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Showing most liked content on 05/09/17 in all areas

  1. 19 likes
    That is awful news L, My thoughts and I am sure everyone on here is with you and your wife. Have you asked for support to you both from Macmillan Nurses, they help with all the problems you will be facing?
  2. 8 likes
  3. 6 likes
    I am struck obviously by the extraordinary form of Irma first but then also the extensive convective activity elsewhere in the basin with 13L now in the GOM and Jose consolidating more in the MDR. Ahead of Irma lies plenty of moist and unstable conditions plus higher oceanic heat content than is currently on tap. So... what's to limit this hurricane apart from eye wall replacement cycles and land interaction? Speaking of the former, the latest effort seems to have become stuck in a concentric eyewalls situation; As for the latter, maybe some interaction of the CDO with PR & later Dominica but the model tracks generally keep the eye itself from taking much of a hit, if any. So it comes down to Cuba's mountainous southern side (particularly SE corner) but here I wonder if there could be some degree of 'density forcing' whereby air piling up against the mountains on the leading side of the cyclone achieves a high enough density to force more of a northward component to the cyclone's movement than would otherwise occur. It's debatable whether this is actually physically possible, particularly with such a large cyclone, but over the past decade I've seen a few cases here and there that at least suggest the possibility exists. At this time a consensus between ECM and GFS (wide margins though!) would avoid all that much interaction with Cuba's mountains anyway, in which case Floridians will be in desperate need of the storm turning north as far east as possible. As wacky as GFS seems with the movement of the storm, at least it allows for some hope that the best-case scenario of a turn before Florida is not without chance. Unfortunately this still sees the Bahamas taking a serious beating unless something highly unforeseen knocks the cyclone's core strength down a fair way. For all we know though, a stronger than expected development from TD 13 could change the game yet again by eroding a weakness in the ridge west of Florida and opening the door to the GOM for Irma. I am disappointed to have reason enough to write that last sentence but there it is . Oh and the official dropsonde reading is 920 mb which is still 6 mb lower than found during the last flight just a few hours ago - so a steady rate of deepening continues. To be honest given all that's before me at the moment, I'd be more surprised if Irma didn't reach that most horrific benchmark of 200 mph sustained winds, to this date in history not managed by any Atlantic-basin hurricane. Therefore I sincerely hope to be as surprised as possible when I catch up on things tomorrow morning!
  4. 4 likes
    Ice extent is currently above the 2010's average which is remarkable considering where we were 6 months ago. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
  5. 3 likes
  6. 3 likes
    One thing's for sure: Irma will play havoc with Donald Trump's golf swing!
  7. 3 likes
    anybody STILL think september is a summer month?... lol... seriously, even if it was sunny and warm, the leaves are clearly turning, they have lost there summer verdant glow, the growth has stopped, everythings shabby, dying, shutting down. imho its high time the 'official' seasonal dates were changed to the metereological ones which reflesct natures idea of the seasons far more accurately.
  8. 3 likes
    Hopefully that's another 4 dangerous extremists off the streets.
  9. 3 likes
    Irma is really getting getting it's actually together over the last few hours.
