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Showing most liked content on 04/10/14 in all areas

  1. 9 points
    Tonking it down in Cairngorms. http://www.cairngormmountain.org/webcam/
  2. 9 points
    A dusting this morning in the Cairngorms
  3. 6 points
    Well we had the wettist winter on record. Next i personally would like to see the snowest winter on record.
  4. 5 points
    A new thread to bring us up to date and take us through Autumn moving ever closer to Winter! The first batch of wet & windy weather has already made it's presence felt over the last 24 hours, the beginning of next week is also looking very wet and very windy especially for the N&W of the UK. Discuss the potential for any stormy weather which may affect the UK. Post charts & analysis, keep us up to date with reports of whats happening in your local area and how the bad weather is affecting you. Lets keep it civil, stay on topic and enjoy! I wonder what the rest of Autumn has in store for us....
  5. 4 points
    Meridional Jet is the best thing around the charts this evening. Quite a rapid switch from late summer into oblique, dark, grey morning Autumn. Just seeing something this N-S is a pleasure compared to the endless charts of Zonal Assault last year. Overnight minima spilling below zero on NMM4 - shameless promotion of Netweather Extra 4km model here, great detail. From Eumetsat and alluded to earlier via yrno sat image the cold airmass completely evident in Red. We have some sub 510d air on tonights ECM analysis. At 144 we have the Polar Vortex right on bulls eye as perfect as it could be painted as an Autumn precursor to winter and eyes forward for the season, also the starting pistol of the Aleutian Low in place for that stratospheric kick start. Enjoyable model output as we move from what is a truly anomalous Sept. into 'traditional' Autumn. GLAAM in Nina state where other factors tell a different story, that South Pacific HP cell mixing things up ( thanks Ant for highlighting). September 2013 and 2014 for comparison gives a very basic indication that a different Autumn > Winter will emerge Different ride this winter...all aboard..
  6. 4 points
    HI Ben, What we are looking for is something called the SAI ( snow advance index) This is or can be important for Europe and us on our little island. There is a theory that the earlier snow cover over the continent the better, this is because as snow covers the continent to our east, high pressure has a better chance of building , Its called the Cohen effect and has a lot to do with a very cold surface and teleconnections from that into the atmosphere , take a look at this image i posted earlier its the most recent and updates every 24hrs. At the moment the most snow cover in Russia is well to the east , what we would like to see is the snow cover advancing west toward Europe and into it ( incidentley it looks like it will over the coming few days) . Snow cover especially this month is very important for those teleconnections to have a chance of having developing and have an effect on the atmosphere over those regions. When and if, a high builds over Russia and eastern Europe, the high can drift far enough our way to block the atlantic and produce easterly winds direct from Siberia and northern blocking. It is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination but the possibilty remains. There are many other variables to be considered that can impact our weather type in winter. Not to quote a supermarket slogan but "every little helps" Hope this helps Ben .
  7. 4 points
    Monday morning is going to be tricky for far N/W of Scotland & Irish Sea, With Storm Force winds effecting the Isles..
