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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/09/16 in all areas

  1. 14 points
    This weeks syntopic guidance blog from Matt is online now: Synoptic Guidance - The Week Ahead - 19th September
  2. 14 points
    Whilst it's a bit quiet in the thread i thought for Winter lovers it is of some interest to view the latest GFS Op.run NH view to see the first signs of the building Arctic cold modeled over N.Siberia as we progress through to month end. 2 images at the 850hPa level- first at T24hrs and then at T240hrs showing the gradual spread south of sub-zero temperatures over there. this area, apart from Greenland, is usually the area to see the first lying snow of the approaching Winter. A look at the temperatures expected at the surface over the next 2 weeks so in a few days the region will go below zero-day and night as the cold settles in. Early days and just for fun really but we can see already the effects of the sun going below the horizon in the high Arctic as the upper air cools rapidly and the Polar Vortex starts to expand as we go pass the equinox.
  3. 5 points
    There may have been a few more spotless days but I wouldn't agree about the much weaker part where geomagnetic activity is concerned. In that respect, activity was stronger last year than in the year of maximum. It takes a while to wind down. 2014 2016 to date. Compare the Bartels music diagram for 2009 - that's a signature we want to get to for further testing the theory of cold winters at solar minimum. Sources. http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/
  4. 4 points
    *satire alert* http://newsthump.com/2016/09/19/man-united-struggling-to-replace-howard-webb-insists-jose-mourinho/
  5. 4 points
    The GEM ends with a significant dartboard depression blasting through the UK: This is the result of a tropical storm forming on Friday hundreds of miles off the eastern seaboard, before it hitches a lift on the jet and arrives in the British Isles. The UKMO also has this feature and looks like it might carry on to a similar outcome: The ECM makes less of it: ...and the GFS doesn't have it at all: GEFS don't seem interested either, but something to keep an eye on maybe.
  6. 4 points
    Hey folks. Moving to Newcastle today, so time to update my location and start posting here. Looking forward to a winter with much greater snow potential than I've been used to in southern Ireland!
  7. 4 points
    The sun, for me, will always be viewed as THE driver of global temperatures (from a holistic viewpoint). Tell me, what would happen if the sun was to suddenly disappear?? No amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would come to our rescue in that instance; we'd freeze solid within seconds. It's why I find it embarrassing that some people seem to hold its effects in such little regard. As of 2009 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 387 ppm, to put this into context, during the paleozoic era, it's estimated the concentration was about 4400 ppm. Yet there is evidence to suggest that there was still glaciation at this time. IMO it's much more plausible that the radiation output of the sun is not constant (as is assumed) and what we're seeing is a response to fluctuations in its output. The sun is in its late mature stage and will only increase its output over the next millions of years. Even minute fluctuations will result in temperature swings on earth. Given we have fairly rudimentary knowledge of the intricate workings of the sun, I cannot see how it is wise to discount it as a major driver whatsoever- and I'm not just talking about sun spots here. Regardless of any 'seemingly obvious correlations' it could be completely coincidental that we've seen warming since the onset of industrialisation. That's a fact that cannot be disproved. As someone said above, it's going to be a very interesting few years ahead. So much to keep tabs on; solar cycles, Arctic ice extent, Global temperatures, NW European climate etc etc.
  8. 3 points
    October C.E.T. averages and extremes 20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985 20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011 13.3 ... warmest month 2001 13.1 ... second warmest month 2005 13.0 ... third warmest months, 1969 and 2006 12.7 ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831 12.5 ... 2013 and 2014 CET 12.3 ... tied 13th and warnest of 18th century 1731 11.3 ... mean 2001-2015 11.0 ... 2015 CET 10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2015, also 2012 CET 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692 6.4 .... second coldest 1817 5.3 .... coldest 1740 0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895 ___________________________________________________________________________ Enter your October forecast in this thread before end of Friday 30th September without penalty, or during the first three days of October with increasing late penalties applied. Good luck.
  9. 3 points
    More certain about what exactly?
  10. 3 points
    Morning output is still continuing along the same theme today - GFS is keen for an Azores high reload and a bit more warmth by day 9/10. Fairly benign really, better in the SE.
