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Showing most liked content on 04/10/14 in all areas

  1. 9 points
    Tonking it down in Cairngorms. http://www.cairngormmountain.org/webcam/
  2. 9 points
    A dusting this morning in the Cairngorms
  3. 6 points
    Well we had the wettist winter on record. Next i personally would like to see the snowest winter on record.
  4. 5 points
    A new thread to bring us up to date and take us through Autumn moving ever closer to Winter! The first batch of wet & windy weather has already made it's presence felt over the last 24 hours, the beginning of next week is also looking very wet and very windy especially for the N&W of the UK. Discuss the potential for any stormy weather which may affect the UK. Post charts & analysis, keep us up to date with reports of whats happening in your local area and how the bad weather is affecting you. Lets keep it civil, stay on topic and enjoy! I wonder what the rest of Autumn has in store for us....
  5. 4 points
    Meridional Jet is the best thing around the charts this evening. Quite a rapid switch from late summer into oblique, dark, grey morning Autumn. Just seeing something this N-S is a pleasure compared to the endless charts of Zonal Assault last year. Overnight minima spilling below zero on NMM4 - shameless promotion of Netweather Extra 4km model here, great detail. From Eumetsat and alluded to earlier via yrno sat image the cold airmass completely evident in Red. We have some sub 510d air on tonights ECM analysis. At 144 we have the Polar Vortex right on bulls eye as perfect as it could be painted as an Autumn precursor to winter and eyes forward for the season, also the starting pistol of the Aleutian Low in place for that stratospheric kick start. Enjoyable model output as we move from what is a truly anomalous Sept. into 'traditional' Autumn. GLAAM in Nina state where other factors tell a different story, that South Pacific HP cell mixing things up ( thanks Ant for highlighting). September 2013 and 2014 for comparison gives a very basic indication that a different Autumn > Winter will emerge Different ride this winter...all aboard..
  6. 4 points
    HI Ben, What we are looking for is something called the SAI ( snow advance index) This is or can be important for Europe and us on our little island. There is a theory that the earlier snow cover over the continent the better, this is because as snow covers the continent to our east, high pressure has a better chance of building , Its called the Cohen effect and has a lot to do with a very cold surface and teleconnections from that into the atmosphere , take a look at this image i posted earlier its the most recent and updates every 24hrs. At the moment the most snow cover in Russia is well to the east , what we would like to see is the snow cover advancing west toward Europe and into it ( incidentley it looks like it will over the coming few days) . Snow cover especially this month is very important for those teleconnections to have a chance of having developing and have an effect on the atmosphere over those regions. When and if, a high builds over Russia and eastern Europe, the high can drift far enough our way to block the atlantic and produce easterly winds direct from Siberia and northern blocking. It is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination but the possibilty remains. There are many other variables to be considered that can impact our weather type in winter. Not to quote a supermarket slogan but "every little helps" Hope this helps Ben .
  7. 4 points
    Monday morning is going to be tricky for far N/W of Scotland & Irish Sea, With Storm Force winds effecting the Isles..
