Leaderboard

As much as the trend from the ECM, GFS and UKMO models has slowed the weekend low and kept it further northwest, GEM remains distanced from them with a much quicker weakening of the Atlantic low with the plume hanging on across much of the far-S right through until late Monday. A slower ridge arrival next week is the price paid, but it's still on a par with ECM even though in that case it's due to how that model keeps the jet so flat across the Atlantic until Thursday with a very shallow disturbance finding its way across to interfere with proceedings. Anyway - I'd be amazed if GEM was victorious at such short range, but I am inclined to see some further slowing down of the warm air removal as a probable trend in the other models, in which case GFS and UKMO may also slow the ridge arrival next week but frankly I'd be very happy if it arrived by mid-month and then tended to stick around or keep on reloading for the following 10 weeks or so... is that too much to ask for?

I've lifted this from the in depth model thread as it seems pertinent in view of the lovely 12Z run from the GFS. Nice assessment from GP, all based on teleconnections. You are suffering the 2007 bit currently (get it out of the way quick ) but the 1995 redux is showing in all its glory from next weekend. Just a reminder of what the charts looked like for back then. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=15&month=6&hour=12&year=1995&map=0&region=&mode=2&type=era

I think you will like this latest chart better still in the extended UKMO N.Atlantic. C

Thanks for the detailed round-up @Tamara , I keep losing track of the GWO/GLAAM developments as - ironically - I spend so much time working on other areas of research and development . So while on the face of it the model trend this evening resembles a backing-down from having shown too much of an MJO phase 6 response, this is really more of an overdone IO forcing by GEFS (in particular) that happens to bear close resemblance. The usual horrendously large negative GLAAM bias beyond about a week's range. At least knowing of that I was expecting an improvement in that model's output anyway . So now we have two models (UKMO and ECM) moving the weekend low very slowly through to Sun with the SE tasting the fringes of a continental plume - at the risk of some destabilisation impacts perhaps, depending on the interplay with the base of the trough (i.e. with associated upper convergence and divergence regions). GFS remains more progressive but has trended slower over the past four runs. As if for a laugh we then have ECM flirting with a Scandi trough more than the other two, but this looks to be driven not by a GFS-like overcooking of IO forcing but instead a more meridional jet ahead of the large-scale deceleration. This could just be the model showing it's amplification bias - though the range is a bit short for it to be a major factor. For 8 days from now, the evening runs feature one very pleasant outcome, one rather cool but drying up and trending warmer afterward as the ridge drifts east, and one with an impressive blocking high sat right overhead (thanks to split jet setup as explained by CreweCold earlier). Not bad going at all Interesting that it appears GEM may well have some of the negative GLAAM bias that GFS does, though it's also known to over-amplify so the true balance of play is somewhat mysterious.

The beebs thoughts on Sunday for high pressure to move in next week are starting to show now on more than one run

UKMO shows high pressure moving in by Tuesday

Still an unusually large range of minimum pressure values being produced for the low affecting the UK noon Sunday; GFS is near 992 mb whereas UKMO is around 998 mb and GEM 999 mb. So GFS is responsible for most of that range at the moment - I wonder which end of the spectrum will ECM align with? Probably neither; slap bang in the middle for ultimate lack of clarity It's an important detail as it determines just how strong the breeze is during the weekend as well as how quickly the warm sector moves away east. So a big impact on how warm or not it feels across the UK. Of course the SE will be warmest of all and could see temps several into the 20s on Sunday if the warm sector hangs around long enough. It should be cleared by Monday though; GEM has backed down on the lingering plume-like outcome. Question now is whether the models are still taking the mid-Atlantic poleward amplification too far. GFS has reduced it for mid-week but increases it for the rest of the week. GEM is just more amplified overall (model bias?).

I remember seeing this picture on Flickr at the beginning of December 2010.. it's of Cookridge Street in Leeds. I always thought it was very atmospheric. Almost like it was taken 100 years prior.

I am very much liking the way the models seem to be in general agreement with their predictions for mid-June: GFS 12Z: ECM: GEM: Dont know what UKMO might have up its sleeve because they won't let us see that far ahead! If the patterns still look like this in a few days time we would be very close to a warm settled spell of proper summer weather. I wonder if the current unusual degree of consensus between the models means that these predictions are pretty much in the bag? I have to say that a change from the current windy, wet, showery, quite cold (and did I say very windy) weather will be exceedingly welcome in these parts.

