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Today the Astronomic winter has officially begun! Or well, winter… in the Netherlands we have yet reached another all-time record daily high. We have seen so many daily temperature records here that people barely notice them anymore. However, there is of course much more going on behind the scene! Most importantly, a significant pattern change is bound to take place the next couple of days. Will it bring significant winter weather? Or are we going to see a continuation of this extreme mildness? Of course much will change over the next few days regarding the outcome, but still we can definitely say some specific things about the weather to expect. Before doing that, I would like to take you through a tour showing just how unique the warmth is we are experiencing. Time to dive into the Spring month called December! A crushing month A record-warm December month is what this month will certainly be. But this December monthly record is not going to be broken, it is going to be literally crushed. And that is something we can say 9 days before the closure of the month. The previous December record high mean temperature stood at 7.3*C, set in 1974. Currently, December 2015 has a mean temperature of 9.6*C, a whopping 2.3*C above the previous record. And this is not going to change much, judging from the latest ECMWF ensemble: ECMWF temperature ensemble for De Bilt, the Netherlands from the 00Z run of 22-12. Source: Weerplaza. The blue line denotes the average temperature for December. The black line indicates the mean temperature that one can roughly expect averaging all the members. This temperature equals about 9*C. Applying a rough calculation, this would mean that the final temperature will reach 9.4*C, which is more than 2 (!) degrees above the previous all-time mean temperature high for December. South-westerlies “ohne ende” It has been windy during most of December, but most impressive is the prevailing wind direction. The image below shows this: Wind direction and -strength for De Bilt, the Netherlands for December 2015. Source: KNMI. It will not get much more south-westerly-dominating than this. About 90% of the time the wind has had a southerly component. Roughly speaking, the source location of the air has been’ tropical’ most of the time, originating from the seas near the Azores. These locations aren’t standing out for their cold winters weather to say the least. Given all this, it seems clear that lots will be written in the media about the unpreceded warmth in the coming days. I’ll provide a short update once this record-breaking December has come to a close. Polar vortex on the move From looking to the past we are now going to turn our eyes to the future. As Nick alluded to in the previous post, one of the most significant changes taking place is the position of the (lower stratospheric) polar vortex. 100 hPa heights for today 00 UTC as analysed by ECMWF. Roughly, the center of the low pressure area indicates the location of the polar vortex.. Source: FU Berlin. For now, the Stratospheric polar vortex looks to be rather circular. However, things are going to change a lot, as we can see 8 days later: 100 hPa heights for T+192 (8 days out) as forecasted by ECMWF 00Z run of 22-12. Source: FU Berlin. The first thing that shows up is that the polar vortex will be by far not as circular as it is now. In fact, its main centre has moved southwestward towards Greenland. It needs to be stressed that this is all is not caused by a SSW. From zonal to blocked? Often, such pattern changes in the stratosphere result in amplification of the flow near the surface as well. This means that the flow starts to be more north-south or south-north oriented instead of east-west. In other words, the Jetstream starts to meander a lot. This is also what we are going to see happening as well. For us, the most important ‘consequence’ of this all is that ahead of the polar vortex, high heights start to build at this level giving credits to believe that this will also lead to a significant blockade at the surface in the proximity of Scandinavia. So far, December has represented high pressure over Central Europe. So what are the differences compared to what we have seen during the first parts of December? 1) Low pressure activity is more active near Greenland and to the south. 2) High pressure activity over central Europe is anchored slightly more to the north (though the exact location remains to be seen). A setup to winter weather? With such a setup forecast, a high pressure area at the surface near Scandinavia is a distinct possibility. Does that also mean that winter weather is on the way? The answer is most likely not. But why? For the reason why it is useful to look at the ECMWF and GFS for 10 days out: ECMWF (left) and GFS (right) 500 hPa heights (colours) and surface pressure (black contours) 12Z T+240. Source: Wetterzentrale. The plots given above are for 2.5 days further out than the stratospheric charts of the ECMWF presented above. In both cases we see the polar vortex nicely represented at 500 hPa as well by the purple colours (very low heights, so intense troughing). Both charts also show something of a Scandinavian/European high pressure area. But both charts are definitely not suggesting anything wintry. These charts would result in a continuation of south-westerlies instead. Why is that the case? The ‘block’ is in both the ECMWF and GFS located too far to the east to be of much influence on the weather in Western Europe. It only tends to hold up approaching low pressure systems from entering Europe, instead sending them northward towards Iceland. The troughing over the Central Atlantic, on the other hand, is able to exert its influence over Western Europe. As we are going to be located in the upper branch of the troughing, the consequence is again mild southwesterlies. Back to where we started: southwesterlies “ohne ende” What we can conclude is that, despite the pattern change occurring in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the result is only a continuation of the same theme. With blocking in the upper atmosphere to be set firmly in place, the southwesterlies could last for quite some time, making after a record warm end of December also a very mild start of January a very distinct possibility. The best evidence for this can be found in the ensemble forecast for the wind direction. ECMWF ensemble of wind direction for De Bilt, the Netherlands from the 00Z run of 22-12. Source: Weerplaza. 180 degrees indicate southerlies whereas 225 degrees denote south-westerlies. The black line is drawn to emphasize the ‘location’ of south-westerlies. Even past the start of January, most ensemble members show a domination of south-westerlies. For example, at January 5, the chances on a southerly to south-westerly wind direction still seems to be about 80%. This, in combination with the ‘stuck’ upper pattern and the very mild ensemble temperature forecasts given at the very start of this post, lead me to believe that for the next 2 weeks or so, the weather will be most likely on the mild side. The question is only by how much. Concluding note I hope with this post I have shown just how extraordinary this December has been. And that even when the ultimate weather near the surface does not change, the developments taking place aloft can still be very interesting to follow! If you have any questions, do not hesitate to ask! And finally, a nice Christmas and best wishes to 2016 to all. Hoping for an interesting 2016 weather-wise! Other sources For the daily records, the following sources were used as well: Weergegevens MSCHA

