 repeat, the feel of the charts looks far from normal which for me indicated there is more chance of the extreme happening one way or another. Yeah, not technical but with Ophelia etc the atmosphere seems from from it's normal state which is only a help rather than a hindrance. Obviously it could, and probably will, be another mild, wet winter but as long as things seem volatile then that volatility co
    5 points
  13. Im not even going to dream big. 1 day of snow accumulating to 3-4 inches would be a better winter than the last 4 combined.
    5 points
  14. A quick look at the ecm this morning albeit there no great changes from the previous run. By 12 Friday the high cell is over Ireland with the cut off upper low to the south west in mid Atlantic beginning to stir. But the high quickly comes under pressure from a trough tracking east via Iceland which is north of Scotland which initiates a fresh north west flow across the UK by midday Saturday. The low then intensifies and tracks swiftly SE to be over the south Baltic by 06 on Sunday as high pressure once again surges north to the west of the UK. This will veer the wind over the UK norther
    5 points
  15. Are there signs of the models getting closer to agreement for early November? ECM GFS GEM . Definitely looks colder for everyone in these charts - might be windy as well but the best thing about it is that it should put a stop to the incessant rain we've endured for the last six weeks in this part of the world. I'm fed up with soggy weather and a cold snap with crisp mornings is the perfect forecast at this time of year.
    5 points
  16. Good post Bobbydog It seems people are wanting snow on there doorstep....in October and a repeat of Oct 2008,this is very rare in our neck of the woods and there is plenty of time yet anyways,back on topic,i have been keeping an eye on strat proceedings and here is the 10 and 30 hpa temps over the north pole,yes not much of a warming as of yet but there is a slight uptick there 10 and 30 hpa zonal mean zonal winds and as you can see on the bottom right the oranges(if i am reading these charts right) marking a drop off in wind speeds but i would like to see reds in there but
    4 points
  17. GFS up to its all tricks again backtrack city lol, first Northerly clips Scotland which was modelled and now the second Northerly which modelled to hit for days goes pete tong another clipper for Scotland and east coast Up the GARDEN PATH WE GO
    4 points
  18. and gets stuck to your leg
    4 points
  19. Spot on look at how many garden paths we been up over the last few years or more. But I suppose it's very possible what with hurricanes galore and east QBO and declined solar cycle perhaps just perhaps we maybe lucky. I won't hold my breath though. Although there's no doubt the Atlantic is not full on so far we shall see as we enter November let's hope split vortex might benefit towards a decent stratospheric warming event. Already you can see with in 2 days the deeper cold further east. Although frost and fog will feature which I think is better than blow torch winter
    4 points
  20. After a day off, the ECM clusters are back online. No clusters suggesting anything exceptionally cold, TBH, but the Euro slug is definitely off the menu in the short-term.
    4 points
  21. Text book cross-pole split. V-good/favourable wave activity.....
    4 points
  22. For those that know and can remember these things, I just wondered how similar the current set up is to November last year? Particularly the background signals? The reason I ask is that last November we saw snow here in Leeds and I thought this is a great set up for the Winter to come. Of course then we hardly saw another flake for the rest of winter and no more lying snow. Is there anything in the models to suggest this cold/cool snap will be anything other than a little blip before the PV gets organised and we are back to business as usual?
    4 points
  23. Well *IF* the GFS is to be believed, the 0c Isotherm will be draped across the UK for over a week starting on the 1 November, so we should see some chilly temperatures. Whilst not cold enough for snow in low lying areas, the Scottish ski resorts should get off to a pretty decent start to their season. What's noticeable is that on the face of it the charts seem to to scream cold, such as this at 192 However, as it's so early in the season the uppers aren't as cold as you would imagine, we get -6 uppers over Scotland for a very short time but nothing colder. There j
    4 points
  24. I thought you guys might like this. So a guy elsewhere (obviously far more capable than i) has actually found a way to match as many areas of the ocean as normal to various telleconections and came up with this (the forecast cold spell in the US will also mean his October forecast will come out pretty well).. And the years he likes to make that of course are generally good.. 1932 (x2), 1943 (x3), 1944 (x3), 1996 (x3), 2005 (x3), 2007 (x3), 2008 (x2), 2012 (x1) From a CET point of view the only bad winter is 2007/2008 (though it mainly Jan and Feb that were bad). It's also
    4 points
  25. In the short term it looks a done deal for transition to cooler/perhaps colder shots via atlantic ridge placement. Dragging in north/north-westerly flow... Medium term: perhaps a more defined notable shot' via sharpening of alignment introducing a more elongated northerly plunge countrywide!... Some will argue' that-the tropospheric/stratospheric vortex(polar) being in disaray at such early stages is premature' for winter.... Personaly i could'nt like it any better atm..small waving dissallowing organisation at this particular juncture screams possibilites' at crucial winter poi
    4 points
  26. Apologies for the problems overnight and this morning, we've found the cause now (disk failure). While we put a fix in place, there may be the odd period (of a few minutes of downtime) during the next hour or so.
