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Showing most liked content on 25/11/16 in all areas

  1. 30 likes
    It’s not been a good 23hrs nick. 7 pages last 23 hrs shows a distinct lack of excitement. Last nights 18z showed its face and was given short shrift, so no' lock in' on that pub run, most members went home well before closing , saying well its better than a Barlett Those pesky short waves remained creating merry hell. The GFS ops were all over the place one too many whiskies. So a new day , Black Friday……Very apt Remember GFS charts 0Z 6z and 12z charts crawled back to a ECM solution yesterday. Unfortunately, the UKMO ended up in hospital alone, when the GFS 12z should have joined it, Which is a reminder, let the updates run their course before knee jerk comments after 4 seconds into the run. These have consequences for the models and the very early summary by members for the 12Z were far too positive. Today GFS 0z,6z, s*** more back tracking then Donald Trump and the northerly has gone to bed But Wait GFS 12z makes up for yesterday’s crap and gives us a northerly at T210 and a hurricane at T264 , its saying to us. Will keep these F***** on here till May. ECM showed lots of cold air around, wow ! not here though, ‘maybe a easterly T168 ?’ Nope its sh** . If your looking for cold ignore the most reliable model recently. Even at T240 it shows mild. Hospital food awaits for that F*** model. GEM + amplitude+ short wave lets see how that goes at T168. UKMO may work with a few tweaks , sure dynamite required Models are all over the shop, there will be wild swings, sometime defaulting to normal, sometimes showing dramatic deviations from the normal.(no sh** Sherlock) Where is that high going to settle next week watch this space.? Folks talking of front loaded winter went into hiding today… mid December late December is now in vogue for cold Tamara patience is the key and some other stuff. Cold 2/10 (2 for background signals) On a positive note Dzalinda (Russia) forum members are horrified at the lack of diurnal range. got a max of -38.8c and minimum of -44.9c yesterday poor sods.
  2. 9 likes
    Huge fan of this page, but already beginning to see exhaustion setting in. I have learnt so much in the last few years by reading between the lines and trying not to get hung up on the one liners. Having been a follower of this for a good few years, here is my take on the model output at moment. The swings are huge. From deep deep cold to mild mush, there is of course a huge difference to this time last year. This time last year we had absolutely no signs of cold, this year we have a vortex which has been on holiday, unable to decide where it will go for a number of weeks. The feeling I have is that we could be on the cusp of something great or just get caught in no mans land frustrated as cold pools vere into the mid atlantic. I love a good storm, but I am really not seeing where this jet will become mobile in the short term. Is exciting and I think a chill pill needs to be handed out, if as has been said by we minutely look at each run four by GFS then it is frought with danger. please don't let the sniping and one upisms get your backs up this could be a hugely exciting winter period
  3. 9 likes
    Keep the faith, I think the MetO have a tone of confidence, ironically the short-medium range is causing more of a headache, I'm not a fan of this erratic behaviour in model output but this is typical when cold solutions wants to bubble to the surface. I'm fairly convinced there will be no proper cold spell early Dec a northerly snap is all, good if it rocks your boat. In real wintry blasts they're usually the first to pick it up. Throwback to December 2015? Not to fret it will be gone come the next one
  4. 9 likes
    To be honest, the models are all over the shop, there will be wild swings, sometime defaulting to normal, sometimes showing dramatic deviations from the normal. I believe this is a consequence of records low sea ice, record cold Siberia, QBO being stuck and lack of PV organisation. It is unprecedented, and believe we have hit a tipping point in the climate which cannot be resolved by the models.
  5. 7 likes
    More support growing in the GFS 12 Ens for the Northerly. It not over to the fat lady sings
  6. 6 likes
    Regarding longer term potential, all I can recall from the EPS is Bluearmy reporting a lack of height rises to the NW to accompany the Euro low anomaly that was there until recently. That was a sign that even if we saw the jet digging south it would be hard to get a decent cold spell going; the potential was never that great, with those wild GFS runs showing a major west based negative NAO working out well for us being an extreme answer to what could possibly occur with a low anomaly in Europe ans Canadian blocking. It always looked a bit fantastical. Trust me, what we've danced with for late Nov-early Dec potential wise is a mere shadow of what exists for mid-late Dec... and yes I do have to include 'late' because by default we tend to focus on the earliest possible realisation time for cold weather potential. Remember, we've hardly even got started with this silly season
  7. 6 likes
    I have said this before ,i will take what the main models say out to 168 hrs ,as thats a week away ,tomorrows rum or should i say run will most likely be different again , i think perhaps the GFS as been on the Rum the last few days .Perhaps for now we are better off with nothing too cold or snowy in the charts ,just let things mature a bit and just wait to see what pops up more towards mid december , so another cliff hanger of a day , we are controled by computer weather models gang , great posts great forum , Stellas all round cheers .
