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The first Mention of a bartlett High this season. awaiting the mention of the 6z and 18z having missing data. the wheeling out of the Bom when thinks get hairy and the old quote that the met office hold the JMA in high regard. yep its nearly winter.

Firstly this morning a quick look at the outlook. ( just my take on it of course). Last night’s NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies, whilst not in complete agreement, are in the same ball park enough to indicate that the pattern change hinted at recently is under way. That means that the HP/trough axis with the negatively tilted trough in the eastern Atlantic has finally shifted east with the more traditional trough in the Greenland/Iceland area allowing the Azores to ridge in the vicinity of the UK. Thus the upper flow should back south of west with temps returning to around average, As always in these situations the detail will be dependent on where the surface high cell resides but certainly a quieter and drier period for much of the UK is the percentage play with the north still in the firing of systems slipping around the top of the HP. How long will this last? The indications are not that long although there is no good agreement vis the ext period so suffice it to say we would appear to be looking at a traditional N/S split scenario with a trough to the NW and the Azores to the SW On to the somewhat more pressing issues of the next few days. Today there is currently a west/east split with rain still around eastern parts which should clear as the morning progresses whilst the west is quite dry and bright albeit a few morning mist patches. A deep Atlantic low will arrive west of Ireland later with associated front and this front will track east across the UK through Thursday evening and Friday bring rain to most places. Saturday should be a reasonable day but as can be seen on the 12 fax things are about to go rapidly downhill with the next low poised out west accompanied by ex tropical storms Lee and Maria. If you transpose the jet onto that chart it will be just to the north of them and from the WSW around 170kts By 12 Sunday the low has tracked north east to be south of Iceland with the fronts over the UK bringing rain and strong winds, possibly gales in places, Lee has been absorbed in the general circulation so probably some tropical air in the mix. These fronts rapidly clear east but as the main low moves east the next front arrives (containing the remains of Maria) tracking south east overnight Sunday into Monday and this could well produce severe north westerly gales over Scotland in the early hours of Monday as the low is forced south east by the Azores surging to the west. From this point the high pressure becomes the main influence with the odd system creeping around the top but best left around the ten day period. So certainly a quiet drier spell with temps around average is on the cards later next week

If the gathering storm is to have a name beginning with B, surely it should be Brexit! :-)

Personally, unless posts are rammed full of them, I don't see an issue with the occasional use of gifs and the like to express some humour or whatever. I'm kind of hoping you're being ironic here? As if those using emoji apparently have 'damn all else to do' then what does that say about the person spending time moaning about emoji

Alot of uncertainty at the moment in very short-term timescales, all courtesy of ex tropical storm systems Lee and Maria. Difficult to call where these will track, and therefore who sees the heaviest of the rain. It is all rather messy. Into next week a ridge looks like developing and a cooler NW flow will envelop the country, before we see a more pronounced build of heights from the azores anchoring itself towards us. What happens thereafter again very uncertain, in my view I suspect there will be too much energy in the atlantic to allow any sustained settled spell, and the heights will be quickly squashed south wards with a westerly flow taking hold, but hoping we squeeze out a couple of dry sunny days with chilly nights and possible frost. All rather normal service for early October. Temps levelling out to near average.

Thought it would be handy to have a thread for discussing any un-named Atlantic lows coming our way through the autumn and start of winter. To get the ball rolling, we've a fairly active spell coming up, with ex-hurricanes Lee and Maria in the mix, nothing named as yet. Metoffice warnings have been issued for rain so far - this for the end of the weekend/start of next week. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-10-01 Apparently the East Midlands is in the warning area, at least in the special part of the East Midlands just east of Manchester

It seems it wasn"t our imaginations Scotland is getting wetter in the summer

I'm hoping we don't get a long run of boring mild cloudy days, mixed in with several days of rain throughout the coming winter. Much prefer some sun and drier conditions. Cold and dry.

That's true but it doesn't take much for the Azores high to move a bit further east and nest there for quite a while.

The melt season is over (thank God!). Time to start the refreeze thread

Significant trade wind surges have occurred in the Pacific as the atmosphere has maintained and strengthened a La Nina base state. The result for us has been enhanced westerlies. The current forecast for pressure rises is the result of a westerly wind burst forecast in the east pacific amplifying the downstream pattern. It's likely to be temporary though given the alluded to La Nina atmospheric coupling.

Traditional misty damp start but can't complain with the rest as after that it was the third warm, sunny day in a row here. Now raining and breezy but there's nothing wrong with a bit of that at the end of September

Extensive cloud cover over the UK tonight and chucking it down here. Aural oval looking good and magnetometers kicking off for anyone lucky enough to have clear skies. Possible aurora down as far as Scottish Borders, maybe beyond.

