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564 dam is the holy grail in a british summer just as much as 510 dam is in winter. The Ecm 12z shows a lovely plume of heat extending from the south towards the end of next week with temps potentially close to 30c 86f across southern England and widely mid to high 20's c for most of England and Wales for a time. Hopefully this will verify and even upgrade in duration and then repeat frequently throughout the summer. I think it has a good chance next week since the latest met office update mentioned increasingly very warm and humid conditions in the 6-15 day range..fingers crossed!

Each and every run, I wonder if the trough might stall out west of the UK. Today we've seen one out of three GFS runs achieve this, while ECM remains resolute in bringing it on over, albeit not quite as fast as once looked to be the case. Of the 12z det. runs, GEM is the one showing a stall, though like the GFS 06z we then see a UK/Scandi ridge rather than European one. This belies the fact that the stalling low has so far only been achieved via a split of the jet (as far as the det. runs go, anyway), which means you still have support for a shallow low to slide into Europe, causing the plume of heat to quickly destabilise. It's an impressive plume for the western Med. (850's into the mid-20's, more like something out of July or August) so there would be some mighty bangs down there I'm sure. We are once again looking at a GEFS mean which is keen on tanking the GLAAM big-time. The past few times, the GLAAM has instead stayed in the positive zone. On the most recent occasion this meant that the GWO tracked through phases 8-0-5 as opposed to a GEFS projection at one week's range that went all the way down into phase 2. That's a huge difference in the distribution of momentum, and a similar adjustment this time around would in theory see the idea of a UK trough in the 10-16 day range banished in favour of high pressure quickly recovering the situation after the breakdown of the plume. For I moment as it was rolling out (around the +252 hour mark) I did wonder if the 12z would manage that, but alas, no. So the big question is, will the atmosphere take up the La-Nina base state on this occasion, or is GEFS once again being far too keen to make the transition? Tamara has in the recent past outlined the critical nature of the transition time with respect to summer weather prospects. I for one hope to see the GLAAM holding up positive for another month or so, as much as that comes up against ever-increasing odds!

An interesting turn-up in the GEFS 06Z. The mean is fairly reflective: By D9, the trough is now showing as another staller, allowing warm/hot weather to become established from the south. 15 out of 21 members are variants on this theme. The trough does make some headway on the mean by D11, but again, 15 members still do not have a trough over the UK by this time and the flatter pattern on the mean chart simply reflects the multitude of options, including troughing splitting and going south. I'm really scratching my head over my June CET punt now, hopefully the 12Zs will be more conclusive!

A notable change in the alignment of the Atlantic jet stream (hence trough) on the 06z (right) compared to the 00z (left). It fires more NE than E, helping to throw up more of a ridge to the east of it i.e. through the UK. This in turn discourages continuation of the blocking across Greenland - a win for both the UK and the Arctic sea ice. Intriguingly the changed alignment of the high begins as early as day 5, which means that during the couple of days leading up to the above chart (Sun and Mon), conditions are already a degree or two warmer across the UK than they were on the 00z. It's been quite a turnaround from yesterday's 12z, which was pretty grim, never really establishing the warmer regime prior to the Atlantic trough barging in. Looking further on in the 06z GFS run, and as usual for recent years, the ridge soon sets up more toward Scandinavia and we're left with a 'gently warm' sequence of days. It's quite a lot like the patterns of Jun-Jul 2014, only not quite so unstable on this particular run. Longer-range signals have recently started moving toward keeping lower heights W of the UK rather than introducing a standard zonal type setup. It will be interesting to see if this new direction is maintained.

Excellent charts i hope this turns into a full blown heatwave and hitting 30C before the summer solstice is something that rarely happens these days. Hope its a sign of things to come

The breakdown is still right at the end of the run too- it keeps being pushed back which could mean we can squeeze out even more warmth over the next 10 days or so. It looks a fairly promising outlook with the trough in the right place to allow plenty of warmth for all.

Yes the bbc are increasing temperatures for next week also. It would be very nice to see temperatures hit 30c this early on!

The high holds on well into next week on this evenings ECM high 20's possible for the south later next week for a time

There's some nice clouds to my East..

