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Showing content with the highest reputation on 30/09/17 in all areas

  1. I don't often post in the mod thread unless there is something truly interesting on offer, but am an avid follower and just wanted to thank those who have continued posting their assessments even through quieter periods, especially Knocker in recent weeks. Do keep this up even when the silly season gets going! Re models, it looks like another scenario of settling down in the first week of October. That'll be the third in a row that high pressure moves in, last year in particular. Perhaps some lovely sunny days to bring out the autumn colours so long as the high migrates sufficiently north
    10 points
  2. 6 points
  3. This weekend can best be described as Autumnal. Currently the main depression is south of Iceland with the UK in a south westerly airstream. Cloudy with showers in Wales and the south west spreading east through the day. North west England, N. Ireland and Scotland may well see the best of the sunny intervals.Late in the day the main low has drifted north and the next low and frontal systems, containing the absorbed Lee, are rapidly approaching from the west. By 12 Sunday the the new low is west of Ireland 977mb and the fronts have brought a fair amount of rain and quite strong wins to mo
    4 points
  4. I know it's right at the end of FI and has practically zero chance of happening but, looks like quite a potent arctic blast lining up in the GFS. Roll on winter!
    4 points
  5. Looking at this morning's GEFS and EPS mean anomalies and last night's NOAA there is little indication of any sign of anything apart from a continuation of changeable weather in the next 14 days. This doesn't of course preclude periods when the Azores HP may be briefly more influential with the surface high cell most likely to be parked to the south west So the general pattern in our neck of the woods is an upper low over N. Canada with associated trough Scandinavia giving a zonal westerly flow across the Atlantic with Azores struggling to push north. How successful it will be will be de
    3 points
  6. I'm not sure what your point is. You just seem to be arguing with me by agreeing with me. My point was England can't send in police to stop a referendum in Scotland. Not if Scots law says it's legit. Catalonia is not in that position; it is up against Spanish federal law and the enforcement of that. There is no 'federal' British law nor British courts nor police. Of course if the Scots courts ruled a referendum illegal and there were riots or something Scots police could call for help. However, English officers would still be accountable to Scottish commanders / the Scotti
    3 points
  7. The trend for the dead tree press at the moment however seems to be a way from even pretending to report facts toward a 'sod it we will just tell downright lies and wholly distort the truth', attitude. Much like the Express and its repeated front page weather coverage.
    3 points
  8. Draining of the swamp, presumably? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41450290
    3 points
  9. There's something for everyone on the Gfs 12z which shows some pleasant settled weather at times, especially further south with chilly nights bringing mist and fog patches and cold enough for a touch of frost in rural areas but there is also some chilly unsettled spells too, especially further north, possibly cold enough for some wintry ppn on the Scottish mountains at times. We are heading towards more interesting times for coldies if we get polar / arctic maritime incursions..hopefully there will be plenty of that during the coming months!
    3 points
  10. Snow on the way by the end of the Gfs 00z..
    3 points
  11. Nothing wrong with private forecasting companies The Met Office do a lot of great things, but many things need improvement on the public facing side of things. It infuriates me that, despite the Met Office being funded by the taxpayer, they hold onto so much data. The National Weather Service and NOAA in the US put them to shame.
    2 points
  12. That's very kind of them. I'd have been tempted to leave the Beeb in the lurch and show what happens when the private contractor lets you down. Edit: I might have a bee in my bonnet about this, and have an amazing love of the UK Met Office.
    2 points
  13. Blizzard alert!! The gfs develops a low in the circulation of the Iceland low in the vicinity of the front on Wednesday and intensifies it and whips it east into southern Norway bringing copious amounts of snow to that area Relax Sidney
    2 points
  14. I agree, the Catalans are a proud independent people with their own traditions and language - having spoken to some of them whilst over there I can sympathise with their position. There is not much difference between the Madrid government and No 10 at the moment in the manner they ignore the wishes of a sizable minority - they will not be able to quieten them by these tactics, only make them more determined - the hotheads amongst them have already tried to take the law into their own hands but that approach is wrong also and will only lead to unpleasant escalations as they had with the B
    2 points
  15. Sorry that is what you you said on your original post. Quote.There are no federal police either. Likewise English courts / officers do not have jurisdiction in Scotland. They do have jurisdiction in certain cases. Just wish you wouldn't twist a point to suit your specific agenda.
