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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/08/14 in all areas

  1. Hi everyone, just dropping in after a long break. I hope the variable summer weather (especially the thunderstorms) has kept everyone entertained. I must confess that I am finding all the forecast dithering over the fate of ex-hurricane Bertha rather baffling. Admittedly, forecasting potential storm tracks this time of year is somewhat difficult, owing to the lower jet speed. Yet, as I see it, the case for Bertha turning into quite a potent storm looks quite compelling. I notice that for at least 5 days, the GFS has consistently shown Bertha developing into an intense LP, keeping fairly close to the same track from run to run. That in itself suggests it is entirely possible that the track will be across England as it has been showing. That apart, the NHC, even when Bertha was still tropical, showed the expected track to be straight out into the Atlantic, south of 50N. The storm is currently very well placed to engage the jet off the E coast of Canada. There is always an abundance of very warm, moist air associated with these ex- tropical storms, which by itself increases the temperature gradient and favours substantial deepening. I think the ambivalence concerns whether Bertha will actually engage the jet or not. Well, as I said, the GFS hasn't had any doubts on that score. The latest MetO thinking gives a 60% probability of Bertha crossing S England, heading NE. Herein lies the greatest risk, I think, with a strong possibility of the storm developing a very tight gradient on its W and SW flank, as pressure rises sharply behind it. Not to mention copious amounts of rainfall, although with the likely speed of the system, that seems to preclude any significant rainfall issues. August storms of this kind are not that unusual, although this is pretty early in the month for one. Personally, I feel this storm could be quite notable, with the wind being the most potentially damaging feature. I shall watch with great interest how the situation develops and how the forecasts change in the next couple of days.
    10 points
  2. Some serious flooding being reported here, Horns bridge area especially! Bottom of my garden is for the 4th time this year, like a river! Great little storm that was!
    7 points
  3. Some interesting convective potential showing on Sunday from GFS in association with the depression formed from ex-Bertha moving through. Strong jet aloft, veering wind profiles towards the surface with passage of low, 500mb dry air intrusion and several 100 j/kg CAPE in warm sector just ahead of cold front moving east = the recipe for severe thunderstorms. So potential for supercells bringing large hail, damaging convective gusts and even one or two tornadoes. Slp and jet + CAPE 12z Sun: relative humidity at 500hPa at 12z Sun - blue showing dry air intrusion - which will enhance convection: Lightning wizard wind shear and sig. tornado parameter charts at 09z and 12z Sun show the potential for rotating storms and tornadoes: However, I am only illustrating potential, rather than making an actual forecast, given uncertainty over the track of the low still. 12z ECM has the low tracking alot further south than GFS - through S England and exiting around the Wash, for example. Thus severe potential maybe confined to Sern England in this case.
    6 points
  4. Sigh, warnings were made and from some of the posts on here and news stories, some places got hit really badly. The weather warnings were well founded. There is no point trying to predict where showers will form and track as they tend to ebb and flow as opposed to organised bands of rain. That being said the imported rain never really took off this morning, though no models did well on that regard. That's the nature of showers, especially imported storms. Shall we leave this now and move on, looking forward to any pictures and videos that people got today As for the weather in my area, it chucked it down for a good 15 minutes, but I think we got away with the worst, as areas west of Cambridge found out.
    6 points
  5. The gods of rain dont seem to like Dronfield More torrential rain here now! this is amazing, Distant thunder also from the South, strikes being shown near Sutton in Ashfield also to the North near Sheffield What an evening this turned out to be!
    6 points
  6. I detect the beginnings of the ol' north v south argument when it comes to storms. Please don't start that nonsense here.
