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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 17TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack and showery Westerly airflow will cover the UK today and tomorrow with a ridge of High pressure approaching the West of the UK later tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely in the form of scattered showers. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a ridge of High pressure approaching Western Britain over the coming days changing the orientation of the Jet Stream from South of the UK to the North for a while.Then a new trough slips it back South across the UK for a time but overall though details are sketchy the flow looks like remaining more to the North of the UK over week 2 probably enhancing the theme of dry weather across the South of the UK at least. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge of High pressure settling things down across the UK at this weekend before a trough returns cloud and some rain for a time early next week. This is then shown to be the precursor to a more North/South split in the weather with the North seeing breezy and changeable weather next week while the South becomes largely dry and fine under a ridge from the SW. This ridge is then shown to intensify exerting it's influence to all other areas with fine and dry weather with mist and fog at night. Then the theme at the end of the run is to push this ridge to the East of the UK where it draws some rather warm air NW over the UK while maintaining fine and dry weather for most. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is nothink like as High pressure based as the operational bringing down Low pressure across the UK next week where it hangs on across the South for quite a while gradually being reinforced from the Atlantic by other weakish Low pressure ensuring that after a dry weekend the rest of the run looks changeable with some dry and bright weather mixed with cloudier and more unsettled periods with rain or showers at times, probably most enhanced towards the South than elsewhere . THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show no set pattern likely by two weeks with equal options shown between Low pressure based conditions with showers or rain and rather drier weather under higher pressure. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a High pressure ridge at the weekend collapsing as shallow Low pressure slips SE across the UK in the first days of next week. After a dry weekend some rain on a trough will introduce a showery period next week but with light winds and some sunshine in between daytime conditions shouldn't feel too bad with mist and fog though a probability under any clearing skies after dark. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex troughs slipping down across the UK on the Western flank of yesterdays depression introducing a simplified weather pattern of a ridge moving across the UK from the West with a dry and fine weekend before further troughs approach the West by Monday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows a fine weekend as a ridge moves across from the West. This is shown to collapse early next week as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK with some rain or showers for all. Later in the week the Low responsible is reluctant to leave our near continental neighbours and continues to exert a showery influence to the South and East with the best weather likely over Scotland and Northern Ireland as another ridge builds in. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the weekend ridge giving way to a trough early next week with some rain for all before another ridge links across Central parts of the UK with the South slowly becoming dry and fine while fronts on Westerly winds over the far North bring the risk of rain at times here later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the theme of Low pressure moving SE across the UK early next week with two or three days of changeable conditions with some rain or showers for most before a trend for things to quieten down slowly later in the period culminating in a very pleasant picture by Day 10 as High pressure builds across England and Wales with dry and fine early Autumn conditions for many with the whole of the UK likely to be dry at that stage. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates to me that there is a good chance of High pressure lying close to England and Wales with a lot of fine and dry early Autumn weather here while any fronts from off the Atlantic become restricted to affecting the far North only by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are still undecided on whether next week's slip back under Low pressure is just a short blip before fine and settled weather returns to most of the UK thereafter or not. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ties with UKMO at 99.4 pts each with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.5 pts with UKMO at 96.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is king at 86.3 pts followed by UKMO at 86.2 and GFS at 84.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.0 pts to 33.5 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There are tentative signs that the UK may come more under the influence of High pressure later next week. It is yet to be decided in what shape or form that may take as only ECM offers a UK based anticyclone across our shores and this is shown at Day 10 so a lot of scope for error in that chart. The genral theme though is slowly straightening out as yesterday's Low has now made it's exit East and NE away from the UK. A strong ridge looks like producing a decent weekend for most if not all as the last of the coming few day's of showers finally clear the East late tomorrow. It then looks like 48hrs of decent fine and settled early Autumn weather with some chilly and misty nights is likely before a trough moves in from the West late Sunday and more significantly on Monday. This then brings rain followed by a scattering of showers as weakish Low pressure slips SE across the UK towards NW Europe. Once arriving there some output shows that it gets held up later next week and continues to affect the South and East with further showers while other output shows it clearing away and the South coming under a ridge while the North becomes at greatest risk of a little rain from troughs crossing close by to the North. Whichever way the dice falls High pressure should play some sort of role in what happens through Week 2. I particularly like the ECM evolutions as it shows a full scale move towards High pressure sitting across the UK in the second week and this is largely backed up by it's ensembles. It's harder to see where UKMO is heading but my betting would be similar to ECM. GFS shows a decent operational while the control is less favourable with the clusters a complete mess this morning so not much useful guidance there. So putting all this together while I cannot see a prolonged dry spell UK wide, certainly not in the short term I think with time many places will see much more dry weather than wet and some pleasant sunshine by day could lead to chilly and very misty nights at times, slow to clear in the morning's draggng the overall mean temperature down to probably just below the seasonal average for mid to late September. Still with no major atlantic storms looking likely across the UK over the next two weeks I think most perople will accept this morning's output with open arms because it could be an awful lot worse. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif The best chart of the day today goes to ECM with a peach of a 240hr chart showing High pressure in excess of 1030mbs lying across England and Wales with fine and dry early Autumn weather for most if not all of the UK. WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0 For the worst chart I have gone for the Day 15 chart from the GFS Control run which illustrates aLow mobving in across the UK from the West bringing rain and showers for all. What's significant with this chart is that pressure is High across the Arctic stretching from Scandinavia to Greenland pushing all rain bearing Atlantic Lows and fronts on a collision course with the UK. Thankfully it is 15 days away and unlikely to verify. Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 18th 2015