We must also consider the names of places when considering thunderstorm risk: For example Godalming phonetically includes the sounds "ogh" and "ah". These two sounds cause the speaker to breathe out significantly when saying the word 'Godalming'. This breathing causes large amounts of hot, dry air to be regularly emitted into the local environment. Also as the name itself contains at least several letters (in fact I've counted and it contains 9!) which takes significant time to write - using a pen - which can cause perspiration. This perspiration causes large amounts of warm moisture into the local environment - which thinking about it should actually cause thunderstorms - but that goes against my hypothesis so this evidence will have to be shelved. I think you'll find my analysis conclusive.

Think too much focus is given on how unfavourable the relatively cool waters surrounding the UK can be and not the actual setup we're situated under. Bear in mind the lightning activity that occurred this morning was from instability rooted above the boundary layer, so the SSTs were irrelevant. But still matter to some... If there is good instability over/surrounding the UK, then storms will occur over land and water (assuming forcing is there). Simple. Initial surface-based storms travelling over water can take a hit at this time of the year, given the lag in rise of SSTs in relation to landmass, but if the environment is like it was over the continent yesterday, then no sea water is going to have a negative effect on storms developing. The problem is down to the setup, and the right conditions a lot of the time just missing our shores. And that's due to not having that favourable upper 500mb pattern - i.e. strong amplified ridge just to our east/trough approaching from west. The 500mb profile dictating the synoptic setup at the surface. Get the right setup and we can get severe storms. The problem is in getting the setup. But the surrounding waters are quite irrelevant most of the time.

Yup - unfortunately having sea all around us and being a not particularly large landmass in the first place we're limited to decent convective events only when the situation is just right - ie. Winds not blowing everything off the edge into the sea and being at the right angle to bring us the right sort of air at the right temperature. I'm realising all of this now - I think only in the summer months do us mid-land areas get a fair whack. It really doesn't matter how much potential Europe provides, the sea being all around us just eats up spring and early summer storms so they can only limp so far inland before giving up and just becoming rain or grey mess. At least things are gonna start hotting up from now onwards...

Can't get that Atlantic back quick enough. Incessant northerly gales, leaden skies and ,last night, torrential rain are not my idea of May/June!

Please let it be the Azores ridging, we deserve a good summer!

Indeed Frosty, if the ECM holds back the Atlantic for one more day (until beyond D10) it may even be the first shot of the year at the magical 90F mark - a feat achieved on a couple of GEFS members tonight. Most output, however, seems keen to bring the Atlantic in quickly between D9 and D11. Too far out to call yet but, as I said last night, what happens in the models over the next couple of days may give us some clues for the coming summer - which has the upper hand, the Atlantic jet or Azores ridging?

The main message to take from tonight's ECM is a breakdown from the Atlantic is delayed till D10

Really hope this comes to fruition.

With the minimum today at 10.2C, the CET will finish on 12.6C (before corrections) provided the max today is between 12.2C and 18.4C, which seems pretty likely. So with corrections, something from 12.2C to 12.6C then, which leaves us slightly above the 81-10 average of 11.7C.

I was woken around 4.20 by distant thunder and rain. Tried to settle down again and there was a close and very loud clap of thunder that jolted me firmly awake. This continued, sporadically, with bright glows from distant lightning until past 5.00, when the thunder cleared. My parents reported strong winds earlier in the night, and heavy driving rain after I got back off to sleep, around 6.00. From that Blitzortung screengrab, it would appear that your area had it worse than us, Malcolm. Very strange set-up - overnight storms, from the east, after a grey chilly, breezy day yesterday.

Rain has just started in Lowestoft. Increasing steadily in intensity. 2 quite large flashes of lightning within the last minute. This could be good!

?

Not if the ECM is to be believed, some lovely heat moving up the country on the latest run. Would be nice to see high pressure this summer that's stronger than Julian Clarey's handshake.

Yes, why not? We used to! I remember numerous all night storms in decades past, sometimes continuing to lunchtime the next day. All changed now in this 'new' climate of ours that really needs to do one!

seems your caps lock got stuck on the second half of the sentence and I wasn't criticizing but if you like I can say that the same point could have been made with only one image

I think people are getting dangerously optimistic because of storm withdrawal

A few days left with this poll before the new one is opened. The average after 18 votes is on 3.11 million km2, with a big cluster of 10 votes at just under 3 million km2.

The dry weather is hanging on here, 18.3°C under cloud at the moment. Talking of cloud, there's some lovely patterns appearing in the direction of the weather front..

yes, one shows us, the other shows Europe, DON'T CRITICISE MY SNIPPING SKILLS!