An unsettled start to October but it might not last long with high pressure shown to return by mid next week

Yes a wonderful day with combines on the go but yes you are correct some fields have been abandoned because of wet ground or the crop is so flat and sprouting and has very little value. The fact that the wet spell was so long and the crop very ripe it is collapsing with any wind or heavy rain.It"s a long time since I have seen Nairnshire with so much crop still not cut when it is so ripe. I think only 1985 would have been worse when there was still a lot of crop to cut in mid October. Another observation is that a lot of big units are stuggling trying to do large acreages with the minimal machinery based on say 50 working days.If however there only 20 dry days for working in they are in trouble. I am reminded of my old college economics lecturer in the seventies who said that when she went onto a farm where there should only be one combine and she found two,the first one was treated as a machinery cost and the second one as an insurance cost agaist bad weather and breakdowns. In the seventies there were twice as many combines in the north of Scotland as theoretically needed just to match the poor climate.Some of these lessons seem to have been forgotten today.

The Gfs 12z shows high pressure building in next week after an unsettled start, it briefly gives way to allow more changeable weather before pressure rises again bringing increasingly pleasant conditions, especially further south with warm sunny spells followed by chilly nights with mist and fog and perhaps slight frosts..to me this run plays out like the latest met office update which longer term sounds good for the most part, at least across the southern half of the uk.

Building up nicely now, with good ice gains.

ECM clusters show the detail behind that mean - not many options going against a longer build of heights in the direction of the UK, from D6 all the way out to D15. Likely to favour southern areas, but could spread to all. Of course, at this time of the year, we start to lose the correlation between "high pressure" and "warm", so the amount of sun/warmth will depend a lot on the final position of the high. Unlikely to be too muddy for walkers for much of the first half of October, then.

I'm in Rochester again this week and today was a lovely day to be in this part of the world - the satellite image at 16.40 showing most of Kent enjoying unbroken sunshine - and a top temp of 21C.

A wet start but a much clearer and brighter day followed thanks to a cleaner westerly wind. Still warm for the time of year which made for a very pleasant afternoon.

The Gfs 12z shows high pressure building in next week with very pleasant conditions, particularly further south and east where temperatures climb into the high teens to possibly low 20's celsius which would be pretty good for early october but there would be some chilly nights where skies clear with mist and fog and perhaps slight frosts in rural areas.

A wet and windy start to October but it doesn't last long with high pressure quickly building as the low pulls away

Or Boris

Well beggars can't be choosers I suppose . Even a brief spell of very cold temperatures with appreciable snow cover that sticks around for more than a few hours would be a bit of a relief after the previous 4 Winters. But lets be honest if that happened we'd soon be craving another bout. Keeps us interested I suppose. Anyway I don't think it's worth putting too much stock in what this months CET happens to be. I mean what's been happening day to day is probably what really matters, rather than some arbitrary average figure based on a specific 30 day timeline. And I'm still for now holding out hope that a new cluster of cold and snowy Winters is not far round the corner, with the possibility that this coming Winter could be the initial one .

Oh, I should have known better than to trust the tabloids!

Looking at forecasts for weather and aurora, think I will head as far east as I can and take up station overnight at either Crail or St. Andrews. Last night was a total washout. Kp hit 7 last night and is still currently running at 6. Just hoping the cloud keeps off till morning.

Can we re-name this set up Bartlett-ish then? - sorry OT I know!

13.7 to the 27th Bang on the 61 to 90 average 0.5 below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________________________ Current high this month 15.1 to the 5th

At day 10 it's difficult to say owing to the fact the Ecm has a tendency to over amplify only to be more progressive again on subsequent runs. I hear what you're saying re a Bartlett High though, from being our summer friend to winter foe.

Maria weakens to a tropical storm as she moves into the Atlantic

Nee naw nee naw... I know you dislike the swear filter, but if you really dislike it that much then there are other forums available

It goes without saying the ecm is at odds with the gfs from as early as late Sunday. It has the fronts sweeping through the UK Saturday evening through Sunday bringing heavy rain and possible severe gales in the west. They are into southern Norway by 06 Monday but it has the declining Maria tracking further north and it tracks it south east across England on Monday bringing heavy rain to England and Wales as it does so. And it doesn't have the surging Azores high pressure post transit thus the rest of the week remains in a westerly unsettled regime with only the far south receiving any benefit from HP. and even that is tenuous. As is fairly obvious next week is still in the melting pot.

