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The above post from Nick is well supported by the 500 mb anomaly charts I inferred yesterday. They have not been consistent which is why I have hesitated to post them about a week ago. Latterly though they are coming to a more reasonable concensus to the ridging developing in the upper air pattern to the north west of the UK. See the links below for how they show this in the past 24 hours. NOAA 6-10 link and the 8-14 is very similar, hence my comment 24 hours ago that it may be a spell of colder weather say 5-10 days or so. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and the ECMWF-GFS output this morning now supporting this view, with regard to the ridging positioning.. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php On both sets of charts the actual height of the contour immediately south of the UK looks to be about 552 DM so not desperately cold for early March at height and with a very long sea track. Remember though these are 'average' charts and individual charts over a 24-35 even 58 hours could well be from a more NW area and thus colder. One thing it does not look like being a 'warm' 2 weeks which is what some of us would prefer!

Parts of a post I made last Monday looking ahead into early March and although model guidance is still fumbling around with the surface synoptics in the medium range they are generally converging on the upper/500mb pattern with the +ve height anomaly over Greenland and Iceland with troughing underneath as I highlighted from the EPS/GEFS mean 6 days ago. The lag effects of MJO P8/1 and the stratosphere warming / PV displacement IMO likely the precursor to the +ve heights around Greenland and Iceland. Although I have lost the appetite now to hunt for snow and cold + the operationals aren't overly keen on lowering heights / developing troughing further east across central/eastern Europe, which keeps low pressure to the SW and a milder S to SWly flow at times, there is scope for pushing low pressure systems further east into Europe to our south in the medium range, 00z EC high res attempts too days 7-8 before trough disruption stops it. 00z EC high res, at day 10 keen to extend Azores ridge NE toward UK, however the EPS z500 mean and the EPS mean and spread suggest perhaps emphasis towards lower heights to the SW than the high res In the shorter-term, upper low dropping SE across UK and EIRE Monday / Tuesday brings quite low heights across the UK. Fax chart for 12z Monday shows the 528 dam line moving into the west, steep lapse rates with the low heights/cold air aloft, so will be some heavy showers with hail, thunder and even some sleet and snow in the heavier burst across the north and west - as dew point lower from the west in the chilly Pm westerly flow 00z ECM on weatherbell indicating snow for western hills on Monday (Wales, NW England, western Scotland), then perhaps a more organised area of snow moving SE across southern Scotland and far N + NE England Tuesday morning which could be tied in with a trough / front moving S /SE as winds turn more Nly for a time So don't be surprised to see some snow flakes early next week across the north and west, though settling snow moslty confined to hills daytime, though some spots in the north may see brief settling to lower elevations Monday night.

Ensembles not without interest today trending colder than average with some increasing cold clusters occurring too Always interested in this data as a precursor to colder weather If it is March when we see our coldest period of weather of the winter, so be it. There isn't a lot we can do to reverse it

Looking more likely for some kind of blocking Iceland towards Greenland on the 500 mb anomaly charts, regardless of the variations of the synoptic outputs. Will post the links tomorrow morning. Period 6-10 days from now, possibly 5 days or 120 h for it to start showing. Possible for 5-10 days duration as a first estimate looking at how they have moved over the past few days. Not my cup of tea so it s not a biased cold view. I would prefer a warm spring!

The JMA says no to spring and has the Jet running across the far south with Greenland heights establishing

