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In case anyone missed it, Nick issued a storm forecast earlier: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess= Certainly all looking quite lively on the netwx model this evening and overnight. (animated if you click to view full size)

The anomalies last night were still indicating no significant change in the overall pattern and thus the previous assessment of changeable/unsettled weather remains which of course by definition includes periods of pleasant and quite settled intervals particularly in the south. A pattern which exemplifies a N/S split. Thus the main features continue to be low pressure over the Arctic and associated trough in the Iceland area with ridges central Canada and, importantly as far as we are concerned, a strong ridge in eastern Europe. Thus a quite strong westerly upper flow tending to back the further north and east you get and thus a tendency for systems to track NE resulting in the aforementioned N/S split as the warm/colder air interacts in the flow. No appreciable difference in the later period but the upper flow is weaker and trend towards more positive anomalies in the Atlantic is perhaps encouraging that a more sustainable settled period may be possible, particularly in the south. Temps varying around the average, perhaps a tad below, with the usual geographic variations. The usual caveat that the det. runs will decide the detail of all of this. This morning's gfs sees today's rain clear away tomorrow leaving showers before a transient ridge builds giving a mainly fine day on Wednesday. But the next depression has already arrived south of Iceland and the associated fronts are already impacting the north west by Wednesday evening.and these continue to track east bringing some wet weather to most over weds/Thursday. By Saturday the depression has tracked ESE to be over the north North sea and is filling rapidly leaving the UK in a W/NW showery airstream Friday/Saturday. But from this point the gfs goes into it's building high pressure routine and apart from some impact from systems tracking north east in the north west this remains influential for all of next week so dry and quite warm, with temps above average at times accompanied by little wind. Everyone would take this evolution at a blink but the question is will it verify as it's next week we are talking about so it's now a matter of awaiting the ecm. This morning's mean anomaly is not fully supportive of this scenario.

Bank holiday weather already within range of ensembles. Both GEFS and ECM favouring settled scenarios over unsettled ones at the moment. GEFS clusters for 27 August: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cz50&HH=348&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= ECM clusters: We shall see how things unfold!

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017 ISSUED 08:49 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan UPDATE 08:49 UTC SLGT introduced to Channel Islands and SE England given risk of medium-level instability release during early hours of Tuesday morning as approaching upper trough engages with plume over France. Embedded lightning also possible within frontal zone from SW England / Wales late Monday afternoon/early evening, migrating NE-wards through the evening and night across Midlands - N England - S/SE Scotland, but confidence and coverage not high enough to warrant an upgrade for now...

Chance of a few rumbles of thunder in the heavy pulses of rain spreading N and E across northern UK tonight, then later in the night a risk of some elevated storms spreading NE across parts of SE England. The overnight thundery rain clearing first thing to sunshine and showers for Tuesday, greatest chance for thunder likely to be Scotland along with northern and eastern parts of England. My latest storm forecast below. Day 1 covers tonight until 6am, day 2 cover Tuesday 6am until Wednesday 6am. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-08-14 22:07:17 Valid: DAY 1: 14/08/17 22z to 15/08/17 06z. DAY 2: 15/08/17 06z to 16/08/17 06z Days 1 & 2 Convective / Storm Forecast Synopsis Monday (Day 1): Upper trough slides in from the west across western Britain on Monday, with an area of low pressure to the West of Scotland driving a cold slowly east across northern and western areas. Heavy showers with isolated thunder will affect Ireland and N. Ireland along the cold front, then later waves moving NE along the cold front further east may produce some isolated thunder embedded in pulses of heavy rain moving NE across Wales, N England and Scotland overnight. Towards SE England, a seperate area of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms may develop and spread NE ahead of cold front moving east. Tuesday (Day 2): Following cold front clearing eastern areas in the morning will be followed by an unstable W to SWly flow as upper trough begins to move in across the UK aloft. So scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms are likely - more especially across northern and western areas. DAY 1 DISCUSSION ... UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY 15TH AUG ... IRELAND and N. IRELAND, SW ENGLAND, WALES, N ENGLAND, SCOTLAND ... Conveyor of warm moist air ahead of cold front and steepening lapse rates from the west with approaching upper trough will allow embedded convection near or along cold front moving in from west where lift will be enhanced by waves developing and moving NE along it. Convection may become deep enough to produce isolated thunder and locally high enough rainfall to produce localised flooding. ... SE ENGLAND ... Plume of richer moisture over France, characterised by steep lapse rates and advecting NE, may produce deep enough convection for some isolated thunder and heavy rain leading to localised flooding tonight, as mid-level warm moist air advection destabilises with approach of upper trough from the west. DAY 2 DISCUSSION ... 6AM TUES 15TH AUG UNTIL 6AM WEDS 16TH AUG ... SCOTLAND, N and E ENGLAND ... Models indicate lapse rates will be steepest across northern and eastern UK - where coldest mid-level temperatures of the trough axis moving east will be during peak heating in the afternoon. Surface heating in the sunny spells and cold temperatures aloft will support the development of scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms. No severe weather is anticipated, given weak vertical shear and modest temperatures/moisture profiles ... any storms may produce small hail and a localised risk of minor flooding. Showers/storms should quickly fade after dark, as surface heating wanes. Issued by: Nick Finnis