The ecm mean is a lot better than the 0z,at 240 hrs we have the best ridge of high pressure at 1020 than the rest of the world at our latitude,bring it on

Wish you guys would speak english

Okay so ECM is notably slower to move the warm sector away on Sunday, enough so that the mid-20s look feasible in the SE corner. It then turns into a very progressive run, so quite the contrast to GFS and GEM. As tropical maritime air is thrown east across a wide swathe of anomalously warm waters that lies adjacent to the western coastlines of northern Africa and western Europe, the usual heat build is accelerated and some impressive temps result after just a few days. It's because of this manner of logic that I can see why some long range outlooks highlight an increased chance of extreme temperatures across NW Europe this year. Having that include the UK is another matter - and one that may divide opinion on here given that record-challenging temps = dangerous temps for human health. The heat build potential is similar to that of 2015, but that year we had cooler waters in the vicinity of the UK plus interference from a developing El Nino, which both played their part in driving a strong jet stream along the major temperature boundary between the hot continent and cool seas. It only really broke once, and boy did we know about it (30th June to 4th July, peaking 1st July). I do feel ECM is being a bit overly mobile with those lows this evening though - a slower build-up of heat seems more likely. I also wonder how easily we can achieve the level of stability required to avoid quick thundery breakdowns. Hopefully the similarities of the Atlantic-Europe sector patterns with those of 1995 will bear fruit in that respect.

It was a shall we say an interesting trip today to work . My trip got diverted due to trains cancelled. When I got off to wait for the bus it seemed like monsoon season it was driving rain and I kid you not there was around 10 dumped broken umbrellas at the bus stop. Anyway on the way home I dodged the showers but did get this shot of a shower and rainbow nearby . The rainbow was very low in the sky it actually surprised me .

Not sure how to describe today, but bloody awful certainly fits the bill. Amazing scenes earlier around here with felled branches, flooding and heavy rain making this afternoon's road journey very tricky. My garden rain gauge has measured 27 mm of rain today (over an inch in old money). Here's a photo taken on the way back later this afternoon. The continuous rain had cleared to be replaced with some heavy showers. And still blowing a hoolie this evening! We were meant to get this in April not June!!

If you are not a fan of heat,look away now,the 12z gfs is a corker and would make for a nice birthday present ok,the 850's are not that warm but it is miles better than prevous runs,i just hope this trend continues and not be a warm outlier.

Relentless rain here too, given the dry May its a welcomed deluge indeed Some pics pre-Saturday's thunderstorm to add to skifreak's cracker from the river ness, these taken above the town at bogbain. Had an apocalyptic vibe

Started the day in Limon Colorado and ended up in Tucumcari. One storm had a little rotation and another formed a funnel cloud but didn't have the necessary to touch the ground.

I don't think we should be too downbeat at the models this evening/tonight,at least they are showing a dry scenario and the models(as they do) wether it be winter or summer etc do have wobbles and will not be precise this far out if it is a hot spell you are looking for,the trend is an HP cell somewhere close to or near to the BI now i have just looked at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500mb outlook from NOAA and i have got to say it is looking a lot better than last nights where there was some ridging through the uk then building north to allow a southerly tracking jet,tonight however has more of a Hp influence on the uk and the 8-14 dayer has a southerly fetch,i am a little bit happier with this than last night's as it stands,trough to the west and HP cell building east of the BI,loverly and again,you can't knock the mean from the ecm,pretty similar to last nights

Evening all .So we all want Summer and yes gfs gives us it for a while later next week ,but ecm is not so responsive...watch the gfs follow the ecm tomorrow

They look almost ready to fledge, PM. I still don't know the location in the garden of my Wren's nest, but the male continues to sing from various posts.

You can say that again just look at mainland Europe!

ECM not bad either, not as high pressure dominant as other runs and the previous 2, but does scoop up some very warm air towards the end of the run. Too far out for exact details at this range, but the right trend is emerging.