Quite a significant pattern change forecast by all models for the start of March, with heights building to our NW, and the longwave trough making a direct beeline for the UK with the jetstream taking a more southerly path, locking much of northern half of the country on the cold side for the foreseeable future - hence a very disturbed cyclonic type spell of weather to end winter and start spring, indeed a major change from the generally anticyclonic pattern that has held greatest influence over the last 6 months or so. In this set ups, expect sudden trough formation, and secondary low developments with convection spawning sudden downpours and shower activity. It looks predominantly chilly for the north, with temps average at best, trending colder than average probably, further south nearer average, perhaps a bit above at time. Lots of snow for the scottish mountains, indeed the ski resorts will be very happy, but perhaps a bit too late to salvage what has been a very poor season snow-wise. Whether we are seeing a sustained pattern change remains to be seen, but recent years have seen sudden pronounced switches in short spaces of time against long term background trends, we've been in a settled dry spell since July, quite lengthy and notably dry and quiet overall.. I'm reminded back to April 2012 the last time we saw a major switch from a lengthy dry settled spell to a very unsettled wet spell lasting a good 6 months.. mmm lets hope we aren't staring at an equivalent April - Sept 2012 spell.. but I've commented before many a time how recent decades have seen lengthy dry periods followed quickly by lengthy wet periods with little variation.

The problem with a southerly tracking jet when Greenland heights are not strong is that it just leaves much of the UK under the influence of successive Atlantic lows,thus a wet and windy regime with frequent frontal systems traversing the country. Really only the Scottish highlands are likely to see meaningful snowfall in the chilly air up there. The real cold is locked to our north down to about 60N where the -6/8C uppers lurk No sign of northern blocking strengthening sufficiently to bring a taste of Winter any further south so we are looking at a mobile westerly unsettled spell going into early March. My least favourite set up,wet and chilly at times but nothing out of the ordinary temperature wise.I think after a week or possibly two of this i will be willing the return of some mid-latitude blocking around the UK.

It does look like Spring will start off wet, no point celebrating that weak high as all it is doing is sending low pressure further south across most of the UK instead of being diverted further north. So it does look wet with temperatures near average. I can't see anything wintry or mild/warm in the outlook at the moment. Not a great day today with a lot of cloud and increasingly gloomy skies as the day has gone on.

Oh THAT F word. Lol

I have a feeling that northern uk, especially the hills / mountains will be enjoying the best cold and snow of the winter / early spring at times during the next few weeks or more with a more southerly tracking jet..at last some joy for the Scottish skiing industry!

Hi Malcolm / @Blessed Weather - funny enough I booked this week, and having said I was going to go for a hidden gem in Europe, I did completely the opposite in the end and am back off to Whistler! The Alps felt like a punt snow wise, and although the Pyrenees was favourite for a bit as the snow there at the moment is great, I thought there was a risk of very spring like conditions if milder sw'ly winds took hold later in March. Val Cenis does look really nice though, so I'll definitely keep hold of that article as a reminder next time I'm looking! I'll report back on conditions in Whistler when I go - looks great at the moment, and March is often a very snowy month, so ought it ought to be fun

One to watch is Tuesday with the potential for a fairly widespread deep low with both the central belt of Scotland and London down to around 985mb

Pressure build over North America as the vortex starts to capitulate In the medium term it is about what happens to the pressure build to our North ECM GEM ECM slides it VERY quickly s/e in to the Continent GEM has a slower progression which pulls in continental winds

This morning the GEFs continues the evolution previously indicated The Aleutian ridge retrogressing and the vortex moving NW with associated Aleutian trough. Still a trough influenced zonal Atlantic with high pressure Greenland/ Iceland. Ergo a strong jet running east out of the southern states so a tendency for the unsettled weather to continue but things are slightly more complicated because the HP to the NW and a Scandinavian trough to the NE come into play with a fairly slack pressure area with perhaps a little NW/N drift. Back at the ranch. Once the wet and windy weekend is out of the way the beginning of next week sees the expected amplification with the ridging mid Atlantic and the upper trough sliding SE bringing a large complex area of low pressure over the UK. This basically sets the scene for the pattern for the next week with high pressure over Greenland/Iceland and the Atlantic dominated by a series of troughs and a strong jet the unsettled scenario will continue with periods of wind and rain interspersed by drier interludes. Temps average

After many days of removing the block the GFS is now going for a full on reversal of westerly winds around 60N with an extreme -AO ( circa -5 ) on the 18z - significant cold in the mid lattitudes- ... could we be unlucky again ?? Thats an extreme chart- not quite perfect for the UK

So true, find it strange how some feel March 1st means a sudden switch to Spring warmth, March can be a very chilly disturbed month, looks to me like a rather cold unsettled first half to March with temps around average at best.