I'm going to take a break from model watching too over the xmas period and will be back around October 2016 and hopefully we'll see a pattern change! Just want to wish all NW members a merry Xmas and Happy New Year and enjoy Easter

Well i have enjoyed my week of from looking at the models,having a Look through this mornings models,you have to say it is quite dire If like me you are looking for cold/snow,however its the weather and Unfortunately there is nothing we can do about it,i do feel our fortunes Will change,but i think at this stage we will be looking to the last third Of January.i do expect some PM blasts though through the early part Of January,very similar to last year,on that note back to another weeks Break from model watching,i would like to take the opportunity to wish All the moderators,and all the members of this forum a very happy Christmas,stay safe,and lets hope for a better outlook for us Coldies in 2016 All the best C.S

Cor blimey - it is depressing in here today. But I think some meat on the bones above is due - and also strat junkies need to get their radar right. Firstly - all 13 of the MJO models available over at the CPC are today forecasting move into a decent phase 6 in the next few days. Firs thing to note there is that this has taken the models by surprise - if you check the verification stats for the MJO GFS you will see that the last 2 weeks has seen a constant undermodelling of the strength of the convective pattern out in the Pacific, and I would hazard a guess that the models may continue to do this. And yet - the ECM MJO forecast today is much more vigorous than it was yesterday... and the forecast today from our own MoGreps model - highly regarded I believe - shows a clear signal for continued strong MJO activity heading towards phase 7: It is a pity Mogreps does not go much further out... but both ECM and GFS today are singing to the same tune. If we get to phase 7 - and to be clear this is still obviously an if - then the January composite is much better viewing for those who like their winter cold: Secondly I think people need to start viewing the Strat with a sense of perspective. A full vortex breakdown is obviously the holy grail for cold lovers.... but in reality total breakdowns do not occur every year... and many cold spells from the past have not materialised from total breakdown scenarios. A weakening of the vortex combined with a favourable pacific MJO may well be all we need to get blocking in the right place, and so it irritates me to see tweets from those like Ventrice used as though they are proof of the end of winter. That is total nonsense. Our current setup has a little way to go yet, and then as GP stated the other day it looks odd on that the pattern will shift to the east and the trough drop over the UK. Temps back down to somewhere near normal with the chance of height rises in mid atlantic as well as in western Russia. What happens after that will be hugely dependent on correct MJO modelling as well as trop led disturbance to the vortex - both of which many of us are pleased to see aligning in the right direction. Just how well the convection will hold together in the pacific, and just how great an impact wave breaking is going to have on the vortex is up for grabs. Both may fail. Both may succeed. We may get partial joy from one or both. BUT for sure the pattern is at the peak of its dreadfulness, and statistically we all know that front loaded El Nino winters get less zonal and more blocked as time passes. So let's keep a bit of perspective. We need to ride out 2015 and see what occurs in the first week or so of January. If the MJO begins to camp in the COD and wave breaking simply bounces off the vortex then by mid January perhaps we can start to worry. But not yet.

