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Showing most liked content on 04/10/14 in all areas

  1. 6 likes
    Well we had the wettist winter on record. Next i personally would like to see the snowest winter on record.
  2. 4 likes
    Meridional Jet is the best thing around the charts this evening. Quite a rapid switch from late summer into oblique, dark, grey morning Autumn. Just seeing something this N-S is a pleasure compared to the endless charts of Zonal Assault last year. Overnight minima spilling below zero on NMM4 - shameless promotion of Netweather Extra 4km model here, great detail. From Eumetsat and alluded to earlier via yrno sat image the cold airmass completely evident in Red. We have some sub 510d air on tonights ECM analysis. At 144 we have the Polar Vortex right on bulls eye as perfect as it could be painted as an Autumn precursor to winter and eyes forward for the season, also the starting pistol of the Aleutian Low in place for that stratospheric kick start. Enjoyable model output as we move from what is a truly anomalous Sept. into 'traditional' Autumn. GLAAM in Nina state where other factors tell a different story, that South Pacific HP cell mixing things up ( thanks Ant for highlighting). September 2013 and 2014 for comparison gives a very basic indication that a different Autumn > Winter will emerge Different ride this winter...all aboard..
  3. 4 likes
    The GFS 00z op run shows the uk within an expanding bubble of low pressure through next week with bands of stronger winds and rain occasionally pushing north and east across the uk but there are some suckers gaps of fine weather between the rain and showers so there will be spells of sunshine too but don't rely on it lasting. Next week also looks on the chilly side compared to the warmth of this autumn so far, temperatures close to where they should be during early / mid october with the northwest of the uk a little below average and the south / southeast a little above. The overall theme of this run is unsettled but during low res there are brief flat atlantic ridges separating us from the next vigorous depression, indeed the atlantic looks very fired up through low res and as the euro high becomes stronger by the end of the run, the uk is in a zone of gale force sw'ly winds with very tight isobars, very moist and mild tropical air by then with lots of rain for the uk.
  4. 3 likes
    Really no change in the output, traditional autumn weather at last from both ecm and gfs......
  5. 3 likes
    Wow... what an image, shows the cold front clearing the east coast now... look out to the atlantic though...polar maritime against tropical maritme (cold versus warm) love the way it shows exactly where the jet stream is flowing , ( the little gap between low and high) where the two collide will make it very wet and windy , Ireland and West coast regions look likely targets, the gfs is showing a pretty potent front developing from sunday into monday for the uk , a very wet and windy scenario.
  6. 3 likes
    This is what I like about early / mid october...the Gfs 06z op run shows cold 528 dam thicknesses pushing south towards scotland and we also have the warm 564 dam pushing north towards southern england, so on the one hand the far north could have snow showers on high ground and the south of england could end up having a mid october BBQ. There is a nice end to this run but overall the high res is very unsettled with lots of strong winds and rain, especially for the north then turning colder in the north with night frosts and a risk of snow on the highest hills / mountains of scotland.
  7. 3 likes
    Some very strong south to south easterly winds moving in to the west during the early hours of Monday morning with gusts around 60-70mph and perhaps even higher for the Western Isles with a risk of storm force winds, accompanied by some heavy rainfall.
  8. 3 likes
    Morning all, GFS & ECMWF Continue the cool/wet and unsettled theme through-out the run, With Lows driving in of the Atlantic on a pretty strong Jet Stream over, Or just South of the UK.
  9. 2 likes
    I would think public opinion will upgrade from supporting action to "Go and eradicate them and do whatever is necessary!"
  10. 2 likes
    Apologies if this has been already posted, but thought it was pretty spectacular. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2779647/GoPro-goes-furnace-Drone-fitted-camera-captures-stunning-footage-volcano-erupting-doesn-t-survive-heat.html
  11. 2 likes
    it feels like a big event cos we've had bland rubbish for weeks
  12. 2 likes
  13. 2 likes
    Ensemble means from GFS,ECM and GEM looking very seasonal as we head towards mid-October with the Atlantic trough running the show,so bouts of wind and rain likely with temperatures around average.
  14. 2 likes
    just a brief digression as this chart reminds me of the joy of being on Weather Station Julliet at 52.30n, 20.00 west.
  15. 2 likes
    Predictably, Alan Henning has been killed, by the IS scum. I personally think he was as good as dead, as soon as he was captured, if we couldn't rescue him. These nihilistic barbarians need to be pulverised to dust imo. and I'd be personally very glad if every 'Brit' who has gone to the Middle East to fight for their 'cause' would be swiftly despatched from above - every last one.