    6 points
  7. Another update in my blog after digesting the 12z output: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6068;sess= 2100 update 08/08/2014 Still the models disagree less than 48 hours away from when the centre of the depression formed from ex-Bertha makes landfall somewhere across the west of mainland UK on Sunday morning. 12z GFS takes the centre of the low up through the Irish Sea on Sunday morning and makes landfall across Cumbria around lunchtime before exiting over SE Scotland into the North Sea, the centre on land crossing circa 985mb, so fairly deep for the time of year. It shows wind gusts of 40-60mph over coasts and hills of SW England, Wales and northern England - perhaps more on the lee side of the Pennines and mountains of N Wales, plus funnel effect of valleys. 30-40mph gusts further south and east. Rainfall totals of 50mm+ across southern Ireland, 20-30mm max across Wales and N England. ECMWF, on the other hand, takes the low centre, a shallower feature, NE across S England, exiting The Wash into the N Sea around 995mb. Winds and rainfall totals less, but still appreciable to make Sunday a windy wash out across much of England and Wales. Met Office T+48 fax chart for noon Sunday is in between ECM and GFS tracks but closer to the ECM depth with 996mb, so perhaps this maybe the best compromise for the likely track for now. GFS indicates a convective element to this storm system, with instability and strong wind shear in the warm sector just ahead of the cold front sweeping east - so there is a risk of organised embedded storms, perhaps supercells, which could produce their own severe weather in the form of strong convective gusts, large hail and even a tornado or two ... I will look into this scenario in a storm forecast to be issued nearer the time.
    5 points
  8. Thunder and lightning for pretty much 6 hours. Crazy. Saw one last distant flash as I left Tesco recently.
    5 points
  9. Some pretty bad quality lightning stills, the last one is from a CG, couldnt manage to get the bolt when pausing the video.
    5 points
  10. Quick ok-ish shot of the view to the north about 20 mins ago 16:05 radar grab looks very interesting - hoping someone with a bit more knowledge can confirm the signature of the cell nr Bradford?
    5 points
  11. Well that was epic in terms of rainfall. Pleanty of thunder but no lightning.
    5 points
  12. Moving on, FAX chart for tomorrow Light to moderate west/south westerly. Looks a fine day, just the chance of catching an odd shower. Temperatures Look reasonable, 21-24C so a decent day overall. Sunday (subject to major change) Going to do the GFS/ECM and the FAX for this to give the options on the table. GFS Bertha deepens and tracks up the Western coasts of England and Wales before pushing across Southern Scotland. For us there would be a band of steady rain and strong winds (gusts around 40-45mph). This clears to showers in the afternoon, fairly warm (21-23C) ECM Shallow wave pushing East/North East across the south of the UK, winds light to moderate but the risk of significant rainfall totals. Temperatures could get quite high before the rain arrives. FAX Wet and breezy at this point with rain pushing through from late morning. Rain looks heavy so again local flooding could be an issue. Temperatures would struggle to reach the twenties here. As you can see, great uncertainty.
    4 points
  13. Well said CS, weather forecasting, even with super computers is incredibly difficult, even more so with showers rather than frontal rain. As an example, your old stamping ground has got wet today, areas west of me Fakenham to Lynn have been soaked, We've stayed totally dry, only about 15 minutes of sun all day, very murky, looked on several occasions that it was going to pelt down, rain?? Not a drop, but such is the nature of showers. We had a big(gish) storm here 2 nights ago, wasn't forecast ( as far as I know, I was just outside Stockholm hoping for a forecast Thunderstorm which never happened) but the family enjoyed it. Weather is weather, the people who stand in front of the cameras tell us what the models see, and when the models are wrong, so are they. I couldn't predict the weather as I'm not psychic, those that rely on technology can only report what the technology tells them. The weather in the last 3-4 months has been sufficiently "different" to make the models struggle. All the models rely on past data to predict the future, they need something similar in the past to predict the future, if its not there, any numerical model will only extrapolate what it can -- and the possinbility of getting it wrong increases. Final point, the models, as we know them, have only been about less than 10 years, all the talk of the wonderful storms of the 80's and 90's were before the models as we see them existed.
    4 points
  14. One of the worst short range forecasts I think I've ever seen - how on earth could they manage to miss this amount of rain?
    4 points
  15. This 'open-letter' writing to the Scottish electorate is reminiscent of the 2004 US Presidential election, when that bastion of the left, the Guardian organised an intervention pleading with the electorate of Clark County to not for vote Bush. That went well... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/13/uselections2004.usa11 http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/27/1098667836946.html
    4 points
  16. It's about the time the Yanks take action against ISIS. These monsters (and Islamic extremists in general) need to be wiped off the face of the Earth, there is no place in humanity for them. Strange though, they're the same people the US and UK were arming and supporting in Syria just a few months ago. Facepalm...
