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Showing most liked content on 09/06/17 in all areas

  1. 17 points
    Let me be clear: What Britain needs now is a strong and stable area of high pressure; 29-31C in the south and 22-26C in the north will do fine, IMO.
  2. 7 points
    Looking very good from both ECM and GFS for a spell of some very nice weather from mid next week onwards Almost as good looking as it was for Theresa May from a similar distance away! Let's hope the models serve us better than the polls did in terms of advising us how things will end up!
  3. 5 points
    We have good agreement now on the flatter outcome for mid-next week (pending the delayed ECM 12z), but this is in fact a case of 'lose a little, win a little' because the flatter jet encourages a strong north-eastward ridging of the Azores High by the weekend while also propelling a lot of warm air in our direction to accompany it. At that point the surface conditions will depend heavily on the position and shape of the high pressure. The GFS 12z opts for a very round area of HP that becomes just off the coast of N. Ireland by Sunday, with warm air aloft but a relatively cool surface flow off the N. Sea affecting many eastern parts - though I believe the impact is overdone by the model, and temps should be higher than the mostly low-20s being shown for western parts. The GEM 12z on the other hand has the high stretched right across from the SW as it maintains more of a classic extension of the subtropical ridge across the UK, and with uppers above 10*C for all but a tiny patch over the Solent, it looks capable of producing temps widely in the mid-20s, perhaps high 20s in the usual hot-spots. Going forward, GFS is still trying for a shift in the HP to sit west of the UK but with less enthusiasm than before, while GEM keeps abroad trough to the NW with the extended ridge nicely maintained (quite the flip from the 00z which developed blocking to the W and NW). Hopefully the ECM 12z will be more toward GEM 12z, just as the 00z was
  4. 5 points
    Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, no downgrade whatsoever since last night's 12z, we are still on course for a change to increasingly settled and very warm weather during the course of next week as the azores high builds strongly across the uk with plenty of sunshine and soaring temps as we tap into continental air with temperatures into the mid to upper 20's celsius for the southern half of the uk and warm further north too.
  5. 5 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an increasingly settled / warm spell developing next week as the azores high builds across the uk..a very summery spell looks like its on the way...flaming June.
  6. 4 points
    Evening gang ,really love coming on here for a good read .Iam following all posts most days ,usually when i take a break from nursing my beautiful wife who is very poorly at present ,heres hoping that current mid range models are correct that we could get our summer back soon . Just dont know where the time goes these days ,wont be long now till the winter of hell arrives .so onto the models and the positioning of any high pressure will be very critical ,it all could go bang with storms next weekend or just plain v warm and dry ,or even the high slipping away to open the door to our friend the Atlantic ,all very interesting ,take care all and enjoy our great forum ,the best on the Net , cheers
  7. 4 points
    It's very encouraging news from the latest Ecm / Gefs mean which both indicate an increasingly summery outlook next week and this is reinforced by the latest update from Exeter with a good chance of a hot spell towards the end of next week into week 2..and further ahead sounds very summery too with spells of very warm / hot weather, plenty of sunshine with a risk of thundery outbreaks, especially further south..it looks like this summer will deliver some superb weather!
  8. 4 points
    A very pleasing GEFS 6z mean as we look further ahead, especially from next midweek onwards with a strong surge from the azores high with increasing warmth and sunshine. The mean looks summery which is great to see for the mid / late June period with temps well into the 20's celsius, especially further south.
  9. 3 points
    More like ECM makes less of the ridge, not nothing - but it is indeed a more unstable run with a likelihood of thunderstorms across the SE in particular Sun-Mon. Signs of a new ridge from the west on day 10 although it would probably not be soon or strong enough to save the northwest from seeing a bit of rain off the Atlantic for a time. I'd say this is a more 2006-style approach as opposed to 1995-style. Looks sufficient for 30*C to be breached in the SE Sat and/or Sun given day-on-day heat build. It's an interesting but relatively low probability outcome given the close alignment of the other three. I don't ever dare to fully cast aside the ECM though.
  10. 3 points
    Whatever happens please can we be rid of this cloudy breezy/windy cold nonsense!