  16. 2 likes
    The anomalies tonight are all evolving towards a low pressure dominant Atlantic albeit with a fairly slack pattern. The HP in the west perhaps slipping a tad south. The main difference is the GFS shows little sign of any influence from the HP to the E and SE whereas the ECM certainly pushes it further west so still leaving the door ajar, This perhaps suggested by the different orientation of the jet as the GFS has it much stronger and further south than the ECM. This really still up in the air as at the moment it could resolve into quite a wet unsettled pattern ( probably favourite) or a drier one, in the south especially There is nothing like a bit of fence sitting and covering all the angles.
  17. 2 likes
    I'll be moving into a property tomorrow where the heating bills are included in the rent, so as soon as it gets a bit nippy it's going on
  18. 1 like
    Clear night, wind has died and there is a nice moon. Will expect our first frost tomorrow am if it stays this way
  19. 1 like
  20. 1 like
    I'm hoping the atlantic isn't so grumpy this autumn and we get more northerlies and eventually easterlies!! :cold:
  21. 1 like
    So much of the slow intensification that was anticipated. An eye has become very well defined and a circular, albeit slightly ragged, eyewall has developed. This is illustrated in the Dvorak satellite loop below: Dvorak satellite loop of Simon. Also note the vigorous outflow to the north of the system, while some outflow is also evident on the western and southern portion of the system. Given the current satellite presentation, as well as the intensity estimate from the NHC, it seems imminent that Simon becomes the ninth major hurricane of the season. Source: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-112.45,26.47,1024 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
  22. 1 like
    I want to see snow so deep it comes up to my knees, the type of depth that buries hedges.....and not just over elevated ground (like March 2013). You may laugh considering I live at such a low elevation but the historical records suggest that we have had snow that deep even here before. So it is possible. The maximum snow depth I've ever encountered is about 10cm. At the end of December 1962, Keele uni had 45cm of level snow, even Manchester City Centre had 15cm of snow lying. There were drifts 15 feet deep in some places of the west. Imagine that!
  23. 1 like
    Yeah me too, they survived 1946/47 just after the war with rationing still in effect so we could too in this day and age.
  24. 1 like
    Just hope we don't experience a winter like 2013-14 with all that rain and strong winds from mid Nov to end of Jan.Feb and March were pretty pleasant down this neck of the woods which allowed the drying process.With it looking like a weak El Nino setting up the probability of last winter repeating itself are lower and I hope for a December 2010(unlikely I know!!) followed by cold spells in Jan and Feb with heavy snowfalls and Spring arriving in early March. Time will tell what we get and I look forward to visiting the forums when snow is in the forecast and this place goes bonkers lol!!
  25. 1 like
    I noticed that the BBC had the lightning symbol for some on Tuesday but have since removed it. Hopefully the potential is still there. I would think you're in a good spot for autumn thunderstorms with the warm SSTs playing their part.
  26. 1 like
    The magniude 5 quake was only at 0.9 depth. ie about sea level. I think this the shallowest of all the quakes of mag 5 and above. could be an indication that the walls are coming under strain MIA Sorry STEVE B you beat me to it.
  27. 1 like
    The met office have issued early warnings. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1412550000
  28. 1 like
    Probably rained more last 24 hours than it did the whole of september (and seems there's much more rain to come too)
  29. 1 like
    Yes, definite switch to Autumn this week, as reflected in the max temp readings at Leuchars: Sun 20c Mon 20c Tue 21c Wed 17c Thu 16c Fri 15c Sat 9c @ 1200 hrs It's 8.4c in my back garden, fire is lit!
  30. 1 like
    Specifically with Longannet a significant amount of money, time and research was put into Carbon Capture and Storage on the belief that the UK Government was going to invest £1billion into it. Needless to say this went the same way as the preparations for converting party of Hydro Electric's Peterhead Gas station to Hydrogen and fitting Carbon Capture on the rest of it, a project that had supposedly secured this £1b pot that the UK government has dangled for over a decade now. The Peterhead scheme collapsed after the funding was pulled by the Labour UK government following the SNP winning the 2007 Scottish Election, hard not to be cynical about that because if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it most likely is a duck!
  31. 1 like
    A coherent energy strategy is linked to viability by definition. Lack of coherence has put us where are now. Even the new nuclear station has to be financed by the French for which they get a guaranteed electricity price for 30 years at double the current rate. WWF is hardly to blame for that.
  32. 1 like
    Simon has strengthened overnight, and is now a 75kt category 1 hurricane. This is the 11th consecutive named storm to become a hurricane in the East Pacific this year, which shatters the previous record of 8 in 1992. Simon isn't done with it's intensification it seems. The system has a very small eye emerging from the solid central dense overcast. Shear is virtually non-existant, outflow is excellent and waters are warm with high oceanic heat content. Therefore, NHC forecast a peak of 95kts, though there is a chance that Simon could become a major hurricane (100kt+ winds). Simon has about another 24hrs if it's going to do this.