Following all the unsettled trough domination the Ecm 00z has a happy ending with a nice ridge of high pressure.

This morning the EPS has the pattern changing somewhat as it progresses from the 5-10 period.with the vortex becoming less intense and more diffuse but more to the point by the end it erodes the HP in the Greenland and to replace it with a trough into the eastern Atlantic. So although the zonal Atlantic remains the dominate feature with temps tending to be a little below average in the UK this set up is probably more inclined to some wintry Pm incursions.

Wintry Gfs 18z low res with snow for many!..don't give up it could still be a very interesting March for coldies!

Fife this morning. Suffice to say I am smiling. A lot

Met Eireann have named the 5th storm of the season Storm Ewan is due tomorrow into Monday The met office have issued a yellow wind warning Issued at: 18:04 on Sat 25 Feb 2017 Valid from: 11:00 on Sun 26 Feb 2017 Valid to: 06:00 on Mon 27 Feb 2017 A small area of very strong winds is likely to move northeastwards over parts of the northwestern half of the UK. The area of strongest winds will arrive over northwest Wales late on Sunday morning and clear the northeast of Scotland on Monday morning. For many a short period of gusty winds are likely with speeds perhaps reaching 70 mph in exposed locations whilst inland parts are more likely to see isolated gusts of 50-60 mph. Some disruption to transport is possible. Heavy rain may also prove an additional hazard. An area of low pressure is expected to begin developing to the west of the Republic of Ireland on Sunday morning before moving northeastwards across Scotland. This will generate some very strong winds to the south of the low centre. However there is a lot of uncertainty over the exact track and depth of this system and therefore the strongest winds. Covers: Central, Tayside & Fife, Grampian, Highlands & Eilean Siar, North West England, Orkney & Shetland, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, Strathclyde, Wales http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Jma to the rescue? I guess there's a first time for everything.

The beeb's week ahead forecast earlier mentioned the possibility of a 'potent low' later next week One to watch for sure

I have made a graph of the extreme heat days experienced over summer in Australia's 8 state and territory capital cities. Summer is about to finish and these will be the final numbers. I have used the 40 degree mark because Weatherzone have supplied the historical averages. I have then gone to the BOM site to count up the numbers for each city going back to the summer of 2000 which didn't long. I should point out that there were a few high 30 degree days ( such as 38s and 39s ) in Adelaide and Perth which traditionally get a few 40 degree days, but also in Sydney and Melbourne which happened to fall short this summer. Adelaide and Perth sometimes get 40C days in November and March as well, but obviously I haven't included those shoulder months. Season 2016/17 40C+ days Adelaide............6 days....( historical average 3.2 ) Perth.................4 days....( historical average 2.7 ) Canberra............2 days....( historical average 0.3 ) Melbourne..........0 days....( historical average 1.5 ) Sydney..............0 days....( historical average 0.4 ) Brisbane............0 days....( historical average 0.3 ) Hobart...............0 days....( historical average >0.1 ) Darwin...............0 days....( historical average 0 days )

Erm.. There is also something come out of no where for Tuesday, short but rough ukgust.webp

We only get a rain shadow here when it's cold enough for snow.

Cloudy and breezy day here in Haverhill Suffolk. Not quite as mild as the west Country so feeling distinctly chilly in the gusty winds. An unsettled week ahead for East Anglia with a strong 200+ mph jet stream overhead. I do expect another potential wind storm next week, so will be watching the models with interest. Everything but the kitchen sink possible for the next 7 days with sunshine, heavy showers, thunder, hail and gales at times. No early signs of Spring this year.

Some more random shots of life down at the lake yesterday including Sidney and the magpie

This youngster is determined to spoil the party.