  10. 2 likes
    The ecm this evening has the low NW of Scotland 994mb at 12z Thursday with the fronts impacting the north west, Over the ext 24 hours these track quickly east bringing a fair bit of rain to the northern half of the UK in the process before the wind veers NW and showers are the order of the day. The wind continues to veer northerly as the low fills in the North Sea Some very brief ridging before the second more intense low zooms in from the west and it is 976mb just west of the Hebrides at 12z on Sunday with the fronts and rain already into the west. By midnight the low is in the North Sea east of Yorkshire Ergo a very wet day on Sunday with strong winds with gales, possibly severe in exposed places
  11. 2 likes
    Erm, only 2/27 EU countries have unemployment levels that you might consider 'scandalous', not 90%. Your grasp of statistics seems weak BB. The fact the UK is bottom of the growth pile in Europe alone should tell you it's impossible that 9/10 of the EU could be doing a lot worse than the UK. https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/ EU employment is falling and has been consistently for 4 years now; recording a 30% fall. Average EU unemployment is currently ~8%. UK unemployment since the Tories came to power has been ~7% on average; statistically almost the same. EDIT, also, UK unemployment was in excess of 8% on average for the full Tory 1979-1997 terms; a period you often talk of fondly as a great economic success period for the UK I recall. So, you are saying the Tories are useless? UK unemployment looks quite good right now, but it's still in 5th place in Europe, well behind e.g. the Czech Republic. Also, the UK is very unproductive, which completely offsets the benefits of low unemployment; Tories have massaged the Labour force to create an illusion of high employment, but if people are not producing anything because they are in dead end low pay 'gig' jobs, they are not really employed, at least not productively. This is part of the reason why the Tories are, it appears, economically the most incompetent government in Europe; hence have achieved the slowest growth and appalling productivity. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/24/why-is-uks-productivity-still-behind-that-of-other-major-economies
  12. 2 likes
    That's 185mph equalling the strongest hurricane since 1980.
  13. 2 likes
    Only if they approve a new category.
  14. 2 likes
    Snippet from the NOAA NHC discussion regarding Irma now at 180mph. "This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records."
  15. 2 likes
    Meaning Scotland will remain under European law for the foreseeable.
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    We've entered the month of most loss of daylight; my most permanent location, Birmingham, loses 1 hour and 57 minutes of daylight in September. Meanwhile, the Isles of Scilly lose 1 hour and 46 minutes of daylight over the course of the month, and Lerwick loses a whopping 2 hours and 38 minutes!
  18. 1 like
    summer really hasn't been as bad as some have made it out to be around here.. We had plenty of warm weather in the second half, nothing much rain-wise except short downpours and the occasional several hour drizzle. Nothing too special this summer, but I'm happy with it!
  19. 1 like
    Irma 185mph sustained and the list of strongest hurricanes by sustained wind speeds.
  20. 1 like
    Indeed but I wonder if there is any connection to the fact that our universities are heavily represented in the top 50 of higher education institutions ranked by success attracting in EU grants. Five of the top 10 were British in 2007-2013. This helps to explain why the Russell Group calls the EU "an irreplaceable source of funding for UK universities"
  21. 1 like
    Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.
  22. 1 like
    She looks beautiful but also a monster
  23. 1 like
    It certainly is. It's beautiful with a huge slice of menace.
  24. 1 like
    Is that above Macugnaga? I was there skiing many moons ago. Lovely area.
  25. 1 like
    Or harvey as a cat 4 making landfall
  26. 1 like
    You wouldn't think there was a hurricane bearing down on this idyllic spot. Live webcam from outside the Soggy Dollar Bar, Jost Van Dyke, British Virgin Islands. http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam v concerned about our friends who live on the neighbouring island of Tortola, their house is perched right on top of a large hill outside Road Town.
  27. 1 like
    Recon have found solid high end cat 4 in the se quad. Cat 5 def. Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
  28. 1 like
    No... that's still Wilma in 2005, at 882 mb Or Allen, in 1980, with 190 mph sustained winds... ... depending on which way you want top look at strength. Still - Irma definitely has potential at this point.
  29. 1 like
    She looks to be going through an erc as well which will spread those winds out and possibly help the pressure to get down to 900-910.
  30. 1 like
    I have to say looking at the ECM frames as an example, it looks as if Irma will continue west/northwest into the Gulf but all of a sudden she turns north. This is still several days away so she may still enter the Gulf of Mexico. It was only a couple of days ago that the ECM was showing Irma to be a fish.
  31. 1 like
  32. 1 like
    I don't think I've ever seen the ECM London pressure ens in such close agreement for the entire 10 day period
  33. 1 like
    The theme being totalitarian regimes /leaders will tell you what it is you want to hear and then laugh at you behind your back. Just as Adolph did to Neville Chamberlain 79 years ago at Munich. Unfortunately history teaches us that this sort of thing usually ends up one way.
