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  1. 5 likes
    Some pretty bad quality lightning stills, the last one is from a CG, couldnt manage to get the bolt when pausing the video.
  2. 4 likes
    This 'open-letter' writing to the Scottish electorate is reminiscent of the 2004 US Presidential election, when that bastion of the left, the Guardian organised an intervention pleading with the electorate of Clark County to not for vote Bush. That went well... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/13/uselections2004.usa11 http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/27/1098667836946.html
  3. 4 likes
    I must confess that I am finding all the forecast dithering over the fate of ex-hurricane Bertha rather baffling. Admittedly, forecasting potential storm tracks this time of year is somewhat difficult, owing to the lower jet speed. Yet, as I see it, the case for Bertha turning into quite a potent storm looks quite compelling. For an ex met observer I find this a rather surprising comment. The immense technical problem this kind of thing throws up has yet to be solved in any computer model. So 'dithering' is hardly the right word I would say. Uncertainty, yes, and perfectly understandable. This morning the 3 main models are still no in agreement although returning to basics may be called for if they still have not got very close agreement by the 12z output this afternoon. At least the models now have a good fix on its position since it turned into an ex tropical storm over the last 12 hours, so surface and upper air details should become less problematical from now on.
  4. 3 likes
    I hope so as well. I do understand your fustrations, and if we do part ways, I won't blame the Scottish people, as it would also be like blaming my father. In the end of the day I will be blaming Westminister and our political system. The trouble is the people of the rUK are like sheep, and don't seem to have any interest or desire to reform their political system, parliament or having a written constitution. I do hope in the event of this referendum, regardless of the result, that the people realise this situation cannot continue and try to change things. One thing I do definately agree with you is that having 200 celebrities signing a letter won't make certain or win a No vote in the referendum. Celebrity cultre is part of the problem in this country not the solution.
  5. 3 likes
    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80662-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-regional-weather-chat/?p=3020078 Don't let the mods see you say that, they'll give you one of those cool warning points
  6. 3 likes
    I think that in an event of a Yes vote (still a big if) in this referendum, I think it only fair that the rest of the UK should have a referendum on whether they should let Scotland into a currency union. I think its best for the people of the rest of the UK to decide, as this is an issue that effects the 58 million other people in the rest of the UK. I don't think the Scottish nationalists would object to the people of the rest of the UK in having a decision on this matter, after quite rightly being allowed to have a decision on whether they want to become independent???
  7. 3 likes
    Almost constant loud thunder here and few flashes has been rumbling for last 45 minutes so slow moving But no rain at all may I add
  8. 3 likes
    BBC and Met Office seem keen to break out thundery showers across the middle slice of the UK today, pushing east during the latter part of the day and clearing the east coast overnight. However, Estofex clearly not in agreement as only Ireland and Western Scotland in with a chance; the15% risk covers these areas, but I will come onto this shortly. NMM shows an increase in lapse rates this afternoon across a swathe of England: Lapse rates then increase over the SE quarter later this evening and first part of the night, although the NMM model has all precipitation moved off to the NE by this time. GFS and NMM agree on some 300-500j/kg of CAPE, so not a huge amount but should be enough to promote some storm activity this afternoon - GFS chart below: An interest for me is the existence of convergence zones, which could focus the heavy downpours. These are quite numerous across NW England this afternoon and then across N England and eventually NE England this evening, which ties in well with the Met Office prediction. Euro4 precipitation looks interesting, but will it be thundery? Estofex thoughts (or lack of) may be down to the fact that although there will be storms around they will not be especially electrically active as CAPE/instability is rather limited. What is not limited though is the amount of moisture, with some high PWAT levels this afternoon. Given this and the slow moving nature of showers this could mean a lot of water falling in some places over a space of time. My thoughts on today are that there will be some heavy showers and thunderstorms. It's hard to pin down a highest risk area but I would say draw a line from around west London to SW Scotland and anywhere east of this. As mentioned, storms that do occur will have the potential to produce torrential downpours and the combination of slow moving downpours and merging over convergence zones may lead to a risk of flooding. Storms could just about bring a risk of hail and CG lightning, although I think the risk of these is lower and today maybe more about rain than other storm aspects with only sporadic lightning.