Wheres all the Snow? Looked at the Braemar snowgate web cam, No Snow. We have had some very mild sunshine down south with all the daffs out and the grass growing already, another early Spring. Coming up to Scotland in April, love your part of the world, you are very lucky to live in such a nice unspoilt part of the world. Good Health to you all.

A dull and grey start here with spots of rain. Currently 6.8C after an overnight min of 3.9C. Luckily it's a Six Nations Rugby weekend to cheer up the day. This afternoon is Scotland v Wales from Edinburgh and I'll watch it in my local with a few fellow Welsh friends. The Landlord reserves two tables in front the telly, one for each team. The Scottish lads who use the pub are great fun and for the game they will be fully dressed up in Scottish colours and tam-o-shanters; even a kilt has made an appearance before now. I'll be wearing my Welsh rugby shirt and scarve. It'll be great fun whatever the result!! Back to the weather. I've been watching the GFS output this last few days and the headline for the first couple of weeks of March is shaping up to be 'unsettled and often wet'. Not counting today's weak front (or just plain, showery days) I counted 8 distinct fronts crossing the Region over the next two weeks on this morning's 0z run. So at the moment the indications are that March might well rectify any shortfall in winter rainfall that some locations have been experiencing.

More from the lake yesterday - lift off

12C Last sub 2C March in 1883. Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

I'm just about keeping faith frosty , it's been a hard slog this year because of the promise that was showed late autumn and the beginning of winter . Keep up the good work mate and if it don't snow thets chase that first 20c spell . Off to Aus for a family holiday soon so I hope to get my heat blast for the year .

The anomalies have been nothing if not consistent over the last few days and this continues with the theme they have been running tonight. High pressure over the Aleutians, intense Canadian vortex with the negatively tilted trough into the Atlantic and the cut odd upper high cell Greenland/ Iceland area. There is a strong jet running out of the southern states running south of the trough driving systems east but in the strong westerlies which may stall somewhat as they near the UK and track more NE but still an unsettled outlook with temps varying around the average. In the ext period the Aleutian high weakens and drifts west; the vortex likewise drifts north and a zonal westerly flow remains over the Atlantic with still some ridging in the Greenland/Iceland area. Ergo still a westerly with the same caveats as before just west of the UK Temps possible trending a little below average for this period.

Nothing unusual tbh. With the Arctic at its coldest, early March is often Atlantic dominated. Things can change very quickly though and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one anticyclonic spell before the month is out.

We had a visitor down at the lake today - a Tufted Duck

I really wish March 1965 was in the last 50 years!! I'd be younger!

the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late November the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early December the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid December the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late December the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early January the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid January the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late January the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early February the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid February the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late February the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early March the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards mid March the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards late March the possibility of a prolonged cold spell towards early April Frosty.....I'm nearly ready to call "house" on the potential of this winter.....

A Time-lapse of New Zealand’s Glowworm caves as they have never been seen before. Filming this involved sleeping in caves for multiple days in complete darkness with just the sounds of the cave to keep

An interesting article in the French press today, discussing the impact of climate change and the year-round hard work piste service teams are now putting into keeping resorts skiable. Extracts: In ski resorts, snow gardeners face the climatic challenge Offering skiing with less snow ... this is the equation solved by the heroes of this winter with the drought and the record warmth.... At 2,000m altitude, in La Plagne, this 30th of January, Météo France measures a thickness of 50 cm, the lowest value ever recorded. This (was an) unprecedented season..... with no significant precipitation between November and January...... yet 80% of the runs were open. Before the 1990s, there were seven to eleven snowy episodes of more than 40 cm (of snowfall) compared to three to five in a winter today. At the time, the tracks were cut like a clod of butter (but) they were less worn by the passage of skiers. Today, it is necessary to manage the scarcity of a raw material that wears out faster because of a higher instantaneous attendance (of skiers), enhanced by the (increased) flow of the ski lifts. Today, in a ski resort, the role of the piste service teams takes on a vital importance. It was absolutely necessary that the (underlying ground) surface changed to keep more snow and to enable skiing on a smaller thickness. If, in the alpine pastures it is necessary to reprofile the ground, we remove the stones, sometimes removing the pebbles one by one with a rake or with small mechanical shovels.... to get a ground without rough edges. We also increased pastures with cattle to mow (keep the grass short). Today, on a well prepared and (cattle) grazed trail, one can open a station with 10 cm of cultured snow and 10 and 15 cm of natural snow ". Above, the big job of the piste team in Courchevel last December before the ski world cup. Full article in French: http://www.ledauphine.com/loisirs/2017/02/20/gestionnaires-de-l-or-blanc