    4 points
  17. fantasy island, where the outputs are very unreliable.... i prefer Forget It though ...lol.
    4 points
  18. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2014-08-08 10:44:01 Valid: 08/08/2014 1100z to 09/08/2014 0600z THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Large upper low sits to the W/N of the UK, driving a deeply cyclonic SWly flow across the UK, parent surface low is slow moving to the NW of British Isles with a surface trough moving NE across SE Uk developing into an area of low pressure, an unstable airmass develops across central, eastern and northern areas. ... SE ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, N & E ENGLAND, S/W SCOTLAND ... Warm air advection at lower levels and increasingly cooler mid-level air overspreading from the west from upper low – will create an unstable airmass to surface heating across the above areas. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop as a result, with t-storms already across Yorks and Lincs. Thunderstorms will become more widespread through the day. Fairly strong SWly will allow some storm organisation into clusters/multicells, capable of producing localised high rainfall totals leading to flash flooding, hail of up to 1-2cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong wind gusts. These storms should clear away east later in the evening. ... IRELAND/N IRELAND ... Steep lapse rates here on the edge of upper low and its cold pool, combined with some weak surface heating and forcing from occluded fronts moving in from the west, will support scattered t-storms today, storms capable of producing hail, gusty winds and localised flooding
    4 points
  19. Well ECM ensembles are finally seeing the bigger picture and only 10% no longer have Bertha to the SW at T48. Now the main variable is how intense it is and there are breezy members and gale force with ones in between. By T96 Bertha mixes with the core low in the trough and the new low deepens (again variations on that theme). By D5 the new low is filling at different rates according to its members. ECM's track of the low Sunday: 6am noon 6pm It is in line with GFS, in that again certain parts of the SE will escape the rain. GEFS offer similar variety with regard to Bertha, maybe slightly more have a weakening feature as it approaches the UK. The GEM op also made little of Bertha, but like the rogue GFS run a day or so ago, this was likely to happen at one point as there remains a cluster showing this. Currently about 30% of GEM's 0z support the op, 70% support the GEM control: UKMO have struggled with Bertha and this morning the Fax looks like it weakens Bertha as it crosses the Channel/South coast: Not sure this has much support anymore, yesterday this was showing up as an option, but today most have UK impact around SW crossing NE. Assuming we have reached some sort of consensus (based on ensembles) then UKMO and ECM have been disappointing in their guidance whilst GEM and GFS have been very consistent. Tonights runs should clarify this finally. Afterwards it looks like there is no clear consistent sign of a return to higher pressure. ECM's warm D10 chart last night is now a distant memory. ECM mean at D10: Similar to GEM mean: and also GFS mean: I suspect the greater impact Bertha has on our mid latitude location the longer our weather will be sourced from a cooler direction.
    4 points
  20. The Met Office have warnings out to "be aware" and at this stage that is exactly what the general public need to be. There is still uncertainty about it's track and so the Met Office are right to put out yellow warnings, even if it ends up heading down the channel and bears little effect on the UK. If this does happen then the Met Office were not wrong (i am sure we will get somebody posting this fact at some place across the forum) as the warning to be aware would have still been valid. It may only be 2 days away but the system is still a thousand miles away in the Atlantic, another 24 hours and we should have a much better grasp on its path. 1976 (great year, it was the year i was born ) welcome to the forum. I wouldn't be packing up any holidays yet, if the storm heads on the northern track (i.e. affecting a swathe of the UK) then I would expect the met office to issue Amber warnings - this is the point where you would need to consider packing up and heading off. This in addition to any warnings from valid forecasters on netweather. By valid forecaster I mean a proper alert issued from one of the netweather forecasters not somebody ramping up one run of one model on the general forum.
    4 points
  21. I must confess that I am finding all the forecast dithering over the fate of ex-hurricane Bertha rather baffling. Admittedly, forecasting potential storm tracks this time of year is somewhat difficult, owing to the lower jet speed. Yet, as I see it, the case for Bertha turning into quite a potent storm looks quite compelling. For an ex met observer I find this a rather surprising comment. The immense technical problem this kind of thing throws up has yet to be solved in any computer model. So 'dithering' is hardly the right word I would say. Uncertainty, yes, and perfectly understandable. This morning the 3 main models are still no in agreement although returning to basics may be called for if they still have not got very close agreement by the 12z output this afternoon. At least the models now have a good fix on its position since it turned into an ex tropical storm over the last 12 hours, so surface and upper air details should become less problematical from now on.
