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Hmm - that's a bit misleading. Reading the tweets I'd totally disagree. The most recent refers to a resumption of a continental feed, and another speaks of longer term shift to below average conditions from the NW. He says no sign of real cold next week yet BUT acknowledges plenty of time for changes. Let's make sure we post accurately.

I felt I had to comment on developments in model output this morning, even though they are tentative and a long way off yet. There has already been some back-tracking on the forecast return of the Atlantic systems over several days, but what I have been watching with interest is the large HP off N Russia and towards the Pole. In spite of the models trying to kill it off, it's still there. In fact, the GEM is creating a new scenario this morning involving linking it to developing HP over W and NW Europe, with a significant easterly developing. Actually, it bears some striking similarities to what happened in January 1947! I can't help but think there is still too much ambivalence over the usual return to the SW flow from the models. I think we need to watch how the upper flow develops in the next few days as this could be crucial in deciding how the longer term will pan out. A big sturdy ridge extending NE, as portrayed by the GEM might seem too much to hope for but as I see things setting themselves up at present, I think it remains a distinct possibility.

i think there's someone in the Atlantic beckoning to the Beast to come over...

January 29th 1954 was such a day. I was a tot, but it started my interest in cold weather and snow. It snowed all day in Hampshire with no wind and temperatures well below freezing. Seemed to me like sugar falling out of a grey sky. The charts for the 18th and the 29th show how quickly it can change in what I believe was an El Niño year.

Regardless of how the 06Z continues to develop it goes to show how the models can make me look a fool. A few days ago I would never of thought the GFS would show the synoptics at +192 on the 06Z run. I am thinking I should shut up and stop making predictions and comment on what the models ARE showing!

Forget the vagaries of the op runs, the big news for cold lovers is that todays noaa anomaly charts now keep the high very close to the uk, they dont allow the mild southwesterlies to take hold and stick. Theres a great opportunity on these for a scandinavian high and a very cold evolution. Of course further runs are needed to consolidate this shift but imho those of you seeking cold would be justified in raising hopes.! Sorry, cant post them, im on my tablet.

Evening!.... Ok the 12zs ops were not that inspiring for deep cold , but the blocking is there for sure to the East. The Atlantic has been halted across the nation except for the far west and it was only a few days ago that the Atlantic was the form horse. Fridays rain has been delayed time and time again. I Myself have been roped in about the Atlantic coming in looks like Im wrong! Tomorrows charts will show big changes... The end of January and early February are statistically the coldest time in the Northern Hemisphere. With reasonable confidence of Strat Warming and that breaking the Polar Vortex to pieces its fair to say we have some good chances of seeing some deep Winter weather in the weeks ahead....