Would be nice to get a storm tonight but it will just be rain and with the way the weather is around here I think it will be along time before there's a thunderstorm.

Rare birds breed for first time at Dunwich Heath A pair of stone curlews, which were once a common sight in the UK have successfully nested, laid eggs and protected one of their young after Dunwich Heath’s lead ranger, Richard Gilbert, worked to create and prepare the ideal conditions for them. Stone curlews have seen a huge decline in their numbers since the 1950s, with the Suffolk coast becoming one of their few remaining breeding spots in the UK. https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/dunwich-heath-and-beach/news/rare-birds-breed-for-first-time-at-dunwich-heath

GFS says summer isn't done yet

This is more like an August day! Plenty of sunshine, gentle breeze and temperature up to 22.2C. There's looks to be little in the way of cloud on the South coast - I bet its nice sitting on the beach at Bournemouth this afternoon with an ice cream!

Personally i am a big fan of cool Septembers. Although it can be warm in late Sep and October, much like spring you know it's not summer. If we can get a cool and wet September then we can finish summer off completely.

http://kirillovka.ks.ua/webcam-berdyansk/

The Ecm 12z is trying its best to spoil what little remains of summer 2017 with trough / ridge / trough..etc..high pressure just can't build in properly..always seems to be day 10 when there are better signs upstream! I think the best way of describing this run politely is generally changeable with occasional drier, brighter days, mainly across the s / se but also unsettled at times, especially further n / nw. I really want to see a warm / very warm settled end to this summer as I'm sure most of us do but there's no sign of it on this evidence. This morning I was singing the praises of the Gefs mean in the mid / longer range but unless all the models are on-board, especially the ecm, it doesn't count for anything!

Here in Suffolk the weather peaked around 14.00 this afternoon. Just before the hour the temp maxed out at 22.4C and then just afterwards I recorded the strongest wind gust at 19 mph. And to be honest, as for my fears earlier today that cloud might spoil the day - well it didn't. The warm, hazy sunshine didn't finally disappear until around 17.00. So just a very slim chance of a rumble of thunder overnight tonight. BBC/Met Office forecast suggesting the chance is restricted to the very far SE of the Region around 04.00 in the early hours. But the latest output from GFS and Arpege high res models this evening suggests that timing is wrong, with precipitation (and any rumbles) more likely around 11.00 Tues morning. As always, time will tell....... BBC 04.00 GFS 11.00 Arpege 11.00

No. Summer, this year, has been wondrous in Blighty

A cloudy morning with intermmittent light rain which eventually cleared to the north east around 1040 g.m.t. The afternoon was dry and mainly cloudy but with a few brief sunny intervals around 1530-50 g.m.t At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 16.6c Max today; 17.7c Min last night; 10.0c. Grass min; 7.5c Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; 0.5 mm Sunshine today; 0.30 hrs. Mean wind speed; 13 mph S Highest gust today; 27 mph S at 1313 g.m.t 8 oktas As Vis; over 80 km.