  8. 4 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST TEXT ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will clear East out of Britain today followed by a ridge of High pressure over the South later. Later still sees a deep Low move SE towards Western Britain with a strengthening SW flow later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The change in positioning of the Jet flow is currently under way. It will settle blowing strongly across the Atlantic towards Southern England and the English Channel over the next week or so with somewhat more variability shown in week 2 though generally maintaining a latitude well South of recent levels, certainly over the Atlantic and NW Europe. GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep Low move down from the NW towards a point NW of ireland and then moves slowly NE late next week filling slowly. This will deliver quite a few days of windy and unsettled weather with spells of rain and showers for all. A quieter interlude then develops though still rather unsettled but with lighter winds bext weekend before Week 2 sees a return to wet and windy conditions in strong SW winds across the UK with deep Low pressure anchored to the NW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar with much unsettled weather over the next few weeks. It does show a different scenario in Week 2 in that Low pressure is further South over the Atlantic later with a large and warm High pressure over Eastern Europe pumping some of that warm air North across Britain late in the period with most of the rainfall by then across the West. UKMO UKMO this morning has deep Low pressure near Western Ireland on Wednesday gradually transferring NE over the following 48 hours. This means that the weather across the UK will be very unsettled and wet at times with spells of rain and showers in strong winds too, all gradually becoming less pronounced towards the end of the week as the Low fills and moves away to the NE. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex zone of Low pressure developing just to the West of the UK next week. This is shown to be slow moving and throwing troughs of Low pressure East and NE across the UK regularly in cool and often blustery weather with showers and longer spells of rain for all areas, the latter most likely towards the South. GEM The GEM operational looks very Autumnal this morning with the deep Low pressure next week very slowly drifting North late in the week but only at the expense of a new centre moving in to replace it to maintain a Low complex close to the North with Westerly winds and rain and showers for all at times throughout the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM is also slow to remove Low pressure away from the UK later next week with the centre still over Scotland quite late next week with further Low pressure out in the Atlantic and a trough to the SW keeping the unsettled theme going beyond the period albeit not quite as windy as early next week. ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and over the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure only slowly edging away North later and further Low pressure up to the NW driving further strong SW winds and rain across the UK late in the run there is little respite from the unsettled period apart from the thrust of the heaviest rain reverting towards the North and West later with some warmer winds affecting the South and East later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards better weather in week 2 shown in yesterdays 00zs has been reversed somewhat this morning. MY THOUGHTS We are currently entering the first spell of seriously Autumnal weather across the UK this season as Low pressure becomes the driving force to the weather over the next couple of weeks. In the short term a deep Low looks very likely to be close to Western and Northern Britain for much of next week with plenty of rain and showers for all in blustery and much cooler conditions than of late. Most output then only shows slow moderation in these conditions as the Low fills and drifts slowly away North or NE. This still appears to leave an unstable if lighter Westerly flow with further rain in places before further Atlantic Low pressure rolls over from the West, probably on a slightly more Northern aspect bringing the heaviest rain and strongest winds to more Northern and NW areas with the South and East experiencing a chance at least of something a little drier and less cool as milder SW winds set up. The Jet Stream though seems to heave ratcheted up a copuple of gears over recent runs and this throws the risk of some active Low pressure areas at times throughout the next few weeks with the exception of a temporary reduction in strength next weekend. With High pressure sending some very warm air at times across Europe in the second week and the comparative cool Autumn air to the NW of Britain a spell of notably wet and windy weather in Week 2 looks possible over the higher ground of the North and West as the warm South or SW flow over the UK engages with the cooler air to the NW and gives rise to an active waving frontal zone somewhere over the UK. Something to watch for certain in week 2. However, having said all of this despite temperatures much lower than of late there is no distinctly cold weather on offer from the models today and it may well be that the South and East see above average temperatures return again if the moist SW or South flow develops in week 2 as hinted at this morning.
  9. 4 points
    The GFS 00z op run shows the uk within an expanding bubble of low pressure through next week with bands of stronger winds and rain occasionally pushing north and east across the uk but there are some suckers gaps of fine weather between the rain and showers so there will be spells of sunshine too but don't rely on it lasting. Next week also looks on the chilly side compared to the warmth of this autumn so far, temperatures close to where they should be during early / mid october with the northwest of the uk a little below average and the south / southeast a little above. The overall theme of this run is unsettled but during low res there are brief flat atlantic ridges separating us from the next vigorous depression, indeed the atlantic looks very fired up through low res and as the euro high becomes stronger by the end of the run, the uk is in a zone of gale force sw'ly winds with very tight isobars, very moist and mild tropical air by then with lots of rain for the uk.
  10. 3 points
    Really no change in the output, traditional autumn weather at last from both ecm and gfs......
  11. 3 points
    Wow... what an image, shows the cold front clearing the east coast now... look out to the atlantic though...polar maritime against tropical maritme (cold versus warm) love the way it shows exactly where the jet stream is flowing , ( the little gap between low and high) where the two collide will make it very wet and windy , Ireland and West coast regions look likely targets, the gfs is showing a pretty potent front developing from sunday into monday for the uk , a very wet and windy scenario.