    2 points
  16. Erm, yes, but Police Scotland would need to ask for police England's help. A referendum in Scotland isn't a cross border case rather obviously. It's a 'Scotland only' case*. Scottish courts would not allow English officers to just march in and start closing down polling stations was my point; the English officers would be arrested by Scottish police. You are correct when it comes to e.g. a criminal fleeing to Scotland from England where an arrest warrant has been issued in England for a crime committed there. In a referendum case, if that was deemed 'illegal', the 'crime'
    2 points
  17. Yes, when dealing with matters Scottish it sits under Scots Law, led by Scottish judges.A little bit of Scots soil legally if you like. Similar to the Lockerbie trials in the Hague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103_bombing_trial Hence a referendum in Scotland is legal unless Scotland's judiciary says it's not. As we know, a narrow Leave in an advisory referendum = 'the people have spoken' by UK precedent, so that's all that's needed for Scottish independence from the UK union. An advisory referendum is perfectly legal; the Scottish government already hav
    2 points
  18. Spain / Catalonia and Scotland are not really comparable. Problem for the UK is Scotland is legally separate and there is no UK constitution. There is no such thing as British law nor a British constitutional court; the Spanish one is Catalonia's biggest problem. This is in a large part why Dave didn't do a Spain last time and England / rUK has always, albeit grudgingly at times, agreed Scotland has the right to choose. If it gets into a big legal argument, that must take place in Scotland's highest court before Scottish judges / under Scots law (Court of Session in Edinburgh or
    2 points
  19. A couple of off topic posts deleted. There are relevant threads for discussing climate change, although if your sole intention is to pay no attention to science then please stay away from those areas
    2 points
  20. https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/09/29/atlantic-depressions-bring-above-average-rain-for-some/amp/ It's been slightly above average here but nothing unusual. As for the above about the increase in rainfall, it's defo a trend alongside increases in temps and I'm sure I read somewhere about the last few years being far windier than normal too.
    2 points
  21. Not sure that a trial which took place 40 years ago really has any validity now. Cars, lighting, cities, human behaviour etc is radically different now to what it was back then. Personally, I'm happy for it to stay as it is. We still have the same amount of light no matter what we do, moving it around doesn't change much really.
    2 points
  22. Just pointing out hypocrisy in my usual style. I've heard the whole 'But if Scotland goes independent but stays in a union (EU) that's not independence! more times than I've had hot dinners (or legal highs). I'm a unionist with no time for petty nationalism, so it doesn't wash with me. I happily back an indy Scotland in the EU/EEA. However, someone can only call Scotland out on staying in the EU as that not being 'real independence' if they actively support and are campaigning for an end to the UK. That includes brexiters from England. If someone really supports 'pure' independ
    1 point
  23. Annnnnnnd....... I'm Back! A month later than usual, but strapping myself in for the Great British Annual Snow Hunt! I say it every year, but this year is the one... Another 2010 on its way!
    1 point
  24. Yep saw this last week. https://www.thespainreport.com/articles/1158-170927125740-catalan-police-ordered-to-close-and-occupy-polling-stations-in-catalonia-to-stop-vote-going-ahead Ask yourself: 'By what right do governments arrogate to themselves a monopoly on Force and Violence?' Arguably every community has a right o peacefully decide how and by whom it wants to be governed.].
    1 point
  25. I'm not sure why the warnings for wind and rain were posted in here? I don't have any time to read stuff or look at the charts much, so when I saw that there was activity in this thread, I thought there was a possibility of some convective weather, but none of which is related.
    1 point
  26. September 84 was cool overall, following a hot July and August. The October and early part of November was warmish that year. The winter that followed was freezing cold. This was the start of a run of cold winters, and poorer summers during the mid 80s
    1 point
  27. Sort of. The UK Supreme Court is the highest court in the UK for non Criminal matters so would make the final ruling on any legal matters should it get that far. You are right though it is not an 'English' court, rather a court that happens to be based in England. (and well worth a visit if anyone is ever in in London).
