Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Leaderboard

Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/03/16 in all areas

  1. Running through the ENS on GFS it looks like any warmth is short lived , several options bringing much cooler weather back to the UK mid month onwards Snow falling at Easter cant be ruled out
    14 points
  2. Unanimous 12z EC cluster support for the settled anticyclonic story 13-15 March inclusive...at least. There's two clusters thereafter to end of run (20th), the largest of which continues the settled theme beyond 15th until it relents later (below). Interestingly and perhaps instructively, the increasingly cyclonic look evident by 20th on EC12z cluster 1 now tallies with longer range suites, which also go that direction w/c 21st (d15). Thereafter lies the conundrum: whether the UK sees a more blocked pattern eventually set-up that could go 50-50 (either blocked as an anticyclonic regime here, or as a cyclonic one). Whilst the long range products do agree on GPH falling after d15, as noted on Thurs the latest EC Monthly offers no useful signal thereafter re temperatures etc, with GloSea5 adding little additional steer. However, GloSea5 strat diagnostics do continue to show some degree of downward propagation of post-SSW easterlies late March-early April and as the UKMO note, should those reach the lower troposphere (and that's not *yet* a given), then the risk of more meandering jet and blocking/colder than average weather would increase into the turn of month. At present, the outcome later this month is too tricky to call, but at least the likelihood of a pleasant spell into mid-month continues to find growing support.
    12 points
  3. ECMWF 0z shows WAA push into polar region via UK on the 14th March.If it goes through with purpose, it will close the door behind it and allow Siberian air to move westward towards UK. Whatever the outcome will be. It is going to be very fascinating to watch this process play out.
    9 points
  4. Really stunning Ecm 12z from the end of next week onwards which is almost a carbon copy of the superb week 2 from the Gfs 6z op run. I hope this gains momentum and we see high pressure taking centre stage for a change! This run eventually shows very warm weather for so early in the season and following the winter that never was, I hope early spring brings increasingly warm and settled weather during the mid march period.
    8 points
  5. Options of much chillier weather So many blocked set ups on the cards , be interesting viewing adter mid month
    8 points
  6. GFS shows what I warned about, albeit not as fast as feared. ECM has gone from furthest south with the jet midweek to furthest north, which lowers confidence in proceedings - but a notable increase in temperatures does look the form horse for a time later next week. With luck that'll hold on into the weekend and feature enough high pressure to bring settled weather with it. The balance of play between the Azores/Euro High and those height rises across Svalbard will be important. The split in the stratosphere has become better defined in the GFS output again after a couple of days where it became rather uncertain. The location is one that supports height rises N and NE of the UK. I'm inclined to pay most attention to the model runs that show the strongest height rises during the weekend, as this ties in best with the theoretical impact of this SSW event. Interestingly the whole 30 hPa setup retrogresses during the rest of the run: That supports the idea of a long-fetch easterly as reverse zonality takes over from central/eastern Asia right across to the UK. It may seem crazy but such an outcome could bring the UK at least a brief blast of deeply cold air (assuming a lot of modification with us at the western end of the line). After that, the pattern likely transitions to height rises NW of the UK, which I suspect ushers in a 'nuisance' period of chilly/cold (for time of year) but not all that snowy (if at all!) conditions for the southern half of the UK at least. Oh I'm sorry, is that glass actually half full? For a positive take - at least it tends to be drier when easterlies are about as opposed to westerlies!
    8 points
  7. T+360...seriously? Are you havin a laff P.S...it's nice to see the mutual admiration society in this thread tonight....keep it up gang!
    8 points
  8. Its the 5th March, for this date the average maximum here is 8.4C and the average minimum 2.4C. Today the temps have been a max of 7.8C and min of 2.9C, so not far off at all. I can't ever understand why when we reach the 1st March everyone expects it to be 15C. That's actually the average max in early May and is just as far from the mean as a cold spell with snow and a max of 2C.
    7 points
  9. The Gfs 6z op run turns warm and anticyclonic for week 2 with plenty of sunshine and light winds with temperatures widely into the mid teens celsius and high teens for some! This would be very pleasant indeed and it would make a nice change to see high pressure building in and gaining a firm foothold and intensifying over the uk..
