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  1. 6 likes
    Here's some background information on El Nino and CET values that I reviewed as part of my winter forecast preparation. Using the SOI index 1876-2015 on the Australian (bom.au) site, I noted 25 previous El Nino events with a period of 5.5 years, and this would be the 26th one. If you wanted to say 1992 and 1994 were two separate peaks then this makes 26 previous, and this the 27th, period then drops to 5.3 years. Most of the El Nino events peak in the northern hemisphere winter months but a few peaked in the southern hemisphere winter. These I assigned to whichever northern hemisphere winter had the lower average regardless of which side of July 1st the peak occurred. There may be more frequent El Ninos if you counted some weak secondary cases, but as we tend to think of El Nino as a "seven year cycle" I erred on the side of longer intervals where cases seemed marginal. Then I analyzed CET temperatures for each year starting with n-2 (two years before the selected El Nino winter Jan 1), and ran the series for seven years although the 6th and 7th years would include some renewed El Nino peaks as the periodicity varies from 4 to 8 years (5,6,7 about equally likely). What I found was not overly compelling in terms of showing any real correlation between the SOI and the CET. However, the mean for the defined El Nino peak winter (this winter evidently, unless this one turns into something extreme over two years) shows temperatures slightly below normal in both December and January. There are relative minima of 3.2 on 10th Dec and 2.7 on 30th Jan. In between there is a bit of a mild spike just before New Years with daily means near 5.5 for three days. Otherwise, the data look very close to long-term normals much of the time. That is not meant to be a prediction for this particular winter, just the observation that SOI is not much of a predictor of temperatures. I had a look at all years in the six-year cycle generated before the data became so scattered by the variable SOI period that they had no further predictive potential. Not very much shows up at all, really. Each year has a few subtle warm and cold spells relative to CET normals, but there are very few days in the whole data set more than 1.0 deg away from the long-term averages. What this tells me is that events in the tropical Pacific, while no doubt very significant as predictors of climate around the western hemisphere and far eastern hemisphere, may "peter out" by the time they begin to interact with circulations over Europe and the eastern Atlantic. I also note that the colder turns in the defined peak winter contain one of the weakest El Nino candidates, 1946-47 in the data set. If you eliminate that case, the colder periods that I mentioned lose a bit of their already subtle distinctions. However, a big caveat emptor at the end -- I have yet to tackle the problem of different types of El Nino and trying to assess which other cases (besides 2009-10) are "Modoki" types. That might yield a different story, but here's the full list of peak El Nino (Jan) years in the data set -- do you see very many cold winters here? I don't, but at the same time, not that many very mild ones either. 1878,1883,1889,1896,1900,1905,1912,1915,1919,1926,1931,1937,1941,1947,1953,1958,1966,1973,1977, 1983,1987,1992 (1994) 1998,2005,2010 (I did not insert 2013-14 data into the file as I wanted to have the numbers available for predictive evaluation of years 1 and 2 of the series). If anyone has any questions about temperatures in any part of the derived series, fire away.