    1 point
  28. I find them a bit pointless as well they don't really add anything to the posts if you find them pointless annoying etc you can easily add him to your ignore list which will hide his posts unless they are quoted https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3631101 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3629910 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88243-model-output-discussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3630404 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/top
    1 point
  29. Yellow combines out in force this afternoon on the Black Isle. I hope none get stuck! Bizarre but just coincidence how most of our rain the last few days has been nocturnal. I think Moray (as in @Northernlights's patch) has been especially wet this last few weeks, just based on my occasionally obsessive radar watching. I was lucky to get back home from my ride today just as the sky opened briefly. We went to see Wind River this evening - I was looking forward to some procedural cop stuff in the snow but it's not like that at all, it was at times brutal, harrowing and intense, but st
    1 point
  30. Hello Nick The danger with this vote in Spain is not so much in the vote itself but the way, as you say, the Madrid based government is handling it. Barcelona and Catalonia of course being anarchist territory during the civil war, and since the death of Franco there has been a sort of silent conspiracy in Spain to never really talk about the war that ripped Spain to pieces. History is often raw. In Spain (a country I love for many reasons) it's full of under the surface volatility. Police interfering with democracy? Sends shivers down the spine anywhere but especially in Spain. Thi
    1 point
  31. Ryan Maue is my source of knowledge on this question. At -70 cold air convection enables hurricanes to evolve towards Cat 4. Current QBO state raises Tropospheric heights and provides opportunity to reach the colder convection I.e Maria Maue states that this is the base requirements for Pacific Super Typhoons. -70 C, followed by crucial 3-4 hours of eye temp increases to produce environment for CAT 5,5+. * This next section is my thoughts on the similarities in physical development of powerful Hurricanes to strong Polar Vortices. The colder the convection th
    1 point
  32. I've recently read a theory that, in the last 30 years, global warming has bloated the Azores High and other sub-tropical high pressure systems (the Hadley Cell) way beyond it's usual, historic autumn and winter latitudes. Looking at the models the last week I'd say that it's ready to form in it's autumn/winter/interesting-weather killing position once again. Even in poor summers the SE benefits from the over-inflation of the Azores high and its ridging into France and it is now pretty rare to get truly awful summers in the SE quarter of the UK these days. This is something I'm going to be loo
    1 point
  33. Once the weekend is out of the way the ecm has the Azores high pressure ridging north to the west of the UK but more of interest it has an upper trough centred near Greenland stretching a long way south west This spawns some very active lows in the region north east of Florida and one of them tracks quickly north east on a very strong jet which curves around the aforementioned ridge to pass close to northern Scotland 968mb 00 Thursday as explosive cyclogenesis takes place.Obviously this is a few days away but as it stands it could bring gales or severe gales to Scotland and also a fair wack of
    1 point
  34. The Spanish government have handled this terribly . Sending police in to stop people voting isn’t a good look for democracy. They’ve made the situation much worse and poured lots of fuel onto the fire .
    1 point
  35. Not a new concept. After all this country has just held a referendum on one of the most important decisions in my lifetime and the majority of the electorate and all of the leading lights of the Brexit campaign were clueless about what is involved regarding the complexities of leaving the EU and thus were devoid of any strategic policy on how to proceed when the blind voting was complete.
    1 point
  36. 1 point
  37. The Spanish Tories are doing enormous damage to Spain here; if they keep it up, they'll only increase support in Catalonia for independence. They should have learned the lesson from Scotland 2014 / Quebec #1 and #2; if you allow people to freely choose, then they'll most likely choose to Remain. If you do everthing to prevent them having free choice, they'll choose to leave. The EU cannot interfere in domestic politics lest it be undemocratic / authoritarian. It is not for the 27/8 to take sides in Catalonia. However, it has already said it would recognise a Yes vote. However, Spa
    1 point
  38. Yep, if this was Mid winter and I had faith in long range GFS I'd be quite exited looking at this!! Shame it's not, still, nice to see what "could" be!!
    1 point
  39. I'm rather jealous of the views my daughter enjoys from her new house in Rochester with a wonderful panarama over the town and the Medway estuary. But more importantly, it's a belter for weather watching. Here's one of the cumulus yesterday morning and she tells me storms are amazing!
    1 point
  40. Shame that the back end of this month has reverted to "summer extension" after a good start.
    1 point
  41. Thunderstorms in parts of the Caribbean look much more organised today. Potential tropical development in the coming days: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane-central
    1 point
  42. Was about to say the same thing. It would be totally idiotic to change anything based on that particular study.
    1 point
  43. Bear in mind that I was attending secondary school during the Sixties and finishing time was 4pm which was the norm for that time. So under GMT schoolkids were going home in the dark and all-year BST meant going home in the light. There was also far less traffic around back then and the standard of driving was very much higher (I passed my motorcycle test in May 1968). However nowadays schools finish around 3pm so schoolkids are going home in the light under both GMT or GMT+1.
    1 point
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