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Sorry but couldn't resist. First snow of the season appears on the GFS 6hz!

Whilst no mist across the fields this morning, there was a nice sunrise and some mist over the River Derwent that runs through the valley at Kirkham. After a warm Spring and start to summer I'm very much in Autumn mode right now

Nothing constructive to add to last night's assessment of the anomalies so straight on to this morning's gfs. Actually a quick look at today and tomorrow, Most places will stay dry today but the next low is on it's way to the NW and the associated fronts (I say this advisedly) will cross the country later bringing a fair bit of rain mainly to northern parts, The low tracks east and is still effecting northern parts on Friday but this then gives way to to transient ridge on saturday. I say transient because by 12z Sunday Gert is south of Iceland and the associated fronts are bringing rain to all but the far south. From this point things get quite interesting, The amplification of the Azores in mid Atlantic (something the gfs is quite keen on) gets underway initiating the track of Gert to be adjusted east and then east south east over the next 48 hours resulting in some quite inclement windy conditions over Scotland with the probability of gales. By the end of that period the aforementioned Azores HP has moved east over the UK For the rest of the week the Azores dominates the Atlantic but with the UK being on the eastern periphery we may well catch systems swinging around the high cell, particularly Scotland, although nothing of any great note. The N/S tendency in these situations is quite well illustrated by the rainfall

I was thinking the exact same thing this morning. And the good weather has not just been a purely south-east thing, with plenty of other areas of the country enjoying spells of good weather. Here it has been pleasantly warm with some lovely cloudscapes, and this looks set to continue, with the rain, as @Captain Shortwave pointed out, reserving itself mostly for overnight. The nights are noticeably drawing in now; walking the dog last night, by 9 it was all but dark. Trees outside of campus are starting to show golden colours with more leaves underfoot. I love the long days of summer, but am still a wistful winter lover at heart, ever hopeful for that magical 'proper winter' we all crave and that this time of year starts to hint at.

Hahahahaha oh how I've missed this

OMG bright flash and boom!!!! I'm out of NSC!!!

The lack of anything overly warm has been unusual here in London nothing particularly cool, very pleasant a string of days in the low 20s, however we had a day or two in the low mid teens in London which is quite shocking, in fact in some locations record breakingly low highs for August. In recent years there seems to be a pattern with good summery weather good for holidaymakers returning upon once the kids go back to school in September. The weather of late has seen a marked improvement to what we have seen with the models suggesting a continuation of this settled regime and perhaps something a little warmer. I’d like some proper heat before we’re done for another year however I’m not too hopeful, I’m not interested in Autumnal gunk yet.

stench of summer?..... my god, where do you live, a sewage farm?. the only scents i get in summer are off blooms, lilies, jasmine, roses, etc etc etc... all i get in autumn are smelly dying plants, dead/decaying vegetation, dampness, and chilly. i dont mind winter because the aira clean - but theres nothing to compare to a mild spring day in april, when the air is full of the freshness of new growth.

The weather here has been perfect since last friday. Low 20's and sun with little breeze. This is the summer weather I love, no 30+ stuff for me please.

EC clusters this morning was not completely convinced of a settled period for mid-next week, but this evening's set was much more settled with varying degrees of warmth. Until a couple more ensemble sets get fixed on a particular direction, best keep the bullish outlook and the more doubtful outlook in mind. But glasses definitely half full rather than half empty for a dry, sunny and warm period for all, at long last!! EC clusters 00Z for T192 EC clusters 12Z for same timeframe:

Nothing conclusive vis NOAA and the EPS this evening but they are not as bullish as the GEFS in the long term. Certainly positive anomalies and some ridging in mid Atlantic in the ten day time scale which would indicate a few days of HP influence except perhaps for the far north but no great suggestion that it will be sustained for long after that period so maybe the GEFS over egging it a tad. At least it does look like a better outlook without going overboard.

This looks like a lucky week, rain last night, and it looks like tomorrow night will repeat this with Wednesday and Thursday daytime being fine and warm. The weekend looks a little cooler but nothing drastic and then maybe a warm up at the start of next week. Maybe we might recover from a rather poor first half of August.