If only it was ....... S

I was plotting some monthly data, and I came up with the plots of ECM32, from the end of August (Run 20 days ago). The purpose was to test how well it verifies with current obs. The ECM32 Control run was actually very decent in its forecast. It forecasted a wave-2ish look, with a high over Asia and North America, and it got surprisingly close to the vortex minimal geopotential height and also the maximum of 314 over North America. Temperature wise, it was also extremely good for this forecast period, with getting the max/min temp very close if not the same, and generally saw the warmer area of Pacific and Asia. Its forecast further on is for a not so defined vortex. Similar as was the ECM32 ENS mean. it could be just some model bias, or the natural tendency toward climatology. Another forecasting system I am testing, is the CMA monthly forecast, but it has a bias of developing a too strong vortex on heights and not cold enough.. There are also other monthly forecasts I will try to plot, but the data usually gets out with a 10-20 day delay. That is reasonable since we are talking about data which is usually not for free, being available for free under the S2S project. But since some forecasts got to 30 or 60 days, I will be able to get some forecasting power out of it. The fact of the matter is, that if we compare the current model situation with the one about 2 or 3 years ago, its simply phenomenal how much more modelling is now available for the stratosphere, since we only had GFS then and ECM to 240h from berlin. Or actually, the data was there all along, we (I) just wasn't able to plot it yet. But times have changed and my quest to improve stratospheric modelling or at least promote it, is in full swing. I was (and still very much am) really trying to pioneer the modelling and visualisation of the stratosphere, since I do believe that it is being very neglected in this aspect, when compared to its actual potential/importance.

Cool surface air for the time of year too..

I've a hunch we will not hear from the OPI team this october but having read their full workings, in the original pdf, I would guess the figure would be off the negative scale if charts like the one below were the order of the day when October arrives.

Well there is no doubt that the weather seems exciting this Evening but I think this is taking too far with these cumulus. Sorry I had to share this haha, took this off my iphone

Please connect your charger... .....October...

