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Just for a giggle, here's my Xmas forecast. ....

Yep there are very encouraging signs that later this month it could become much colder with a risk of snow, potentially better than october 2008, Ecm 12z shows a wintry pattern evolving towards T+240 hours, I hope this trend continues, : -)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013100818/gfsnh-0-168.png?18 Well ive missed todays model discussions - however the models are firming up on the retrograde block - & most of us did expect it to land, & now that shortwave I highlighted in the models is responsible for the colder & colder air progressing very close to the UK- A chart for Mid October with this expanse of cold is a sight to behold- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100812/ECM0-240.GIF?08-0 If I was given that I would say mid to late November in terms of 850 temps¬ So we look to be a month ahead on cold, snow expanse will grow & we have an outside change ( maybe 5%) of snow falling in England within 10-12 days... Worth a punt @ 20/1 Its not ideal weather & certainly not like what we had today- buts its what we have & very unusual at that! S

Both the ECM and GFS this morning are showing a bit more interest for those of a cold persuasion, we had a few runs where the GFS wanted to start moving the core of heights further to the west. They do agree on keeping a chunk of the PV to the east and ne but as yet we don't see a clear trend to transport that cold into the UK, but the ECM and GFS throw a bit more more energy under the block as can be seen by that shortwave energy coming off the main troughing to the west. I think we're in somewhat of a holding pattern here, cold building to the ne, troughing to the west, heights still holding to the north and nw, as yet we don't see the favourable cut back in the jet. Whilst that ridging holds to the north you always have a chance of getting some early season cold in from the ne/east as long as the models don't want to trend to a west based negative NAO,so that's something to look out for in future runs.

ecm has started cold

Hey guys, just thought I would do an October animation of snow and ice build up. Here's the 1st to the 8th.

Conor, if you managed to track down that chart and manage to post it then you are halfway there to finding the info to answer your own question. As a learning exercise have a go at answering your own question. Do you think it would be cold and if so, why and what do you think the surface conditions would be?

Models in fair agreement this evening over the mid-term prospects i.e. out to around Tuesday and that is for the high pressure just to our norhwest to topple SE ushering in an easterly fllow for southern districts by the weekend and calm conditions further north,before the high is forced on a SE path thanks to energy off the atlantic injecting its force NE, but it looks another slow protracted affair, with low pressure to our west becoming rather unstuck as it attempts to cross the country throwing front after front NE, so a possible very wet spell of weather as we move through next week for NW parts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong ridge develop over the western seaboard of the atlantic next week and we could easily be in cut-off low territory again as low pressure just sits to our west/southwest. So we may well have to endure another mild spell of southwesterlies later next week, but the arctic profile will remain ripe for another northerly shot shortly thereafter - thanks to the position of the polar vortex and jetstream.

Like the look of this:

hi all tonight see the cooler air dig in overnight rainfall looks cool and wet early clearing most areas overnight heavy showers expected east of the region early morning but thundery would be surprising some low single number temps where the skys clear tomorrow a strong north east wind temps somewhere around 10 degrees rainfall looks wet for all after mid day tomorrow night still wet chilly but not too cold as rain will keep temps up not a nice evening either way friday a strong and chilly east-north east wind temps somewhere around 12-14 degrees rainfall still rain and some heavy bursts the further west you are the better chance of some dryer bits friday night a strong easterly wind heavy rain around still temps holding up due to the cloudcover dense fog maybe an issue overnight and first thing in the morning update the rest later overall a rating of yuk comes to mind

Hello everyone! Yes I am alive and kicking, and ashamed by my lack of activity here. But as we head slowly into the winter season, my activity will slowly increase again, just like the mid-stratosphere temperatures. And about the notorious GWO composites: I made around 70% of the work in around 3 weeks. Then I had some other stuff to do, and postponed the whole project, thinking I have a good system to extract the data and I can finish it at any time. Well, I got a new computer in between (saved all the data of course ), but the first problem was the new Excel version. And the biggest problem was, that I last worked on the project somewhere in March. So when I looked into the data last week, I had no idea how to finish it. I basically forgot my data extraction system. It was a huge mix of different functions which worked great, as long as I knew how to actually use it all together. But do not be sad, for I will finish the project. I always finish something that I decide to finish. It will only take a bit longer, because I will basically have to create a new system. But first I will have to interpret the finished data, because it is still in data form, and needs to be properly coded into files that will be uploaded to NOAA servers and plotted. Just have some faith in me, if there is any left at all for me. Ok, since this topic is about snow coverage, this is my post where I posted some correlations I made, between Oct-Nov snow and stratosphere temp. and U-wind. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/?p=2446929 And some accumulated snowfall forecasts: Best regards.