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure over SW England will weaken and move back SW later. Another trough over Central Scotland will also weaken as it moves slowly South. A High pressure ridge will build across the UK late today and tomorrow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from SW England where the level is nearer 4000ft today, falling later. Snowfall is most likely across Central Scotland this morning gradually dying out later. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will move SE across the UK and to the East for a day or two before becoming light and insignificant for a few days from midweek. Then towards the weekend the flow moves East across the UK for a time, albeit relatively weakly before throughout the second week it is shown to be very variable in both strength and location over this side of the Atlantic. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today looks rather different to yesterday with High pressure to the East and SE this week proving reluctant to give way to the fronts moving in from the West at the end of the week. As they move across the UK they weaken with some rain and milder air in tow. Following on pressure builds again, first from the South-east and then the North as fine and eventually quite frosty conditions return to many areas next week. Towards the end of the run the High responsible pulls away SE with stronger SW winds and rain moving across all areas along with milder temperatures. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today also shows a lot more persistence of High pressure to the East and SE through the period this morning with rather cold and dry conditions developing this week giving way briefly with somewhat less cold SSE winds and some rain for a time towards the weekend. then as High pressure to the East builds back it becomes rather cold and mostly dry again next week before things turn milder and more unsettled again late in the run especially over the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 55% pack with mild SW winds and rain at times with High pressure to the South. 30% go for a more direct blanket of High pressure covering the UK while 10% show very unsettled and windy weather with deep Low pressure just to the North. An interesting 5% only at this stage go for a High pressure area over Iceland and Low pressure across Iberia and the Met with a strong and cold East flow across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the High pressure area delivering rather cold but dry conditions through the working week. Over Friday and the weekend it weakens and allows some weakening troughs NE across the UK with less cold air and some rain followed by brighter conditions especially across the South and East as High pressure remains quite close to the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today still shows a slow and arduous battle across or to the West and SW of the UK between mild Atlantic air and rather cold and dry air across the UK as High pressure builds and moves SE into NW Europe later in the week. Fronts to the West and SW then make some inroads into the UK by the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning is largely High pressure based with the centre over the North sea this week maintaining cold and mostly dry weather. Then at the end of the week and weekend the High recedes away SE for a time as a trough brings rain and less cold air for a time. Following on behind is brighter and drier weather again as pressure builds again from the South and SE. the theme next week is then for rather cold and dry weather for many again especially in the South and East as High pressure to the East extends a ridge West across the UK with any milder weather restricted to the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains it's similar theme to yesterday towards somewhat miler air making it across the UK by next weekend. In the meantime a lot of rather cold and benign weather looks likely with some frost and fog at night and occasional rain in the SW. Then next weekend a NW/SE split sets up with milder and changeable conditions in SW winds over the NW while the South and East still look mainly dry, perhaps with slight frost at night continuing in light winds but temperatures near average at least by day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows a slow breakdown of High pressure to the East late this week but it does look like it may only be temporary as after a spell of rain for some pressure rebuilds to the East allowing a continental feed at times across at least the South early next week with milder Atlantic air still trying to push up against a cold block of High pressure to the East late in the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a pressure pattern which has backed west over the last day or so having Low pressure further West near Southern Greenland and pressure somewhat higher over Northern Europe. To me this suggests that more of a Southerly flow with more of a continental influence to the east and South next week is possible. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards a somewhat shorter spell of milder winds late this week with the theme of more influence from High pressure to the East and SE next week growing too. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.7 pts to UKMO at 87.7 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.9 pts over GFS's 64.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.8 pts to 47.0 pts respectively. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS While last week saw massive swings between the outputs run to run we have at least this morning some common ground again which leads to there being a greater level of confidence on the general theme of the weather in the coming weeks. As we move further out of course confidence weakens but the trends are very important and I can report that within these trends today there is some interest for those looking for cold weather. In the here and now the weakening rain band in the SW and the trough delivering patchy snow in Scotland will all dissipate within the next 24 hours as the cold air wins back as High pressure slides down from the North across the UK giving most of the UK three days of cold and bright conditions with some night frosts. All output then show this High receding away onto Europe allowing a trough of Low pressure within milder SW winds to engulf the UK on Friday or Saturday. Once passed it is increasingly shown today that pressure will build again especially across the South and East especially with High pressure building back North and maybe West too into next week. If we can get this second build of pressure to move further North over Europe then the resultant backing winds across the South would likely re-introduce a continental flow to the winds and return lower temperatures again to the South and East of the UK at least. There is plenty of indication within the models this morning that this could happen with the GFS Operational showing High pressure developing near the North of the UK too in the second week bringing it's own theme of colder weather from that source too. While nothing particularly exciting is shown within the output to suggest snow and ice this morning the previously model runs of mild and windy weather have largely been watered down this morning in preference to perhaps the building blocks to draw something cold from the East quite soon. Let's just hope this morning's small changes are the precursor to further enhancements of this type of solution giving a spell of dry and cold weather again as a trip back to mild and wet conditions that's been hinted at of late is something I'm sure none of us want to see. Next Update Tuesday January 19th 2016 from 09:00

Well on the face of it it SEEEMS like the mild air will cover us later in the week. Typical ECM mean for the weekend HOWEVER an interesting update from METO (Tomasz Schafernaker) indicating that progress against the block could be anything but certain http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35348988 I like the bit about the door being open for a potential cold blast from the east next week!!