  11. 3 points
    http://www.disswebsites.com/article/take-a-look-back-at-diss-in-1947--ice-skating-is-how-they-rolled-back-then.html My hometown of Diss, before my time. I was lucky enough to step into the Mere when it was slightly frozen one winter, but am very envious of people who got to skate on it years ago :-)
  12. 3 points
    The CFS model has been showing December blocking for a while now and is backed up by the Glosea. I have found if the seasonal models converge on a +NAO then it's nearly always nailed on. It is encouraging we have some consensus towards a HLB in the seasonal modelling thus far.
  13. 2 points
    The Geomagnetic Blitz of September 1941 https://eos.org/features/the-geomagnetic-blitz-of-september-1941 Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered. The illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. Auroras danced across the night sky as voltage surged in power grid lines. A radio blackout interrupted fan enjoyment of a baseball game, while another radio program was interrupted by private phone conversations. Citizens, already on edge, wondered if neon lights were some sort of antiaircraft signal. And far away in the North Atlantic, the illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. These effects raised awareness within the scientific community and among the public of the societal significance of the effects that the Sun and outer space can have on the Earth—what we now call space weather.
  14. 2 points
    It's been a fine day in Angus/Aberdeenshire. Long sunny intervals, slight breeze and high of around 18C.
  15. 2 points
    Agree with some on here, it's still t-shirt and shorts weather for me here in Birmingham. If you're out and about 16C isn't cold at all.
  16. 2 points
    and this year it's been extended from just WIND, to wind, rain/flooding and snow!
  17. 2 points
    A distant pic of Pink-footed geese at Montrose this morning - the numbers are beginning to build.
  18. 2 points
  19. 2 points
    Ahhh I love this thread soooo much! Makes the run to winter so much more exciting!
  20. 2 points
    ECM also follows the GFS suit in bringing some very warm air across the UK again by the end of the run (850s up around 15c again!) though less settled as the ridge doesn't build in as much. I guess much will depend on how the TD interacts once more, but either way I don't think it will be desperately unsettled. GEM looks well wide of the mark to me, as amazing as that low looks!
  21. 2 points
  22. 2 points
    Found this interesting from the CFS for December. The first chart was December 2015 forecasted September 2015 and is pretty accurate with high pressure to the south pumping up warm air. Now the second chart is for December 2016 and notice all the Northern blocking in red. A complete reverse forecast for this year
  23. 2 points
    There are a couple of QBO charts that should without much examination explain the predicament...
  24. 2 points
    In a similar vein, take CO2 out of the atmosphere and the Earth becomes a giant ball of ice too. This is part of the faint young sun paradox. High CO2 levels, much less output from the sun = a cooler climate. Similarly, in hundreds of millions of year, much less CO2 will be needed to keep the Earth ice free. Greenhouse gasses have done a remarkable job of keeping the Earth in a stable enough temperature range to keep life going for hundreds of millions of years, despite the long term increase in solar output and other climate cataclysms. I don't think anyone discounts the effect of the sun, no more than the tilt of the Earth or the role of ocean currents. However, the influences are relative, related and measurable. We know the importance of the Milankovitch cycles in conjunction with GhGs in driving much of the recent glacial cycles and it would be unwise to discount the strong correlation between recent grand minima and changes in the north Atlantic weather patterns. However, warming since the industrial revolution is largely explained by CO2 (especially after mid 20th century, as explained not so long ago, using a large variety of empirical lines of evidence (as well as correlations and climate models). As far as can be scientifically certain, it is definitely not simply a correlation.
  25. 2 points
    I don't think it's fake. Their as been a lot of speculation regarding the sun and the temps we experience this solar max as been very low so the minimum could be extremely low. Whether that will be enough to create very low temps remains to be seen. Some papers also say that the current rate in which the earth is warming may offset any potential cool down. Interesting period coming up. Add to that the low ice in the artic which may cool the waters due to ice melting which in turn may slow the Atlantic conveyor belt there is a lot to keep our eyes on over the next few years
  26. 1 point
    Must say tonight's Ecm is looking very amplified and increasingly benign, even possibly for parts of Scotland and N Ireland, as we go through next week owing to that huge swathe of high pressure down over Southern Europe which seemingly refuses to do a hike. Can only hope at this early stage that this feature will not become a major player during the upcoming season.