    4 points
  27. The anomalies of late have all been in the same ball park but struggling to come to complete agreement over the pattern in the Atlantic so need to still keep that in mind when making a quick assessment of the way forward from this evening’s outputs. In the ten day period the overall pattern is strong ridge Alaska (continuing WAA into the Arctic), The main vortex lobe N. Canada/NW Greenland (and becoming the main player) with cold trough south through N. America with subsidiary lobe Franz Joseph and a negatively tilted trough into eastern Europe. Associated with this is less amplificatio
    3 points
  28. SEVERE DOWNGRADE ALERT Not only have all the ops now abandoned the Northerly, the GEFS are already showing a marked change as well only 100 hrs into the run.
    3 points
  29. Very little fog here this October, signs that my bin lid will only freeze 28 times.
    3 points
  30. God I hate Winter but if we are going to have one, I want to do it properly. Can't stand months of wind, rain and 12-13 degrees.
    3 points
  31. The seasons seem to come around so quickly on NW. What with a weakening easterly QBO , WAA flooding into the Arctic via Fairbanks and Mars going into aretrograde orbit, a fine early Spring is definitely, or rather potentially, on the cards.
    3 points
  32. Just discussion on what the Model Outputs are showing in here please, There are the Model ramp and winter thoughts/hopes threads already open for anything other. Thanks please continue.
    3 points
  33. It's an age thing. Sadly it's unlikely to improve from now on. Well this is going to feel rather chilly, if it comes off, especially for those of us in the NE.
    3 points
  34. Snow's almost into the Baltic States now. Good increase in ice-cap too
    3 points
  35. It was the late 1980s when the AMO began to shift into its warm phase (I'm sure the run of warmer winters afterwards is no coincidence) - I think it's beginning to shift back into the cold phase right now, so perhaps not too much longer to wait for some better winters + we have the solar minimum coming. Colder winters tend to occur just after minimum (obvious exceptions aside) - perhaps because the ocean surface anomaly patterns (resulting from zonality over the previous winter seasons) initially fight the atmospheric pattern (more favoured to blocking during the minimum). I have a theory
    3 points
  36. Those were the days. I was like a whippet on speed
    2 points
  37. Elvis thought he was the King, 'nuff said
    2 points
  38. Pics, we want pics of Damistuff!
    2 points
  39. Question is, how deep will the indices (very snooty pedantic smiley) be? Edit: I note Moki has also mentioned it before me - smart bottom
    2 points
  40. So thankful for another lovely day, so much work done on the flat, still got all the windows open even though it's getting dark. And Daphne has been sunbathing this afternoon..... Are fellow gardeners harvesting all vulnerable things this weekend? Still got some chillis in a cold frame but I think I'll get them in before the cold temp arrive next week.
    2 points
  41. you could also argue the very cold winter of 1939/40 ushered in a colder period that lasted until the very mild winter of 87/88..since then the weather has flipped to a much milder regime.
    2 points
  42. This guy knows his stuff...
    2 points
  43. A lovely autumn day with plenty of bright sunshine and a partly cloudy sky. The temperature today is 18 C and the wind strength is 2.5 mph WNW .
    2 points
  44. As ever the weather loves to be unpredictable. So firstly our current anomolies are at -1.4 and -0.8 respectively. However.. The westerlies (probably MJO related) have completed their first full cycle since at least April. However.. Sub-surface anomolies are now very strong and still getting colder. .. Seems to me like this is either a last gasp or we are seeing a game of chicken, if we get another surge in the trades for a few weeks then we are going full Nina with those sub-surface anomolies. If we see repeated MJO cycles, the atmosphere may
    2 points
  45. Pep Guardiola has blamed the match ball for City failing to beat Wolves in normal time The ball used is the same as what the Championship, League One & League Two use
    2 points
  46. Definitely one of the most memorable weather events. Looking at the archives Im sure it was a lobe of the vortex dive-bombing into the UK
    2 points
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