  11. 3 points
    Don't know why Sizzle is moaning given he's in Dorset which looks predominantly dry next week and increasingly warm as high pressure begins to nose in proper by Thurs/Fri (not Saturday). Taken in isolation it is disappointing to see a slight delay in the establishment of high pressure next week, but when you factor in the week we've just had, whichever way you look at it next week is better, with a ridge giving settled conditions for most on Monday, rain risk further north and west Tuesday with a ridge again Wednesday with showers further north Weds/Thurs. Friday and the weekend increasingly dry and warm for all. I guess some are just glass half empty people? Or throw glass at wall in a fit of rage people? Plenty to be positive about
  12. 2 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the azores high building in next week, especially later in the week bringing increasingly warm / settled conditions with plenty of sunshine, initially for southern parts before extending to most of the uk..it's classic summer weather as we gradually import hot and humid continental air north into the uk with a risk of T-Storms later, especially across the s / se..summery weather looks set to return.
  13. 2 points
    Evening All.... Ecm and gts show a pressure rise next week, in about a weeks time , ecm makes nothing of it ,gfs shows a bigger build of high pressure. Normal summer output....!!!
  14. 2 points
    Lol Huge difference at five days out, the GFS/UKMO have the jet blowing through the south of the UK, the ECM takes it north of the UK. ECM by day 7 looks like it could develop a proper UK heatwave with a strong broad ridge. Still looks like it will slowly turn settled from the south west, though its progress northwards is still in question and the eventual position of the high doesn't look overly ideal.
  15. 2 points
    I think the high will be worth waiting for, in the meantime it doesn't look too bad, some fine and warm weather to enjoy before the main event!
  16. 2 points
    Indeed there is some fine warm weather at times next week for the south of the uk before the major anticyclone builds in..looking very good to me. :- )
  17. 2 points
    Have a great holiday,im off to greece in august to escape the british summer weather tbh...anyway looking pleasant and dry,in the southeast at least...
  18. 2 points
    Plenty of lovely high pressure from later next week onwards with warmth and sunshine on the Gfs 12z.
  19. 2 points
    You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs. (Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.
  20. 2 points
    Awesome and unexpected storm tonight, lots of flashing, rumbles and the odd strike to ground! Totally unforecasted
  21. 2 points
    Moderate rain and currently 9c.The reason I know this is were woken by a terrible noise outside the house which appears to have been a fight between badgers or a cat and badgers although to dark to tell. One cat rescued from hedge and we now know the reason the dog was growling earlier this evening as badgers seem to be patrolling round the house every night just now.
  22. 2 points
    a long funnel cloud just past Calshot spit...pretty close...past quickly...the wind was a high roaring sound.
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
    9th June 2017 Medium Term (8-14 days) Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK next week with High Pressure ridging up from the South West, with a west to South Westerly flow. By the end of Next week, High Pressure bang on top of the UK (1025mb). The majority of the runs now have High Pressure for the run up to the festival, some with the High Pressure to the NW and a cool Northerly flow, so mostly dry if rather cool for June. After the gates open Three of the runs show High Pressure over or ridging over the UK for the Wednesday. Most of the GFS keep things mostly settled for the festival, but some Low pressure nearby at times. NOAA Charts High Pressure over the UK on both charts. Total Rainfall All 4 GFS runs have total rainfall for the Glastonbury area below 15mm over the next 16 days, so all currently looking dry for the run-up to the festival. Ensembles After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, and pressure remaining above or around 1020mb until the 23rd June, perhaps drooping a little over the festival weekend. Rainfall amounts are looking very low for the duration of the run. Thoughts Currently looking good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise. Some uncertainty over the festival weekend itself, but generally a good outlook.
  25. 1 point
    I guess you are using a recent 30-year average to calculate this, but also what's your definition of cool month, any negative anomaly or one greater than some criterion? I had a look at the anomalies of all years relative to the means for the entire period 1659-2016, which are JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC 3.3 ___ 3.9 ___ 5.3 ____ 7.9 ___ 11.2 __ 14.3 __ 16.0 __ 15.6 __ 13.3 ___ 9.7 ___ 6.1 ___ 4.1 Against that set, one year (2005) managed to score a positive anomaly in all months, the closest being 0.1 against November. Second was 2002 which had one zero and all others negative (July was 16.0). Third place went to 1834, 1949 and 2004 (one month at -0.2, it was April for 1834, March for 1949 and July for 2004). The recent warming is illustrated by this frequency count of below long-term-average months have occurred in the years 1989 to 2016 (2017 has added none of course). Out of 28 chances, the frequency of negative anomalies is: JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC __ 4 ___ 7 ____ 4 _____ 7 _____ 5 _____ 10 ___ 8 _____ 6 ____ 5 _____ 3 _____ 4 _____ 7 This is an average of 6 or about 22%, also there were nine months that were right on the long-term averages. Several years failed to produce even one above long-term average month. The most dismal was 1879 (March fell short by -0.6). Next came 1692 (April came closest at -0.4), then 1698 (September falling -0.3 short), 1799 (-0.2 in June), and 1695 when December was just -0.1 below. The lowest statistics from the post-1950 era was 1.0 in 1962 (Jan) and 1.1 in 2010 (July).