  8. 4 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST TEXT ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will clear East out of Britain today followed by a ridge of High pressure over the South later. Later still sees a deep Low move SE towards Western Britain with a strengthening SW flow later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The change in positioning of the Jet flow is currently under way. It will settle blowing strongly across the Atlantic towards Southern England and the English Channel over the next week or so with somewhat more variability shown in week 2 though generally maintaining a latitude well South of recent levels, certainly over the Atlantic and NW Europe. GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep Low move down from the NW towards a point NW of ireland and then moves slowly NE late next week filling slowly. This will deliver quite a few days of windy and unsettled weather with spells of rain and showers for all. A quieter interlude then develops though still rather unsettled but with lighter winds bext weekend before Week 2 sees a return to wet and windy conditions in strong SW winds across the UK with deep Low pressure anchored to the NW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar with much unsettled weather over the next few weeks. It does show a different scenario in Week 2 in that Low pressure is further South over the Atlantic later with a large and warm High pressure over Eastern Europe pumping some of that warm air North across Britain late in the period with most of the rainfall by then across the West. UKMO UKMO this morning has deep Low pressure near Western Ireland on Wednesday gradually transferring NE over the following 48 hours. This means that the weather across the UK will be very unsettled and wet at times with spells of rain and showers in strong winds too, all gradually becoming less pronounced towards the end of the week as the Low fills and moves away to the NE. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex zone of Low pressure developing just to the West of the UK next week. This is shown to be slow moving and throwing troughs of Low pressure East and NE across the UK regularly in cool and often blustery weather with showers and longer spells of rain for all areas, the latter most likely towards the South. GEM The GEM operational looks very Autumnal this morning with the deep Low pressure next week very slowly drifting North late in the week but only at the expense of a new centre moving in to replace it to maintain a Low complex close to the North with Westerly winds and rain and showers for all at times throughout the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM is also slow to remove Low pressure away from the UK later next week with the centre still over Scotland quite late next week with further Low pressure out in the Atlantic and a trough to the SW keeping the unsettled theme going beyond the period albeit not quite as windy as early next week. ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and over the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure only slowly edging away North later and further Low pressure up to the NW driving further strong SW winds and rain across the UK late in the run there is little respite from the unsettled period apart from the thrust of the heaviest rain reverting towards the North and West later with some warmer winds affecting the South and East later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards better weather in week 2 shown in yesterdays 00zs has been reversed somewhat this morning. MY THOUGHTS We are currently entering the first spell of seriously Autumnal weather across the UK this season as Low pressure becomes the driving force to the weather over the next couple of weeks. In the short term a deep Low looks very likely to be close to Western and Northern Britain for much of next week with plenty of rain and showers for all in blustery and much cooler conditions than of late. Most output then only shows slow moderation in these conditions as the Low fills and drifts slowly away North or NE. This still appears to leave an unstable if lighter Westerly flow with further rain in places before further Atlantic Low pressure rolls over from the West, probably on a slightly more Northern aspect bringing the heaviest rain and strongest winds to more Northern and NW areas with the South and East experiencing a chance at least of something a little drier and less cool as milder SW winds set up. The Jet Stream though seems to heave ratcheted up a copuple of gears over recent runs and this throws the risk of some active Low pressure areas at times throughout the next few weeks with the exception of a temporary reduction in strength next weekend. With High pressure sending some very warm air at times across Europe in the second week and the comparative cool Autumn air to the NW of Britain a spell of notably wet and windy weather in Week 2 looks possible over the higher ground of the North and West as the warm South or SW flow over the UK engages with the cooler air to the NW and gives rise to an active waving frontal zone somewhere over the UK. Something to watch for certain in week 2. However, having said all of this despite temperatures much lower than of late there is no distinctly cold weather on offer from the models today and it may well be that the South and East see above average temperatures return again if the moist SW or South flow develops in week 2 as hinted at this morning.
  9. 4 points
    The GFS 00z op run shows the uk within an expanding bubble of low pressure through next week with bands of stronger winds and rain occasionally pushing north and east across the uk but there are some suckers gaps of fine weather between the rain and showers so there will be spells of sunshine too but don't rely on it lasting. Next week also looks on the chilly side compared to the warmth of this autumn so far, temperatures close to where they should be during early / mid october with the northwest of the uk a little below average and the south / southeast a little above. The overall theme of this run is unsettled but during low res there are brief flat atlantic ridges separating us from the next vigorous depression, indeed the atlantic looks very fired up through low res and as the euro high becomes stronger by the end of the run, the uk is in a zone of gale force sw'ly winds with very tight isobars, very moist and mild tropical air by then with lots of rain for the uk.
  10. 3 points
    Really no change in the output, traditional autumn weather at last from both ecm and gfs......
