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Hello guys, first let me introduce myself, I am this twenty-something catalan boy from Barcelona who grew up wishing for white christmas (in all earnest I have never experienced one but we were close in 2006 :/ ). Anyway, I already got to see my city blanketed a few times as winters have grown slightly colder compared to the nineties. Nothing you cannot relate to in the BIsles, surprisingly enough Iberia and Britain are really close when it comes to weather patterns, e.g. March 2013 was the coldest here since 1962 -and I was in Edinburgh btw- in the UK and at the same time it was exceedengly rainy in the whole of Spain. In Barcelona the serious snow happened in...8th march 2010. Heaviest snow since January 1985. Because that day I was in a city in the outskirts at 900ft, I saw accumulations of up to 20cm and snow fell between 0º and -2.5º since 11am till 7pm(very unusual and weird timing too, clearly it was a proper cold air ´bubble´). Down by the beach of Barcelona there were around 2-5cm but temps barely dipped below zero and you could tell the difference. However, the whole metropolitan area collapsed around 4pm, people stuck in trains for hours in the middle of nowhere...The intensity felt for a time as if it were a summer storm (very common, several each season with a peak in sept-oct), the likes of which I have yet to see in Britain. Only that it was terrifying, joyful snow. To cut it short, as soon as it stopped snowing and the temperature slowly rose above 0 in the metro area, most of the snow melted overnight and definitely by morning. I believe the max temp next day was a "cold" 7º. And then after that the glorious winter of 2013 happened. December was ok, had like 3-4 days of snow and several air frosts, January was increasingly good with a few good snowfalls that unfortunately in the 'hole' where Edinburgh is would never stay for longer than a few hours at best, however as soon as you got to the outer hills there were 25cm easy and it did stay in Arthur's Seat, though I only measured 13cm up there. February was a bit of a bore, though we did get some sleet and snow, too...and then another blessed March, this one even more lenghtly so. Best bit is, it started off rather mild, and there was a touch of spring in the air, some leaves seemed to blossom, as did flowers on the Meadows. Up in the hills most of the snow melted but there were still some visible patches. Suddenly I (and possibly you) started to see those charts, those astonishing charts. I'd never believed I would experience -15º at 850hpa in the Far West -of Eurasia ha ha. Poor trees and daffofils did have their spring hopes postponed for a good three weeks, snow lain on the ground of town for a couple of days, longer the further up (Brunstfield, Marchmont, Oxgangs) and on top of Arthur's Seat till 4th April, which is nothing but a (beautiful) coastal marginal hill of 250m. Snow stayed probably a week or two longer in the hills, shamefully I never went back after the melt, they were not as alluring and they'd become a huge puddle! Apologies for the rant and thank you very much if you have made it down here. I am hopeful this winter will be a cold one, hopes being based on snow extend and a little hunch haha. I am happy today as it is the first day that the 0º 850hpa has visited the Isles properly and the chill in the air after Gonzalo confirms it! Winter most definitely is coming. Enjoy your evening! PS Attached there might be a photo of today's cold snap at 15.30BST showing the cold air 'tongue' descending NW over the Continent via British Isles, and thus giving birth to heavy showers in the Lancashire-Midlands corridor. And they are pretty freaky too, can tell you, I am writing from Manchester by the way! It is a pleasure to meet you (all), sorry I've been reading you for a good two years but I am a bit shy and don't think I can contribute with much more knowledge as some people here are amazing and teach me a lot. But I do hope you enjoy the little anecdotes

Evening guys, Very first post after years of reading the topics on net weather, must say some very interesting posts and opinions. Me, I love the winters cold and the summers warm and dry. I have been a weather nut and a lover of cold winters since I can remember being a young boy. Back in those days during the 1970s, I remember as a small child on winter nights looking out of the window lamp post watching. I would be waiting for the first snow flake to fall when the weatherman on the bbc news at 9pm had predicted the rain to turn to snow. Happy days! I have been lucky to have experienced some cold winters in the 1970s and especially the winter of 81/82 and more recently 09/10. So what about this winter, well no science behind my thoughts only a general feeling I have each year, which over the years my wife lets me know I tend to get more right than wrong. This winter I feel will be a typical 1970s winter, 2 or more major nationwide snow events mixed in with mild incursions. More frost and fog and cold calm days where the sun shines and the frost stays in the ground. Living on an island we will still get the wet and windy periods. However, not the very wet winter of 13/14. I guess for cold lovers a better winter overall. So there we have it! I maybe completely wrong with my predictions but winters is coming and If you are like me? I can't wait to see the first snow flake fall.