  2. 5 likes
    however this winter turns out, we have a very good positive anomaly of eurasian snow cover-
  3. 4 likes
    MIA - I really can't understand what you are on about - take the report of hedge fund managers standing to make millions in the event of a Britex - this is quite feasible - it is quite likely that this people will speculate against a devaluing of the GBP in such an event just as George Soros did in September 1992 when the UK exited the ERM, pushing interest rates momentarily up to 15%, causing the Chancellor of the Exchequer to use up a proportion our currency reserves in a vain attempt to prop the pound up, caused a mini recession and a number of businesses to fold. The raison d'etre of speculators is first and foremost to make money, first and foremost and little regard to the short and long term effects of their actions - as far as they are concerned this is for somebody else to worry about. So as far as I can see the hedge fund managers will view a Britex as an opportunity for them to make money very likely at the expense of our own economy which is highly likely to lead to a devaluation* - where there are winners there has to be losers in this game. I do not see that pointing this out is as a negative campaign. *In my experience devaluations have never worked in this country because although they give the opportunity for greater exports the imports cost more as well meaning that there is no overall gain of any significance. I take it that when you are referring the 'baddies' you are referring to the shenanigans involving the selling of sub prime mortgages then selling these on in worthless parcels by people in the US causing eventually the global recession from which we are now only just emerging. As far as I am aware nobody has been convicted of offences in connection with these yet I consider their actions fraudulent, though I am not sure which people are in jail as a result of these actions. Not sure what you mean by 'EEC directives' but Juncker is intending for EU 'red tape' to be cut and takes the view that it is up to the individual states to control these matters with the EU only concerning themselves with matters which affect the EU as a whole. He also says that a Britex will damage both the EU and the UK (Yesterday's Times). I don't know of anything which supports what you have said in your 5th para and why shouldn't us pro EU people find things to disturb the march towards a Britex - we do not support this action and we is variously, it seems around 50%, of our population and they are not all left wing comments. In my view the agitation caused by those wanting to leave the EU has done nothing but harm to our country and will continue to do so. For a start it is causing a divide in the country and that was not really necessary. It causes uncertainty which is not good for investment, trade and business. I would argue that the energies of these people would have ben far better spent in an effort to reform the EU. We all know that it is not perfect and that there are many areas where work is needed to improve it. Lastly I would say that the EEC transformed into the EU quite some time ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVL7gLwzct0
  4. 3 likes
    Now this is one squally thunderstorm. Impact town: Fernvale, just 40 miles from central Brisbane, yesterday. Several houses lost their roofs. This is usually an active time for severe storms in the subtropics. Australia highly likely to record it's hottest October on record for mean maximum temperature. Presently, hundreds of weather sites across most states are registering a record. If realised this will beat the previous record set only last year. The anomaly in Victoria in particular this month has been staggering.
  5. 2 likes
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/who-won-prime-ministers-questions-6720217#ICID=sharebar_twitter Who won Prime Minister's Questions? Evasive Cameron slips up on tax credits Jeremy Corbyn used all six of his questions at PMQs to tackle David Cameron on tax credits. The PM came off second best
  6. 2 likes
    Oh, for God's sake! I'm sure that Nostradamus saw it all, many years before that! Anything from Doris Stokes?
  7. 2 likes
    Amazing how a graph can be interpreted in different ways.!! It looks to me as if whatever was causing the deficit to reduce, was released in every case before the country was ready. To be more specific it was released - 1) Too soon 2) with too much of a release of the forcing correcting the deficit. Out of the 4 cases depicted it shows how the Torys on 1990 went for growth and how this caused the deficit problem. But note that they rapidly turned it around until Labour took over and Brown gradually screwed it for the next 10 years ending with the catastrophic dustup in 2008!. Note that the Tories had already proved it was possible to turn it around quickly when they thought they needed too. Brown had his chance in 2004 to put it back correctly, but instead chose to 'invest' in social services inspite of his calls for prudence. - His downfall. . Compare this with Labour's other efforts - 1) in the early 1950's had to wait for the Tories to reverse the trend. 2) In the early 70's had to do the same. 3) as mentioned above the Brown era fell into the same trap. So no - it is not inevitable... It is not the same as the moon automatically follows the sun. Policy is what is causing these effects. What is required is a prolonged period of government which is prepared to tighten for as long as necessary and then when the brake is lifted it is done at a pace that the economy can support! Much the same a Germany did in the 1970 to 90 period. I am afraid it is not possible to have social benefits driving our economy as many on here seem to think. The other point of the graph which has been ignored is that each minima is lower than the previous. This indicates to me a basic negative forcing is also taking place. How about trying the loss of our industrial base as this forcing?. It is important because each time it will take longer and longer to claw our way back up to balance. As I say - it is amazing what an be inferred from graphs! MIA
  8. 2 likes
    Hi Roger Far more indepth than the 'test' I ran myself a couple of years ago but the end result very similar. What I saw through the 20th century was that there was no weighting for any winter type. It broke even for cold, mild and average over the 100 years so for me it wasn't a predictor for UK winter BFTP
  9. 1 like
    I saw this and snapped it through a car sunroof which made it much more visible than with the naked eye. Didn't realise it was that unusual but was on BBC news site today! Glad I saw it.