  9. 3 likes
    Just think if US and Tony Blah Blah hadn't destabilized the middle east. Todays headline USA and Britain sign new deal with Saddam Hussain to ship tanks to help in his fight against islamic extremists ISIS. Galloway blasts the aid as war on Islam and Americans and American will not be welcome in Bradford. Back to reality America is going to launch air strikes if Isis advance and threaten American interests. It may also launch strikes to help civilians trapped on a mountain Mount Sinjar. In the meantime Hamas have resumed it's rocket attacks on Israel.
  10. 3 likes
    I don't really understand why anyone wants to stay in this union under Westminsters powers and be in support of a government that goes to war or hands out arms to groups to help over throw dictatorships around the world yet still wants to hold us under a dictatorship where they wont let the political party that we fairly elected to our parliament through a lawful democratic process to have full powers over our country and to do what is best for the people of Scotland while giving people in other countries all around the world the chance to take there home countries back for themselves now which part in all of that is fair and now to try and hold us to ransom over a currency. we are already a democratic nation and should have the full democratic process apply to us and not this farce we currently have to endure.
  11. 2 likes
    Not sure how you work that out as the 06 this morning had the low north Irish Sea at 12z Sunday. The 12z has it 985mb just west of Carlisle. Let's await and see if that's correct.
  12. 2 likes
    Can not believe you missed that TM, You must of been just on the edge of the storms. Buxton is only 6 miles to my North, They only got 0.4mm, Very hit and miss. . Look at the moisture rising out the Wye Valley.
  13. 2 likes
    It wouldn't just be the English - it would be the N.Irish and Welsh as well, remember. Edit: And your Darian slur is a bit puerile.
  14. 2 likes
    I'm pretty tired of this to be honest man and it would be great if we could drop the matter and get onto more salient issues. For what it's worth, sharing some things in common while having crucial differences is somewhat different to sharing mutual yet exclusive ancestral, cultural and social traits. The whole shortbread tin image of Scotland can be misleading - Scotland is made up of many different ancestral peoples, from Gaels to Picts, Norse to Angles to Brythonic peoples. Culturally, Scotland is divided into many regions traditionally, with the Highlands representing Gaelic culture as well as elements of Norse culture. Take Shetland and Orkney, almost exclusively Norse yet traded with mainland Highlands through Gaelic language as well as using Scots for administrative purpose. Compare to Stornoway, historically Pictish, then Norse and then Gaelic. Inverness, historically Pictish, then dominated by Gaelic until the early 20th century. Aberdeenshire, with it's unique Doric dialect of Scots. Edinburgh, inhabited by Picts, then Gaels then Angles, culturally distinct from Glasgow in many ways. Then there's Glasgow, a huge melting pot of different peoples, historically Brythonic / Gaelic then Scots developed. What I'm trying to say is that there's not some imagined past of an ancient people from which we are all descended. The religious makeup has historically been very different across Scotland, with the reformation failing to make an impact on some places in the Highlands and Islands (Barra, Benbecula and South Uist remain Catholic til this day as well as some mainland areas). Much of the Highlands broke away from the Scottish Church with the Scottish Free Church, the Highland Free Church and the Highland Free Presbyterian Church - Episcopalian churches and baptist churches are also common here. Politically, the Borders / Dumfries and Galloway have traditionally been sympathetic to the Conservatives, much of the central belt has been staunchly Labour with Aberdeenshire / Perthshire / Moray a stronghold for the SNP and the Highlands and Islands have been traditionally Lib Dem. That's just a very quick, simplified summary of how Scots have different cultural, social, political and ancestral traits depending on their area. A call for social justice and fair distribution of wealth does NOT make you an ethnic group, nor does it permit the referencing of self-identified ethnic backgrounds.
