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Hello 2010!!!

I suspect I may have been grabbing a little at straws last night leaning very much towards the latest EPS without NOAA being that keen. Need to wait and see what today brings forth for the medium term Meanwhile today and tomorrow are not looking at all bad for most areas. With a light S/SE drift temps in some areas could reach 23C and with the front fizzling out it could be quite sunny once early morning mist has cleared. The caveat to this is that by tonight and tomorrow morning the next low will arrive west of Ireland and the associated fronts encroaching so wind and cloud will increase from the west as tomorrow progresses but still time for most places away from the west to have a pleasant day. The aforementioned fronts cross the country later on Weds and overnight to be in the North sea by 12z Thursday with the next depression 970mb and associated fronts to the west of Ireland. The low drifts up towards Iceland and the fronts, after some transient ridging Thursday, bring more rain to most areas on Friday.before clearing into the North Sea by evening. Thus by 12 Saturday we again have transient ridging but ex tropical storms Maria and Lee are girding their loins out west. They quickly get organised and form a deepening depression that tracks quickly ENE on a very strong upper flow and could well bring gusts in excess of 70 kts to northern Scotland in the early hours of Monday.Windy and wet for the rest of the UK on Sunday as well But it must be stressed that this depends on the precise track and intensity of the low and this is not as yet anywhere near definitive and for the moment the more southerly track and the duck southeast does appear to be off the table. . The low clears away to the NE as quickly as it arrived leaving the Azores to ridge in but best left here. So all in all after a good couple of days then changeable with rain and gales over the weekend and beginning of next week.

Storm Bonzo dog doo dah band I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

It is usual, that ex-hurricaneTSname does keep its name, if it reaches UK shores. So if the end of the weekend low was just remnants of Maria, it would be labelled ex-Maria. However, there is Lee in the mix too. the Express jumping the gun, again, is not helpful

Uh oh fb... here we go again. Time to come out of hibernation soon. Goodbye sleep, wife and children for 4 months whilst I'm chasing a phantom Greeny High

For another variation on a theme the gfs this evening does not have Lee and Maria merging but gradually tending to lose their identity and ending up has frontal features, one down Ireland and the other further to the west, by 12 Sunday with the main low just SW of Iceland. Still potential for a very windy and wet Sunday/Monday particularly in Scotland (60-70Kts gusts) and possible developments on the front(s).

Winter is over... https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/early-forecast-warns-bitter-arctic-chill-uk

December U.K. – Colder than normal *fingers crossed*

It looks like there will be increases every day till the end of September.

As I said earlier nothing definitive about next weekend.and ex tropical storms as yet The ecm is completely different to the gfs even at this range. By 12 Saturday it has developed the nest system swinging in from the west far more than the gfs and has a low NW of Ireland with fronts and rain into same, The fronts sweep across the UK developing little disturbances as they (it) go thus a very wet and windy Saturday night and Sunday before the fronts reach the North Sea. At the same time Lee has lost it's identity to the west and Maria a way west of Cornwall and is about to drift south east and do the same.

I suspect I may have been grabbing a little at straws last night leaning very much towards the latest EPS without NOAA being that keen. Need to wait and see what today brings forth for the medium term Yes I think it needs aday or two to be more sure of just which way the anomalies will go. Although the EC-GFS outputs have twice this month ourdone NOAA, something that never used to happen.

Both ec ops and ctrl have quite a potent storm sun/mon kind of time. Mean speeds of 40-50 mph in the south, but eps puts the winds anywhere from Scotland to north France.

Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia is showing signs of trouble. Last erupted in 1964 and caused a worldwide drop in temperature of between 0.1-0.4c. It would need to blow quite soon I would imagine if its going to be a good backup for good winter weather setups over there

Hello Folks , the Calm before the storm...Perhaps , but a few days of benign weather before we enter a very turbulent and aggressive jet streamLate weekend into early next week the potential of a major Autumn storm , remnants of the ex hurricanes etc. A strong jet stream of 200 mph plus may well lead us into the most stormy Autumn storm for a good many years .

Maria the larger but weaker of the two hurricanes, whereas Lee much smaller but currently stronger with a good visible eye. Looks like they will meet/combine over the weekend and head straight for the UK. Lee may still be just about at hurricane strength when their two systems collide. This will then subsequently be known as storm Brian here in the UK, assuming it stays strong enough. I hope that any potential impact warnings aren't made confusing to the viewer during the BBC's changeover from Met Office to Meteo Group which is also happening this weekend. The Met Office actually create the names for our Atlantic storms so It will be interesting to see what sort of warnings Meteo Group give out.

Evening All , Massive differences between gfs and ecm at the T+96 to 120 timeframe All I can say is "WOW" gfs clears exMaria into the jet stream much quicker than ecm , will be interesting viewing in the next few days , all I can say is be prepared .....

Haha. Well turn me over, slap me on the a**e and call me a lunatic.

Typical start to Autumn then. Boo. Was hoping for a little more lovely days of sun and warmth. Oh well.

The ecm is more or less sticking to the last run where it doesn't engage either Lee or Maria with the main trough and has them south of the Jet. Lee loses it's identity and Maria slips south east and does likewise The main impact on the UK is from the main trough which tracks east and deepens riding on the jet The associated fronts with heavy rain and very strong winds impact the UK Saturday evening through Sunday with the center of the low 974mb adjacent to the Hebrides by 18 Sunday. Needless to say the detail is still a long way from being done and dusted.

No storms forecasted today but spotted two huge well defined cb's with a clearly defined anvil on the left one an hour ago over north east london. Can just see them through the smog...

The Daily Express? That sort of thing seems right up their ally

That article is atrocious: who owns the weather.com domain?

We ought to name a storm after him - Storm Pillock?

Nathan Rao... What a surprise!!