  10. 1 like
    Back to that age old question that I've never been able to find a convincing answer to - why in Europe (including the UK) do we insist on waiting until the end of March to put our clocks forward when we're happy not putting them back before the end of October when it's darker in the mornings? Does anyone understand the logic?
  11. 1 like
    So a few days ago we had a heated debate on the taxation of sanitary products. Well.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34638831 A move to debate the issue with other EU members was blocked by MPs by 305 votes to 287. This to be honest highlights a big factor in my view about the EU referendum. Politics is broken on all fronts. Sort our domestic politics first!!!
  12. 1 like
    I agree that our brains cannot understand nothingness; but, neither can they understand infinity...Not because neither exist but, rather, because evolution hasn't wired animal brains in that way? Why would it?
  13. 1 like
    You know, if an all out war materialises in the ME through this incessant obsession by Graham and McCain to get rid of Assad by military means only and not even attempting to resolve the issue by the use of dialogue and negotiation, then I hope that these two geriatric, warmongering fools are strapped to the first two missiles that America fires! http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2015/10/28/graham-to-military-leaders-syria-strategy-half-assed-at-best/?singlepage=true
  14. 1 like
    oh dear ,will send another van with some tea total Christian happy clappers then ....0
  15. 1 like
    80 Years Ago Edgar Cayce Predicted Putin’s Role in Stopping WW3. http://www.wakingtimes.com/2015/10/16/80-years-ago-edgar-cayce-predicted-putins-role-in-stopping-ww3/
  16. 1 like
  17. 1 like
    11 pound whisky :0 ,I used to run heavy plant on that !!.
  18. 1 like
    Sainsbury's has 11 pound whiskey and 18 pound gin
  19. 1 like
    Although, with current domestic omnishambles in full flow, I wouldn't be too hopeful?
  20. 1 like
    So we should forever increase our debt?
  21. 1 like
    That was me probably around age 15 Party at your place
  22. 1 like
    I'm sending a van and two Estonian Mafiosi to collect .....:0..
  23. 1 like
    thats because it's mine ....can I have it back please......
  24. 1 like
    Got 20 bottles of whiskey and 10 bottles of red wine in the house, but none of it is mine. Oh and a box of Bud and 15 Becks, but none of it is mine Oh and some brandy and gin, but none of it is mine.
  25. 1 like
    Remind me who's voting for unrestricted TTIP again? UKIP might be more right wing socially, but Tories are out on their own in the far right side of economic ideology.
  26. 1 like
    People do horrible things for a variety of reasons, some simply because they can. I think it is wishful thinking that there has to be a reason behind it. A lot of the things we do to eachother can also be seen in the animal world. Ever seen that footage of gorillas hunting down a monkey, sexually molesting it and then killing it for fun? I mean it all seems so hopeless to tell a family of someone who was brutally murdered for no good reason because the murderer simply could.
  27. 1 like
    Which does mean the Tories have got/had a lot of racists.
  28. 1 like
    More negative campaigning.!! How many of these people have been brought to court as a result of the EEC directives.? How many have been heavily fined by British (and more particular USA calling out the baddies)! Net impact of the EC directives - Zero, but people are in jail as a result of British and American actions. I've noticed that our French connection are the only people contributing on here at the moment. France is the only place that seem to be worried that there will be a BRexit in Europe (as evidenced by you guys). Nobody in Strasburg or other EEC countries are worried about it according to the latest press releases and yet our French connection are spending their efforts and time in finding anything to disturb the march to BRexit. Perhaps you should be addressing the European parliament and officials that the threat is a real one! Apparently no-one believes it is a real threat on the other side of the channel. That is the greatest threat of all! For gawds sake persuade them to negotiate and stop making stupid left wing comments all the time. It does not go down very well over here outside of blog forums! MIA
  29. 1 like
    The darkness never bothers me - I find it quite cosy. Anyway, we have had these wonderful things called light bulbs for the past 100 years. I know some people suffer from SAD which is a shame but in the modern world in which we live a bit of darkness for a few months of the year is hardly the worst thing in the world. If we were a tribe of hunter gatherers then I would be miffed - but we ain't.
