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Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!

Aileen has got to be at least a category three hurricane, its done tremendous damage to the chair

The Gfs 12z gives us a nice ridge of high pressure early next week so some fine weather for a time, especially further s / e which is then briefly interrupted from the w / nw during the midweek period before our weather then becomes very anticyclonic for a while with a decent settled spell of autumn weather across the uk with light winds, variable cloud and plenty of sunshine with pleasantly warm temperatures by day but with cold nights where skies clear and an increasing risk of mist and fog patches. In the meantime, low pressure is very much in charge with a cool and breezy mix of sunshine and blustery showers, some heavy with hail and thunder. The weekend looks similar but at least the winds are set to become lighter and the trend appears to be for more in the way of sunny spells and less showers.

They do seem early, more colour here than you'd expect most years well into October. A common reason given for early colouring is a dry summer but that doesn't apply. They did come into leaf quite early and growing conditions have been good so probably just completed the cycle and keep moving on. If we happen to have a real frost on the early side too it will really hammer them. I do recall a few times a serious frost approaching -5 happened relatively early -while most were in full leaf, and the next day they were literally tumbling off as the sun hit them.

Indications from last night's anomalies of a brief return to a pattern we have seen before this year. That is the Azores high pressure surging north and connecting to the east European ridge whilst relegating the trough to the south east of the UK. With much of the upper flow diverted NE the UK, for a time, is in a slack pressure area, with perhaps the possibility of inclement weather from the south. I say brief because the Greenland trough tracks east and normal service of unsettled weather from the west is quite quickly resumed At midnight Aileen was over NW England and moving quickly east to be over the southern Baltic 24 hours later. Thus the overnight strong winds will abate apart from the east coast for while. But violent storm F11 for a while in the North Sea. So today will see the SW wind veering north west with squally showers, some thundery with hail, in many areas particularly in the W/NW. The end of the week sees surface wind continue to veer northerly and a continuation of blustery showers as the Azores ridge nudges east and by 12z Saturday it is stretching NE of Scotland with a shallow low moving slowly SW into the North Sea.which may bring a longer period of rain to the south east for a time. From here the Azores HP exerts it's influence and the usual battle ensues between this and the upstream energy pushing east with systems either running around the top or through the ridge. The gfs this morning has the Azores hanging in there, apart from in the north, but I wouldn't bet the bank on it So all in all quite a mixed bag with the rest of the week generally cool and unsettled then a marked improvement next week for most becoming more settled with temps possible even a tad above average. Well that's the theory anyway

..just seen Jeff Piotrowski driving down the road here. I heard him shouting 120, 125..

Cake buildup? Nice! (i'm presuming auto-correct is being a pain)

Great to see Iain Cameron's excitement about the first snow of the season on Ben Nevis today!

Oh right thanks :-) yes welcome back.

Another showery day and luckily the wind has eased. Got home to this though which was nice.

frequent heavy showers here and cold, is it November already?

I think they just want to make it past F on the name list. We will rebuild.

Big melt season in Chukchi and Beaufort seas affects animals, people and the weather ahead https://www.arcticnow.com/science/2017/09/12/big-melt-season-in-chukchi-and-beaufort-seas-affects-animals-people-and-the-weather-ahead/

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-09-13 09:13:43 Valid: Weds 13 Sept 6am to Thurs 14 Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Synopsis In wake of Storm Aileen - which will move across Denmark early afternoon, a potent upper shortwave trough in strong belt of upper westerlies will swing in across western Britain today, enhancing the instability of cool and unstable westerly flow across the UK. Much of Scotland will see cloud and general rainfall, limiting convective potential. ... IRELAND, N. IRELAND, ENGLAND and WALES ... Increasingly cold mid-levels will spread in from the west with arrival of mid-level cold pool/shortwave trough ... steepening lapse rates and supporting heavy showers and increasingly scattered thunderstorms, as surface heating in sunny spells allows convective cloud to attain more height for charge separation. Heavy showers intially across western areas this morning, fuelled by seasonally warm SSTs and steeper lapse rates before becoming more widespread further east as surface heating and increasing lapse rates destabilise atmosphere. Thunderstorms most likely across Ireland, Wales, N and W England ... though anywhere across England may see storms this afternoon. Vertical deep-layer shear will be generally weak away from S England (underneath strong jet stream) and CAPE modest in cool Pm flow (a few 100 j/kg), so generally showers/storms will tend not to organise or be prolonged to bring a severe threat. Heavier showers and t-storms may bring hail and enhanced strong wind gusts. Across S England/S Wales lines of showers/storms may organise and align into linear clusters with westerly streamlines to bring a risk of localised flooding and perhaps isolated strong, maybe damaging, convective wind gusts - particularly across SW England and S Wales - where have delineated a MARGINAL risk.