  26. 1 point
    Back home after my Reykjavik & Toronto trip. Weather in Reykjavik was grim, windy and raining most of the time with temps in the 10c-13c range. Kind of late October, early November weather here. Much better in Toronto with plenty of sun though not especially warm, about 20c-22c (more like 32c this coming weekend!) Back home and it's been the wettest few days since I moved to Broughty Ferry. Got soaked in St Andrews leaving work a while back. Not used to all this rain after such a dry spring!
  27. 1 point
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021 agree, next week looking fairly average, westerlies to dominate, would say 17° and showery all week for this location, 20° expected in SE
  28. 1 point
    I've always thought that it's the 18Z that's called the 'pub run'?
  29. 1 point
    New ice hasn't been forming there, so "growth" isn't really an accurate term to use. What's happening is part of the reason why extent is currently only 3rd or 4th lowest while the volume of ice is lowest on record by a long way - the winds have been pushing the ice south into the Barents sea. Giving us essentially a very thin, spread-out pack that is hugely vulnerable to a rapid melt out this summer. Below is the wind direction anomalies for the Arctic with the northerlies down the Barents sea quite a notable feature for early May At the same time we can see that volume is lowest on record by quite a margin despite the extra coverage moving into the Barents sea. So yeah, in essence that blog comes across as another climate denier attempt at misleading. I can provide a more through debunking of it when I have time at the weekend.
  30. 1 point
  31. 1 point
    It's not raining now - at last - but it's as dull as erm a tory voter's imagination and the cloud base is pretty low. And that's a nice picture above here, CMD.
  32. 1 point
    Had a small storm last night at 11.30pm. Counted five flashes and one rumble on the first flash. I think it sideswiped us which is why I could see the subsequent flashes light up the room but was too far away for the rest of the thunder to be audible. The rain was really heavy which was nice. Sent me to sleep. A storm loving mate of mine who lives to the south of Sevenoaks said it came right over him and was very loud.
  33. 1 point
    I dont think you need to look at extent figures to figure out just how serious things are getting on the pacific side of the Arctic. The polyna on the siberian side is just extraordinary and totally against any other years wirh 2011 the only other year which looks similar but no where near as bad as it is now, really think now open water could be recorded so far North in places that usually dont see any open water until very late in the season quite soon and the forecasts look pretty poor also. Any hint of a pattern change gets pushed back and if this continues then i cant see anything but a record low occuring. Atlantic side of the Arctic may stay steady but i much rather have more ice on the pacific than the Atlantic side. There is a chance of seeing genuine true ooen water at the pike this year i feel.
  34. 1 point
    No comments this morning? You'd think there'd been an election or something! Still good trends, but subtle differences starting to emerge as to how quickly the high builds, and how it ends up sitting over the UK. GFS quickly pulls the high out west and cools things down, but this ends up as one of the coldest ensemble members: Plenty still anchor the high and keep it warm. It probably won't be until after the weekend we get firmer details, as there is quite a bit of ensemble spread from day 4/5, which will translate into the extended parts of the runs being wrong.
  35. 1 point
    The sunrise was gorgeous this morning: Today should be fairly decent here but tomorrow looks damp and breezy for many of us.
  36. 1 point
    The front cells were certainly IC in my area. I couldn't get east quick enough to get a clear view after this, I guess I missed out.. Much better than I was expecting though and I agree the radar looked great
  37. 1 point
    There was a massive thunderclap here in Dover earlier, it woke a lot of people up (evidently from bedroom lights going on). Some pretty heavy rain right now too.
  38. 1 point
    Lots of visible lightening here at the top of the hill in New ash Green - Cloud tops look a little away to the east - say M26 bound- first storm for me here
  39. 1 point
    Had about 4-5 flashes and rumbles here. Still can't believe it as I wasn't expecting much in the way of rain let alone thundery activity
  40. 1 point
    Just seen a few flashes of lightning outside my window but only heard a distant rumble.
  41. 1 point
  42. 1 point
    I don't know but was a surprise to me, now hearing thunder.
  43. 1 point
    Just saw some IC out toward east London from my 10th floor office view in west London
  44. 1 point
    Yeah, seems that nocturnal cooling is helping this lot to keep persisting. Heading northeast, fairly quickly by the looks of it.