    4 points
  22. Well, hopefully, the Yanks sticking their oar in will assist in increasing the YES vote. Good grief, people here just need to look at the mess that administration has made globally never mind in their own country ( closely backed by the current 3 stoogies in Westminster I might add!) It is because of such issues and the blatant puppetry of the Westminster Government that we need the YES vote! We need to get a life, and we won't get it if we are continually being made to dance under the 'Star Spangled Banner!'
    4 points
  23. Great plan with only two minor drawbacks. 1. We would die 2. We would die I thought that the drawback was so big that it had to be mentioned twice
    4 points
  24. Well I ended up seeing a storm in the end as I chased that line of storms this evening from around Alfreton to Mansfield and beyond just before it started to die away. I didn't see a lot of lightning, but a few bright flashes evident as I was driving. The main thing about it was the rainfall and how dark it was. Considering it was only around 7:30pm it was like dusk and the rainfall was incredible. I can well believe the kind of rainfall amounts that have been reported as it was coming down in absolute torrents with visibility very poor on the A38 around Sutton, despite traffic only moving at around 30-40mph.
    3 points
  25. The only government trying to stop Scotland taking a due share of the debt is the UK one by apparently refusing a currency union. If Scotland can't print Sterling to service Sterling debt - i.e. currency union - it can't take on any Sterling debt. It is really that simple. How many times do we have to go over this. Currency is fiat - it has no intrinsic value. Scotland cannot be expected to pay the UK for its share of the debt unless it gets its fair share of any £'s printed to pay the debt and a say on currency policy. End of. Also, the idea that nobody would lend a country which didn't have any debt (the UK debt is the UK's, issued by the UK government and was not incurred by Scotland due it being in surplus for decades and beyond) due to being excluded from using its own currency while at the same time had trillions in oil revenues backing it is simply laughable. Iceland is borrowing happily and Ireland is getting better rates than the UK. The so called 'arc of insolvency'.
    3 points
  26. I hope so as well. I do understand your fustrations, and if we do part ways, I won't blame the Scottish people, as it would also be like blaming my father. In the end of the day I will be blaming Westminister and our political system. The trouble is the people of the rUK are like sheep, and don't seem to have any interest or desire to reform their political system, parliament or having a written constitution. I do hope in the event of this referendum, regardless of the result, that the people realise this situation cannot continue and try to change things. One thing I do definately agree with you is that having 200 celebrities signing a letter won't make certain or win a No vote in the referendum. Celebrity cultre is part of the problem in this country not the solution.
    3 points
  27. Both the Boulder and SIDC sunspot numbers are calculated from the observations of teams of volunteers all over the world (often amateurs), who take their telescopes, go into their back gardens and count every spot they can see. You can actually volunteer to do this yourself and make a contribution to solar science! Each observer has an adjustment factor to account for the capability of their telescope etc, and in the case of the International Sunspot Number (the SIDC one), it is all calibrated to a reference station in Locarno in Switzerland. There's a wealth of information here to allay any fears: http://sidc.oma.be/silso/faq-page There is an ongoing initiative to make the sunspot historic record as accurate as it possibly can be: http://ssnworkshop.wikia.com/wiki/Home The SIDC site is very cool, because you can see the current estimate for the day's sunspot number change as the observations come in: http://sidc.oma.be/silso/eisnplot
    3 points
  28. We (well the West), have certainly made a rod for our own backs when it comes to ISIS, we opened the door for them. In Syria I am not even sure if we are supporting ISIS against Assad? When we leave Afghanistan they will take advantage there as they have in Iraq. We also appear to have left Lybia in a mess, having to rescue people from the shore. Egypt's democracy didn't last 5 minutes due to the fact the Islamists won the election. Isreal continues to pound Gaza with state of the art weapons it really should have, but the US and UK are happy to supply. Call me an old cynic, but I reckon that the US/West foreign policy just might be flawed? I wouldn't trust them to run a village fete without causing a riot!