  33. 1 like
    Not too unsettled on GFS for the SE as total rainfall suggests. Total after 3 days: After 8 days: Still looking like a lull for 5-7 days after the LP moves away Tuesday/Wednesday. The GEFS rainfall mean has just nominal amounts from D5 for London: Last night's 8-14 day now trending the surface low anomaly more to the west with the UK in the flow between lower and higher heights (though low confidence mentioned in the prognostic discussion): Difficult to know the surface conditions for a setup like this at this range. ECM at D9 continues it's flip flopping and now has a LP system for the South: Though GEM at D9: and GFS at D9: Do indicate that the models remain uncertain re surface conditions around that time scale so its a case of take your pick.
  34. 1 like
    There are various waves running along it. This isn't your typical CF I don't think. If this develops a squall it could be very noteworthy in some places.
  35. 1 like
    To be honest SS, given the complete distrust for the Westminster leaders to stand up for Scotland's interests, why did we still vote No to keep them in charge? Confused.com
  36. 1 like
  37. 1 like
    This year North America is certainly demonstrating it has a wide variety of weather in September as it moves from summer to winter. This year from early month cold to record breaking heat in the plains on 25th/26th September and finally the start of winter cold descending on the Rockies at the end of the month. Here's a wonderful photo of Vail on 30th Sept 2014 showing the colours of Autumn and early season snowfall:
  38. 1 like
    Worth a read: http://danieldwilliam.livejournal.com/111197.html "In the wake of #IndyRef I’ve seen many suggestions that Scottish Labour are dead and that the SNP will win a majority of seats of Westminster seats in the 2015 General Election. I don’t think the end has come for Scottish Labour. I think Scottish Labour is in long term decline with an existential threat. Nothing that is acceptable to them will repair their situation. The end is nigh-ish. . . . ."
  39. 1 like
    ...ECM also now similar to GFS in not modelling the LP at D10. This morning's run: Tonight: So some continuity between the main two models for a quieter period after D5 for some. After D10 the GEFS for London show continued uncertainty and more runs needed: The forecast AO moves from negative towards neutral during this slack period but appears to go negative again straight away so a further attack from the NW looking likely around D12 and where the UK falls within that pattern is what the GEFS are struggling with:
  40. 1 like
    That's actually a real headline article.
  41. 1 like
    You can now have your say to the Smith Commission on further powers to the Scottish Parliament: http://www.smith-commission.scot/news/say-submitting-ideas-views-proposals-commission-03-october-2014/ In the attached guidelines it asks those submitting their views on further powers to consider: You can submit your views by email or in writing at present, website states that you will also be able to do so through the website from Monday 13th October.
  42. 1 like
    Heating? I haven't stopped opening the windows yet Another day, another drive home in warm summer like sunshine with the windows of the car down.
  43. 1 like
    thank goodness for Cakie, some sensible dialogue in this thread for a change! Hope you well, over there in the foreign climes
  44. 1 like
    Such a shame that we were forced to give it back. The people of Hong Kong are paying the price for our decline.
  45. 1 like
    People are far too hard on the UK. We are not overcrowded (try driving between London and Nottingham), the cost of living is high and needs addressing but it's hardly terminal. Even the number of people in true poverty (no home, can't eat) is less than 1% of the population. Most of the population is employed, we have a tonne of countryside and we are one of the best places to live in the world on a whole load of metrics.
  46. 1 like
    Late Breaking News people. as long as the reanalysis charts are Available on Nov 30th I will be releasing a forecast for Winter. In terms of the OPI it will be covered. These legends are KEY to remember. Junior AO months are winter months with an average index -1.0 Super AO months are Winter months with an average index -2.0 This Winter is going to be a STRONG Negative QBO Winter & relating to that based on the OPI graph we find the following. with an OPI index or -0.4 or Above there is nearly a 100% chance you will not see a Winter with a Junior or Super AO. with an OPI Index from -0.5 to -1.5 you have nearly a 100% chance of seeing a Junior AO month ( possibly 2), & around a 40% chance of seeing a Super AO month With an OPI index below -1.5 there is nearly 100% chance you will see a Super AO & at least X2 junior AOs. In a nutshell, an OPI over -0.4 & you can forget a good blocked Winter, below that -pref below -1 & your odds on at least 1 very blocked Month.. S
  47. 1 like
    Of course. If you cripple their power sources, their water distribution ect.. then you have far more chance of complete victory.
  48. 1 like
    I'm hoping it is just part of the normal transition into autumn that takes place every year and will eventually be replaced by a more wintry weather pattern by the middle of November! A repeat of last winter would be a disaster!
  49. 1 like
    What is an Al Gore type 'project'? And for 4wd to talk of smear campaigns definitely ends any chance of the return of satire.
  50. 1 like
    What ever happened to Acker bilk ????..
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