  30. 1 like
    you are arguing the toss over a week before and two/three after, really worth a shift change?
  31. 1 like
    Caught one where I live in south London this afternoon too
  32. 1 like
    An interesting article from the Independent. Billionaire hedge fund managers who are backing the campaign to take Britain out of Europe stand to bank millions more pounds a year in the event of a so-called “Brexitâ€. Two of the five richest hedge fund billionaires in Britain are already linked to EU exit campaigns, and The Independent understands that other fund managers are planning to throw their weight behind the Out campaign in the coming months. Tough European rules made in the wake of the 2007 financial crisis would be under threat if hedge fund bosses helped to force the UK’s exit from the EU. Without the restrictions, hedge funds – which specialise in high-risk, short-term investments – would save about £250m a year, an analysis by this newspaper has calculated. Bonus rules which force hedge fund bosses to reduce the amount of cash they pocket and are designed to stamp out reckless trading would also be at risk if the UK left the EU.
  33. 1 like
    I am so upset,really thought 300ft snowdrifts were a dead cert. C.S Is that picture of Steve Murr on his winter vacation LOL C.S
  34. 1 like
    Greenland Is Melting Away ( nice article) http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/27/world/greenland-is-melting-away.html
  35. 1 like
    Good post knocker. Personally I agree with you on the history of Islamic extremism but I do think the actions of western governments in the last 20 years have contributed to geo-political instability that has enabled the likes of Isis to flourish and grow.
  36. 1 like
    It seems that owing your property and leaving it to loved ones once you've passed away is big no no for some. As for Nicks post on poverty I have to laugh because it's such a cliched word that's banded about by the liberal left as some sort of badge of honour. We simply don't have poverty per say in this country, yes we have poor people who struggle to pay their bills, I'm one of them by the way but poverty no. The whole debate on increasing taxes is the old labour chestnut of sharing someone else's wealth, it simply doesn't work and the majority of UK voters will vote out any political party who imposes such draconian measures, hence why no one trust the Labour Party more so with Comrade Corbyn at the helm.
  37. 1 like
    Good on the Lords! The House of Lords may be bloated, expensive and completely undemocratic - but it's done good here.
  38. 1 like
    Sorry that's irrelevant, at a time of so called austerity you don't dish out tax cuts for people that are inheriting over £325,000. I'm sure a lot of people would be happy to get anything close to inheriting that much money. Do you not see the moral vacuum in giving those a tax cut whilst at the same time plunging more people and especially children into poverty. Let me put this another way would you rather save 50,000 children from falling into poverty or give a tax cut to someone inheriting over £325,000? Because that's exactly the issue at hand and frankly I'd hope most Brits would vote to save those children. If not then really I just despair at whats happening in the UK.
  39. 1 like
    Very striking difference this year generally in the stratosphere compared to the same period last year,which shows up nicely at 30mb. 2014.. 2015.. PV looks to be late to the party this year.
  40. 1 like
    Asda is bringing its petrol down to 103.7 and diesel down to 106.7 they are also demanding George Osborne freezes fuel duty its understood Osborne wants a 1ppl rise on diesel in the wake of the VW emissions scandal
  41. 1 like
    As you say Fergie, regarding OLR. The 4th Kelvin wave has begun down welling in region ENSO 1.2. Hence the opening for a westerly wind burst pushing MJO into phase 2. MJO will most likely return to COD and emerge back into phases 5 or 6. El Niño is king driver until it's demise. The levels of thermal energy stored in the Pacific sink just shows how much it dictates global weather patterns.
  42. 1 like
    Caution with MJO assessment currently however... as UKMO note: "...MJO not having much predictive value at present. Models had been suggesting that it should be emerging into Phase 1 by now (and into Phase 2 subsequently), however confidence in this was always low due to contamination from tropical storms messing up the OLR assimilation."