    3 points
  29. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80662-south-east-england-east-anglia-central-southern-england-regional-weather-chat/?p=3020078 Don't let the mods see you say that, they'll give you one of those cool warning points
    3 points
  30. If you think Milankovitch cycles can have no influence over 10,000 years, the you need to re-read the link you provided. You dismiss numerous reconstructions as having too many holes and assumptions, without being able to name any. hat's nt very sceptical There are studies that have looked at my last point, here's a few. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD011800/abstract https://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_100737.htm http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html If you think you can dismiss inconvenient data by repeating the AGW denial meme "So how has that been working out for them the last 15+ years then", then you are far from being a sceptic. I'll respond to your posts in future when you learn to have an informed, or at least an adult, discussion about the climate.
    3 points
  31. I think that in an event of a Yes vote (still a big if) in this referendum, I think it only fair that the rest of the UK should have a referendum on whether they should let Scotland into a currency union. I think its best for the people of the rest of the UK to decide, as this is an issue that effects the 58 million other people in the rest of the UK. I don't think the Scottish nationalists would object to the people of the rest of the UK in having a decision on this matter, after quite rightly being allowed to have a decision on whether they want to become independent???
    3 points
  32. The track of Bertha is still undecided by the models. The differences in them are still large but lets take a look at what the GFS, ECM and UKMO say in a quick map I've made below showing their tracks, The GFS seems keen on keeping it to the North while the UKMO goes for it tracking across the very far South and the ECM is in between them. So what do the other models say? Both the JMA and GEM models show something similar to the UKMO, they track it along the far South as well. NAVGEM agrees with the ECM. It would seem the UKMO has good support behind it from the other models. The ECM has some support but the GFS at the moment doesn't have much backing it. Now lets take a look at what the GFS, ECM and UKMO show. GFS 0z run has the low tracking across Southern Ireland and into Northern England. It brings wind gusts of 35 to 45mph but in exposed places over 50mph would be likely. It also brings heavy rain to Ireland, Wales and England. GFS 06z run has the low tracking a bit more further North than the earlier 0z run. This puts the wind speeds up a lot more with 50 to 60mph gusts for Southern Ireland and Wales. Northern England gets something slightly lower around 45 to 55mph gusts. Heavy rain moves over the whole country through out the day but its Ireland that see's the worse. ECM 0z shows the low at 9am to the South of Wales with winds around 35 to 50mph for the South West of England, By 12pm the low is now over the Midlands and strong winds of 30 to 45mph move across Southern England. 3pm the low has moved up to Northern England which moves the strong winds to Eastern England now at 25 to 40mph. UKMO 0z shows probably the least windiest out of the three. It shows gusts over 20mph for most places near the low as it passes by. But it does show either heavy rain showers or heavy rain affecting almost everywhere in the UK during Sunday. Overall the track of Bertha is still undecided between the models at the moment where the ECM or UKMO places the track of Bertha seems the most likely. The GFS and ECM show us that if it does track further North heavy rain and very strong winds will be a big issue for many however if it does track a lot more further South like the UKMO does the wind won't be much of a problem at all but either way they all agree on heavy rain will be a issue.
    3 points
  33. Almost constant loud thunder here and few flashes has been rumbling for last 45 minutes so slow moving But no rain at all may I add
    3 points
  34. SS I think you're missing the point re currency, that would be a minor issue in the majority of referendums because these were conducted in countries which were not developed and often against a backdrop of war and oppression. The pound is a tradable currency so of course Scotland can use this, no one is stopping Scotland using this so AS continued rhetoric on this is just trying to portray this as the UK bully versus Scotland. IMO the whole CU has been a train wreck which has just caused more division especially as it comes with threats re the debt, the Yes should have put forward two proposals clearly to the Scottish public, one a new currency and the other a possible CU but clearly stating that a CU would need both sides to come together and would need the rUK public to come on side, this non adversarial tone would have checked Westminster and not come across as AS dictating to the rUK what's good for it. There seems to be a complete lack of understanding as to how this debate is coming across to the rUK and how it's likely to effect public opinion. Legally there may need to be a referendum in the rUK as the CU would mean some ceding of sovereignty , AS attitude might play well to some in Scotland but is toxic for the rUK. Of course this vote is just for Scots but going forward the rUK public may play a role as negotiations start. Will the Scottish public be given a vote on currency, will the pros and cons be laid out or will AS just drag Scotland into a CU . I have made my views clear on a CU, it's not good for Scotland, will become toxic because of the restrictions placed by Westminster and will not suit Scotland's economy where your own currency is important to have flexibility as an oil exporter. If I was Scottish I would welcome a Scottish currency, this would mean a clean break and no interference from Westminster, it would in the longer term lead to better relations because economic policies wouldn't be biased to the rUK.The most successful independent countries with similar populations all have their own currency.
