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Showing most liked content on 20/03/14 in all areas

  1. 6 likes
    A shock to the system from tomorrow morning as the cold air pushes S/E this evening bringing much colder temps for all. There are still the continued chances of snow/sleet/hail especially for the North, but even parts of Wales could see wintry weather including the spine of the UK over the weekend. The GFS continues to paint an unsettled and cool period of weather for all of Britain into April, With only the very far South sometimes becoming a little warmer due to High Pressure trying to push in, but the colder air seems to win out as in recent runs. FI looks very unsettled indeed and has done for a good few days now.
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    ECM finishes on a pleasant note with warm air wafting northwards off the continent.
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    I'm feeling pretty numb, my Dad has been fighting hard since August, had part of his throat removed in a major op including voice box, then intensive radiotherapy. Had a stroke today, the nerves in his throat are all burnt out from the radio, it's difficult to take it all in. He has the heart of a lion, and will to stay with us, for the sake of us, but it's not enough. Just trying to draw some strength from somewhere for tomorrow, to make him laugh through the reality (its what me and my sister do, we make him laugh), even though the pain is unbearable for him and us. The weather, it's been cold, with a bitter wind today.
  4. 4 likes
    Right, words such as the following are banned "Wintry,snow, frost, sleet, ice, cold, rain, wind, gales" and similar, and must henceforth be replace by "un-seasonal or un-wanted", I hope this concensus will force the actual weather to re-think its game and get back to the calm warm mild conditions it was taking up. Anyone found to be flouting these rules will be sent to either AJPS or MKSA for punishment. Still raining here (and dark spookily enough) JP I do not favour your chances
  5. 4 likes
    Kind of like my sentiments expressed fairly frequently in recent days. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79434-model-output-discussion-13th-feb-onwards/?p=2946614 To be fair, we are both clutching at straws and as ever, time will tell. The next five days look far from warm and pretty much come in at below average by day for the most part of the British Isles. Hopefully, aside from today's rainfall in Southern England, it will be a largely dry period with only brief but fleeting showers. It could get a fair bit warmer down in my neck of the woods as the week progresses but at the moment, the focus has to be on what the "cool snap" will deliver.
  6. 4 likes
    I don't remember any cold snaps during the last 4 months, indeed, some parts of the uk haven't had a single snow flake and barely a frost either..that is why I think it's noteworthy that the BBC weather summary for the weekend is :- Chilly Wintry Showers Frosty nights Sounds wintry to me...
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    Well a week's a long time in forecasting. The dominating AZ high has now disappeared next week. After a brief look the weather over the weekend which is under the influence of the low to the north of the UK, after the cold front moves through today, lying Stornoway to western Ireland at oo, quite convective with frequent wintry showers with snow further north and on the hills in the strong W-NW winds. A weak transient ridge on Monday before a slack period midweek, with the ridge to the west of the UK, but the GDPS and GFS diverge here so best left but just to say quite cool.
  9. 2 likes
    Evening all Some very interesting output this evening and plenty to consider going forward. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032012/gfs-0-132.png?12 GFS 12Z operational offers an unpleasant-looking scenario for the south and east with rain and cold winds but it doesn't last as HP forces its way in from the east: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032012/gfs-0-174.png?12 Moving into FI, pressure remains high to the north and east suggesting no Atlantic break-through for a while. ECM is quite different sending HP from the Azores up and over the British Isles to the north and thence to Scandinavia: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032012/ECM1-144.GIF?20-0 GEM keeps a more mobile and Atlantic-driven scenario with the Scandinavian HP offering only a brief interlude. I'd also caution against getting excited over 850 values in these set ups. I suspect that we will either see a cloudy and cool HP or, if we can get some drier air, some quite cold nights.
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    UKMO continues to show pressure building by mid next week though with we won't see the sort of temperatures we had last week as cooler air will be over the UK A similar picture from GFS
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    ukmo at 144 the perfect winter set up overnight though might give a surprise or 2 thats assuming these are right anway back later with the updates hope your all good john
  13. 2 likes
    I think it's simply that Russia has damaged the egos of Western leaders. They thought they had exclusive rights to 'intervene' in other countries - then when another power decides to do similar (actually nowhere near as bad) their fragile egos are damaged and they start foaming at the mouth in anger and spouting all kinds of hypocritical rubbish. Nowt more to it really, just pride. They just can't stand the thought of Putin beating them at their own game.
