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We have a pattern change upstream and all models agree on this. A vortex is sinking into the US around D7 and this will amplify this part of the NH and send waves downstream: A weak Atlantic ridge will build in front of the US trough and push the current Atlantic trough towards the UK. GEM as it normally does makes more of the Atlantic ridge and cuts off the trough allowing the Scandi ridge to retrogress to the north of the UK for a tentative link with the Atlantic ridge: GEM: GFS: GFS currently does not on the op, although there are a cluster in the GEFS going this way. That US vortex will then spill east and what happens with the Atlantic trough, cut off low will determine the initial mid-late September's weather. GFS has the op sending that US vortex energy into a UK trough whilst GEM has the jet further north with the energy transported to our north. We still have the cut off low to the SW on the GEM but it is not being fuelled by the Atlantic so it is more showery compared to the washout FI GFS op. Just to make it interesting ECM is caught between the two at D9: A few more runs needed to see which direction this change will take.

Some very unsettled/cool charts showing out in the run this morning, With Hight's pushing up into Greenland.

Netweather exclusive Gotcha 2 yes 2 plumes....... May be not we will see I think Jon was right The hottest clouds around... https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/ Ther is a slight chance that events might have caught up with the webcams, like a shock wave. Only slight, but worth mentioning. NASA pic :- Thanks for that, pals. ATM At the moment 1941 UK

I am never sure whether to laugh or cry when threads start to get personal. Come on folks we all have an opinion, just leave it at that, your opinion and respect others may differ rather than making petty arguments. Some of you sound like spoilt 7 years olds.

Scenes like this would be welcome again!

For most high pressure continues to dominate on UKMO though into next week winds begin to come in from an east to SE'ly direction so the far south west could become more prone to some rain but else where its shown to remain dry and relatively warm by day

you cheeky sod, not sure if my dad was even born on that date!

I'm hoping for a repeat of December 2010. 40cms of snow in the garden - so deep the Mother-in-Law couldn't make it for Christmas.....*sob*

arguing is good as long as it doesn't go on for too long. how anybody can complain about the weather we are having atm baffles me, we had a mild autumn last year, a mild winter albeit wet, a mild spring, a warm summer and now autumn has started warm as well Edit plus we had a warm summer last year as well

heres another good video i chuckled at the start of it

The beautiful late summer, early Autumn weather is with us for about another week! But at long last and gfs and ecm agree on a change during early next week with pressure falling and unsettled conditions developing from the south next week, ......The North will see the fine weather for the longest.....

They will be back unless there has been above a 4, although, shockwaves can be damaging for miles in a VE 1... Prob some generator packed up, maybe...10% outsider... Gross outside chance aurora effect stirs magma up LOL John P. I will get my coat... Truth be told, the aurora and the rifting may well be influenced by the same group of things that are always going on. Science disagrees unless it is buried in truth sometimes, no hunches and beliefs allowed, for our "health and safety"

GFS again continues with cooler/unsettled weather from just around mid-month. Not to the extremes of the 00z by a long way, But the theme is still there, And that's all it is atm.

http://vimeo.com/105309710 a few days old but good none the less

For sure - the season of proper darkness and cold is over in the blink of an eye, yet many on here moan and wail about summer not lasting long enough. Sheesh - I don't know how they've got the cheek! It's the same with those folk who exclaim "it's raining again", when in reality it hasn't rained for weeks. Imagine if it really rained for weeks on end without a glimmer of sun, regularly? I'd love that and be laughing all the way, whilst most everyone else would be on medication.

I would really love a repeat of December 2010 that then goes on to last through much of January, February and early March! I don't think I could cope with a repeat of last year. We had about 2 frosts and absolutely no snow here, not even a flake! Great to see these threads up and running so early and with all the usual suspects already commenting. Really not sure what will be in store for 2014/15 but like everyone on here will certainly enjoy the build up and anticipation. Fingers crossed for a belter - I reckon we are long over due a really cold Jan / Feb, so perhaps 2015 could be the year!

One thing is a racing certainty in these threads in the coming months. The term 'polar vortex' will be used at least once every two sentences.

Yes, a breakdown from the south next week is a good bet, could become very warm and humid for a time too..more like summer than autumn me thinks.

Looks like the arctic "freeze" is gaining momentum. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-starts-building-military-bases-in-the-arctic/506650.html

I Wonder what it feels like to experience September weather that feels like the beginning of winter. The chart below was before my time, perhaps if John Holmes is online he would be kind enough to enlighten us on what it felt like.

fine, warm and sunny sums up today. A perfect early autumn day

This summerlike weather can last as long as its able to as far as im concerned. Anything to prolong the pleasant comfortable time of year. Im off camping 20/21st of the month and ive got everything crossed that the fine weather holds. If it does than it would still feel like summer, minus the light evenings, and would make up for the rather chilly weekend camping in August.