Grouping the GEFS into clusters of ensemble members suggests that we're finally seeing a majority vote emerge with respect to whether LP slides down across the UK early next week. That's what 35% of the runs look like. With the 1008 mb contour encompassing much of the UK it looks like a well defined low, but not a very deep one. Possible frontal rain followed by diurnal showers for 1-3 days depending on how the low moves about. 20% of the runs look like this, suggesting a deeper low that would probably tend to keep the UK unsettled or at least changeable for a day or two longer. 15% of the runs make little of the potential slider, with a day or two of slow moving showers before it most likely settles down either from the east or the southwest. Looking further ahead, the cluster analysis for Friday has a large Atlantic low in control bringing unsettled westerlies (most so for the north) on 25% of the runs, but a whole 60% of the runs have high pressure ridging in from the Azores with unsettled conditions restricted to Scotland and a trend to settle things down further through the weekend. The remaining 15% have already built high pressure in by Friday. Amazingly, the weekend starts of settled and dry for all but the far northwest on 85% of the runs, and becomes settled for the whole of the UK by Sunday on 100% of the runs. Yes, every single one of them!

Met Office meteorologists said conditions could mirror those of the 2009/2010 winter which was so long and chilly it was dubbed ‘The Big Freeze.’ Have they actually said this anyone? think I will drop this in an e mail and see what response I get!

Indeed not a bad outlook if today's outputs are anything to go by. We have another 24/36hrs of showers here and there before a decent weekend is promised for much of the UK as pressre builds from an Azores ridge. However this is shunted aside by Monday as Atlantic fronts move east.This from the GFS06z run. This doesn't appear to herald any prolonged breakdown as later next week both ECM and GFS mean charts are looking at a more pronounced build of pressure across NW Europe and day 10 looks like this. so the Autumnal jet not yet into full gear with the Atlantic trough easing back from the UK. A possible mainly dry and pleasant end to the month could well be on the cards.

There have been four tornadoes in the last week, first one with full report and video. http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/faits-marquants/2015/tornade-saint-bonnet-sur-gironde-13-septembre-2015-poitou-charentes-mirambeau-outbreak.html Pictures of the one on the 16th http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2015/septembre/tornade-charente-maritime-sennac-matha-chaniers-migron-16-septembre-2015.html

There's a word for people who consistently deny the existence of evidence that goes against their beliefs... Sea ice in the 80s being a high point? Lets see who's suddenly an expert on proxy data and willing to selectively dismiss proxy records! As for the use of the word recovery, in this thread alone it's been used by 4wd, Keith and Stew, each multiple times. I wonder just how many more references to recovery would be found by AGW "sceptics" elsewhere on this forum? As far as I can remember, I've always called for the first ice free conditions to occur in the 2020s. And numerous times I've explained to people that the consensus position has never been for ice free conditions early this century, but closer to the middle. But in the minds of some, only "warmists" used the term "recovery", and "warmists" never disagreed with Wadhams... what can you do when evidence matters nowt!?

I found an archive of monthly N Atlantic SST anomalies on the Icelandic Met site: gives a nicely detailed picture rather than the broad brush charts we have looked at so far. Some have commented on the similarity between this year and 2009 - an August comparison for both years below. 2015 2009

And this, which is a good deal closer to the reliable timeframe, doesn't look cool at all.

The recovery begins

Just noticed this: https://reanalyses.org/atmosphere/overview-current-reanalyses#TWENT Want to know what the weather was like on Christmas Day 1851? Knock yourselves out: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl You'll need to click the Version radio button and set it to 20CRV2c.

