Jump to content

Leaderboard


Popular Content

Showing most liked content on 09/06/17 in all areas

  1. 17 points
    Let me be clear: What Britain needs now is a strong and stable area of high pressure; 29-31C in the south and 22-26C in the north will do fine, IMO.
  2. 7 points
    Looking very good from both ECM and GFS for a spell of some very nice weather from mid next week onwards Almost as good looking as it was for Theresa May from a similar distance away! Let's hope the models serve us better than the polls did in terms of advising us how things will end up!
  3. 5 points
    We have good agreement now on the flatter outcome for mid-next week (pending the delayed ECM 12z), but this is in fact a case of 'lose a little, win a little' because the flatter jet encourages a strong north-eastward ridging of the Azores High by the weekend while also propelling a lot of warm air in our direction to accompany it. At that point the surface conditions will depend heavily on the position and shape of the high pressure. The GFS 12z opts for a very round area of HP that becomes just off the coast of N. Ireland by Sunday, with warm air aloft but a relatively cool surface flow off the N. Sea affecting many eastern parts - though I believe the impact is overdone by the model, and temps should be higher than the mostly low-20s being shown for western parts. The GEM 12z on the other hand has the high stretched right across from the SW as it maintains more of a classic extension of the subtropical ridge across the UK, and with uppers above 10*C for all but a tiny patch over the Solent, it looks capable of producing temps widely in the mid-20s, perhaps high 20s in the usual hot-spots. Going forward, GFS is still trying for a shift in the HP to sit west of the UK but with less enthusiasm than before, while GEM keeps abroad trough to the NW with the extended ridge nicely maintained (quite the flip from the 00z which developed blocking to the W and NW). Hopefully the ECM 12z will be more toward GEM 12z, just as the 00z was
  4. 5 points
    Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, no downgrade whatsoever since last night's 12z, we are still on course for a change to increasingly settled and very warm weather during the course of next week as the azores high builds strongly across the uk with plenty of sunshine and soaring temps as we tap into continental air with temperatures into the mid to upper 20's celsius for the southern half of the uk and warm further north too.
  5. 5 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates an increasingly settled / warm spell developing next week as the azores high builds across the uk..a very summery spell looks like its on the way...flaming June.
  6. 4 points
    Evening gang ,really love coming on here for a good read .Iam following all posts most days ,usually when i take a break from nursing my beautiful wife who is very poorly at present ,heres hoping that current mid range models are correct that we could get our summer back soon . Just dont know where the time goes these days ,wont be long now till the winter of hell arrives .so onto the models and the positioning of any high pressure will be very critical ,it all could go bang with storms next weekend or just plain v warm and dry ,or even the high slipping away to open the door to our friend the Atlantic ,all very interesting ,take care all and enjoy our great forum ,the best on the Net , cheers
  7. 4 points
    It's very encouraging news from the latest Ecm / Gefs mean which both indicate an increasingly summery outlook next week and this is reinforced by the latest update from Exeter with a good chance of a hot spell towards the end of next week into week 2..and further ahead sounds very summery too with spells of very warm / hot weather, plenty of sunshine with a risk of thundery outbreaks, especially further south..it looks like this summer will deliver some superb weather!
  8. 4 points
    A very pleasing GEFS 6z mean as we look further ahead, especially from next midweek onwards with a strong surge from the azores high with increasing warmth and sunshine. The mean looks summery which is great to see for the mid / late June period with temps well into the 20's celsius, especially further south.
  9. 3 points
    More like ECM makes less of the ridge, not nothing - but it is indeed a more unstable run with a likelihood of thunderstorms across the SE in particular Sun-Mon. Signs of a new ridge from the west on day 10 although it would probably not be soon or strong enough to save the northwest from seeing a bit of rain off the Atlantic for a time. I'd say this is a more 2006-style approach as opposed to 1995-style. Looks sufficient for 30*C to be breached in the SE Sat and/or Sun given day-on-day heat build. It's an interesting but relatively low probability outcome given the close alignment of the other three. I don't ever dare to fully cast aside the ECM though.
  10. 3 points
    Whatever happens please can we be rid of this cloudy breezy/windy cold nonsense!
  11. 3 points
    Don't know why Sizzle is moaning given he's in Dorset which looks predominantly dry next week and increasingly warm as high pressure begins to nose in proper by Thurs/Fri (not Saturday). Taken in isolation it is disappointing to see a slight delay in the establishment of high pressure next week, but when you factor in the week we've just had, whichever way you look at it next week is better, with a ridge giving settled conditions for most on Monday, rain risk further north and west Tuesday with a ridge again Wednesday with showers further north Weds/Thurs. Friday and the weekend increasingly dry and warm for all. I guess some are just glass half empty people? Or throw glass at wall in a fit of rage people? Plenty to be positive about
  12. 2 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the azores high building in next week, especially later in the week bringing increasingly warm / settled conditions with plenty of sunshine, initially for southern parts before extending to most of the uk..it's classic summer weather as we gradually import hot and humid continental air north into the uk with a risk of T-Storms later, especially across the s / se..summery weather looks set to return.