  34. 1 like
    I do understand how "coldies" dislike headaches in the summer and stifling humidity etc because i suffer with it too - luckily though, the conditions conducive to migraines etc occur for a grand total of about 2 weeks a year - the remaining 50 are beige, breezy, cool, dull bilge. I would quite like a seasonal winter this year - 1. Because i could work from home instead of commuting to the office if it actually decides to snow. 2. It's nice and atmospheric for Halloween, Bonfire Night and Christmas. I don't like winter particularly at all, but i don't actually mind the cold when it's settled and not howling with wind and lashing rain. A nice settled Autumn with mellow mists and all that jazz with a cold and bright winter (interspersed with the odd snow event, maybe a blizzard or too for good measure) would be lovely. I just cant stand endless days of wind and frontal rain. It's miserable and you cant get anything done. I think I struggle with winter the most after the turn of the year. By the end of Christmas, I am fed up with the dark and wet and yearn for a return to warmer weather, which ironically doesn't really ever come because we have a climate conducive to perpetual Autumn. The longer daylight hours I definitely look forward to. Anyway, went off on a bit of a tangent. I hope this winter delivers, even for those who were absolutely reveling in the disgusting summer washout weather and enjoy 11 degrees and grey.
  35. 1 like
    Don't follow that one at all i'm afraid, I dislike the humid hot weather for working in,anybody would who does my line of work will do.Does your intollerence of cold give you a headache,trouble sleeping? I love a warm summers day sat out relaxing just like most folk. No idea where you coming from for that one,sorry.
  36. 1 like
    The Euro only grants accurate pressure data to it's high res customers so you kind of have to knock a bit off.
  37. 1 like
    Absolement - I have just watched the Panorama program about the detention centre near Gatwick Airport - I strongly suspect that the culture in the relation to the guards has been developing for years - in fact there was mention of complaints some 3 years ago - apparently it was also Home Office policy that there was no segregation between otherwise normal deportees i.e. just overstayers, one of whom was a Pakistani doctor and violent criminals who were being deported. Much of this culture and the Home Office regs must have been laid down under Theresa May's watch as Home Secretary - these type of thing do not happen overnight - as Home Secretary it was her duty to keep a watching brief and if anything came to her notice which was not right cause an investigation to be made. It is obvious she didn't, why is anybody's guess - she could have turned a blind eye, or her set up was so incompetent that the system to bring these matters to her attention just was not there, despite she had 6 years to develop such a system. As a retired police officer I was appalled at the inhumanity involved - in my formative years as a young officer, I was fortunate enough to have a very good Sergeant, who eventually retired as a Superintendent - he told us once that it was possible for all of us through some quirk of fate or misfortune to be in the same state as the prisoners we arrested - I never forgot it - in fact so often it worked to the advantage of the investigating officer to treat his prisoners with respect - it helped to develop a rapport and as such they were more likely to confess their misdeeds. The problem comes when other people aren't looked upon as being human in quite the same way - Theresa went some way down this road when she described remainers of people as being of no state in last years Tory Party Conference - no doubt it was supposed to be funny playing to a captive audience but in fact it said a lot. She has continually said that she would play her cards close to her chest because she felt it would be a disadvantage to reveal the UK position in the Brexit negotiations - Why? Surely the whole idea of trying to reach some type of agreement is to lay the cards of both sides on the table and see where there are points of agreement and disagreement. She didn't trust the members of parliament with the democratic process of discussing brexit last autumn - she has paid no heed to the result of June's General Election , which should have told her something but has continued in more or less the same secretive manner letting out sound bites from time to time. However being secretive also covers deceptiveness and conniving. As this continues the more I get convinced that her driving forces are her for her own aggrandisement and lust to hold and retain power, to continue to keep the conservative party in power and to serve her high placed puppeteers who have vested interests in being separated from the EU. It has very little to do with the benefit of the ordinary people, despite what she says to the contrary - they are just politician's words designed to placate the masses.