  45. 1 point
  46. 1 point
    Hi Paul and Tom,hope you don't mind the screen grab from clip two
  47. 1 point
    GFS on the left still giving us a hard time as it breaks a low away east from the main Atlantic trough and so keeps the jet flatter and in fact travelling right across central UK. A shallow low is also generated over France which moves NE to Scandi where it encourages the ridge to take on not the greatest of orientations for warmth as it finally manages to build through the UK over the following few days. UKMO keeps things simpler with no breakaway Atlantic low and nothing consolidating over Europe anywhere near the UK, but we do see the ridge showing more sign compared to previous runs of the extended ridge breaking in two. Any split-off would be likely to stall somewhere close to our east and gain some strength as the Atlantic trough drives warm air over it aloft (which then sinks and reinforces the ridge). We'd warm up a fair bit but be at risk of a thundery breakdown occurring before long. It's probable, though, that the trough out west would align similar to what the ECM 00z showed at +168, in which case the Azores High will extend a new ridge to the NE to join with our current run and something similar to that ECM run would follow. - that being a run that showed an outcome that was a bit flatter than the UKMO 12z but without the breakaway low of the GFS 12z, which is optimal for a fast-track to warmth without sacrificing stability. Hopefully the 12z ECM won't follow the GFS 12z with it's irritating complications. I know the 00z yesterday was along similar lines so the outcome likely remains among the EC Ens. somewhere. Seems like we often struggle to achieve those nice neat transitions to a fine spell, but there's still plenty of hope at the moment. Oh and GEM's nice again, for anyone wondering; +144 is close to the UKMO 12z but slightly to the NW with the ridge position, which suggests to me that the reinforcement from the SW remains more likely than the split-off scenario
  48. 1 point
    What appeared to be a frosty sunset last night at 7c turned out to be true as its now very bright at 1c with a ground frost. Very topsy turvy weather we are having. Grass is very crunchy.
  49. 1 point
    I remember seeing this picture on Flickr at the beginning of December 2010.. it's of Cookridge Street in Leeds. I always thought it was very atmospheric. Almost like it was taken 100 years prior.
  50. 1 point
    This year is starting to feel downright malicious; having a May that favours spreading out of increasingly thin ice when it was already thin to start with, and then following up with an early-mid June dominated by 'warm blocking' and a Pacific dipole pattern is like a super-villain's master plan to destroy the Arctic atmosphere and ecosystem. Even the smaller details leading up to the June misdemeanors are just right for maximising the level of impact; Day 4 and a ridge centred over the Pacific side joins forces with an elongated trough to send some exceptionally warm (in fact quite hot) air (850s are a reasonable guide here) through Alaska and right over to the Aleutians.Meanwhile blocking over Barents/Kara works in conjunction with a shallow low moving a little west of north toward Greenland to send a wide wedge of unusually warm air through Scandinavia. This one sees more in the way of modification from residual snow cover but not by a lot so it'll still pack a serious punch at the surface as it moves over the 'easy ice' on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Substantial losses may occur in the space of just a week. Day 5 and troughs simultaneously moving into place over N. Canada and the Siberian coastal Arctic act in combination with the blocking to form a bridge of both high pressure and exceptionally warm air. Even allowing for extensive surface modification I can see a large proportion of the CAB experiencing above-freezing temps at least intermittently. Day 6 and the lows have not merged across the N. Pole which would be a good way to cut-off the warm air influx. Now I do still see this as something that could yet manifest after all, but with GFS having moved away from it after considering it on previous days, the chances of that have unfortunately become much lower over the past 24 hours. Only right out at day 9 do we finally see a low moving across the CAB to interrupt the anomalously warm spell... well, mitigate it at least. - but look at that fat finger of exceptional warmth through the ESS... this has been a feature of many recent GFS runs (see 06s and 12z on right), and a source of much disbelief among followers of the Arctic sea ice progression, yet now we have ECM showing something just about as dramatic! This being as the strong blocking behind the Pacific dipole chooses eastern Asia as a vacation spot, while the seemingly eternal central-Asian/Siberian trough activity continues to throw warm air across to that region from SW/S parts of Asia. Back when I was doing studies in Reading, I can recall seeing a reconstruction of sea ice in the 1950s in which one of the early years had a sharp dip in ice extent. I have since found that 1953 saw a similarly persistent central-Asian/Siberian trough well into the year. If my memory is accurate and this isn't just a coincidence... well, it doesn't bode well at all for the Arctic sea ice this summer