Good view ,lol

7th June 2017 Medium Term (8-14 days) As per yesterday’s forecast - Remaining mostly unsettled this week, with west to South West winds favoured towards the weekend, with Low Pressure in control especially Saturday with moderate rain currently modelled. Next week sees Higher Pressure ridging up from the South, however this is not quite as dominant as yesterday with some runs delaying the building of the High Pressure towards the High Pressure build towards the end of next week. However this may be a blessing as the weekends is looking more High Pressure dominated. ECM tends to follow the theme of unsettled this week, before slowly turning more settled form the South and South West next week. This High Pressure though generally modelled to last into the following weekend. The GFS dally runs tend to suggest High Pressure around the UK to start the festival, but with lowering confidence over subsequent days, but nothing massively unsettled. NOAA Charts Pressure continuing to rise on both charts with a ridge of High Pressure over the UK. Total Rainfall Three of the 4 GFS runs has total rainfall around 15-20mm next 16 days. With the other around 35mm of rain, with the majority of this set to fall by end of this coming weekend, It is looking like a pretty dry run up to the festival. Ensembles Conditions unsettled over the next few days with some moderate rain at times, however after this looking much drier until the festival, and largely dry. Average Pressure rising to over 1020mb by early next week, and remaining there for over a week, and dropping slightly to 1015m by the end of the run. Thoughts Currently looking quite good for at least a good build up to the festival weather wise.

Just been in the outhouse and the Wren chicks are 'chilling' happily together. With there mother chirping away in the plantation at the bottom of the back garden.

Apart from a light shower mid morning it's been a dry and windy day with sunny spells. The wind decreased to a moderate breeze by early evening. At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 14.0c Max today; 16.0c Min last night; 8.4c Grass min; 8.0c Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; Trace Sunshine today so far; 6.01 hrs Mean wind speed; 18 mph W Highest gust today; 59 mph W/NW at 0526 g.m.t 7 oktas Ac and Cu humilis Vis; over 80 km.

That's what I like to see

The 06z is nothing special with termps refusing to reach above 21c.

14.2 to the 6th 1.0 above the 61 to 90 average 0.7 above the 81 to 10 average __________________________________________ Current high this month 17.1 to the 1st

You wouldn't have thought we had the rain we did yesterday outside. It's glorious (OK Breezy) complete comtrast though to yesterday's washout

Very windy this morning but at least the rain has stopped. River Don at the end of the road looking quite full, but within it's normal banks. Fells chilly in the wind, almost like a December day from the last few winters.

Was out running at about 1.30 yesterday afternoon in the rain. Had the thermals on it was that chilly! Today, looking at my back garden, you'd think there hadn't been a drop which I guess underlines how dry it's been prior to that.

Morning all - This mornings runs thankfully reinforce last nights output, in that high pressure builds in and settles things down & warms up. The runs vary in the time it takes to bring the high pressure in, but all eventually get the job done. Summer could be making its return in a week folks.

SEPA have more flood warnings out for eastern Scotland. There is also a new tool for the public to add local flooding details. REPORT-A-FLOOD http://www.floodlinescotland.org.uk/report-a-flood/

They need new graphics so hope there will be a overhaul. Bored with the current ones.

Oh!! yes baby

Not amazing pics, but they are anvils of storms that are missing me.

A very windy day here with moderate sometimes heavy rain which is now slowly clearing. The wind has downed a few branches on the back lanes and the bedding plants in the garden are damaged to with some gusts touching 52mph. Edit- 29mm of rain.

Just had a small thunderstorm pass through Ashford, saw a few CTC but didn't record any footage. But I did take a few pictures of the wonderful Mammatus clouds today under 2 storms