Very bright at points today , blustery, blue skies and brilliant sunshine. Nice view on Satrep from the 0900 report with the Cold Front traversing the country on the jet axis. Eumetsat shows the Cold Maritime Airmass piling down from the Arctic. (Cold represents the Red Colour in this Image with the warmer airmass Greens and Yellows). The Beeb ran a story on UK airmasses over the weekend with a useful graphic, rPm - returning Polar Maritime excluded, so have attached the Meto document which may be of interest. No._10_-_Air_Masses_and_Weather_Fronts.pdf Higher resolution image from earlier today shows the classic pepperpot convection. Fax out to 0600 Thursday, the high neatly compacted to the west and ruler straight Isobars down the East Coast Brrrr

I'd agree that we'll be on 15.0C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at 14.4C to the 10th (8.5) 14.0C to the 11th (10.0) 13.8C to the 12th (11.8] 13.5C to the 13th (9.9) 13.2C to the 14th (10.0) 13.0C to the 15th (10.2) 12.8C to the 16th (9.8] If we are on 13.0C to the 15th, for the remainder of the month we'd have to average: 11.1C/day to reach 12.0C 9.2C/day to reach 11.0C 8.6C/day to reach 10.7C (81-00 average) 8.4C/day to reach 10.6C (61-90 average) 7.7C/day to reach 10.2C (1901-2000 average) 7.3C/day to reach 10.0C 5.3C/day to reach 9.0C 3.4C/day to reach 8.0C Given that the coldest final 16 days of October was 4.0C back in 1895 and 1926, we can effectively rule out anything below 8.5C. Something a little peculiar, is that the top 5 coldest last 16 days of October all occurred between 1880 to 1926...

First proper wintry showers of autumn 2013 coming in over the Firth from the north. Was 7.8c at 6.30am currently 6.0c. Calves this morning all sleeping beside the south facing sunny side of a dyke in the old long grass almost hidden, very comfortable looking.

Read this in the Times… “Lady-bird, lady-bird, tell to me,What the weather is going to be;If fair, then fly in the air,If foul, then fall to the ground.†The most puzzling behaviour of all is that of the orange ladybird, which can be identified by its 16 white spots on an orange body. In late September and early October the ladybird chooses one of two sites to spend the winter. If it selects a small crack on a tree, or some other sheltered refuge, at least 3ft above the ground and away from the wind, then the winter will be mild. But if the ladybird chooses to overwinter on the ground sheltering amongst dead leaves then the winter will be harsh. Quite how this choice of shelter could predict a coming winter is a complete mystery, but apparently the ladybird’s success rate is highly impressive. Funny thing is was about 10 years ago, I couldn't pick any medlars because they were a Ladybird hotel. They'd all climbed into the space around the top of the fruit. This year they aren't there and I've seen Ladybirds hiding under shrubs in the garden. Uh-oh.

Posts 448 through to 450 above, illustrate perfectly why it’s so difficult to please everyone with what in my view are already pretty fantastic NH synoptics, this early in the season. Yes, we can pick holes in the fact that somewhere else gets the action first but as I said yesterday, without baby steps we might as well not even bother chasing dream scenarios of much snow and ice. For any newbies, take a read of some of the more informative posts at the start of this thread or even delve into last year's archive, because, believe me, a strong October build-up of snow and ice over the near continent is potentially the key to something rather special down the line.

It is ..... Simply stunning scenery and clouds ....

Blasphemy! Looks like the ECM 12z op run was a bit progressive with its day 10 ideas when compared to the ensemble mean. op run.. ens. mean

Well i'm only 17 so i've experienced mostly cool/cold autumns and winters.

It's X rated Blue Movie John

Definitely taken this with a pinch of salt. Atlantic overcooking much? Stereotypical GFS!