  15. 2 likes
  16. 2 likes
    OMG! This rain is sooooo heavy!!!! Cant remember the last time i saw anything like this!
  17. 2 likes
    Just for a bit of fun, we have a competition - pin the tail on the Bertha - NW Extra subscriptions for the winners http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81104-competition-pin-the-tail-on-the-bertha/
  18. 2 likes
    It's interesting that they haven't issued a wind warning.
  19. 2 likes
    NOAA also predicting Bertha to deepen significantly thus take the more northerly track With the ECM now starting to come on board the channel runner idea doesn't look too likely now
  20. 2 likes
    I find this sentiment extremely perverse.
  21. 2 likes
    Got to remember poor sanitation poor health facilities resistance to medical checks and a large population so you're probably talking a very small percentage indeed. So I wouldn't panic yet.
  22. 1 like
    Lovely steady rain, so nice I had to go and sit in it lol. (just no t+l tho please!!)
  23. 1 like
    Incredible here...I've seen a lot of storms, but these are awesome! Lights going on and off, no meal cooked yet!
  24. 1 like
    38.7mm in the last hour, Still mod rain here
  25. 1 like
    Cheers, GF. Looks like something that's testable, we should have enough satellite data to be able to show whether or not these model simulations are accurate. Perhaps someone could set up a solar activity/Milankovitch cycles and climate thread to continue the discussion?
  26. 1 like
    This is not the right thread for continuing the discussion but here's a link for BFTV on cloud formation. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/4/045004/
  27. 1 like
    Well my garden is like a lake, iv never seen it flooded this bad before, not the heaviest rain iv ever witnessed, however its been going for a hell of a long time now!
  28. 1 like
    nope, too technical for me to work out how to do it Jo, happy with the middle track Exeter are showing?
  29. 1 like
    Must be the rain we were modelled to get today earlier in the week!
  30. 1 like
    I think that's a great idea leave it to the people instead of the politicians. another possible would be to vote for keeping the currency union but also a vote from the other nations to see if they all want to become independent but keep the currency union as I am sure there will be plenty of welsh and northern irish people who would love to have the same opportunity we have been afforded.
  31. 1 like
    The rain will generally be wrapped around to the north of the Low centre while the swathe of high winds wrapped to the south of the low centre. Of course this varies with the stage of development of the Storm.
  32. 1 like
    I still feel like southwest are going to cop it and that the winds are going to be stronger than predicted so far I've had a strange feeling ever since Hurricane Bertha was mentioned The 12z will be for an interesting read/look.......
  33. 1 like
    Just look at this intensification - in 15 minutes!! 15:05 15:20 Like a bomb has gone off! Barnsley getting hammered No one allowed to complain from there now, the amount of thunder I've heard to the north! Some more development south of there too, heading close to Matlock - hoping for similar intensification
  34. 1 like
    You're not alone - there's millions of us, despite what anyone 'on the other side' would have you believe. Summer has nothing going for it and is fraught with unpleasantness and woe at every turn. Not to worry - it's all over bar the shouting. Having had to be up at 0430 every day this week, it's astonishing how quickly the daylight is losing its pernicious grip, and how that 'summer feel' has evaporated. Just before setting out at the beginning of the week, there was enough light to see in the house... today necessitated switching on the lights. It's ace!
  35. 1 like
  36. 1 like
    Love the idea of a competition thread. Hopefully I won't make myself look too silly.
