Jump to content


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 31/05/15 in all areas

  1. 7 points
    PM... I said 'Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings.' I standby that statement and am certainly not getting carried away in making it....it's all about opinions and that's mine. Let's see what the 06 brings, but imo it won't be a million miles from it's 00 counterpart.
  2. 7 points
    Agree with this BA, but in all honesty that would probably be a given going into June considering just how cold it's been and still is.....it's hardly anything worthy of major celebration imo. Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings. As CS has just said the Jet does look likely to me much stronger than expected, so imo all bets are off once again (despite my optimism yesterday), with warmer but still inherently unsettled just not floating my particular boat.
  3. 7 points
    The only thing banked is that it will get warmer. It will. also, there will be a build in euro heights. There will. Also that we will find ourselves in the action zone between the heights to our ese and any Atlantic troughing which could be courtesy of an Iberian trough (in which case it will be v humid and hot). the models are simply paying out alternative solution as the time ticks down and they get a lead on disturbances which were not able to be picked up by the higher res of the ens. that always happens. the ops may well prove to be wrong at a 6/7 days anyway. I'm just going to be happy to be out without a jacket on (if it's dry of course)
  4. 5 points
    Of course, and this was what had installed confidence; op & control on same page etc And as you say 'big changes' are now being indicated here is yesterdays 12z temp anom & its 0z counterpart / ecm det. days 6-10 / charts WeatherBell. That is quite the difference - and its ensemble mean, tho not showing such a contrast, has surprisingly backtracked in the space of 12 hours with a notable trend to shunt everything further east. GEFS/GFS has not had to alter its charts much.... rather consistent. A poor display from the ECM the last few days, lets not try and sugarcoat it. And speaking of GFS, the 6z is suggesting Fridays expected heat now appears suspect.... the way the models are moving we will be lucky if we get a day.
  5. 5 points
    What this flags to me, is the mediocrity of the ECM as early as day 6.....which is thoroughly disappointing! as well as its ensembles. GFS picked up the idea that this would not be a spell, and merely a day or two. And its ens really were reluctant to ever back a hot spell... the latest GEFS shows some of us with a neg temp anom into days 0-16..... nothing notable on this update. Underwhelming, given the hype shown by some and the ECM.
  6. 5 points
    It seems like winter but in reverse. First we see stella charts on edges of FI and then they get watered down overnight as we get nearer. BFTP
  7. 5 points
    Day 5 charts ECM UKMO GFS GEM Not exactly oozing confidence even in the near reliable time frame. Some of the runs still deliver 30C potentially, on the other hand some runs would probably keep the maximum temperature of 25C set in April for the next week or so. Who knows but it seems that the models failed to pick up the strong jet coming off the eastern seaboard resulting in the flatter pattern now predicted.
  8. 4 points
    I can see this going one of two ways either it won't happen at all and we'll all be in the NSC moaning or it will happen but in the usual areas and the members that usually miss out will miss out.
  9. 4 points
    The 06z is unreal...3000 CAPE with LI of -9 across the SE quarter (I have not checked every single model update but that is a striking upgrade from 3-4 days ago...usually it goes the other way round) What strikes me even more is the contrast in airmass between the Spanish plume and what is diving out of Greenland behind it...whether eastward shift continues or not, somewhere across Europe are going to be some phenomenally powerful and violent thunderstorms based on those charts. It is not that common to have models indicating such contrasting air masses over the UK or the NW Europe generally, but adding the active jet into the mix we have a real possibility of supercells, or, even if not supercells in the text book sense, strong severe thunderstorms. An active cold front sweeping through could of itself introducing the potential for intense squalls, if the convection initiated action is limited. While premature, I'm inclined to maybe cheekily ask for next Friday off just in case something does materialise...the train strike may give me added excuse!!
  10. 4 points
    You cannot deny that the models have undergone a big downgrade and it isn't just one run. 2 days ago a high pressure was forecast to be centred over Scotland next Saturday, now it's a low pressure, so unless you are a lover of miserable summer weather that's a downgrade! Long term things could still come together and the blip next weekend just a longer way if getting to the outcome we want. The MetO is still confident of a good June so that's enough to keep the dream alive. Meanwhile back in Cumbria (aka North East Iceland) it's another day of wind, rain and temperatures WELL below average. Andy
  11. 4 points