Great progress over the past 24 hours toward getting a new bout of significant WAA going way poleward. For example, ECM 00z det. of yesterday on the left compared with that of today on the right: Essentially we have seen a more meridional jet pattern emerge first across the U.S. and then the Atlantic, which leads to both the vortex to our NE being more toward Canada and that area of low pressure in the Atlantic dropping down to the west of the UK rather than racing NE to merge with the low heights to our NW. Longer term shows an even more dramatic change, as you'd expect: A boxing glove is thrust into the face of the vortex on this morning's run, and GFS wants to take it further still, though fails to capture the likely response thereafter. We actually have the models in a state of confusion regarding the tropical forcing - just look at the MJO plot below-left: Very untidy, and reminiscent of what we saw mid-Dec '15, prior to the MJO setting off on that major orbit through phases 4 to 8. I also recall GEFS attempting to take the MJO back to phase 2 then round to 3 again. Talk about de ja vu! The other models are thinking about emerging on the Pacific side but not really going for it. A basic statistical outlook (middle image) seems more sensible on an intuitive level, but these models don't factor in dynamical events that tend to mute the signal to some extent. Also shown on the right is the latest GEFS outlook for the GWO with respect to global AAM. Further reflections on the past here too, as GEFS mid-Dec was keen to head to phase 1 prior to what turned out to be another orbit through 5/6/7. Basically GEFS is displaying a serious habit of generating a false La-Nina type signal for some reason. A bias has been known of for a long time, and I suspect the unusually warm Indian Ocean is enhancing this trait. The alterations within the next 5-7 days seem to be more a reflection of the amplification signal from the Pacific having been underestimated. I wonder if we are again seeing a lack of a single dominant area of convection/wind anomalies, due to the extensive nature of positive SST anomalies across the global tropics, which is confusing the models much as we saw for a time last month. From this, I would infer that this is very much the case: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.gif

ECM taking us out until nearly the end of Jan now and the dilution of the rampant vortex continues. u wind reducing significantly, albeit not to technical SSW more MMW event or one of the other categories. W1 strongest have seen this season, I think, fits in with the ever so gradual displacement. And fluxes, we 'nearly' have a poleward EP Flux, more vertical on this plot vs. equatorward. Real interest now things are within ECM range to see how it models things toward end of Jan, can events appreciate or is this as good as it gets versus the monster vortex this season.

The models appear to be increasingly moving away from Atlantic mobility/zonality signal that had been touted recently, this could be down to increasingly amplified northern stream over N America, which carves out a deeper trough over eastern half which will serve to pull the trop PV away from Greenland and toward Hudson Bay. This in turn allowing pressure to build north near the UK and over Europe. A look at 00z GEFS postage stamps at day 10 show sufficient number of members showing high pressure building north over or to the east of the U.K. to give this more amplified rather than zonal signal some weight. This is also shown by the 00z GEFS mean at d10 shorter term, the return of milder conditions still not fully resolved, 00z GFS op not spreading milder air (8C+) northeast until Saturday, at least for England & Wales, while EC seemingly turns milder for all Friday.

Certainly hints that any atlantic influence will be shortlived. However lets not get carried away because at this stage a cold SE,ly is more likely than a cold snowy E,ly although obviously this is subject to change. Just for fun a GEFS ensemble member brings 850s as low as -17C!

At this point I would favour some form of Euro/Scandi block developing as we end January, this could be the mild or cold variety depending on how the high develops and hence the flow we get into the UK. There is scope to develop a colder pattern by either being able to pool a cut off area of lo heights westwards from Western Russia (Easterly solution) or drop another deep trough using the same cold pool to our east which is close enough to allow a cold north to north easterly to develop. A few examples at day 10 At this time frame we need to concentrate on firstly establishing a link between the Azores ridge and the high over Russia cutting off the cold pool to our east. The second is two fold, firstly seeing a second push of high pressure align at close to northerly as possible, the second is hoping that the cold pool to our east behaves itself and doesn't do anything which will result in us being stuck under a Euro/Scandi high. Phase 1 (Azores/Russian high link) has a good chance if we go by a few model outputs. GFS/UKMO The GEM never really gets this going with constant interactions between the cold pool and the main area of low heights over the Pole. Hence its very poor week 2 charts.

I know exactly where you are coming from here OMM. Just how on this Earth did the output ,which quite frankly would have had this forum stocking up on Prozac,go from this as flat as you like with a menacing PV In incidentally this Jet profile is strangely close to the one at present To this 2 days later Ridiculous how the heights moved north GFS 06z Uncanny The rest as they say is History Or is it just History??? Or are the models toying in preparation? GFS ECM GEM There have always been comparisons of sort but this has an eerie feel to it. I wasn't aware that missiles/torpedos were that powerful back then were you GP?

