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Showing most liked content on 25/10/17 in all areas

  1. 22 likes
    Very intriguing question. Firstly I will show the modelling in a different light, compared to the determ models. This is the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System) model, which is actually a combo between GEFS and GEPS. Comparing it to EPS, provides a very useful outlook IMO, especially for longer range modelling. First the next 7 days worth of 500mb anomalies. Then the first 7 days of November. Big contrast between the ridge influence in Wk 1 and then the cold snap/trough coming over in Wk 2. Lots of others have pointed this out, but just showing it a little differently. Now for the question. The NAO is currently going into a negative phase. Beyond the 2-3rd Nov, it is expected to climb to positive neutral figures. I am not sure whether it is going to continue for a proper +NAO phase. The MJO is currently entering Phase 7. These phases (6+7) are deemed to the best for a -NAO(+10 days), which is occurring. The relationship with Scandi highs and Atlantic ridges and MJO is poor. EPS and GEFS (Bias-Corrected) MJO RMM plots above. The EPS shows a rapid decline to neutral MJO during Phase 7. GEFS shows a slower decline, entering the neutral realm at Phase 1. POAMA and the Canuck models agree with EPS, JMA is in between the main models. For longer range forecasts, the POAMA model provides a probabilistic (chance of MJO Phase) forecast for the MJO: For 11-15 Nov, 50-70% Neutral, 10-30% Phase 3. For 16-20 Nov, 50-70% Neutral, 10-30% Phase 1. For 21-25 Nov, 50-70% Neutral. For 26-30 Nov, 50-70% Neutral, 10-30% Phase 2. Overall this means that MJO will likely remain neutral over November, and if it strengthens later in the month, it is likely to be in Phases 1-4. Which correlates with a +NAO(+10 days). So in my opinion, we may see a +NAO setup come around in the 2nd or 3rd weeks of November (emphasis on the may). But I haven't looked at the PV, or any other climate driver, except for the MJO and NAO, in proper detail. It's kinda rushed, because it's getting late night here in Aus. I will have a proper longer range look tomorrow, provided the forum doesn't crash .
  2. 10 likes
    Vortex sliced in two Some beautiful looking charts on the 6z Then we end up with cold air very close by in Europe not a bad way to start in November
  3. 6 likes
    Success doesn't always mean material wealth,it can be defined by other factors. Just once a post from you not negative? Nah that would be impossible wouldn't it
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    In the short term it looks a done deal for transition to cooler/perhaps colder shots via atlantic ridge placement. Dragging in north/north-westerly flow... Medium term: perhaps a more defined notable shot' via sharpening of alignment introducing a more elongated northerly plunge countrywide!... Some will argue' that-the tropospheric/stratospheric vortex(polar) being in disaray at such early stages is premature' for winter.... Personaly i could'nt like it any better atm..small waving dissallowing organisation at this particular juncture screams possibilites' at crucial winter point..... And northern hemisphercaly its easy to clasp' the pressure the beast is under..... Long may that continue!!!!
  6. 3 likes
    I tend to agree W'P. I think that sometimes a persons starting baseline can have a profound effect on their attitude to work etc. I think that the definition of poverty is now different to that in the 60's and 70's. Even back then you were aware of the difference between yourself and some of your friends ,insofar as their parents could afford to keep them on at school and thence to University ,whereas we had to leave and get a job because our mothers needed the money. I think that it hardened my attitude to life in general . The old saying goes," Money doesn't buy happiness, which is true to an extent, but you are bl....dy miserable if you have a pile of bills without the means to pay them. I would advise any youngster who doesn't go on to further education to try and learn a trade, it has served me well for the last 40 years. The one thing I have learned is that nobody owes you anything it's up to you to make the best of the hand that you have been dealt.
  7. 3 likes
    SEVERE DOWNGRADE ALERT Not only have all the ops now abandoned the Northerly, the GEFS are already showing a marked change as well only 100 hrs into the run.
  8. 3 likes
    The seasons seem to come around so quickly on NW. What with a weakening easterly QBO , WAA flooding into the Arctic via Fairbanks and Mars going into aretrograde orbit, a fine early Spring is definitely, or rather potentially, on the cards.
  9. 3 likes
    It was the late 1980s when the AMO began to shift into its warm phase (I'm sure the run of warmer winters afterwards is no coincidence) - I think it's beginning to shift back into the cold phase right now, so perhaps not too much longer to wait for some better winters + we have the solar minimum coming. Colder winters tend to occur just after minimum (obvious exceptions aside) - perhaps because the ocean surface anomaly patterns (resulting from zonality over the previous winter seasons) initially fight the atmospheric pattern (more favoured to blocking during the minimum). I have a theory (never had time to do the research to validate though) that proper easterly outbreaks are much less likely to get as far as the UK during the the warm AMO - partly because of the warmer N Sea, which increases the chances that shortwaves form and prevent the real cold from arriving, especially down here. Another theory is that when the pattern shifts into the cold AMO phase again, it will coincide with a notably cold W European winter during the switch; that should at least get tested in the next decade.