And my point is further proven when we consider the small Cumbrian hamlet of 'Humdingerton' where one-time resident Mrs Kirkwood of 1000 Defogonnahappen Lane kept records which show not one thunderstorm over the period of 3 decades (prior to which all records were destroyed by a suspected lightning strike)

Well the sun shone for most of the Holiday weekend here in Skipton with the rain reserved for the Southeast from early today . Looks like a full spin reversal in fortunes to start this summer season compared with last year with the North West doing well near the high pressure. The East fairly cold with persistent winds from the North Sea (sst around 8c brr ) A feature so far is the dominance of the European trough which continues with its vaporous weather to the SE. However, many folk in the NW would like it to stay this way, especially after the horrible dullness and low temps of last summer . Still fascinated to see how the models develop over the coming 10 days. Could be locked in this pattern for a while yet with more unsettled weather to develop this weekend to the south with the added ingredients of heat plumes in development for Southern Iberia and noticeable cold pool into Northern Scandinavia thrown into the equation. Great for forecast watching or trying to predict. As reported earlier ,never trust NEly flows in early summer ,they also provide a surprise to bite back at the forecasters! C

Morning all A bit of a dog's breakfast among the models this morning in my view with not much for anyone. Those desperate for heat won't find that much to encourage and the question, as it has been for some time, is have the models finally got the erosion of northern blocking correct ? At various times in the past couple of weeks, we've seen the output offering a return to more traditional Atlantic-based conditions and the promise of everyone's nirvana, the ridging Azores HP and yet the heights remains stubbornly to the north and the Azores HP is stubbornly far away. ECM tries to bring back the Atlantic AND keep the northern heights but the result is a southerly-tracking jet which does no one any favours. GFS and GEM try to bring in lower pressure as well but all that does is sit over the UK for a couple of days to freshen up the ground for Ascot. GFS keeps the Greenland heights for longer than other models and, to be honest, they've modelled this better in my view than the ever-progressive ECM. It does look as though a col of sorts between the pressure systems offers some possibilities for decent conditions but I see little evidence of anything other than transient heat at best in the next couple of weeks but nothing to worry about - plenty of time as summer hasn't officially started (will do so tomorrow).