Well they have happened in the past. But you need the perfect set up and balancing act between the block and the Atlantic trying to get in. Too much of one or the other and you either get the block too strong and diverting low pressure further south or low pressure comes in from the sw at the weak point of the block. At this point I'd settle for a strong ne flow and -15 uppers! lol Good for the UK and me here and we're all happy then!

@Singularity nice discussion on MJO, from tropical genius Mike Ventrice a tweet a couple of days ago discusses the noise from KW. Forecast above indicates still some sign of MJO to initiate in IO toward month end. Some composite work needed I think to look at trends from there. Regarding the 06z developments going to throw in a couple of the strat charts at 150hPa, to show the support for amplification mid range then the movement of the lower vortex segment out at D10, whilst not as robust as charts higher in the strat, again an area to watch for trends.

Hi TEITS, I am mainly a watcher but i thought i would involve myself a little. Your comments over the years are great to encourage the cold lovers, keep it going. Weather makes a fool of us all. I do feel as though February this year is our time for severe weather PS these chart are a great improvement

Theme from the models is to continue to suggest the atlantic isn't going to have its way easily over the week ahead, yes we will lose the cold conditions come Friday as it invades, but it is coming up against a strong block to our east and more importantly ridge development from the south, this latter development will force the atlantic longwave trough to stretch and hit a brick wall, allowing heights to build easily into southern England and most likely merge with those heights to our east, whilst frontal features graze the far NW of the country. I can see a dry end to January and an increasingly cold continental feed of air being pumped across the country. If some of the long range forecasts and teleconnection signals for the northern hemisphere verify we could see a notably sustained cold attack as we enter February with the same heights edging ever westwards.. In the meantime, coldest weather of the season over the next couple of days.. how different things feel to early December!

There has been a few signs of an Omega block setting up around day 10 but if that signal is correct then positioning will be crucial. If the block is over the UK then we will have to wait for any chance of a cold feed but if it sets up further West we will be locked into a polar air flow and if it sets up further East then we will likely a continental flow though more S/SE than Easterly. If it happens my preference would be for a West based block as the guarantees cold uppers but I would much rather it be East based than central based (over the UK) as we will then need to wait for further developments. As things stand the models seem to be favouring and central/East based Omega block should it happen but because it is FI there is room for quite big changes in how the models play around with the prospect of renewed MLB/HLB toward end of January. The prospects for February cold are good when we see blocking in FI as a srong theme but we could still get unlucky and have blocking set up in the wrong areas. Image taken from GFS 06z control run day 10. *For some reason won't let me copy image here so will try in Edit. Edit. Nope I really frickin hate this new forum software, full of bugs, had to copy URL address to get it to work

The distinct possibility of Heights transferring north to put a bit of a positivespin on the tweet Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 37m37 minutes ago @paul78310011 @James1uk yes, key issue after nxt few days is *poss* resumption of colder S/SE continental flow, so zonality not guaranteed

Talks of something much colder end of Jan, beginning of Feb in the Mod thread. Must. Not. Get. Suckered. In. Anything past 144 hours should be banned lol.

Oh yes!

What a miserable day! I swear I could have put my foot through the TV earlier when the forecaster gleefully announced "getting milder"! No one, absolutely no one, needs more wind and rain. No one! Not a single one!

Give it time, Nick - give it time! Notwithstanding tonight's severe frost, the models are currently toying with ideas suggesting that some 'brutal' cold will soon (a week or so, perhaps) arrive form the North or Northeast. And, if that happens, marginality won't come into the equation?

Light snow here so the Met Office are on the money (this time..) -1c Impressed by Blitzen's very handy 'Fife Weather cam' picture I googled "Tomatin weather cam" and then "Tomatin live cam", won't be doing that again.. don't think the "SignupForFreetosee Livecamgirlfrom Tomatin/watchthatgirl.uk" link would show me much weather

Just for fun, but what a superb synoptic that is for us -18*C isotherm covering us just think of the lake effect pilling in from North Sea....although it is the dangerous cold for vulnerable folk.

