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  1. 7 likes
    And only 8 days for it to go completely wrong and end up drier and warmer than average again I think another 24 hours or so is needed before any confidence can be given on said breakdown, especially considering how the models have backtracked so many times on this type of evolution. Conditions look good still until Friday before then though so plenty of summer-like weather to enjoy before then with temperatures into the low/mid twenties in places.
  2. 6 likes
    This morning, using the usual 500mb anomalies, and they are still not that similar, but near enough to suggest that an upper trough not a ridge will be the main effect on the surface by mid to late next week. The 120h Fax shows the high to the north holding off any Atlantic but I suspect this will be altered over the next 2-3 days, that is for a chart valid for Wednesday onwards.
  3. 4 likes
    Indeed. Looks like the gfs 06z is showing signs of prolonging the settled weather into next week, but going against its previous 00z run. Ecm has been fairly consistent over the last few days with a change in our weather during this coming midweek, and although both models have showed pretty poor modelling of late, ecm over the last few days as shown more consistency with its modelling, so if I had to put money on a model ,this time it would be the Ecm.....
  4. 3 likes
    Very hard at the moment to forecast beyond 5 days ,each day seems to bring a prolonging of the dry and sunny weather .the charts a couple of days ago were going for more of a change later next week ,but it does look like the atlantic will be on the attack so possibilitys afoot for a possible showery spell but nothing yet concrete .i have been tuning in to our fantastic Net weather forum and have enjoyed all the input from posters ,all the best to all ,and as the nights now gradually pull in heres to a memorable [winter forum ]cheers from legritter .
  5. 3 likes
    Hi polar maritime, whilst your statement is quite correct in what the gfs is showing , it's extremely unlikely a gfs chart from deep fairy tale land will verify , the last week we'v seen very few t144 charts get any where close let alone something that's over 300 hours away. For me June has even a fantastic month , despite lots of people forecasting it to be wash out . Lots of sunshine , 2/3 thunderstorms , and lots of warm temps in early 20's . Next week looking a week of transition in my opinion to a more westerly type pattern , no wash out , no northerly plunge , just weather breaking somewhat but pleasant by day and warm in Sunshine.
  6. 3 likes
    Before it descends into one, let's not turn this into a summer people vs. winter people thread.
  7. 2 likes
    compare the subtle changes on the latest Fax chart for Wednesday with the one for 24 hours ago. I do believe that the subsequent charts will follow this idea, slightly lower pressure values in the same chart areas and a more Atlantic look rather than the high to the north blocking that flow. Also fits with the 500mb guidance as I see it. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120
  8. 2 likes
    It does look like a breakdown will occur at the end of the week, but the details look very messy. UKMO looks way too clean and removes heights north of the UK. ECM shows how complications can occur if the high to the north links up with either the ridge to the south east or south west of the UK. This could delay things or sods law stall low pressure over the UK. Beyond that, I will admit that the outlook looks changeable, but rather surprised at the hints of drier and very warm conditions potentially developing into mid-July from the metoffice update.
  9. 2 likes
    12Z charts from GFS, ECM and UKMO all quite different really by T144. GFS keeps a weak ridge over us with frontal activity mainly confined to the north (thundery outbreaks further south possible) - still warm. UKMO loses all heights and looks set for a longer period of unsettled weather. ECM in the middle - a small depression makes it through blocks to the north and the south - maybe unsettled for a couple of days but no prolonged breakdown. So while an end to the anticyclonic dominance looks likely, no clear way ahead from next weekend just yet.
  10. 2 likes
    Up at 0630. Back to bed when the sun got too much. Up again at 1130. Breakfast. Mulled around on here inbetween playing Xbox games in a darkened room. Pal phoned up having a spot of bother with his mo'bike. Had to begrudgingly go out in the awful glare of the day to fix that. Came back and had a nap. Going to shop soon,when the light at least starts to fade a little. Out all day tomorrow - forecast is bad so not looking forward to that at all. Wish it was mid November so badly.
  11. 2 likes
    Quite a deep low being shown in the GFS run. Very windy UK wide with gales and severe gales very probable at this stage. A lot of rain, heavy at that, since the airmass is looking quite warm and humid. Worth keeping an eye on as it may cause some damage as trees are in full leaf and some places are still prone to flooding.
  12. 2 likes
    Nah... Keep it as one, makes it more interesting
  13. 2 likes
    This weather is really getting on my mammaries now. It's ok for week or so, then my patience starts to fray. Hayfever, midges, insects, light at something past 3 in the morning, 11pm at night. Heat, sunburn, humidity, having to water garden. People blasting loud horrific music. Hard to sleep. Reminds me of and confirms exactly why I don't like this weather at this time of year. At least some light at the end of the tunnel now we're at solstice. Models hinting at some changes as well. Bring on the blizzardcanes and Ice Age.
