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  1. 23 likes
    That is a really poor analogy, Gary. Weather enthusiasts are always going to be more interested in the rarer extremes in the same way that train spotters would be more interested in rarer engines. No one wants to see death and destruction but we all like to witness the power of nature up close.
  2. 14 likes
    any chance we could wait and see what actually happens before tearing the MetO to pieces?
  3. 11 likes
    Here's my step by step summary for each of the area's looking to get hit by the very strong winds, South West of England 9pm Sunday to 2am Monday The low moves over Wales giving very strong winds to the South West of England. The high res NMM model shows gusts between 60 to 70mph which is similar to what the Met Office say in the image below, Heavy rain will also move in from the South West bringing 6 to 12mm, South Central of England 11pm Sunday to 4am Monday The NMM model shows gusts along the coasts to reach over 75mph. The Met Office show the same thing as well. Below I've included two images in one that shows 12am and 3am on Monday for the gusts, Rainfall for Southern Wales, SW and S England between 6 and 10mm, South East of England 12am Monday to 7am Monday The NMM model shows strong gusts even for inland parts around 50 to 60mph. Coastal parts 68 to 72mph. The Met Office also go for gusts being strong inland some places will get over 50mph gusts and along the coasts nearing 70mph, The rain moves east giving 6 to 10mm, Eastern England 1am Monday to 8am Monday NMM Model shows 48 to 56mph gusts but the coasts could see a bit higher 60 to 70mph is possible. The Met Office agrees with these wind speeds, Flooding - For those concerned the image below shows what the NMM 24 hour rainfall totals are. Western Wales, SW England and NW England have high totals over 25mm, Just to add a wee note well done to the NAE model for catching onto the low center and track before the other models. NAE Yesterday vs the GFS, Today against the GFS, Stay safe overnight to all those in the path of the very strong winds.
  4. 10 likes
    I don't think there is an analogy needed, I doubt anyone is wishing for death, however I guess if something is bearing down on the UK most weather enthusiasts want to see the 'spectacle' of what the weather can bring, so whilst no one wishes death & destruction, the UK is located in a place where these events present themselves whether we like it or not... S
  5. 10 likes
    It's now hammering it down in North Pembs Local convenience store (10 metres away) open until 10pm, could be a late visit, a bar or 2 of some dark chocolate and some home brew espresso to accompany. About to have Boeuf Bourg, mash and garlic fried courgettes. I always find that when a storm is coming you need a decent retro 70s dinner party special. Black forest gateau anyone?! AS
  6. 9 likes
    I have to say, this is the most exhilarating thread I have ever encountered on here, pure manic, pure action, I love threads with flow to them but that also include technical expertise, obviously weather wise not as good as heavy disruptive snow, I just hope we have an 'upcoming severe winter weather' thread with this many posts in January or Feb because we will have done good, this storm is going to be quite severe but not an absolute stonker anymore I don't think.
  7. 9 likes
    It is a difficult call, early night or early morning? Although I think it might be tricky to go to sleep early. I'd really like to hear the wind this time as I managed to sleep through 1987 - not the whole year obviously - just the storm:)
  8. 8 likes
    Makes me laugh how Southerly biased the media really are, shameful. They think the only place in the UK is London....
  9. 7 likes
    Latest thoughts, the storm not as bad as it could have been: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78270-sunday-monday-storm-latest-from-the-netweather-team/?p=2819106
  10. 6 likes
    thanks for that thoughtful insight into what is happening Nick, also to Jo for her inputs into this area. Again I recommend folks to read this thread when really interesting and difficult to predict weather is around the UK.
  11. 6 likes
    afternoon all is everyone ready for later? I've had a little sleep in prep for staying up tonight. Camera batts charged, DS for the kids charged, phones poised to charge later, flask out and it looks like a Yankee Candle retailers in here. I.AM.READY! Really excited but have a little niggling feeling of worry too. Is it safe to venture in the dedicated thread yet? i felt like I needed anger management after going in there a few hours ago.
  12. 6 likes
    Wow 2 thunderstorms in 2 hours!!! And the rain was immense!
  13. 5 likes
    http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations looking at pressure on here and wind maps i would not be surprised to see this shift north again hard to call but keep watching as winds are still likely to be strong for us
  14. 5 likes
    The storm isnt forecast to develop much until this evening, and then develop rapidly. It's a tough one to call. Still possible that winds of 60 to 70 mph will affect much of the south - whilst these winds may not seem too severe, combine them with wet ground and trees in leave. Also, with leaves blowing off trees its likely to block drains and lead to enhanced flooding, more-so than may normally be expected.
