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Not surprised we're getting either N/NW or southerly options from the models. All modelling agrees in a displaced vortex over the Canadian Maritime. The issue here is how longwave troughs passing through this axis interact. If the get pinched off and closed upper lows form off Newfoundland, we get the NW option where the sub-tropical ridge (which is very displaced poleward right now) gets pulled NW. If the troughs remain broadly intact and sweep NE through the Atlantic, the Azores sits very close to the UK or even displaces just to our east. The sign and scale of the AO would be a good proxy here. More positive, the more eastward the sub-tropical ridge. More negative, the further west the sub-tropical ridge and cooler more unsettled for NW Europe. I'm playing the percentages here. Atlantic predisposition to troughing allied to a +AO (polar easterlies are the weakest since 1981) translate to better conditions for the UK. Also worth re-iterating that there remain issues for modelling in the longer term across the Atlantic just to our west. The flow is complicated and ripe for development of lows driving SE through ridges. All of which gives you better chances of ridges getting thrown up over or just east of the UK, particularly the closer we get to August (background signals become more cohesive towards this for August as opposed to July). Longer term modelling towards month's end does retreat the ridge more towards the Atlantic, which I think is not unreasonable given we are likely to wax and wane with this over a 10 day oscillation - not withstanding my comment above about small scale disturbances driving us towards warmer, drier solutions in the short range. So what follows a wane at months end is a waxing again, so Azores ridge + driving low to the SE part 2......

Following on from my promise yesterday, a look at the 500 mb anomaly charts. ECMWF-GFS first http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Both show +ve heights over Europe extending into Scandinavia and a hint of west from there. They also both make a lot of the upper low and have it quite close to NW'ern parts. The charts this morning are noticeably different to those from yesterday which showed ridging as the main feature, see below. Prior to yesterday they generally showed a westerly Atlantic flow into a trough east of the UK. So the charts yesterday were a bit different to most they have shown. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgt, so not much continuity here. Prior to yesterday comp.html The 6-10 version has really not much in common with the EC-GFS idea with a fairly slack Atlantic flow into a trough with its main feature being off Iberia. Only very small +ve heights shown.Its 8-14 does show more +ve heights superimposed on a similar contour flow. Not easy to make a summary of what this could mean for the UK in the 6-14 day period. The idea of a more settled spell again developing during next week seems a reasonable bet but as to how long less easy. The 500 mb charts, to me, suggest no major Atlantic influence but are not really convincing for a prolonged settled and very warm/hot spell of weather, even for the SE of the UK. NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I don't think there has been over optimism. Speaking for myself, and as posted on here, an improving scenario has been reasonable to anticipate heading from mid month to the last third and the models have followed accordingly till today. Let alone the average 'amateur' many professional agencies including the Meto have consistently agreed with this. With that in mind, I think its also wise not to write obituaries prematurely. There has been quite a stand-off between the dynamical models in terms of the tropics and evolution of convection forcing and this still isn't clear. The GFS has concentrated on retaining a weak Indian Ocean signal and the ECM a forward eastward progression. Eastward progression, as you imply, with added westerly winds to the atmospheric circulation means that atmospheric angular momentum is supported upwards and this helps the pattern downstream in terms of the dual between the troughing axis bleeding from the Canadian vortex and the northward displaced Azores High. Lower momentum plays to the +AO feedback being diminished and this assists the Azores ridge drawn westward and amplifying to the west accordingly - which means warm air advection occurring the 'wrong' side of the UK and allowing the upper trough to drop SE ahead if it. Or, with higher momentum, the pattern upstream becomes more conducive for the Azores High to head eastward as the Jetstream is angled more SW-NE and troughs tend to remain more intact across the NE Atlantic. In this way, a contasting pattern appears to the lower momentum scenario with the high thickness levels of the sub tropical high flooding further northwards. Such as modelled up till today I agree that tropical easterlies, or La Nina forcing, continues to be stubborn (against the backdrop of ENSO neutral) but the persistent propensity for cut-off lows in a difficult to model Atlantic and the fine line between upstream forcing c/o the tropics is to close to call in terms of the outlook and means a heck of a difference between Atlantic ridge/downstream trough and Atlantic trough/Western European ridge

Matt's made an extended synoptic guidance blog which is worth a read: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8286;sess=

Then just after midweek the Ecm 12z shows the warmth and humidity swept away eastwards by cooler / fresher atlantic air and low pressure to the north-west in control..then it starts to improve across the south as pressure rises..now I will shut up as it feels like I'm talking to myself. Ends pretty nice for southern uk under ridging with warmth and sunshine.