Lol, 1 mile high waves in the Atlantic.....good old GFS BFTP

Its a very static picture under a proper blocking high - not had one of these for a long long time, hence expect only a very slow gradual change to unsettled conditions - most likely through next week and unusually from the south. ECM and GFS latching onto the cut off low over Spain drifting north as the central core of the high elongates on a more N-S axis as opposed to w-e which we will see in the next week. All eyes will then be on developments with the Jetstream - heights could very easily collapse into central Europe or remain stubborn but be given a path towards Iceland.. mmm lots of options, but there is certainly no strong signal for an attacking jet anytime soon. September can be exceptionally benign, but this year it seems more benign than ever - could end up being a notably dry month for many (we've had barely a sprinkle so far, and the next 7 days look bone dry). As others have said - if this was January we would be in the freezer. Indeed such synoptics even in 6 weeks time would be delivering preety cold conditions off an increasingly cold continent, alas we are just on the right side of the season for such synoptics to deliver warmer than average conditions as the continent has yet to cool down properly. Mind nights have been properly cold for the time of year in sheltered western parts, many a colder night than last winter in recent days, with lows in the countryside regularly between 1 and 5 degrees under clear skies, and its not a classic warm set up for the time of year neither, but very pleasant all the same. For me I'm only taking occasional cursory glances at the models at the moment - there are certain times when you just know things will be slow to change and this is one of them.. we don't get them often mind.. but they do often occur at this of year it seems more than ever.

hi lovesnow really hard call that i would think unlikely but again its a watch and see

https://twitter.com/dyngjujokull?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fvolcanocafe.wordpress.com%2F2014%2F09%2F09%2Fred-skies-over-holuhraun%2F&tw_i=509374016541716480&tw_p=tweetembed Love this... The absence of quakes means lava is flowing freely from Bada, the rift will swallow lots, all that is left comes out of the fissure. The caldera gets lower as long as this happens, tick tock. It is hard to just stop something this big. The 80 odd square KM caldera area is but a small part. Do we matter in this no, we are not in the process. Eeeek. I feel totally insignificant and powerless. I am still going for a NE flank collapse, right in to the fissure, VE 6+, bad disruption etc, news bad etc...I have upped it to a 6+ from a plain 6...I have a feeling the rifting lets go irreversibly once started, and we started rifting ages ago...The long haul, with occasional volcanoes that erupt whilst the fissure erupts, that sort of long haul.

What is fascinating about this eruption is that it is creating its own micro climate. Radar and satellite show the persistent high reflectivity over the area. http://en.vedur.is/weather/observations/radar/#type=radare

And 2 twisters, Kelvin Helmholtz clouds in the back ground, what a view.. OMG

Technically, that is summer...........and no misrepresentation there!

I really think we could see mid 20's celsius across southern uk during next week with +10 T850 hPa from the continent making inroads, at the same time pressure falls from the south with an increasing risk of showers, some heavy and thundery, this time it's the GEFS 12z mean showing a warm up, I think it's been showing enough times now on various output to give it a good chance of verifying once the scandi high pushes away to the east and the trough arrives from the southwest / south enabling the much warmer and more humid continental air mass to drift north.

I'd really like to experience a winter ...." Like what there was when I was a boy" I seem to remember some absolute stonking winters in the early 80s...though I've no pictures I recall weeks recurrent heavy ,snowy spells....blizzards...thunder/ lightning and snow together.......huge drifts where we couldn't even get out our back door.....swirling drifts to the roof of the garage....the snowplough getting stuck outside our house cause there was so much snow!!! So,I'll have a bit of that please..if it's not too much to ask. To summarise: lots of â„â„..so I can build some of these⛄⛄....I'd rather not have too much of this☔☔ And a repeat of last winter? Well that'll be a pile of💩💩

I don't like posting charts so far out but I must admit, T+384 hours is looking autumnal on the Gfs 06z op run. Most of the run ( all high res and well into low res) is anticyclonic but eventually the atlantic starts to fire up and send vigorous depressions our way although they struggle to break through the block..but in the end they win with the polar front jet getting to the south of the BI with cool, windy and unsettled weather for all.

And, the evidence for that particular accusation of scientific fraud is where, precisely?? Or are we being surreptitiously directed back toward that laughable climategate malarkey...? It disnae matter how many time one repeats a lie: it is still a lie!

even worse when joe public moan about snow as if it's a regular occurrence when in reality it snows like once or twice a year, i admit we might only see 30c+ once or twice a year but 25c is more than hot enough anyway, and 20c is plenty warm enough

Aye, ah admire a man that's proud of his ample Plums HC. It just show what a decent Summer and early Autumn can do for your soft fruits eh! Big Innes

Not mine, appreciating its mellow warmth a prelude to the rains and winds that sure as eggs will follow.

It's getting there, but tedium is starting to set in.What I'd really like to see right now is a good ol' rain and wind storm.