  10. 2 likes
    Yes,my bad,i was thinking it was high pressure forgive me,still learning about the strat the ECM is following the GFS,still,i am looking forward to the frost's if nowt else.
  11. 2 likes
    So thankful for another lovely day, so much work done on the flat, still got all the windows open even though it's getting dark. And Daphne has been sunbathing this afternoon..... Are fellow gardeners harvesting all vulnerable things this weekend? Still got some chillis in a cold frame but I think I'll get them in before the cold temp arrive next week.
  12. 2 likes
    I'll now it's bad when the dog gets stiff ......
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    A bad decision, theft of ideas, a lousy bank (RBS?), health issues, simply not plain up to it. Anything can affect success. The best will dust off and start again but for some a failure is crushing. For others, the only reward for working harder is a bigger shovel. Everyone on here is reasonably intelligent (and I do mean that kindly) but not everyone has the ability or capacity to better themselves by more than a few points. Sometimes even the best need a lucky break and be in the right place at the right time. A lot also depends on how you measure success, is it a PhD? writing a good book? Looking after a an aged relative with compassion, decency and dignity? Fo some with mental health issues it is getting out of bed in a morning. A decent society should be inclusive, celebrate entrapanureship but also look after those less able. When life just becomes about money and stuff it is very, very shallow.
  15. 2 likes
    A lovely autumn day with plenty of bright sunshine and a partly cloudy sky. The temperature today is 18 C and the wind strength is 2.5 mph WNW .
  16. 2 likes
    If you are including me, for the avoidance of doubt, I don't consider hard work an anathema. But nor do I view it as an overarching virtue or the road to nirvana given the current low wage economy.
  17. 2 likes
    Doesn't mean you can either. That's a myth. Hard work increases your chances, but you could work really, really, really hard - much harder than everyone else - and things could actually get worse for you. 'If you work hard, you can be a success'....'Everyone can be a success if they work hard' just isn't true. Nothing to do with blaming people; it's just reality.
  18. 2 likes
    Definitely one of the most memorable weather events. Looking at the archives Im sure it was a lobe of the vortex dive-bombing into the UK
  19. 1 like
    Eastern-seaboard/alaskan'ridge 2010-NOVEMBER.... #ARCHIVES gfs.....#suite.... Favorable eastern lobe pv. .....
  20. 1 like
    You're not going mad! It was there on phones up to an update this summer. Since then, we've been looking at ways to get it back in, but haven't found one as yet. Hopefully we will soon.
  21. 1 like
    That was info members added in themselves rather than automatically appearing
  22. 1 like
    This basically proves that the Tories are fundamentally racist / xenophobic. There is no logical reason not to devolve immigration to Scotland; as an independent legal jurisdiction, separate visas and enforcement would be easy. To not devolve it can only be racism, both against Scots, and of course foreign people. I mean to hate non-blood and soil English people so much you even use what powers you have them stop coming to neighboring countries?
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    Hello again Wierpig, You are correct to an extent about working hard and training CAN lead to self-advancement, but it is by means a certainty for everyone. What about those who have been through the education on special needs. There will unfortunately be some of those that be unable to advance on to better things. They will only be able to progress so far as their ability enables them. It is not to decry their efforts in any way, and relations should be proud of them based on the effort and advancement made. Unfortunately they would never be in the frame for a top management job even if they worked and studied 24 hours a day. It is simply impossible. Kind Regards Dave
  25. 1 like
    Yep hopefully it reverts back to Mondays run but cant see but you never know, would settle for some dry cool frosty Mornings all the same under a nice high.
  26. 1 like
    For the many, not the few http://thenational.scot/politics/15616938.Scottish_Labour_peers_top_the_list_of_Lords_who_take_huge_expenses_but_make_NO_contributions/
  27. 1 like
    Oi! Leave Cakie and Dami out of it, we are just good friends
  28. 1 like
    Banger index? How many sparkly rockets does it take to precipitate a snowflake?
  29. 1 like
    Just back from the game at the Emirates with the boy (his first away game, bit of an eye-opener for him, lol). Suffice to say, the usual bottle job from a ref at a big ground: a stonewall red card and penalty ignored, and Jack Wheelchair allowed to get away with murder. But we should have put the game away in the 2nd half anyway: so many chances missed.