  11. 3 points
    Wow... what an image, shows the cold front clearing the east coast now... look out to the atlantic though...polar maritime against tropical maritme (cold versus warm) love the way it shows exactly where the jet stream is flowing , ( the little gap between low and high) where the two collide will make it very wet and windy , Ireland and West coast regions look likely targets, the gfs is showing a pretty potent front developing from sunday into monday for the uk , a very wet and windy scenario.
  12. 3 points
    This is what I like about early / mid october...the Gfs 06z op run shows cold 528 dam thicknesses pushing south towards scotland and we also have the warm 564 dam pushing north towards southern england, so on the one hand the far north could have snow showers on high ground and the south of england could end up having a mid october BBQ. There is a nice end to this run but overall the high res is very unsettled with lots of strong winds and rain, especially for the north then turning colder in the north with night frosts and a risk of snow on the highest hills / mountains of scotland.
  13. 3 points
  14. 3 points
    Some very strong south to south easterly winds moving in to the west during the early hours of Monday morning with gusts around 60-70mph and perhaps even higher for the Western Isles with a risk of storm force winds, accompanied by some heavy rainfall.
  15. 3 points
    Morning all, GFS & ECMWF Continue the cool/wet and unsettled theme through-out the run, With Lows driving in of the Atlantic on a pretty strong Jet Stream over, Or just South of the UK.
  16. 3 points
    Night time lapse of approach of front from west Manchester
  17. 2 points
    Are we in Hell Yet? By Benedikt Jóhannesson October 04, 2014 10:45 Updated: October 04, 2014 10:45 A night photo by taken by a drone camera. Photo: Ragnar Th. Sigurðsson On August 26 CBS posted a news item called: Iceland prepares for “Volcano from Hellâ€. Of course Icelanders (and others) have heard the stories about volcanoes being the gateway to hell before. Hekla, Iceland’s most famous volcano, was thought to house demons that danced around the crater and at Askja, just north of the current eruption, tourists bathe in a crater called Víti, which really means Hell. At the time people were afraid that a sub-glacial eruption might begin at any moment. Let’s go to that item: “This could be the volcano from hell,†said CBS News contributor and City University of New York physics professor Michio Kaku. “To quote Yogi Berra, 'It's deja vu all over again.' Remember the paralysis from four years ago? Millions of passengers being stranded with the threat of airplanes falling from the sky?†“This is not an ordinary volcanic eruption,†he said. “You have fine magmatic dust in the air. It could potentially cut through a glacier--freezing--causing a gasifie,d rocky, pebbly cloud to arise, and that gets in to an engine and chews up the gears, chews up the blades. So this ash coming out is not typical ash. That's why ice volcanoes are more dangerous than typical volcanoes.†Photo: Ragnar Th. Sigurðsson Luckily, we are not there yet. But the pictures shown here, taken by photographer Ragnar Th. Sigurðsson can give you that eerie feeling that Hell is not so far away. http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/10/04/are-we-hell-yet
  18. 2 points
    Tonight's Ecm 12z op run is very unsettled throughout, especially further north, just a weak flat atlantic ridge pushing across the south at the end of next week bringing brief respite before more low pressure piles in from the atlantic, an atlantic which is cranking up during next week. It's a very autumnal pattern with wet & windy spells and occasionally brighter with blustery showers, temperatures much closer to the seasonal average, ranging between just below average in the north / nw and just above in the SE at times. The PFJ is sometimes digging much further south but is then forced north again as pressure rises across mainland europe but the uk is for the most part, a very unsettled zone with lots of rain and sometimes strong winds during the next 10 days and probably beyond, the south / se having the best of any drier, brighter and milder conditions between bouts of unsettled weather.
  19. 2 points
    The next week looks to extend the snow cover in the important below 60 degrees sector. GFS 12z forecast to +192.