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 31ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure over the near continent will push troughs West across England and Wales today and tonight with High pressure remaining centred to the NW of the British Isles with a chilly Northerly breeze in places. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the NW at first and the SE later. Occasionally warm. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to remain very slack over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the next week as the pattern of Low pressure over Europe and High pressure to the North continues. Then through the second week a steady increase in strength of the flow and patterning of the Jet stream develops with a West to east flow developing either across Southern Britain or to the South late in the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows two quite separate weeks in terms of weather with the first week maintaining a theme of Low pressure to the SE and High to the North with an East or NE flow across the UK slowly weakening over next weekend as pressure across the UK becomes even North to South. Then after a period of quiet and settled weather unsettled weather spreads up from the SW across most areas with rain or showers at times and temperatures and winds returning to June averages later as Low pressure lies close by over or to the North of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks at odds with the Operational in the second week in as much as it prefers to keep High pressure to the North of the UK then with further thundery showers at times easing up from Europe or the Southwest in generally light winds, humid and warm conditions for many. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today shows a lot of Low pressure weather patterns likely across the UK in two weeks time. The main thrust of this Low pressure shows a centre close to the North with an unstable Westerly or slack flow across the UK. Other scenearios indicate Low pressure in other locations close to the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack Low pressure to the SE and High pressure towards the North of the UK. Further Low pressure lies across the Atlantic to the WSW of the UK by the end of the week with a very slack airflow expected to be maintained across the UK with thundery showers or rain at times across the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain the pattern of High pressure to the NW and Low pressure over continental Europe over the next 5 days with troughs of Low pressure crossing England and Wales from the East becoming weaker and slow moving late in the week near Southern England http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a slow reversion back towards a more normal pressure pattern across the UK next week with Low pressure moving up to the NW of the UK and fronts taking a more traditional route NE across the UK by then. In the meantime the status-quo of present persists with Low pressure over Europe sending the risk of thundery rain at times across Southern areas before the South and East become warm for a time before the troughs to the North and West take over later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slow change towards less in the way of continental Low pressure and swaps it for slack pressure patterns next week with a small pressure gradient across the UK by this time next week. Any rain and thundery showers looks like slowly becoming more restricted towards the far west and NW later as the South and East in-particular becomes warm or possibly very warm. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows another week or so of either NE winds or slack pressure meaning light winds across the UK as the theme of lower pressure to the SE and higher pressure to the NW is maintained. Then as we move through next week a change in the pressure pattern is accomplished as Atlantic Low pressure is finally able to make it's way up to the NW of the UK and spread more traditional spells of wind and rain North and East across the UK by the end of next week with the driest and warmest weather then likely towards the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night is not a million miles away from that of this morning's operational 10 day chart as Low pressure is shown to be edging into the West of the UK from the Atlantic with winds swinging South with rain or showers at times especially towards Western Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems to be a slow pattern towards a change in the pattern across the UK, probably next week as High pressure to the NW finally begins to give some ground to the Atlantic Low pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.4 pts with UKMO at 99.3 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 95.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 84.5 pts and GFS at 82.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 52.2 pts to 46.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 31.4 pts to 30.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The UK is still locked in this theme of High pressure anchored to the North of the UK and lower pressure over continental Europe. North or NE winds continue to bring the risk of cloud and rain, sometimes thundery in from Europe across the South and East of the UK. Through the remainder of this week it appears that the pressure gradient weakens across the UK by the weekend with slack pressure bringing some thundery showers still especially over the South but quite warm and bright weather as well. Then as we move into next week there seems a growing desire to bring a more traditional pattern across the UK as pressure to the NW falls a little and sufficiently enough to allow Atlantic Low pressure to make it's way slowly NE towards NW Britain finally allowing winds to veer more towards a warm South or SW flow with the emphasis of rain or showers slowly reverting towards the North and West with some warm or very warm weather in the SE. I must stress that this is still not a done deal and there are still some big differences between some of the output on the events of the second week, many of which maintain a lot of Northern High latitude blocking which could in theory result in conditions not dissimilar to those of present and I think it will be well into the second half of this week before the models show any sort of cross model agreement on events beyond next weekend. So in the meantime for many the weather is not too bad with just local nuances revolving around pockets of heavy and thundery rain revolving around Southern Britain and this will continue as long as pressure remains Low over Europe. The NW remains the place to be for the warmest and sunniest conditions for some time yet before we may see the SE claiming that honour next week if the above sequence of events takes place. Next Update Wednesday Jun 1st 2016 from 09:00

North West Texas has exploded into life

I see cows...

Sounding angry out there now. Been plenty of activity along the leading edge of this. Managed to capture a quick video. IMG_8722.MOV

Made it to 19.2°C by 6:30pm - Not too shabby, as I thought we may have been under horrid cloud all day. A sunset in both the East and West this evening: I nipped out 15mins ago, and captured a 30s exposure of the ISS on my phone. It's a shame I couldn't have been 90° to it, the light streak would have been longer:

I had red sky in the West and the East this evening..

That cell to the NE of norfolk developed within 20 mins also,new cells firing up further north now,come on Edt: ppn starting to pick up in the north sea now.

I hope that you have some good bino's there EES

Well, it's made it!! Might well be a longer night up than I thought. Will be looking for distant flashes now to the east. North Sea crud is still absent thank god.

It's hitting land and starting to wake up.

see you in the coop sometime

Funny how the N Sea can sustain storms over the N Sea but if they move in any direction other than north.......*sound of deflating balloon*

New strikes off Gt Yarmouth: looks like they're going to make it across!!

https://www.norfolklive.org/our-cameras/southwold-pier-hd/ http://magicseaweed.com/Live-Cromer-Webcam/20/ Not having much luck finding a live one in lowestoft or great yarmouth, at the moment

Windy... But not cold , have noticed that my grapes are growing rather rapidly and each year that happens we have a lovely summer ...

It's was 350+ earlier..... mental

will take pics from Colchester for you all

Update for the week to May 28th The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,338,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,267,000km2. (All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average) The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,514,000km2, an increase from -1,481,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -1,021,000km2, a decrease from -1,035,000km2 last week. We're currently the lowest on record, the same as last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -46.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -42.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -48.7k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -55.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -56.0k/day. The extent drop so far this May is the 2nd largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly loss, a drop of at least 110.0k/day is required (requiring >218k/day with with daily values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 323.6k/day (>865k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a increase of 115.3k/day (>345k/day with single day values).