  13. 2 points
    Evening All.... Ecm and gts show a pressure rise next week, in about a weeks time , ecm makes nothing of it ,gfs shows a bigger build of high pressure. Normal summer output....!!!
  14. 2 points
    Lol Huge difference at five days out, the GFS/UKMO have the jet blowing through the south of the UK, the ECM takes it north of the UK. ECM by day 7 looks like it could develop a proper UK heatwave with a strong broad ridge. Still looks like it will slowly turn settled from the south west, though its progress northwards is still in question and the eventual position of the high doesn't look overly ideal.
  15. 2 points
    I think the high will be worth waiting for, in the meantime it doesn't look too bad, some fine and warm weather to enjoy before the main event!
  16. 2 points
    Indeed there is some fine warm weather at times next week for the south of the uk before the major anticyclone builds in..looking very good to me. :- )
  17. 2 points
    Have a great holiday,im off to greece in august to escape the british summer weather tbh...anyway looking pleasant and dry,in the southeast at least...
  18. 2 points
    Plenty of lovely high pressure from later next week onwards with warmth and sunshine on the Gfs 12z.
  19. 2 points
    You can easily guess why I'm absolutely delighted just now with current HP domiinated trends across the outputs. (Hint : big Somerset event, last week of June) But of of genuine interest currently, even to non-Glastonbury goers is J10's daily updates, with a lot of synoptic detail and analysis, in the 'Glastonbury 2017' thread on the 'Spring and General weather discussion' forum.
  20. 2 points
    Awesome and unexpected storm tonight, lots of flashing, rumbles and the odd strike to ground! Totally unforecasted
  21. 2 points
    Moderate rain and currently 9c.The reason I know this is were woken by a terrible noise outside the house which appears to have been a fight between badgers or a cat and badgers although to dark to tell. One cat rescued from hedge and we now know the reason the dog was growling earlier this evening as badgers seem to be patrolling round the house every night just now.
  22. 2 points
    a long funnel cloud just past Calshot spit...pretty close...past quickly...the wind was a high roaring sound.
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
    9th June 2017 Medium Term (8-14 days) Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK next week with High Pressure ridging up from the South West, with a west to South Westerly flow. By the end of Next week, High Pressure bang on top of the UK (1025mb). The majority of the runs now have High Pressure for the run up to the festival, some with the High Pressure to the NW and a cool Northerly flow, so mostly dry if rather cool for June. After the gates open Three of the runs show High Pressure over or ridging over the UK for the Wednesday. Most of the GFS keep things mostly settled for the festival, but some Low pressure nearby at times. NOAA Charts High Pressure over the UK on both charts. Total Rainfall All 4 GFS runs have total rainfall for the Glastonbury area below 15mm over the next 16 days, so all currently looking dry for the run-up to the festival. Ensembles After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, and pressure remaining above or around 1020mb until the 23rd June, perhaps drooping a little over the festival weekend. Rainfall amounts are looking very low for the duration of the run. Thoughts Currently looking good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise. Some uncertainty over the festival weekend itself, but generally a good outlook.
  25. 1 point
    agree Frosty/Karl, lets hope that high pressure makes it later on in the week so everyone...(well more or less) joins in
  26. 1 point
    I've always thought that it's the 18Z that's called the 'pub run'?
  27. 1 point
    Wooo! It's my 40th birthday and so far Tresemme has lost her majority and the Glastonbury weather is looking great Just one more week... this time next Friday I'll be onsite.... please let it be a sunny dry festival....
  28. 1 point
    UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Jun 2017 to Friday 23 Jun 2017: As next week progresses settled conditions are likely to extend across the United Kingdom with some sunny spells developing, but there may be occasional spells of rain across the north and west, where it will be breezy at times. Feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, especially in any sunshine, and it could become very warm or hot in places over the weekend, particularly across the south. Into the following week, and it will probably remain settled at first, but there are signs that more unsettled conditions are likely to develop. These more unsettled conditions may well be preceded by thundery downpours, particularly in the south, where temperatures are likely to remain very warm or hot. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  29. 1 point
    It's not raining now - at last - but it's as dull as erm a tory voter's imagination and the cloud base is pretty low. And that's a nice picture above here, CMD.
  30. 1 point
    Had a small storm last night at 11.30pm. Counted five flashes and one rumble on the first flash. I think it sideswiped us which is why I could see the subsequent flashes light up the room but was too far away for the rest of the thunder to be audible. The rain was really heavy which was nice. Sent me to sleep. A storm loving mate of mine who lives to the south of Sevenoaks said it came right over him and was very loud.
  31. 1 point
    Got woken unexpectedly by a really loud crack! Plenty of lightning including some good close CG's. A very nice surprise!