  12. 3 points
    This is what I like about early / mid october...the Gfs 06z op run shows cold 528 dam thicknesses pushing south towards scotland and we also have the warm 564 dam pushing north towards southern england, so on the one hand the far north could have snow showers on high ground and the south of england could end up having a mid october BBQ. There is a nice end to this run but overall the high res is very unsettled with lots of strong winds and rain, especially for the north then turning colder in the north with night frosts and a risk of snow on the highest hills / mountains of scotland.
  13. 3 points
  14. 3 points
    Some very strong south to south easterly winds moving in to the west during the early hours of Monday morning with gusts around 60-70mph and perhaps even higher for the Western Isles with a risk of storm force winds, accompanied by some heavy rainfall.
  15. 3 points
    Morning all, GFS & ECMWF Continue the cool/wet and unsettled theme through-out the run, With Lows driving in of the Atlantic on a pretty strong Jet Stream over, Or just South of the UK.
  16. 3 points
    Night time lapse of approach of front from west Manchester
  17. 2 points
    Are we in Hell Yet? By Benedikt Jóhannesson October 04, 2014 10:45 Updated: October 04, 2014 10:45 A night photo by taken by a drone camera. Photo: Ragnar Th. Sigurðsson On August 26 CBS posted a news item called: Iceland prepares for “Volcano from Hellâ€. Of course Icelanders (and others) have heard the stories about volcanoes being the gateway to hell before. Hekla, Iceland’s most famous volcano, was thought to house demons that danced around the crater and at Askja, just north of the current eruption, tourists bathe in a crater called Víti, which really means Hell. At the time people were afraid that a sub-glacial eruption might begin at any moment. Let’s go to that item: “This could be the volcano from hell,†said CBS News contributor and City University of New York physics professor Michio Kaku. “To quote Yogi Berra, 'It's deja vu all over again.' Remember the paralysis from four years ago? Millions of passengers being stranded with the threat of airplanes falling from the sky?†“This is not an ordinary volcanic eruption,†he said. “You have fine magmatic dust in the air. It could potentially cut through a glacier--freezing--causing a gasifie,d rocky, pebbly cloud to arise, and that gets in to an engine and chews up the gears, chews up the blades. So this ash coming out is not typical ash. That's why ice volcanoes are more dangerous than typical volcanoes.†Photo: Ragnar Th. Sigurðsson Luckily, we are not there yet. But the pictures shown here, taken by photographer Ragnar Th. Sigurðsson can give you that eerie feeling that Hell is not so far away. http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/04/are-we-hell-yet
  18. 2 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z op run is very unsettled throughout, especially further north, just a weak flat atlantic ridge pushing across the south at the end of next week bringing brief respite before more low pressure piles in from the atlantic, an atlantic which is cranking up during next week. It's a very autumnal pattern with wet & windy spells and occasionally brighter with blustery showers, temperatures much closer to the seasonal average, ranging between just below average in the north / nw and just above in the SE at times. The PFJ is sometimes digging much further south but is then forced north again as pressure rises across mainland europe but the uk is for the most part, a very unsettled zone with lots of rain and sometimes strong winds during the next 10 days and probably beyond, the south / se having the best of any drier, brighter and milder conditions between bouts of unsettled weather.
  19. 2 points
    The next week looks to extend the snow cover in the important below 60 degrees sector. GFS 12z forecast to +192.
  20. 2 points
    Apologies if this has been already posted, but thought it was pretty spectacular. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2779647/GoPro-goes-furnace-Drone-fitted-camera-captures-stunning-footage-volcano-erupting-doesn-t-survive-heat.html
  21. 2 points
    it feels like a big event cos we've had bland rubbish for weeks
  22. 2 points
  23. 2 points
    Impressive positive anomalies on both sides of the Arctic
  24. 2 points
    Ensemble means from GFS,ECM and GEM looking very seasonal as we head towards mid-October with the Atlantic trough running the show,so bouts of wind and rain likely with temperatures around average.