  30. 1 like
    Surely you are not projecting yours and wp's self-congratulatory individual experiences onto the population at large? As far as I understand, younger generations are worse of, (materially anyway) than their parents.
  31. 1 like
    13.3 to the 24th 2.3 above the 61 to 90 average 2.2 above the 81 to 10 average
  32. 1 like
    He looks more like Catweazle to me Pete
  33. 1 like
    I've just read the comments (daft thing to do, I know). All I can say is I can imagine that, had they lived in Germany in the late-30s, they'd have been contacting the SS to inform on the Jews next door. As a graduate (albeit in a science subject rather than Politics or Philosophy), some of the sneering and thinly-veined hatred of Universities, students and everything that advanced study represents feels like a personal attack.
  34. 1 like
    Is it supposed to be getting cold? As long as it's not just cold bloody rain.
  35. 1 like
    Hello Weirpig, Yes there is it is "Strong and Stable within touching distance" May. Seriously though in answer to your question I do not believe there is. To my mind it should be the most influential woman, To me colour is totally immaterial. In fact i am against all such awards as I find them meaningless. How does one measure influence and the effect it has. To give an example a dedicated teacher in a deprived area could be influential to a large number of youngsters, but we would not tend to hear about them. On the other hand, someone who has access to the media machine is more likely to receive votes. Kind Regards Dave
  36. 1 like
    It depends. If you're talking about the difference between a 400m hillside and a 300m valley you're probably right, but comparing a 400m hillside with sub-100m lowlands? I'm not so sure. Alston itself is in a valley anyway - that of the South Tyne - but it's "only" at 300m (I'm guessing Ian lives somewhere nearby like Nenthead, which is arguably the snowiest settlement in England). Even so I imagine October frosts are more common there than in the Eden Valley.
  37. 1 like
    Fear not. There is Surely potential
  38. 1 like
    Doesn't frost formation favour valleys, though? So shouldn't by logic you more like to see a frost in a sheltered valley in October than 400m up a hillside if it is a clear night?
  39. 1 like
    Surely then we should look to the great storm of 1703 on that basis. Things have definitely changed and in all season imo but I’m not sure we can pinpoint 1 storm as a starting point.
  40. 1 like
    Top notch guide Nick thank you. Brilliant for amateurs like me to help me understand topics such as this in much more detail.
  41. 0 likes
    Had a blowout earlier,the first that i have ever had thought a bomb went off.
  42. 0 likes
    Loads in the news today Cambridge uni are taking measures to restrict the number of white authors who are included in the curriculum for English studies as it promotes racism bush is being chastised by women because he touched a girls bum and told her a dirty joke while is wife watched. And thirdly a black toilet paper advert as been called racist for using the slogan black is beautiful. Just another day in the asylum called planet earth. Not all related to uk politics. But the points still stand
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    It's been the one absolutely indisputable change in the last 20 years IMBY, even more so than the change in summers since 2007. Up until 1997 a frost free October was the exception rather than the rule, it wasn't unusual to have a run of frosty nights (remember that week in October 1997 with 4 or 5 in a row, including one -6C; Jan and Feb haven't managed that recently), and of course the frosty nights meant gorgeous clear, sunny days. The prevailing pattern then was: Summer ends at the beginning of Sept, first frosts of Autumn in October, in between 3 or 4 weeks of rain, cloud and boring 13-18C temps. Now it is: Summer ends at the beginning of Aug (if it turned up at all), first frosts in mid to late Nov, in between 3-4 months of rain, cloud and boring 13-18C temps. These warm Octobers have so often been horrendously dull. Except for 1995 (before the change- warm, dry, sunny Oct doesn't really happen any more either) and the early part of 2011, the warmth has been almost entirely at night with the days dull and often damp. That warm Halloween in London a couple of years ago, that "sunny warm" day in late Oct 2005- both were cloudy here. The last October that was anything like the old ones was 2003. That was the last time we got the frosty nights/clear days combination to any extent.
  45. 0 likes
    6.9. my b'day month always mild and wet on the day.
  46. 0 likes
    8.8c please - another mild one coming up I fear.
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    Yes we often had a shot of arctic air before October was out in many autumns of yesteryear so to speak bringing the first air frosts, the last 4 autumns have been devoid of any cold airstreams - quite unusual until November has arrived barely a frost. This autumn so far has been exceptionally cloudy with little ridge development -its been woeful for dry cool conditions with mist and fog so far, lets hope November can redeem it.
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    Right, start of the 4 Atlantic domination months, 4 above average months, 8.7C
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