Surprised that nobody has posted the following link a few days ago: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11864067/Britain-braced-for-long-snowy-winter-as-strongest-El-Nino-since-1950-expected.html Yes, the Telegraph, which has been going remorselessly downhill and down-market for a couple of years has obviously decided that there is no reason to leave ludicrous weather prediction stories to the Express, especially when it sells a lot of copy. The article is a million miles away from justifying the headline and I note that on the web-page, no comments are allowed! The closest it gets to justifying the prediction of a cold winter is (my emphasis): "“The latest indication suggests [El Nino] may be starting to move westwards and cooling near the South American coast,†said Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Channel. "This is then called a Modiki type El Nino with warm sea surface temperatures in the mid Pacific. “If that happens then the impact may shift the jet stream and give us a greater risk of a colder negative North Atlantic Oscillation this winter, which usually brings us colder winters.†So, er, El Nino MAY shift and IF it does so, it MAY shift the jet stream this USUALLY gives us colder winters. Even then, a "colder winter" does not equal long snowy winter!!! So, if on if on if and then a leap to long and snowy winter. And note that the Met Office won't even go that far, simply saying that the effect, if any, on UK weather, is "unclear". Re the Express and this kind of coverage generally: presumably one year, it will actually be correct in the way that a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day - and then they will be crowing about it, conveniently forgetting that every previous time they ran the story, it was wrong. Not quite clear whether or when the apologies for totally erroneous news stories are featured. I wish the media would grow up - but instead the Express infection is spreading.

I agree that the UKMO model is not screaming 1947 or 1963 - I'm not sure any of these models would ever pick up an event like that ahead of time though? Anyone got any thoughts on that as I've always found it quite interesting wondering whether the models of today could pick up on a winter like that ahead of time. On the face of it looking at 2m and 850 temps, it's not even saying cold - more average with a bias to cold just west of the UK. The surface pressure charts do hint at higher than normal pressure around Iceland though and there are a few similarities in the Atlantic SST anomalies to 2009 (also some differences too). Other factors like the QBO (not checked this to be certain) and solar activity are likely quite different and the winter El Nino may be stronger this year - perhaps more east based too. Plenty more of this to come over the next few months as we build up to the winter season - we've still got the OPI to reel out in due course (which failed miserably last year). I've tried to follow the seasonal models in the past, but it's become clear with a bit of experience that they are really pretty useless. Basically no one has a clue at this stage and for the UK at least - predicting the winter coming is probably impossible. Bastxrdi has analogue years (probably based more on the pacific) of 1958,2003,2009 - which if you put into the NCEP composites shows a strong bias for much colder than normal to our East - with the UK slightly below average. The problem is, even if those composites turn out close to the mark, if the Atlantic energy is just slightly stronger than previous years, we'd end up quite mild - alternatively if it's a bit weaker we could be noticeably cold. Sometimes, I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster as the UK weather is always on such a knife edge. The Express which is pushing the Madden nonsense has done this for the last 3 years consecutively predicting a severe winter. I suppose if they keep at it, even a stuck clock is right twice a day.

Interitus.. I am not aware of anyone on here who called it a RECOVERY (apart from one or two people on the warmists side, who have termed it that ) . I and most other 'deniers' have called the last 5 years of ice volume growth an interesting new development, which may or may not lead to a recovery. In spite of the reduction of the thick ice in the Pacific side (which does concern me somewhat) the volume of ice this year does appear to have grown slightly. I believe the conditions were perfect for ice removal in the Pacific (according to GW!) If this is true, then something different is occuring in the Arctic (since volume had previously reduced in 95% of the years before that). If this winter season turns out colder again in Siberia (hasn't happened for the last 5 years) then a new situation in the Arctic could well establish itself. I am prepared to wait and see. My take is lets all wait and see what is actually unfolding. No denier claimed this year would see a recovery in extent. I for one have got the actual ice extent almost spot on for the third year on the trot (last year I was 200K out), so I called the reduction in extent correctly after 2 years of increases.. How many of the rest of you warmers can claim this?. My original note on this subject was to disagree with the callers of an absolutely disastrous ice season. It has not been great, but it has not been as bad as many on here made it out to be. MIA

My wife took this picture of a fall streak hole today over East Sussex. Just thought you lot may like to see it! More about them here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallstreak_hole

certainly a nice pilus belendus :0...

Nice cumulus testiculous there, Stormyking. Lightning detected around here. Can't see much outside, very overcast and heavy bursts of rain now and then.