    It is not one run though, the output has been getting worse with each run - the heat which was showing for here has completely vanished. Even the Metoffice have downgraded my temperatures for next Thursday for example. (Also mentions rain moving in later that day) The UK is one of the worst places to live if you are a weather enthusiast, always the last stop for any hot or cold weather - Mushy is spot on with his post, it is always the same no matter the season. I am sure we will still see some pleasant days here and a couple of hot days in the South though but I was really looking forward to seeing the kind of weather/temperatures that charts showed a couple of days ago and that all the other output was suggesting.
  12. 4 points
    ha... didnt we have a similar scenario last year or earlier?... im sure a promised, supported, consistently expected hot spell was downgraded to a 12 hour wonder. thats the problem with rapid pressure build...they dont last or appear not to last as the mobile atmosphere that allows them to build is also responsible for their lack of longevity. no real point in viewing the ops from next sunday onwards, they are an inconsistent mess! but the anoms knocker posted will give the best indication as to what lies in store.... and they look warm but unsettled, with high to our east, upper low to our southwest. so the 'best start to june since 1975' (my quote) looks like being another dud. pity, id prefer early heat. never mind...its only weather.
  13. 4 points
    Next weekend looks a scorcher, loving these Ecm 12z charts, I think low 30's celsius next weekend across southern uk and a risk of T-Storms breaking out, then the Azores high set to build in again. After weeks of cool unsettled dross, I'm really excited by the potential later next week onwards
  14. 3 points
    Well we still hit the low 80s on the 06z GFS #Strawclutch
  15. 3 points
    Even Friday's heat vanishing completely now, this is such a joke after the decent April, still not reached 20c here this year! and every weekend has had the exact same weather pattern, cool 11-14c Saturday, weather front Sunday grey till 6pm.
  16. 3 points
    Re the AMO that has been known and anticipated for many years. Joe B'stardi has been one meteorologist beating that drum for example for years so nice to see other studies. Re hottest years ever....since 1910...that says enough. More heatwaves....lets see how this hugely anticipated on next weekend plays out....looking a heat 'snap' at best currently BFTP
  17. 3 points
    Not sure they will be too many post this morning given the latest GFS and ECM runs, no doubt most will hold fire until this evening in the hope they prove to be nothing more than an extended bad dream, though some may re-emerge after the 06 if it looks better.... I think the one thing they do say is never assume anything in this game!
  18. 2 points
    ADS extent now lowest on record by over 300k. Latest ECM shows no big cool down, but the (relative) warmth moving from Beaufort across to the East Siberian Sea and Laptev. Baffin and Hudson Bay also look like warming up during the next week. However, some years saw their melt rate really take off during early June, so while it's likely that we'll still be lowest on record this time next week, the gap will probably be much smaller. The NSIDC extent often shows a big drop on the first of June, most likely as the algorithm for detecting melt ponding and the regional land masks are altered. The average drop from May 31st to June 1st over the whole record is about 136k, so keep that in mind.
  19. 2 points
    Regarding the ECM - I've been following the EPSgrams for Reading and they have been consistently at the top of the envelope. We should have been able to be more confident as the control and deterministic were on the same page mostly but with that level of spread, there was always room for big changes.
  20. 2 points
    Some hideous charts on offer this morning after the dreamy ones of the last few days. Quite typical really, it was all too far out to verify as shown. Still quite a lot of time to go, however, I'm sure a warm up will occur with this vile NW pattern gone for some time.
  21. 2 points
    Who's celebrating? The Models show a steady transient to warmer weather, Nothing 'disappointing at best' or 'downright awful'. Very sweeping statements there, Let's not get carried away in the moment reg 1 run.
  22. 2 points
    mmm, is it a one day wonder, ECM and GFS showing Friday as the only hot day, back to our usual Atlantic winds and low pressure by saturday, infact may not even reach 20C on Sat
  23. 2 points
    The ECM mean does look good. Lots of very warm/humid/thundery conditions on offer with these sort of charts.
  24. 2 points
    SWS, I take it the 18z looked like this, words fail me again. Biggest temperature flip-flop I've ever seen (previous chart posted second): Dr(S)No: Really sorry to hear this. Quacks can be more bother than help at times. Fingers crossed for all of you. I worry about my kids over small, silly things so I can't even begin to imagine what you go through all of the time. I'll be thinking about you
  25. 2 points
    Hi folks... It never rains but it pours.....and unfortunately I'm not talking about the weather. Young Dr(s)No went in for scopes today before we go to a hospital down south for specialist help on his condition. Although initially they've gone well ...he's ended up with really bad bleeding and,to cap it off, he's ended up being sick( first time in months!!) and it looks as though the scope may have flared up his gut!! Unbelievable!! Now looks like he may not be able to go to the specialist after all and a postponement looks odds on.. Apologies for the non weather related post....but hey , it's good to talk If you you can spare a thought for the wee man it would be much appreciated. Cheers DR(S) NO
  • Newsletter

    Want to keep up to date with all our latest news and information?

    Sign Up