  25. 2 points
    Yes quite a change for the coming week PM,underway now even in the south as the cold front and rain comes through today. Much cooler air following so feeling a lot different down here compared to recent weeks. A look at the fax out towards mid-week shows the cyclonic pattern over us. it looks like we are now sliding towards a much more seasonal Atlantic profile with bands of rain and showers for the next week and beyond with temperatures much closer to normal.
  26. 2 points
    just a brief digression as this chart reminds me of the joy of being on Weather Station Julliet at 52.30n, 20.00 west.
  27. 2 points
    The anomalies tonight are all evolving towards a low pressure dominant Atlantic albeit with a fairly slack pattern. The HP in the west perhaps slipping a tad south. The main difference is the GFS shows little sign of any influence from the HP to the E and SE whereas the ECM certainly pushes it further west so still leaving the door ajar, This perhaps suggested by the different orientation of the jet as the GFS has it much stronger and further south than the ECM. This really still up in the air as at the moment it could resolve into quite a wet unsettled pattern ( probably favourite) or a drier one, in the south especially There is nothing like a bit of fence sitting and covering all the angles.
  28. 2 points
    I'll be moving into a property tomorrow where the heating bills are included in the rent, so as soon as it gets a bit nippy it's going on
  29. 2 points
    Hello FU Berlin site, long time no see...
  30. 1 point
    All very complicated but yes, there is a correlation. If October records an AO value in excess of +0.7 then statistically the winter records an AO value in excess of -0.7. But, there's no telling whether thats from one month or not. It should be noted however that 09 recorded a record -AO October and then the record -AO winter. Cohen has about a 0.5 correlation with the winter AO.
  31. 1 point
    Clear night, wind has died and there is a nice moon. Will expect our first frost tomorrow am if it stays this way
  32. 1 point
    So much of the slow intensification that was anticipated. An eye has become very well defined and a circular, albeit slightly ragged, eyewall has developed. This is illustrated in the Dvorak satellite loop below: Dvorak satellite loop of Simon. Also note the vigorous outflow to the north of the system, while some outflow is also evident on the western and southern portion of the system. Given the current satellite presentation, as well as the intensity estimate from the NHC, it seems imminent that Simon becomes the ninth major hurricane of the season. Source: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-112.45,26.47,1024 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
  33. 1 point
    I want to see snow so deep it comes up to my knees, the type of depth that buries hedges.....and not just over elevated ground (like March 2013). You may laugh considering I live at such a low elevation but the historical records suggest that we have had snow that deep even here before. So it is possible. The maximum snow depth I've ever encountered is about 10cm. At the end of December 1962, Keele uni had 45cm of level snow, even Manchester City Centre had 15cm of snow lying. There were drifts 15 feet deep in some places of the west. Imagine that!
  34. 1 point
    Just hope we don't experience a winter like 2013-14 with all that rain and strong winds from mid Nov to end of Jan.Feb and March were pretty pleasant down this neck of the woods which allowed the drying process.With it looking like a weak El Nino setting up the probability of last winter repeating itself are lower and I hope for a December 2010(unlikely I know!!) followed by cold spells in Jan and Feb with heavy snowfalls and Spring arriving in early March. Time will tell what we get and I look forward to visiting the forums when snow is in the forecast and this place goes bonkers lol!!
  35. 1 point
    I noticed that the BBC had the lightning symbol for some on Tuesday but have since removed it. Hopefully the potential is still there. I would think you're in a good spot for autumn thunderstorms with the warm SSTs playing their part.
  36. 1 point
    The magniude 5 quake was only at 0.9 depth. ie about sea level. I think this the shallowest of all the quakes of mag 5 and above. could be an indication that the walls are coming under strain MIA Sorry STEVE B you beat me to it.
  37. 1 point
    Snow reached Reykjavic now. http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/04/first-snow-reykjavik A snow cover on the higher Scottish hills too this morning.
  38. 1 point
    Probably rained more last 24 hours than it did the whole of september (and seems there's much more rain to come too)
  39. 1 point
    Yes, definite switch to Autumn this week, as reflected in the max temp readings at Leuchars: Sun 20c Mon 20c Tue 21c Wed 17c Thu 16c Fri 15c Sat 9c @ 1200 hrs It's 8.4c in my back garden, fire is lit!