A gust of 68 mph early this morning was the highest in September since I started continuous wind speed records 20 years ago. No damage as far as I can see but a lot of leaves and small sticks lying in the roads.

Anyone for a Mohican? That's better

I agree,very childish little bickering,i will try and rise above such immature arguments in future,i should know better...........but he started it Loving the Autumn feel though this morning,actually for once in this country seasonal weather!!!

Dangerous drive into work this morning. Numerous big branches down in S Lincs. A lively start to Autumn, but it's now dying down a fair bit thankfully.

Cmon Aileen

Just as a slight nod of interest here is the GFS ensembles & the CFS runs relating to the 10MB zonal wind The GFS continues to show a surpressed zonal wind with it running mainly below the average for the time of year- Its not that significant & wouldnt be 'that' significant until we land in December as we found last year !! What raised my eyebrow is the CFS control run which brings the zonal mean into negative territory which it would be well outside the 'norm' here it is S

The Gfs 6z eventually becomes very anticyclonic..mists and mellow fruitfulness springs to mind, that would be a lovely spell.

It came on all of a sudden here. Getting the odd buffeting every now and then which seems to rattle the house.

Started to pick up now.

You should start to see winds pick up in next half hour or so

Wind is howling here now, seemingly out of nowhere.

Was raining for a few hours this evening but nothing special, no wind either as expected. God I can't wait for Atlantic storms this year, they better deliver!!

Crazy wind now, making a weird sound and rattling the windows.

Just tried to get a vid of curent weather but i have tremours and it's to shaky to post. Might try again later if still up.

The gfs has been modeling the strongest winds for the last few runs to be over eastern England/Norfolk and out into the north sea,here is the 18z so anywhere lee of the pennines can expect some turbulent weather.

30mph top gust here earlier this evening although it would probably have been a bit higher my station was higher and more exposed. Highest mean was 15mph. Current mean only 8mph, gusting 19mph.

It always does. I think the same when I hear the gusts outside, but having my anemometer at just over 10 metres high, I get fairly good readings, and they never register as high as I was expecting. I did have a few 42mph gusts, and a 20mph max speed though. It's calmed down a bit now, just gusting to circa 25mph.

The strongest winds are still over SW Wales and are not due to hit untill the early hours Paul http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

There was a little flooding about on the walk back about 45 minutes ago, but the rain is still quite heavy and the radar shows plenty more on the way. Things could be quite bad around here come morning.

Stopped raining here and the wind seems to have dropped slightly although still a few strong gusts.

It certainly feels a lot stronger just along the coast here in Hastings

A tad blowy out there tonight. Saw warning messages on the M5 earlier this afternoon, warning of tonight's winds.

I haven't checked the exact wind speed here, but it is gusting in fits and starts... But we are now getting some very mournful sounding gusts over the top of the chimney.

Since the leaves are on the trees, the wind over here is deafening, and very strong!

Some pretty strong winds down here on the south coast, and has been for the last couple of hours at least.

A few new snow patches in Canada and Russia and the ice sheet is starting to expand. All very tentative but winter is starting to establish in the Arctic

The winds here are very strong now, stronger than I anticipated tbh, with sheets of 'heavy drizzle' (as I call it).

Only surprising thing is it's not the Express.

People get spoilt though, month after month of above average, then along comes August, and it reverts back to average, still nice though, with that hot sun. One thing you don't feel in Autumn is the heat from a blazing late July August sun. /

Current Max gusts http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=current;type=maxg

Yep ,CNN reporters gathering now .

Wind is REALLY starting to strengthen now, and some large raindrops are falling.

Wind has really picked up in the last hour. Met Office is predicting only 47 mph gusts here but already in my west facing rear garden, backing onto open ground, my six large trees and four medium are now thrashing around, all with full leaf. I'm hoping they will make it through the night without damage. I like my trees.

Steady as she goes..