Members of the jury I would, if I may, just like to draw your attention to the point i attempted to make yesterday about treating individual runs with great care when looking too far ahead in patterns that are very fluid. An illustration of this for next week from the the gfs 06 and 12 Which at day ten is leading to a cold plunge

Yes Mushy traditionally it is a rather stagnant month in general. Roll on Autumn proper.

september bores me......dreadful month of coming death and darkness.

Sunday is shaping up to be a decent day at this stage

Looks like a storm coming in off the black sea at Odessa,Ukraine http://webcam.scs.com.ua/en/europe/ukraine/odessa/10station/

That high pressure to the north-west of the US has been displaced northwards semi-permanently in recent winters and there it is yet again. It serves to direct cold air from the Canadian arctic southwards which then hits the warm Atlantic out of the east coast and fires up the jet. We then get the usual SW-NE line of low pressures and resultant high pressure over Europe. Its also caused the Californian drought so I imagine they would be happy to see the back of it too!

I've found a lot of recent Septembers to be more than decent. While not overly extraordinary (apart from the second warmest on record 2016, and the very dry & warmer than August 2014!) on the whole, it's probably more of a consequence of so many bad August months in the last decade meaning that even an average September feels decent after a month of cloud, wind and rain.

It was very noticeable driving up and back on the motorway to and from the airport. Many of the villages by the road in the valleys were very into it, some villages it seemed to be over 50% of the roofs, I was amazed but not just a few panels as I mentioned above the whole roof. Makes you wonder why this country is often so far behind.

Still a hell of a lot to be resolved - but I think the general picture is probably the best its been for a while. The GFS is very consistent and bullish in returning high pressure to the UK in some way - it just depends whether its dry and pleasant, or dry and warm/hot. Tropical disturbances wreaking havoc as usual at this time of year.

Lights on my kitchen at 5am this morning. That's it now, all downhill to Christmas.

Yes, thats on the Hotel Wiederbergerhorn , my local. Not so many here as the village is old and of heritage status and can be only applied to new extentions or new build and planning is very strict. However, not in Katschberg, as it for the most part a purpose built ski resort and the local state Karten is very progressive in building modernisation (ie ) The hotel you stayed in and the next door Edel and Wiess cone building. I remember the Stampl Bar as all traditional wood feature , but now a ultra modern bar with all the gradgets. The Tirol on the other hand is very conservative and traditional and likes preservation. C

Morning all Looking at the models this morning, I'm struck by the influence of events to the south rather than the south west. A lot of people are looking at the Azores HP but perhaps they should be looking at the African/Iberian LP which GFS in particular makes a lot of trying to bring it further north. The movement of this potentially thundery area forces the HP at first north over us and then splits the HP leaving us under the influence of the trough with heights shunted to the north. GEM phases the Iberian and Atlantic LPs into a single feature as a mid-Atlantic ridge builds behind it at T+204: GFS doesn't quite do the same but the trough from the south is hugely influential as it shunts the HP north: ECM does nothing with this at all and is again out of kilter with the American/Canadian models. The role of the trough to the south is significant as it either keeps the HP to the north or prevents it building across from the south west leaving us in the trough trap as I termed it the other day between the trough to the north or north west and the thundery trough to the south.

A dry night with clear skies until well into the early hours. Cloud increased quickly before dawn and eventually brought intermittent light rain by 0630 g.m.t. At 0800 g.m.t Temp; 12.1c 24 hr max; 18.4c 24 hr min; 10.0c Grass min; 7.5c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0800 g.m.t; Trace Mean wind speed; 17 mph S 8 oktas As Vis; 65 km Intermittent light rain

Summer looks like making a comeback next week..in the nick of time!..glad I didn't throw the towel in now The Gefs 00z mean looks increasingly good beyond this week

A cloudy start here with just a couple of breaks and glimpses of blue. I was hoping for some good sunny spells this morning, but the satellite image showing a fair bit of cloud around. And the Arpege 'cloudiness' forecast for mid-day also suggesting it's more likely to be thin cloud and hazy sunshine ahead of the advancing front. But at least it's going to be warm, with both BBC/Met Office and Arpege going for highs of 22C to 24C for many in our Region. Cloud 08.00 Arpege Cloud 13.00 Temps 16.00