As classylady was posting, the bonfire season is almost upon us in Sussex and right through the next month there will be torchlight parades and fireworks in many towns and villages. They really are great events but can be a bit spoilt if you get a wet evening as it's best to get a clear chilly one where you can warm up by a street vendor selling hot chestnuts, doughnuts or chips and than hang about outside a pub with a nice pint, a glass of mulled wine or a lovely dram/spiced rum! Fingers crossed for some dry and frosty days and nights

See post #404 - My local weather service now giving out warnings of "From Wednesday afternoon locally severe conditions above 1000-1200 m due to decreasing temperature and transition to snow." Ok, it's all happening above 3000ft but it's a start and there's a lot of Norway above 3000ft

Explorers have discovered that the caves are so large that thick cloud and fog hangs in the upper parts of the underground natural wonder http://uk.news.yahoo.com/tongzi-cave-system-china-weather-system-large-biggest-chongquing-province-robbie-stone-photographer-114402648.html#ksQPl8k Really worth looking at. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2441450/Er-Wang-Dong-cave-China-huge-weather-system.html

To be fair i always smile at Gavin's posts because he has the balls to post from his own perspective which is looking for mild and high pressure. There may be some very cold CFS runs but there's also been a few mild ones recently. Hard to see the wood from the trees really. Last year I saw a graph with the temperature plots from each run, not seen it posted this year?! For what it's worth my gut at the moment says an early winter turning to mild mush after Christmas

And, as they're all for about three months' out, they're about as much use as a chocolate fireguard...

Pretty dull, cloudy and warm today. We've had no rain, but the wind has now picked up, and the temps certainly feel cooler. Just been for a walk, and with the wind blowing, and leaves rattling around in the dark it feels pretty spooky in the non lite places. Wish it was Halloween tonight, it would of made the perfect spooky evening, and I could of scared my children even more😄, whilst they were out 'trick or treating' knocking on the neighbours doors. The Day After Tomorrow springs to mind there JP😄

Ooo, yes please.

Look at that wall of cold air advancing from the NE. Almost looks like a bluearmy

saturday still a gusty north east wind temps somewhere around 13 degrees still wet and some heavy watch for flood warnings starting to pop up as noted before if the rain is correct on these charts the areas effected will be quite a few for our neck of the woods

All i see is that Arctic high maintaining a split in the vortex. Very good signs indeed. this time last year, there was no Northern blocking to be seen whatsoever!

Well it depends on your definition of cold , cold enough for snow ? Yes, in the main , maybe the south east having a sleety mix , but with -4 850's covering the majority of us , or indeed colder the further north/west you go With deep thickness values , then I would say that away from the southeast quarter , most of what falls out of the sky would have a very wintry nature to it. Coner . . . There's a fantastic learning area on hear . Along with a "will it snow " guide that will help you asses charts and get a better understanding on how it all works , it gets pretty frantic in hear in the winter time as you will find out !

You can get a mushroom species identification book, can't go wrong then if you use common sense. Parasol mushrooms and Porcini/Ceps are easy to identifiy and can't really be mistaken for anything poisonous. Not seen any of the red white spotted ones yet (Fly Agaric... Amanita muscaria), need the weather to turn a bit colder I think, maybe this/next week. Eat those though and you could well be seeing elves. They sure are pretty though. Here's one I photographed the other year For parasols look in well drained areas in open heathlands, grassy areas. Porcini mushrooms are usually found around oak trees. The Fly Agaric above are often found around birch trees in chilly weather after rain.

Kitchen sink coming down this afternoon, hail, heavy rain,strong to galeforce NW wind and currently 6c. Large beech limb broken off blocking one of the farm tracks. Spoke to a neighbour who says there was wet snow falling at Glenferness in the heavier showers

Steaming through the Devon countryside today .... ...cooler and a bit breezy but it's stayed dry so far and most importantly we are relaxing !

Just a quick reminder. Episode 2 of ' The Great British Year ' is on BBC 1 at 9pm tonight. This 4 part series follows the seasons and tonight it is the turn of Spring. Last weeks 1st episode was Winter, and is still available on BBC I-Player. It showcases what the BBC do best, and is a thoroughly enjoyable look at the seasons. Best of all it is not in the least bit 'dumbed down'. Enjoy.

Unless you wake up having wet yourself, through becoming incontinent when drunk!

Is this a wind up?!

Just about to leave to get the Eurotunnel to Calais to meet my German friends on the Belgian coast. The weather has conspired to be unhelpful with a washout expected tomorrow and the rest of the stay into next week looks cold with showers from time to time. Oh well - its not anything one can do anything about. Have fun all of you!

A video of the storm on 4th of October during the night filmed looking to the southwest. NOTE: The sound quality is very poor! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoJGFmmXWaQ Sorry it was posted so late.