The best model in our part of the world statistacly is the ECM , with the ukmo Doing more or less as well , the gfs in notorious for not handling blocking events . It's always had a bias toward Atlantic based weather , I suppose climatology backs up the westerly bias . All models get it wrong , and in recent times the ECM has seemingly had a tendacncy to over amplify things , the ukmo has led the way in this cold spell , ok it did over amplify at times but it got the pattern right , when all the others went into an Atlantic frenzy , apart from the gem , which seems to give us the holly grail regularly ! Anyway it's interesting to see models catching onto the fact that actually we won't have weeks of wind and rain , but rather more calm settled weather , with high pressure building over and to our north of us . im off the Austria on sat snow boarding and hopefully when I get back we will be staring down the barrel of record breaking cold and snow !!! I live in hope

Wow, what a snowfest. Precipitation for 10-11 hours on a stalled front in January, who could have wished for anything more. Oh I know the temperatures needed to be 6C lower, that might have helped my dream

Nick That shallow Iceland High is of interest here as will either slide SE and keep Atlantic at bay or will force them on southerly track acros UK IMO and I think it is the point too where outputs will show a critical change [if they are to change] of where we go. RJS picked up on this attempt by mild to re-assert but to ultimately fail reloading to what we still believe will be the coldest hit of winter. Looking at the models, can anyone really say where we are going? I can't BFTP

To get to any cold quicker this is where the outputs could be taking too much energy ne rather than se. You'll see the ECM T168hrs: The two lows and the temporary ridge between them and the ridge over Europe going north in response to the low digging into the Atlantic: Then the ECM T192hrs: The majority of the energy is heading ne. I've picked this timeframe because this is where you can realistically factor in some common model bias. As we've seen from the last week the NWP can make a real mess of undercutting. For this reason I'd be looking for around this timeframe as an area where changes in where the trough energy goes can have a big impact. As we've seen over the last few days the upstream pattern had originally been modelled as flatter, then the outputs now agree on an amplifying shortwave which develops into that deep east USA coastal low. Its this change upstream which is now offering a window of opportunity, this amplification is currently not expected to last with a more progressive flow likely in the central USA working eastwards. I think the issue going forward is whether we'll see this prog flow also re-amplifying to a degree with a series of shortwaves running ene and phasing with the PV over ne Canada. This if it happens could afford another chance. However I'd like to see that T168hrs timeframe built on rather than waiting for a couple of more days for another possible chance.

This is my spring forecast hopecast... Coldest start to spring ever with the first half of March having a CET of around 0 to 1c dominated by bitter easterly winds and strong Scandi heights, deep depressions trying to move in from the SW at times creating epic blizzards burying whole counties with towns and villages cut off for weeks on end. Temps by day struggling to get much above freezing and by night into minus double figures. Becoming less cold for the second half but staying below average with an overall CET around 3c for the month, frosts and snow throughout putting winter 15/16 to shame, a March that will go down in the history books and one we will never see the likes of again... Scenes like this being quite common. April continuing where March left off with persistent easterlies & Scandi heights, cold by day & frosts by night but less in the way of fresh snowfall, below average temps with snow hanging on because it's so deep with a freeze thaw cycle day & night. Temps slowly recovering as we move towards mid month to around average with a proper thaw setting as Scandi heights sink into NW Europe. A mainly dry month but turning more unsettled with time. Below average CET to start but rising toward average in the final weeks. May being the first of the spring months to see double figure temps but also quite unsettled at times with spells of breezy wet weather, the second half of the month probably seeing the first 20c recorded since last year & possibly into the mid 20's with Spanish plumes bringing heat and storms as we move towards June. Average CET becoming above average through the month.

Maybe this might go on to resemble the winter of 1954/55. November and December were mild months, January had its cold spells with snowy moments but then got milder towards the end....and February was epic! It went from this to this 23rd Jan 1955 to 12th Feb 1955

hi all very cold out tonight in London the bbc weather are saying milder in the west of uk at end of week but staying cold in the south east of England and has for next week colder air will win out with a easterly so they must be seeing something are we missing something on here

Hi! Take no notice of weather Apps .they are a waste of time ! Just look at the trend in the models...Apps are updated by Gfs I believe and considering the models inconsistency take then with a pinch ,no a mountain of salt....

