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Well i think it's time to say a big HELLO to everyone, i'm totally new on here but been a lover of all thing weather for as long as i can remember and been following the fascinating posts on here for a few months, some amazing information on here so keep up the fab work guys. Well today is really a wet one here, so far this morning in Worcester my weather station has recorded 17mm of rain, nothing extreme just constant light to medium precipitation, looks like were on the back edge of the current system now, then we have a clear slot coming through, just looking at the cells developing near Hastings and over the Channel, the electrical activity really does seem to be kicking in now, on there current path we might just get something here in Worcester in 3 or 4 hours time, well fingers crossed anyway. Anyway i think it's eyes to the skies and another hi to everyone.

Not very good quality, but looking east towards central London from Hounslow in west London - quite a potent cell moving over the city producing some thunder. WOW, powerful +ve CG out my window looking to the NW!

Funnel cloud near St Dominick, Cornwall yesterday. Courtesy of Ralph Bird on Twitter.

Been watching this nice little storm pop up over N London this evening, probably helped by the UHI (Urban Heat Island):

Is that your valid assessment of the model outputs? Aside from personal jibes against other members I think it would be better for all in here if we stuck to MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION. My personal opinion on things weather-wise is that we need to see some shifting of the block to our East and Northeast and then a developing slow moving Azores HP sat atop the UK scenario as hinted by some outputs might well suffice come early June. Then of course, it'll be a case of how long it'll remain near or over the UK, all pure conjecture at this range. I'll come back and analyse the outputs after these weekend wobbles have gone away. A getting better as the week progresses scenario looks likely IMHO with many waiting until the end of the week to see something relatively calmer. Not before a fair few rumbles of Thunder and deluges have enveloped vast parts of England and Wales beforehand, though. Back to respecting all members please.

Some nice convection around this evening, all a little too late round here though.... https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19881-/ https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19880-/ https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19879-/ https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19877-/

hi all tonight http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ there are still some localised heavy showers around these look likely to die out before midnight --------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow a weak south-south west flow make get a little breezy in the afternoon rainfall it looks dry most places but there is that small risk the north west may start with some light showers but should clear quite quick after by 2pm again all look dry but it looks like cloud will effect most places the best place for most sun is the far south east and eastern areas temps around 15-18 degrees ----------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night a weak easterly flow rainfall starts dry by 2am still dry but some showers moving into the far south east (see the fax where the trough is) temps around 10 degrees so not cold but will feel a shade chilly ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- monday a weak flow from the east-north east so although not strong there will be a nip in the air if exposed to the north sea rainfall still got them showers moving in from the south east before mid day these look likely to be locally heavy with the risk of some hail and thunder in places by 2 plain to see that the bulk of our region is effected by heavy showers the far north east of our region may just miss out on the heavier stuff though temps 14-16 degrees very late pm some places should dry up and some sunshine should be had --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- monday night a flow from the north east and will get windy as we go through the night rainfall rain looks likely to effect all as we go through the night especially north-north east of our region temps 10-12 degrees ---------------------------------------------------------------- tuesday quite a noticeable north east wind rainfall looks wet for all however this low coming in could be located different however some very heavy rain being shown for north of our region temps around 13-15 degrees so not cold but will feel horrid in the rain looks likely storms are unlikely in this set up although in the very heavier bursts a rumble might be possible anyway thats it for now have a good evening and day tomorrow john

Iv'e just drove to the next village and whitnessed this i will upload vids later,sky is clearing up now and can see big towers to my SE OH! and welcome MartinD.

Gavin's not posting much so it must be a thoroughly unsettled outlook

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST Synopsis Upper low/trough remains slow moving towards SW/W UK during Saturday, a shortwave trough/500mb cold pool on the forward side of the upper low will shift northeast from France towards eastern England during Saturday. A surface low will remain slow moving across SW UK, with an unstable airmass moving north across England and Wales following occluded front also spreading rain north. ... CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ENGLAND , E WALES and IRELAND ... Mass of morning rainfall along occluded front arcing north across England and Wales will become slow-moving across N England and west Wales, but brighter skies will follow the rain from the south across central, southern and eastern England through the morning and into the afternoon ... this airmass following the rainfall will become increasingly unstable to surface heating, as low to mid level lapse rates steepen with arrival of shortwave trough and its associated 500mb cold pool. GFS indicates 300-700 j/kg CAPE into the afternoon, which will support scattered thunderstorms. Vertical shear will be rather weak, so no severe weather is anticipated, however, storms may produce hail, gusty winds, and localised flooding. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Started the day in Lamar (C Eastern Colorado) with a chase target in mind of Hobbs to Carlsbad and that played out very nicely with 2 LP Supercells coming off the mountains and onto the Plains. Both were visually stunning and both were getting their arses kicked by a tornado warned storm heading northbound in the 500mb Southerly Flow. Ended the day in Carlsbad with severe storm after severe storm just to the west of town, it was here we also think we have captured an extremely rare instance of ball lightning, with 2 visual, 1 video recording and 2 Cameras picking up a fast moving green orb. Regards Paul S