WOW, look at these juicy looking beauties

UKMO offers some interest with shallower lows and little in the way of consolidation into one feature that sweeps the heat away. Looks more of a very warm but thunder-showery setup... Much as per latest Met Office guidance

I was a bit concerned what the met office update would be like following the 00z output, especially the dismal Gfs 00z but there doesn't seem to be any downgrade at all. Next week is set to warm up with plenty of sunshine as high pressure builds in early next week followed by very warm / humid conditions across the south with a risk of thunderstorms. The far northwest could have another brief atlantic incursion but then settling down and staying warm / very warm nationwide and still a chance of thundery weather from time to time, especially further south. :- )

The ECM op fits fairly well with the GEFs version of events with a trough edging in after the middle of next week before pressure rises from the south/south west into the following weekend. GEFs ECM op With a deep trough over Canada which will move east during week 2, I can easily see another push north east from the Azores high, ironically for the east and north east this could potentially turn into an upgrade in prospects as we remove the option of the Azores high and Euro high joining up with low pressure to our south allowing a flow between the east and north and the usual north sea gunk that comes with it. Wednesday does look hot as others have said with 30C very possible. Beyond that, treat the output with caution as the models try to place different suggestions in terms of how that deep Canadian trough contributes to proceedings downstream over Europe. Strangely in my view this mornings ECM offers the potential for something much hotter than the output yesterday and whilst the GFS is more unsettled it does suggestwith a few tweaks that it could do something similar.

A quick look at the nh pattern on the ecm at T144 illustrates very well the amplification and the important role the Canadian vortex lobe is playing in all of this. Why this sudden spurt of amplification (if indeed it does happen of course) I've no idea, The chances are that by the end of the run we are looking at a return to a more familiar pattern although the strength of the the trough in the NW Atlantic is still a concern with the upper flow still likely to bring unsettled weather to the north. In the mean time back to a slack area of low pressure to south. This is the point where there the Azores should now ridge NE and we are back to a warm and settled end of July.

ECM doesn't turn out so bad in all honesty Don't get why we need to see searing uppers from the S when people can enjoy the strong sun and fine weather that set up would bring (more especially further S).

Yeah, so much for the heatwave..I'm joking of course..The gfs is not to be trusted, but then again, neither am i.

30C back on the charts again for the SE as early as this Sunday:

Feel free to vent your anger CC. Then at least it would be one less fanatical cold ramper nutter to bore the pants off of us genuine enthusiasts. And Sidney.

Can we keep the European and other world countries convective topics to the relevant threads please? It's a real pet hate of mine to come in here, and see stuff that is not relative to this country.

Not much to report today, still waiting for a good thunderstorm this year, although we finally had some decent rainfall yesterday. Really vibrant sundog earlier this evening though!

So far so good on Ecm 12z

I think you're right about that, WB...Whereas Karl's telling us what the models say, run-by-run, the MetO is telling us what (based on all the information that's at their fingertips) they think will happen... Reportage and interpretation are not the same thing...

I think that I would be surprised if they adjusted their forecast based on one particular run. They normally aren't as influenced as that. They tend to take a line and stick to it, presumably based largely on stuff that we don't get to see.

A vile calumny. There is nothing fictional about Sidney...why only this morning he was actively hunting for rampers as well as ordinary nuts.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean / operational both finish on a high note with the azores anticyclone looking strong going forward..hopefully as the saying goes, all's well that ends well!

Agreed, much prefer the Ecm 00z to either the Gfs 00z / 6z which show too much green snot for my liking..I would settle for this setting up a prolonged settled and warm / very warm spell.