This pattern is disappointing to say the least for cold lovers and maybe even some neutrals as i think many of us would.t mind a bit of seasonal snow and frost around this time of year. Unfortunately we have no magic wand to wave away this endless Atlantic driven setup with the Euro slug to the south and the deep Greenland vortex to our north west. The Day 10 ECM mean and the T384 forecasted neafs ht anomalies tell the story Moderate wave 2 action is going on in the background into the lower vortex as seen with the EP and Scand/Siberian +ve ht anomlies but not enough yet to land any meaninful blows on a very solid and cold Stratospheric vortex. The latest temperature graph shows how cold it is at mid-level,especially over the pole. so we need further wavebreaking and that is why we look to the engine room of the Earth's weather in the Tropical Pacific which is the main driver. A look at an image from the 006z GFS run at T120hrs. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015122206&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=286 shows convection spread right across the warm Pacific-a typical EN pattern.We can also see in this image the moisture conveyor from the Pacific spreading ne over the sub tropical high over the SE of the USA and then ne towards the UK and this has been the picture so far this season. Current forecasts from all the agencies have seen an MJO signal recently in phase 4 and now going into phase 5- still west of the dateline. Composites for high amplitude signal for these phases match current nwp quite well so we expect those Scandi hts to gradually give way to a more zonal westerly pattern come the new year. That setup would see at least temperatures somewhat closer to normal with more chances of some colder polar maritime incursions from the north west from time to time. Scant compensastion i know but probably the best we can squeeze out of this setup whilst we wait in hope for something better down the line.

The models giveth... ....and the models taketh away.. Tonights ECM is the sort of output that turns Nick Sussex's laptop into a lethal flying projectile! Time for the santa smiley.

LOL this winter is an absolute joke, daffodils everywhere, blossom on the trees and the models, don't get me started on the models..But at least it's Christmas!!

As I mentioned in the strat thread earlier this month, some previous strat warming events saw the tropospheric pattern change (i.e. blocking) before the official stratospheric vortex split or displacement. The 1986-87 winter featured a strong El Nino, the strat vortex displacement didn't officially occur until Jan 25th '87' but the infamous brutal cold easterly started early on in the month. Check out this strat loop here: http://www.meteo.mcgill.ca/~pmartineau/updated_graphs/svw_anim/all_gif/1987_01_25 However, we are long way off seeing any major pattern change for now. The tease of the Scandinavian high with deep cold air developing over NW Russia looks to become increasingly out of reach as very low heights/deep cold over Nern Canada and Greenland drives a strong and flat jet up against the +height anomaly trying to build north to the east. The NWP ops and ens are more weighted to pushing the +height anomaly east out of reach of the UK unfortunately. Though one positive, albeit still verging in unreliable timeframe, is that as the low heights spread east again, we gain a colder Pm westerly flow, with increasing chance of northern snow as we enter the new year. However, that's if the models aren't understimating the block to the east! Even though no pattern change looks likely for the foreseeable, thanks to the unhindered and strong polar vortex, the ridging to our east does, at least, seem to be punching the Polar Vortex around a bit, as recent ECM lower strat charts have highlighted next week in the geopotential height field. But are the current waves bouncing against the Polar Vortex more like ping-pong balls rather than canon balls? As Mike Ventrice mentions on twitter, time is running out to weaken the behemoth that is the Polar Vortex this winter. Lets hope a SSW occurs in late Jan, as per Judah Cohen's latest update, to bring a cold end to winter. We may even have a trop pattern change before any SSW, as my example above shows. The MJO looks favourable, but there is a great deal of uncertainty whether the wave will be coherent enough once it reaches phase 7 to really make much effect to change the northern hemisphere teleconnections ... certainly the models aren't picking up on it for now. It's a long waiting game this winter for uncertain reward if any reward.

Jeez look at these

The way the low pressure has a positive tilt rather than a negative one straight away tells you that it's never gonna go under, the same applies to the shape of the high pressure , it's not even vertical , it's slanted clockwise which will always result in one thing , it will get blown out the way and shunted eastwards . All models are struggling at the minute and until the orientation of the high and correct position of the high , and how the various shallow areas of low pressure move in association to that , and how the vortex behaves then the models will continue to flip around with different scenarios

The Boxing Day record maximum is 16.0C set in 1983. This current pattern producing these ridiculous anomalies is IMO unsustainable. It reminds me of a light bulb burning way above its wattage. Its going to collapse around our ears, I fear. The light bulb is going to explode. May-July 2007 crash? April-June 2012 crash? I don't know but this spell is climatologically ridiculous.