We've met many New Holland yellow monsters filling the wee narrow back roads up here from hedge to hedge... the very sight of one makes the husband swear . Re electronics, maybe a bit like modern cars which are great, but if that computer thingy goes then the whole car goes. My sons got pocket money and suntans in school holidays stane pickin NL, kept them busy and out of mischief. When they were older they graduated to grouse beating, but that wasn't much fun. Eldest got told off by one snooty wee erk to call him sir when he spoke to him, and after that I refused to let them go again.

Maybe but dust getting onto any electronic sensors nowadays seems to cause just as many issues and on this areas stony ground any machine that swallows one that has been missed still ends up in a mess.Less people to make sure all stones are removed. Yellow New Holland combines from that era till today still have a reputation for reliabillty. providing they are well serviced and stored dry for the rest of the year. Water in bearings and severe frost are bad news.

Going to Iceland Monday.... Tuesday/Wednesday nights looking promising as high pressure ridges over the area between systems...if I see anything I'll be posting photos/videos... if not from Halifax and far ne Canada the week after...

Looks good for a traditional benign autumn spell. Small chance of dragging up some summery temps, but I'm thinking more about frosts.

When I was oop in the Heelands, hedgehogs were frequent visitors (I suspected they were after the hens' eggs?) to the garden...But, anyways, I used to put saucers of milk out for them, as they're such docile and friendly creatures... Then again, they can be a rather prickly subject...

Tropical storm Maria is once again hurricane Maria.

A quick look at this evening's ecm After the Friday front and rain clears the fronts from the next low, situated about 500km west of Scotland by 1800 Saturday, are just impacting the west of Ireland. At the same tine ex tropical storms Maria and Lee are beginning to swing north east in the western Atlantic just south of the strong WSW jet which is even around 100kts at the 500mb level The low and fronts then track east bringing heavy rain and strong westerly wings Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday. Quite possible gales in western areas. By 00 Monday the fronts are well clear and the UK is in a strong north westerly which could still give gales in Scotland. By this time Lee has lost it's identity but Marie has latched onto the jet, just, in mid Atlantic and runs east then south east over Cornwall en route to France as it too loses it's identity. From this point some amplification occurs with the main upper trough slipping south east into central Europe whilst the Azores ridges in the vicinity of the UK settling things down a tad by mid week after the hiatus of the weekend.

The Ecm 12z shows an improving picture next week following an unsettled sunday and to a lesser extent monday, from midweek high pressure builds in nicely..warms up too..by the end of the run there is another surge of high pressure from the azores which would be very good news longer term..fingers crossed!

Tut ,tut

Not sure that a trial which took place 40 years ago really has any validity now. Cars, lighting, cities, human behaviour etc is radically different now to what it was back then. Personally, I'm happy for it to stay as it is. We still have the same amount of light no matter what we do, moving it around doesn't change much really.

Longer term, the GEFS 6z mean looks encouraging with high pressure gradually becoming more influential, especially further south with increasingly calm settled conditions with pleasantly warm sunny spells and chilly nights with mist and fog.

Can we please stop bickering ☺ Some members post what particular charts are showing on each run, While others explain the variables and the most likely outcomes given the over-all data available. Just something to consider to save any confusion.

amusement? I suppose it depends on whether you are a serious scientist or just a less knowledgeable bystander.

The Ecm 00z is a pleasant surprise this morning with high pressure building in strongly during next week..I think most of us would be happy with this in early october!

ECM quickly whistles the low through before building a nice anticyclone to settle things down: Also turning very warm with 850s above 12c: Temps into the low 20s, with overnight fog more than likely given it will be October! Very different to the 12z last night.....more runs needed!

Ha ha ha !! this comment is hilarious, the crystal ball is out early this year I see. A bit of reverse psychology, I like it!!!

.... yes there is, when its sourced from a cold direction. nothing worse then cold wet, i prefer snow to that.

You'll get higher temperatures during the night during radiative cooling events (calm, clear nights), but that's probably a good thing as in my experience, the shield of the Oregon units actually tend to under-read on occasion as the casing cools quicker than the atmosphere similarly to how a car windscreen ices over on a night not quite down to freezing. The shield will be an improvement but I found a better design on my Oregon backup station was a slightly larger shield with small holes in to allow airflow. That way you don't end up trapping heat inside during warm and sunny days. Despite all this though, it still over-reads on average by around 3C on hot summer days. That's compared to a 24/7 aspirated Davis VP2 with custom 12v fan though, so for a cheap station its not too bad.