What a day today as been, Cats & Dogs even a....... TORNADO: THIS picture shows the tornado that formed over Burton earlier this morning. Reader Adam Wright captured the stunning image as he made his way down Derby Road this morning. Laura Young, press officer for the Met Office, said: "One of our weather experts has looked at the picture and has agreed that it is very, very likely to be genuine. "The thickness shows that it represents what a tornado should look like. http://www.burtonmail.co.uk/TORNADO-Picture-Burton-twister-formed-town/story-23302766-detail/story.html

Amusing how this has become a version of the model thread with 'predict the OPI', and even more so when most interpretations don't seem to take into account how the OPI is calculated. However, there may be more to Arctic heights than meets the eye. Over the 38 years of the OPI data, the October AO correlation with winter AO is a weak positive 0.279 and 65.8% of winters have the same AO sign as October (compared to ~50% by chance). But looking at the October 500mb geopotential anomaly over only the north pole from NCAR/NCEP plots though shows that a positive anomaly followed by a negative winter AO and vice versa is correct 73.7% of the time with a correlation of 0.387. Now the figures aren't up to what is claimed for the OPI but shows they might have stumbled on something. One more thing particularly piqued my interest, in creating some sort of index to compare the north pole geopotential to the winter AO, the anomaly was negated and divided by 100 and notably the result was identical to the OPI for 1980, 1993 and 1994. Admittedly this is from BFTVs figures but then it was also very close on a couple of others.

think its sorted thanks folks-old age is a sad affliction-buggers up the memory something rotten herewith 500mb various posts in order of posting-21 oct 2014.doc it has 16 pages so may take a while to download for some-free choice to look or ignore, will also post it into the technical thread although the contents are not at all technical

There's been 48 years of OPI recording, and in 8 of them, the OPI has been sub -1 (of course only one year, 2009, was sub -2) OPI (Winter CET anomaly) 2009: -3.15 (-2.1c) 1985: -1.9 (-1.6c) 1984: -1.8 (-1.8c) 1978: -1.8 (-2.9c) 1976: -1.75 (-1.2c) 2012: -1.65 (-0.7c) 1986: -1.3 (-1.0c) 1982: -1.1 (-0.2c) See, don't get too scared folks! Hell, even 1981-82, 1995-96 and 2010-11 are missing from here, night!

Breezy drying day here with sunny intervals, currently 9c.. Pulling a couple of loads of neeps for cattle for the next few days in case it gets too wet. See on BBC News Scotland that there are record numbers of geese in the Montrose Basin just now .They mentioned the last time there were so many at this time was 2010!!! Anyone believe in the goose weather forward forecasting model?

Thanks. get ready folks...a repeat of winter 2009/10 looks unlikely, because were getting 1962/63 repeat.

Todays OPI of -2.52 continues to cement the thoughts on where the landing zone is going to be. Heres a nice statistic & very simple. If we have 4 more days after today at -2 which looks likely- This takes us out to the 25th, After that even if the last 6 days averaged Only Neutral we would deliver -1.65. Nearly there folks.... S

ECM hasn't updated on Meteociel so you are using the wrong charts, however here is the 00z ECM at 168 & 192 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif No Sign of any vortex getting into shape with both weak NAO & AO signatures- probs in the order of -0.5 ish. GEM is similar today with slightly more positive blocking towards Greenland- http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014102100/gemnh-0-168.png?00 Whilst its not Strong blocking, the heights are circa 528-544 @ 500 MB, where as the usual October Mean would suggest it should be nearer 500-504 DAM ... In Summary around 60N a good anomaly signature for October & weak negative AO blocking, however at this time of year a weak negative AO is a STRONG inverse to the norm............ S