Rhere does appear to be NS. I be Im lead to be Having afew technical hitches Atm...excuse me

How do people know the cold weather is further off than ever, i would love to know who can guarantee this as if they can then it would be very easy to do the weather forecast for months ahead nobody knows and nature does what it likes when it likes.

The GEM showing that it's upgrade won't be making much difference to it's position as a less than reliable model !

This is consistent with yesterday's Cohen blog. 'We have been discussing the polar vortex model developed here at AER that predicts the strength of the polar vortex one month in advance. As we discussed in the blog for the past month, the model was predicting the polar vortex to become disturbed the third week of December, which is predicted by the weather models to occur this week. The polar vortex model also predicts a similar perturbing of the stratospheric polar vortex in the first week of January, which again is now being predicted by the weather models. And as we have been discussing, the polar vortex model predicts an even bigger event the second week of January. As we discussed above the predicted atmospheric circulation is nearly optimal for the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere that results in weakening of the polar vortex. Therefore, based on the polar vortex model and the upcoming atmospheric circulation pattern, we are anticipating more upward pulses of WAFz. If the predicted atmospheric circulation pattern is correct and our expectations of more upward pulses of WAFz is correct, this should be sufficient to force a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) sometime in January. And if our expectations of a weakened polar vortex verify, this will likely favor an increased likelihood of severe winter weather across the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. One ongoing inhibiting background factor is the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that favors a strong vortex over a weak vortex. If this prevails and our expectations of an active period of WAFz is incorrect, then the polar vortex will strengthen and likely the AO will remain positive and the weather pattern mild for the Eastern United States, Northern and Western Europe and East Asia. However we are becoming increasingly confident in the first solution of a weakening polar vortex and an increasing bias towards a negative AO.' http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The upward pulses of WAFz are being triggered by the building of a high over Western Russia, which is showing ever more often on the prog charts.

"The good news is that the current CET of +5.1c above average will remain very close to this" Genuine question; can I ask why is this good news???

Could you get any more cliches in that post?

Ok ,i will have a stab at explaining the situation @ 144hrs from ECM,UKMO,GFS,JMA and of cause the GEM the ecm and ukmo both have a positively tilted trough in the atlantic with no shortwave/low in europe to prop up the high preasure the gfs has a slightly negatively tilted trough in the atlantic with a shortwave/low in europe so a bit better than the ecm and ukmo at that stage,the jma is a bit poorer than the gfs with the positively tilted trough but with the shortwave/low in europe Now the gem,with a perfect neg tilted trough in the atlantic with a shortwave/low in the prime position to prop up those hight's to the north this feature is amungst some of the gefs ens and we need to see this continue in subsequent runs oh!,did i mention shortwaves in my post just then fantastic posts by Vorticity and Catacol there,very sensible and understandable

BANK!! Shame it is unlikely to verify, but my word that's good viewing.

If this does mean we have a cool summer than so be it, a nice silver lining.

When do you think this is going to happen? I fear the only SSW in the near future will be the wind direction.

An ensemble forecast comprises multiple realisations for a single forecast time and location. The different realisations are generated through applying different perturbations to a single control forecast. For the ECMWF medium-range forecasting system, the control forecast is a coarser-resolution realisation of the HRES forecast (the high-resolution forecast). The perturbed forecasts are generated through: The ECMWF weather prediction model is run 51 times from slightly different initial conditions. One forecast, called the ENS control forecast, is run from the HRES ECMWF analysis. An additional 50 integrations, the perturbed members, are made from slightly different initial conditions which are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the HRES analysis . The initial perturbations are constructed using the singular vector technique and perturbations generated from the ensemble of data assimilations The mean is the mean of the perturbations.

Which equates to stable, high, +AAM signal, global wind oscillation phase 6 untainted by Indian Ocean convective anomaly. Quite good model agreement for a cyclonic phase to develop, and residual height anomalies centred over the Kara and Barents Seas will tend to force a more negative tilt to the jet. Still no imminent sign of anything unseasonably cold, yet, but this shift in global forcing to a more classical Nino will make life interesting from mid Jan, not least the stratosphere where we will see some more tangible developments from 11th onwards where a big wave 1 and 2 hit is being lined up. cfs hovmollers consistently persisting the tropical forcing just east of the dateline suggesting that this +AO / west qbo regime is beginning to relinquish its grip

Normally this wouldn't be worth posting but since it's Xmas and we have had nothing to cheer this winter.