  14. 2 likes
    Morning all. Clear skies here at the moment and birds are finishing their dawn chorus. Best wishes to Alixzandra today, during an undoubtedly very tough time.
  15. 2 likes
    How can we enjoy a wintry spell in late March, especially after a winterless winter!! All we want now is a nice spring, a summerey summer (heat, fine barbie days and storms) and a winterey winter 2014-15!!
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    Lol Pete, for someone who apparently doesn't like all the political spin which goes on, you do a good job of spinning things to suit your political viewpoint! Currently ~3% of £1 coins in circulation are fake (about £45 million worth), and due to it's design and age it's not something that can be changed without changing the coin itself and using a harder to counterfeit design, I'll think you'll find that's the reason for the change, not just because someone in the treasury decided they wanted to chuck a load of money down the drain on making a pretty new coin.
  17. 2 likes
    Or ex-partners who don't pay the mortgage for over nine months, and then blame it on you for "your financial mismanagement" cos you were off sick from work and had your CSA liabilities cut...by the CSA. I could write a book about the way my ex has acted, she hasn't worked for ten years, claims incapacity benefit for being too ill to work yet magically is fit and healthy enough to go out partying almost constantly and live a fully active life, apart from the work bit...and then tells the kids that the job I have "isn't a proper job". I sense a need for a new thread to rant about this as a separate topic
  18. 2 likes
    Or divorced mothers who spend the child maintenance on new clothes and holidays for themselves
  19. 1 like
    ^^ Bless your cotton sucks. I'm sure you'll get your wish.. next winter.
  20. 1 like
    A couple of sferics detected recently across the northern Peak District area (between Oldham and Barnsley) ahead of what could be a decent couple of days for widespread convective showers with hail and thunder quite likely on both days.
  21. 1 like
    YAY, welcome back to lighter and longer days than the nights (my Pagan calender also pointed this out to me)
  22. 1 like
    Nice and fresh for the East, at least no oppressive weather like last week anyway.
  23. 1 like
    The way the world is now means there will be no new cold war, or at least not as we knew it in the 70's and 80's. The global economy is now far to strongly linked, so a face saving compromise will have to be found to ensure both side do not suffer massive financial losses...it's ultimately in no ones interest to let a little place like Crimea cause such global insecurity, but it definately has the potential to do just that and quickly, so expect some serious jaw jaw soon.
  24. 1 like
    Being patronized by out-of-touch know-nothing politicians. I like neither beer nor bingo! Having, due to mental health problems, been on benefit for quite a long while, I can't see how anyone in a similar position can (or should) be able to afford £8 per day on cigarettes.
  25. 1 like
    The first vessel to arrive in assisting in the search for the debris is the Höegh St Petersburg after accepting a request from the Australian Authorities The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Success is en route to the area but is still some days away
  26. 1 like
    Hopefully we at least have a breakthrough and the Aussies have found some of the plane. That location is about the max range the plane could fly until fuel exhaustion. Surface debris could have floated hundreds of miles from where the main wreckage and data recorders likely sank to the abyss. If I recall right the flight recorders can transmit through 2 miles of water so with depths of 15,000ft in that area the signal won't be picked up from the surface. In deeper water and further out to sea than the Air France plane, would be a monumental effort to find the data recorders and main wreckage. Anyway lets hope this isn't yet another false lead. Also it's really nice to see so many countries working together and voluntarily giving up their resources to look for this plane.
  27. 1 like
    I'm very much looking forward to having daytime maximums and nighttime minimums not as low as the three previous months.
  28. 1 like
    Go on http://www.gcmap.com and put in those coordinates on the photo to KUL and then PEK: 43d58m34sS90d57m37sE-KUL-PEK and have it draw the path, eerie.