Storms all missed Derby again..... .... but they didn't miss me . I decided to drive south and could see skies to my southeast were jet black with a nice inflow cloud. It turned out to be a developing storm that started over Leicester and as it passed over it had with it some gusty winds, hail and the odd flash. However, this was just the starter. As I chased the storm westwards it was clearly intensifying with flashes becoming more frequent and some IC's too. Then I arrived in a village called Abbots Bromley and it was awesome.... frequent flashes of lightning, some CG's but the most impressive thing was the rate of rain and hail with strong winds. I have not witnessed anything that heavy for a long time, it was like someone was constantly throwing buckets of water at the car with some pea sized hailstones too. Lots of flooding and the hail had actually left a light covering on grass verges. A great end to a formerly disappointing spell. I am glad I decided to chase and not stay put. I have around an hour and a half of video footage to edit now.

This looks nice to the south...

This was it some half hour ago zoomed to the max this is it now,not zoomed in i hope it holds on but i cannot see it,see what happens.

and breath,,,,,,Well that was Bostin. ...Still flickering away over staffs way atm Some good strikes have been recorded which i`ll process when i finish tapping Can finally slap my little lightning sticker on the side of my cam

No jibe intended, I do respect Gavin, I have noticed though that if our respected member posts less then the models must have a more unsettled flavour to them (i.e. fewer high pressure charts showing). Just an observation, no more no less, and yes trending unsettled much of the week I would say, a chance it dries out with a pressure rise from Friday, this by no means unanimous though and is a long way off!

One or two embedded storms in the occluded front over the uk and as it moves north and temperature rises we could see some heavy rainfall totals. The steepest lapse rates don't arrive until the afternoon from the South East though. Charts which caught my eye today. Low level wind convergence in some places, meaning winds will be turning potentially in the lowest level. Some places will have winds gently turning through the mid levels. The winds are light so its not really an indicator but its still interesting. A bit of a dry slot at 700hpa height meaning possibly a bit of cloud clearance. Dry air coming in aloft from the south east. Some divergence at the mid levels helping lift and vorticity moving north. Oh dear. Not much instability and lift. Temperatures and cloud cover maybe scuppering storm potential. Over all its a bit hard to tell although I have noticed a few weak storms over north france so there is some hope. Favoured areas for storms might be South east moving into the Midlands late afternoon. Up draughts are not likely to be that strong and wind sheer is generally low so severe storms are unlikely. Very slight risk of short lived tornado based on observations that low level cloud is not hanging about and there are indications of some wind convergence in places in the models.

Looks pretty menacing over Doncaster way.

It's deffo heading this way,i can see the wallcloud at the front now zoomed to max

Looks like poor Gordon is getting a direct hit!

That was a satisfying thunder storm! Going to have a cigarette now!

Yes that's certainly the current setup Crewe. There is some room for optimism though looking at the GFS06z mean -these 2 images for mean jet pattern and msl pressure next Sat,then following Tues.(day 10) The southerly tracking jet weakening and then the Azores high manfully trying to ridge in. ECM day 10 mean going the same way just moderate height rises around the Uk though so only a gradual improvement from the south west by the looks.

Just noticed the tag 'lightening' for this thread, it got light 6 hours ago!

Storm in York now, photo from twitter

Here is the vid clip of that flood i took earlier on

Peak rainfall rate 261.36mm an hour from the last brief shower. Very impressive.

Hampstead Storm perhaps of 1975, 7 inches of rain in a few hours. WH beat me to it! http://www.weather-uk.com/hampstead/page3.html

Iv'e just took the same pic lol!

On the face of it this is a promising looking chart with high pressure in the right areas to encourage warmth to build over the UK. Even though low pressure eventually pushes its way through there is the potential for alterations to occur before then. The jet stream is looking rather sluggish so there is the chance that low pressure may hang out in the Atlantic for longer encouraging high pressure to build.