  32. 1 point
    The sunrise was gorgeous this morning: Today should be fairly decent here but tomorrow looks damp and breezy for many of us.
  33. 1 point
    Where did that come from, like others watered the garden to make sure things didn't totally dry out due to the wind. Woke up to a major thunderstorm lots lightening, plenty of rain, almost overhead That must be around the 5/6th thunderstorm this year so far, pretty good seeing as early June.
  34. 1 point
    Incorrect I was on the hills just outside of Hythe and there were numerous strikes to ground... Great radar returns too!
  35. 1 point
    Torrential rain and lot's of lighting & thunder really wasn't expecting this don't know what to wacht the storm or the film we started watching lol 3rd. Storm in a couple of weeks.
  36. 1 point
    There was a massive thunderclap here in Dover earlier, it woke a lot of people up (evidently from bedroom lights going on). Some pretty heavy rain right now too.
  37. 1 point
  38. 1 point
  39. 1 point
    In Cuxton here with a great view to the south, getting a good light show.
  40. 1 point
    Lots of visible lightening here at the top of the hill in New ash Green - Cloud tops look a little away to the east - say M26 bound- first storm for me here
  41. 1 point
    Had about 4-5 flashes and rumbles here. Still can't believe it as I wasn't expecting much in the way of rain let alone thundery activity
  42. 1 point
    absolutely hammering it down now. It took me ages to water the plants this evening if I knew this was going to arrive I would'nt of bothered....lol
  43. 1 point
  44. 1 point
    Just saw some IC out toward east London from my 10th floor office view in west London
  45. 1 point
    Been darn sarf for a few days, got wet repeatedly. Visited youngest HC in Edinburgh on the way home today and got drenched just looking for a cafe. Home this evening, got hosed just unloading the car. Garden flourishing, house cold. Not complaining, yet.
  46. 1 point
  47. 1 point
    8th June 2017 Medium Term (8-14 days) Slowly turning more settled for Southern parts of the UK with High Pressure rising albeit with a westerly flow to start the week. At this stage it seems likely that this High Pressure will build over the UK by the end of next week. This High Pressure though generally modelled to last into the following weekend. In the immediate run up to the Glastonbury, there is a wide variety of options with no real certainty. After the gates open Three of the runs shows High Pressure over or ridging over the UK, over the course of the festival, three of the runs have low pressure at some stage, with one keeping High Pressure in control. NOAA Charts 6-10 day charts shows dominant High pressure over the UK, while the 8-14 day charts shows a ride of High Pressure over the UK. Total Rainfall All 4 GFS runs have total rainfall for the Glastonbury area below 25mm over the next 16 days, so currently looking pretty dry. However slightly further north is much wetter, so a slight word of caution. Ensembles After this weekend, pressure rising with pressure over 1025mb, this only slowly dropping back with more uncertainty around the festival start, average pressure back to 1015mb. Rainfall amounts are looking low for the duration of the run. Thoughts Currently looking quite good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise.
  48. 1 point
    GFS on the left still giving us a hard time as it breaks a low away east from the main Atlantic trough and so keeps the jet flatter and in fact travelling right across central UK. A shallow low is also generated over France which moves NE to Scandi where it encourages the ridge to take on not the greatest of orientations for warmth as it finally manages to build through the UK over the following few days. UKMO keeps things simpler with no breakaway Atlantic low and nothing consolidating over Europe anywhere near the UK, but we do see the ridge showing more sign compared to previous runs of the extended ridge breaking in two. Any split-off would be likely to stall somewhere close to our east and gain some strength as the Atlantic trough drives warm air over it aloft (which then sinks and reinforces the ridge). We'd warm up a fair bit but be at risk of a thundery breakdown occurring before long. It's probable, though, that the trough out west would align similar to what the ECM 00z showed at +168, in which case the Azores High will extend a new ridge to the NE to join with our current run and something similar to that ECM run would follow. - that being a run that showed an outcome that was a bit flatter than the UKMO 12z but without the breakaway low of the GFS 12z, which is optimal for a fast-track to warmth without sacrificing stability. Hopefully the 12z ECM won't follow the GFS 12z with it's irritating complications. I know the 00z yesterday was along similar lines so the outcome likely remains among the EC Ens. somewhere. Seems like we often struggle to achieve those nice neat transitions to a fine spell, but there's still plenty of hope at the moment. Oh and GEM's nice again, for anyone wondering; +144 is close to the UKMO 12z but slightly to the NW with the ridge position, which suggests to me that the reinforcement from the SW remains more likely than the split-off scenario
  49. 1 point
    I remember seeing this picture on Flickr at the beginning of December 2010.. it's of Cookridge Street in Leeds. I always thought it was very atmospheric. Almost like it was taken 100 years prior.
  50. 1 point
    Plums, conkers, hawthorn berries, apples; Autumn's here already if you know where to look !!
×