Good morning. The Westerly bandwagon largely goes on within the models this morning. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY OCTOBER 21ST 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A Low in the Northern North sea will move away East. A strong NW flow will back slowly Westerly and decrease from the West tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South. Near or slightly above average temperatures. Rather windy at times in the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow running SE currently across the UK will undulate north and South over the coming days as troughs and ridges pass West to East. The flow simplifies to a West to East motion across the Atlantic and the British Isles through the second week. GFS The GFS operational today shows a basic pattern of Westerly winds across the UK over the coming few weeks. there will be ebbs and flows in the strength of this pattern and with High pressure predicted to be not far from the South of the UK at times there will be a fair amount of cloud at times here with occasional rain. In the North the westerly flow is shown to be more active and strong with more frequent bouts of wind and rain followed by brighter, cooler and more showery conditions. With a Westerly flow throughout temperatures should be held close to the average overall. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. With only daily specifics marking any difference between the operational and it's ensembles this morning the same mix of westerly winds and occasional rain and showers is the main focus of conditions shown across the UK over the next few weeks with the most rain and wind over the North. UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure High just to the South and Low to the North early next week with dry and bright conditions likely in the South with windy weather further North with occasional rain or showers in average temperatures for all. THE FAX CHARTS Warm sector conditions with cloudy and drizzly conditions will develop over the coming days with less wind than today. Cold fronts cross SE across Britain at the weekend with some rain followed by scattered showers then likely. GEM The GEM operational is also showing a long spell of Westerly winds in response to High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North. Occasional rain and strong winds as a result particularly over the North will continue with longer dry and mild spells further South. A shift towards colder NNW winds at the end of the run is shown. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a typical Autumn synoptic setup with Low pressure dominant near Iceland and High pressure to the South and SW with a Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times from troughs over the North and west and longer drier spells further South f rather cloudy. It will be generally quite mild over the period. ECM The ECM operational today looks a lot less settled in the longer term as the recent build of pressure from the South next week has been replaced by further Low pressure moving in from the SW or West with rain at times in generally mild conditions. There are though some colder incursions from the NW shown to affect the North at times with showers. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The general trend remains for a North/South split in the weather over the next few weeks in a typical Autumn setup. MY THOUGHTS The Westerly pattern of weather over the UK through the next few weeks has again been endorsed this morning as most models like the idea of holding High pressure to the South of the UK and Low near Iceland. This amounts to the continuation of a broad Westerly flow across the UK and troughs in association with the Low pressure to the North will cross many areas with occasional rain. The most rain will always be towards the North with the best of the drier periods across the South. With a Westerly flow temperatures will never be cold and temperatures could be a little above at times across the South and below in the North in occasional polar maritime air. The ECM operational throws something of a curveball this morning in removing High pressure from the South of the UK as the Jet Stream slips South and allows Low pressure to make inroads into the UK from the SW as well as NW with rain at times a more universal commodity across the UK by then. It will be interesting if this is a new trend from the model or a blip as it recently has been dogged in showing High pressure moving up across the South later next week up until this morning. So in a nutshell it's more of the same as the UK continues to be covered by basically Westerly winds and occasional rainfall in a North/South split over the outlook period today with cold weather still shown to be outside of the current timeframes covered by the models.

Dancerwithwings Thanks for the big welcome, and yes I still lamp post watch. The wife and kids think I'm crazy leaving the outside lights on during the night when snow is predicted.

A continuation of the unsettled weather looks likely right to months end .with fluctuations in the temperatures between cold and mild, pretty normal Autumn weather tbh! Gone ,has the predicted pressure rise from the south as was hinted at from the ecm and gfs a few days ago as early as next week! giving us some very high unseasonable temperatures,,,,,It looks like some windows of fine and calm weather on offer, resulting in some frost, mist and fog. At last we have returned to a more normal Autumn pattern.

Another angle on this ... one thought in my mind has been that, though the PV has taken time to get its act together, it hasn't been far off at any point and now as the end of October approaches all the PV cards might fall into line, at least if some recent model runs are to be believed: ... also, some others on here have wondered if the state of the atmosphere at the end of October is more important than at the beginning - after all, why should the OPI limit itself to being a straight average across the 31 days of October? So I dug out the NH charts for the end of October for some of the recent "super negative" OPI years: So all of the previous years had a far more scattered PV come the end of October, I'd sure you'd agree from the above - and therefore I suggest the daily OPI readings at the end of these months were still contributing to the overly negative OPI score - whereas with this year, the OPI might be holding on based on "gains" from earlier in the month (though of course the chart for 29th October 2014 is merely a forecast that could be wrong). Something to think about if this year's AO does not match up to previous years with -1.5 OPIs or less.