  29. 1 like
    http://www.woksat.info/etcwc19/wc19-1441-b-arc.html Rapid fragmentation event over the Beaufort sea. Unlike last feb this will not have a chance to see leads refreeze well so is basically a degradation of the ice there exposing more surface area, than before the event, to the elements driving melt
  30. 1 like
    Good morning all, Alix as has been said by lots of members, our thoughts and prayers are with you during this horrific time. Massive hugs to you and yours..... A nice enough day out there today, getting colder. My poor little boy woke up feeling very sick and so did her indoors. Looks like i will have to have a half day today to go and look after them both.....
  31. 1 like
    I've just run an analysis on rainfall totals for the last 30 days (18 February to 20 March) that I collate from SYNOP observations from the UK and across the world. After such a wet winter, things have dried out very well across a lot of the UK, and for some places Its been a very dry 30 days, which although not exceptional for the months of February and March because they can be very anticyclonic, its such a great contrast from the preceding months. Hawarden in Flintshire is the top dry spot and has received just 4.8 mm of rain, and many other sites in Eastern England recording less than 20 mm of rain. Capel Curig has finally lost top spot as the wettest place in the UK coming in at number seven. The top four wettest sites are now in Scotland, with Lusa on the Isle of Skye receiving 378 mm (14.9") of rain in those 30 days. Even here in mid-Devon my gauge total for the last 30 days is only 32.8 mm. Theses figures are of course unofficial and my best guess, but I do think that they are pretty accurate. If anyone in the Met Office would like to confirm or deny this I would be delighted to hear from them. At the same time maybe they could send me the detailed rainfall statistics for theses sites, so that I could calculate a percentage anomaly! I did ask for detailed information records for just three sites in the SW of England from them, but I'm afraid that even I, with my insatiable thirst for climate data, can't afford the £4749.65+VAT that it would cost me. I reckon that I would be looking at a total bill of £243,284+VAT for the 148 sites that I presently collate, and that's why I keep doing the lottery! See blog for images: Images (1): Total Rainfall Map of Western EuropeImages (2): Total Rainfall Map of UK with tabulated list of rainfall totals. xmetman
  32. 1 like
    Another perfect day in Katschberg, warm sunshine and great pistes. Some melting taking places during the day light hours, however, due to the highest snowfall since 1975 in this location , there remains plenty of snow base to work with. The cold front expected to deliver another 50cm later this weekend with a colder air circulation in place for next week should produce fabulous conditions for those lucky enough to have a spring break or live locally. This season has just been amazing. C
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    April can always seem to be a bit of a git of a month for weather. Back in 2004, it was 23c in Geneva in early April - when I got back to Luton airport its was 7c and I had a flat tyre.
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    A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet We know there was a last voice transmission that, from a pilot’s point of view, was entirely normal. “Good night†is customary on a hand-off to a new air traffic control. The “good night†also strongly indicates to me that all was OK on the flight deck. Remember, there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress. A hijack code or even transponder code off by one digit would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike always is an option. Even three short clicks would raise an alert. So I conclude that at the point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots. But things could have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots. Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not transmitting. As for the reports of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let’s accept for a minute that the pilot may have ascended to 45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. That is an acceptable scenario. At 45,000 feet, it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable, as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall, followed by a recovery at 25,000 feet. The pilot may even have been diving to extinguish flames. But going to 45,000 feet in a hijack scenario doesn’t make any good sense to me. Regarding the additional flying time: On departing Kuala Lampur, Flight 370 would have had fuel for Beijing and an alternate destination, probably Shanghai, plus 45 minutes–say, 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25 percent in the first hour with takeoff and the climb to cruise. So when the turn was made toward Langkawi, he would have had six hours or more hours worth of fuel. This correlates nicely with the Inmarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion. The now known continued flight until time to fuel exhaustion only confirms to me that the crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean. There is no point speculating further until more evidence surfaces, but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign pilots who well may have been in a struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
  38. 1 like
    Yes Anyweather, also parts across the spine of the UK could see more Snow than they have had all winter.. With even a pinch from the East on the 24th ​
  39. 1 like
    It looks like a traditional Marchfest with colder wintry weather giving way to quieter conditions at times, Changeable to Unsettled looks like the formhorse with some settled interludes in between! And as well as that, it looks like the second half of March will be colder than the first half. Frosty conditions more likely in the coming week , than most folk have seen all Winter. It can only happen here
  40. 1 like
    I see benefit supported people often in the pub when I walk past each day, no idea how if they are on what is supposed to be basic life support money that they can afford that, I get to visit the pub maybe two or three times a month if lucky and I work sometimes six or seven day weeks to attain that. I have no SKY or similar either, just wonky Freeview (as I have an old aerial it only picks up some stuff at best)
  41. 1 like
    That's because you see things from a westernised viewpoint imo. You haven't got to like Russia or approve of their actions in Crimea, just as they didn't approve of western intervention in the Balkans, Iraq, Afghan, Libya etc, etc, but the world simply wasn't interested in listening to an alternative view/strategy. Therefore it should come as no real surprise to see Moscow now acting in a similar unilateral way, with backing from Beijing now also starting to emerge - the other power that no one was prepared to listen to when the new wave of western imperialism was in full flow. Very much a case of 'you reap what you sow' emerging now imo, with Moscow and the west set to stare down the proverbial barrel at each other for some time to come...and perhaps not just over Ukraine either.