Those charts you show look very similar at the 500mb level (the coloured contours), the positions of surface lows may often be different between models even at that range., but the 500mb is stable and more predictable. However, there are increasing differences further on in the 8-10 day period between ECM and GFS with regards to maintaing the ridge. But the end result with either solution is that the UK stays mild much of next week. The extended 12z EPS in the means suggests T850 temperatures returning more to average from the west later next week and to start the new year for most, even perhaps slightly below across Scotland. This is in response to a more westerly flow developing as the Sceuro ridge anomaly disappears and a low height anomaly develops centred over the Norwegian Sea and nudging into Scandi by day 15.

I think that given what the 5/6 MJO progression ties in with (a very westerly pattern with blocks blown away), emphasis for the 7-14 day evolution should be one of moving away from a Scandi high and toward a UK/Euro trough with high pressure ridging poleward from the vicinity of Siberia. For that, the westerly push is okay as long as it doesn't go too far... ECM takes it a bit too far for my liking while GFS is very decent. ECM's use of more than one bombing low to get where it does automatically lowers confidence in its solution, but it can't be discounted given the background signals. In the nearer term, the hope is that the transient ridge through Scandinavia can push far enough north to give the vortex something to think about while we wait for the next attack. I had hoped that the vortex wouldn't be quite so strong as it's turned out to be, so as to allow for a bit of distortion and a spell of more interesting patterns around the turn of the new year, but unfortunately it looks like we'll have to settle for chinking away at the vortex's armour to leave it more vulnerable to the next period of wave breaking, which if the MJO makes it to phase 7/8 ought to be considerably greater in magnitude than the one coming up for the closing days of 2015. We were always going to up against it this winter. As for the GEM 12z det. run... whaat

nick will be pleased with the behaviour of his shortwave on GFS this morning - gold star I would think I think GFS may have lost the plot at this point though, not sure I have ever seen two storms so close together.

This could get interesting... Member 18 is obviously extreme and highly unlikely but... it is not without foundation. It will likely pivot around just how far towards the Arctic the WAA can reach. I think there will be a tipping point here. Most still have it getting around Northern Norway, this will most likely be flattened out and we we return to type. If though (BIG if) we can get it piling right up into the Arctic itself then it is potentially game on. This is what we're looking for and has support. Something like this may well be a big outside shot but unlike most cold setups which are capped a lot higher (temp wise), there iis a Jan 1987 scenario here. An Arctic High (albeit this wouldn't be in its truest form) often frustrates but occasionally can produce the jackpot. I'm reading this as the ridging up into Scandi is all but nailed (small blue circle), but how far it gets is anything but (red, high spread area around Svalbard)... It would mean enduring potentially even warmer uppers first but I think most of us would happily take that for a decent shot at this! Worth adding that any further amplitude of the MJO out of Maritime into the Pacific could well help provide the extra boost required here. Even without increased ppn, the current forecast from most models is already looking pretty decent. I think the best way to look at the MJO potentially going into favourable 6/7/8 territory, whilst we may end up with a 'disconnect', it is unlikely to be detrimental, unlike other phases at moderate to high amplitude.

Yup, they are for real! Jolly Boy John dressed up as a wee Scottish elf playing bagpipes wi wee tiny feet an a daft wee tourie spraffin aboot the snaw of christmas past, present an future is for real!

A least we can't say the pub run was boring. It had more floods A fierce storm more floods widespread snow New Years day More floods Another brutal storm More floods

There is a new ECM tool currently running (in pre operational mode) which is the 45 day ens. I don't have the details on the resolution of this model but note that it currently predicts the status quo to be maintained through January apart from a period of Scandi trough late in the month where temps wil drop a bit below average. certainly nothing to get excited about and broadly fits in with the EC 32 output we saw this morning EDIT: just checked ecmwf and the following : New 45 day ens are 18km to day 16 and 36 km days 17 to 45. Impressive! also, the new eps when they come out will be same resolution out to the end of the run at day 15. No longer a drop off at day 11. Also, impressive. I think implementation for all this will be March 2016.