So because you work outdoors what you say goes?! Lots of people have outdoor jobs and many of them will still feel its summery. Was last month Autumn then as the weather was colder, duller and wetter than what we have had lately? What a strange world you live in. Yesterday I was outside all day, I was still just wearing a t-shirt and shorts when I took the dog out for her late walk at 9pm. You are a pessimistic person, your posts show that, but it is difficult to argue it is anything but summer like weather currently.

its a very interesting start to autumn and nice to here the omega block being used, last time i herd the omega block term used was 09/10 autumn into winter. some pretty impressive warmth possible if the gem and ecm are to be correct. its looking very promising so far for later autumn into early winter if this kind of pattern holds firm. although this is a long way of in terms of weather.

I'm really liking this weather at the moment. Cool, misty mornings and not too warm days. Nice.

The GEFS 00z mean shows no sign of a chink in the anticyclonic armor until early next week, indeed, the high intensifies later this week and the fine and warm weather continues throughout next weekend, the far north stays settled until the end of next week but for most of the uk, next week shows a gradual descent into more unsettled weather from the south as the scandi high drifts away further east and a trough pushes north from france bringing warmer and increasingly humid air with showers becoming heavy and widespread with thunder but with sunny periods too, temperatures by early next week could be into the mid 20's celsius across southern uk, nearer low 20's c further north.

Lovely clear start here, should be another lovely day with high pressure slap bang over the UK.

The GEM this morning is the first to suggest that a potential breakdown could fail This comes from the low near iberia deepening earlier than in previous runs and allows the high over Scandinavia to start backing west again. UKMO also sees this idea GFS is slower, but again the pattern struggles to break down with low pressure becoming cut off again. The GFS ens are showing that the Atlantic will struggle with the prefered patter being heights to the north and low pressure to the south, even out to day 10 and possibly beyond. Whilst this time period was ear marked for a breakdown, I would not be surprised if the breakdown just simply doesn't happen. Just like the FI breakdown which was mentioned for this week.

Well spotted Knocker. Thanks to this model thread and posts such as yours I've enjoyed the learning experience of how these tropical storms impact the UK weather. We had ex-Bertha parking itself to the NE of the UK and being largely responsible for bringing us a disappointing August. ex-Cristobal ran further north and arguably helped usher in the settled weather we've been enjoying of late. And now the models are suggesting that (in FI) another ex-tropical storm will maybe be the catalyst that allows the Atlantic to finally break through with a vengeance. Here's some charts showing how this might happen. First today's Atlantic chart from the US NHC showing the fledgling storm and in their view with a >50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. Today's GFS 12z picks up the storm and shows it entering stage left on Saturday 20th Sept. Finally by Wed 24th Sept a direct hit on the UK. A long way to go and with the fickle nature of tropical storms, it will no doubt end up differently. But an interesting one to watch.

In the naughties, I would always be happy with a couple of inches of snow but since the return of the mid 80s winters on the 1st Feb 2009, the bar has been raised and the only thing that floats my boat nowadays is an absolute belting, preferably a complete crippler

ECMWF 12z slower w/91L development but still gets to 960-mb by Day 9 as it recurves out to sea. WMO-MSLP: pic.twitter.com/kiNVqPIU2x

The long way to unsettled weather looks likely next week, but before then some fine Autumnal weather to be had........

The ash bit is quite straightforward, it is the gas bit, Icelandic rifting fissure type eruptions are totally different in this respect, they contain high concentrations of the worst gasses, unlike St Helens, which was much kinder with the gas output. Its the build up that is worrying, if it gets around the Northern Hemisphere it stays and just builds up if the fissure keeps spewing it out. Today the plume from the fissure has got thicker and more poisonous I think. I think Jon will have thought it through before he pressed the mouse clicker, like you say he is usually right not often wrong with Icelandic volcanoes. Looks like some ash from the fissure on Mila 1 it has been seen by scientists over the past few days out of one of the vents, looks like it is back. Nice gallery http://www.ruv.is/frett/holuhraun-eruption-picture-gallery Especially the Askja shot. RE the possible fissure eruption under the ice, if it is nearer to Bada, it should I think have more eruptive pressure behind it, emphasis I think. The flow in the river center Bada 1 has increased I think more water vapor visible Fresh quakes on the way. Local to DYN station maybe interference not sure they are not on the drums. Bada 2 looks a ghastly color. White van man, mean looking passion wagon that... Quote IMO:- 8th September 2014 19:20 - from geoscientist on duty The earthquake activity today continues at the northern part of the dyke intrusion. The largest earthquake in the dyke since the end of August occurred at 16:27 today with magnitude 4.5. The largest earthquakes located today at the caldera rim: kl. 06:15, M 4,8 kl. 07:20 M 4, 6 kl. 14:48, M 5,0 kl. 17:53, M 4,3 An earthquake swarm is taking place north of Herðubreið. About 80 earthquakes have been recorded today, all below magnitude 2. Swarms in this area are not uncommon. Due to high concentration of SO2, scientists are leaving the area. End of Quote... north of Herðubreið :- Only the bottom 3 checked to 90% no 99% as yet. The person by the van on Mila 1 has just waved at the camera and has been acting daft for us aswell Big one on its way looks like a 5. Make that a 4 @21:21 UK

http://vimeo.com/105277259 not sure if this has been posted sort of gives a better idea how big an area this is