  27. 1 point
    For whatever reason, the latest from CFSv2 is keen on a very settled first half of October: You may dream of chilly nights, foggy mornings and mellow sunshine, but you may not take this model too seriously
  28. 1 point
    Keep it going Matt, nicely presented for experienced and less so is how I see your postings-thanks It could be even more read come the 'silly season'-which we all know is getting closer.
  29. 1 point
    30 years averages for 1st-21st March/ December: 1781-1810: 4.2/ 3.4 1791-1820: 4.6/ 3.5 1801-1830: 5.1/ 4.0 1811-1840: 5.2/ 4.6 1821-1850: 5.3/ 4.9 1831-1860: 5.0/ 4.6 1841-1870: 4.8/ 4.8 1851-1880: 5.0/ 4.3 1861-1890: 4.8/ 4.0 1871-1900: 4.9/ 3.9 1881-1910: 4.7/ 4.4 1891-1920: 5.0/ 4.9 1901-1930: 5.3/ 4.7 1911-1940: 5.3/ 4.6 1921-1950: 5.3/ 4.6 1931-1960: 5.3/ 4.8 1941-1970: 5.2/ 4.7 1951-1980: 5.2/ 4.9 1961-1990: 5.3/ 4.8 1971-2000: 6.0/ 5.2 1981-2010: 6.2/ 4.8 The averages have really diverged in recent years owing to December's cooling trend and March's warming trend. Many of the 30 year averages were quite similar, with the 1841-1870 averages both at 4.8C. No March averages were colder than their corresponding December averages.
  30. 1 point
    I think thats in France. Im of to austria this christmas to see the wifes family a town called Leibnitz south east of austria always see snow everytime ive been there cant wait
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    Much cooler today, finally feels like the back end of September.
  33. 1 point
    Don't get too hopeful of snow here we've hardly had any for the past 2 winters Welcome to the region and the toon
  34. 1 point
    They are bright-ish and flicker, but the bulbs in the 'wax' so it just gives out a cosy glow. The downside is the batteries as they don't last a long time, other than that the ones we have are different sizes and do the job. Cloudy today and cool. No surprise there.
  35. 1 point
    As per the above GFS delivers a modestly warm end to September. GEM has a bit more excitement..
  36. 1 point
    If you do decide to take Vitamin D3 it's a good idea to take a seperate Vitamin K2 supplement along side them - Apparently it helps the Vitamin D3 go into the bones better and stops the body from producing too much calcium which in itself can be problem if it gets into the soft tissue like the heart, arteries......not good. Lots of interesting reading about the D3/K2 combination online. Once you take the K2 you can up the dose of D3 to a high level (5,000 - 10,000 IU every day) ....the sort of level that you make naturally in the Summer months and you won't have to worry about "calcification"
  37. 1 point
    Not according to the stats. 62/63 is regarded to the most severe of the 20th Century with '47 a very close second. I wasn't around in '47 but the very cold spell in 62/63 was very long with a penetrating frost severe enough to freeze water mains buried 6ft deep. Around Merseyside we had snow flurries during December with heavy snow over the Christmas holiday that persisted all the way though Jan and Feb. It was at the end of Feb that we had our first 50F accompanied with a thaw (we used old money back then). Oops, we've gone a bit off-thread. Sorry.
  38. 1 point
    Today in the Sunday express online they managed to print a story about " the worst winter in 60 years " without noticing it was a rehash of a 2013 story, the complete give away was that it contained a long range forecast from 2013, and the http link contained a reference to 2013, wow a forecast accurate 3 yrs in advance , what kind of super computer does the express have. Mind you in 2015 it was going to be the worse winter in 50 years on 10th Jan this year they predicted the coldest winter for 58 years ( very specific ) " an Arctic Snowbomb" But on 18th Feb they had backed down and predicted "ARCTIC gales, snow and freezing rain is sweeping Britain today with the entire country facing the worst winter blast for at least a year." Not the worst winter blast for at least a year , what since the last winter , how odd. They got that one right at least. Anyway I will predict now, that this winter will be the harshest winter since last winter, and next summer will be the hottest since last summer. Maybe they will give me a job. Obviously making up stories about the weather is useful when covering up more painful truths. BTW I don't read the express , I was looking for news on my home town on a woman who had a fight in McD's
  39. 1 point
    No real change so far for the coming week from the 12z runs. The UK again showing in a south westerly flow between low pressure towards the north west and the Azores high ridging across towards southern areas. A few charts to illustrate Day 3 from the UKMO and day 5 from the GFS the frontal systems quite active to the nw and weakening somewhat as they come se. A couple of rainfall and pressure images -just snapshots-Tues and Fri as GFS sees things currently Temperatures look close to normal overall,as ever warmest in the se where high teens.possibly 20c could well be reached most days. A pretty normal late September pattern by the looks with quite benign weather for many away from the far north west.