While I share the general lack of confidence in proper cold anytime soon, it's worth noting that the ECM appears to have modelled Nick's Atlantic shortwave badly even in the reliable time frame. Yesterday's 12Z: Today's 12z: It's now showing more or less what the GFS was yesterday. The ECM is King, but it doesn't mean it's always right.

There's a large divergence in outlooks between the ECM and GFS the GFS giving seasonal weather the ECM giving blowtorch southwesterly winds, implying much uncertainty. It is not a done deal in the slightest.

I spent hours today doing a lot more reading about the MJO. For a second I thought I was back at University and having one of those last minute OMG its exam time tomorrow moments. Well maybe they had a Christmas party at NCEP and too much bourbon caused him to download the wrong file. If its not sorted out by tomorrow I'm going to email them! At this point I think its a case of us coldies going down to the casino and placing all our bets on red, red in this case being the MJO. It could well end in tears but given events in the strat the MJO is at the moment looking like the last throw of the dice in terms of seeing some changes within the next two weeks.

While everyone is looking deep into FI much uncertainly over the xmas period. A band of heavy rain needs to be kept an eye at the moment this gets stuck over north wales across the pennines into south yorkshire. A movement further north would not be good at all. Likewise the strong winds forecast in the last runs have also now gone bar the south west late on boxing day. An secondary low brings strong winds across northern england on Xmas eve as well which well worth keeping an eye on as well.

I asked Ian F a couple of questions on twitter yesterday, and he did mention that there is potential for some major trough disruption into January, but stressed tricky detail.

Here we go folks. Back on the road to longer daylight hours and good times.

Yep, not gonna happen but combined with warm SST's that would be an absolute snowmaker. A once in 200 year event, with several unscheduled bank holiday's

It's a fact of life that old bones (me) prefer the milder option for cost, comfort and safety but that doesn't mean we cannot empathise with your passion and fondness for cold weather. We should all feel comfortable here to pursue our hobby without any tags being applied.

The minimum today is 7.2C, while maxima look like being in the mid 13s, so remaining on 9.9C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 9.8C to the 23rd (8.3: +3.6) 9.8C to the 24th (8.6: +3.9) 9.7C to the 25th (8.2: +3.7) 9.7C to the 26th (10.1: +5.8] 9.8C to the 27th (11.1: +7.2) [Record High: 10.6C] 9.8C to the 28th (9.0: +4.9) 9.8C to the 29th (10.8: +6.9) 9.9C to the 30th (12.3: +8.1) [Record High: 11.0C] 9.8C to the 31st (6.3: +1.9)

Every weather type can cause disruption - agreed. However cold snowy weather doesn't make people's homes uninhabitable for months on end like in say Cumbria this year...and Somerset two years ago.

The strength of the ++NAO, and the low pressure systems it sends our way. The upcoming WAA has no foundation from the East to allow it traction to hold and as ever it will be steamrolled East wards. This is the first true attempt to change the pattern. Indian Ocean forcing to finally dissipate and +PNA emerges at years end. Then the hold of El Niño ends and more fluidity to our pattern with assistance from SSW.

Not great news on the ECM monthly update, looking very unsettled and zonal into January especially the further north you are, high pressure to the south or south west and depressions tracking west to east into Europe, not looking as mild as recently though with PM air quite a frequent visitor.

Wouldn't it be amazing if you could step outside and do this.... http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2015/12/pouring-a-thermos-of-hot-tea-at-40c-at-sunset/

well that was a heated, or indeed chilling, exchange - depending on whose prediction you give more weight to. As as is often the case in the Scottish Highlands in December, cold air is never too far away to the north. Whether we manage to to tap into it is something we'll find out in the next couple of days so there's no need to get too worked up for now. At any rate the hills will be white on the big day

My thoughts exactly, thought I'd strayed into the wrong thread. I like the elf though.

You mean we had a couple of colder winters...just like we have a couple of hotter summers 10 years ago. According to some posts, our climate seems to regenerate like Doctor Who these days!

Wee folk? You mean, like, elves?

Hang on... GEFS is taking the convective signal through to phase 7 now, that's a good sign Based on verification over the past 5 days (by eye on my part), an outcome that's about 2/3 GFS and 1/3 UKMO could be a good bet. If that's achieved then we ought to have the launchpad in place for boosting AAM and attacking the vortex via those amplified waves. Which reminds me... So much for the AAM going negative! GFS has completely changed its tune over the past week.