  8. 6 likes
    ECM never really loses the high pressure upto 168 on this run - the high looks to be slowly edging north now so could be decent long term. High is dry, that's good for a start - with plenty of frosts.
  9. 6 likes
    Haha, if I was on holiday and that was forecast, I'd unbook it, might sound sad but I couldn't miss it for anything , extreme snow lover here haha
  10. 5 likes
    Cold could come back with a vengeance towards mid month - I know he is only saying it could , I mean it could be really warm - however coldies hang off every word at this time of year...do they know something we don't , well quite probably!!!
  11. 4 likes
    Well it does evolve closely to the ec46 which can't be a bad thing going forward in my opinion, this extended run increases the likelihood of amplification to our west in the 10/15 day period and a potential polar split thereafter with the aleutian ridge strengthening.
  12. 4 likes
    We've been hearing that the long range ECM modelling has been suggesting heights to the N and NW of the UK for about 3 weeks now. It has translated to absolutely zilch of note up to this point and medium range modelling & ensemble products take us through the first week of December with seemingly zilch on the table (from a deep cold POV). I'm certainly reigning in my enthusiasm for now .
  13. 3 likes
    COULD BE RUN OF THE SEASON COMING UP wrt uppers + surface temps, - PUNT - -8c covering large part - Northerly - then Easterly with temps staying below freezing all day _ particularly in the SE.
  14. 3 likes
    A good read guys-well presented covering pretty much all the background factors.Not easy this year-is it ever,lol Appreciate the work and time you both have put in-good luck with it.
  15. 3 likes
    Mr Stodge’s Wintry Procrastinations & Projections 2016-17 With winter close at hand (and foot), time to wheel out my meaningless drivel of a forecast for the coming season. Last year’s belter of a forecast – anticyclonic and often cold – was so far off the mark the arrow didn’t just miss the target but hit someone three miles away. I can’t do any worse in 2016-17, well, obviously, I can, but here goes with another attempt at playing “guess the atmosphere”: December: A Month of Three Halves The atmospheric and synoptic background going into winter 2016-17 is as far removed from that for this time last year as I am from being a professional weather forecaster but while it’s nice to see the PV visiting Siberia, none of this guarantees cold weather for our little corner of the world. Most of the “expert” LRFs I’ve seen suggest a blocked period in December and that’s understandable with the Atlantic as weak as a cup of tea made with a teabag on its twentieth cup but where the anticyclone sets up will be the key. Could it be to the south or west bringing us moist mild mush or will it to be the north or east bringing frigid freezing (I can’t think of anything else)? The answer is neither – the HP will be right over the UK – centred between Belper and Matlock by December 15th. That may be a shade precise but the message is a pre-Christmas visit from our friends fog and frost especially for central areas. To the far north and far south too much breeze from the south west and north east respectively and that means drizzle for both (or snizzle for the south if you’re lucky). So after an indifferent 10 days or so to begin December, HP builds rapidly to provide a stable if frustrating (for fans of snow though not cold) mid-month but around Boxing Day I think we’ll see the HP retreating east or north east allowing the Atlantic to return so no White Christmas but a White Twixtmas especially for those on higher ground but by New Year the Atlanticosaurus has basically defeated the Anticyclonodron in the battle of weather dinosaurs. Overall then, a mildish start, a colder middle (especially in central areas) with temperatures returning to average by year’s end. January: Don’t be Cold, Don’t be Angry with Me Who remembers that song? Anyway, the weather’s going to take no notice of that and this is going to be the coldest of the three winter months. I still see the Seasons are playing the classic 3-3-3-3 formation and what good has it done them? They ought to switch to a 2-4-4-2 formation – move December up to provide a more mobile autumnal back four and play June across the spring midfield leaving July and August up front. Back to January and while the Atlantic might have clawed its way across the country, this will be transitory as the cold remains strong to the east and north and in early January we’ll see that return but not as an anticyclone but rather with the jet heading south and cold zonality becoming the order of the day. Yes, depressions forming to the south of Iceland (or Tesco’s) swinging SE in a cold NW’ly flow more disturbed than an Eastenders character with secondary features zipping along the Channel so plenty of rain and wind for the south and south west in particular but snow further north especially over northern England, the North Midlands and North Wales. The rain then followed by showers of hail, thunder, sleet, locusts and cucumbers over the south. It won’t be pleasant and the weather will be in the news a lot but later in the month the jet will start to move back north so the south drying up and warming up and the north seeing more rain than snow with rising temperatures. By month’s