  15. 5 likes
    I'm with you on that one, will be heading off towards Chesil beach to watch the action at some point. As you have tried to point out, it is possible to watch the might of Mother Nature without being reckless at the same time!Those that venture onto the beach itself however are idotic beyond belief!
  16. 5 likes
    I can't comment on the October 1987 storm apart from what I recall seeing on the TV news. More recently a powerful storm affected the central belt on January 2nd 2012, and like in the 1987 storm, a 'Sting Jet' developed. I recorded a barometric pressure of 960mbar (adjusted to MSL) at 09hr. I've never seen so many trees down in my part of Fife, especially in the nearby forestry. Roofs were blown off houses and my garden shed ended up in the neighbours garden. I think there was a gust of 112mph on Blackford Hill, Edinburgh. It was up there with the '87 storm.
  17. 5 likes
    Matt on BBCnews just said he's just had meeting with Chief Forecaster and no change from 24hrs ago with track of storm.
  18. 4 likes
    stay safe KEEP CALM AND DRINK BEER good advice me thinks
  19. 4 likes
    995.1 was reported at 7pm 992.3 was reported at 8pm So 2.8mb, I just rounded it up to 3. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/observations/Seven_Stones_table.html
  20. 4 likes
    UK Met Fax shows the centre at 18Z of 988mb and 48.5N 11W so on line of the predictions from Wednesday-Thursday, not sure about the depth as I have not kept charts for this time.N as a VERY rough guide it will continue to travel in the direction of the warm sector isobars UNLESS it deepens very markedly. If it did that then it would turn somehwat left of that track.
  21. 4 likes
    Melt down, Chaos as tubes flood... Cars crashing into each other.. Buildings falling down.. Sorry... That's how London usually copes with snow etc? :/
  22. 4 likes
  23. 4 likes
    All of today's strong winds are just the weather fronts and squall lines ahead of the storm system, so it's a totally separate area of low pressure but the energy being created by the current low will give fuel for the secondary low to feed on. I remember the October 2000 storm, like this weekend the whole weekend was quite windy in the build up to it, then there was the main event which again was on a Sunday/Monday night strangely enough.
  24. 4 likes
    There is no certainty yet of course, but it is is beginning to look as though anyone, say, 25 miles or more inland but more especially away from this far SE corner might not have too much to worry about with this low. The thing is, just a very small minor adjustment further south could mean that those of us on the SE coast who look like drawing the short straw for this wretched low, could miss the worst of the winds as well. In a way it rubs in that there has been a last minute adjustment on the more macro scale (ie not just the larger part of the region but the country as a whole) but it is hard not to mask IMBY feelings when it becomes the case that the one small area not to escape is your own It maybe that the 90mph threat has gone down here which is certainly something to welcome - but 70 to 80mph is still too much and another 10mph or so off that would make quite a further difference in reducing problems and disruption. Afterall 50 to 65mph gusts are quite common on coasts and far from unusual and actually cause little or no problems in these parts
  25. 4 likes
  26. 4 likes
    Well I have now also removed the large wooden bench from the patio into the garage, thankfully I had a good clear out in the spring and can now easily fit it in
  27. 3 likes
    I did warn about taking the apparent computer plot too literally. It is prone to this sort of error, best to take a general movement over at least 3 hours rather than watch it from hour to hour. No storm can move quicjly in different directions. The predicted track shows a movement towards the entrance to the Bristol Channel but wait until the 18z Fax is issued for a accurate position on it.
  28. 3 likes
    Isn't the NAE one of the models the MetO trust the most? People should be careful what they wish for anyway, wonder if those on here saying its a downgrade will be happy if it 'upgrades' and the roof of their house gets damaged or a tree uproots and destroys your car? Stay safe guys, I do love the extremes weather throws up, just please people do not do anything stupid to endanger yourself and/or others.
  29. 3 likes
    But today's strong winds/strong gusts are nothing to do with the approaching storm, they're basically very blustery showers. The storm is still forming and quite some distance away.
  30. 3 likes
    Those posting observations, that is great, be good if another thread could be setup with purely this type of thing, might allow us to spot how things are developing compared to how models saw things. 4mb seems minimal but could be the difference in 20 mile Northern track of low.
  31. 3 likes
    re how much it has deepened and the position take care as it is a computer generated chart and you are best using it to track the overall movement and depths rather than from hour to hour. At times you may need to make some kind of subjective adjustments to what a particular hour shows.
  32. 3 likes
  33. 3 likes
    Can guarantee a deep depression moving from Charlton to Dartford around 5pm, if Charlton lose this afternoon. Any idea what I should wear, rain coat or tea shirt for sitting in the stand at the valley?