Evening @Turnedoutniceagain The first mists appeared around here about four weeks ago I notice that there is a bumper crop of berries in the hedgerows as well Evening @Seasonality My thoughts exactly! I thought that this was the autumn thread, and all people seem to be doing is frothing over winter. As I said much earlier in this thread I'm hoping for a pleasant and sunny September, with lots of cool nights and misty mornings and hopefully a few last remaining summer thunderstorms, followed by an October that continues the cooling trend, and allows the misty mornings to slowly start developing into a foggy day or two about the middle of the month, before giving way to those misty start and end sunny days with that misty smokey golden haze to the air especially on the run up to Halloween. As the light in September and October is like no other time of the year, especially with the trees being on the turn. As for November, once the glory of the autumn colours are over, I hope we see a few big wind storms, as I does enjoy wrapping up and pulling my boots on for a nice long walk on a good ole blustery, late autumn day... Interspersed with many more misty mornings and evenings with that beautiful light that only a low sun in the sky can bring. I really don't know if it'll pan out like that of course, but there is now't wrong with hopecasting.

There is a lot of activity from Chester to Stoke moving northeast.

Three models, three markedly different rates of progression with respect to the low containing the remnants of Hurricane Gert. Not often you see UKMO and ECM so far apart at 5 days range. Once, the fastest outcome looked the best with a ridge building in behind, but GFS has been tending toward holding that ridge back to the west anyway so it's lost its charm there. The slowest outcome - i.e. ECM - does at least offer a potentially very warm Monday followed by a thundery breakdown on Tuesday that would likely prove entertaining for a fair few on here. That the low remains slow-moving in our vicinity afterward... well we're getting used to that as the atmosphere just keeps on resisting any break away from a La Nina-like tendency; the GEFS mean for the Pacific 850 hPa winds has reduced the extent and magnitude of positive zonal wind anomalies i.e. weaker than average trade winds for the week ahead and that's not helping with trying to get a ridge to take hold in a position NE of the Azores rather than over or NW of there. It's been fascinating in a horrific sort of way to see these trades just keep on coming back strong. We had such a lengthy Nino-like atmospheric state lingering on after the oceanic El Nino event of 2015-16 and it does seem as if the atmosphere is determined to balance things out even if the ocean refuses to fully embrace a La Nina condition (anomalies remain inconsistent spatially, with more of those positive-negative 'waves' in the anomaly patterns). With the broader atmosphere still managing to be impressively warm in the absence of a Nino oceanic setup, perhaps we should not have been so taken aback to see these strong trades... speculative I know, but it's as good as I can come up with for now

Evening @Chris.R I also heard the sferic on the radio, and the sky over there is currently very dark! But nothing is showing up (as yet) on the storm radar. But loads of people on Facebook have confirmed lightning.

deep FI, but could be first Autumn frosts especially oop norf!

Afternoon all More evidence of mid-Atlantic ridging combined with Greenland heights on the evening models. Here's the GEM 00Z OP at the end of the run: GFS OP takes it much further and puts the British Isles in a cool unsettled N'ly or NW'ly for the Bank Holiday.

Cornish oysters thrive with traditional fishing https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cornish-oysters-thrive-with-traditional-fishing-p2rbr6z97

The stench of that ruddy pollen!! Natures weapon of mass destruction to my eyes and nose! But seriously i love opening that door to that first few cold mornings,really wakes one up

Morning Ratty

Frogs that adapt to pesticides are more vulnerable to parasites Wood frogs that develop pesticide tolerance become more susceptible to dangerous virus https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170815141709.htm

Charts like that in winter wouldn't go down very well amongst the coldies

The scent of Autumn is one of the best smells there is,beats the stench of a hot summers day hands down. Love those Sunday mornings when Autumn garden bonfires get lit,the fantastic feeling of opening that front door to the first proper cold morning,nothing can beat that in my opinion.

Some tweets you guys might interest.

Hmmmmmm....when we need an it of low pressure help we don't get any!! Looks promising by day 7ish, but quickly goes pear shaped as the high gets pulled west. We really need a low to push in and stop the retrogressing high....but we will see. Could easily end up with a trough parked to the east and northerlies.

Sort of like last winter then....

Absolutely. Autumn is definitely about the crisp light and colours for me rather than rotting smells haha. In contrast to spring which is all about the flowers, bright green trees and rapidly strengthening sunshine for me.

Agree with you about the scents of Spring and early-mid Summer, best time of the year imho with all that new growth and freshness. Autumn smells are often of things dying, decaying etc. Better in a drier climate but in the wet UK not so good. Though like Markyo says, I do like the scents of fires and mists/fogs.