Just had a huge crack of thunder and lightning right over the house!

NW London is no longer a thunder free zone, I have lightning too!

I am hoping they can hold their energy. Considering driving down the M1 towards areas such Milton Keynes/Northampton to meet them on the way up and see them before they provide Derby area with some light showers through the evening

Rain all morning some heavy and quite cool.As bad as forecasted unfortunately. A large band of rain now over Wales,parts of the south west,Midlands going into N.England but slow moving. The back edge to this main band now cleared the SE -i would think some quite large rainfall amounts for some of us before the day is out. Looking somewhat better tomorrow although still some showers about as the low fills only slowly.The brightest conditions coming into the east of our area by the afternoon where it looks mainly dry later. Temps maybe up to 15-16C in some spots.Not great but feeling better than the last 2 days that's for sure. Still keeping my fingers crossed for BH Monday. Some showers still showing up but more scattered. A heavier band of rain coming into SE England by evening on the 06Z model so not a washout. Temperatures around 17-19C quite widely across the region so in any sunshine it should feel much warmer. Certainly no promise of any dry days in the coming week by the looks of the latest runs.

Still disagreement about monday. Metoffice (and BBC) still going for just showers whilst the GFS wants a total washout. I must admit the models (whatever one you looks at) are showing some very heavy rain developing over France and pushing north west. Maybe there is a level of caution on how widespread and heavy the rain will actually be. Interesting developments later this week. Very dubious about the ECM pulling a UK/Scandi trough later on given the models trends to link the Azores and Scandi highs. Could very easily see a much more settled picture developing if things are favorable. I must add that I would treat any output removing heights over Scandinavia in a swift manner with a huge pinch of salt. I notice there are mid-range differences between the ECM and GFS ens (ECM follows the op to some extent whilst the GFS keeps heights to the north east for much longer)

Morning all, Yes the upper trough still modeled to remain around for much of next week before signs of it finally weakening. Stronger hints this morning that yesterdays ECM may have been on to something wrt the Azores High fancying a visit this way. GFS ens now trending that way as we enter June. before then that cool and showery cyclonic easterly to get through we can see even by mid-week how unsettled much of the UK and Europe look. so if current modeling is correct we should see a gradual improvement by next week end.

Would you Adam and Eve it? Well yes, all is not lost at Skeggy. Perhaps the ens will sort it out. The ECM ops 500mb anomaly has decided not to like the Azores ridge that much and by Monday has the cold air to the east penetrating the UK giving a completely different scenario than previous and the GFS. One should know better. Thus by Monday a low N. Scotland has taken over bringing strong NW winds over the UK. The evolution can be seen from the charts. I'm not believing a word of it. Tesco beckons.

The GEFS for a while have modelled the trough to stay with us till about the end of the month; some ops have kept it longer, but the GEFS always having a strong cluster bringing in the Azores High around month's end. This ridging has shown up in the op and control this morning; a small dissenting cluster in the GEFS keep the trough a bit longer, but a pressure build is currently the overriding signal: T180 control and op: The question is what happens next. ECM op have been playing around with the Atlantic Ridge for a couple of days now and today they topple it quickly: GEM has a weaker ridge and again the Atlantic, more slowly than ECM, overrides the ridge: Looks like UKMO at T144 have the Atlantic too strong for the ridge to build in for next weekend: NOAA 10-14 not yet convinced the Azores will develop over the UK: So a power struggle to see if we get the initial ridge for D7-8. Certainly the GEFS 0z suite now favoring this, but clearly there are some runs to go before this is resolved let alone how the possible pressure build then develops.

Morning campers. What delights from the GFS this morning? The 00z run is actually moving towards the last ECM interpretation for next weekend. The 500mb anomaly has the colder air over Biscay and N. France slipping south and the Azores ridge building and stretching over the UK by Saturday. Regarding the surface synopsis the influence of the low disappears after Friday giving way to HP situated to the north of Scotland leaving the UK in an easterly pretty dry airstream Temps best forgotten about as it certainly will not be basking particularly along the east coast. Winter woolies in Skeggy.