end the south could be quite mild and pleasant under benign SW’ly zephyrs bringing Sidney out of his woodshed and letting Knocker’s daffs ease into full bloom. Overall, quite a cold and disturbed month especially early on but a trend to more settled and warmer conditions taking temperatures in the south above average by month’s end. February: A Scorpion Month If you’re still with me (and please try to find something more rewarding to do with your lives), what then of February? Overall, fairly meh with a bit of yawn thrown in for good measure to start with. High Pressure rules the roost but as in any good story, if the plot gets dull, introduce a new character. Welcome then the Eurasian (or Siberian) High, Basically, the core of High Pressure starts to the south or southwest but at the same time the Siberian HP begins to migrate west and builds pressure into Scandinavia and around mid-month becomes the dominant feature turning the winds over southern Britain more ESE and introducing much colder conditions with a risk of snow from a frigid continent. Pressure falls away over France and Camborne sees an increasingly chill E’ly flow. Further north, fairly benign conditions with a lot of dry weather though the far north of Scotland will remain under a more Atlantic influence with occasional bouts of rain and drizzle. As winter ends, however, the Finland HP relaxes its grip and Atlantic systems return but that’s beyond my limited vision. February is therefore mild to start followed by a much colder interlude turning milder again. March: Early Thoughts As it seems probable the planet will be approaching the Event Horizon of a black hole, I would guess early spring will be fairly average but we need a lot more runs before we can firm up and some of the GEFS members are a shade less apocalyptic, Winter 2016-17 has therefore a little something for everyone. More snow than the last three winters but no real severe spell of snowy weather for the south though Scotland and altitude further south will do well.
  16. 3 likes
    One snow shovel for sale, brand new and never used. Reason for sale:- winter is over
  17. 3 likes
    Agree, people shouldn't ignore these signals and be ready for something better showing up v soon
  18. 3 likes
    Transition phase, I expect a few days of this then FI will look a whole lot better !!
  19. 3 likes
    Certain people on this forum infuriate me, it's one run and it's not even backtracked just because it doesn't show the ridiculous snowmaggedon from the 06z doesn't mean it's 'game over' Please get some perspective.
  20. 2 likes
    Can anyone remember such a week of yo-yo output before this one? Last winter it was obvious relentless mush. Even Dec 2010 was rock solid in its output leading up to it. It's been extraordinary and I doubt its not over yet. Surprised no one has mention Shannon during the week!
  21. 2 likes
    You are crazy! Then again, so am I probably because I have the niggling feeling that's likely/possible too. Put it this way, nothing will surprise me given the model shenanigans recently.
  22. 2 likes
    This is the reason my dad got one. He uses it all year round
  23. 2 likes
  24. 2 likes
    John Hammond sums things up nicely in his weather for the week ahead. He says the weather models are in disarray and he can't call whether cold or mild will win out. So expect a lot more flip flops to come in here.
  25. 2 likes
    There you go. Finish off today with those words. Goodnight everyone sleep well as we have another day ahead of us tomorrow.
  26. 2 likes
    Completely pointless posting this other than for the comedy value... GFS 18z t384
  27. 2 likes
    Looking at the last 24hrs whats changed ? More runs needed Patience running thin today I think we are still waiting for GFS 'epic fail'. UKMO was bloody disappointing today, 12Z was a joke ECM is on the follow me your b***** I'm top dog and GFS is moving that way. More shortwave spoilers have been found, t*ss**ers* Models are struggling at T120 so lets post some T240 charts Tamara, keeps cautious optimism METO further outlook/forecasts now suck because they look poor UKMO sucks and has got a real good kicking today from members for not showing what we want. Of course its the worse model ever. The GFS has found another shortwave to spoil the outlook. .......Why GFS why ! , give us a break stop finding shortwaves in the wrong place ECM having none of it. It has been pretty consistent compared to the fickle gfs. Pub run we want the ECM to 'flip over' --------- So ECM won the day for consistency, UKMO has been put in the hospital and short waves have been really pesky today. For cold lovers its 3/10 day hence why only 20 pages posted On a positive its still Autumn lots to play for
  28. 2 likes
    Some of these post make no sense..... Just one liners that add absolutely nothing to the thread......
  29. 1 like
    The Gfs 18z / Ecm 12z look similar at T+240 with regard to the long draw swly airflow.
  30. 1 like
    Broadly, the extended range is similar to the day 10 pattern (at least over the Atlantic sector). No sign of any cheer for the coldies at the moment.
  31. 1 like
    Winter has been put back to 2020 according to the latest model run
  32. 1 like
    How has it lost the plot? It could be right
  33. 1 like
    Hi both, thanks for your posts, l don't understand half but it's helping me advance, alibi slowly!