  42. 1 like
    I've got nobody on ignore! I like frosty's posts.
  43. 1 like
    ...The improper use of there, their and they're....I agree, by the way!
  44. 1 like
    Daylight from tomorrow (18th) is longer than darkness here in Darlington
  45. 1 like
    Do you ever read back some of this pompous stuff and think how it looks?
  46. 1 like
    DECEMBER- Xmas and all that OCTOBER - I Iove that time of the yr,the falling coloured leaves,Halloween etc. Its also my birth month. NOVEMBER - The anticipation of xmas and the coming winter. JANUARY - The hope of cold and snow although more often then not my hopes come to nothing FEBERUARY - Same as JAN. SEPTEMBER - Anticipation of the coming of Autumn proper and the sun becoming that more gentle in the sky, daylight length becoming somewhat shorter. AUGUST - The end of summer can be a lovely time of the yr. Autumn geting close. MARCH - The Autumn/Winter season is over which i can find a bit depressing normally(although this yr i admit im happy about it for once due to the winter we did have). Spring least fav season. JULY - By the time we get to July im really starting to long for the shorter days and return of autumn,dont like it too warm. But im glad to be past june and the days getting shorter again. APRIL- Same feeling about this month as March really. But can be a nice time of yr ,every season does have its charms. MAY - One of the most boring months of the yr imo. But can be a pleasant time of the yr. JUNE - What feels like the near constant daylight does my head in.
  47. 1 like
    A summer along the lines of 1975 will do me just fine.
  48. 1 like
    Apologies if this video has already been posted but I thought this was brilliant Drone Flies into an Active Volcano… This unique footage is only possible because of recent advances in drone technology. A manned helicopter could never get this close to an active volcano, with lava pouring out of vents at temperatures up to 2,192°F (1,200°C). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-shWVW1UBc#t=64 http://www.dronehire.org/blog/drone-flies-into-an-active-volcano
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    Knocker: may I be so kind enough to draw you to this sentence "We know that (i) and (ii) is not always the case." This doesn't say that I think it is *never* the case of which, it appears to me, to be the predication of the entire post. Thus, whilst many valid points are made, the post must in the vast majority be rejected as an example of faulty reasoning/debating since the starting (faulty) assumption you make of my stance is incorrect. Also known as a straw-man argument. Your sentence that sets up the straw-man is "but I think your explanation rather narrowly focused, so much so it fails to really cover many climate papers that are published." The rest follows quite reasonably, but by maintaining the assumption it means it is begun as a non-sequitor. The point being that it is necessarily narrowly focused so it doesn't cover many (the vast majority of) climate papers, and particularly, so the point is properly made, only covers those papers where Type I and Type II hypothesis errors are made of which I gave a concrete example. Your opening paragraph says "To be sure some may fit the scenario you have painted, probably in response to repeated bleatings from non scientists that CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas which of course is completely unethical" which in turn, seems to imply that you agree that some subset of science fit the criteria I set out, and therefore, given the limited sense of which I gave examples, you agree with it - so, of course, a straw-man argument is therefore entirely necessary as the predication of the post. Incidentally some climate scientist terrible ethics existence are guarenteed by the Guassian distribution as are the existence of ethics par excellence. Edited: tidied up some rather messy sentences!!
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