Very blustery here but nothing out of the ordinary.

One should not get too hung up on the state of the polar vortex at this stage - it is expected to develop by late october. If you had been looking at the appended charts in the daily NWP output, in context of the OPI, all hope would be seen to be gone. For this year, so many of the things now considered important, were in the wrong phase ie. wQBO, peak of solar max and transitional ENSO. It is important to remember that nothing is ever as it seems in weather or the modelling of it. The month in entirety http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=10&day=1&year=1978&map=4&hour=0 Culminating in this apparently impenetrable object!

According to the terminology used in explaining the OPI; the 0z coming up tomorrow morning will be the first run to factor in all of October (1-21 October actual, 22-31 forecast). I think from there, we can reach a more reliable and tight spread of solutions. If it's -2.13 at the end of the month, virtual pints on me.

GEM has backed off its cut off arctic hgh and subsequent high anomolys spread across the arctic. now finds an aluetian ridge and general nw canadian/alaskan blocking in contrast with its earlier run. at least gfs is showing a modicom of consistency though tbh, no model currently covering itself in glory with its arctic modelling post day 6 at the moment. cant really see any way that a sub -1.5 OPI cannot be returned, though whether it could get below -2 remains in the balance. thereafter, we await riccardo's teams analysis.

Another encouraging update. I think people need to all relax a little - we aint going to end up at +1.6 like last year and there are many other drivers too. Last winter was as bad as it could get for cold here (not a single snowflake) so anything will be an improvement on that.

It should be noted re: ECM Greenland heights - this seems to have been a bias over the past couple of years around this time of the year in the extended timeframe. Even back in 2012/13 there was constant suggestion of more significant retrogression and building of heights in to this region from the ECM, none of which really bore fruit. So my advice would be when the ECM op is out on its own with this suggestion it might be best to apply some caution to the situation. SK

Unlikely in this storm bud. You'd need rapid cyclogenesis with an intrusion of dry air. It shows up nicely on a sat image, or on a fax chart as a back bent occlusion. They normally show up on fax charts quite late, so sat images are the best way to see if they occur.

Notice Ian isn't around when the past 8 months have been incredibly mild, he only cares about winter mildness it seems.

In hindsight all the signs were there in October 2009 for a cold winter to follow yet that same month the MetO issued it's now famous mild winter 2009/10 prediction. After forecasting a BBQ summer in 2009 the winter forecast was there last seasonal forecast. Good decision chaps. I am really excited about the OPI as I always suspected that the seeds of winter were sown in October. Andy

I wouldn't say there's that much in it rbjw - 76 in particular was significantly more organised and in a much worse position than our current one. While heights over the Arctic are maybe a bit lower generally than some of those other charts it still doesn't look particularly organised. Also worth remembering Interitus' comments on this too - the -ve value this time actually comes from the angle bit of the equation rather than just the heights.

I've deleted the charts in your post for economy of space. As far as I understand, the pattern needs to be looked at in terms of geopotential height anomalies - these charts do not show that and as far as I can see not available in archived data. Probably can do it in reanalysis if important. What the anomalies of the month to date show, is that it will take very negative poleward heights to make inroads on what we have already 'banked'.

If it was 2.19 I'd be crying right now

I hope these OPI stats turn out right for a cold winter in the UK, otherwise the Samaritans will be busy in a few months time.

For the ones who prefer to use the PDF-version, here it is: 500mb various posts in order of posting-21 oct 2014.pdf Hope this helps

the pdf with various things about using 500mb anomaly charts along with examples 500mb various posts in order of posting-21 oct 2014.doc

-2.52 based on the 6z which is a relief.

ta for that mate, not sure if I ever got round to doing part 2? Part 2 has been done along with other illustrations of using these charts. When/if I get time I will put them all into 1 post as a pdf with a heading to make them easy to find. Then it is not cluttering up the current model thread.