  43. 1 like
    I don't think you could have anything more going on in the Pacific right now, this Nino winter is less than boring. Nor is it without many sub-plots. Re GWO now on downward tendency as MJO initiates. Studies show MJO waves to travel more quickly in ENSO years,, not without there impacts. Decent amplitude visible on the VP anomalies however, the speed of travel / degrade is of interest. Bonfire night sees progression move to circle of doom time will tell for it's depart and then re-appearance time frame, also the impacts much further up in the atmosphere provide intrigue. 2 tests of academia now - the MJO coupling and effects on Vortex Formation / Intensificaton , further to that the impact of the Strat Trop pathway vs the qQBO, lots to look out for this season...
  44. 1 like
    I think that judgement on the current IO MJO wave amplification and how far east this travels need to be watched carefully. We may see some over enthusiastic forecasts regarding stage 3, but the risk is that these may get dampened down as we get closer in timeframe - much like FI strat forecasts. If, and this is a big if, we see the MJO reach phase 3 in some kind of amplified state during November, then there is the possibility that this decoupling with the El Nino may have some ramifications regarding early December - an increase in wave 2 activity could occur leading to a greater meridional flow affecting the Atlantic sector. If the MJO wave gets overwhelmed by the strong EN, then a more traditional EN winter pattern may ensue. Certainly, an interesting few weeks watching the MJO coming up.
  45. 1 like
    Thank you - as always - for your thoughts Tamara. It's a shame solar activity has been so feeble over the past 6 months or so as high activity would have in theory mitigated the possible impact of the westerly QBO. I'll put the Indian Ocean SST forcing to one side for the time being (though I'm still going to check out those warm IO + El Nino analogues out of interest). I'm fascinated by the nature of this basin-wide El Nino and it's potential implications. The U.S. to Hawaii band of +ve SST anomalies is also setting my mind whirring. A basin-wide super El Nino with benefits? Alas, there's a particularly terrible side-effect of this event due to slam into the western coast of Mexico today; Category 5 hurricane Patricia with top sustained winds of 200 mph gusting to 245 mph. Yes, you read that right! Thoughts go out to those in the firing line - the NHC are making good use of the word 'catastrophic' this morning.
  46. 1 like
    prefer bacon and egg myself ...
  47. 1 like
    No. And even if a God does exist, he/she's a nasty, vindictive, spiteful piece of work.
  48. 1 like
    I know JB is a believer in a return to the fifties analogues where tropical forecasting is concerned - he's obviously giving 57/58 triple weighting in this analogue. I'm not sure I would even use it once, given it was the absolute maximum of the strongest solar cycle in our records.
  49. 1 like
    I think it shows sea ice variability can change rapidly from year to year. Antarctic sea ice is more seasonal then the Arctic however to a degree as the min extents rise year on year in the Antarctic that's becoming less marked. Perhaps 'finding' a human explanation on 10 year scales is pointless ?
  50. 1 like
    Here's a preliminary forecast for the winter, but I am continuing to look at some leads on a final forecast that I hope to publish around mid-November. It may be similar to this. I can also mention that I discussed this with "Blast from the Past" and he is of a similar opinion but also wanting to give things a later assessment. This post will simply give the forecast as we see it now, reasoning will be added to any final version. First of all, we expect November to be variable and average near normal for temperatures and precipitation. Expect a wide variety of weather types and one or two rather windy days but also a lot of anticylonic weather. December and some part of January (at least the first half) will probably be mild more often than cold, but with spells of anticyclonic weather bringing quiet perhaps foggy conditions, and somewhat colder temperatures interspersed with milder southwesterly flows and possibly one or two stormy periods. If these storms develop, they would likely be followed by several days of northerly flow, local hill snow and gradually moderating temperatures. Later in January and for some part of February, more significant blocking appears likely, and we think there may be a spell of significant and perhaps extreme cold. Snow would be more likely in the south and central counties with this set-up. This colder pattern is not likely to reverse itself quickly and it may just fade out through March. We will revisit this forecast in November and give a final version with some of the reasoning added. At this point, would just say that we feel the El Nino will not overwhelm the closer and therefore more significant cold Atlantic signal. However, we don't think that it will completely fail to interact with the Atlantic and European patterns, which is the main reason for thinking there could be perhaps one or even two significant windstorms as there were in Dec 1997. Watch for an update in mid-November.
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