  14. 2 likes
    U really need to change your username!
  15. 2 likes
    Willard get's an award. http://ingeniouspursuits.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/awards-night.html
  16. 2 likes
    Uruguay have 3 million people - 1/3 the population of London - and reached the semi-finals in 2010 and beat England this year. England have 50+ million people, the home of football, have one of the best leagues in the world, significant resources, a rich FA. The evidence I've seen over the past few years suggests the whole English game is broken from the bottom to the top. I read recently that Italy, Spain, Germany and France have over 20,000 youth coaches each. England just ~2,300! When Germany, Spain and Belgium entered a barren period they decided to rip everything up and start again, investing in a transformation of the whole football setup with a brand new vision and mission. Look at the fruit it has produced! England have had 50 years of mediocrity and barrenness and despite some talk don't seem to be doing much. They really shouldn't be seeing a 1/4 final place as an achievement, even a semi-final, they could do soooo much better. If England followed Spain, Germany etc they could be transformed in a decade and be a major international force. It just needs the commitment and investment from the authorities but that seems to be lacking. The slate needs to be wiped clean and English football needs to start all over again, beginning at the grassroots level. Otherwise the medicority will continue and England will be left further and further behind. I'm not saying this as a bitter Welshman or anything, just offering an opinion as a neutral. I'd like to see England do well in fact which is why it's so frustrating to see the current state of affairs!
  17. 1 like
    We want more we want more. Great 2nd half didn't want it to end.
  18. 1 like
  19. 1 like
    from the end of the coming week, usual caveats apply. A chart like this at day 5 doesn't fill me with much confidence, as I stated before that high to the north could stop the Atlantic low in its tracks just about anywhere. ECM mean is pretty much useless from day 6. Looking at clusters will be your best bet there.
  20. 1 like
    With Suarez, it's the way he is so good and so controversial, and how the English media have attacked him so much (rightfully or wrongfully) and how he has shown them exactly where to go; and with Argentina, I find the whole debacle from both sides so meaningless in the 21st century, it's madness
  21. 1 like
    In order of who I want to win: 1. Colombia - drug lords, communists and the best fans in the competition. And Juan Cuadrado.2. France - love the team and the country as a whole3. Italy - another nice country 4. Argentina - Messi needs the WC to be the best ever, and also this Malvinas stuff really does anger the Little Englanders 5. Germany - really good to watch, Joachim Loew deserves something 6. Netherlands - young side 7. USA - love the support and 70s NASL 8. Uruguay - Suarez is fun
  22. 1 like
    One was booked between 2pm-4pm and the other 12- 7pm. 1st one arrived at 11am just as I did and the other at 8.45pm. I got a refund on my premium paid for delivery slots. It was a long day by time I drove back to London. Been lovely weather today though, my plants are happier as am I. Speaking of which I'm off to water them.
  23. 1 like
    Afternoon all After what looks like another very tough week for hay fever sufferers, some sign of relief next weekend from the GFS 12Z Operational: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014062112/gfs-0-168.png?12 GEM keeps the settled conditions in the south a fraction lower but by lowering heights more generally to the west and south west offers a much more comprehensive breakdown into July: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014062112/gem-0-168.png?12 Yet the UKMO is far more progressive and this is the chart of the day for me: http://meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2014062112/UW144-21.GIF?21-18 That's a huge disparity at T+144 with GFS as well as GEM and it's rare to see UKMO take such a line and be the outlier. Kudos to Exeter if they've called this right and I'll be happy though I expect Glastonbury fans won't be so thrilled.
  24. 1 like
    Not many days have been sunny and warm from start to finish either. There's been a fair bit of cloud to contend with this month, not all of it bad in my book (convective clouds can look very pretty). And it's only low 20s at best - God help you if an actual heatwave arrives! It's been a dry spell for sure but a drop in the ocean compared with how much rain there was before then. Bring the wind and rain in autumn please (though it's bound to happen sooner anyway).
  25. 1 like
    Ok I'll behave. I'm unlikely to be provoked anyway seeing as my star is rising!
  26. 1 like
    The fact that we're on that journey towards Autumn and Winter is enough for me.....
  27. 1 like
    Do you lot start worrying about the long days of summer after 22nd December passes?
  28. 1 like
    I do like rain and gales but snow and cold also, nothing better than a good blizzard. Yes at least it hasn't been too hot which is has made things more tolerable, still a pain though.