Three pics from an Aveyron garden:

unlikely, as i hate cold, i feel cold, i can cope far better with heat, which is why i like what i do. i dare say others who can cope with cold feel differently. doesnt it make all this pointless moaning about it seem rather daft though? (yes i do include myself in this criticism)

you clearly dont work outside.... warm rain is just that... warm! , cold rain makes you even colder, its not like working in frost. i talk from vast experience here lol

Latest GFS has the CET climbing back to 13.9C by the 29th, but dropping to 13.8C after a chilly final day. I'd say anything from 13.6C to 14.0C is still possible before corrections and 13.3 to 14.1C after corrections. A warmer second half than first now looking unlikely.

Looking chilly Weds night for N.Ireland and cold for Britain Saturday night.

The danger with La Nina is always that you get tropical subsidence and stronger than average sub-tropical high pressure zones enhancing the westerly flow and pressure gradient. My personal thoughts are that the -QBO in combination with lower solar activity and the relaxation of the PDO (neutral or negative) will tip the balance towards a -AO/-NAO winter albeit i don't expect Oct-Dec to be especially cold. If we are going to get a <1C below average winter month then it will be Jan-March.

I was about to post on the same lines. The EPS anomalies tonight are also indicating a pattern change with Atlantic trough weakening and the Azores pushing north in the vicinity of the UK. And equally to the point in the ext period (can't post) it rapidly loses the strong ridging to the east so a weakening Atlantic flow backing south west with the Azores building wand positive anomalies over the Atlantic and Greenland with temps over the UK edging above average The GEFS is nodding in that direction

Here is a select few i have just got off the clips from last night

The Ecm 12z shows some welcome respite from all the changeable / unsettled weather later in the run with high pressure building / ridging in during early october.

DOUBLE HURRICANE HELL: Giant Atlantic SUPERSTORM set to smash into Britain NEXT week http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/858639/Storm-Brian-path-update-latest-models-Met-Office-weather-warning-hurricane-forecast-track

It needs to be be Lee maria or Maria Lee. Otherwise it will be Brian nee Maria .........

15.8C overcast and miserable, which is quite fitting, because that's exactly how I feel about turning 34!! Boo Hoo to growing up On the plus side it's a great excuse to drink beer on a Monday evening

Yep a classic example of why when in the heart of winter some on here despair of a 'near miss' easterly thanks to a slightly more east-based Scandi/Siberian high, others get a little more optimistic about longer term prospects. High pressure in this sort of zone: Can do wonders for encouraging wave activity. Of course, this early on in the season the effect is somewhat limited given the generally less coupled state, and as we saw last year even a weakened vortex early on doesn't always lead to a fruitful winter, but every little helps even at this stage - stop the plate from spinning.

Update for the week to September 23rd The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,814,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,839,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,589,000km2, a decrease from -1,625,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +683,000km2, an increase from +638,000km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 7th lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was +22.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +17.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +16.3k/day.The average long term change over the next week is +43.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +29.9k/day. The extent change so far this September is the 20th least negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 123.0k/day is required (more than 167.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 30.6k/day (drop of at least -47.7k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 40.8k/day (52.2k/day with single day values). The 5 day average value of 4,635,000km2 from the 13th is likely to be the minimum for the year. This is the 8th lowest on record.

The cfs seasonal monthly seems to be getting colder by the day for our neck of the woods this coming winter.

Will go for 10*C, hopefully with a very early snowfall just like what happened on 28th October 2008

Noticed the first leaves falling yesterday, then the colour of the trees this morning. Lovely mists yesterday on the drive into work, and a slight frost to boot. Lovely-jubbly.

I haven't had much of a chance to do this for the last couple of years but I wanted to do a very crude early look at some analogue years based upon current projections for teleconnections. The three I've looked at for now are QBO, ENSO and Solar cycle progression. For all three there is hardly a scientific methodology behind it. For QBO I took the closest matching profiles I could at 50mb (with some attention paid to 30/70mb either side of this too) - the numbers outside of brackets are the closer years I could find, the ones in brackets possess similar-ish profiles but not quite as good as the other years. This gives us a bit more data to potentially play with though. For ENSO, pretty similar to above in terms of looking at the annual profile, but here the years in brackets are years in which we remained ENSO neutral, albeit slightly negatively, where as the years outside of brackets are winters which dipped down into weak-ish La Nina. Finally, solar cycle progression is by far the crudest of the measures. I've taken the years in the declining phase of the solar cycle with an annual smoothed sunspot number of approximately 40-50 - really not entirely scientific but within the constraints of time it should give us some idea for now. So here were the years I picked out for each: QBO (Close but not exact profile matches) 1962,(1965),(1972),(1974),1976,(1979),1981,(1986),2000,2014 ENSO (remained neutral rather than weak La Nina) 1954,(1961),(1962),1967,(1978),(1981),1984,1995,(2001),(2005),2007,(2012) Solar Cycle Stage 1952,1962,1974,1984,1994,2005 The years with at least 2 'matches' are: 1962, 1974, 1981, 2005 I am not going to be issuing any sort of forecast based upon this very crude measure, but hopefully it's something just to get a little bit of a conversation going as we head towards the business end of the weather year - if I can get a bit more time soon then I'll try and add in some composite plots.

You get some snow round Bridgend way and surrounding Valleys, you might get more there than in Bridgrnd itself but you don't get masses of snow, most winters it's just the odd day here and there if we are lucky! I must admit, I'm looking forward to the frosty mornings again and prospects of snowfall!

The Daily Mirror is just as bad for spurious weather stories: get sunshine in spring/summer and its "britain to bask/bake in temps hotter than (insert namer here) or get a snowflake in winter and its "britain to freeze in temps colder than (insert name here). They're all crap-rags.