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Goodness me..... My photo made it onto the BBC 10 o'clock news weather watcher slot! Well chuffed.

Hearing some rumbles coming out of this.

anybody know if its possible at all to look back on the radar anywhere from yesterday afternoon? Funnel cloud over sea by Cromer at 5:30pm-ish and it'd be nice to see what it looked like on radar

Just pulled up in Asda's car park to see this impressive convective cloudscape.

That was a nice end to that thunder-shower.

More funnel sightings today, this may even a weak tornado over the New Forest

Last night's anomalies were very uninspiring so just the EPS will suffice to indicate a not dissimilar upper pattern to a couple of days ago. Strong ridging N. Pacific, low pressure over the Arctic with a conduit to the upper low north west of the UK via a trough northern Canada and ridging to the east extending into Greenland. The latter feature inhibits eastward movement of the Atlantic trough but with still quite a strong jet emanating from the eastern seaboard there is a danger of it being 'topped' up from time to time which would increase it's longevity and thus an unsettled weather regime. Meanwhile back on the farm this morning. The low pressure perched over us finally departs east late tomorrow but not before quite a cool day on Monday in the east with temps perhaps not rising much above 15C in the Cambridgeshire area. But Tuesday most of the UK is in a col and a generally a much warmer and tranquil day with temps in the 23-25C region in England and not too shabby elsewhere. So on the Wednesday By 12z the upper low is west of the Hebrides as is the surface feature, the fronts from which are busy traversing the country bringing wet weather to most and quite windy in the north and west. For the next couple of days the surface low wanders around between Iceland and Scotland with much of the Britain in a showery westerly with just the south hanging on the any influence from the Azores and thus drier and less windy here although the temps no great shakes.anywhere. But at the same time another system is tracking in from the south west (topping up the main low) and by Saturday a more general area of rain affects the UK. At the beginning of next week the main low does fill and move away NE and thus some transient ridging from the Azores but this starts to give way to the next Atlantic low Tuesday evening. The detail of these last few days will obviously change, and probably be treated differently by the ecm anyway, so merely to be noted. All in all not a lot different to earlier outlooks. changeable but certainly not a worse case scenario but that does rather depend on where you are given the usual NW/SE bias. I was wondering why eastward movement seemed to be underway later on and this would appear to be because the GEFS anomaly is dropping (at the moment anyway) the idea of sustained pressure rises to the east.

Same place, different day, different towers but sadly no storms.

Massive crack of thunder! I'm looking towards Swanage, I can see clouds under the base moving right on one edge, and moving left on the other..

Torrential downpour here and yay, one flash of lightening .. thunder Been ages since that happened here. B.

Frosty,isn't that the reason for coming on this site,we are here for a bit of fun and banter! You certainly have nothing to be guilty about,i'm sure many would miss folk like yourself if they stopped posting!

Hi Folks , I would love to put lipstick on the model output in the next ten days but alas I cant The truth is that we have had a fantastic start to summer below rainfall and well above average temps for most but of course not for all! Its normal British summer folks so some rain but some very pleasant spells of fine weather . remember you only have to get the sun on your skin at this time of year for about three hours and you will get burnt.....Im sure there is more than three hours of sunshine for all of us in the days ahead

Op & EPS singing from the same hymn sheet this evening... into mid-term* days 6-10 & 5-10 height anom. *important to point out, there are signals appearing, days 11-15 from the EPS of a more settled spell being established with a relaxation of the jet, w/ heights building to the NW of UK... tho temps don't look anything special, at this stage at least. Something to keep an eye on.

There is also support from the GEFS 12z for high pressure to build in during early August with increasingly warm, dry sunny weather across the uk so the op isn't alone..and there are others which show ridging too..hopefully a growing trend! I'm not even bothered about anything hot.. anticyclonic warm and sunny would suit me following a changeable generally less warm spell.

Well, The Gfs 12z shows high pressure building in across the uk during early August..Yes I know it's deep FI but there are also hints from Exeter of a high during the same period!..

Funny isn't it, a horrid blocking high over Greenland in summer becomes a wonderful blocking high in winter with a southerly tracking jet.

Good luck mate, and who knows...you might get to witness some European goodies!

Some images from today, of the small cell that produced one rumble and then went off the Suffolk coast to increase in intensity early afternoon. Among the clouds and to the side I spotted some lenticular cloud formations, something I have not seen often around here. Very pleased to have seen them even if they did move and dissipate very quickly, as the pictures show. Kept watching the low cloud, in case of any lowering, there was some updraughts but not much more.