  37. 1 like
    So it's wrong, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get it right. I was in Sweden earlier this week and we were forecast thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, didn't happen. Did happen 50km away and stretched 100km south east of that. If you look at the radar from earlier this morning, the first heavy pulse went up the North Sea, so was 75km East of where it was predicted to be It hasn't rained yet here and I don't expect it to be as heavy as predicted as I take into account our microclimate
  38. 1 like
  39. 1 like
    The BBC too saying Bertha is less likely to hit France. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/28705209
  40. 1 like
    No on the contrary and made expressly clear, to reiterate - It was in relation to identity and collective consciousness regarding notions of nationalism which is central to an independence debate, backed by demographic data from the last census. Others dwelt on the issue of colour. Maybe not getting facts straight and casting slurs is standard for the pro-independence campaign?
  41. 1 like
  42. 1 like
    Here is what the Met O said on 7th regarding the uncertainty over the future of Bertha: "The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast with confidence, so there are still some differences in the location and intensity of the resulting depression, which is expected to pass over, or close to, the UK from early on Sunday." However, this is what the NHC in Florida said in its last advisory on Bertha on Wednesday 6th at 11am: "Satellite images indicate that Bertha has become associated with afrontal system and has acquired extratropical characteristics. Thelow-level center is devoid of deep convection and is on the cold airside of a frontal cloud band or trough extending from Nova Scotiasouthwestward to the Bahamas. In addition, there is a strongwesterly upper-level jet over the system.The low is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 27 knotssteered by the mid-latitude westerlies. Most of the global modelskeep the post-tropical cyclone moving rapidly northeastward andthen eastward over the North Atlantic." So it seems the transition from tropical to extra-tropical had already occurred by the time the Met O decided to discuss it on their website. It looks to me like the NHC's forecasters had a better handle on Bertha's future than our own forecasters did, yet both presumably had access to the same data. It'll be interesting to see how the forecast develops over today and tomorrow
  43. 1 like
    Thank you, although I would not call myself an experienced forecaster - more someone with a keen storm interest. I await an outlook from one of the even more experienced forecasters
  44. 1 like
    Yeah, maybe though I wasn't born then. Anyway, the WRF-NMM wind gust chart looks encouraging. Wind gusts shown here widely of 45 - 55 mph with 60 mph possible somewhere even inland.
  45. 1 like
    I disagree, I think it's actually working for the Yes campaign - in modern times, ordinary people generally dislike being told explicitly what they can and cannot do by posh folk.
  46. 1 like
    After the amount of god damn storm threats we've had so far I best get some bloody snow later in the year to make up for this!
  47. 1 like
    stand by your beds , no modell no forecaster will get details right for this weekend ,even the Met office as of tonight are struggling with synoptic situation come this sunday .as my next door neighbour who works for the Met says ,Sundays mid day chart could be at least 300 miles eighther way ,current predictions ,wild wet and news worthy [somewhere over the uk ,you may experience some wild weather or you could be sat enjoying a STella under clear sunny skies ,enjoy the weather and remember its not an exact Science ,ok far more precise than 30 yrs ago ,but mother nature is continually foxing us ,a trillion or more segments of data is up there and when tomorrows sun comes up it will change again ,just got a gut feeling that autumn will be early this year ,as i said a gut feeling ,mother nature as not set out her stall yet so how can we possibly predict any outlook , talk on north american forums of a cold and vortick dominated autumn ,NO WAY OF TELLING even with modern computers ,enjoy our unsettled and stormy spell coming up, remember what many of us were predicting or hinting at early december last year ,well it finished up Totally different and a real weather freak of this century ,But possibly happened thousands of times before ,Take care all and tune in tomorrow for an update on ex Bertha T48 hrs ,cheers .
  48. 1 like
    and another horrible humid day here, we are long overdue a cool spell now
  49. 1 like
    It means you are near Ed Milliband's house
  50. 1 like
    yeah from about 11am onwards it is noticebly warming up and by the time its about 1-2pm its usually unbearable. Up until about 2-3 in the morning. Temperatures seem to bottom out about 4am but 9am always feels more pleasant than 3am for some reason. Sometimes I do wonder if people are trolling on some forums people keep calling hot sticky humid weather "pleasant". Then on here people stating they want 50C, it cannot be real.
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