Very interesting model watching at the moment. Will we see a holding block. I have latter half being cooler [cold shot looks much colder] and very active with LP track / jetstream shifting south. Well up to FI the Atlantic is getting held at bay but will that change into last 3rd of Oct?. It is nice to see the change gather pace though and to a fairly beefy switch too for time of year and ECM went for it much sooner than the GFS.....a good start. BFTP

Here we go the media have picked up this weeks cool down............. Time to get out your winter coat: Blizzards, sleet and frost forecast for this weekend as Britain set to be colder than St Petersburg http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2449841/UK-weather-Blizzards-frost-weekend-forecast-Britain-set-colder-St-Petersburg.html

Snow spreading west along the northern edge of Siberia. The latest value: 6,276,942 km2 (October 8, 2013) http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm And just a little dusting on the Munros..... http://www.winterhighland.info/

more Ice joins up with russia another box ticked!

Its easy to see that the models have indicated a colder spell, just how cold depends on which post one reads. To newcomers, the Net Wx search for cold be it October or any month out to May has begun early this year. For quiet and objective posts and as unbiased an assessment as is possible I think you might find the so called technical thread of more help. Of course you may enjoy the roller coaster of searching for cold on ANY model that happens to show it, in which case ignore this post and enjoy. The realistic chance of snow on low ground away from the far north is of course, at this time of year, pretty slight. There is nothing in the reliable time frame to suggest this not being the case this year. If one wants to search for cold then no doubt there can be a lot of if this, if that, then this could happen, a bit like my golf really. To me the anomaly charts, now back to about normal service after their early autumn holiday, consistently show a 500mb flow suggesting returning Pm air rather than the probability of any direct Pm, other than any brief 24-36 hour outbreak, let alone Am (Arctic Maritime air). To those thinking that an easterly this time of the year will lead to deep cold and copious snow showers off the N Sea are I am afraid living in a fantasy world. sorry to be a bit of spoil sport but I have had a couple of pm's asking just what is likely so I've put those comments down in here.

if these are correct expect the jet to take a dive south towards the last week of the month gfs ensembles looks like cold brief warmer bit then 21st on cooling down again that is a lot of rainfall showing on there cold not the problem with these (well maybe cool at night) flooding would be though

Hi Surrey, sounds like she could not be in better hands, keep close to her, your strength will work wonders. Still mild and calm, walked for an hour at lunchtime today, it's great to have a slightly quieter spell at work so I can get out into the fields and choose any path that takes my fancy and pick whatever is in the hedgerows as I pass by. I am quite looking forward to it cooling down and my getting the fire going this weekend, proper coal burning away and well seasoned logs added to the mix. Trouble is, once the fire is roaring I feel compelled to keep it going and then almost impossible to leave it to die. Which means I often in the winter wake up at 5am on the sofa with a shovel at my feet, coal dust in the air, a fire that has gone out and is looking at me in an accusatory way, and hair that smells of a burnt forest. It'll be even worse this winter with the Ashes at some late hour from Australia which will just encourage me to keep adding fuel to the flames. AS

You've got to also remember that Christmas is 11 days earlier than it was up until the mid-18th Century - all the old traditional Christmas carols and traditions included snow and cold frosty days... So their Christmas Day would have been our 6th January, when snow and cold is unremarkable - even a week and a half makes a big difference. It was caused by the Pope Gregory changing the Julian Calender to the Gregorian one in 1752, because Easter was moving into early summer when it was supposed to be in Spring.

Few more familiar names appearing at the bottom of the user list now.. welcome back.. Also a good few lurking about who haven't posted yet. Please join in and say Hello, we are a welcoming bunch, you have found the best place on the Net for banter about Scottish Weather.. Looking ahead to the next couple of days, here are a selction of charts from the NetWeather NMM suite. Mainly from the very short range NMM 6 run. First up sees a decent swing in the 850Hpa Temps, approx 9-12 degrees colder from current conditions. Also a wee magical patch of sub 528d air that will give the highest peaks a sugar coating of snow. Ensembles from a few locations around Scotland all demonstrate the changing airmass. Couple of Faxes from Meto, show the cold moving down from the Arctic, with a decent trough visible. The 48 hour fax shows the direct Northerly flow. Massive variance across the British Isles with the 0degree isotherm, and also temps dropping overnight later in the week. It's going to feel a helluva lot fresher in this Wind too, as per the Meto Fax charts a direct hit.. A wee teaser for Winter then and enough of a breeze to get trees stripped back some more. Roast Dinner and Red Wine season beckons. Enjoy !