  29. 1 like
    Agree with last bit, but thought you were a rain/wind fan, and didnt like cold? but actually I have not minded this June, never felt painfully hot, winds mainly come from between north and east
  30. 1 like
    Sadly England's proposed friendly, against Iceland has now been cancelled.........following this morning's 6-0 defeat against the Aldi & Lidl's combined XI
  31. 1 like
    LOL< yes earliest exit since 1958 like I said a week ago, pathetic really and Costa Rica are top of the group, worst English team since 1958 for sure and most overhyped, England were so arrogant thinking they could easily beat Uruguay and then Costa Rica to win the group, even the golden generation weren't that bad. AT least all the chavs can now take down their their English Flags hanging out from their bedroom windows now, always know a chav lives there when I see that
  32. 1 like
    It's turning out to be a rather lovely month. It reminds me of June 2010. It's lovely and warm here today, although a little cloudy at the moment.
  33. 1 like
    Until we stop the big teams being allowed to hoover up any young, English talent and let them rot in the reserves for 4 years on a big bucks contract then nothing will change.
  34. 1 like
    Look like a pleasant week ahead according to the GFS, only turning unsettled and cooler once it goes into low res. Next weekend could be thundery.
  35. 1 like
    GFS & ECMWF showing the Atlantic winning out this morning by the turn of the Month, Bringing unsettled and wet conditions to all.
  36. 1 like
    no...it might not even last the week, thats unlikely.as things stand, the uncertainty for only a few days ahead makes anything over a week away very uncertain. what caught my eye though was the fax charts.. note the high to our north drift and intensify towards us, that looks like it might deflect the incoming, shallow, atlantic troughs and energy into france. i believe this charts supports that kind of scenario this would be good enough news for summer lovers as theres still a strong potential for some summery weather and even a real heatwave to evolve. of course on the other hand its equally feasible that the high/s fail to build sufficiently and the atlantic could 'win' which wouldnt be good news for 'summer' lovers.
  37. 1 like
  38. 1 like
    Lol SS, it seems wings has finally hit the 'acceptance' stage. Its compelling reading and even although I had only been doing so for a couple of weeks before the last fundraiser even by then I'd realised it was worth throwing £20 at it. Sometimes you do wonder if Stu has gone a bit too far but then you sit back and watch the MSM fall for it hook, line and sinker. The more they mention Wings the more people head over for a look to see what this evil website full of cybernats is all about. Once they are there, there's a chance they'll stop and read and learn something. Probably the start of the end for the MSM and politicians being able to spout trash and lies without being challenged.
  39. 1 like
    Note that the day 5 fax ditches the raw ukmo gm and looks closer to ECM op though not a complete copy
  40. 1 like
    I think we need to protect such special areas. We also need to hurry up and find better fuels so we can stop destroying the very thing that we depend on for our survival.
  41. 1 like
    I wish the BBC etc. would stop going on about it being the earliest World Cup Final exit by England since 1958, as some might think we haven't been worse for over 50 years. We didn't even qualify for the 1974, 1978 and 1994 finals...
  42. 1 like
    not weather but have to say well done to COSTA RICA. not only for ensuring England are on the earliest flight home but for showing us that small nations in the world like ourselves can do wonderful things as costa rica from the 2011 census had a population of 4.5 million and is only around half the size of Scotland and has independence and goes things alone and with no outside help or hindrance just passion pride and belief and that's all you need to succeed in this world.
  43. 1 like
    Noticed it coming back from the pub last night at 12:30am. Still yellows and oranges to the north. Astronomical twilight at our latitude (southern Northern England) lasts from about the middle of May to the end of July. In Lerwick it lasts from 21st April to 21st August.
  44. 1 like
    Prolific song writer Gerry Goffin has died aged 75. He wrote more than 50 top forty hits,
  45. 1 like
    Your the saddo making it a global warming issue yet again. And yet again in a weather thread. Nowhere in the article does it mention global warming or permafrost and neither did I. It was simply about heavy rains and floods.
  46. 1 like
    its been officially released that cupar hit 27c yesterday and made it the highest temp of the year so far across the whole of the UK.
  47. 1 like
    Snow in Russia first time in June another regions in Russia Tyer breaks 60yr old cold record. http://www.fontanka.ru/2014/06/19/143/ Here some pictures of the recent Tver snowfall:http://loft36.de/uploads/posts/2014-06/thumbs/1403119119_1.gifhttp://loft36.de/rossiya/4094-v-sredu-v-tverskoy-oblasti-proshel-snegopad.htmlTver is not far from Moscow.http://www.ikhebeenvraag.be/mediastorage/FSImage/A0/3100/foto.jpg
  48. 1 like
  49. 1 like
    Flying into alicante on Saturday... Keep hold of the sunshine for me !!!
  50. 1 like
    To be honest ,this is rubbish. The Climate of the Uk is always variable, at any time of year. Just look at the Summer of 1995, a very dry second half of the summer, and given the 1990,s it was a generally warm decade, then came December that year ,reached its coldest temperature of minus 27.2c in Scotland for a record low. We live here in the British Isles in a "Cool Temperate" climate so its weather will always have fluctuations and variability , there is certainly no pattern yearly to our weather....
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