    7 points
  10. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY MAR 5TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An occluded and weakening front across Central Britain this morning will pull away SE through the day clearing the east coast tonight and leaving a rather cold Northerly air stream across the UK for the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around about the 2000ft mark for much of the weekend but maybe a little lower than this under the occluded frontal zone at first. Snowfall amounts will be small or negligible for most through this weekend with any snow light and fleeting over higher ground exposed to the north once today's occluded front has gone. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure moving East then SE to the North or east of the UK in the next 3-4 days. Thereafter the Thereafter the flow backs West to east across the UK late next week at least for a time before becoming less clear cut in positioning and strength towards the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the same pattern as has been shown for days now with the cold and changeable conditions giving way eventually to milder West or even very mild SW winds for a time by next weekend with rain at times towards the North. In week 2 the High pressure area to the South builds North through the UK with fine and settled weather for all. However, it looks like temperatures would fall back again with frosts at night before changeable Westerly winds return at the end of the run. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a variation on the same theme as the Operational today with chilly North winds backing to a milder West or SW flow by next weekend with the second week seeing High pressure build across the UK from the South or SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards Low pressure close to northern Scotland or to the NE with cyclonic winds across the UK from the West or NW the most likely option with rain or showers at times. Up to 20% of members support a more High pressure based pattern centred near to the SW of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning has a much flatter look about it today meaning cold weather will depart to the East by midweek with a milder Westerly flow with rain at times especially across the north and West of the UK taking hold through the second half of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show good support for it's operational partner with fronts orientating more West to East across the UK towards midweek with rain at times and less cold air filtering in from the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning takes a different approach and instead of allowing milder westerlies midweek shows a Low pressure taking a more SE route down across the UK with more rather cold conditions with rain and hill sleet clearing as High pressure builds behind it across the South. This then extends across all areas later with dry benign days but frosty nights where skies stay clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM takes the milder route with rain spreading from the West midweek replacing the rather cold conditions until then. rain will be most prevalent towards the North and West by next weekend with milder air by then for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today returns to it's milder roots this morning following last night's changes. Therefore although mild weather is shown to take until Thursday/Friday next week to take a strong foothold once it does temperatures could exceed average levels in the South with rain from fronts more restricted towards the North and West as High pressure builds to the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN Not released at time of publishing this morning's report. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be continuing to give good cross model support for a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.2 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.3 pts to 61.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 49.5 pts to 47.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Things may look very different synoptically by this time next week if this morning's output is anything to go by. The main culprit of the change to milder air next week is the re-orientation of the Jet Stream which has recently been pulled South over or to the West of the UK with Britain being on the cold side of this. By the middle of next week the jet flow backs West to East over the UK or even further North with the potential for some very mild weather to threaten the South at least on a week's time. In the meantime we still have 3-4 days of rather cold and rather changeable weather to come with a little rain or even snow at times over the hills before a band of wind and rain midweek opens the door to the Atlantic. thereafter there looks to be rain at times in strong west winds for the North, but less so for the South before all areas look like becoming dry and fine at some point through the second week as there appears sound support for pressure to rise strongly then at least for a time. This may mean of course temperatures falling back somewhat again with the re-introduction of a frost risk at night but any daytime sunshine should support temperatures still approaching normal values of not above dependent on where the resting place of any High pressure may end. Towards the very end of the period the usual variability of output is shown with the favoured Atlantic westerly option hinted at returning again by the GFS model in particular. So as I said yesterday a typical early Spring mix of weather across the UK in the next few weeks but on the face of it it doesn't look that bad. Next Update Sunday March 6th 2016 from 09:00
    7 points
  11. Why not? It isn't an outrageous suggestion. In 2008 there was settling snow in London on 6 April.
    6 points
  12. I'm sorry your post is nonsense. And insulting to Scotland and N/Ireland. If the UK votes out Scotland will leave the UK. And you obviously seem to have forgotten the previous troubles in N/Ireland. And I won't take lectures from a Trump supporter. And where did I say I don't like democracy?
    6 points
  13. I think you're absolutely right to keep posting these ensemble charts as I think they make a point. Pressure is going to rise towards the UK next weekend - but will it rise through us? Cold is finally boarding the Siberian express to Europe - but how deep? The warm weather will surely come now, but it's going to be fascinating to see what it leads to after. A full blown Siberian blast is not completely dead in the water.
    5 points
  14. It's largely connected to the CAP, in short the rebate is funded by the UK surrendering it's full CAP entitlement. This means UK agriculture gets the least support in the EU, and Scotland fares worst of all (such that Scotland has fallen below the permitted lower support limit such that so called 'uplift payments' have been made to compensate that, but the money which should have gone to the Scottish Government - from where it should have gone into agriculture - was instead pocketed by HM Treasury with only 8% passed onto the SG). It's one of numerous aspects where the UK has traded the wellbeing of it's rural areas as a 'price worth paying' at the EU negotiating table. The problem in many cases is not actually the EU, but the manor in which the UK has interacted with the EU.