6z is pleasant enough, a slightly better variation on the 00z theme - which is to be expected in this kind of situation. The position of the high all crucial. Looks like these tropical systems are like buses....wait for one and two come along together! All eyes on the Caribbean and North Atlantic, as by day 10 we could have another system to meddle with the jet stream once more and throw everything into chaos. Keep those eyes peeled folks.

Absolutely gutted, despite leaving the bedroom window and curtains open I slept right through this

I couldn't agree more! I am focused on what the autumn has in store while keeping an eye on the Atlantic hurricanes.

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Aug 2017 ISSUED 23:12 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridging will be in place across many parts of the British Isles at the start of Wednesday, but an approaching frontal system associated with a plume of relatively high WBPT airmass will move eastwards, engaged by a couple of shortwaves rotating around the main upper trough. As a result, there will be potential for some instability release embedded within showery outbreaks of rain, with two main zones of interest; one beginning over SW England and Celtic Sea mid-late afternoon/early evening and then migrating NE-wards across England and Wales during the evening/night hours - confidence is quite low at the moment as to how deep embedded convection will be, and hence how widespread (if any) lightning activity will be. For now, we refrain from upgrading to a SLGT. Better agreement exists for some deep convection to develop during the afternoon and evening hours (presumably along the cold front), over parts of Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland then propagating NE-wards towards W/SW Scotland. This activity should benefit from some reasonable DLS; in fact a low-topped supercell cannot be ruled out which may produce an isolated tornado - this more likely over Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-16

Summer comes to an end in Spitzbergen over the coming few days with snow and sub zero temps in the Northern Parts of the Islands for a time. C

A very poetic autumn forecast, and similar to what I'd like to see!

this is why i dont like august/september. yesterday was very pleasant in the afternoon, but the scent in this mornings chilly air smacks of autumn. next weeks looking cool too. but mainly dry?

It is looking more settled, thankfully. I'm hoping for silly plumes and heat, love it and might get some interesting weather that way too.

Given up on summer here too.... off to Copenhagen/Oslo for stag do, Spain for a wedding, Reykjavik/Nova Scotia for year late honeymoon in the next few months.... after that I'm ready for snow, frost, fog.... and going to my brothers eco resort in Gambia in January....

A cool feel out there already tonight, alarm set for 5.30am to see if there's any mellow mistyness around sunrise which will make for some nice pictures.

Give the farmer a chance to harvest the crops in your photos especially with at least a shower every day. However even I feel the high hills will see snow before the end of September given how cool it is now.

London ens looking much drier from Saturday

For all the talk of an "unsettled week" and "no sign of summer returning" this is turning out to be a very nice week so far. Sunny and 22.4C yesterday and even warmer today at 23.7C. And a forecast for more hazy sunshine and a high of 23C tomorrow!

The last couple of runs has seen the GEFS anomaly move fairly significantly to weaken the trough to the NW and push it east whilst initiating more positive anomalies and some ridging in mid Atlantic, This not only supports to some extent the det output but even suggests a settled period of perhaps longer duration. Await NOAA and the EPS with some interest for any support, particularly the latter as it do date has not been over keen on this scenario and rather liking keeping the Azores HP firmly in the SW

Got some convective cloud photos while on Beachy head today! (I think I managed to see the over hang of cloud from the elevated French storms, on the third photo).

Soft, booming thunder, frequent lightning, and light, convective rainfall. I'm loving this!

Light winds help! there's just a gentle breeze here.. been nice the last 2 days!

Hi everyone! Arrived home from a very relaxing (and hot!) two weeks in Crete about 24 hours ago. The weather here couldn't be more different! Mid/high teens and raining all day. On approach into Gatwick yesterday, I snapped a photo from the plane on my phone of an anvil that seemed to have produced some lightning over SE Kent: And as a matter of interest, I'll also include another anvil spotted over mainland Greece. My plane was cruising at FL360 at this point, and the cloud top was level with it!

you prove my point sonny

Looking interesting from here on out. A nice warming coming up, and not before time. I have got some cycle rides in, but yet to go without a jacket and in shorts. Horrible here today. Had thunder in the morning over the hills, but very distant. And just heavy showers all day. I keep having to cover and uncover my seed bed because even with the daytime rain it freezes at night, Looking forward to warm!