Using the 500mb anomaly charts it will be interesting to see which of them is closer to reality come the month end NOAA has slowly moved at 6-10 day time frames to what is shown below. This would suggest surface high pressure will develop beneath the upper ridge and +ve height anomaly. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php If you move to its 8-14 day outlook then this idea is persisted with. Indeed it was the 8-14 that showed a ridge and +ve heights before it got into the 6-10 day time frame. Below is the latest from EC-GFS, neither really support the NOAA version http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html When there is this divergence it is rare in the years I have been using these that they give a better handle on things than the NOAA outputs. This is especially so when both the 6-10 and 8-14 show similar patterns. So by month end do we have a mobile westerly with some decrease in that effect for the SE 1/4 of the UK or is the NOAA idea more likely giving more settled conditions over a larger part of the UK? Interesting to see how this plays out. My money is on the NOAA version. No sign of any major cold plunge in the next 2-3 weeks either in my estimation.

I think it's one of the better long range bird-based forecasting tools, an upgrade on TEITS' seagull model and streaks ahead of the CFS, with similar vertical resolution Looks fairly blowy tomorrow (although not as bad as the worst storms we've seen since 2011) and once again a storm which likes to target the bridges at rush hour - 40 knots sustained wind progged for Fife at 9am: The far NE corner could see some awful winds around mid-afternoon - wouldn't advice going out on the North Sea certainly: Given the way it's lined up there's no chance of a topographically 'well-aligned' sting jet roaring through the central belt this time, but areas exposed to NWerlies will likely see sustained gale force winds for most of the day: Another very wet 48 hours for the west coast:

Have done a new synoptic outlook for the next 14 days: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6238;sess= Synoptic Outlook Discussion - Update 20th October 2014 General synopsis over next 14 days The long stretch of unsettled westerlies now looks to continue into early next week and less confidence that pressure will build from the SW as per previous forecasts, though some 50% of GEFS members and ECMWF esemble mean going for some build of pressure from the S or SW from mid-week next week. Once a deep depression (ex-Hurricane Gonzalo) passes NE to north of Scotland tomorrow, the UK looks likely to remain under the influence of persistent low pressure complex to the north near Iceland for rest of this week, over the w/e and into early next week, bringing unsettled conditions and generally mild or very mild conditions with little scope for hill snow. From mid-week, potential for pressure to build from the south, but equally a balance in favour for unsettled westerlies to prevail towards end of the month too. Short Term (5 day outlook) Strong westerly jet streak arrives across UK Monday night, with it a deep depression (remnants of ex-Hurricane Gonzalo) which will track NE to the north of Scotland Tuesday, the low around 975mb close to Northern Isles at noon Tuesday. Active cold front bringing heavy rain sweeps east early Tuesday morning, clearing east coast by mid-morning. Strong/gale force SWly ahead of cold front veering strong/gale/severe gale force NWly colder flow following front. Transient ridge of high pressure quickly builds in from the west by early Wednesday before pressure falls from the NW during Wednesday, with arrival of new Atlantic frontal system across northern Britain, bringing cloud and rain. Then persistent low pressure system remains close to Iceland for rest of the week, driving an unsettled/cyclonic SWly flow across the UK. A cold front, bringing rain, erratically moves SE across the UK on Thursday and Friday, probably clearing SE England Friday afternoon. Longer term (6-14 day outlook) Perhaps drier for southern Britain over the weekend, but closer to low pressure system near Iceland - northern Britain will experience Atlantic fronts and strong SWly flow which will bring cloud and rain at times. Rain persistent and heavy across western Scotland – especially windward slopes. Pressure falling from the NW across all parts early next week, with Atlantic frontal systems making inroads further south and east – bringing threat of some rain to all areas. Not a great deal of confidence mid-week onwards, but 50% chance that pressure will start to build from the south just to the W or SW of UK mid/late week as trough amplifies upstream over Atlantic, which may bring in drier weather to southern parts and/or bring a cooler northwesterly flow by end of the week. The north/south split (drier south/unsettled north) could persist into following weekend (Sat 1st Nov and Sun 2nd Nov), increasing risk of frost/fog in south under high pressure while north sees risk of cloud, rain and windy conditions at times. ECMWF/GFS 8-10 day mean 500mb heights (orange = ridging, blue = troughing):

I'm beginning to think it might be better if the OPI comes in negative but not so low that expectations run wild. A value near -2.5 might see people becoming very impatient and expect the freeze to start on December 1st. I'd view a lowish negative OPI simply as giving the UK a fighting chance of some decent wintry spells, for every rule there is always the exception and we should bear this in mind. If for arguments sake we had a hundred years of data to compare that would increase our confidence, as it is we don't and need to take that into account.