    5 points
  15. Beer garden stuff next weekend and following few days from GFS12z, lovely - early spring warmth !
    5 points
  16. Based on the SSW and final warming I would think. There will be a tanking -AO and the cold air has to go somewhere.
    5 points
  17. It was just good natured banter knocker, I wasn't knocking you or anything. I have enjoyed reading this thread tonight with peope being extra nice to each other..much better than bickering!..and i had snow today
    5 points
  18. Turning drier and milder by next weekend, this extending northwards with time according to the ECM That day 9 chart is a cracker with widespread fine weather and the 12C isotherm approaching the south of the UK. GFS and GEM solutions Pretty good support for this solution, the JMA is cooler with the pattern a little further west.
    4 points
  19. Again after mid month we see another change to cooler weather A short period of HP for the UK giving milder conditiond before a change to cooler /colder weather as we head towards Easter, falling Snow cannot be ruled out
    4 points
  20. I have to do this in the UK. Far from being 'free', I'm charged for the NHS every month. I had to apply for a national insurance number to work, and it even says 'insurance' on my payslip deduction. Comes off whether I use the NHS or not, just as you'd expect for insurance. I don't mind though; it's a decent service and excellent value for money when you do need it.
    4 points
  21. I'm afraid that is just poor. We should be looking at this and see what the consequences if any, to aid our understanding of future SSW events. Should look beyond just looking for cold and snow.
    4 points
  22. The ECM less interested this morning in building that stronger block although the overall pattern is similar. The T168 and T192hrs is the timeframe to watch as that's when the Atlantic troughing starts to dig further south and this is when the models might force a stronger ridge north ahead of that. Even if that happens though you still need some way to get the cold in from the ne, if theres to be a sudden change in the outputs with a quick trop response to the SSW then it will show up within the next few runs as the SSW is due within the next 24 hours.
    4 points
  23. Certainly PM. Sidneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
    4 points
  24. As already stated looking good for some settled and warmer weather starting towards the end of next week. The anomalies all agree with the trough mid Atlantic and the HP very adjacent to the UK with the upper flow in the westerly quadrant. It does depend to a certain extent on the exact orientation of the surface HP but there is some wiggle room it looks okay for a few days. Moving forward it's not quite so clear cut. NOAA does build weak heights towards the Pole but still maintains a westerly flow so no major problem. The EPS 10-15 is actually very similar although perhaps orientated more towards Greenland. This is actually a bit deceptive as it's a five day average and if you look at individual days towards the end of the run the HP retrogresses and with the trough to east edging west as well the upper flow veers to N of W bringing the temps down to average and again some periods of unsettled weather. I think this is still a work in progress.
    3 points
  25. Seeing as my house currently does not have a roof on it lol!!! this chart is just lovely. (by the way I am not currently living in it hahahah)
    3 points
  26. HS2 in principle is needed, the WCML is beyond capacity at it's Southern end and that limits options for local services and for reducing journey times to Scotland and NW England to make train travel more competitive with air travel. The problem with HS2 is that all the spend is going into very fast line speeds over relatively short distances in the most populated part of the UK, which means the costs are astronomical. More flexible routing avoiding at least some of the controversy and thus mitigation costs could be achieved by building the Southern end of HS2 to 125-140mph line speed, and arguably that would provide more capacity as well. Much higher speed running could be achieved further North where routing the line is less difficult, it could thus be achieved at less cost per mile, allowing very high speed running over a significantly longer distance, where the distances being travelled are longer so the speed is of more benefit. There is also an urgent need to decide on the outline proposals for future Northern extensions such that the stalled Edinburgh to Glasgow HS link can start to progress, it's critical that it ties together if there is to be the step change in journey times to reduce domestic air travel on the British mainland. *sorry off topic
    3 points
  27. great charts Frosty, hope mushymanrob a few posts above is wrong
    3 points
  28. Quite correct Sidney's nephew is already smelling the coffee
    3 points
  29. After a wobble last night ECM is back on track bringing in some significantly milder air later next week and into the following week With the days getting longer and the sun getting stronger we could be seeing temps reaching the high teens in the south should we see some sunshine
    3 points
  30. Ed... I am keeping my powder dry, until you are in Poland, then I will arrange for you to have to apply and pay for you own health insurance.. Don't forget to include in the costs of removal in your budgeting!!!