Timelapse of the shortening nights. Hopefully a clearer night nearer the solstice 14th May

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Not too bad from the UKMO. Infact most models are showing some sort of drier potential late next week and into the weekend

Its a case of who is going to be wrong for Monday the latest forecast from the met office says "many parts dry and bright, but scattered heavy showers developing. Rain reaching the southeast later on Monday" However GFS has rain from early morning for some in the south and south east lasting all day its not just one run which has shown this either

yes, saw the flash, long deep rumble of thunder, came from offshore Donna Nook direction. Very dark out to sea off cleethorpes right now.Regards

Not a great BH weekend for many. Sunday the best day according to the GEFS: But today and Monday rather wet; Initially for the SE on Monday, with a trough moving in from the Continent and heading west, according to the fax: Leading to rainfall totals from GFS by Monday evening: Nasty.

GFS18z another poor opener for June. Eventually boots the high east a bit.. to slap a trough to our north west with cool westerlies..

Thanks SnowJoke. I should have gone inside and got a better camera but I was playing with the kids and even they eventually stopped to watch the show: it was a spectacular cell and I had a chance to explain the structure to them. Not often you get such a good view in this country. I have attached another file which is a close-up of the front of the shelf cloud as it approached. Here you can clearly see the condensation tendrils of the rising air beneath the shelf cloud. The kids were mesmerized with this and the youngest one asked me if we were going to have a Hurricane I told her no and nor were we going to have a tornado but she was obviously also taken in by rapid motion in the cloud base. All good fun: more of the same tomorrow please.......

OK I think I can lend some credence to Vlad's story and the shelf cloud in York. I had noticed the development in the clouds and heard my first thunder to the NW at 19:30 and the convection continued to back build towards the SE very rapidly and we had thunder from two separate storms from about 20:15: one was a new one that had developed SE of the previous one and had skirted to my NW and the other developed to my SW and moved towards me. The movement was definitely to the right of the previous storms and the squall line that I have since seen on NW radar. This storm was accompanied by a very impressive shelf cloud - one of the best I have ever seen and I was pointing it out to my daughters with whom I was playing frisbee. This shelf cloud was accompanied by very rapid vertical motion and associated rotors beneath it and there were frequent tendrils of condensation beneath it. These could, at a distance, easily be mistaken for suction vortices but they were not: they were purely associated with the rapid upward motion of the saturated air beneath the shelf cloud. I have attached a piccie of the shelf cloud over Beverley but as it was taken with my mobile, it is not great. That said, it was a very impressive feature and stretched clear across a fair portion of the sky - as in a linear storm system. However, that said, that does not mean that this storm was not rotating: it clearly was and the differential lateral motion was clear to see as there was not a lot of rain associated with it (I think it was dying by this stage as the lightning was becoming very sporadic and there had been constant thunder half an hour or so earlier). This showed that the rear of the storm was moving East whilst the front was moving West and you could watch the scud make its way down one side and back up the other in front of you. So I can confirm what Mokidugway and SnowJoke have surmised and explain the observations of Vlad. I hope this helps and it certainly made up for the bust that was yesterday up here! Muff

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ tonight the odd shower around early but nothing to write home about heavy rain moving in from @3am-4am onwards temps 10-13 degrees ------------------------------------------ tomorrow one messy chart wind stays weak on a southerly however it could get breezy mid day on for all coastal regions and the far south east rainfall by breakfast rain around and some heavy effecting all by lunchtime by 2pm still raining but weaker for the far south-south east and most east coasts except the far north coast of out region all other areas likely to see heavy downpours which will clear all by about 5-6pm i expect the odd rumble where the heavier rain is but my call would be more anglia-yarmouth-norfolk areas by 8pm most areas clear but still a chance of the odd drizzle locally do not expect a lot of sun today temps around 14-16 degrees ------------------------------------------------------------------- tomorrow night still the odd shower for our northern region other than that dry and a more south west flow and winds weakening overnight temps around 12-13 degrees -------------------------------------------------------------------------- sunday a weak south westerly flow but will likely get a shade blowy in the afternoon rainfall the day starts dry but there may be a light shower to our far north west of our region but will clear quickly by afternoon should be dry for all it looks warmer around 17-19 degrees maybe cloud effecting the south coasts more today ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sunday night looks dry and not cold although chiller than of late a variable flow but not windy rain --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- monday sorry not doing until tomorrow its too close to call one thing it wont be cold anyway have a good evening john

That's just twaddle, IMO. What happened last winter will have nothing to do what will happen with the start of summer. Have they forgotten that there a season in between called spring? What lingering wetness? The spring has not been that wet. Infact, I think it is close to average for England and Wales. If the wetness of last winter didn't carry on into the spring, why should it have any effect on the start of summer?Also temperatures have been above average for weeks.