Predictable the ecm is not in agreement with gfs from next weekend onwards. It has the ridge very transient over the weekend and has the next system rushing in on Sunday bringing with it some wet weather for that day and to a lesser extent Monday with only the far south perhaps escaping. Then the usual scenario of ridging which proceeds to get squashed by a trough ingressing from the north west. The detail for next weekend and after is a long way from being nailed down

So the more reliable models showing a showery end to the meteorological summer. Ain't no surprise, once July bails out then the continuing season normally follows suit. once again meto sugar coating the next 2 weeks with a ridge in SE and no mention of 8c in Newcastle last few nights, sunny yes but cold wind from a very bizarre southerly direction all day. Nice to see blue skies but feels like winter up here.

Complete agreement between GLOSEA and CFS now. Extremely similar in their prognosis. Horrid

Having studied a variety of physical systems, my intuition tells me not to be so sceptical (it's good to be sceptical, but a level of open-mindedness is also needed). I'd like to make clear though that when I say it's plausible I don't mean it's likely, necessarily, just that there could be some kind of connection (unlike the Moon landing hypothesis!). I haven't carried out a full-blown analysis (and neither have you I suspect), but if the data show some kind of correlation, then to me this "link" isn't to be discarded (I fancy having a look at some point, could well find that such a link is weak at best). Goldbach's conjecture holds up to all numbers less than 4*10^18, still 0% of all even integers, but most mathematicians don't simply discard it! As to your last point, I actually wish I'd referred to the climatic state as whole, and not simply teleconnective states. Unfortunately, I think our picture of the climate is so far from being complete that such a test would be meaningless (because there is so much we're not accounting for). This is where analogue forecasting fails, IMO.

Yes I noticed that the GFS is quite keen for some convective potential towards the western side of the UK overnight tomorrow.

Looking through all the ops, ensembles and clusters, the NOAA 6-10 fits them well: Ridging appearing on almost every run tonight, but as usual the million dollar question is how far and how strongly. Typically the GFS and GEFS want pressure to rise right up to northern Scotland, but the ECM op and ens see the Atlantic pushing the ridge flat much faster. Likely result: some good days for all as the final third of August approaches, but significantly better towards the SE.

Was lovely down here today.

Evening All ,despite the ever changing weather ,certainly not a wash out....... ridge/low etc, just about suits everyone.... At the ten day range gfs paints a better picture ecm not so .oh well this is the British Weather Looking for hot weather, you better go south

Snatching 40 winks

It does happen, sounds like what we down hete in may, the gust frount scared the crap out of me, think it was around 80+ in the the channel. How ever i don't think it lost much omph before it reached me as i'm on the coast. No one who didn't see what we saw in aycliffe/dover coast believs how bad the lightning was.

I felt it Brrr ! Got down to 7.3c last night with clear skies, didn't see a single shooting star

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.8C -1.7C below normal.

Oh hello, summer! Nice to meet you again

Today's GFS runs are once again leading the rampers up the garden path. Charts like what the 12z is showing are why I dread the thought of any high pressure this time of year. HP=humidity and uncomfortable temps usually sourced from an unwelcome direction. This season cannot end soon enough.

As fast as the air they're in which depends on cloud type and altitude,very high clouds can travel above 100m/s but lower clouds will move a little faster than your ground wind speed , also if you have little wind at ground level it seems to accentuate their movement.

All in all a very good summer for me,mainly good nights for sleeping,aircon bill lower than last year,feel a whole lot more refreshed than usual at this time of year. August looking to end on the same note so very happy indeed. I know many,and i mean many won't agree but swap places job wise with myself in the heat and you'll find out what i'm on about!

Hey moki, we don't see you any more on jp weather community, is that because you are rehabilitated on this site?

My pics of this year by far goes to this lenticular cloud that i have been watching for over an hour,stunning and the last one with mackerel sky and the lenticular cloud in the background,looks like a ufo.