This run could be a stonker if it aligns correctly, a right belting similar to 8th Dec 1990 could occur. Didn't turn out quite as I had planned but still a right old tonking at the end though.

The Gfs 18z shows at least some snow in the forecast next week, especially further north and on hills with some frosty nights too..a wintry flavour to the end of winter and start of the meteorological spring.

Can you name some other February storms of the past similar to Doris? I'm really struggling to think of one.

Pretty horrible charts for anyone looking for anything settled in all honesty- I really can't recall such an Atlantic dominated outlook in late February. Not sure where the energy is coming from for all these deep depressions.

I think you can safely say that low solar and Arctic Amplification will figure large in next winters forecast. If you look at the 'broader strokes' of what low sea ice has been driving over the last decade and weave that into what reduced sunspot numbers means for NW Europe and you'll not be far wrong! It is only now , at winters end, that my predictions for winter are starting to falter but for the rest of winter there were not too many surprises!

Here are some photos from today in Wirral.

Given the extraordinarily poor integrity of the ice (not captured by sea ice extent measures), I expect it would take a cool, cloudy/foggy sort of spring like I believe 2013 had in order to bring 2017 on a par with 2008-2011 for example. A 'regular' spring of weather would keep 2017 close to or a little below the currently record-low values of 2016, while a spring similar to that of last year would leave the ice in a state of degradation some way beyond anything ever witnessed on approach to the summer solstice. I am concerned that given the poor structure to a lot of the ice, even a relatively short spell of exceptional warmth in the early-mid spring could open up enough leads to greatly increase the proportion of solar input being taken up by the oceans during the following peak solar months during clearer periods. Given the scale of the difference in energy transfer between ice and water surfaces, it would take a lot of cloud to prevent a net increase in heat uptake... but I daresay last year came close, with the spring uptake perhaps proving the more significant for how the autumn panned out in terms of ice extent and quality. So it's possible that the increased moisture flux provides a negative feedback that buys the Arctic a bit more time... but I wonder if tropical forcing could still override that and produce a sunny summer month at some point akin to July 2015? I sense that we are one such summer month (perhaps May at a long stretch) away from sea ice being sent into freefall. Even if that doesn't happen we have the impact of strong storms, benefiting from the increased heat and moisture availability, to worry about - another reason why the integrity of the ice is so important. The current colder weather across a large part of the Arctic is looking unfortunately short-lived, but welcome nonetheless. The 7-16 day period is looking uncertain with signs that the jet will trend south but with low heights tending to remain in the Canada-Greenland area which threatens to set up a long-fetch southwest flow from the Atlantic side should high pressure develop over Scandinavia as per some recent model runs. On the other hand, the mild air might just sail right on through Europe, underneath a wedge of higher heights, while on the Pacific side there seems not to be much of a poleward heat flux threat on the cards, and there are signs that a block over East Asia could lift some deep cold out of Central Asia and send it across the Arctic, which would be a nice booster for the sea ice. So as yet I can't see any reason to anticipate things leaning one way or the other with respect to the scenarios I outlined at the start of this post. There remains reasons to be hopeful and that'll do me for now

A connection from Arctic stratospheric ozone to El Niño-Southern oscillation http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124026