    3 points
  31. Sorry to go on - if thats the case why is it ok for you to say it wont snow, lets be fair Mush
    3 points
  32. Let's hope so Phil, some recent runs have shown similar outcomes for mid March bringing pleasantly warm and settled conditions it would make a nice change to see high pressure in the ascendancy after months of seemingly endless Atlantic depressions with barely any respite!
    3 points
  33. And as we speak it's snowing outside, love it
    3 points
  34. Try the very recent, very cold and snowy March, WINTER 2013!! Interesting meteorology right there!!
    3 points
  35. Mushy The charts I posted earlier in the thread shows a possibilty of colder weather after mid month - it snowed here yesterday with temps at 5c , so why cant it at Easter.? You yourself said it could well be colder at Easter - so I assume you are saying HP sat directly over us,?
    3 points
  36. ECM brings in spring proper from late next week could easily get into the high teens in the latter stages in the south if we got some sunshine
    3 points
  37. A fascinating period coming up I feel. Firstly, most models agreeing upon the sudden onset of spring next week, with even 20C not off the table. But then after, well, I'm drawn to those of runs that throw Eastern Europe into their coldest spell of the whole season mid-month, with uppers between -10C and -16C. And at the same time, an SSW which might just lend itself to a "Svalbard block". (Stress: MIGHT) We're even seeing southerly tracking lows heading towards this cold pool on some GFS runs. Reminds me a bit of April 1989 -basking in mid 60s over the Easter weekend, but 5 days later, 3 inches of snow on the ground (the only snow of the year in the SE). It's all about getting that cold pool into Eastern Europe between D6 and D10. If it does, don't write off a wintry shock after any mid-month warm up. If it doesn't, probably game over for snow.
    3 points
  38. Ignore those height rises in the Svalbard area at your peril... the ECM ensembles and NOAA analysis show good support for that (despite the large variance in the former, which arguably makes the mean charts poorer than usual guidance for the time being) and it can draw up a Euro High to the high latitudes really quite suddenly if there is upstream amplification - which there really should be going by the MJO behaviour. I am wary of taking these fine, springlike chances seriously right now - we've seen a few supposed shifts north of the jet turn out to be red herrings these past two months and as a result I figure this needs another 1-3 days of model runs before we can be confident in things going one way or the other. Believe me, after another dose of sleety rubbish I'm as keen to be shot of winter as anyone - but I just can't quite bring myself to believe it in the face of what the global teleconnections are suggesting. If ever I've hoped to get it wrong...!
    3 points
  39. It's supposed to be taken in the context of my previous post Frosty. I forgot to add I wasn't taking into account Mars being in a retrograde orbit.
    3 points
  40. All I can say about the ECM run is this. Celebrating it is like celebrating a 0-0 draw in football. It isn't cold or warm, just grey and cool and pleases absolutely no one.
    3 points
  41. Thanks phill. We have been open to the elements for a while now and only lost a few days to the weather which isn't to bad! Though the settled and warm ECM Op is certainly inviting Note my temporary roof over the kitchen lol! (totally off topic I know)
    2 points
  42. But still only 3 weeks till clocks go forward. Half 7 sunsets or later for 5 months thereafter.
    2 points
  43. March/April can hold plenty of variety in the model outputs as the vortex gradually fragments and we see ridges and troughs developing and moving around the hemisphere. As we have seen many times in the past early Spring can be cold with single figure max's changing almost overnight to warm and sunny in the high teens a few days later and back again. Last night here was freezing with a 2hr snowfall leaving a covering of around 2cms,now all gone of course.Next week-end we could well be basking in warm sunshine if current outputs verify.Thereafter hints in later gefs of a Scandi.trough and colder north westerlies again. Plenty of interest if a weather enthusiast with such variety on offer at this time of year.
    2 points
  44. If that chart does verify though, it could be setting up for a cold easter, although the caveat that there is less margin for error with any subsequent cold synoptics.
    2 points
  45. Snowing here, big flakes, nice to see it falling down, wont blink or i will miss it
    2 points
  46. Every year I promise myself I will not look at the Netweather seven day forecast....so many promises of snow that never, ever transpire...yet still I do it....sick to death of this horrible winter, of the endless wind, rain, mud, wind, rain and yet more rain...and the mud. Lost count how many bad falls I have had trying to cross the field to feed my horses. I'm no spring chicken and it hurts! Fed up with no snow, fed up with mud and fed up with downgrades.....rant over....
    2 points
This leaderboard is set to London/GMT+01:00
×
×
  • Create New...