What is worrying me is that people are getting too hung up on this. Great for research, not great if people are hanging on every nuance of it.

This thread, okay it is the moaning thread, but it is almost as bad as the one for the most boring months. Many of the entries in there are about years that none of the posters have experienced so reading either another persons' version or making up their own based on data. In this thread how anyone can say the weather is boring is a bit of a laugh. Perhaps they mean there is no sign of biting cold northerlies with the prospect of frost and snow? An ex hurricane is going to affect the country, its exact track not yet clear. Is that not interesting on a weather forum? The will the OPI or not be an indicator come 31 October for the coming winter. Have a look in the world wide weather for interest if you feel it is boring in your own back yard. There is always weather of interest somewhere now we have access to the web. Be it rain, wind, snow or whatever that is your favourite. Stacks of web cams to watch the weather around the world. Watch the snow advance south on them, all sorts of things to interest you if you are a genuine weather fan I would have thought. Do your own statistics for your area, either from your own weather station or the nearest one, when was the last time this or that occurred, how long since a particular event, I am never bored for very long with so much to play around with in terms of actual weather and statistics. Failing all else get outside in the garden, go for a walk, lovely round here this morning as the wind got up and started to blow the leaves down, many with lovely colours catching in the sun. end of jh sermon!

When it gets busy again as we approach winter, the regionals will be expanded again. At the moment, we're getting through one page every couple of days. If we break up the regions at this point it would make discussion practically non-existent.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29700594 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29701661 Just been updated the woman died unfortunately.

Just on my lunch break,it's very stormy out there I see the winds are gusting 70mph just up the road at St Bees Head. Met office were bang on with this event, they've been getting much better lately with storm forecasts, they had the early warnings out 4 days in advance.

Wild ,horizontal rain , thunder hail and60 +gusts horrendous !!!!!!!!!

The yellow and red are the positive anomalies given in decametres (dam) and the blues are the negative anomaly. In other words the departure of the geopotential height from average at 500mb. The NOAA charts do it differently with red and blue dashed lines as you know but it amounts to the same thing. You have to be a bit careful with the charts as the way they are presented can tend to overemphasise. They are no different to the other anomaly charts people show on here apart from NOAA. In fact JH's explanation of the NOAA chart covers it really. 500mb charts-are they a useful guide-8 feb 12.pdf

Sorry can you help me out here. Do the yellows and red colours suggest higher than average Air Pressure readings and the blues, lower pressure anomaly readings? Or are they higher up in the atmosphere, i.e. not relative to what we get at the surface.

Just been hailstoning Thundering now !!!!! Its gonna be a wild day !!

It looks like the different ECM op at Day 10 was out of kilter with its ensemble pack as the 10 Day Mean keeps the North/South mild split going. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Once a strong block forms it can last for weeks sometimes months. Last year when the polar vortex got it's strength going in October/November it never really weakened. The weaker the polar vortex now the harder it will be for it to gain it's strength later on and into winter.

Evening all, pretty crappy day albeit a warmish, showers and stiff breeze. Just back from a week in Skegvegas, and it was great for the most part (Monday excluded) Most evenings... Most days... North sea not very warm though. lol Not looking forward to sitting on the runway tomorrow morning at 6am, think the pilot might save fuel and let Gonzalo take us somewhere other than Londonshire.

It's the pre-winter equivalent to those panicky 'oh no, the GFS is forecasting my foot of snow to melt slightly in 8 days' posts we had in the MT in 09/10 and December 2010 I'm sure at the start of the month most people would've taken a circa 80+% chance (if OPI is valid, which I guess is a big if still at this stage) -NAO and near certain -AO as things stand, based on the worst run of the day with only 11 days left of the month.

No op consistency = take no notice