  38. 1 like
    Would that be the famous snow stick measurer pictures from the 30cm of snow you were meant to get and nothing appeared? Haha . (it was disappointing here but you'll never live that down!) nice pics, I'm sure you're enjoying!
  39. 1 like
    Thank you for the response my friend. Yes, I have done exactly as you described and actually started to blame myself, thinking if only I looked outside etc. I had no idea there would be any night time storms which is why I settled down after dark and watched The Martian (awesome film btw, second time I've seen it now) oblivious to what was going on outside.
  40. 1 like
    I hope we get another snowless winter
  41. 1 like
    Agreed. Anything that keeps the Azores High away is a blessing.
  42. 1 like
    The long range forecast for Autumn is now online. Read it in full here.
  43. 1 like
    Indeed, the BBC in its Scottish region led with this story on their Scottish BBC webpage this morning, it was ranked before the new bridge opening at that time and would have been the first story readers saw...... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-41095949 Now, sepsis is a terrible thing and would benefit from more funding as everything else would, but why is this story Scotland only and not UK wide. If you look at the figures, the Scottish NHS is performing better on sepsis deaths than the rUK, 0.661% of deaths to 0.067%. It was basically another SNP bad headline to take the shine of the bridge opening by the Queen. The BBC should therefore be asking what is the Scottish NHS doing better than the rUK about sepsis rather than advertise it as a Scottish problem,
  44. 1 like
    Newly discovered human-like footprints from Crete may put the established narrative of early human evolution to the test. The footprints are approximately 5.7 million years old and were made at a time when previous research puts our ancestors in Africa -- with ape-like feet. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170831134221.htm
  45. 1 like
    I was playing around with various data again, and since we usually look at ENSO, QBO and Solar cycle data, I decided to make a graphic that combines all of it in one place, as a reference to past combinations of these indices. The enso line does not correspond to any axis values, but is just there as a feeling of wether it was + or - or waning/waxing. Here is a version without the ENSO: And versions without solar data: If anyone has some special graphical request, I can try to cook something up as much as its in my limited plotting power. Regards
  46. 1 like
  47. 1 like
    But surely SS, if the EU is to thrive in the long-term (and I sincerely hope it will!) it must face up to its flaws; merely pretending that it doesn't have any can hardly be a viable option?
  48. 1 like
    "Lon L. Hood Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA Abstract The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11 year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3 years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible. Plain Language Summary An ongoing issue in climate science is the extent to which upper atmospheric processes, including solar forcing, can influence tropospheric climate. It has recently been shown that an internal oscillation of the stratosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation, can modulate the amplitude and occurrence rate of intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropical Pacific during northern winter. These intraseasonal oscillations, the most important of which is the 30–60 day Madden-Julian oscillation, have significant derivative effects on climate outside of the tropics, including impacts on rainfall events over the continental United States. Here evidence is presented that the amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation during northern winter is also modulated by the 11 year solar cycle. The modulation is such that amplitudes and occurrence rates are largest under solar minimum conditions when the quasi-biennial oscillation is in its easterly phase and smallest under solar maximum conditions when the quasi-biennial oscillation is in its westerly phase. However, the available time record (37.3 years of satellite measurements) is limited. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the solar minimum/easterly category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which larger-than-average amplitudes are expected and an initial test of the proposed relationship will be possible."
  49. 1 like
    Really interesting thread, great to read in the backround as the months tick by. Just thought I would add the updated chart, cold blob has shifted right to our shores!
  50. 0 likes
    I get a 'look at the state of that!' comment. Although this woman makes hints that I need 'new' clothes when as many of you know is laughable. When she realized that was a stupid thing to say, she started telling others how lovely they look and asking them where they got their top/coat/jeans quite loudly.
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