Some images from today, of the small cell that produced one rumble and then went off the Suffolk coast to increase in intensity early afternoon. Among the clouds and to the side I spotted some lenticular cloud formations, something I have not seen often around here. Very pleased to have seen them even if they did move and dissipate very quickly, as the pictures show. Kept watching the low cloud, in case of any lowering, there was some updraughts but not much more.

A very intense shower just clearing here at my parents just SW of Ashford in Kent Before (looking north) with radar Following a kind of 'whales mouth' below looking south had torrential rain but no thunder

ECM and UKMO show a setup conducive to gales, maybe even severe in the case of ECM, in just 3 days time, when GFS and GEM have it little more than very breezy! It comes down to a feature with some tropical characteristics that swings into the upper trough and deepens substantially. The precise track of this makes a big difference to how windy it is Wed-Thu (and how wet for western parts on Thu). Not only that but it makes it harder to get much of a ridge in Fri-Sun although ARPEGE still looks to be having a fair go of it as of +114 despite having the low close to the ECM position at +72. At the moment, regarding next weekend's pattern, GFS is in my opinion the best fit for the GLAAM state, but ECM is the best for the rampant C-Pacific trade winds. As those trades finally look to ease off during said weekend, there is more chance of improvement early-mid next week. ECM and GFS hint at this but with little conviction at this time (and ECM day 10 is just plain rude given the day 9 - give us a break why don't you! ). That being the difference between our current fortunes with near-neutral GLAAM and when GLAAM goes into a low orbit of the GSDM during these summer months, which is when a longer lasting unsettled period tends to occur. I know it all sounds rather tenuous but the fact is we have recently been thrown from the sunny path into the dark jungle and are now struggling to find an escape route while wondering just how much unpleasantness waits in the shadows!

After a chilly Monday down the eastern half of the UK as the low moves away east, and a warmer more benign Tuesday, the ecm has a rather elongated (west-east) upper trough in the Atlantic by 12z Wednesday which dictates the configuration of the associated deep surface low. The fronts of which are lying across the UK making the day wet and windy particularly in the north. By Thursday 00z the fronts have tracked north east into the North Sea leaving the UK in a showery westerly but the main Atlantic low is is on the move east and filling and by Friday 12z is just north of Scotland At the same time more upper troughs have been fed into the Atlantic on the Canadian conveyor belt so another surface low is tracking rapidly ENE to bring rain to the UK on Saturday and showers in the westerly airstream on Sunday after it passed through. So all in all a pretty unsettled week, which continues to the end of the run, with the usual caveats that this will include dry and pleasant interludes which will as usual have a very much N/S bias.

Just had a clap of thunder from that shower to my NE!

Very intimidating clouds running parallel to my location...

Autumn is lovely, the colours are beautiful. I love the cool misty mornings

a rather unsettled and very wet period ahead for the NW (bar mon & tuesday).... if the GFS 6z is on the right track. prec anomaly (23.7-31.7) shows the contrast between the NW and SE. The total prec chart is quite something for Ireland.

The ecm pretty much in the same ball park as the gfs this week with fronts affecting the country Weds and the weekend but it differs at the beginning of next week which is not altogether a surprise as the details in this area await verification. It fills the main low in situ rather than tracking it NE but it does get reinforced by systems tracking from the south west. and then the whole caboodle moves to the north east leaving the UK in a light NW flow. But what awaits? What adjustments will be made in the interim? In the meantime it could be worse

Guilty as charged, looking forward to the welcome return from hibernation of the cold mafia later this year!

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-07-23 05:59:56 Valid: 23/07/2017 06z to 24/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SUNDAY 23RD JULY 2017 Synopsis Upper and collocated surface lows across eastern England will slowly drift east across the N Sea during the evening. An unstable Wly veerying NWly to Nly flow will cover England and Wales. … ENGLAND and WALES … Cold mid-level temperatures of upper low atop moist diurnally heated surface airmass will create steep lapse rates which will support the re-development of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms today. A zone of wind convergence shifting southeast across England and Wales during the day could be the focus for storms to organise and train along, bringing a threat of localised flooding where they do organise. Otherwise weak vertical shear will mean showers and storms that develop will be dis-organised and pulse-type and will limit the potential for severe weather. Any showers/storms may produce hail and, like yesterday, there could be a few funnels or even brief weak tornadoes / waterspouts – especially where surface convergence combines with buoyant and strong updrafts. Issued by Nick Finnis Also on Netweather here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Yet another lightning strike map that draws the borders of Shropshire very accurately; have seen quite a few like it....

This is 11 days away.... Summer is always 'around the corner' if you look that far out on any op run. Give me jam, today.... not tomorrow.