More like phallonimbus.

The GEFS and ecm anomalies are both still looking at the change around Friday with the trough in the eastern Atlantic withdrawing and realigning south of Greenland and heights building in the eastern Atlantic. This looks set to remain until the end of the extended period. Could give a period of pleasant weather with temps above average. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

been as the blues are appearing!.....sorry mods feel free to move if necessary

September 16, 2015 | The National Snow and Ice Data Center announced yesterday that sea ice in the Arctic had dwindled to the fourth lowest extent since satellites began capturing images of the area in 1979. All nine of the lowest sea ice extents have occurred in the last nine years, according to the NSIDC. News of another lean year for end-of-summer sea ice has people wondering anew just how long we have left before Arctic Septembers become ice free. NCAR climate modelers Marika Holland and David Bailey took a crack at answering that question a few years ago, and their results are illustrated in the animation above. Created by Tim Scheitlin of NCAR's Visualization Lab, the video shows that all the ice could disappear in some Septembers as early as mid-century if human-caused climate change continues unabated. https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/17013/shrinking-sea-ice-modeling-arctics-future

Yes Steve that did spring to mind!

Cool..

I, for one, can't imagine why a company that makes its money from encouraging people to switch energy suppliers is hyping the idea of a cold winter.

Looking at the GEFS upgrade and the ecm anomalies for 00z isn't all bad news. The trough next week isn't digging as far south as previously forecast and straight after that they are both looking at height rises over the UK and to the west with the Scandinavian block no more. Fingers crossed Charts courtesy weatherbell

That's what annoys me about damn tabloids. They always take stuff out of context. Just because something is 'possibly associated' with contributing to condition x, doesn't mean it will automatically happen. That said, would love another smowmageddon!

Looks like a few place got a grass frost yesterday. http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp Claremorris, Mullingar, Mt Dillon and Markree Castle all saw grass temps below 0C.

PM.. Thanks for this response , possibly a bit more balanced than mine. If someone had come out and said that some scientists believed it would not happen until 2030 - 2040 as your report shows, then it would have been more balanced, but no one informed the gutter press (As Ed calls them), and so the monster has grown. Its no use blaming the gutter press. The media did not make this up. Scientist(s) called it, and many people just jumped on the political bandwaggon in order to make their own theories and desires more urgent. As I say, even now many on here are forecasting the imminent demise of the ice in the next few years. Good for them if it happens.... but should not expect not to get criticised for their motives, if it doesn't.... Just because they are called climate scientists does not mean they are correct or not capable of making errors. We have already seen a handful displaying woeful scientific techniques, (see above - in the case of Wadhams ( (vis - no error for the statistical calculations was stressed). The next few years could see even more if the ice survives the El Nino reasonably intact. I am a believer in the theory of CO2 warming, but for some to pretend that the science is fully understood and is implemented correctly in the models is an act of folly, and almost religious belief. Another 10 years is required (at least) for it to be sorted out. . MIA

Unfortunately we just don't know if the 1980s was abnormally high for summer ice as we don't have accurate records before then. Its easy to compare it to 1980s and say its poor, I think in the next 20/30 years we will have a better idea. Lets hope we get some good volume growth outside of the the main basin.

Yes pm, these are the type of charts I look forward to seeing as we go further into autumn, on the other hand, I really liked the strongly anticyclonic gefs 00z control run but once we are into october i'm looking for the first polar maritime blast

A new post, but a different topic. A general comparison between the old and new GEFS. I intentionally made the color scale range of only 15K, to better show dynamics. And the actual grid, which is in this case the same, at 1°. but it is really obvious from the very start, just how much more dynamics the new GEFS has. Looks quite superb stuff. And the vortex itself. And this is the GFS grid, which is so fine, that its hard to tell which one is interpolated and which one shows the actual grid points. The one without contours (second) shows the actual grid points. Compared with the interpolated low resolution grid from InstantWeatherMaps. As far as the stratosphere goes, we have some decent modelling power this year to work with. Especially cool is the GEFS upgrade, with the new GEFS now having the model top at 0.2mb, up from 2mb. its new configuration makes it the best free ensemble forecasting system for strat. One whole logarithmic scale model top increase, makes a big difference, together with improved resolution and up-to-date physics. Personally, this season I will/can plot strat data from GFS, GEFS, JMA GCM, FIM9, NAVGEM, NAEFS, some monthly ens, and occasionally perhaps some from ECM ens. And some CFS or something like that. Cheers.