  20. 2 points
    Apologies if this has been already posted, but thought it was pretty spectacular. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2779647/GoPro-goes-furnace-Drone-fitted-camera-captures-stunning-footage-volcano-erupting-doesn-t-survive-heat.html
  21. 2 points
    it feels like a big event cos we've had bland rubbish for weeks
  22. 2 points
  23. 2 points
    Impressive positive anomalies on both sides of the Arctic
  24. 2 points
    Ensemble means from GFS,ECM and GEM looking very seasonal as we head towards mid-October with the Atlantic trough running the show,so bouts of wind and rain likely with temperatures around average.
  25. 2 points
    Yes quite a change for the coming week PM,underway now even in the south as the cold front and rain comes through today. Much cooler air following so feeling a lot different down here compared to recent weeks. A look at the fax out towards mid-week shows the cyclonic pattern over us. it looks like we are now sliding towards a much more seasonal Atlantic profile with bands of rain and showers for the next week and beyond with temperatures much closer to normal.
  26. 2 points
    just a brief digression as this chart reminds me of the joy of being on Weather Station Julliet at 52.30n, 20.00 west.
  27. 2 points
    The anomalies tonight are all evolving towards a low pressure dominant Atlantic albeit with a fairly slack pattern. The HP in the west perhaps slipping a tad south. The main difference is the GFS shows little sign of any influence from the HP to the E and SE whereas the ECM certainly pushes it further west so still leaving the door ajar, This perhaps suggested by the different orientation of the jet as the GFS has it much stronger and further south than the ECM. This really still up in the air as at the moment it could resolve into quite a wet unsettled pattern ( probably favourite) or a drier one, in the south especially There is nothing like a bit of fence sitting and covering all the angles.
  28. 2 points
    I'll be moving into a property tomorrow where the heating bills are included in the rent, so as soon as it gets a bit nippy it's going on
  29. 2 points
    Hello FU Berlin site, long time no see...
  30. 1 point
  31. 1 point
    I'm hoping the atlantic isn't so grumpy this autumn and we get more northerlies and eventually easterlies!! :cold:
  32. 1 point
    Feels pretty chilly this evening... a nice crisp change after that monster deluge. Airmass RGB from Satellite image depicts the colder air pouring in, some places down below freezing overnight too. Jet painting a nice picture too in tonight's GFS run.
  33. 1 point
    Yeah me too, they survived 1946/47 just after the war with rationing still in effect so we could too in this day and age.
  34. 1 point
  35. 1 point
    On a sidenote for interesting weather.. As the next system on Sun/Mon moves away, cold ELT's move in behind- perhaps cold enough for hail production, so Mon night in to Tues could see some thunder & lightning around the west country and southern counties.
  36. 1 point
    The met office have issued early warnings. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1412550000
  37. 1 point
    It is a very remarkable streak, impressive to say the least. Simon has also become the 14th hurricane in total (or 13 if one excludes Genevieve, which became a hurricane in the central Pacific). If Simon would end up to become a major hurricane (and yes, if it does so it has definitely been an overachiever ), it would become the 9th major hurricane in this season (including Genevieve). This would mean this hurricane season is one major hurricane shy of equalizing the record of the most amount of major hurricanes to have ever formed in any Eastern Pacific hurricane season since 1949. It has to be noted that this is still speculation, though. Meanwhile, Simon continues to steadily intensify, with conditions being extremely favorable for development, as noted by Somerset Squall. However, in the latest discussion (as of 09:00 UTC) the NHC noted that: "the eye of Simon was open in the northwest quadrant", meaning that the inner core of the storm is not yet very well organized, decreasing the likehood of rapid intensification. This can also be seen in MIMIC TC imagery from CIMSS: CIMSS MIMIC imagery of Simon in the last 24 hours. Note that the image auto-updates itself. What can be seen is, as of 11:00 UTC, the inner core of Simon has become much better organized during the past few hours, with the eyewall (indicated by the red colours) attaining a more circular pattern. However, on the last few frames, it also becomes evident that the eyewall is weakly defined or nonexistent in the eastern and northeastern quadrants (shown by the absence of red colours in that area). As a result, rapid intensification might be delayed some or not occur at all, if this gap remains in place. Still, if the eyewall would be able to close off anytime in the next 24-36 hr, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_hurricane_season http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_19E/webManager/mainpage.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/040856.shtml
  38. 1 point
    Nothing special down here. Bit of rain and breeze overnight and earlier this morning and now clearing up from the west. Big hype over nothing really.