  34. 1 like
    We've gone from a balmy southerly to a rather cold northerly on GFS 12z a total 180 flip.
  35. 1 like
    Certainly is, 180 chart look north again
  36. 1 like
    that is 100% Sestriere ...2035 meters altitude... fantastic ski resort here 2 snow-gauge of the location get some pictures too.. and a video of the last night snow in the village
  37. 1 like
    I think if we have a 4th winter in a row where we don't get snow for more than 1/2 day, i'll give up on weather watching all together. Is it too much to ask for snow to last on the ground for 2 days now???!!
  38. 1 like
    Ha ha. You mean wailing. This is whaling. The atrocious spelling and grammar are part of the entertainment on the model thread.
  39. 1 like
    Really? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/13/marine-le-pen-not-a-hairs-breadth-separates-front-national-and-ukip
  40. 1 like
    Seems positive, and like the models are barking up the wrong tree, for the time being
  41. 1 like
    Not a surprise. We know statistically you are more likely to be voting Liberal the more educated, well travelled and empathetic you are.
  42. 1 like
    I hope that doesn't verify. That would be stupidly cold for my country, considering the time of year. Still, pinch of salt anything after day 6 still.
  43. 1 like
    Hopefully something like this Frosty, this was 4 day cold spell, frost never lifted, 4 frosty nights on the trot and by Tuesday 17th it was unbelievably thick, can be just as good as snow, but Atlantic rolled in later on Tues 17th, but very wintry 4 days
  44. 1 like
    Yes, the met office do not on National TV talk about the prospects for a month away for the very sa..... whooooppps!!!!!
  45. 1 like
    Here the live radar of the precipitations. In this video, the Tanaro river jump over the bridge and side walls flooding the nearest area...
  46. 1 like
    Apparently the pro Brexit march in Parliament Square wasn't a great success. About 15000 were invited, 2000 only confirmed and about a 100 turned up. The police scaled down their security precautions when it became apparent that the only concern might be a few pensioners slipping on the wet pavement or getting hit in the face by one of the numerous placards!
  47. 1 like
    Briefly ignoring all aspects of any meteorology, got to say that 06Z GFS run is worth saving and salivating over for the rest of the day, especially after the relentless dross of 12 months ago!... However, and back to reality. The differences between the GFS and the ECM are significant and, as Glacier Point, highlights especially for the UK and NW Europe in general in roughly a weeks time they are about as opposite as can be. Examination of the EC Clusters at T+192hr (Fri 2nd Dec) show that just 10 members, out of the usual 51 members, show something similar to that of the GFS evolution, ie; a marked region of blocking and with more of a marked trough over the UK and NW Europe to allow for a possible cold N or NW'ly flow. Clearly 10 out of 51 is a minority and, for now at least, the ECMWF just isn't buying the GFS evolution, all directly related to the up-stream developments just off the eastern seaboard and/or Newfoundland region in roughly a weeks time. It is safe to say that no official forecasts will be going with what the GFS is showing just yet, primarily because of the distinct lack of connection between the GFS and the ECMWF and not only that we are still talking about a possible 'event' that is 6 or 7 days away, a long time no matter whether consistency is good or not. A case of just sitting and waiting to see if the consistency develops (and for us cold fans hoping on this occasions the GFS is picking up the correct evolution) especially if is there is then cross-model agreement with the EC and GFS as, to an extent, one of these models is likely to be more right than wrong. There is always a possibility both could be wrong and a different evolution occurs, but I can't see that now. Matt. NB: Winter forecast from myself and Tony (Lorenzo) likely to be issued before the end of the week, stay tuned!...
  48. 1 like
    Reason UKMO won't talk about shortwave features at T+168 is because that sort of nuance is utterly unreliable at that range. We have enough trouble accurately forecasting shortwave troughs at T+12, let alone at a range where we're much more focused on ensemble forecasting, not small-scale vagaries of deterministic output run-to-run.
  49. 1 like
    I wouldn't call it 'lets bash the folk on the model thread, thread' I have time and time again posted how much I admire their optimism and dedication across a swing of emotions and how every day turns into a 'slit wrists' or 'excitement' By all means they should carry on, I am just merely pointing out how exhausting it must be chasing something that isn't real and getting so worked up about something that has never happened. I enjoy reading the 'soap opera' script though, nice break away from the systems at work
  50. 1 like
    Don't worry, soon we'll have two brand spanking new aircraft carriers, the biggest we've ever had none the less. Pity we won't have any aircraft capable of flying off them for years though, nor the generally accepted number of support destroyers, frigates etc required to form even one 'carrier group'. Defense procurement has been a joke for years, way before the current government, so both the Tories and Labour have to shoulder the blame.
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