I could sum up the ECM 12hrs run as ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!! Off to count the cracks in the ceiling which would be both more interesting and less frustrating! Somehow I can't see the ECM reproducing this level of dullness tomorrow, hopefully!

'Dry' is what pleases me too, and in fact most of the UK especially Cumbrians - the last thing we need right now is more prolonged heavy rain. Also it will be nice to not have to turn on the light at 1pm as its dark and chucking it down outside every single day. Then, comes the prospect of getting a more sustained, prolonged cold over the UK which, should we be lucky enough that the best outcome shown by the models come off would provide ample chilly temperatures and a UK wide snow event. I feel that like Summer 2013 with hot weather, we are well overdue a good winter and now our luck regarding recent miserable mild/wet (2013/14 and 2015/16 part 1 only hopefully) or just uninteresting and occasionally cold but not enough for snow or lying snow for most places (2014/15) is about to change

Given what cross model outputs are currently hinting at in mid/longer term. ..I'd be more optimistic' than the current soon to be previous cold spell. Its no hidden secret that the height reaches being modeled plotting north/northeast. .is arguable for far better chance at firmer/deeper cold!!!! Keep your eyes on the cross model suites....and not the tweets.

The full wintry works here overnight and this morning. A minimum of -0.6ºC overnight and freezing rain to top up the existing snowpack. This turned to snaw for a while around 9am and then as the temperature and dewpoint gradually crept up, it changed to sleety rain. It can now best be described as a wintry mix and it's persisting it down. A lot of hill fog, too. Currently 0.8ºC/1ºC.

It only goes out to the 31st January: why would it be the likely situation for the whole of February? I'd be surprised if the +ve height anomaly didn't shift W into the Atlantic on the next update anyway, purely based on the last couple of GFS/GEFS runs.

Looks like the amplification signal is strongly supported, but with little consensus on how it manifests with respect to the blocking. As Nick has just said/implied, a sharp enough low with trough disruption and low heights moving SE is the best outcome for getting cold conditions sooner rather than later, as the 12z JMA of yesterday showed us in spectacular fashion. - and thanks @lorenzo, it's good to know that I'm not spouting nonsense as I come to terms with the complexities of tropical forcing I see the northern-hemisphere-only eastward propagating convection signal in the Pacific remains in the output, this being what GP referred to a few days back with respect to another surge in AAM. Linked to the anticipated MT event over the Rockies I think?

GFS parallel going over the top again.

Thanks everyone :). I wasn't far off figuring out what the background intent of the acronym was intended for then, which is good. PS - as an F1 fan, I'd argue they often go off into the realm of FI. Take for example the originally proposed rules change for 2017 and how the current proposals have been massively watered down.

The origin of the torpedo can be seen in this post https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84756-model-output-discussions-pm-311215/?page=20#comment-3313293 which relates the possibility and impact of northward propagating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies. However a search for the term 'torpedo' shows that it then took on a life of it's own such that it was responsible for just about any potential cold spell on the horizon, quite amusing - https://forum.netweather.tv/search/?&q=torpedo&page=1

I think if theres going to be a big change in the outputs its likely to occur around T168hrs. This is the timeframe when that eastern USA low moves off the east coast of the USA and develops a small ridge between it and the low to the west of the UK. The question is if we can see enough sharpness develop to the low to the west of the UK to send more energy se'wards.

I think you should post more often because the models are forever making me look stupid but hey that's why model watching is so addictive especially lately best charts popping up since 2013 09/10 so 1 easterly for 1 day with snow id be happy. theres fair few models with same sort of ideas so theres every reason to be quietly confident although my sofa has bald patches well so do I after recent ups and downs. but no need now for a pattern reset lets see if the current pattern will build into something a little special its happened before and will happen again at some point. infact was it not feb 2013 that was a feb cold spell that continued into march. my dad said the other day winter used to be from jan through march back in the day.

Gonna put that in my favourites

Could be describing Summer to be honest. :p

i proper take my hat off to this guy... cant wait for his blog tomorrow night Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 5 hrs5 hours ago If I am sacrificing my holiday to spend the entire day on the AO blog, you know I think it is going to be good

A few of these are starting to appear in the GEFS.