    3 points
  35. Met currently show the centre off the Channel Isles at 12z Sunday tracking NE to exit the east coast just south of the Wash, see Fax links below, http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72 these charts will be updated through the day and into tomorrow so worth bookmarking to see how any changes show for the same times as on the output between 0500 and the current T+72 chart for 00z Monday. We can all try and beat Exeter but at the end of the day the most probable centre position and depth is going to come from one of these charts. Whether the current output or updates today or tomorrow will be the closes we can look back later on Monday to find out. Will GFS be a better guide than Met or ECMWF, no one knows at the moment, the next update on video from the senior man should be interesting. Remember the charts shown with UK Met stamp on them are NOT necessarily all UK Met. I suspect that at least one shown yesterday was the GFS output. A very interesting period for weather fans to watch.
    3 points
  36. BBC and Met Office seem keen to break out thundery showers across the middle slice of the UK today, pushing east during the latter part of the day and clearing the east coast overnight. However, Estofex clearly not in agreement as only Ireland and Western Scotland in with a chance; the15% risk covers these areas, but I will come onto this shortly. NMM shows an increase in lapse rates this afternoon across a swathe of England: Lapse rates then increase over the SE quarter later this evening and first part of the night, although the NMM model has all precipitation moved off to the NE by this time. GFS and NMM agree on some 300-500j/kg of CAPE, so not a huge amount but should be enough to promote some storm activity this afternoon - GFS chart below: An interest for me is the existence of convergence zones, which could focus the heavy downpours. These are quite numerous across NW England this afternoon and then across N England and eventually NE England this evening, which ties in well with the Met Office prediction. Euro4 precipitation looks interesting, but will it be thundery? Estofex thoughts (or lack of) may be down to the fact that although there will be storms around they will not be especially electrically active as CAPE/instability is rather limited. What is not limited though is the amount of moisture, with some high PWAT levels this afternoon. Given this and the slow moving nature of showers this could mean a lot of water falling in some places over a space of time. My thoughts on today are that there will be some heavy showers and thunderstorms. It's hard to pin down a highest risk area but I would say draw a line from around west London to SW Scotland and anywhere east of this. As mentioned, storms that do occur will have the potential to produce torrential downpours and the combination of slow moving downpours and merging over convergence zones may lead to a risk of flooding. Storms could just about bring a risk of hail and CG lightning, although I think the risk of these is lower and today maybe more about rain than other storm aspects with only sporadic lightning.
    3 points
  37. Just think if US and Tony Blah Blah hadn't destabilized the middle east. Todays headline USA and Britain sign new deal with Saddam Hussain to ship tanks to help in his fight against islamic extremists ISIS. Galloway blasts the aid as war on Islam and Americans and American will not be welcome in Bradford. Back to reality America is going to launch air strikes if Isis advance and threaten American interests. It may also launch strikes to help civilians trapped on a mountain Mount Sinjar. In the meantime Hamas have resumed it's rocket attacks on Israel.
    3 points
  38. I don't really understand why anyone wants to stay in this union under Westminsters powers and be in support of a government that goes to war or hands out arms to groups to help over throw dictatorships around the world yet still wants to hold us under a dictatorship where they wont let the political party that we fairly elected to our parliament through a lawful democratic process to have full powers over our country and to do what is best for the people of Scotland while giving people in other countries all around the world the chance to take there home countries back for themselves now which part in all of that is fair and now to try and hold us to ransom over a currency. we are already a democratic nation and should have the full democratic process apply to us and not this farce we currently have to endure.