Unfortunately as we enter the main holiday period there is no sign yet of anything other than brief settled interludes between the Atlantic systems. The UK fax for Tuesday shows one of those as a weak ridge moves across after the current slow moving low finally exits east. We can see though how we lack any influence from the Azores high as modeling continues to show those eastern Atlantic -ve 500 hPa height anomalies. A look at the ECM 500hPa mean anomaly charts underlines this,these are days 5 and 10 So it's a case of the odd fine day or 2 interspersed with more unsettled spells of rain and showers as the Atlantic jet continues to run across our latitude.Temperatures in this setup will naturally be somewhat disappointing.

I certainly wasn't trying to put people off posting, I'm not a vindictive type of person. I was just having a bit of a moan really. I know that Frosty isn't the type of person to run away & hide no matter what people say. Along with knocker & JH he's probably the most regular poster on the mod thread all through the year.

Been out wth dog quite high up on furness fells ,amazingly I could see the thunderstorm in far distance near Gloucester way .

See yer Some late ducklings but the recent downpour on Friday has done little for the water clarity of this pond next to the lake. The Kingfisher is back and saw it fleetingly a couple of times this morning. And half a dozen Black Swans have turned up in the Hayle estuary.

Very dark skies to the North not long ago, that produced some heavy rain and one flash of lightning (not seen or heard) just north of Chelmsford. Looking to the NW now, seeing what may be a funnel cloud, but could also be scud. Hard to say. Must say it doesn't feel particularly ripe out there, but we shall see

Odd looking, low hanging cloud base to my north. Fortunately sun poking through now to increase surface heating.

What a charming thread to walk into, with amazing photography. Autumn has always been my favourite season, and the above illustrates why.

Blimey just got caught by this! Literally nothing to monsoon in minutes

3 mins of daylight lost each day now, starting to be able to sleep in on a morning now

Thunder and lightning in dover now, not showing on lightning map for some reason though.

Hmmm ... ECM sticking to its general plan of getting the low in its favourite position between Iceland and Scotland, and then sticking it there. GFS is similar so that would have to be the preferred solution for now. Which means, for next weekend, incrementally better weather the further south and east one goes. - as usual. Could turn out rather good in the SE. With a bit of luck, some decent spells further north too but unlikely to avoid some sort of frontal activity. But, as mentioned earlier, still options for more settled throughout and less settled for all. We, the UK, ride the dividing line between summer and non-summer

GLAAM has stepped up a bit and looks to stay there, and good support for eastward MJO propagation from the Indian Ocean has emerged over the past few days. This should help mitigate the influence of the strong C Pac trades but by just how much is clearly very uncertain given recent model flailing. There is a discernable net trend toward more ridge influence from Europe which is encouraging, as is the fact that more complications to the Atlantic jet are more likely to help rather than hinder us next week (typically more complications emerge nearer the time), but these trends and tendencies are still fairly slight or tenuous so for now I'm remaining cautious with respect to getting my hopes up for later next week. A good shift toward more settled from ECM, which has the strongest C Pac trades and has - likely as a result - been most reluctant to settle things down, would be the best sign so far and start to raise the possibility toward a notable level. Fingers crossed!

I agree. I was really taken a back with the 12z runs thus far as like you say, there is much divergence even at 4 days out which is quite unusual. Even today has gone against the forecasts. We were meant to have quite frequent heavy showers up here but we haven't had one and it has turned out to be a half decent day. Something tells me there may be a few surprises this coming week.

The idea that the models can't be trusted is often overdone imo, but this really is one of the rare times where I'd say enjoy the sun and warmth on Monday and Tuesday, and then who knows where we go from there. The difference between the GFS, UKMO and GEM are so stark tonight not just for the middle of the week, but for the whole subsequent evolution. The GEM is even pushing the Atlantic trough backwards by Thursday, suggesting that a ridge may emerge over the UK to split the west and east troughs. In contrast the UKMO conjures up a low for Wednesday that I haven't seen modelled thus far. I think it's what you get in summer when there's a lot of slack pressure around, little forcing and small disturbances milling around aimlessly. I think @damianslaw 's post above has a couple of ideas that have a chance, but I think there are even more than he mentions. FI is T96 for me right now, and long term trends hard to see.

i agree with this, because usually once established, a pattern as described is hard to shift . its perfectly feasible that a trough dominated unsettled regime could last some time - i hope it doesnt, but the reality is the odds would favour a longer pattern rather then shorter.

The chicks have hatched at one nest, with another two broods on the point of hatching. https://www.birdguides.com/news/bee-eaters-hatch-young-in-nottinghamshire/