Found this comment from Thomas Shafernaker - http://www.techtimes.com/articles/84723/20150915/strong-el-ni%C3%B1o-could-bring-another-big-freeze-winter-to-the-u-k.htm - which no doubt some of the press have subsequently put 2+2=5 - deciding that just because el nino might have helped intensify the winter of 2009/10 (i.e. by increasing moisture levels in the atmosphere & the southern branch of the jet) - then every el nino must obviously mean a repeat of 1962 etc - despite the fact that atlantic sea temps and other factors have a greater bearing on what matters here - i.e. northern blocking. Poor journalism - but that's symptomatic of almost everything output by the MSM these days - IMHO anyway. "This time round El Niño could be the strongest in decades," says Met Office meteorologist Thomas Shafernaker. "In Europe sometimes winters end up much colder and drier and last much into spring" with a strong El Niño, he explains. "In 2010, the El Niño played a part in bringing huge amounts of snow to the U.K."

Overnight low of 7.6C, nice..

Tsunami warnings have been issued for Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Hawaii after a powerful earthquake measuring 8.3. The quake's epicentre was located 144 miles northwest of Chile's capital Santiago. http://news.sky.com/story/1553972/tsunami-warnings-issued-after-major-earthquake

Appears to me that all the usual "weather singularities" seem to have been jumbled or even missing. I was comparing wetterzentral's Top Karten from the 1960s and now and nowadays the atmosphere over the North Atlantic appears to be highly turbulent. Of course I know the Top Karten from the Sixties are "re-sampled" from physical charts so obviously can't have the fine detail of contemporary model output.

Anyone still watching the radar and hoping for UK sferics should check out this chart:

Doh need better glasses

Yes, we really need Star Trek stasis

I haven't looked through the past few of posts but for me that time I dread is nigh - one word SAD SAD isn't something "to snap out of" - it's a neurological illness with serious physical symptoms. Given the "summer" we've just endured I'm doubly concerned over the next few months.

Same here, dry and mainly sunny and feeling pleasantly warm but more satisfying still was knowing that much of the country as getting soaked while we were unusually coming out best. One weather event I'm glad we missed out on.

ECM (1st image) and UKMO (2nd image) have been reluctant to develop the potential sliding low for early next week... until now. As often seems to happen, GFS has at the same time backed off a bit since yesterday's highly convective 12z operational run. The UKMO offering looks ripe for some unusually strong home-grown convection for the time of year, as a substantial wedge of cold air circulates overhead and allows for large lapse rates once the surface warms up each morning. ECM is more restrained in that respect, but still cold enough at the 850 hPa level to suggest some feisty daytime showers with hail and thunder on the cards. The low locates itself just SE of the UK for the following day, but remains in control across most of the southern half of the UK, with the low 850's maintained there. Looking further ahead, GFS wants to ramp up the Atlantic jet and set up a SW-NE jet stream alignment well northwest of the UK, but from the looks of ECM's +168 chart, that model is looking to keep the jet aligned between W-E and NW-SE, just as it did in its 00z operational run. In fact, +192 has just rolled out and confirms my suspicions with the jet diving southeast from the Atlantic - could be a soggy end to the run?

Lovely day ,20 c and sun ..

The ones you posted are probability charts - there are also ensemble mean charts, from which the images above have been taken. Link for all the seasonal products below. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

400,000 volts ??