  34. 3 likes
    I'd like you to be right, but I am not optimistic this time like I usually am. I think the writing is on the wall for us in the most south eastern and perhaps also eastern most parts of the region for when the storm exits. I'm waiting for confirmation and then I will get myself organised with a few things. In an ideal world I would head inland to escape it, stay somewhere overnight with a good meal and a few vino's and then come back again tomorrow when it is all over! Edit: Reverse psychology worked and its still amber. At least for the time being anyway..
  35. 3 likes
    Spent an enjoyable afternoon watching a new presentation by a local amateur group of the story of the Rye Lifeboat disaster of 1928: http://theatricaleastbourne.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/marys-boys-open-auditions-theatre.html It contained many references and songs about the weather and the sea, in particular a song entitled 'there's a storm coming'. I wonder how they organised that?!!!! More on the Rye lifeboat disaster here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/50521-the-1928-rye-lifeboat-disaster/
  36. 3 likes
    Another set of posts removed - please don't respond to those who appear to be just looking to court controversy and provoke reaction - just hit the report button and we can deal with it
  37. 3 likes
    Can't believe some are moaning about a downgrade as a home and car owner I would welcome it. Morning all bit blowy out there this morning woke me and the dogs up anyway. Let's see what today's updates bring.
  38. 3 likes
    But they haven't failed. They have accurately reflected the best model output. They have not put out a red warning precisely because of the chance of a 24hr-out backtrack. I simply don't understand these posts about egg on face/failed/poor performance/loss of credibility.
  39. 3 likes
    The next potentially stormy period being picked up towards the end of next week into the weekend? Into FI, the GFS is very interesting with the jet displaced to the S and discrete pressure rises to the N of the UK. Doesn't look traditionally Novemberish to me. Looks very November 2009 i.e unsettled but without the traditional strong vortex over Greenland.
  40. 3 likes
    If this update is right, the Met office are going to be massively discredited :-( If this update is correct I'll give up forecasting for good!
  41. 2 likes
    They seem to think Cardiff will be hit by the 'storm' tonight on BBC.. er no it will be further south
  42. 2 likes
    GFS18Z shows a more open wave at 3am Monday as it crosses England.Not phased with the jet streak at that point. As the forecasting team have already suggested it looks like some hours later before it hits the cold exit of the jet and deepens somewhat-out in the North Sea.
  43. 2 likes
    Would say that southeast is still under the gun but timing and evolution may spare southwest from damaging gusts. In particular IOW to Kent and inland to south London could experience wind damage overnight, in association with possible line squall formation around 0200-0400h. Feel more confident that northern France, Belgium and Holland could see more widespread wind damage. This is not looking like a busted forecast with the sharp pressure falls and earlier gusts to 115 km/hr in Brittany. However it won't be quite as bad as some forecasts had implied. Track will also probably spare most of Midlands from damaging wind gusts, northern half of East Anglia could be grazed later but Essex may still be in play. Will be around all night to watch as my time zone seven hours behind for the week. Key will be rapidly developing cold front around Portland to Cherbourg after midnight. Watch for that and where that heads, wind damage may follow.
  44. 2 likes
  45. 2 likes
    Chris - read Ian F's latest tweets - it's going to be bad in our area for a few hours in the early hours. Even a 10 second gust of 60mph will cause damage.
  46. 2 likes
    Depends on your location im having just a bit of wind and rain other people are gonna have a bit more than that.Stay in its safer why would you risk your life and others if you got washed out to sea.. comman sense thats all thats needed. Why not sit under a massive tree ..no thought not.
  47. 2 likes
    As with any passing deep low pressure system, even if tonight's 1 doesn't live upto the hype there are usually secondary lows brewing behind it especially as the Jetstream would appear to be particularly active at the moment and we are experiencing unusually mild / boarder line humid temperatures at the moment!
  48. 2 likes
    http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ If anyones up expect something stormy soon Its got really warm as well
  49. 2 likes
    Reading some of the posts on here one would think it's all being made up. Well, i only take note of the pros and the v best on NW - so my take reading IanF's posts and a few others is that it's going to be severe. The doubters are all guesswork merchants in my eyes.
  50. 2 likes
    For cold lovers wishing for frigid conditions on a par with Dec 09 and Nov/Dec 10 during this upcoming season you may take comfort from the following quote which came from Mark Vogan, a name that's synonymous with all things weather related. It was in response to a recent online comment re: the present very active Jet Stream. " I've posted about the change in feedback of warm waters as season progresses. Should be mild, wet Nov, similar to 09. We both know what followed.."
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