Sounds like they are promoting ECM's run with a brief changeable period at the end of next week and through next weekend before the azores high ridges in again and sets itself up over us by the end of that week by the looks of the last ECM run. Hopefully the GFS will improve tonight but through the last two runs they seem set on promoting low pressure throughout the whole of the week after next so we'll see what it comes up with over the next few runs. The GFS is only one model though i guess as some of the other members have said but hopefully we get something akin to the ECM and Met Office's predictions for the next two weeks.

The EPS this morning shows the transient troughing next week that has already been discussed but quickly recovers towards the end of the period The Azores again ridges to the west and with positive anomalies north of the UK much of the upper flow is diverted NNE leaving a slack westerly over the UK with the trough to the south west remaining influential and perhaps receiving sneeky top ups from breakaway upper troughs . So the percentage play for the surface analysis could well see the Azores ridging to the north with all to play for to the south with shallow unstable lows drifting north. Temps warm or even very warm in the south. This remains the scenario into the ext period although towards the end the flow becomes more zonal as the Azores retrogresses west.

I'm still a flapper on occasion (plus internet on the move in Norfolk is like "really???" so I rely on phone comms with home - if Sir is awake anyway!). On the plus side I have a Vito so there's the added bonus of being able to rig a tripod inside plus a folding chair (see pic!) . I have some good park up places (all hard standing because we all know what the off road capabilities of an automatic van are like...)

Thanks John. Well as a southerner I should be quite happy with the charts - 6/7 days ahead of sunny spells and building heat, a welcome cooling off day next Thursday or Friday (and to give the grass a top-up) followed by probably yet more sun. But I'm frustrated at how difficult it is to get settled weather up to the north!! Yesterday, I'd have thought there was a 7 or 8 in 10 chance that the north was finally going to get a week of settled/warm weather (even allowing for a day blip). Today, I have to lower that to 5 or 6 in 10. Just consider how unlucky this chart is!! No greens at all from Greenland to pretty much everywhere - except for poor Ireland and Scotland. Actually, the ECM was on to this at the weekend, and then dropped it, but with a key difference that makes this morning's charts worse... which is that this morning's charts cut the low off. Whilst on the ECM archive charts above, the low is not undercut and is free to move off to the north, on today's GFS 00Z chart there would be a great risk of the low getting stuck, surrounded by good heights all around - until the Atlantic regroups, fuses with the UK low, and resets the normal pattern of greens covering the whole of the northern Atlantic and going back to a NW/SE split. This morning's charts really are worst case scenario. I think further runs today can only get better. There's still a very reasonable chance that this low will not do what the ECM/GFS ops suggest. Below are two ensemble members that I think also have a good chance of verifying. The first shows the incoming low failing to "cut-off". The result is one slightly less settled day next week before the low easily clears off and the Azores High ridges in nicely after: The second is that the low holds even further west - something we often see - keeping most of next week dry, sunny and warm except in Ireland and perhaps extreme western coasts - and maybe a couple of thunderstorms for all: Or thirdly, a quick move back towards yesterday's charts. But positivity definitely more restrained just now.

As opposed to someone who has a fictional squirrel as a friend?

Yeah I have to say I really don't get it. I have a bias towards heat and I love warm summery weather. I completely understand there are people who love the opposite (cold/snowy etc) and there are even people who like 13 degrees and slate-grey dross. We get benign, dreary weather for like 80-90 percent of the year, so i don't understand why the gloom lovers whinge so much when we get a little window of summer. It's pretty selfish IMO.

Everyone is allowed to have their preferences. It annoys me in winter when people take glee in mild crap that we seem to suffer endlessly. However if I was to vent my frustration at said posters I'd probably get banned! Truth is, some people will always find unappealing what you find appealing.

Laugh?..I feel like crying

Heat haters are like spoiled children - most of the year is cool and unsettled, and they whinge incessantly whenever the models show even a hint of something summer-like. Absolutely pathetic behaviour.

Oh fabulous, so there might now be low pressure, cool temperatures and loads of cloud and wind in high summer, how exciting! Can't have any decent warmth, can we? Some poor granny might feel ill (the same poor granny that would feel ill in a big freeze, but we can't mention that) but don't worry about the millions of other people trying to enjoy their gardens, sports, outdoor events, going camping, festivals, or holidaying in the UK in general. No, they can all suffer. It's summer, it's going to get hot from time to time and most normal people enjoy it.