An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atmosphere in better shape for sure than the usual suspect seasons of more recent years that went on to replicate todays rank offerings time after time. Best re-state that again for any who might be on doom-watch Tropical convection has tracked eastward through the Maritimes towards the West Pacific and the associated rise in atmospheric angular momentum tendency encouraged amplification of our downstream ridge ahead of the Atlantic trough in the closing period of May. The Global Wind Oscillation ( which is a representation of total global wind-flows as depicted through ebbs and flows in the jet-stream ribbon) has echoed this pattern with a decent amplitude Phase 4 orbit (to the very start of the month). This is a pre-cursor Nino phase (Nino phases are 5,6,7) and appropriately reflects a peak bandwidth of our neutral/slightly +ve GLAMM ocean>atmospheric circulation coupling The result, for many, a very pleasant 10 day spell of summer-like weather which rounded off a warm and very dry Spring as a whole. However, the MJO signal is abruptly aborting on its eastwards trek and losing signal back towards the Western Hemisphere. The atmospheric response is immediately to scrub the westerly winds added to the atmosphere through the eastwards moving tropical convection (and which had triggered the downstream rossby waves that amplified our Western European ridge). At the same time, after a flip from the seasonal final warming of the stratosphere had seen low heights percolate through the stratosphere right down to the tropospheric level during much of May, there has been some (temporary) low level tropospheric warming developing again, related to seasonal changes between the arctic and mid latitudes (especially in view of the unstable arctic sea ice) The nose of small orange shading (weakly positive height anomaly) depicts this on the bottom of the plot as we start June This has been mirrored by enough of a higher latitude blocking signal to depress the jet stream southwards, engage a steep temperature gradient to fuel secondary lows, and also squeeze out the mid latitude Euro ridge far enough away from us to, largely, shunt the hot and humid tropical continental plume elements of the warm air advection ahead of these depressions into mainland Europe. The SE corner maybe edging the periphery of the higher plume content of the WAA created by the last low, in the on-going chain, this weekend - and which looks to sharpen ahead of its approach in the Atlantic more than its predecessors. As atmospheric angular momentum tendency snaps back with the loss of the upstream eastward moving tropical forcing signal to the weak and indeterminate state back in the Western Hemisphere, then the consequent easterly winds added from the tropics as a result of this depress frictional torque (leading to negative tendency also in mountain torque). This exchange from the tropics (MJO) to the extra tropics ( including mountain torque) is what determines the changes in AAM tendency and jet stream wind-flow which change the weather patterns across the hemisphere. In terms of translating the Global Synoptic Dynamical Modelling (GSDM) to simple NWP synoptic pattern, this process decelerates the jet stream from upstream in the Pacific and across the US - and the sequence of lows is halted as pressure rises across from the Azores and mid Atlantic in the vacuum created by the abrupt deceleration of the jet. The models are now advertising this change quite clearly heading into next week but handling it differently in some cases. I think that the GEFS, prone as it is to West Hemisphere/Indian Ocean tropical forcing bias (and weaker than ECM in terms of modelling the extra tropics) has been susceptible in the last day or so to overdo the signal for amplified Atlantic height rises (as well as arctic heights). Taking into account the fact that the stratosphere/troposphere profile (above) continues to show a cool anomaly quite far down, and that background GLAMM is buoyant, this precludes and rather contra- intuitively questions a low angular momentum response that suggests building an amplified Atlantic ridge to our west and retaining the departing trough into Scandinavia straddling back towards the UK resulting in a cool possibly showery NW'erly. On that basis the current ECM and GEM 10 day ensemble means are good value for the background signals with the Azores ridge stretching eastwards and the default trough overspreading back into the Atlantic - effectively re-setting the default trough/ridge pattern (not Atlantic ridge/UK/Scandinavian trough). Updated GEFS suite still a more amplified Atlantic ridge and stubborn stronger Scandinavian trough, but starting to re-adjust the departing weekend trough away quicker to the NE and the incoming ridge closer to the UK Probably pleasantly warm with low humidity - the orientation and position of High very likely not far enough east for any plume scenarios These are the graphical representation of the latest ECM ensembles for London - representative enough to support the idea of some pleasant average summer warmth through the mid month period Looking further ahead, subject to return of the tropical cycle eastwards once more, that sets up the prospect of another heating trend occurring through late June, as the ridge by this time edges back to the east to re-engage the trough as recently. Therefore more heat and humidity possible as time goes on - more especially late June and into July So reasonable prospect of some fine pleasantly warm weather to banish this weeks dismal offerings to the perspective of a temporary if unwelcome memory - though the trough may return close to north western parts at times. Latest ECM 4 weekly shows continuity from previous updates and reasonably reflects steady improvements for second half of the month and especially late month and into July .