  39. 1 point
    Simon has strengthened overnight, and is now a 75kt category 1 hurricane. This is the 11th consecutive named storm to become a hurricane in the East Pacific this year, which shatters the previous record of 8 in 1992. Simon isn't done with it's intensification it seems. The system has a very small eye emerging from the solid central dense overcast. Shear is virtually non-existant, outflow is excellent and waters are warm with high oceanic heat content. Therefore, NHC forecast a peak of 95kts, though there is a chance that Simon could become a major hurricane (100kt+ winds). Simon has about another 24hrs if it's going to do this.
  40. 1 point
    and there are some quakes still occuring and the one at 00,20 looks around 3 but lack of updates now and i have work tomorrow so im off to bed nite all
  41. 1 point
    There are various waves running along it. This isn't your typical CF I don't think. If this develops a squall it could be very noteworthy in some places.
  42. 1 point
  43. 1 point
    This year North America is certainly demonstrating it has a wide variety of weather in September as it moves from summer to winter. This year from early month cold to record breaking heat in the plains on 25th/26th September and finally the start of winter cold descending on the Rockies at the end of the month. Here's a wonderful photo of Vail on 30th Sept 2014 showing the colours of Autumn and early season snowfall:
  44. 1 point
    ...ECM also now similar to GFS in not modelling the LP at D10. This morning's run: Tonight: So some continuity between the main two models for a quieter period after D5 for some. After D10 the GEFS for London show continued uncertainty and more runs needed: The forecast AO moves from negative towards neutral during this slack period but appears to go negative again straight away so a further attack from the NW looking likely around D12 and where the UK falls within that pattern is what the GEFS are struggling with:
  45. 1 point
    An early start to winter would do me a la 2010....provided it carries on until March! Come on, I'm not asking for much! Nov-Dec 2010 with a Jan-Mar 2013 following
  46. 1 point
    Late Breaking News people. as long as the reanalysis charts are Available on Nov 30th I will be releasing a forecast for Winter. In terms of the OPI it will be covered. These legends are KEY to remember. Junior AO months are winter months with an average index -1.0 Super AO months are Winter months with an average index -2.0 This Winter is going to be a STRONG Negative QBO Winter & relating to that based on the OPI graph we find the following. with an OPI index or -0.4 or Above there is nearly a 100% chance you will not see a Winter with a Junior or Super AO. with an OPI Index from -0.5 to -1.5 you have nearly a 100% chance of seeing a Junior AO month ( possibly 2), & around a 40% chance of seeing a Super AO month With an OPI index below -1.5 there is nearly 100% chance you will see a Super AO & at least X2 junior AOs. In a nutshell, an OPI over -0.4 & you can forget a good blocked Winter, below that -pref below -1 & your odds on at least 1 very blocked Month.. S
  47. 1 point
  48. 1 point
    Howling southerly gale tonight and currently14.1c. Put cows and calves onto 4 inches of fresh grass in a new field today quite sureal for October when we are normally running out of grass.
  49. 1 point
    Because I think (so that is my view) if he has a problem with, or if he thinks he's found a major flaw in, our understanding of how radiation behaves in/through and under the atmosphere he needs to convince those who write the textbooks not those who read them!
  50. 1 point
    Careful not to say that too often in the coming months. That's verging on pitchfork mob territory!
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