Difficult to know what to make of the last couple of gfs runs so a perusal of the GEFS and in particular the ecm is definitely required but until then I'm inclined to treat with extreme caution. On the face of it seems to be producing some amplification with not good results. It follows the script until Monday with the breakaway upper trough splitting the HP in mid Atlantic but then it initiates the amplification with the Central European high pushing north into Scandinavia and, importantly, quite strong ridging over NE North America. This creates an upper low between Greenland and Iceland with the associated trough dominating mid Atlantic. Whilst at the same time the high pressure over the UK is moving east and the Iberian low is making a foray north. The twin surges of the ridges continues forcing the aforementioned upper low to track south east to be just west of N. Ireland by 00 Friday and consequently surface low pressure to the west and north west is tending to dominate the UK with fronts traversing the country during Friday. Best left here for the moment but just to mention the GEFS anomaly is not adverse to the Atlantic trough being centre stage.without being spectacularly anomalous.

A few links to the relevant threads: European Worldwide Let's keep this thread to UK based convection and storms please all

Certainly the Ecm 12z becomes very warm / hot and humid further south for a time with thunderstorms following a fine warm spell early next week.

Standard British summer set up looks to happen next week with a sinking low out west sliding south and pushing warm air north with the risk of t storms. As ever with this setups they vary each time and its pointless taking each run as it shows, even trying to find the trends with this type of setup is well tricky because various factors make massive differences. Sink it too quick, and no warm spell or one day. Sink it just right then allow a second surface low to spin up means a few days heat and thunderstorms Sink it perfectly with no secondary low and you have dry (maybe not) and a lengthy warm spell We won't know or even have a wild idea till very earliest Sunday. Buckle in....

I'd swap you your summer,at least you get one

Yes indeed GW Don’t worry about the huge Antarctic iceberg — worry about the glaciers behind it http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/natural-wonders/dont-worry-about-the-huge-antarctic-iceberg-worry-about-the-glaciers-behind-it/news-story/adbe0a024b862fbd2346f0e0dd1f2eb4

Maybe this time it will be different?

Of course they are and I will always defend people's right to their own opinions. Doesn't mean I can't express my annoyance at all the whining and spite though!

Trouble is it seems to be playing catch up to gfs,i have 2 weeks off from next friday 21st , i got loads of outdoor activities planned, cant begin to tell ypu how utterly hacked off im gona be if we are stuck under a ruddy trough.. Edit by day 10 it looks good, but it was wrong last night at day 7 so...

Always a bad sign when green snot approaches the uk..not what the doctor ordered!

Just for comparison with the CET and Edmonton figure, we are -1.7 below the 81 to 10 average in Hobart. It's a big enough margin near the middle of the month to barrack the month on to hold steady, so it ends with a nice cold mean. But being realistic, I don't even have to look at the charts to know that there is a very good chance that this cold monthly anomaly will be wiped away with a warm end to July...I have seen that story play out too many times! But here's hoping for a historically cold July!

GFS 18Z Control heads the same way.... but sure, its drunk too. Right? ((attached: GFS op 18z 180hr, GFS 18z control 180hr)) As for the GEFS in general, a trend away from settled weather gaining momentum with every new update, with the azores unable to build in.

Actually the best Ecm chart is day 10

Gfs doesnt make a quick recovery and to be honest it seems to leading the way at the moment, it started sniffing out this trough yesterday while ecm had us under high pressure...

I'd like a storm in summer, that'd be a start. I'll accept heat if it results in a good storm but we don't even see those that often anymore. As I said it's just bland bland and more bland and it has been for years now. I don't think anyone is celebrating that grim fact.

The ECM is very similar so far...surely this can't be going completely pear shaped? We've gone from a potential prolonged spell of warm settled weather with the anomalies seemingly coming on board, to now looking at maybe 1 warm day at best with the heat being swept away by Wednesday morning. You really couldn't make this up. The British climate at its worst.

Right, and that is nothing to celebrate in my opinion. If we get cool unsettled weather in summer and mild unsettled weather in winter, nobody wins - unless you like cold summers and mild winters.

17.6 to the 11th 1.8 above the 61 to 90 average 1.3 above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________________ Current high this month 18.0 on the 9th