    3 points
  39. Night snow and thunder are pretty cool too! Raining steady for an hour here! 16.1c
    2 points
  40. It wouldn't just be the English - it would be the N.Irish and Welsh as well, remember. Edit: And your Darian slur is a bit puerile.
    2 points
  41. NOAA and UKMO FAX look similar and differing a lot from the ECM 12z I think these charts will be closest to the reality, maybe a wee bit less deep.
    2 points
  42. Hi Buried They count every single teeny-weeny dot on the Sun's surface these days, so even if the major spots are deteoriating, the sunspot count will be higher if there is more evidence of tiny sunspots reaching the surface. This has been one of the major bugbears in this thread about records for the current solar cycle: that sunspot numbers appear higher now simply because there are satellites that can detect far smaller ones than in the past, and this makes it difficult to compare like with like between this cycle and previous ones. I'm sure that NASA/NOAA do a like-for-like comparison, but it doesn't appear to make it to their public pages.
    2 points
  43. I'm pretty tired of this to be honest man and it would be great if we could drop the matter and get onto more salient issues. For what it's worth, sharing some things in common while having crucial differences is somewhat different to sharing mutual yet exclusive ancestral, cultural and social traits. The whole shortbread tin image of Scotland can be misleading - Scotland is made up of many different ancestral peoples, from Gaels to Picts, Norse to Angles to Brythonic peoples. Culturally, Scotland is divided into many regions traditionally, with the Highlands representing Gaelic culture as well as elements of Norse culture. Take Shetland and Orkney, almost exclusively Norse yet traded with mainland Highlands through Gaelic language as well as using Scots for administrative purpose. Compare to Stornoway, historically Pictish, then Norse and then Gaelic. Inverness, historically Pictish, then dominated by Gaelic until the early 20th century. Aberdeenshire, with it's unique Doric dialect of Scots. Edinburgh, inhabited by Picts, then Gaels then Angles, culturally distinct from Glasgow in many ways. Then there's Glasgow, a huge melting pot of different peoples, historically Brythonic / Gaelic then Scots developed. What I'm trying to say is that there's not some imagined past of an ancient people from which we are all descended. The religious makeup has historically been very different across Scotland, with the reformation failing to make an impact on some places in the Highlands and Islands (Barra, Benbecula and South Uist remain Catholic til this day as well as some mainland areas). Much of the Highlands broke away from the Scottish Church with the Scottish Free Church, the Highland Free Church and the Highland Free Presbyterian Church - Episcopalian churches and baptist churches are also common here. Politically, the Borders / Dumfries and Galloway have traditionally been sympathetic to the Conservatives, much of the central belt has been staunchly Labour with Aberdeenshire / Perthshire / Moray a stronghold for the SNP and the Highlands and Islands have been traditionally Lib Dem. That's just a very quick, simplified summary of how Scots have different cultural, social, political and ancestral traits depending on their area. A call for social justice and fair distribution of wealth does NOT make you an ethnic group, nor does it permit the referencing of self-identified ethnic backgrounds.
    2 points
  44. We can do it I know we can! I am guessing looking at the models that we should see near 50 mph wind gusts here which is more like 70 mph - 80 mph in Winter.
    2 points
  45. When I last saw the forecast at 7pmish they showed precipitation covering south east england, heavy bursts with possible thunder. It was due to arrive about 5am! I woke up, looked outside and it was dry and sunny, it's now partly cloudy and sunny spells and very humid still no rain. And you lot think the beeb and met do a good job? Seriously
    2 points
  46. Pretty much in agreement with supacell. Two features to spark of convection. A weak trough in the East. And low level wind convergence. Mid level lapse rates are moderate (condusive to convection but not strong convection). Convection seems unlikely to tap into the jet winds aloft and wind shear through the cloud is low to moderate (slightly better in the east). NMM suggests Strongest risk of a storm in Northern Ireland with a secondary area in the east of the country. Not quite sure how strong the convergence zone convection will be. Forecast SkewT's suggest a moderate risk of spout type tornadoes (very weak - more like wind devils). Poor instability , no dry air aloft and weak direction shear through the cloud suggest the possibility for severe convective activity is very low.
    2 points
  47. never mind feeling the effect of bertha, is anyone feeling the effects of the jet stream BOILING us
    2 points
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