  40. 1 point
    Euro and GEM for the next 10 days would probably make it likely that we'd finish the month under 16C. GFS6z probably guarantees that top 5 finish. *This assumes a near average final few days.
  41. 1 point
    September- December to me is the best time of the year Birthdays, wedding anniversary, Halloween, fireworks and the lead up to Christmas at school with the plays and carols. I like the Cosy months when I can snuggle in doors and shut out the nasty weather. cloudy here today, feels mild but there are breaks in the cloud. Still annoyed I missed out last week with the storms, hoping I will get some snow later in Winter. Doubt there will be any second chances now, September changes from 'thunder watch' to 'snow watch' after all.
  42. 1 point
    I don't particularly like Autumn as it can be very dominated by wet and windy weather. That said this weekend has got pretty close to dire. Down in south Essex and to be frank there has been 0 minutes of sunshine all weekend. Same goes for my trip to SW London yesterday, just endless grey skies.
  43. 1 point
    Still shorts and tee shirt weather by me,heating not even thought of!
  44. 1 point
    IF we can believe the GFS towards the end of its run Batten down the hatches The Atlantic kicks in and throws Dart boards in our direction . ECM keeps us fairly dry and with some fairly good temperatures any one taking a late break could do well . Hoping the Azores high takes a break this winter but thats another story , take care all
  45. 1 point
    It was all over the news on the 16th September, the storms that occurred from the evening of the 15th right through to the end of the 16th. There was lots of flooding, lightning and I myself witnessed how intense the rainfall was. I was also impressed with how intense some of the lightning was, with very loud thunder. One place that was mentioned was Newbury in Berkshire where flooding rains hit. http://www.itv.com/news/2016-09-16/thunder-storms-and-flash-flooding-cause-traffic-chaos/ I intercepted the Newbury storm as it passed over Newbury between about 6pm and 7pm on the evening of the 15th. This storm had developed over London and very slowly ambled its way westwards. As it pushed further west it lost a lot of its energy, but when it hit Newbury it was producing some torrential rainfall and vivid lightning. Here is a video I took as I core punched the storm. The total video of this storm alone is around half an hour, with a lot of it footage of me approaching the storm and then some of me driving out the other side of the core. I have only edited and saved this part so far as I would say this is the best bit. Unfortunately I was unable to get out and film the storm so missed out on getting the loud thunder on camera. Although you can actually just about hear it from inside the car on the video, and I could clearly hear it whilst I was driving. The storms I saw later on made up for this though as I was treated to many loud crashes of thunder. https://www.newsflare.com/video/86629/weather-nature/torrential-storm-over-newbury
  46. 1 point
  47. 1 point
    hope a few storm starved got their fix last night, bit of a no show here , but that was forecast, we got our turn on tues evening , and what a show it was , more so to the east of here in the manchester area, went on chase towards it and was amazed at some of the lightning which was vivid at dusk, to be honest its not been a bad year in this part for thunder , easily 9 or 10 thunder days , some have just been a couple of rumbles , and a one or two have been quite feisty , and the good news is the irish sea to the west of here is quite warm, any unstable cold uppers going into autumn and winter could give some good coastal convection
  48. 1 point
  49. 1 point
    That's why I carry a radio with me at all times when i'm on storm watch. Old school, but I can also get enough information about strikes from it that it is a useful tool.
  50. 1 point
    Panic attacks are caused by something being triggered, you just don't always know what. That's why therapy is really useful because it helps you get to the why and then deal with the attacks. Glad to hear you are doing better, OP. It's super common and loads of people get it. The things to rememeber are: - It's a natural reaction to a threat. Your body is made to do this. You're not dying, you will come out of it. - It is only temporary, it doesn't last. - Seek out support to combat it.
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