  40. 1 point
    up-to 14.4c to the 3rd 2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
  41. 1 point
    Not too unsettled on GFS for the SE as total rainfall suggests. Total after 3 days: After 8 days: Still looking like a lull for 5-7 days after the LP moves away Tuesday/Wednesday. The GEFS rainfall mean has just nominal amounts from D5 for London: Last night's 8-14 day now trending the surface low anomaly more to the west with the UK in the flow between lower and higher heights (though low confidence mentioned in the prognostic discussion): Difficult to know the surface conditions for a setup like this at this range. ECM at D9 continues it's flip flopping and now has a LP system for the South: Though GEM at D9: and GFS at D9: Do indicate that the models remain uncertain re surface conditions around that time scale so its a case of take your pick.
  42. 1 point
    This year North America is certainly demonstrating it has a wide variety of weather in September as it moves from summer to winter. This year from early month cold to record breaking heat in the plains on 25th/26th September and finally the start of winter cold descending on the Rockies at the end of the month. Here's a wonderful photo of Vail on 30th Sept 2014 showing the colours of Autumn and early season snowfall:
  43. 1 point
    Heating? I haven't stopped opening the windows yet Another day, another drive home in warm summer like sunshine with the windows of the car down.
  44. 1 point
    thank goodness for Cakie, some sensible dialogue in this thread for a change! Hope you well, over there in the foreign climes
  45. 1 point
    People are far too hard on the UK. We are not overcrowded (try driving between London and Nottingham), the cost of living is high and needs addressing but it's hardly terminal. Even the number of people in true poverty (no home, can't eat) is less than 1% of the population. Most of the population is employed, we have a tonne of countryside and we are one of the best places to live in the world on a whole load of metrics.
  46. 1 point
    In my experience scientist's 'Contact details' are made just for that reason? Whenever I've have needed to confirm/dismiss a notion over something I have spotted I ask? even 'scientist's' ( and they are generally prompt to reply and eager to either help you understand {better} or point you to a better person to quiz???). We, it appears (apart from BFTV?) ,we are all 'armchair amateurs so why not go to the folk engaged in the cutting edge science? Afraid? Shy?
  47. 1 point
    I'm hoping it is just part of the normal transition into autumn that takes place every year and will eventually be replaced by a more wintry weather pattern by the middle of November! A repeat of last winter would be a disaster!
  48. 1 point
    What ever happened to Acker bilk ????..
  49. 1 point
    TheWeatherOutlook says The fifth update makes no change to the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and the north. There is thought to be a reasonable chance of predominantly anticyclonic conditions developing during the early part of the winter with a chance of colder continental incursions. In this type of set up southern and eastern areas would be most likely to see colder conditions and a chance of snow flurries. Recent years have brought a range of weather during the festive season to the UK, and there have been some notable cold spells. This year at the present time background signals look fairly neutral but things could change during the autumn. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below. Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% Forecast issued Update 5, 27/09/2014 The computer says [issued 28/09/2014 07:11:30]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.Snow is expected in WalesSnow is expected in the MidlandsCold but dry conditions are expected in the northSnow is expected in ScotlandCold but dry conditions are expected in Northern IrelandCold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of IrelandSnow is expected in the Netherlandshttp://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
  50. 1 point
    3C jump in temperature is bound to have some impact? Every year has some variability, to claim it's on downward trend after 2013 seems a little premature, no? Perhaps this record will convince you that the changes in the Arctic are noteworthy... Have you read the journal article I posted? If the Arctic warms, the temperature gradient between the Arctic and lower latitudes will be reduced (as it is in summer) and the jet stream will be altered. November December January February I'm not trying to say this is a dominant feature of out winter weather, simply that it is something we should now take account of. I agree. I'd rather not have these kind of posts here, they would be better in the climate area. I'm just responding to a post dismissing the effect of reduced Arctic sea ice and Arctic amplification on our weather. If it wasn't mentioned, I wouldn't have felt the need to respond. But a lot of misinformation is spread about climate science, and i think it's important to clarify some of the issues
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